Commodities
USOIL - Near to his current support? holds or not?#USOIL.. well guys market perfectly broke his resistance in friday and now trade above that region.
keep close that region because if market hold it in that case we can expect further move to upside.
area is 73.3073.40
BUT keep in mind that that region is also our cut n reverse region. because below that cut n reverse can be a good option.
good luck
trade wisely
GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)Let's start 2025 off with a much awaited Gold analysis! Our Gold sell positions are running in deep profits so far, but still holding with this 'Flat Correction' phase. Expecting some sort of breakout soon, but for now we are still at the beginning of the Wave 3 move.
With every move up, take advantage & sell Gold📉
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT:
In last week's KOG Report we said we would look for two levels from the open to be attempted where we wanted to short the market. The first level of 2630-5 worked extremely well for us giving us a level to level, point to point short into the red box region and target level we had shared. This move completed a majority of our bearish targets apart from one, also giving us the opportunity to then long back up into the Excalibur targets we had above.
During the later part of the week we shared the updated chart and gave the levels again to attempt the short, and again, a pinpoint short came from the level we wanted and we closed the week with runners left on those trades.
Another decent week in Camelot, not only on Gold but also the other pairs we trade and analyse giving us a 15 out of 16 targets completed.
So, what can we expect from the week ahead?
To start, we have NFP towards the end of the week, so we’ll use this report for the first half of the week and then release the NFP KOG Report with our view per-event. After the bearish move on Friday, we’ll be looking for a base during the early sessions, potentially deeper into the 2625-30 region before then attempting the long trade back up to target the resistance levels. It’s those resistance levels 2640 and above that again the 2650-55 region that need to be monitored this week for the break, if held, further opportunities may be available to short again unless broken. We’re still in the larger range with key level support 2605 and resistance sitting way up at 2670-75 so it gives us some idea of the play.
If we do break above that 2550 level and hold with a close, we'll look higher again into the range high trading level to level.
KOG’s bias for the week:
Bullish above 2630 with targets above 2650, 2655 and above that 2667
Bearish below 2630 with targets below 2624, 2620, 2610 and below that 2604
RED BOXES:
Break above 2640 for 2646, 2650, 2659 and 2670 in extension of the move
Break below 2625 for 2620, 2617, 2610 and 2604 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Today and Weekly Outlook for Nasdaq, Crude Oil, and Gold FuturesNasdaq Analysis
Yesterday, Nasdaq closed higher on the daily chart. It formed a double bottom near the 21,000 level and rebounded, entering a consolidation range near the moving averages. The MACD remains above the zero line, and the Signal line is also above the zero line, suggesting the potential for another upward attempt this week. However, due to the significant gap between the MACD and Signal lines, there is a high possibility of a failed buy attempt followed by a downward move. If the MACD shifts downward, a break below the 60-day moving average could occur.
On the weekly chart, no sell signal has emerged yet, but the MACD and Signal lines are closely aligned. This week may determine whether the weekly chart enters a third wave of buying or declines into a death cross. The 240-minute chart currently shows a buy signal, indicating that the market may focus on buying at the start of the week, with a potential shift to selling later in the week as the MACD leans bearish and a third wave of selling emerges on the 240-minute chart. It is advisable to consider support and resistance levels based on daily moving averages and respond to key levels in the longer-term range.
Crude Oil Analysis
Yesterday, crude oil continued its strong upward trend and closed higher. The price has posted five consecutive bullish candles, with the short-term peak near $74 serving as a resistance zone. A pullback to the 5-day moving average should not be ruled out. On the weekly chart, crude oil formed a large bullish candle, breaking through major resistance levels like the 60-week and 120-week moving averages in one move. Buying near the 72.80 level, which corresponds to the 3-week moving average, is favorable during pullbacks, and maintaining support at the midpoint of the weekly bullish candle will be crucial.
The 240-minute chart also reflects strong buying momentum. Above $74, a short-term sell with stop-loss protection is advisable, while aggressive buying during pullbacks below the 5-day moving average on the daily chart is favorable. This is a typical pattern transitioning from bearish alignment to bullish alignment, so caution is advised when considering selling.
Gold Analysis
Gold closed lower yesterday with a bearish candle. Combining Thursday and Friday’s candlesticks, a doji pattern emerges. If gold fails to break above the 60-day moving average on the daily chart and tilts downward, the key support level at 2600 will be critical. On the weekly chart, the sell signal remains intact, with strong resistance around the 10-week and 20-week moving averages. If gold cannot strongly break through this resistance, a pullback should be anticipated. Although the daily chart confirms a buy signal, the movement lacks significant momentum, leaving room for a swift erasure of the buy signal and a shift to selling this week.
On the 240-minute chart, gold is facing resistance at key support/resistance levels. While the pattern can be viewed as a range-bound box, a sell signal on the 240-minute chart could lead to strong selling momentum following a false breakout. Adopting a range-bound strategy with a focus on selling is advantageous.
This Week's Outlook
This week, major events such as CES 2025, the release of FOMC minutes, and the Nonfarm Payroll report are on the agenda. Additionally, next week’s CPI is within view. Be cautious around key events and data release times to manage risks effectively. Wishing you a successful trading week!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-6-25 : Inside BreakawayToday's pre-market RIPPER RALLY somewhat invalidates the "Inside" part of any Inside Breakaway pattern. But, this rally mode in price validates what I've been suggesting for more than 3 weeks now - that the markets would settle after the new year and start to move into a rally phase before the Presidential Inauguration event.
Today's rally in metals and the SPY/QQQ suggests traders are eager to see the Q4:2024 results and are starting to PILE INTO the US equities markets after a very volatile end to 2024.
Even though 2024 was a banner year for the SPY (up over 20% YoY), December was very difficult for many traders. Aren't you glad you listened to my advice and moved to 80-85% CASH back on October 25 and avoided all this chaos?
As we start this week, I want to warn you that trades will be fairly quick in terms of "making up for lost ground". I believe quite a bit of the market's movement will take place overnight and pre-market. We'll still see some trending throughout the US regular trading session - but I believe the bigger moves will take place after hours in most cases.
Remember, foreign capital will be pouring into US assets for safety and security over the next 3-6+ months.
Gold and Silver will act as a hedge against perceived risks and I believe Gold will make a rally attempt above $2800 in early 2025. Silver.. Well, Silver is about to see an explosive move to levels above $35 in my opinion.
Bitcoin is still struggling to break away from this sideways price range. I believe the real struggle will materialize in about 24 to 48 hours as Bitcoin reaches an overlapping consolidation phase (almost like a Flag Apex). This is where I believe big volatility will hit for Bitcoin.
Get some..
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Analysis of gold market trend next week
After this week's low-test and rebound trend, will gold continue to rise this week, or will it start a second decline? It is estimated that many investors tend to favor an upward trend. It is estimated that many investors are leaning towards an upward trend. After all, the rebound shown by bulls this week is very strong. Coupled with the weekly positive pattern and the temporary stabilization of 2596, it is natural to be bullish. However, I We need to be cautious when we think we are bullish, because the performance of bulls this week is still flawed, mainly in two aspects: First, the bullish rebound failed to test the strong pressure of 2680, and failed to maintain the increase of 2650, which is in line with the gradual downward trend of gold prices since the fall of 2726; second, although the daily line recorded a small negative line with a shadow line , but the closing below 2665 not only reflects the intensity of the suppression, but also maintains the short pattern in the technical form. Therefore, I think the short-term rise is only an adjustment, and the direction should still be judged as short-selling control.
From a technical perspective, the weekly line closed positively for several consecutive days. This week, a small positive line with upper and lower shadows was closed, which basically completed the trend of swallowing negative lines. At the same time, it also drove the short-term moving average to extend upward to form support. In addition, the Bollinger Bands are moving upward as a whole, so it should be conducive to the development of bulls. However, the indicators of each cycle maintain a short-term arrangement, and the MACD indicator double lines show a dead cross downward pattern, with signs of continued downward volume. On the daily line, as gold prices surged higher and fell back on Friday, the current price effectively runs above the short-term moving average and the Bollinger Middle Rail, forming short-term support at 2630 and 2618 respectively. In conjunction with the bullish arrangement of other cyclical indicators, the MACD double line golden cross shape, It should help bulls continue their trend. However, it is worth noting that the current Bollinger Bands are generally downward, so the overall daily line needs to be cautiously bullish.
In terms of 4 hours, this week's rise in gold prices is due to continuous small positives, indicating that the momentum of the bulls is not as strong as imagined. This can be seen from the fact that the current price has returned to running below the short-term moving average again, and due to the stagnation of prices, The short-term moving average is at 2650 Double resistance in the opposite direction is formed, and other cycle indicators turn to the short position. The Bollinger Bands are moving downward as a whole. In addition, the MACD double-line bonding shows signs of death cross again. Therefore, at the 4-hour level, the overall short position can be expected to break through 2630 at any time and increase the downward strength action.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Go long near gold 2633-2635, stop loss 2629, target 2665-2673 line;
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Cenergy Holdings:The incredible growth story extends beyond 2030In the case of Cenergy Holdings (CENER), words are unnecessary.
The growth story of this group is incredible and extends beyond 2030. The comparison of this year's nine months with last year is characteristic, with the percentage figures having escaped, such as the +44% in EBITDA from 137 million euros to 196.8 million euros and the more than doubling in pre-tax profits of 123 million euros from 60.1 million euros and after-tax profits of 100.26 million euros from 47.16 million euros, reminiscent more of an IT company than a giant industrial group.
So in this group that is going to reach 400 million euros in operating profits in the next two years, before even putting the new Hellenic Cables factory in the US into full operation, the long-term chart of the stock shows a strong upward trend.
The stock, taking prices within the “W” channel, has broken resistances such as those at 3.465 euros, 7.20 euros and around 10.18 euros, in order to continue towards 12.80 euros. The extension of this pattern gives prices even above 14 euros.
XAG/EUR "Silver vs Euro" Metal Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the XAG/EUR "Silver vs Euro" Metal market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : You can enter a Bull trade at any point.
however I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
Goal 🎯: 29.800 (or) escape Before the Target
Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
Warning⚠️ : Our heist strategy is incompatible with Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️. We'll wreck our plan by smashing the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Avoid entering the market right after the news release.
Fundamental Outlook 📰🗞️
Based on the fundamental analysis, I would conclude that the XAG/EUR (Silver/Euro) pair is: Bullish
Reasons:
Increasing demand for silver: Silver is used in a variety of industrial applications, including solar panels, electronics, and automotive manufacturing, and demand for these products is expected to increase.
Limited supply of silver: The supply of silver is limited, and mining production is not expected to keep pace with growing demand, which could lead to a shortage and drive up prices.
Safe-haven demand: Silver is often seen as a safe-haven asset, and investors may seek to buy silver as a hedge against economic uncertainty, inflation, or market volatility.
Weakening euro: The euro has been weakening against other major currencies, which could make silver more attractive to European investors and drive up prices.
Central bank buying: Some central banks have been buying silver as a reserve asset, which could support prices and increase demand.
Bullish Factors:
Increasing demand for silver, driven by its use in industrial applications and its potential as a safe-haven asset.
Low interest rates and negative real interest rates, which can increase demand for silver as a store of value.
A strong euro, which can make silver more attractive to European investors.
Potential for a decline in the euro, which could increase demand for silver as a hedge against currency risk.
Growing investment demand for silver, driven by its potential as a diversifier and a store of value.
Market Sentiment:
Bullish sentiment: 75%
Bearish sentiment: 25%
Neutral sentiment: 0%
Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
Take advantage of the target and get away 🎯 Swing Traders Please reserve the half amount of money and watch for the next dynamic level or order block breakout. Once it is resolved, we can go on to the next new target in our heist plan.
Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
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SILVER BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are now examining the SILVER pair and we can see that the pair is going up locally while also being in a uptrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB upper band being nearby, indicating that the pair is overbought so we can go short from the resistance line above and a target at 28.536 level.
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Target Achieved: Our XAUUSD Forecast Was Spot On!The market has hit the target just as we predicted! 🚀 Our analysis of the strong 4H trendline and bullish momentum proved accurate, with the price continuing to push upward as anticipated. This is a testament to the power of technical analysis and staying disciplined with the trend. 📈
Stay tuned for more insights and forecasts! 💡
GOLD (XAUUSD) ANALYSISFrom the updated chart, here's a refined **analysis and target projection**:
---
### **Analysis**:
1. **Current Price**:
- Gold is trading around **2645.59**, showing a bullish attempt to break above recent resistance levels.
2. **Demand Zone**:
- A possible higher low (HL) formation is near the **2620–2630 zone**, indicating strong buyer interest. If this level holds, the price may continue its upward movement.
3. **Resistance Areas**:
- The next immediate resistance zone lies between **2650–2660**, where a minor supply zone exists.
- If this zone breaks, the price may target the next significant supply level around **2680–2700**, as suggested by the higher green zone.
4. **Bullish Continuation**:
- The drawn purple arrow indicates a potential retracement into the support zone, likely around **2635–2640**, before continuing the bullish trend.
- The market structure remains bullish, with higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL).
---
### **Targets**:
1. **First Target (Short-Term)**: **2650–2660**
- A logical level for partial profit-taking or initial resistance.
2. **Second Target (Mid-Term)**: **2680–2700**
- A higher supply zone, with the potential to act as a significant resistance level.
---
### **Invalidation**:
- A break below **2620** would invalidate the bullish setup and could lead to further downside toward **2600 or lower**.
XAUUSD - Gold is waiting for an important week!!In the 4-hour timeframe, gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 and is in its short-term descending channel. The continued rise of gold towards the supply zones will provide a position to sell it with a suitable risk reward.
The year 2024 turned out to be unprecedented for the global gold market. This precious metal witnessed a remarkable growth of nearly 30%, outperforming all other commodities and emerging as one of the most prominent financial assets of the year. Such exceptional performance has continued to gain the trust of analysts and professionals in the gold and jewelry industry, drawing the attention of many traders to this market.
Despite forecasts suggesting that gold prices could surpass $3,000 per ounce in 2025, the beginning of 2024 told a different story. Spot gold prices started the year at around $2,000 but fell to $1,992 by mid-February. However, Valentine’s Day marked a turning point, as gold rebounded strongly, climbing back above $2,000 and successfully maintaining this critical level.
A significant market milestone occurred at the end of February. In just two days, gold prices surged by over $60, and on the first trading day of March, the metal broke past the $2,100 threshold, setting a new record. After a period of price consolidation at higher levels, gold resumed its upward trend in the final days of the month, surpassing $2,200. By mid-April, gold approached the $2,400 mark. However, traders were not yet prepared to accept these levels, and by the end of April, spot gold prices had retreated below $2,300.
May saw renewed optimism in the precious metals market. On May 16, spot gold decisively broke through the $2,400 resistance level. Nonetheless, after reaching a peak of $2,426, prices entered the longest consolidation phase of 2024.
Finally, on June 10, gold once again broke the $2,400 resistance and managed to establish it as a support level. From that point onward, gold embarked on one of its most stable upward trends of the year, which continued through late summer and early autumn. On October 30, gold prices hit a new record of $2,788.54 per ounce.
However, the election of Donald Trump on November 5, 2024 (15th of Aban 1403), interrupted gold’s rally. Spot gold, which had reached $2,743 on November 4, dropped within 10 days to the $2,560 range.
Nevertheless, gold quickly found new support. The president-elect’s threats of tariffs and trade wars, combined with renewed inflationary concerns, pushed gold prices back above $2,700. Although the metal did not return to its October highs, it maintained strong support at $2,600 for the remainder of the year, preventing further declines.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for gold prices, stating that the metal would not reach $3,000 in 2025. However, the bank remains optimistic that gold prices will continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace than before.
GOLD: Expecting Bullish Movement! Here is Why:
The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the GOLD pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move up.
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Gold Price ActionHello Traders,
We’ve observed a Drop-Base-Drop (DBD) pattern, and the price has retraced to test 50% of the DBD zone. The rejection at this level is marked by a Shooting Star candle—an indication of a strong likelihood that the price may drop further from this area and head toward the next fresh Demand Zone.
Key Reminder: Always prioritize risk management before executing your trades.
Get set, stay disciplined, and trade smart.
Wishing you success and happy trading!
XAUUSD Bullish break-out targeting $3000 about to happenGold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a 15-month Channel Up (since the October 06 2023 Low) and it's been under bearish pressure since the most recent October 30 2024 Higher High of the pattern.
The consolidation around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since the November 14 2024 Low formed a Triangle pattern that is consistent with the previous two bottom formations (Higher Lows) of the Channel Up.
More specifically, last Friday's rejection on the 1D MA50 is technically the 3rd since the November 14 2024 Low. In the previous two bottom formations, Gold never had a 4th rejection, on the contrary when it broke above the 1D MA50 after the 3rd, it also broke above the Triangle patterns, and technically initiated the new Bullish Leg of the pattern.
The 1D MACD sequences are also similar among those fractals, in fact we just completed the 2nd Bullish Cross below the 0.000 level, which was the Buy Signal before the 1D MA50/ Triangle top bullish break-out.
As a result, we expect the new Bullish Leg to start soon and since both previous rallies have been at least +21.85%, our Target now is even below that estimate at $3000.
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XAUUSD: 6/1 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
Daily resistance 2660, support below 2580
Four-hour resistance 2645, support below 2600-2580
Gold operation suggestions: Last Friday, gold technically rose slightly in the Asian session and was under pressure at the 2665 mark, and then continued to fluctuate and fall downward. The European session continued to fall and pierced the 2650 mark and quickly rebounded. Finally, the US session was under pressure at the 2659 line and continued to fluctuate downward and fell, breaking through the 2640 mark and closing weakly near 2637.
From the 4-hour analysis, we focus on the short-term suppression of the 2660 line above, and the short-term support of the 2627 line below, with the focus on the support of 2600.
BUY:2627near
BUY:2610near
Market trends change all the time.
The strategy only provides trading directions. Since it is not a real-time trading guide, please use a small SL to test the signal.
GOLD Update: Should I buy it?OANDA:XAUUSD continues to attract attention even as the US dollar strengthens, fueled by ongoing geopolitical and economic crises that drive demand for safe-haven assets. Prices are consolidating above previous resistance levels and are pushing toward establishing new local highs.
As for gold's price volatility, the upcoming week will feature several key US economic data releases, including employment reports and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes. These updates are expected to provide investors with greater clarity on the Fed's monetary policy, especially following projections of interest rate cuts in 2025.
Regarding the gold strategy for the new week, Ben personally prioritizes buying strategies if the price remains within the wedge, targeting at least the upper boundary of the price channel. This anticipated upward move is expected to reach the level of 2690.