Commodities
USOIL H1 | Bullish Bounce offBased on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our buy entry at 69.65, which is a pullback support
Our take profit will be at 70.50, a pullback resistance.
The stop loss will be placed at 68.93, which is an overlap support level.
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What’s Flowing: XAU/AUD Bullish MomentumKey Observations:
1. Support Levels Hold:
• XAU/AUD has established strong support near 46,800 AUD, forming a base for a potential rebound.
2. Trend Reversal Indications:
• Volume Profile Analysis indicates buyers stepping in around the Point of Control (POC), confirming accumulation in the lower range.
• A breakout above 47,637 AUD highlights bullish momentum gaining strength.
3. Bullish Targets:
• Short-term target: 48,253 AUD, aligning with the Value Area High (VAH).
• Extended target: 50,000 AUD, should momentum sustain.
4. News Flow Insights:
• Positive sentiment in gold markets due to global uncertainties and potential rate adjustments.
• Market talk highlights consistent buying, especially in regions with heightened demand like India and China.
5. Risk Management:
• Stop Loss: Below 46,800 AUD.
• Take Profit: Incrementally at resistance zones (48,253 AUD, 50,000 AUD).
Context:
XAU/AUD reflects a favorable environment for safe-haven assets amidst global market uncertainties. Gold’s bullish seasonal trend adds strength to the outlook.
This is an excellent opportunity for traders and investors seeking upside exposure. Stay tuned for updates!
Trading in the 2633~2655 range before ADPGold maintains a wide range of fluctuations, and the range of 2630-2660 is adjusted. The release of news data today will determine whether gold can break the balance, but the rebound of gold is a high-rise fall, indicating that there are still many resistances above, and the rebound in the Asian session continues to be short. The roller coaster has fluctuated back and forth in the past few days, and many people have no idea where to start. Today's ADP is an opportunity, which may break the recent balance and move in the direction.
Gold continues to fluctuate in the 1 hour, and the 1-hour moving average of gold continues to cross downward to form a dead cross. If it continues to go down, then gold may open up downward space. Gold rebounded last night and fell under the pressure of the 2655 line of resistance. Gold bulls are still unable to do so. Gold continues to sell at highs below 2655 in the Asian session, and gold rebounds near 2655 and can continue to be short.
First support: 2633, second support: 2621, third support: 2605
First resistance: 2652, second resistance: 2662, third resistance: 2675
Trading strategy:
2633~2655 range sell high and buy low
XAUUSDGold prices have recovered slightly, trading at $2,639.97 an ounce, marking a modest gain of 0.20% over the past 24 hours. The recovery comes after a recent decline, driven by a stronger US dollar and rising US Treasury yields.
The current rise reflects cautious optimism among investors as the market awaits key economic data from the United States. The upcoming labor market report is expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy, especially its stance on interest rates.
Despite the temporary relief, gold remains sensitive to moves in the dollar and bond yields. Market focus on key economic indicators could shape the trajectory of gold in the coming sessions, keeping traders on their toes.
A break below 2635 could prompt a steeper decline for XAUUSDTechnical Perspective:
Gold hovers between the 2635 - 2650 range and holds above the short-term ascending trend line. If the price closes below the 2635 support with a bearish breakout of the ascending channel, the price could extend its decline to the following support at 2610.00. Conversely, a break above 2650 could prompt a further rise toward the following resistance at 2665.
Fundamental Perspective:
Gold consolidated as investors weighed the political and economic outlook while awaiting key economic data. A stronger-than-expected US job openings report pointed to resilience in the labor market, with markets now focused on Friday's non-farm payrolls and upcoming speeches from Fed officials to gauge potential policy moves. The likelihood of a 25bps rate cut from the Federal Reserve, now at 73%, supports gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding the asset. Additionally, geopolitical risks continue to bolster gold's safe-haven appeal.
Elsewhere, Asian markets were rattled after South Korean President Yoon's unexpected decision to impose martial law, only to swiftly reverse course hours later, causing stocks to tumble initially.
The Kospi Index dropped as much as 2%, with South Korean assets seeing widespread losses overnight, while equities in Sydney slipped and Tokyo markets opened flat.
Despite the turmoil, South Korea's central bank signaled readiness to intervene if necessary, soothing market concerns.
Author: Li Xing Gan, CMT, CFTe,
Financial Market Strategist Consultant to Exness
2024-12-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil futures - Neutral. Bulls did what they had to, to prevent a flush down to 66. Market traded above 70 and we made a higher low. Bulls would need to print 71.5 for a higher high and I can’t see that happening as of now. Chop between 68 and 70 is most likely here.
comment : Midpoint of this triangle is around 69.3 and this will be a magnet until we either make higher highs or lower lows. It’s a trading range, don’t over analyze it.
current market cycle : trading range (big triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 66 - 70
bull case: Bulls had a decent day and turned the market completely neutral again. Only above 71.5 they are favored for higher prices. For tomorrow I expect some more sideways price action between 69 and 70.5.
Invalidation is below 66.27
bear case : Bears need to keep it below 71.5 or we are making higher highs again. They tried to close below 68 for 4 days and today we saw bears giving up on it. Bears are still favored to keep it inside the triangle, so either play the range or don’t trade at all. Betting on a huge breakout is not a decent strategy after going sideways for so long.
Invalidation is above 71.5.
short term: Neutral inside the triangle. Area round 70.5 should be huge resistance.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10 : Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Could have longed anywhere and made money. 1h 20ema is strong support until broken.
Chopping in the Oil: What the Charts and Sentiment Are Tell UsA few words about the sentiment in oil.
Graphically, the price is chopping around in a range, and there aren’t any clear indicators on where it might break out.
However, there are some signs: the options sentiment shows a slight positive bias, with decent portfolios of vertical spreads targeting above $75 gaining traction, although it’s still pretty questionable.
The positions of hedgers and other commercials are close to the maximum levels where we’ve seen reversals in oil prices over the last two years.In other words, the COT reports are also signaling that we’re not likely to head down, or we might see a false breakout followed by a reversal.
So, the working hypothesis for now is that oil is close to a local minimum, but the final word will come from the graphical models on the chart. Personally, I’m keeping an eye on an interesting trigger level at $73.47. I’ll be assessing oil’s prospects based on that level.
WTI CRUDE OIL: targeting 95.00 with support by the 1M MA100.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.599, MACD = -0.340, ADX = 19.425) as the price hasn't practically moved for 3 straight weeks. Even the 1W RSI remains neutral (RSI = 46.004) as the last 4 candles have closed inside the 1M MA50 - 1M MA100 range. The 1M MA100 is basically supporting the pattern since April 2021. As long as it does, chances are will see a strong rebound to the R1 level, a price action much like what followed the 2013 consolidation that pivoted to Leg (4).
A similar S1 Zone was supporting on the 1M MA100. Consequently, we turn bullish on WTI expecting a R1 test in the coming months (TP = 95.00).
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XAUUSD: Neutral on 1D but expecting a bullish breakout soon.Gold is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.080, MACD = -4.570, ADX = 25.048) as the price is ranged between the 1D MA50 and 1D MA100, on the lower band of the 7 month Channel Up. This suggests that there is significant upside potential to Gold on the medium term and the flat 1D MACD indicates high degree of similarity with June 2024 when the price was again ranged between the 1D MA50 and the bottom of the Channel.
All bullish waves that started after lows, reached at least the previosu R1 level and that is our current target (TP = 2,790).
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Metals & Miners Are About To EXPLODE HIGHER (50%-100%+)Please don't miss this opportunity.
I've been studying the metals charts, and last weekend, the SILJ chart caught my attention.
I started looking at longer intervals (Weekly and Monthly) to see what I could find.
XME and SILJ are showing excellent Inverted Excess Phase Peak patterns that may resolve as a breakaway upward price trend over the next 8 to 24+ months - sending both XME and SILJ over 40-50% higher at a minimum.
This sounds crazy, but Metals and Miners are probably the best opportunities for swing position trading right now as hedge investments and/or very long-term options play.
There is nothing else out there that has a 100-200% rally potential and the ability to hedge against global risk factors.
I believe SILJ, XME, Gold, Silver, & Platinum will likely be HUGE WINNERS over the next 12-24+ months.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Another great day on the charts today, allowing us to continue to track and trade our route map.
Playing in a tight range today and therefore not much update needed from yesterday. We are in a similar play range, as price is still within the retracement range, allowing us to buy dips into 2647. We need a ema5 cross and lock above 2647 for a continuation above.
Our lower weighted levels are in place for bounces inline with our plans to buy dips, should we see a failure to lock above and see a drop below.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2668
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2668 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2696
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2696 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2713
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2713 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2733
BEARISH TARGETS
2647 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2647 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2631 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2631 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2609 - 2592
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD → Consolidation. One step away from distribution...FX:XAUUSD is faltering a bit due to high risks before the news. In the moment a strong impulse can be formed. The price is consolidating in the local range. Earlier, the price broke the local upward support....
Traders are consolidating in anticipation of economic data. Volatility is decreasing, speculators are not ready to take risks yet, all attention is focused on PMI, Powell's speech on Thursday and NFP on Friday... A rebound in US dollar demand early Tuesday kept gold buyers on the back foot. China's ongoing economic problems and the threat of global tariffs from Trump, geopolitical tensions in eastern Europe and escalating conflict in the Middle East continue to weigh on investor sentiment.
The future direction of the gold price is likely to depend on upcoming employment data and its impact on expectations of a Fed rate cut
Resistance levels: 2660, 2655
Support levels: 2634, 2618, 2605
Since there is no even direction on the market and the price is inside the channel, we will consider trading from its borders. Therefore, a false break of the key resistance may provoke a fall to the support of the range.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
Still firmly short goldBros, gold has failed to effectively break through 2650 during the rebound process many times, so gold is still in a weak position. If there is no special news affecting the market, gold will continue to fall after consuming a certain amount of bullish energy, and may even drop to the 2600-2590 area. So in terms of trading, we can temporarily maintain the attitude of shorting gold.
Bros, are you as bearish on gold as I am? If you want to learn more detailed trading ideas and get more trading signals, you can choose to join the channel at the bottom of the article to make trading no longer difficult and make making money a pleasure!
USOIL On The Rise! BUY!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on USOIL and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 68.11 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 69.36
Safe Stop Loss - 67.32
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
XauUsd Sell Limit OrderHi everyone. We have a strong pullback and I think this area can be a good place to set a sell order. Please consider the risk management and good luck.
Dear traders, please support my ideas with your likes and comments to motivate me to publish more signals and analysis with you.
Best Regards
Navid Nazarian
GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)Price action has been playing PERFECTLY & following the arrows I drew out on the first analysis! Price has been ranging as I expected & currently in the process of creating a 'flat correction' according to my EW Theory strategy.
However, I will be careful as it is a new month so I wouldn't be surprised if price shoots up so the monthly candle can grab liquidity & create a wick. Keeping an eye out for this option.
XAU/USD (Gold) - H1 - Triangle BreakoutThe XAU/USD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming Days.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 2652
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 2711
2nd Resistance – 2748
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
GOLD - Price can correct to support line and start to riseHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago price entered to rising channel, where it rose to $2715 level and broke it, after which made retest.
Then it rose to resistance line of channel, after which little declined and then continued to grow.
When price rose to $2790 points, it turned around and started to decline, thereby exiting from channel.
Gold continued to fall inside triangle, where it fell until to $2537 points, breaking $2715 and $2605 levels.
Price rose to resistance line, breaking $2605 level, after which made correction and now XAU rising near support line.
Possibly, Gold can bounce up from support line to $2715 resistance level, exiting from triangle.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️