XAUUSD:7/1 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
Daily resistance 2660, support below 2580
Four-hour resistance 2645, support below 2600-2580
Gold operation suggestions: Gold fluctuated narrowly on Tuesday and is currently trading around 2639. Gold prices fell slightly on Monday. The Federal Reserve recently hinted that it would slow down the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025. U.S. Treasury yields climbed to a new high since May. Gold prices hit a three-day low of around 2614 during the session. However, there were conflicting reports on how aggressive the tariff plan of U.S. President-elect Trump would be after taking office. The U.S. dollar index fell to a new low in more than a week, and gold prices rebounded slightly in late trading.
From the 4-hour analysis, we focus on the short-term suppression of the 2645 line on the top, and the short-term support of the 2637-27 line on the bottom, with a focus on support of 2600. The operation is mainly to buy on dips, supplemented by range trading.
BUY:2627near
BUY:2614near
The strategy only provides trading directions. Since it is not a real-time trading guide, please use a small SL to test the signal.
Commodities
Today’s gold trend trading analysis
Today, gold hit the lowest level of 2626 and began to rebound. The 4-hour big positive line of gold took off directly. A big positive line directly swallowed up countless big negative line entities. This is the strength of the bulls. The big positive line directly lifted the roof. Above gold, we continue to pay attention to the 2655-2658 line, focusing on the 2665 line. If the upper position does not break, do not chase the long position at the high position and the short position at the low position, otherwise non-agricultural week trading will be more difficult.
From the 4-hour analysis, pay attention to the support of 2625-2630 below, and pay attention to the short-term suppression of 2655-2658 above, and focus on the high suppression of 2665 last Friday. The main tone of the cycle of selling high and buying low remains unchanged. Always be cautious in chasing orders and wait patiently for key points to enter the market.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Gold returns to the 2630-2635 line to go long, stop loss at 2623, and target the 2655-2658 line;
2. Go short on the rebound 2653-2658 line, cover the position on the rebound 2665 line, stop loss 2673, target the 2635-40 line, and look at the 2625-2630 line if the position is broken;
OIL bearish bias down to $72.50The price currently trades around $73.37 and appears to be in a retracement phase after a significant sell-off. The overall structure suggests the market may continue to test lower levels with a clear rejection from the recent highs near $75.00, followed by a steady move downward.
Resistance: $74.00, where a rejection occurred
Support: $72.50, which aligns with a previous structure low
Let me know if you agree with my idea ?
GBPUSD Analysis: Bullish Breakout from Falling WedgEThe forex pair GBPUSD is currently trading at 1.25600, with a target price set at 1.28000, indicating a potential gain of over 200 pips. The price action showcases a falling wedge pattern, a bullish reversal formation, which has already broken out to the upside. This breakout confirms a shift in momentum, aligning with the bullish prediction made in prior analysis. Falling wedges typically suggest decreasing bearish pressure, paving the way for buyers to dominate. The breakout signifies a strong upward move, reinforcing confidence in the target price. Traders may see this as an opportunity to capitalize on the bullish trend. However, market conditions, such as economic data or geopolitical events, should still be monitored. Proper risk management remains essential to mitigate potential losses. This setup highlights the importance of technical analysis in identifying profitable trading opportunities.
Will Europe's Gas Gambit Reshape the Global Energy Landscape?In a bold move reverberating across global energy markets, Ukraine's decision to halt Russian gas transit on New Year's Day 2025 has ushered in a new era of energy geopolitics. This watershed moment not only challenges decades-old supply patterns but also tests Europe's resilience and strategic foresight in securing its energy future. The immediate market response, with gas prices surging to levels unseen since late 2023, underscores the significance of this pivotal shift.
Against this backdrop of uncertainty, Norway's Troll field has emerged as a beacon of hope, setting unprecedented production records and demonstrating Europe's capacity for strategic adaptation. With production reaching 42.5 billion standard cubic meters in 2024, this achievement showcases how technological innovation and operational excellence can help reshape traditional energy dependencies. Meanwhile, BMI's forecast of a 40% price increase for 2025 signals the complex interplay between supply disruptions, growing demand, and market expectations.
The transformation of Europe's energy landscape extends beyond mere supply chain reorganization. While countries like Slovakia, Austria, and Moldova face immediate challenges in securing alternative gas sources, the broader European response highlights a remarkable shift in energy security strategy. With storage facilities maintaining robust levels and infrastructure upgrades underway, Europe's energy transition demonstrates how geopolitical challenges can catalyze innovation and strategic resilience in the global energy sector.
Gold - Ready to break higher as tariff tensions escalateGold has made modest ground through Asia, adding $8 on the day, however, the news flow certainly suggests a higher probability that we could soon see increasing buying flows, as investors start to seek out portfolio protection from the incoming tariff hostilities.
News that China added to its gold reserves for a second consecutive month in December, taking its reserves rise to 73.29m ounces from 72.96m in November, is one supportive factor.
Another could be its role as a hedge against the impending tariff news flow.
Tariffs are well known to markets and the idea that Trump will come in on 20 January and put through orders to hit various economies with tariffs is firmly discounted.
What is not priced is aspect of the counter response and the potential retaliation measures…. Of course, It’s not as if anyone expects those nations targeted by Trump’s tariffs to simply take it without a counter response, but it depends on what that response looks like and whether it leads to a painful and protracted tit for tat ‘battle’ that plays out on socials and the media headlines.
Today, amid Justin Trudeau’s resignation, speculation in the Canadian press suggested the Canadians could preannounce a list of US goods that will face retaliatory tariffs in the case of Trump hitting them with 25% tax on all Canadian products. Publishing this list before Trump takes office would be seen as a step in aggression and would not be taken well by either Trump and Jamieson Greer.
In China/HK, the US Defence department has added Tencent to its list of Chinese military companies operating in the US. Not a tariff as such, but this geopolitical development would be a big surprise, not just to the company (shares are -7.3%), but would be seen as an act in bad faith by the Chinese government. China themselves would be preparing for the worst when it comes to tariffs – they have not adhered to any of promises made in the prior agreements to buy certain US goods in a gesture to reduce the US trade deficit.
Trump will use that as in his negotiations, and if there is one economy that is unlikely to get much of a cushion in the upcoming trade talks, its China.
How will China respond? Depreciate the RMB, look at trade ties with other nations (we’re certainly seeing that with China-Mexico forging ties) or come back with counter tariffs on US imports.
The Washington Post reported yesterday that Trump’s aides were exploring universal tariffs only on critical imports and not on all goods – a fact that that was quickly shut down by Trump. If the WaPo are credible, and many suspect this will be the case, it ultimately could be a positive for risk in the long run. However, in the near-term, if the Canadian news comes to fruition, I think it opens the idea that we should prepare now for tit for tat retaliation, and its here where investors may start to look at gold as a hedge against this impending hawkish news flow.
So, while it all depends how hard ball each party wants to appear, it could create a new level of noise and uncertainty that could see higher market volatility and push gold through the range highs of $2726 and towards $2800.
SI - Silver Looks GoldenHow does this look?
Yep, I’m stalking a Long, just like in Gold (check out my latest Gold post).
With the price sitting at the Center-Line, it might drop a bit further to the Shift-Line. Or, it could start climbing today.
For me, this is a "building a position" scenario.
Buy… wait… buy more when the price confirms my projection. Or bail out if it doesn’t.
Trading is so simple...
...but SO HARD §8-)
Happy digging!
The market is reshuffled and continues to run in a range todayGold fluctuated widely yesterday. The closing price of the daily line remained above the MA10 daily average line of 2626, and adjusted in the middle track of the daily Bollinger band. The Bollinger band of the four-hour chart gradually closed. Returning to the oscillation zone, the same is true for the hourly chart, so treat it as oscillation in the short term!
Gold continues to fluctuate in a large range, and continues to short at the high rebound in the Asian session. There is no trend market now, so don't chase it easily. Continue to short at the high rebound of gold. After gold breaks through the range, you can follow the trend.
Gold's 30-minute moving average continues to cross downward and arrange shorts. Gold rebounded at 2649 yesterday and began to fall under pressure. Gold rebounded below 2649 and continued to short at highs. This week is a data week. Gold is likely to continue to fluctuate at the beginning of the week, and then wait for the data to determine the winner.
First support: 2632, second support: 2626, third support: 2614
First resistance: 2643, second resistance: 2649, third resistance: 2659
Operation ideas:
BUY: 2614-2617
SELL: 2647-2650
Crude Opportunity Part 2In this second part, the Crude Futures Daily chart is used.
In this chart, there are marked points where the SuperTrend Buy signal is triggered and is coincided by a green Rate of VolDiv (RoVD, bottom panel). There is one on 8 October but there was no comcomitant indication and clearly it "failed". The others that fulfilled the condition are marked with a yellow time line.
So clearly, the recent breakout is projected to have something similar in terms of a bullish rally.
This is in line with the weekly outlook.
Together with technical indicators like the RoVD, as well as the MACD where there is a clear breakout support, Crude appears to have much upside potential. However, there is no rush as it just met the trendline resistance and is expected to pull back a bit to retest and breakout again for the longer term.
Overall, this looks not like a spike out of fear, but one spurred by inflation. This is in the MUST WATCH list for sure and an accumulation plan should be in place.
A projected path is drawn as a guide and the target for Crude is 100-105.
How Can You Trade Silver Online?How Can You Trade Silver Online?
Silver’s dual role as an industrial metal and investment asset makes it a fascinating market for traders. Its price volatility, global demand, and diverse trading options offer exciting opportunities for those looking to diversify their strategies. In this article, we’ll explore how to trade silver online, key market drivers, and what makes it such a unique asset.
What Makes Silver an Attractive Asset?
Silver is a unique asset that appeals to traders for several reasons, particularly its dual demand in industrial applications and silver investing for portfolio diversification. While gold is primarily an investment metal, silver is used in electronics, solar panels, and even medicine, equating to steady demand regardless of market conditions. This industrial relevance adds a layer of complexity to its price movements, which offers opportunities for a comprehensive analysis.
The metal is also known for its market volatility. Prices can swing significantly within short periods, creating numerous trading opportunities for those who monitor its fluctuations. Despite this volatility, silver remains highly liquid, meaning traders can buy or sell substantial amounts without causing major disruptions to the market.
For those trading and investing in silver, affordability is a key aspect that sets it apart. With a much lower price than gold, it’s accessible to a broader range of market participants. This affordability allows traders and investors to hold larger positions, which can help with diversification. Lastly, silver has long been seen as a hedge against economic uncertainty, often serving as a so-called safe-haven asset during periods of instability, alongside other precious metals like gold.
Silver Trading Hours
Silver trading operates nearly around the clock, opening at 11:00 pm GMT on Sunday and closing at 10:00 pm GMT on Friday. However, the market closes for short overnight breaks during the week, usually for around an hour each day between 10:00 pm and 11:00 pm GMT. It’s important to note that trading hours may vary depending on a trader’s location, but the market always follows this GMT schedule.
Key Factors That Influence Silver Value
Silver online trading is influenced by a mix of economic, industrial, and geopolitical factors, making it difficult for traders and investors to analyse silver market movements. Recognising these key factors is vital for anyone exploring how to trade silver.
- Supply and Demand Dynamics: The balance between a metal's availability and its demand significantly impacts its value. Industrial applications, such as electronics and solar panels, drive demand, while mining production and recycling affect supply. Disruptions in mining or shifts in industrial needs can lead to price fluctuations.
- Economic Indicators: Inflation rates, interest rates, and overall economic health play crucial roles. During inflationary periods, it often attracts investors seeking to hedge risks, potentially driving up prices. However, higher interest rates designed to quell inflation can make non-yielding assets like silver less appealing.
- Geopolitical Events: Global uncertainties, such as political tensions or conflicts, can increase its appeal as a so-called safe-haven asset, leading to price surges.
- Currency Strength: Since silver is priced in US dollars, its value often moves inversely to the dollar. When the dollar weakens, silver value typically rises, and vice versa.
- Market Speculation: Investor sentiment and speculative trading can lead to rapid price changes. Large trades or shifts in market sentiment can cause significant volatility, affecting the metal’s market value.
Different Ways to Trade Silver Online
When it comes to trading silver online, there are several ways to access the market, each with its own appeal and considerations.
1. Silver CFDs (Contracts for Difference)
Most traders interact with CFDs on silver. CFDs enable traders to trade based on silver's price movements without needing to own the physical asset. They can trade on both rising and falling prices, making CFDs a flexible option. CFDs also offer leverage, offering a way to control larger positions with a smaller initial investment. However, it’s essential to understand the risks, as leverage amplifies both potential returns and losses.
Silver CFD trading is available at FXOpen. Check the real-time chart on the free TickTrader trading platform.
2. Spot Silver Trading
Spot silver trading refers to the buying and selling of silver at its current market price, known as the "spot price," with settlement occurring immediately. Unlike silver futures or options, where traders agree to buy or sell silver at a predetermined price on a future date, spot trading reflects the present value of silver for direct exchange.
3. Silver Futures
Futures are contracts where traders agree to buy or sell silver at a specified price on a future date. They are ideal for those looking to speculate on longer-term trends. Futures require a margin account and involve high leverage, which can lead to significant returns or losses.
4. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)
Silver ETFs provide exposure to the metal without needing to handle the metal physically. These funds are traded on stock exchanges and offer a more traditional investment route. While they’re less volatile than leveraged products like CFDs, they also lack the flexibility of short-term trading.
5. Silver Mining Stocks
Companies that mine silver are often used to invest in silver online, though they can be an indirect trading avenue. While stock prices often correlate with silver, they can also be influenced by other factors, such as a company’s operational performance or management decisions.
Comparing Silver with Other Precious and Industrial Metals
Silver occupies a unique position in the commodities market, bridging the gap between precious metals like gold and industrial commodities such as copper. Understanding these relationships can be an essential part of a silver trading strategy.
Silver vs Gold
Both are precious metals and often serve as so-called safe-haven assets during economic uncertainty. However, silver is more volatile than gold. This increased volatility stems from silver's significant industrial applications, which account for about 50% of its demand, compared to gold's 10%. Consequently, silver's price is more susceptible to fluctuations in industrial demand.
Additionally, accessibility in silver as an investment is important to note, since it’s more abundant and less expensive per ounce than gold.
Silver vs Platinum and Palladium
Platinum and palladium are also precious metals with substantial industrial uses, particularly in automotive catalytic converters. Palladium has seen a surge in demand due to stricter emission standards, leading to higher prices.
Silver, while used in various industries, has a more diversified application base, including electronics, solar panels, and medical devices. This diversification can lead to different demand dynamics compared to platinum and palladium. Moreover, silver's market is larger and more liquid, offering more trading opportunities.
Silver vs Industrial Commodities (e.g., Copper)
Silver shares some characteristics with industrial metals like copper, as both are essential in the manufacturing and technology sectors. However, silver's dual role as an investment asset and industrial commodity sets it apart.
While copper prices are primarily driven by construction and infrastructure developments, silver's price is influenced by both industrial demand and investor sentiment. This duality can lead to unique price movements not typically observed in purely industrial metals.
Silver Correlation with Other Assets
Silver exhibits some interesting correlations with other assets that can help traders better anticipate market movements.
Gold-Silver Correlation
Historically, silver and gold move in tandem due to their shared status as precious metals. However, silver tends to be more volatile, with sharper price swings during market upheavals. This relationship isn’t always consistent—during periods of intense industrial demand or unique market shocks, silver can diverge from gold, making it harder to analyse its market moves. Still, silver is an exciting trading option.
Equity
Silver often reacts inversely to stock market trends. When equities perform well, silver can lose appeal as investors shift to riskier assets. In contrast, during downturns, silver may gain traction as a defensive asset.
US Dollar
Like many commodities, silver has an inverse correlation with the US dollar. When the dollar strengthens, silver prices typically fall, as a stronger dollar makes it more expensive for foreign buyers and vice versa.
Crude Oil
Silver shares an indirect connection with oil prices, as energy costs significantly impact mining and refining processes. Rising oil prices can increase production costs, potentially influencing the silver supply.
Risks of Trading Silver
Silver trading online comes with its own set of risks, tied to its unique characteristics as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity.
- Volatility Risks: Silver is known for its price swings, which can be more pronounced than gold due to its smaller market size. These sharp movements create opportunities but also expose traders to the potential for significant losses, especially if positions aren’t carefully managed.
- Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty: While silver often acts as a so-called safe haven, it may be difficult to analyse its price movements. For example, a strengthening US dollar or unexpected global events can cause sudden price drops, catching traders off guard.
- Market Sentiment: Speculation and emotional trading can also drive silver’s price, leading to rapid and sometimes irrational movements. This requires traders to exercise caution and use risk management strategies, such as position sizing and stop-loss levels.
- Market Liquidity: Although silver is generally liquid, certain market conditions can lead to reduced liquidity, making it challenging to execute trades at desired prices. This can result in slippage and losses.
- Regulatory Changes: Changes in regulations, such as margin requirements or trading restrictions, can impact silver markets. For instance, historical events like "Silver Thursday" in 1980 saw regulatory shifts that led to significant market disruptions.
The Bottom Line
Silver’s unique combination of industrial and investment demand, along with its market volatility, makes it an exciting asset for traders. Understanding the factors that influence its price and the different ways to trade it is essential for navigating this dynamic market. If you’re ready to explore silver CFD trading, open an FXOpen account today to access competitive spreads, advanced tools, and a reliable platform for your trading needs.
FAQ
How Can I Trade Silver Online?
Online silver trading can be done through various platforms offering spot markets, futures, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and Contracts for Difference (CFDs). CFDs are particularly popular for online traders, as they allow speculation on silver’s price movements without owning the metal.
Can You Trade Silver in Forex?
The silver code XAG is typically used for trading against the US dollar as the XAG/USD pair. This pairing allows traders to speculate on silver prices relative to the dollar’s strength, combining commodity and currency market dynamics. However, silver can be traded against other currencies, for example, the euro.
Which Pair Correlates With Silver?
Silver (XAG/USD) is most closely correlated with gold (XAU/USD). Both metals often move in similar directions due to their shared status as so-called safe-haven assets, though silver’s industrial demand adds unique price drivers.
What Is the Best Time to Trade Silver?
The best time to trade silver depends on a trader’s trading strategy. However, the most active trading hours for silver are during the overlap between the London and New York sessions, from 1:00 pm to 5:00 pm GMT (winter time) or from 12:00 am to 4:00 pm GMT (summer time). These times offer high liquidity and volatility, creating more opportunities for traders.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Maintain neutrality, pay attention to US data todayAs of press time on Tuesday (January 7), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery maintains a moderate recovery trend during the day, with gold prices currently around 2,639 USD/ounce. Gold prices continue to stabilize, with technical trends unchanged from previous releases.
During this trading day, US macro data will be in focus with the data mentioned below expected to create significant volatility in the short term.
Today (Tuesday), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This important employment data is expected to cause large fluctuations in gold prices this trading day.
Economists predict that there will be 7.7 million JOLT job openings in the United States in November, compared with 7.744 million in October.
The JOLTS job vacancy report was one of the labor force indicators that U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen valued most when she was chair of the Federal Reserve. This index is also labor market data that the Fed is very interested in.
Additionally, on the same day, the US ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for December will be published and is expected to be 53.5, compared to the previous value of 52.1.
In terms of technical structure, OANDA:XAUUSD Still mainly accumulating activities with price activities sticking around the EMA21 line. And the cumulative sideways trend is depicted by the purple price triangle.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is also sticking around 50, showing that market sentiment is also hesitant and waiting for a significant fundamental impact to create a short-term trend.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is neutral, moving sideways and accumulating with notable levels that will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,634 – 2,604 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,664 – 2,693USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2658 - 2656⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2662
→Take Profit 1 2651
↨
→Take Profit 2 2646
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2623 - 2625⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2519
→Take Profit 1 2630
↨
→Take Profit 2 2640
Gold H4 | Rising into 61.8% Fibonacci resistanceGold (XAU/USD) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 2,662.47 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 2,704.35 which is an overlap resistance that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 2,605.66 which is a swing-low support.
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Falling towards overlap support?WTI oil (XTI/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 72.97
1st Support: 71.51
1st Resistance: 75.22
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
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The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Potential bullish rise?The Silver (XAG?USD) has reacted off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance which has been identified as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 29.85
1st Support: 29.30
1st Resistance: 30.70
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Choppy Market: Patience and Key Levels to WatchThis chart highlights a low-probability trading environment with corrective structures and low volatility. Key focus areas:
Upside Breakout: Watch for impulsive moves above the 30M trendline and 4H LQZ for short-term bullish setups.
Downside Correction: A steeper drop into the 15M or 1H LQZ may provide higher-probability long opportunities.
Stay Patient: Avoid trading inside the choppy range; wait for clear reactions at liquidity zones or strong breakouts with momentum.
Gold is still a safe investment channel.After a 27% gain in 2024, gold is still making experts and retail investors confident, with the precious metal forecast to surpass $3,000 an ounce this year.
However, the rally will not happen immediately as the current consolidation phase is expected to last for several more months. Some experts predict that gold will trade in the range of $2,500-2,700 an ounce in the first half of the year, but prices will break out and surpass $3,000 an ounce in the second half of 2025.
The bullish macro picture, combined with continued geopolitical risks and strong government buying, will push gold prices to new highs in 2025.
Gold prices are largely driven by the Federal Reserve’s decision this year. “The key question for the gold market now is how quickly the Fed will ease policy following Donald Trump’s victory, with the inflationary impact of Trump’s policies likely to result in fewer rate cuts than expected.”
Nonfarm Forecast This WeekendUS Treasury yields rose to their highest since May last year, which has been a factor in the decline in gold prices. In contrast, the US dollar index fell sharply today due to concerns about the country's ballooning debt burden, which also supported gold's highs. In a new development, President-elect Donald Trump denied that he would ease new trade tariffs. Mr. Trump dismissed a Washington Post report citing his aides as saying that the new president might be more selective about new tariffs.
After rising 27% in 2024, Goldman Sachs recently dropped its forecast for gold to reach $3,000 an ounce by the end of 2025, instead forecasting 2026 due to expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates less.
Investors are now looking ahead to Friday's nonfarm payrolls data, which is expected to help shape expectations for the Fed's interest rate path this year. Market watchers are also looking to private sector employment data and the minutes of the Fed's most recent policy meeting for further details.
🔥 XAUUSD SELL 2640 - 2638🔥
💵 TP1: 2630
💵 TP2: 2620
💵 TP3: OPEN
🚫 SL: 2647
Pre-Market Analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and Gold Futures The Nasdaq closed higher with an upper wick on the daily chart.
As mentioned previously, this week is expected to show buying pressure at the beginning, followed by selling pressure towards the latter half. After the 240-minute chart's buy signal, the daily chart's MACD is moving closer to the Signal line, indicating buying momentum. However, achieving a complete golden cross appears challenging due to the divergence and angle. The 21,900–22,000 range is considered a short-term high zone, where the market might either sharply drop after forming an upper wick or move sideways before failing the golden cross, leading to a downward shift in the MACD and a subsequent sell-off.
Notably, Nvidia, which has been driving the current index, continues to show strength. Monitoring Nvidia's previous high as a resistance point will be crucial. While the 240-minute chart exhibits strong buying pressure, the steep angle of the recent surge suggests that managing risk and opting for selling opportunities near the highs—rather than buying on dips—would be more advantageous. Additionally, keep an eye on key economic indicators such as the ISM Services Index and JOLTS report, which are scheduled for release today.
Crude oil closed lower with an upper wick.
Given its recent rapid surge, crude oil's daily chart shows significant divergence from the 5-day moving average. It is advantageous to focus on selling at the highs in this scenario. If the price pulls back to the 240-day moving average, observing whether it finds support will be critical. This week, oil could pull back to the 3-week moving average on the weekly chart and then rebound. Therefore, caution is advised against chasing the rally, and selling near previous highs would be prudent. However, buying on dips near the 3-week moving average could present an opportunity.
On the longer-term 240-minute chart, a bearish candlestick at the high has triggered a sell signal. It would be wise to anticipate potential sharp declines and prioritize selling during rebounds. For buying opportunities, it is recommended to act cautiously and at significantly lower levels.
Gold closed lower with a lower wick.
Ahead of Friday’s non-farm payroll data, gold is likely to remain range-bound in a consolidation phase. On the weekly chart, gold faces resistance from moving averages, and this week’s key data releases may determine its trend. On the daily chart, while a buy signal was generated, gold failed to make a significant surge, leading to the MACD and Signal line moving sideways.
With market flows becoming more uncertain, a range-bound strategy is advisable. On the 240-minute chart, gold could form a triangular consolidation pattern in the short term. Until Friday, trading within a range would be the most effective approach.
The weather has turned colder with a cold wave sweeping in, and flu season is here. Please take care of your health, and I wish you successful trading today!
■Nasdaq - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 21,660 / 21,565 / 21,495 / 21,450
-Sell Levels: 21,885 / 21,940 / 22,005 / 22,045 / 22,110
■Oil - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 72.80 / 71.90 / 71.00
-Sell Levels: 73.60 / 74.20 / 74.85
■Gold - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 2,641 / 2,635 / 2,625
-Sell Levels: 2,652 / 2,658 / 2,666 / 2,672
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Great start to the week with our plans to buy dips playing out, as analysed.
We started the day with the bearish target 2633 being hit, followed with a bounce allowing us to safely capture a clean 40 pips.
We did not chase any further, as we got the ema5 lock below 2633 opening 261. Our lock confirmed further movement was due down and just like we analysed another drop followed. The drop was just short of the full gap to 2611 and just above the retracement range, which followed with the bounce inline with our plans.
2611 is a weighted level and as long as we see no lock below 2611, we should see a continuation of the bounce into completing the Bullish gap above.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2661
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2661 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2681
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2681 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2711
BEARISH TARGETS
2633 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2633 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2611
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2611 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2593
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2593 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2570 - 2551
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold (XAU/USD) Symmetrical Triangle Break Imminent?Chart Analysis:
Gold is currently consolidating within a symmetrical triangle, signaling a potential breakout in either direction as the apex approaches.
1️⃣ Key Levels:
Resistance: $2,670 (upper triangle boundary).
Support: $2,590–$2,600 (lower triangle boundary).
2️⃣ Moving Averages:
50-day SMA (blue): At $2,655, acting as immediate dynamic resistance.
200-day SMA (red): At $2,493, indicating long-term bullish bias.
3️⃣ Momentum Indicators:
RSI: At 49.77, neutral, suggesting indecision in market direction.
MACD: Bearish divergence persists, but momentum is stabilizing.
What to Watch:
A break above $2,670 could signal a bullish continuation toward $2,750–$2,800.
A breakdown below $2,590 would expose $2,500 or lower levels.
Conclusion:
The symmetrical triangle highlights a period of consolidation. Monitor for a confirmed breakout with strong volume to determine the next directional move.