XAUUSD: One last pullback possible, but bullish long term.Gold is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.979, MACD = -4.490, ADX = 14.647) as once more it got rejected on the 1D MA50, struggling to close a 1D candle over it since December 12th 2024. Technically though, it is on a slow rise on the bottom of the Channel Up, potentially a bottom formation like June 2024. Even though one last pullback like June 26th 2024 is possible, the long term trend remains bullish as long as the 1D MA200 holds. As the July rally did, we aim for a little under the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 2,850).
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Commodities
Bearish drop?XAG/USD is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 30.16
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 30.68
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 29.53
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Waiting for Clarity: Insights on Oil and the 70 Put OptionsLet’s talk about WTI oil for a moment.
In the upcoming monthly expiration series set for January 15, there’s some interesting action happening with the 70 put options. Traders aren’t just dumping these puts; they’re actively reselling them, and there are definitely buyers stepping in. What’s even more intriguing is that the same 70 puts are being picked up in the next options series as well.
Now, if you look at the charts, it seems like prices have finally broken out of that range they’ve been stuck in for a while and are gearing up to move higher.
With this kind of sentiment in play, I’m going to hold off on making any buys for now and wait for some clearer signals before jumping in.
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Another PIPTASTIC day on the charts today with our analysis playing out to perfection!!
Yesterday after bouncing off the retracement range we stated that 2611 was a weighted level and as long as we see no lock below 2611, we should see a continuation of the bounce into completing the Bullish gap at 2661
- This played out perfectly with our bullish target 2661 being hit today completing this range. Lovely catch from yesterdays update.
No lock above 2661 confirmed the rejection. We will see play between 2661 and 2633, until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2661 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2661 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2681
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2681 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2711
BEARISH TARGETS
2633 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2633 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2611
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2611 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2593
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2593 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2570 - 2551
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
WTI reaches key resistance zoneCrude oil prices have been stealthily rising over the past couple of weeks, but now is the real test as prices have reached some important resistance levels.
As per the chart, WTI faces a band of resistance from its bearish trend line, 200-day moving average, and prior support and resistance, all converging around the psychologically important $75.00 level.
Specifically, the resistance range comes in between $74.55 to $77.50. Yesterday's bearish price candle was the first sign of a potential reversal, although we haven't yet seen any downside follow-through.
Support comes in around $71.50, the base of the recent breakout. Below that, $70.00 is the next downside target, followed by the recent lows.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
GOLD → Price buyback, local bull characterFX:XAUUSD is in a narrow channel, in consolidation, which complicates intraday movement, but nevertheless traders have a chance for possible growth. There is a lot of important news ahead that may give traders a chance.
Despite the strong intraday movement in gold, we can say that the price is standing still in the range of 2600 - 2660. Quite a difficult place for the price due to the huge density of volumes, levels, tails... Traders are refraining from new directional bets ahead of the release of crucial data on ISM Services PMI and JOLTS job openings in the US.
After a strong fall the price was bought back and returned to resistance 2648 - 2650, most likely further struggle will be for this area. The falling dollar broke the support line, thus giving an advantage to gold.
Gold and the dollar are already starting to feel Trump's power and are reacting to his statements as quickly as they did during the last period of his presidency....
Resistance levels: 2649, 2664, 2674
Support levels: 2632, 2610
Until the price leaves the channel 2600 - 2665, most of the movements will not be very clean (nature of price movement inside consolidation). At the moment the emphasis is on 2649. If the bulls will keep the defense above this zone, then in the short term the price may show growth to the local maximum
Regards R. Linda!
CRUDE OIL TO HIT $160?! (UPDATE):It's been a few months since I've done an update on my Crude Oil analysis, as Oil prices have been stagnant & consolidating. But in the past week & a half we've seen a huge push to the upside, with Oil now sitting at a 3 month high!
Currently up 700 PIPS (10.40%) in profit from our support zone. Long term I still remain bullish from a technical standpoint. Also, we already know from a fundamental standpoint, the puppet Donald Trump will be used to worsen geopolitical situations globally, weather that's in the Middle East or with China & Russia.
Gold bulls win?
At present, the daily price of gold is in an obvious triangle convergence range, and the price is constantly approaching the breakthrough point. From the trend, it can be seen that the recent price fluctuations fluctuate around a wedge area formed by an upward trend line and a downward trend line, and the price is currently running near a higher position, close to the key resistance level.
From the recent wave of sharp declines (high $2790 to low $2537), the price has tested the Fibonacci key retracement level many times. Among them, the 0.5 ($2663.94) and 0.618 ($2693) levels have become the current important resistance levels, and the gold price is testing its breakthrough possibility.
Previously, the price experienced a long period of box consolidation ($2584 to $2644), and then gradually broke through the upper edge of the box and continued the upward trend. The current price is approaching the upper track of the wedge again (near $2719), indicating that there may be upward momentum in the short term. If the price successfully breaks through the upper rail, it may launch an attack on the previous high ($2790), or even open up more upside space.
If the price encounters resistance and falls back near the upper rail of the wedge, it may retest the lower support area ($2615 or $2584). The lower trend line and the Fibonacci 0.382 level ($2634) will also play an important supporting role. Once it falls below, it may trigger a deeper correction.
Strategy Recommendation
It is currently recommended to pay attention to the price breakthrough of the $2660-$2690 range. If it breaks up, you can consider following up with long orders and set the target at $2719; if it fails to break through, you need to be alert to downside risks. In the short term, you can look for turning point selling opportunities near $2660-2650.
In general, gold faces directional choices in the short term, and investors need to operate cautiously in combination with technical patterns and market dynamics.
Gold Outlook: Consolidation Phase with Breakout SignalsGold Analysis
Gold Prices Rise by Over 1%
Gold prices climbed more than 1%, reaching $2,660 per ounce on Tuesday. The rise was supported by a weaker dollar as traders grappled with uncertainty surrounding President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff policies amid conflicting signals.
Additional support came from China's central bank, which increased its gold reserves for the second consecutive month in December.
Traders are now awaiting key U.S. labor data and the FOMC minutes for further insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook for the year.
Technical Analysis:
Gold maintains bullish momentum, particularly if it can stabilize above the resistance level of $2,665. Currently, the price is consolidating between $2,653 and $2,665. Building volume below $2,653 could reinforce a bearish trend toward $2,636.
However, a 1-hour candle close above $2,665 would signal a bullish move toward $2,678 and potentially $2,706.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 2665
Resistance Levels: 2678, 2690, 2706
Support Levels: 2653, 2636, 2623
Trend Outlook:
Consolidation Between 2653 and 2665
Bullish trend above 2665
Bearish Below 2636 and 2653
GOLD BULLISHHello everyone, I hope you are doing well, I'm here to provide an idea of GOLD.
As you know yesterday gold was running crazy, It has touched the price 2616 and then flown to the moon.
Now gold has fall, so that i'm looking for buy setup, and i have found the buy setup there.
Now I will gonna take buy positions.
ENTRY POINT : 2640.83
STOPLOSS AND TARGET : 2633 SL and TP will be 2663.80.
Stay connect for every update.
"Gold Technical Analysis: Bullish Breakout
Based on the chart, here is the analysis:
1. **Resistance Area:**
- The green shaded zone above the current price marks a potential resistance zone. This is where sellers may become active, halting further upward movement.
2. **Breakout Confirmation:**
- The price has broken above a horizontal resistance zone (marked by the black line). This breakout is a bullish signal, suggesting potential continuation to the upside.
3. **Bullish Momentum:**
- The recent upward move shows strong bullish momentum, as seen in the series of higher highs and higher lows.
4. **Target Zone:**
- If the price continues upward, the next significant resistance or target is likely within the green zone, where the price may face selling pressure.
5. **Key Levels:**
- Support: The broken resistance at ~2650 could act as a new support if the price retests this level.
- Resistance: The green zone around ~2665–2675.
**Potential Trade Plan:**
- **Buying Opportunity:**
- If a retest occurs near the breakout zone (~2650), it may offer a good entry for a long position with a target toward the resistance zone.
- **Selling Opportunity:**
- Monitor price action around the green zone (~2665–2675) for rejection signals or a potential reversal setup.
Would you like me to update this analysis based on any specific targets or time frames?
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-7-25 : Counter Trend BreakawayToday's pattern suggests the markets will move upward (counter-trend) in an attempt to move into the RALLY, RALLY, RALLY phase closing out this week's price action.
I suggest traders prepare for what may become a fairly explosive upward trend over the next few days - but stay fairly cautious as unexpected news may derail price trends a bit.
We are still moving into the early 2025 liquidity flood - where traders who pulled capital away from risks in late 2024 are starting to move back into the markets. We are also moving into Q4:2024 earnings data (in about a week or so). So there are still lots of opportunities for big trends.
I'm watching to see if the markets attempt to move to new All-Time Highs again - which I believe is a highly probable outcome.
If my research is correct, we are going to move into that RALLY, RALLY, RALLY phase very cleanly today and tomorrow.
Gold and Silver are moving higher again - which is great to see. Today is a RALLY day on my Gold Cycle Patterns. Could be a great opportunity for skilled traders in Metals this week.
Bitcoin has reached that DUAL FLAGGING zone. In other words, stay cautious at this point.
Volatility will likely increase for Bitcoin and I believe the most likely outcome will be to attempt to move back downward after reaching this dual flagging zone. We'll see what happens next.
Remember, we are just starting 2025, so you have lots of time to try to identify opportunities throughout the year. Your goal as a trader is to find the best opportunities to BOOK PROFITS. The more you are able to BOOK PROFITS, the more likely you are to GROW YOUR ACCOUNT.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
GOLD: Dump and pump from last Friday?Hello traders and welcome back to my channel, please support my analysis if you find it helpful for yourself and don't forget to miss out further charts, suggestions, observations and updates!
Gold looks like potentially going to complete a dump and pump started on Friday, but to understand better the logic behind this template, let's analyse the full week!
The previous Monday and Tuesday established the high low of the week, in fact Monday is the opening range into the new week and Tuesday the initial balance.
Wednesday, the market broke out, triggering long breakout traders in the market, closing out of balance (long traders are now potentially driving this move)
Thursday, from Asia session I could see a strong bearish move joining the market, closing the week out of the opening range and as well as a first red day, which is a potential short signal if a sell high opportunity is identified.
Monday, during the Asia session I saw a great short setup going to pulling back into the previous opening range high, retesting the same area in NY session and triggering as well short breakout traders in the market.
Note and focus on NY session, it placed a strong swing high and swing low which creates our box where money are above and below that boundary.
Today, the market consolidated inside this box, breaking higher just before the beginning of NY session.
What's my thesis?
Obviously I never predict the market but I let it to setup first, however my main thesis is currently LONG, because it can be a clear weekly template of breakout/pullback/continuation above the previous Monday's high, which is a template that I saw many times during the past months!
To take advantage of this template, I would like to see a market dumping down at least into the London low, consolidating till news release at 10am NYT for a buy low opportunity, back to the previous HOW.
Regarding the short, do not forget that Friday was a first reda day, yesterday it placed as well a lower low and it could preparing for a further move down if the market today will place and locked a HOD, consolidation for a session scalp pump and dump.
Before news release, I will be updating this chart!
Gianni
GOLD in 2025. The Main Fundamental Trigger Explained
Many of you asked me to provide long-term analysis for Gold
and my predictions for 2025.
Gold remains in a strong bull run since 2019.
The first trigger for a massive bullish rally was Covid .
The end of lockdowns made Gold finally stop the rally.
The second strong bull run was triggered by the initiation of a "Special Military Operation" in Ukraine by Russia in 2022.
The rally become even stronger with the third bullish wave being caused by the start of Israeli Palestinian conflict.
The main drivers that push Gold prices up are the wars, complete uncertainty and the expectations of further escalations.
However, the US elections and promises of Trump to stop the wars and bring peace made Gold stop growing and initiate quite a remarkable bearish rally in November.
Now the market awaits if Trump will manage to deliver his campaign promises .
If his administration finds a way to stop conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, Gold will start falling to lower structure levels.
Failure of Trump to bring peace and the escalation of geopolitical tensions in contrary will trigger another bullish rally to new all-time highs.
Pay attention to the actions of Trump after the inauguration and let's hope for the best!
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Gold Analysis==>>Second Attack!!!Gold ( PYTH:XAUUSD ) attacked the Support lines and Support zone($2,639-$2,630) as I expected but failed to break them ( Fake Break ).
Gold is currently moving near the Resistance zone($2,670-$2,653) and within the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
According to Elliott's wave theory , Gold seems to have completed 5 bearish wave s and is currently completing upward corrective waves .
I expect Gold to attack the Support lines and the Support zone($2,639-$2,630) again and most likely succeed in breaking them this time .
⚠️Note: If Gold breaks the 50_SMA(Daily) and Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , we should expect Gold to rise further.⚠️
⚠️Note: At most, you can keep the Short position up to $2,668.⚠️
🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 15-minute time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
USOIL Will Fall! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 74.10.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 72.60 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
How to Analyze a Stock ? Key Questions to Ask Before You InvestShould I invest in this stock ? This is a common question investors face many times
But where do you begin? What should you look for, and what pitfalls should you avoid?
This guide will walk you through the essential steps to analyze a stock, focusing on the business itself rather than the stock chart. Since earnings per share (EPS) growth drives returns, it’s crucial to understand how revenue growth and margin expansion contribute over time.
Before buying any stock, ask yourself these six critical questions:
1.Company: What does the business do?
2.Economics: How does it generate revenue?
3.Opportunities: What are the potential upsides?
4.Risks: What challenges could it face?
5.Financials: What do the numbers reveal?
6.Valuation: Is the price justified?
1.What’s the Business?
- Mission: A clear mission drives long-term success. For example, Google’s mission, “to organize the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful,” is simple yet powerful. Does the company’s mission align with a growing trend or an unmet need?
- Leadership: Effective leadership, especially from founder-led teams or CEOs with a strong track record, often outperforms. Assess the team’s vision, execution skills, and employee approval ratings.
- Products: Are the company’s offerings essential, innovative, or part of a growing market? Consider their uniqueness, potential obsolescence, and innovation history.
2.How Do They Make Money?
- Revenue Mix: Is the company’s revenue diversified or reliant on a single product or customer? A diverse mix offers stability, while over-reliance can be risky.
- Unit Economics: Examine profitability metrics like gross margin and operating margin. Where does the bulk of profit come from?
- Key Metrics: Identify metrics like annual recurring revenue (ARR) for subscriptions or gross merchandise value (GMV) for e-commerce that best reflect the company’s performance trends.
3.What Could Go Right?
- Market Growth: Does the company operate in a growing industry, such as AI or renewable energy?
-Innovation: Look for ongoing R&D and a track record of successful product launches.
-Moat Expansion: Assess the company’s competitive advantage, whether it’s a strong brand, proprietary technology, or cost leadership.
4. What Could Go Wrong?
-Market Disruption: Is the company prepared for sudden changes, like new technologies or regulations?
-Competition: Strong rivals can erode market share. Analyze customer reviews and competitor benchmarks.
- Moat Erosion: A shrinking competitive edge—such as declining pricing power or poor retention—can signal trouble.
5.What Do the Numbers Say?
- Profitability: Check revenue growth, gross margins, and net income for consistent improvements.
- Solvency: Assess the balance sheet for debt-to-equity ratios, cash reserves, and financial stability.
- Liquidity: Positive and consistent cash flow indicates sustainability and growth potential.
6.Is the Price Right?
- Valuation Metrics: Use Price to Earnings (P/E), Price to Sales (P/S), or other relevant metrics depending on the company’s growth stage. Compare these to peers and market standards.
-Investment Horizon: Longer investment timelines can justify higher valuations if growth potential exists.
-Focus on Fundamentals: Valuation matters only if the business is strong. Avoid being tempted by low prices without underlying value.
By breaking a company into these six dimensions, you can turn complex decisions into actionable insights. Start with the business fundamentals, evaluate opportunities and risks, and finish by assessing valuation.
What stock will you analyze next? Let’s put this framework into action now
CL1! Scenario 2.1.2025 The price has currently broken through one of the main resistances and we have oil at 73 and then I have two scenarios: either the price does not break through the support at 72.5 and goes up, but I would like to see an sfp below the low, if we were to consider a short, I would like an sfp above the high, then there would be a potential entry.
GOLD Will Move Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 2,644.615.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 2,625.451 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
GOLD SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
GOLD uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 2,592.930 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the GOLD pair.
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