Gold Wave 5 Bull Complete?! (4H UPDATE)I’m currently eyeing up 2 areas on Gold for short term sells, within the Gold Fund for my investors. Once price reaches 1 of these 2 areas, I can then judge from price action if Gold will finally drop lower as we want, or will bullish momentum kick in again.
POI 1: $3,147📉
POI 2: $3,060📉
Markets are hugely volatile, so we need to monitor minor areas for any potential reversals or continuation of trends.
Commodities
Gold Market Outlook: Potential Pullback in Play Following Early Early this morning, the gold market opened with a downside gap, potentially signaling the beginning of a corrective phase. With no high-impact economic events on the calendar today, price action may remain sideways or retrace toward the previous session’s low. On the 1-hour timeframe, bearish divergence has already been identified, supporting the case for a short-term pullback.
A similar consolidation phase occurred after the bullish momentum seen from March 11 to March 20. If no unexpected developments influence the market, comparable price behavior could emerge. Overall, conditions suggest a classic breakout–pullback–continuation scenario, which is consistent with typical movements following strong directional trends. A key resistance zone near the 3280 level is currently being observed as a potential target area
XAU/USD: A Huge Fall Ahead? (READ THE CAPTION)By re-examining the gold chart on the 30-minute timeframe, we can see that the price once again moved exactly as expected and finally managed to rise back above $3100, reaching as high as $3136.5! Currently, gold is trading around $3120, and I expect we will soon see further decline in gold. The potential downside targets are $3115, $3105, and $3100 respectively. This analysis will be updated again!
The Last Analysis :
XAUUSD: 14/4 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance 3300, support below 3150-2970
Four-hour chart resistance 3250, support below 3190-3150
One-hour chart resistance 3250, support below 3210
Analysis of gold news: Last week, the gold market staged a thrilling bull carnival, with a strong weekly price increase of $298. Among the many complex factors affecting the trend of gold prices, tariff news is like a "visible hand" that firmly controls the direction of the market.
Judging from the current situation, if the tariff policy is further tightened, the risk aversion sentiment in the global market will inevitably be re-ignited, which will in turn drive the gold price to continue its strong rise. On the contrary, once there is a sign of easing in the tariff policy, the gold market is very likely to reverse in an instant, fall rapidly or even fall into a situation of plummeting. Therefore, the key guidance for the trend of gold this week is undoubtedly focused on every subtle change in the tariff news.
Gold operation suggestions: Last Friday, the technical side of gold continued to fluctuate upward and break through the highs. The US market accelerated to break through and stood above the 3240 mark and closed at a high level. It closed with a big rise for three consecutive trading days. The short-term gold price has completely entered the overbought pattern.
From the current trend analysis, today's upper short-term resistance is around the 3250 mark, and the lower support is the one-hour level 3210 and the four-hour level 3190. In terms of operation, continue to buy in line with the trend when stepping back to this position. At the same time, gold is currently in a serious overbought pattern. Be careful of a sharp correction and decline.
Buy: 3210near SL:3205
Buy: 3190near SL:3185
Buy: 3150near SL:3145
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would stick with the NFP move and look for price to continue long looking for our target region 3050-55. We were already in the move with the trades protected, however, on open we did get closed at BE only to be able to get a better entry from the undercut low. After the break of the key level and on the flip we managed to then continue with the move upside completing numerous Excalibur targets as well as our bias and red box targets upside.
I can’t say that was an easy week, the move was huge and thankfully we managed to stay the right side of it guided by the in-house indi’s and Excalibur.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
Although further upside is likely, we can’t long here as it’s too dangerous after that stretch last week. So let’s see how the market opens and if the Asia session attempts to test that high again. It’s the first level of 3230 that needs to be watched, support here can push us back upside into the above the key level of 3250-55 which is our ideal level for the hunt. If we can stay below that level we could see a RIP and price attempt the correction many traders are looking for in the early part of the week. The lower levels 3220 need to break as well as then the hurdle of 3210 which will make the correction easier.
Due to low volume news next week, we could see a lot of ranging in anticipation of some geopolitical news which will bring sudden spurts of volume and the movement that we want to see.
3190 is the key level support and also the pattern test region, traders should keep an eye on this level of support for any RIP’s and potential for upside, so if attacked a bounce around there should be on the cards. It’s simply a red box break and close week this week, monitoring the price action and only looking for the longs if we get pullbacks, otherwise, 1-2 decent short opportunities should be enough for the short week.
KOG’s bias of the week:
Bearish below 3265 with targets below 3220, 3210. 3197, 3190 and below that 3170
Bullish on break of 3265 with targets above 3276, 3280, 3285 and above that 3292
RED BOXES:
Break above 3250 for 3255, 3261, 3269, 3275 and 3290 in extension of the move
Break below 3230 for 3220, 3210, 3206, 3195 and 3180 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-14 : Up-Down-Up PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will move in a moderate upward price trend.
Although I don't expect anything huge today, I do believe the EPP structures/layers support this upward price move and that we'll see the SPY attempt to move back towards/above 550 over time.
The QQQ will likely follow the SPY higher over the next 5+ days.
Don't get too excited about this upward price move because it is structurally moving to setup a PEAK that will transition into a downtrend near April 22-25. This peak will create a downward price flag (a new inverted EPP) structure that will assist in developing a new sideways price structure carrying into June/July.
In other words, it looks like we are trapped between 480-585 on the SPY, and we will likely stay within that wide consolidation range for another 2-3 months.
Gold should attempt to rally this week, trying to break above $3300. I believe this is a critical level for Gold and also presents a breakaway level for Silver near $33.00
Bitcoin has moved into APEX VOLATILITY and will continue to trap BUYERS into believing BTCUSD is breaking away from the consolidation range. This is a BULL TRAP.
I believe BTCUSD will ROLL OVER within about 4-5 days - setting up a big breakdown move as the SPY/QQQ also roll downward in about 5+ days.
We still continue to see volatility and sideways price action. Still lots of opportunities for skilled traders.
Get Some..
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SILVER Will Move Lower! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for SILVER.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 3,219.5.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 3,090.7.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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OPEC Cuts Oil Demand Forecast While Increasing SupplyOil prices are feeling bearish pressure. OPEC was unable to increase production significantly last year to stabilize prices. High interest rates have kept global economies cool enough. However, starting in May, OPEC will begin unwinding its voluntary production cuts. The timing of this decision is questionable. Tariffs are expected to hit global economies hard, while the Fed is likely to hold rates steady for a few more months. Recession risks in the world’s two largest economies, the U.S. and China are rising.
OPEC has acknowledged this trend by lowering its oil demand forecast for 2025 and 2026 by nearly 10%.
If summarized:
Oil demand is expected to fall 10%, possibly more if the U.S. and/or China enter recession.
Trump is expected to boost U.S. drilling, increasing supply.
OPEC will start to unwind supply cuts, increasing supply.
Brent is likely to remain under bearish pressure throughout the year because of rising supply and falling demand. As long as the current fundamental outlook remains unchanged, upward moves should be viewed as selling opportunities. A downtrend channel has formed since mid-2023, with the lower boundary recently tested. There is now an upward reaction. If this continues toward the 68.25–70.70 zone—previously a demand zone, now a potential supply zone—traders may look for short entry setups, provided this zone holds, with nearby stop-loss levels.
Gold Holds Haven Status Above 3200Gold maintains its safe-haven appeal, holding firmly above the $3,200 mark. The current trend met resistance near $3,250, and a decisive breakout could drive further gains toward $3,290–$3,300, fueled by rising trade war tensions and ongoing dollar weakness.
• Downside Risks:
If the dollar reverses or U.S.–China trade talks show progress, a drop below $3,200 may lead to pullbacks toward $3,190 and $3,170.
A deeper decline could trigger a broader correction toward $3,100 and $3,090, helping to reset overbought momentum on higher time frames or set the stage for a deeper downturn.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
SILVER Is Bullish! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for SILVER.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 3,027.0.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 3,231.0.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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SHORT ON GOLD (XAU/USD)Gold has found a ceiling and has given a bit of a double top with a change of market structure from up to down.
Its currently retesting the supply area that provided the choc (change of character)
I will be selling gold to the next support level looking to make a $50 move which is 500 pips.
GOLD INTRADAY bullish above 3150Gold remains in a bullish trend following a breakout above previous all-time highs. The recent price action suggests strong upward momentum, with buyers currently in control.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support:
3150 – Key level from recent consolidation; likely to act as strong support.
3134 and 3074 – Deeper support levels if 3150 fails.
Resistance:
3270 – First major resistance target.
3285 and 3310 – Additional upside targets on continued strength.
Scenarios:
Bullish: A pullback to 3150 followed by a bounce could trigger a move toward 3270 and beyond.
Bearish: A daily close below 3150 would weaken the bullish setup, potentially leading to a drop toward 3134 or 3074.
Conclusion:
Gold is currently showing bullish momentum, but watch for a possible pullback to 3150. A bounce from that level would confirm continued strength, while a break below it would shift the short-term bias to neutral or bearish.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Managed Money Selling Gold into Strength to Take ProfitsGold has entered a consolidation phase after surging from 2970 to 3245 last week. Ongoing headlines about tariffs continue to fuel global demand, with strong interest seen in China and U.S. However, there are early signs that gold prices may be approaching a short-term supply-demand equilibrium.
COMEX inventory data recently showed that, for the first time in this rally (since December), physical demand has not increased over the past few days. While demand remains strong overall, this could be an early signal of slowing momentum.
The latest COT report indicates that total net managed money positions have been slowly declining since early February, with the pace of reduction picking up recently. This suggests that smart money is locking in some profits while the market remains strong. Still, net positioning remains elevated.
In the short term, this might not trigger a major reversal, but gold bulls should stay cautious and consider tightening stop-loss levels to manage risk.
A possible flag pattern appears to be forming, though the structure is not yet fully developed. The key resistance to watch is 3245. Unless this level is broken, gold could be forming a horizontal or slightly bearish flag beneath it.
Short-term support levels to monitor are 3200, 3175, and 3130 for now. These will be updated as the price action evolves.
GOLD BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
GOLD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,224.05
Target Level: 3,072.86
Stop Loss: 3,325.09
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 6h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Crude oil---sell near 64.00, target 62.00-60.00Crude oil market analysis:
Crude oil has been falling recently. Under the pressure of tariffs, the decline of crude oil is very large. In addition, the previously released crude oil inventory data also shows its weakness. The weekly line closed with a cross star, and the lower shadow is very long. The possibility of a unilateral decline in crude oil this week is small, and the possibility of fluctuations is greater. The position of 65.30 is its suppression. Look for selling opportunities in the Asian session of 63.50-65.30 today. The other 58.00 of crude oil is support.
Operational suggestions:
Crude oil---sell near 64.00, target 62.00-60.00
DeGRAM | GOLD reached the upper boundary of the channelGOLD is in an ascending channel between the trend lines.
The price is moving from the upper boundary of the channel and dynamic resistance.
The chart formed a harmonic pattern, and after testing the channel it formed a long legged doji and a bearish takeover.
We expect a correction.
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Hanzo | Gold 15 min Breaks – Will Confirm the Next Move🆚 Gold
The Path of Precision – Hanzo’s Market Strike
🔥 Key Levels & Breakout Strategy – 15M TF
🔥 Deep market insight – no random moves, only calculated execution.
☄️ Bearish Setup After Break Out – 3212 Zone
Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move.
🩸 15M Time Frame Confluence
————
CHoCH & Liquidity Grab @ 3245
Key Level / Equal lows Formation - 3212
Strong Rejection from 3100 – The Ultimate Pivot
Strong Rejection from 3240 – The Ultimate Pivot
Strong Rejection from 3200 – The Ultimate Pivot
🔥 1H Time Frame Confirmation
Twin Wicks @ 3212 – Liquidity Engineered
Twin Wicks @ 3168 – Liquidity Engineered
Twin Wicks @ 3135 zone – Liquidity Engineered
☄️ 4H Historical Market Memory
——
💯 3 Apr 2025 – Bullish Retest 3054
💯 27 march 2025 – Bullish Retest / Spike 3054
💯 26 March 2025 – Liquidity Grab Range 3016 : 3010
👌 The Market Has Spoken – Are You Ready to Strike?
WHY USDJPY BULLISH ??DETAILED ANALYSISUSDJPY is currently reacting strongly from a well-established demand zone near the 142.50–143.00 level. After a sharp correction, price has shown signs of exhaustion at support, suggesting a potential bullish reversal is underway. If this bounce sustains, we could see a significant upside move toward the 157.00 region, aligning with the previous high and maintaining the longer-term bullish structure.
From a technical standpoint, this level has historically acted as a key pivot zone. The bullish engulfing candlestick pattern forming here hints at renewed buyer interest, and with risk-reward highly favorable, this could be an ideal entry point for swing traders. The risk remains limited below 139.00, while the upside potential offers over 1:3 reward.
Fundamentally, the divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan continues to support a bullish outlook for USDJPY. Recent U.S. inflation data came in hotter than expected, reigniting speculation that the Fed may delay rate cuts. Meanwhile, the BoJ has shown minimal inclination to shift away from ultra-loose policy, keeping the yen pressured.
This pair remains one of the top-watched on TradingView, drawing high search volume due to its volatility and potential breakout structure. With market sentiment leaning risk-on and yield differentials favoring the dollar, this rebound from support could be the beginning of a new leg up. Keep an eye on DXY movements and U.S. treasury yields for confirmation.
USOIL: Tech Clues for Next - Week MovesOn Friday, the crude oil market showed a slight rebound, and the daily line finally closed as a small positive line. From the perspective of the weekly line, a positive line doji pattern was formed. This series of price movements indicates that the price of crude oil seems to have shown a short - term stabilization signal. However, when looking at the overall market trend, the bearish forces still dominate.
In terms of technical analysis, on the 1 - hour chart, a golden cross has occurred, breaking through the resistance and leading to an upward movement. On the 2 - hour and 3 - hour charts, the price is supported by the MA38 moving average and is moving upward. Additionally, on the 4 - hour chart, a golden cross is about to form.
Based on this, in terms of trading strategies, it is recommended to adopt an approach that mainly focuses on shorting with occasional long positions as a supplement. Given the current market situation, one can first pay attention to the volatile rebound. In the short term, investors can consider taking appropriate long positions. It should be noted with particular emphasis that there is a strong resistance level in the range of 62.5 - 63.5 above. This area will pose a crucial constraint on the extent of the rebound in oil prices.
USOIL
buy@60.8-61.3
tp:62-62.5
Investment itself doesn't carry risks; it's only when investment is out of control that risks arise. When trading, always remember not to act on impulse. I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate without any mistakes for a whole month. No matter what gains or losses you've had in the past, with my help, you have the hope of achieving a breakthrough in your investment.
Traders, if this concept fits your style or you have insights, comment! I'm keen to hear.
XAUUSD Reversal imminent. Potential short-term top reached.Gold (XAUUSD) hit the 1-month Higher Highs trend-line and has started to form a short-term Top. The last two short-term High sequences peaked on the 2nd High and pulled-back to at least the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
The peak formation on the 4H RSI of those two sequences was demonstrated with Lower Highs. Similarly the most optimal short-term buy was when the 4H RSI got oversold below 30.00. At the same time, the price hit the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
But for now, the best action is to sell and take profit when the price makes contact with the 4H MA50.
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Gold can make correction to mirorr line, after upward movementHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. After a strong breakout from the support area between 2975 - 3000 points, the price continued moving upward, forming an impulsive rally. This movement brought the asset directly into the upper support area, now acting as resistance, between 3195 - 3170 points. Once inside this zone, the bullish momentum began to slow down. This area also aligns with previous local highs and is showing clear signs of selling pressure. The recent reaction from the top of the zone suggests that the market could be preparing for a pullback. If this reaction develops further, I expect the price to head toward the mirror line, which currently acts as a dynamic support level, located around TP1 - 3120 points. This line has historically served as a key structure level - first as resistance, then flipped into support - and now may once again act as a magnet for price. A retest of this level would not break the overall bullish structure but could provide a healthy correction before the next leg. Considering the sharp push into resistance, the potential loss of bullish momentum, and the nearby structural support at 3120 points, I remain bearish in the short term, expecting a local decline. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Crude Oil Holds Rebound Above $55Crude oil's sharp rebound from the $55 support—aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the 2020–2022 uptrend—faced immediate resistance at the long-standing support-turned-resistance zone around $63.80, established in 2021.
A decisive move above $63.80 may clear the way for further gains toward $66, $68, $69.60, and ultimately $73. On the downside, a drop below $58 would bring $55 back into focus.
A clean break below that level could trigger further downside toward $49 per barrel, which aligns with the lower boundary of crude oil's long-term uptrend.
With global powers competing for oil, key events this week include:
🔹 OPEC report amid tariffs and efforts to regain market share
🔹 US–China trade talks
🔹 Chinese GDP, IP, Retail Sales (Wed)
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT