Commodities
GOLD - New All-Time High Again? Where Will This End? Current Price Action:
Gold (XAUUSD) has reached another record high at 3,175.06 on the 4-hour chart, showing strong bullish momentum. The price is currently hovering around 3,127.07 after a minor pullback from the peak.
Key Levels:
Resistance: The all-time high at 3,175.06 is now the key level to watch. A break above could signal continuation of the rally.
Support: Immediate support sits at 3,127.20, with 3,150.00 acting as additional support. A drop below 3,127 could indicate a deeper correction.
Market Context:
The repeated tests of new highs suggest strong buying pressure, though the recent pullback shows some profit-taking. The 3,150 level has flipped from resistance to support, which is a bullish sign.
Trading Considerations:
- Long positions may consider entries near 3,127-3,150 with stops below 3,120, targeting 3,175 and beyond
- Short-term traders might watch for rejection at 3,175 for potential reversal plays
- The overall trend remains strongly bullish, but extended moves often see sharp corrections
Volume and Momentum:
The current pullback appears on relatively low volume, suggesting this may be a temporary pause rather than a trend reversal.
Final Thoughts:
Gold continues its historic rally with no clear resistance in sight. While the trend favors buyers, traders should remain cautious of potential profit-taking at these elevated levels.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Always conduct your own research before trading.
GOLD corrects after hot rally, conditions remain optimisticOANDA:XAUUSD has retreated from an all-time high of $3,167.67/oz as investors began to take profits after a “parabolic” rally. While the rally was initially fueled by safe-haven demand stemming from US President Donald Trump’s plans for higher tariffs, questions are starting to arise about the sustainability of the rally as buying pressure wanes and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves into overbought territory.
Gold has rallied 19% so far in 2025 and this correction could be temporary
Gold prices have rallied 19% this year, supported by multiple macro uncertainties, historic central bank buying and continued inflows into ETFs. Despite the current pullback, from a fundamental perspective, this does not impact the overall bullish fundamental trend and the likelihood of near-term technical consolidation has begun to increase.
Trump’s tariffs a “catalyst” supporting the physical gold market?
Trump's proposal to impose 10% tariffs on most imports has stoked market concerns about slowing economic growth and rising business costs, while risk aversion has pushed gold prices higher.
However, the White House later clarified that "critical raw materials" including gold, copper and energy would be exempt, alleviating some concerns about supply chain disruptions and providing some support to the physical gold market.
Market sentiment remains bullish, with strong buying momentum on dips
Although the technical side is currently under some pressure, the market's optimism remains unshaken. It is difficult to try to assess the peak near the historical high, but it is clear that every pullback is quickly absorbed by buyers, which shows that the underlying bullish sentiment in the market is still strong.
Described by the sharp drop on Thursday, gold recovered very quickly after the drop.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold may enter a correction phase after a long period of hot growth, depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling below the overbought level, breaking the blue bullish channel. In the short term, if gold breaks below the short-term channel, converging with the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level, it will be in a position to correct further with the next target level around $3,066 in the short term, more than $3,040.
However, overall, gold still has a bullish technical outlook with the price channel as the long-term trend and the main support from the EMA21. As long as gold remains within the price channel and above the EMA21, the declines should be considered as corrections and not a trend. On the other hand, once gold recovers from the 0.50% Fibonacci extension and holds above the raw price point of $3,100, it will signal the end of the correction cycle, then the upside target will be the 0.786% Fibonacci extension in the short-term.
During the day, the long-term uptrend with the possibility of a short-term correction will be noticed again by the following positions.
Support: 3,086 – 3,066 – 3,040USD
Resistance: 3,100 – 3,106 – 3,135USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3147 - 3145⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 3151
→Take Profit 1 3139
↨
→Take Profit 2 3133
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3061 - 3063⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 3057
→Take Profit 1 3069
↨
→Take Profit 2 3075
Not Even Gold Escaped the Volatility of Liberation DayWe finally saw the shakeout on gold I was expecting around $3000. This clearly changes things for gold traders over the near-term, even though the fundamentals remain in place for bulls. I highlight key levels for gold and take a look at the devastation left across key assets on Thursday.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
OIL Today's strategyYesterday, after comprehensively studying the market data, I judged that the price of US Oil (USOIL) would enter a downward channel. According to my analysis, the oil price would experience a period of continuous decline. First, it would break through the key demarcation point, and then it was highly likely to consolidate near the previous low level. However, the market trend far exceeded expectations. Yesterday, the price of USOIL did not follow the regular pattern. After we exited the market with profits according to our strategy, it plummeted again and rapidly approached the previous low level.
Currently, all aspects of information point in a negative direction. From macroeconomic data to industry internal dynamics, there is nothing that provides favorable support for it. Based on this, I infer that today it is highly probable that the price will fall back to the previous low level.
OIL Today's strategy
sell@67.5-67
tp:66-65.5
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"Goooo...!!! Get to the safe-haven choppa!"And there we go... Market participants are in panic mode as tariff show kicks off. Everyone is trying to find a safe-haven like CHF and JPY. However, gold and silver are not the ones, where you need to be now.
Let's dig in!
TVC:GOLD
MARKETSCOM:USDCHF
MARKETSCOM:USDJPY
MARKETSCOM:JAPAN225
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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USOIL:Continue to move downwardAfter U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs and the OPEC+ decided to increase oil production, concerns about the demand outlook intensified, leading to a significant decline in crude oil prices on Thursday.
The short-term trend of crude oil has dropped sharply, with all the gains since mid-March being given back. The oil price has touched a low near 66. The moving average system diverges downward, and objectively, the short-term trend direction is downward. The bearish momentum is abundant. It is expected that after a minor adjustment at a low level in the intraday trading, the short-term trend of crude oil will mainly continue to move downward.
Trading Strategy:
buy@67.5-68
TP:66-65.5
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Bearish drop?The Silver (XAG/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 31.91
1st Support: 30.92
1st Resistance: 32.68
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Expand Energy (EXE) – Fueling Growth in the LNG BoomCompany Overview:
Expand Energy NASDAQ:EXE is strategically positioned near the Gulf Coast, enabling it to capitalize on rising global LNG demand with a disciplined growth strategy.
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Located near key export hubs, maximizing access to high-demand markets.
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Investment Outlook:
✅ Bullish Above: $95.00-$96.00
🚀 Upside Target: $140.00-$145.00
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Bearish drop?COPPER is reacting off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 5.0325
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 5.1220
Why we lik eit:
There is a pullback resistance levle that line sup with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 4.8933
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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XAUUSD H1 | Bearish fall in the short termBased on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 3150.56, which is a pullback resistance.
Our take profit will be at 3132.63, a pullback support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 3168, which is a swing high resistance level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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XAUUSD Daily Trading Plan for April 3, 2025🧠 Smart Money Concepts x Fundamental Flow
Despite negative USD news (ADP & ISM) and Trump’s hawkish blurbs, Gold didn’t pop aggressively — it wicked up into premium supply, then quickly retraced. That’s a liquidity game, not a trend change (yet). Still bullish bias overall, but intraday looks mixed.
🧭 Bigger Picture – D1/H4
Price rejected strongly from the premium supply zone near 3144–3147, leaving a clear wick with imbalance underneath.
Bullish structure remains valid, but we're seeing a potential distribution pattern short-term.
Trendline liquidity & HLs are stacking up below, ideal for a grab.
🟩 Demand zones of interest:
3107–3115 (discount zone, strong reaction in prior sessions)
3086–3092 (last known rally base)
📌 Key Zones
🔵 Premium supply: 3144–3147
🟡 Buyside liquidity: 3147–3155
🟦 Sellside liquidity grab zone: 3107–3115
🟢 Strong demand: 3086–3092
🔴 Major liquidity draw: 3180 zone (untouched weekly magnet)
🧩 SCENARIO 1 – 🐂 “Power of Discount” Buy Setup
“When in doubt, hunt the imbalance out.”
Price dips toward 3115–3107, taps imbalance + OB, shows M5/MS shift
Confirmation + sniper long
TP1: 3142 (last high), TP2: 3180 if momentum kicks in
🎯 Confluences:
Discount OB zone + unfilled imbalance
Trendline tap + BOS + liquidity grab
Weak DXY context
🧩 SCENARIO 2 – 🐂 Trap, Swipe & Rally Buy
Deep sweep to 3086 zone
Reversal signs after stop hunt / equal low grab
Entry on CHoCH or breaker retest (M15 or M5)
TP1: 3140, TP2: 3180
💡 This is the “maximum pain = maximum profit” play.
🧩 SCENARIO 3 – 🐻 Premium Rejection Intraday Sell
“Supply hits, market flips.”
Price tests 3144–3147 again in early session
No BOS on M5, shows weakness (M5/M15 LH + CHoCH)
Sell into imbalance zones
TP1: 3127, TP2: 3110
⚠️ Only take this if we don’t break above 3147. Watch liquidity wicks!
🧩 SCENARIO 4 – 🐻 Fake Pump & Dump
Price spikes through PDH, into 3155–3160
Quick rejection (news-induced spike or algo trap)
Sell setup on lower TF reversal after liquidity sweep
TP to 3115 zone
🎭 A classic “grab & go” trap. Great RR but needs discipline.
📰 Macro Watch – April 3, 2025
Fed speakers are lining up — watch for dollar volatility 👀
China PMI during Asia could boost metals
DXY might stay weak → keep gold supported
Gold is at ATH regions = more manipulation + fakeouts!
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher on the daily chart. However, following the announcement of mutual tariffs after the previous session’s close, the index experienced a significant gap-down. On the daily chart, the MACD has crossed below the signal line, generating a sell signal, though confirmation is still pending. If today's session closes with a bearish candle, we must monitor whether this leads to a third wave of selling, signaling further downside.
Due to the gap-down, the price is now significantly distanced from the 3-day and 5-day moving averages (MAs), making it crucial to observe whether the price rebounds intraday or continues to decline further. With the first support level at 19,000 now breached, the next key support is around 18,500. When considering buy positions, it is essential to manage stop-loss risk carefully.
On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has appeared but is not yet confirmed. If confirmed, it could trigger a third wave of selling pressure, potentially leading to further declines. Given the increased market volatility, a cautious approach is recommended—reducing leverage and only trading at key price levels to minimize potential losses.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed higher while maintaining a range-bound movement around $72. On the daily chart, the MACD has moved above the signal line and the zero line, establishing a bullish trend. However, following the mutual tariff announcement, the price gapped down, dropping below $70. The strongest support zone lies around $68, making it crucial to observe whether the MACD adjusts and aligns with the signal line before rebounding from this support level to resume the bullish trend.
On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has appeared, but with multiple support levels nearby and both MACD and the signal line still above the zero line, the market is likely to attempt rebounds. A buy-the-dip approach remains favorable, but caution is necessary given today’s OPEC meeting, which could lead to increased volatility.
Gold
Gold closed higher, finding support at the 5-day MA. Following the mutual tariff announcement, the price initially gapped up to around 3,200, before pulling back. As previously mentioned, the upward target for this wave is around 3,216, with strong buying momentum continuing. On the daily chart, gold is trading between the 5-day MA and the upper Bollinger Band, maintaining a one-way bullish structure.
A bullish strategy remains favorable unless the daily close falls below the 10-day MA. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD remains above the zero line and previously attempted to break above the signal line but has since pulled back. Since buying momentum is still present, if the price finds support at a key supply zone, another leg higher could occur, potentially triggering a golden cross in the MACD and leading to a third wave of buying pressure.
Short positions should be approached with caution, and given the increased market volatility, risk management is crucial. Whether buying or selling, stop-loss discipline is essential to manage potential risks.
Market volatility has surged since the pre-market session due to Trump’s mutual tariff policies. Volatility is both an opportunity and a risk for traders. Do not let greed lead to losses in a market that doesn’t match your trading style. Adjust position sizes accordingly and only trade within your comfort zone. The market is always open. Do not focus solely on today—take a steady and stable approach to trading.
Wishing you a successful trading day!
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update Update For 4-2 : ConsolidationThis quick update shows why I believe the SPY/QQQ will struggle to make any big move as long as we stay within the 382-618 "Battle Zone".
The SPY continues to rally up into this zone and stall out. If the SPY stays within this zone, I believe the markets will simply roll around in a tight range and go nowhere today.
Thus, I published this article to warn traders not to expect any big trends until we breakout - away from this Fibonacci "Battle Zone".
You can't kick the markets to make it go anywhere. And, unless you are trading very short-term swings in price - you are probably better off sitting on the sidelines waiting for a broad market trend to establish.
This is a warning. As long as we stay in the Fibonacci "Battle Zone", price will struggle to build any major trend.
So, play your trades accordingly - or just take a break from trading while you wait for the markets to roll out of the "Battle Zone".
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Huge Buy for Gold XAUUSD (Trump announces tariffs of up to 25%)How Trump’s 25% Auto Tariffs Could Be a Huge Buy Signal for Gold
The proposed 25% tariffs on automobile imports to the U.S. by former President Donald Trump could have significant economic consequences, many of which could drive gold prices higher. Here’s why:
1. Trade War Fears and Market Uncertainty
A new wave of tariffs could escalate tensions with key trading partners, particularly the European Union, Japan, and South Korea, leading to retaliatory tariffs and a potential global trade war.
Uncertainty in global trade historically increases demand for gold as investors seek a safe haven from market volatility.
2. Higher Inflation and Rising Costs
Tariffs would increase the price of imported cars, leading to higher inflation in the U.S.
Rising inflation typically weakens consumer purchasing power and drives investors toward gold, a traditional inflation hedge.
3. Economic Slowdown and Risk of Recession
Automakers and suppliers may cut jobs or reduce production, impacting economic growth.
A slowing economy could trigger rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which would lower bond yields and make gold even more attractive as a non-yielding asset.
4. Pressure on the U.S. Dollar
Trade conflicts can destabilize the U.S. dollar, especially if major economies reduce reliance on U.S. exports or retaliate with their own tariffs.
A weaker dollar increases the price of gold, as gold becomes cheaper for foreign investors.
5. Central Bank Demand and Gold Accumulation
If economic uncertainty rises, central banks may increase gold reserves, further boosting demand.
We’ve already seen major central banks accumulating gold at record levels, and new trade disruptions could accelerate this trend.
Conclusion: A Strong Bull Case for Gold
If Trump’s 25% auto tariffs take effect, they could trigger inflation, market volatility, and economic slowdown, all of which are bullish for gold. With central banks buying aggressively and rate cuts likely on the horizon, this could be a major buying opportunity for gold traders.
Would you buy gold in this scenario? Let me know in the comments! 🚀
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-2 : GAP Reversal Counter TrendToday's pattern suggests price may attempt to move downward in early trading, trying to find support near recent lows, then potentially roll a bit higher.
I do expect price to move into a downward price trend - attempting to break below the 549 price level and targeting the 535-545 target Fib level this week.
Today, Thursday, and Friday are all GAP/Breakaway types of patterns. So we should be entering an expansion of price trend and I believe that trend will be to the downside.
Gold and Silver are nearing a Flag Apex level. Very exciting for a potential breakout rally driving Gold up above $3250 and Silver up above $36.
I personally believe there is nothing stopping Gold and Silver in this rally phase until Gold reaches levels above $4500. GET SOME.
BTCUSD had a very interesting spike low. I still believe BTCUSD will roll downward - targeting the $76-78k level, then break downward towards the $60k level. Time will tell.
The rest of this week should be very exciting with the Breakaway and GAP patterns.
Get some.
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Using The CRADLE Pattern To Time/Execute TradesThis simple video highlights one of my newest pattern definitions - the Cradle Pattern.
In addition to the many other patterns my technology identified, this Cradle Pattern seems to be a constant type of price construct.
I'm sharing it with all of you so you can learn how to identify it and use it for your trading.
Ideally, this pattern represents FLAGGING after a trend phase.
It is a consolidation of price within a flag after a broad trending phase.
It usually resolves in the direction of the major trend, but can present a very solid reversal trigger if the upper/lower pullback range is broken (see the examples in this video).
Learn it. Use it.
Price is the ultimate indicator.
Learn to read price data more efficiently to become a better trader.
Get some.
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XAUUSD: Continuing the journey to increase sharply?Hello to all speculators!
After carefully examining our 1-hour chart, it is evident that the uptrend remains intact. Despite some minor corrections, the upward momentum persists, especially after gold successfully broke through the previous resistance barrier. There are no signs of slowing down, indicating that the global uptrend foundation remains solid. A potential new bullish wave may emerge at this high level, continuing the long-term upward trend observed in recent weeks.
Gary's target is to surpass the peak of $3,167 and aim for new highs in the near future.
If you find this information helpful, don’t forget to like and follow Gary for the latest updates!