THE KOG REPORT - NFPTHE KOG REPORT – NFP
This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price.
Quick report this week with the key levels to look for during the rest of the day. We had the 2630-35 region hold price down, giving us the move into the lower target regions completing all the bearish targets for the week, so now we’ll look for a similar move, or, simply stay out of it.
We have the level of 2670 still active from the KOG Report, maybe they have held back all week to swoop that level, so for that reason, that is where we will look to for a RIP and possible short attempt.
Circled below is a key level, 2625, any attempts at that region with rejection can give that push upside, unless broken. We did say yesterday a break of support will take us into those lower levels of 2610-15 which has already happened, so a similar move can not be discounted for a potential bounce from below.
Due to the range, the movement can be extreme, so please be careful, remember the trade comes after the event, let them move price to where they want, look for a clean reversal and you can capture the reversal.
RED BOXES:
Break above 2650 for 2661, 2664 and 2670 in extension of the move
Break below 2625 for 2615, 2610 and 2695 in extension of the move
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As always, trade safe.
KOG
Commodities
Don't be surprised with a $50 oil price next yearThe waves show the direction, and if this daily candle closes significantly lower than the previous low, and the red countertrend line breaks, we may witness a nice fall in the oil prices.
Of course, the OPEC may step in, but the trend is a trend.
Let me know what you think in the comments!
Stay Patient, Stay Disciplined!
Don't be surprised with a $50 oil price next yearThe waves show the direction, and if this daily candle closes significantly lower than the previous low, and the red countertrend line breaks, we may witness a nice fall in the oil prices.
Of course, the OPEC may step in, but the trend is a trend.
Stay Patient, Stay Disciplined!
GOLD Will Move Lower! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 2,637.581.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 2,613.313.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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Gold Short: Capitalizing on Sunday Open RejectionGold has shown a strong rejection of the $2,650 price area after retracing to the Sunday open levels, aligning with the prevailing higher time frame (HTF) bearish trend. This trade is engaged to capitalize on the downside potential as the price fails to break the dynamic resistance at $2,650. With the support of the HTF momentum and a clear rejection, the trade setup focuses on targeting the lower support levels in the $2,610-$2,600 zone while maintaining a disciplined approach to risk management.
Technical Analysis:
Daily Chart:
• Price struggles below the mildly bearish 20 SMA.
• Both 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their bearish slopes, confirming the downtrend.
• Momentum indicators remain neutral, supporting the absence of bullish reversal signs.
4-Hour Chart:
• XAU/USD trades below the flat 20 SMA while hovering near a directionless 100 SMA.
• The 200 SMA around $2,690 acts as dynamic resistance, pushing prices lower.
• Indicators are aligned with bearish momentum, suggesting further downside.
• Support Levels: $2,626.70, $2,611.35, $2,598.70
• Resistance Levels: $2,643.30, $2,655.00, $2,671.55
Fundamental Analysis:
The US Dollar’s strength continues to weigh on Gold prices, driven by robust macroeconomic data:
• ISM Manufacturing PMI: Revised upward to 49.7, better than expected, supporting USD strength.
• Wall Street Sentiment: Mixed trading as geopolitical tensions between the US and Russia persist.
• Upcoming Events: Markets anticipate key US employment data, particularly the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, which could bring additional volatility to XAU/USD.
Trade Management:
• Entry near $2,645 with clear rejection signals.
• Stop Loss: Placed above $2,659 to manage risk efficiently.
• Targets: Initial take profit at $2,622, with a potential extension to $2,610.
• Risk Management: Adhering to the bearish trend, the trade will be closely monitored, especially as the US Nonfarm Payrolls data approaches.
• Risk Management: Trail stops as price moves lower. Monitor market reactions closely, especially around major support and resistance zones, and adapt as Nonfarm Payrolls approach.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
USOIL SENDS CLEAR BULLISH SIGNALS|LONG
Hello, Friends!
USOIL is making a bearish pullback on the 1H TF and is nearing the support line below while we are generally bullish biased on the pair due to our previous 1W candle analysis, thus making a trend-following long a good option for us with the target being the 68.67 level.
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XAGUSD - Silver will return to its upward trend?!Silver is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. If the trend line breaks and continues to decline, we can see the demand zone and buy within that zone with the appropriate risk reward. Stabilization of silver above the resistance area will provide us with the path for silver to rise to the supply range.
The CIBC bank forecasts that silver prices will average around $35 per ounce in 2025, maintaining this level through 2026. By 2027, prices may slightly decline, averaging $34.50 per ounce.
Analysts at the bank expressed a bullish outlook on gold and silver markets, citing preparations by global markets to deal with the unpredictable policies of Trump’s administration. Last month, the president-elect threatened to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada if they fail to tighten border controls. Additionally, he warned over the weekend that a 100% tariff might be applied to the BRICS bloc if they develop a settlement currency to bypass the U.S. dollar.
Analysts stated, “We anticipate that higher tariffs, the potential for trade wars, lower interest rates, and deregulation will all support rising gold and silver prices.” They added, “We believe that Trump’s tariff policies could provoke retaliatory measures against U.S. exports, thereby fueling inflationary pressures.”
Performance of Gold and Silver in 2024:
• Gold has surged by 29% this year. Following a 3.4% increase in October and a 5.2% gain in September, gold prices declined by 2.5% in November.
• Silver also rose by 29% in 2024. However, after advancing 4.3% in October and 7.9% in September, silver prices fell by 5.2% in November.
Throughout 2024, gold has repeatedly hit record highs, breaking price ceilings 39 times. However, silver has yet to return to its previous bull market peak of $50 per ounce. While this may be disappointing for silver enthusiasts, historical trends suggest that silver often lags behind gold during bullish cycles, only to later outpace gold explosively. This lag presents an excellent opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on potential gains in this market.
Meanwhile, the market’s primary focus remains on the release of today’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report and potential signals from Federal Reserve officials ahead of the central bank’s communication blackout, starting at midnight on Friday.
The most significant signal so far has come from Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve Board member. Waller expressed willingness to support a rate cut in December, but noted that this decision depends on forthcoming economic data. He specifically highlighted the NFP report as one of five key indicators under consideration but cautioned that these figures might be distorted by factors such as October’s strikes, post-storm economic activity, and the upcoming elections.
Currently, markets estimate a 70% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its December 18 meeting. This likelihood has dipped slightly from 75% earlier this week but has remained unchanged since Monday.
In addition to the NFP report, scheduled speeches from several Federal Reserve officials—including Bowman, Goolsbee, Harker, and Daly—are planned for Friday.
XAUUSD - Gold Awaiting NFP!In the 4H timeframe, gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 and has exited its ascending channel. If gold re-enters the channel and stabilizes above the drawn downward trend line, we can witness the continued rise of gold and limited visibility of the channel ceiling. Within the supply zone, we can sell with appropriate risk reward. The failure of the support area paves the way for gold to fall and you can buy in the demand zones.
The U.S. nonfarm payroll report is set to be released today, drawing the full attention of markets. It is expected that nonfarm jobs will increase by 200,000, primarily due to the resolution of the Miloten hurricane and the conclusion of Boeing’s strike.
However, recent charts indicate a declining trend in nonfarm employment over the past few years, confirming the weaker labor market conditions that the Federal Reserve has noted during its rate-cutting cycle. Even if the headline figure exceeds 200,000, it is unlikely to prompt a change in policymakers’ stance. The unemployment rate is also projected to rise to 4.2%.
Markets may look for meaningful insights from today’s employment data, but they are unlikely to find anything substantial. Overall, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates again in December.
Forecasts for job growth range between 155,000 and 275,000, compared to just 12,000 new jobs in September. The unemployment rate for this month is anticipated at 4.2%, slightly up from 4.1% last month. Last month’s precise unemployment rate was reported at 4.145%, while the labor force participation rate stood at 62.6%.
In terms of wages, annual average hourly earnings growth is expected to slow to 3.9%, down from 4% last month. Monthly wage growth is forecasted at 0.3%, slightly below the previous month’s 0.4%. Average weekly working hours are expected to remain unchanged at 34.3 hours.
Key data released so far include:
• ADP Report: 146,000 jobs added compared to 150,000 in the previous month.
• ISM Services Employment Index: Declined to 51.5 from 53, still the second-highest figure of the year.
• ISM Manufacturing Employment Index: Rose to 48.1 from 44.4.
• Challenger Job Cuts: 57,727 compared to 55,597 in the previous month.
• Philadelphia Fed Employment Index: Increased to 8.6 from -2.2.
• Empire State Employment Index: Rose slightly to 0.9 from 4.1.
Recent trends suggest that the labor market is generally weakening, though temporary improvements are evident in some areas. JOLTS data paints a similar picture, with most Federal Reserve members convinced that the labor market is cooling. However, a single NFP report is unlikely to alter this broader trend, particularly given the influence of hurricanes, elections, and the end of Boeing’s strike on the numbers.
On the other hand, President-elect Donald Trump's pro-business policies and "America First" approach have pushed gold prices lower ahead of the new year. However, one Canadian bank believes that gold's upward trend is not over yet.
While markets may need time to adjust to Trump's economic policies, CIBC analysts remain bullish on gold's future in 2025. Investors should not be surprised by the gold market's current woes, the analysts said, as a similar trend was seen in 2016, during Trump's first term. The Bank of Canada has reiterated its summer forecasts and stated that Trump's impact on the gold market will ultimately be positive.
According to analysts, “It may take several seasons, but inflationary pressures will eventually show. Although this issue may challenge the trend of interest rate cuts, we believe that wealth preservation and the desire of non-US investors and central banks for safe assets will continue to support gold prices."
Peter Schiff, chief strategist at Euro Pacific Asset Management, believes that the price of gold will not return below $2,000 an ounce, and that the price of gold is likely to double or triple. He noted that gold fluctuated between $1,500 and $2,000 from 2011 to 2024 and has now reached higher levels without resistance.
Schiff emphasized at the New Orleans investment conference that the performance of gold this year shows the strength and high potential of this valuable metal. He also predicted that as the price of gold rises, more investors will be interested in stocks of mining companies.
Meanwhile, BlackRock emphasized in its recent report that the Federal Reserve does not appear to have entered a typical cycle of interest rate cuts. The analysis shows that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates further in 2025.
This reduction will occur in a situation where economic growth will slow down somewhat, but inflation will still remain above the target. Therefore, the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates below 4%, and rates will remain above pre-pandemic levels.
GOLD → NFP may release price from consolidationFX:XAUUSD declines to 2615 and forms a false breakdown. Traders are confused as they wait for NFP and are not preparing for premature action yet, waiting for economic data...
The dollar is having some trouble indicating it is ready to enter a deeper correction phase, but now it all depends on NFP and the Fed. Metal is still squeezed inside the 2660 - 2615 flat. A false break of the support forms a pullback to the liquidity sides
If the NFP is below the expected 200K, the gold may go up, as it will indicate the continued cooling of the US labor market and encourage the Fed to cut rates further. But, strong NFP data could put pressure on the decision to pause the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, which could put negative pressure on the metal....
Resistance levels: 2655, 2660
Support levels: 2636, 2605
Technically, the NFP may influence the price to leave the channel, which may be accompanied by a strong impulse. The price direction depends on the immediate actual employment data....
A break of resistance will trigger a rise to 2690
A break of support will trigger a fall to 2580
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
PALLADIUM has started a massive 3-year rally. Don't miss it.We first published this Palladium (XPDUSD) chart exactly 4 months ago (August 06, see chart below) and it is the appropriate time to update it now:
As you can see, we gave the buy signal exactly on the market bottom which was in fact a Triple Bottom. The rebound broke above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), a Resistance that was unbroken since the week of October 10 2022, and technically confirmed the uptrend and the trend reversal from bearish to bullish. The pattern that is carrying this uptrend is a Channel Up and in November in fact, it respected both the Higher Highs and Higher Lows trend-lines.
As mentioned on that August analysis, Palladium formed the very same Channel Up after both previous major market bottoms (Bear Cycles) since the December 2008 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis. All Channel Up patterns (the current is the 3rd one), started after the 1W RSI formed Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows, which is a Bullish Divergence. They broke out once the 1W RSI made the first pull-back on the Arc shapes you see on the chart, indicating a normalization on the initial buying pressure at the bottom.
Obviously, this is a recurring technical cyclical pattern, formed on a 6-year Cycle. With the use of the Sine Waves we can accurately display the previous bottoms (January 11 2026 and December 01 2008) and to a fair extent the tops (we can argue that those are formed on the 3rd Lower High (red circles) on the 1W RSI Lower Highs trend-line).
Needless to say, we still expect Palladium to reach at least the 'Russia-Ukraine war peak' at 3450 by mid 2026 - mid 2027. If you want to go beyond that, technically, it can extend as high as $4780, which would represent a +451.52% rise from the recent 2024 bottom. The previous two Bull Cycles rose by +533.56% and 451.52% respectively, which also represents they high degree of symmetry within Cycles.
In any event, the current levels remain a unique buy opportunity on a 3 year horizon if you are a long-term investor.
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XAUUSD H1 Short From S/R TP BEARS 2565 USD🔸Hello traders, today let's review 1hour price chart for gold. Recently
price action compressed into rising wedge and then broke down
currently re-test of breakdown zone in progress.
🔸Strong resistances at 2655/2665 USD, shorting from resistance
is the recommended strategy right now, limited upside.
🔸Recommended strategy bears: short sell from overhead resistances near 2655/65 SL 2675 USD TP1 2600 TP2 2565 usd. usd fixed stop loss for this entry at 2675 usd, swing trade setup may take more time to hit target. good luck traders!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
GOLD dropped and recovered quickly, new news from Korea, NFPOn the Asian market on Friday (December 6), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery suddenly increased sharply in the short term. Gold prices have increased sharply from an intraday low of nearly 2,613 USD/ounce and are currently trading around 2,643 USD/ounce, close to the technical level of 2,644 USD.
There was news that South Korea might impose martial law for a second time, which quickly increased market risk aversion and stimulated a sharp increase in gold prices.
According to the latest report from Yonhap News Agency on Friday, South Korea's opposition parties may seek to hold an impeachment vote on President Yun Xiyue at 5 p.m. local time on Saturday.
South Korean media JTBC reported on Friday that the Military Human Rights Center held an emergency press conference at its office in Mapo district, Seoul in the morning, following the instructions of superiors, commanders The squadron commander's superiors could convene an emergency press conference before the 8th.
The Military Human Rights Center emphasized that this was Yoon Seok-yue's Sign that martial law would be reintroduced.
South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue suddenly declared martial law on the evening of December 3, with the reason of eliminating pro-North Korean forces and protecting constitutional order. The South Korean National Assembly voted late at night to pass a resolution to "remove martial law", and Yoon Seok-yue finally announced that he would "remove martial law".
However, there are rumors that senior South Korean military officials have been asked to be on standby until December 8. This is something the market is eyeing as a sign that Yin Xiyue will declare martial law again.
In a headline on Friday, Yonhap news agency quoted the South Korean opposition party as saying lawmakers were on standby after receiving multiple reports of martial law being declared again.
Gold is considered a leading haven asset when the market receives risky impacts from geopolitical developments (especially in places closely related to the US).
On this trading day, investors will receive the release of the US non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to cause major fluctuations in the gold market.
US nonfarm payrolls jobs are expected to increase by 195,000 in November. Gold could rebound stronger on more disappointing jobs data, and come under some pressure ahead of the tabular data Non-farm wages are optimistic.
Today (Friday), the United States will release the November nonfarm payrolls report. Surveys expected 200,000 new jobs were added, but only 12,000 jobs were added in October, the lowest increase since December 2020.
The US unemployment rate is expected to increase slightly to 4.2% in November, from 4.1% in October. Additionally, average hourly wages in the US are expected to increase 0.3%. month-over-month in November. Annual wage growth will likely slow from 4% to 3.9%.
A report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that the number of job vacancies in the United States increased again in October and the number of layoffs decreased, indicating market demand for workers are stable.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after gold fell but fell short of its weekly target of $2,606 – $2,600 sent to readers in the weekly edition, it rose rapidly to retest the 2,644 technical level. USD.
Temporarily, gold's recovery does not give it enough conditions to increase in price as the Relative Strength Index is still operating below 50.
Along with that, the EMA21 is the closest resistance currently and as long as gold has not broken the price channel, it still has the main trend during this time which is down.
Once again gold falls below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level which will be the best condition to head towards the weekly target area at 2,606 – 2,600USD.
Meanwhile, expectations of a new bearish cycle will be opened once gold falls below the original price of 2,600 USD with the target then around 2,591 USD in the short term, more than 2,538 USD.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold remains bearish with notable points listed as follows.
Support: 2,634 – 2,606 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,644 – 2,657 – 2,663USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2690
→Take Profit 1 2679
↨
→Take Profit 2 2674
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2584 - 2586⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2580
→Take Profit 1 2591
↨
→Take Profit 2 2596
GOLD--> Consolidation. Which Direction Will Momentum Take?Hello dear friends, Ben here!
Gold prices continue to consolidate sideways within a familiar range as the market eagerly awaits a new catalyst to determine the next directional move. What lies ahead, and what scenarios could unfold?
Meanwhile, sellers are holding back as they await key developments, including comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, U.S. employment data, and the CPI report, to gain insights into the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently assign a 74% probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming policy meeting. However, theoretically, this remains uncertain, and the market may remain in consolidation until new information emerges.
On the technical side, gold may build bullish momentum to test critical resistance levels, which could potentially lead to a decline afterward. However, if the price breaks below the 2636 support level and consolidates beneath it, bearish pressure may emerge earlier than expected.
What are your thoughts? Share your insights, forecasts, and questions—let’s explore the ongoing dynamics of XAUUSD together!
Gold prices continue their downward trend, falling from $2,710.
Gold prices today continue their downward trend, trading around $2,642.
This decline comes as the market braces for the release of the highly anticipated U.S. labor report from the Department of Labor, scheduled for Friday. According to a Bloomberg survey, nonfarm payrolls for November are expected to show an increase of approximately 200,000 jobs.
However, remarks made by Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell on Wednesday in New York also had a significant impact. Powell emphasized that the U.S. economy is in "very good shape," with risks to the labor market diminishing. This has raised concerns among investors that the upcoming jobs report could outperform expectations, potentially weakening gold’s outlook further.
From a technical perspective, the focus is on the descending wedge channel. If sellers manage to defend the resistance levels within this channel, the downtrend may persist. The next projected targets for the sell-off are $2,605, $2,547, and $2,471, respectively.
Share your thoughts, opinions, and questions—let's discuss what’s unfolding in the market!
Breaking support and following the downtrendGold's 1-hour moving average continues to cross downward to form a dead cross, and continues to diverge downward, so the downside space of gold will be further opened, the gold oscillation range is broken, and a new low this week is created. Gold begins to weaken, so the rebound of gold is an opportunity to continue to be shorted. After gold rebounds to around 2634, it begins to fall directly under pressure. Then the Asian session gold rebounds around 2634 and continues to be shorted at highs
First support: 2613, second support: 2600, third support: 2588
First resistance: 2633, second resistance: 2642, third resistance: 2657
Trading strategy:
Sell high and buy low according to the resistance range.
THE END OF THE GOLDEN ROADGold had failed to break above 2700s resistance area and is showing bearish pressure making LHs and LLs. Currently it is a bit choppy but is overall still bearish and is failing to break above 2650s price area. Next target is 2500s price area for the continuation of current trend.
GOLD / Consolidating Between 2653 and 2637 !Gold Technical Analysis
The price is consolidating between 2637 and 2653, with stability above 2653 which is bullish toward 2661 and 2678,
Otherwise, as long as trades below 2653 will trade at the bearish area, closing 1h or 4h candle below 2637 will support bearish toward 2624
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 2653
Resistance Levels: 2661, 2678, 2706
Support Levels: 2637, 2625, 2612, 2585
Trend Outlook
Uptrend: Bullish momentum is expected if the price holds above 2653.
Bearish Momentum: Dominant as long as the price remains below 2649, especially below 2638.
GOLD--> The bears are gaining strength! Next target: 2605OANDA:XAUUSD is declining after a false breakout of the resistance range. The fundamental backdrop is mixed and still does not allow for a clear medium- and long-term strategy to be formed. But!...
Trump's tariff policy and rising geopolitical tensions are influencing metal prices. Against the backdrop of a strengthening dollar and expectations of a Fed rate cut, gold prices are declining and confirming the market's structure.
Looking ahead, all eyes will be on U.S. employment data as the country will release multiple job-related figures ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
From a technical standpoint, we have a trend to watch after leaving the rising channel support and the 2636 area, reflecting the prevailing bearish sentiment.
A breakout below 2636 could trigger aggressive selling against the backdrop of a newly strengthened dollar. However, the possibility of a retest of the area of interest before continuing the downward trend cannot be ruled out. Gold prices are expected to decline and reach levels of 2610 and 2596, respectively.
Long Gold AgainWe just bought gold near 2632, and then gold rebounded above 2643. I just closed our long position near 2642 and easily earned 100 pips.
At present, gold has fallen back to around 2626. Although we just missed the opportunity to short gold, when gold falls back, as long as gold does not fall below the 2625 line, I think the gold fall is still an opportunity to go long on gold, so I just went long on gold again near 2628. I think we should be able to make at least another 100 pips profit. Anyway, wish us good luck!
Bros, have you gone long on gold? If you want to learn more detailed trading ideas and get more trading signals, you can choose to join the channel at the bottom of the article to make trading no longer difficult and make making money a pleasure!
Silver's Next Big Move: A High-Probability Trade to $34.88!This trade is based on a clean 4-hour FVG (Fair Value Gap) setup. The FVG displaced above a short-term high, confirming a bullish structure shift, and subsequently retraced into a high-probability FVG. This type of retracement often offers strong entries with minimal risk while aligning with the higher timeframe directional bias.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Entry Zone: Within the retraced 4-hour FVG.
- Immediate Target: HTF (Higher Timeframe) buyside liquidity at 34.88981.
- Stop Loss: Positioned below the 4-hour FVG to protect against invalidation of the setup.
Conclusion: This setup leverages a textbook ICT concept, utilizing displacement and retracement into a high-probability zone. If the price continues respecting the FVG and bullish structure, the HTF buyside liquidity target at 34.88981 becomes highly achievable.
DYOR (Do Your Own Research)!
2024-12-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold - Neutral. Death zone is 2644 - 2688. Until we break out of it, I will not touch it again. Unchanged. But the accuracy is pretty amazing so far. I am not touching this but longs are preferred below 2650 for trading back up to 2670+.
comment: Clear trading range so don’t over analyse it. 2644 has to hold for the bulls and bears need to stay below 2680 tomorrow. As long as these prices hold, you have to trade the range and mean reverse. Market is in total balance, so don’t try to guess where the next breakout will happen.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2644 - 2680
bull case: If bulls fail at 2644, 2630 comes next and then the big bull trend line around 2620ish. They desperately need a close above 2680 if they want a buy signal going into next week and even then the upside is probably limited to 2700 and the bear trend line.
Invalidation is below 2610ish.
bear case: Bears are preventing the market from closing above the daily ema but fail to make new lows below 2644. No side has an advantage and if you don’t like scalping, it’s best to wait for a clear new trend. If bulls were strong and wanted to close this year above 2800, we would probably have seen it by now.
Invalidation is above 2700.
short term: Neutral. Market is in balance around 2630.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: Likely to close 2024 above 2800 but I do think the recent selling was the first hint that we will transition into a trading range soon.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling above 2675 has been profitable since Monday.
XAUUSD (1h) buy signal inside a Rectangle.Gold is neutral on the (1h) timeframe, trading sideways inside a Rectangle (Resistance 1 and Support 1).
The price almost hit Support (1) for the 3rd time since Nov 26th and is a technical buy signal.
Each of those times it rose to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 2649 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) almost turned oversold (below 30.00). The previous two times that happened, it was a technical buy signal as well.
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Notes:
Past trading plan: