Commodities
Gold short-term analysis. From the perspective of the short-term trend hourly level, the gold price had a short correction during the strong rise last week, but it was quickly recovered and then went higher, so there is no obvious reference support level. Today's overall trend is volatile. Without the influence of data and news, gold does not have the basis for a big rise or fall.
There are signs of a retracement, but it is also trading around 3200. Since it is a trend of high-level consolidation, we can continue to implement the idea of rebounding and shorting. So far, the price has maintained a relatively high level of 3193-3230 for repeated consolidation. Pay attention to the effective gains and losses of the MA10 daily moving average; if it cannot break through, it will continue to pull back in the short term and gradually move closer to the middle track; if the 1-hour candle entity cannot fall below the 3193 support, it will continue to consolidate at a high level.
Key points:
First support: 3210, second support: 3200, third support: 3192
First resistance: 3232, second resistance: 3246, third resistance: 3268
Operation ideas:
Buy: 3200-3203, SL: 3192, TP: 3220-3230;
Sell: 3245-3248, SL: 3257, TP: 3220-3210;
Bearish reversal off overlap resistance?The Silver (XAG/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support which has been identified as a pullback support.
Pivot: 32.73
1st Support:31.25
1st Resistance: 33.51
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Will Coffee Remain an Affordable Luxury?Global coffee prices are experiencing a significant upswing, driven primarily by severe supply constraints in the world's major coffee-producing regions. Adverse weather conditions, notably drought and inconsistent rainfall linked to climate change, have crippled production capacity in Brazil (the largest arabica producer) and Vietnam (the largest robusta producer). Consequently, crop yield forecasts are being revised downwards, export volumes are shrinking, and concerns over future harvests are mounting, putting direct upward pressure on both arabica and robusta bean prices worldwide.
Adding complexity to the situation are fluctuating market dynamics and conflicting future outlooks. While recent robusta inventories have tightened, arabica stocks saw a temporary rise, sending mixed signals. Export data is similarly inconsistent, and market forecasts diverge significantly – some analysts predict deepening deficits and historically low stocks, particularly for Arabica, while others project widening surpluses. Geopolitical factors, including trade tensions and tariffs, further cloud the picture, impacting costs and potentially dampening consumer demand.
These converging pressures translate directly into higher operational expenses for businesses across the coffee value chain. Roasters face doubled green bean costs, forcing cafes to increase consumer prices for beverages to maintain viability amidst already thin margins. This sustained cost increase is impacting consumer behaviour, potentially shifting preferences towards lower-quality coffee, and diminishing the price premiums previously enjoyed by specialty coffee growers. The industry faces significant uncertainty, grappling with the possibility that these elevated price levels may represent a new, challenging norm rather than a temporary spike.
USOIL Today's strategyCurrently, USOIL is fluctuating within a range without a clear directional bias. If it stably breaks through the range of $63 to $64, it is highly likely to continue rising. Conversely, if it fails to break through, it may trigger a decline towards the range of $59 to $57.
USOIL
sell@63-62
tp:60-59
I hope this strategy will be helpful to you.
When you find yourself in a difficult situation and at a loss in trading, don't face it alone. Please get in touch with me. I'm always ready to fight side by side with you, avoid risks, and embark on a new journey towards stable profits.
XAGUSD H4 | Be arish Reversal Based on the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 32.71, a pullback resistance
Our take profit is set at 31.25, a pullback support.
The stop loss is set at 34.52, a swing high resistance.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
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XAUUSD M30 I Bearish Drop Based on the M30 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 3223.18, which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 61.85 Fibo retracement.
Our take profit will be at 3190.47, a swing low support.
The stop loss will be placed at 3246.28, which is a swing high resistance level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
XAUUSD Gold in Overdrive: Awaiting a Critical Pullback for a BuyDaily Chart Analysis
On the daily chart, XAUUSD has surged to new highs, signaling an overextended market as gold rallies far above previous price swings. The price is now trading at a premium, which indicates that much of the bullish momentum may already be priced in. As a result, there is potential for a pullback toward a more attractive entry area. Specifically, a retracement into a discounted zone—ideally below the 50% level of the previous swing—may offer a better long opportunity rather than entering at these extended levels. 📈⚠️
4-Hour Chart Analysis
Examining the 4-hour timeframe reveals more granular price action that aligns with the daily trend. Here, gold displays signs of potential exhaustion with the recent impulsive moves. The market structure hints at the possibility of a short-term setup if the price begins to reverse, aligning with basic Wyckoff theory principles. This suggests that while there might be an interim short play if the reversal is confirmed, the expectation remains that a healthy pullback will eventually pave the way for a new long opportunity once the price finds support. 🔻🤔
Integrating Price Action, Market Structure & Wyckoff Theory
Using elements of Wyckoff theory, it's clear that the current rally has pushed the market into an overbought state.
• The price action indicates a likely initiation of a distribution phase, where selling pressure might temporarily take over.
• A pullback into the discounted zone (particularly under the 50% retracement of the prior range) would be an ideal opportunity to look for a buying setup.
• On the flip side, if the shorter-term setup solidifies, a conservative short play could be considered until signs of accumulation emerge.
This dual perspective underscores the importance of disciplined risk management and monitoring short-term reversals while keeping an eye on the broader trend. 🔍📉💡
Summary of Key Takeaways
XAUUSD is currently overextended with a strong rally to new highs. While the momentum is robust, the premium pricing compared to previous swings suggests caution. A pullback into a discounted zone, specifically below the 50% retracement level, could provide a more enticing entry point for those looking to go long. Concurrently, the 4-hour chart offers potential setups for a short play should price action indicate a reversal. Coupling these observations with Wyckoff theory fundamentals can allow for a balanced, dynamic trading strategy. 🔄
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any trading decisions.
SILVER Will Grow! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
SILVER is trading in an
Uptrend and the price is
Now consolidating above
The horizontal support
Of 31.80$ and as we are
Bullish biased we will be
Expecting a further bullish
Move up
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Channel Down bottomed. Buy opportunity.WTI Crude Oil is heavily bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 38.039, MACD = -2.310, ADX = 38.046) as it is trading inside a Channel Down for more than 1 year. Last week's low has made a technical LL at the bottom of the pattern and the current consolidation indicates that this may be an attempt to initiate the new bullish wave. The 1D RSI recovered from being oversold previously and this potentially hints to a rebound over the 1D MA200. The last bullish wave crossed above the 0.618 Fibonacci marginally. Trade: long, TP = 71.00.
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GS raises gold target to $4,000, UBS to $3,500 Goldman Sachs and UBS have issued another round of bullish forecasts for gold, citing ongoing market uncertainty (i.e., tariffs).
Goldman analysts now expect gold to reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, with a potential rise to $4,000 by mid-2026. UBS holds a slightly more conservative view, projecting $3,500 by December 2025.
Technically, gold has pulled back from new all-time highs seen during the Asian session but potentially remains in a strong uptrend. With prices trading well above both the 50-day EMA and 200-day EMA, shallow retracements may find support, especially as tariff-related risks persist for at least the next 90 days.
XAUUSD Market Update – April 14, 2025🟡 XAUUSD Market Update – April 14, 2025 (End of NY)
🔍 Market Structure Overview
Trend (HTF): Still bullish on H4 with a strong impulsive leg from 3120 → 3248. Current pullback is testing premium zone around 3205–3215.
LTF Structure: M15-H1 shows a textbook liquidity sweep + internal CHoCH, followed by BOS. Price is currently in a reaccumulation phase between 3205 and 3215.
Range: Price is bouncing between the weak high @ 3247 and key support zone @ 3172–3180. Volume thinning out during late NY.
🧠 Key Observations
Fakeout sweep @ 3215: Clear internal liquidity grab followed by CHoCH on M5–M15, triggering short-term upside.
3209 Entry Zone Rejected: Price swept that level without reaction — confirms liquidity engineering.
Premium Distribution Active: H4 OB + FVG zone between 3233–3247 still unmitigated — price may revisit before broader move.
Daily FVG below: Unmitigated bullish gap around 3172–3180, aligning with M30-H1 demand and FIB 61.8 retracement.
🔵 Mitigated Zones
🔹 3205–3210 (EQ zone from earlier CHoCH): Fully mitigated.
🔹 3188 (micro OB): Mitigated and invalidated — no longer valid.
🔹 3215 (fakeout + sweep): Fully played.
🔴 Unmitigated Zones
🔸 3233–3247 (H1–H4 OB + Premium + FVG): 🔥 Active supply area.
🔸 3172–3180 (Daily Imbalance + H1 demand): Strong bounce candidate.
🔸 3120–3130 (Deep discount + demand): Only if a deeper correction forms.
🧭 Current Bias
Short-term bullish into potential rejections near 3225–3233.
Overall market still bullish, but a correction toward 3172–3180 is healthy before continuation.
⚠️ What to Watch
3233–3247: If price spikes into this supply area and shows M5/M15 CHoCH → potential reversal.
3215–3220: Micro liquidity zone may induce late buyers → be cautious.
3172–3180: Strong bounce or continuation zone — RSI confluence and clean M30 imbalance.
🧾 Summary
XAUUSD is currently consolidating between key supply (3233–3247) and demand (3172–3180). Price is sweeping intraday liquidity, hinting at another attempt toward the upper zone before a deeper correction. Patience is key — sniper entries only around the unmitigated OBs with clear M5 confirmation.
Stay sharp, stay selective. Don’t chase, let price come to your zone.
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#GoldMinds #XAUUSD #SmartMoney #FVG #SniperEntry
Bullish continuation?XAU/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 3,156.20
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 3,083.60
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 3,242.52
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Choose to go short at high levels for crude oilThe price of crude oil is still fluctuating within a range and lacks clear directional momentum. The outlook remains bearish until it breaks through the $63.70 mark or there are clear factors stimulating demand. In the short term, the trend of oil prices is likely to remain confined to the current range. In terms of trading suggestions, it is advisable to mainly go short and go long as a supplement.
Oil trading strategy:
sell @ 61.90-62.10
sl 62.80
tp 61.20-61.00
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GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Great start to the week with our chart idea playing out, as analysed.
We started of with our bearish target hit at 3230 followed with ema5 cross and lock below 3230 opening 3201, which was hit perfectly and followed with the weighted bounce of over 40 pips inline with our plans to buy dips.
We will now either look for support above this Goldturn level for a continuation above or a cross and lock below 3201 will open the Goldturn level below.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3261
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3261 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3292
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3292 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3324
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3324 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3352
BEARISH TARGETS
3230 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3230 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3201 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3021 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE
3179
3152
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3167 WILL OPEN THE SWING RNGE
3120
3094
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2975 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3069 - 3038
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
SILVER My Opinion! SELL!`
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the SILVER next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 32.295
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 30.783
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NZD/USD Approaches 0.5900 – Critical Test for Bulls Ahe🧭 Overview:
The NZD/USD pair showed notable bullish strength on Monday, April 14, 2025, opening at 0.5830, hitting a high of 0.5900, and closing near 0.5885. This upward movement marks a potential shift in sentiment after a prolonged period of consolidation, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and increased risk appetite among investors.
📈 Current Market Structure:
The pair broke above the consolidation range and is now trading near a key resistance zone around the 200-day moving average. The recent bullish candle indicates strong buyer momentum, suggesting that a medium-term trend reversal may be underway.
🔹 Key Resistance Levels:
0.5900: Psychological level and the 200-day SMA. A daily close above this may confirm a shift in long-term trend.
0.5955: A former swing high, acting as the next resistance for bulls.
0.6000 – 0.6040: Major resistance zone. A breakout here could confirm full bullish reversal and open room for extended gains.
🔸 Key Support Levels:
0.5823: Recent swing low and intraday support. Holding above this level maintains short-term bullish bias.
0.5760: Intermediate support. A break below this could expose the pair to deeper corrections.
0.5700: Major support level, aligning with previous structure lows from February 2024.
Source: DailyFX, Investing.com
📐 Price Action Patterns:
Recent bullish candles have broken key resistance within a sideways range, indicating increased demand for the kiwi dollar. The breakout above 0.5850 confirms momentum, while the lack of overbought signals on RSI and MACD crossover further support the continuation of the move. However, price faces a major test at the 0.5900 area.
🔮 Potential Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Scenario:
If NZD/USD maintains above 0.5823 and successfully breaks above 0.5900, the pair could extend gains toward 0.5955 and 0.6000. This scenario may be supported by weaker U.S. dollar sentiment and stabilization in global risk sentiment.
❌ Bearish Scenario:
If the pair fails to hold above 0.5823, it may decline toward 0.5760. A break below this level opens the door to test 0.5700, which would invalidate the current bullish breakout structure.
📌 Conclusion:
NZD/USD is showing signs of bullish recovery, supported by a breakout above consolidation and increased technical momentum. The area around 0.5900 will be critical — a successful close above it could mark the beginning of a new bullish phase. Traders should watch price action closely near this resistance zone and adjust strategies accordingly.
🗓️ Note: This analysis is based on market data available as of April 14, 2025. Always follow up with the latest price action and news events before making trading decisions.
XAU/USD Weekly Outlook Liquidity Grab Before Next Move📌 XAU/USD Weekly Outlook: Range-Bound Behavior Hints at Potential Liquidity Grab Before Next Move 💰📊
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently consolidating within a broad 30-point price channel between 3,216 and 3,246. Price action shows clear indecision, as bulls and bears wrestle for control without confirmation of a breakout or breakdown.
While the overall trend remains bullish, momentum has softened compared to last week. Technical indicators are signaling overbought conditions, and a deeper liquidity sweep is becoming increasingly probable. Traders should remain patient and watch for clearer signals during the upcoming European session.
🔍 Market Structure Highlights
Upside Barriers: 3,246 (ATH), 3,255, 3,268, 3,285, 3,302
Downside Supports: 3,216, 3,195, 3,172, 3,152, 3,120
📈 Trade Opportunity Zones
Potential Long Setup:
Buy Zone: 3,172 – 3,170
Stop Loss: 3,166
ls: 3,176 | 3,180 | 3,184 | 3,188 | 3,192 | 3,196 | 3,200
Potential Short Setup:
Sell Zone: 3,268 – 3,270
Stop Loss: 3,274
Target Levels: 3,264 | 3,260 | 3,256 | 3,252 | 3,248 | 3,244 | 3,240
🧭 Weekly Strategy Insight
With no significant economic data on the calendar this week, price movements will likely be driven by intraday liquidity and order flow. Focus should be placed on the London and New York sessions, where volume tends to peak and directional bias becomes more evident.
Current market behavior suggests that a fake-out or liquidity trap could develop before the next significant move. Traders are advised to avoid chasing price and instead wait for optimal entries at key zones.
⚠️ Risk Reminder
Even in the absence of major news, volatility remains elevated. Always execute trades with a solid risk plan and predefined TP/SL levels. Protect your capital first — the opportunities will come with patience and discipline. 🛡️
SILVER: Local Bearish Bias! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 32.134 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
GOLD: Strong Bullish Sentiment! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 3.209.40 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 3,236.71.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️