Commodities
GOLD → A reversal pattern for a further fallHello, my wonderful friends, Ben here!
Gold prices are currently testing key levels of interest during a corrective phase against the trend, following a breakout from a significant level. The fundamental backdrop is not particularly favorable, with the market under consistent downward pressure.
The bearish sentiment around gold is intensifying as U.S. Treasury yields continue to climb, and the USD strengthens toward the end of the week, reducing the appeal of the precious metal. Notably, the US Dollar Index has recorded its fourth consecutive week of gains, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains near its highest level since early May.
Looking ahead, the market's focus remains on the return of President-elect Donald Trump and the potential impact of his inflationary policies, which could have significant implications for the Federal Reserve's outlook in 2025. Stay cautious!
From a technical perspective, the price is currently trading within a short-term descending channel, formed after the termination of a rising wedge pattern. The outlook suggests a higher probability of further declines. The 2622 level is a critical threshold—if sellers maintain pressure below this zone, the downtrend could extend further, with potential targets at 2605 and 2596, among others.
Best regards,
Bentradegold!
Gold Prices Today (December 31): Broad Decline Across the BoardHello, dear friends! Ben here!
Spot gold has successfully climbed past the $2,600 mark during the U.S. trading session, continuing its retreat from Friday's peak of $2,638.
Driving the current sentiment is the U.S. dollar (USD), which gained strength as Wall Street opened amidst lackluster performance in local indices. Weak trading volumes further intensified the drop in equities, fueling a short-term rally in the USD. Yet, despite these temporary setbacks, the three major indices are on track to close another year with impressive gains.
Meanwhile, market participants are shedding high-yield assets as uncertainty looms over what 2025 may bring. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has signaled its intent to slow the pace of rate cuts, given that inflation remains stubbornly high. Adding to the tension, former President Donald Trump is set to return to the White House on January 20, with his anticipated protectionist policies likely to exacerbate inflationary pressures in the years ahead.
Given these dynamics, a bearish outlook on gold remains dominant in the short and medium term. Attention is centered around the 2,610 resistance level—so long as sellers defend this zone, gold appears poised to decline further, with potential targets in the 2,596–2,587 range.
What are your thoughts? Share your insights, forecasts, and questions—let’s explore the ongoing dynamics of XAUUSD together!
USOIL:Latest trading opportunities.
USOIL: The current position is around 71.2. According to the quotation of tradingbiew.
From a macro analysis, as a strategic reserve, the rise of oil is inevitable. From the perspective of long-term trading, buying is feasible. Short-term observation. "Whether OPEC+ will cut production" is an important factor in the upward trend of oil prices. From the perspective of short-term trends, buying is still feasible. In the short term, we need to pay attention to the price around 73.5. Because there is a major support below. If you can accept a price fluctuation of 20 points, then there is room for profit in buying. Stop loss and take profit are ±2 respectively. The current price is 71.2. Remember to take profit in time after making a profit.
TVC:USOIL FX:USOIL
XAUUSD sell-to-buy setup updateOn our previous analysis on Gold, we were ready to take a sell-to-buy trade meaning we would be selling into an area where we would later want to buy at. Price did push till our area of interest however it did not push enough to trigger our sell positions. However, we are happy to see that price is going into the anticipated direction.
Bearish hammer on 6M chartI sold all of my AMEX:SILJ last week, which I'd typically wait for the yearly candle to close but it seemed like it was barely holding on by a thread and might not wait the few more days. Then the bottom completely fell out this morning. Whew, close call
The 6M candle looks like death. I'm still very bullish on silver as a LT play but I don't want to be out on the edge of the risk curve while the market pukes. Next major support is around $6.
Trade Idea 2024-12-30 and Review of 2024As the year comes to a close, we expect it to be a quiet week. If you haven’t already, now is an excellent time to set your trading goals for the coming year. Where will your focus be? Which markets will you trade actively? What is your risk management plan?
It is also a good time to complete a review for 2024 if you have not already! Keeping a trading journal is essential for tracking progress and learning from your mistakes.
Active trading, like other high-performance activities, requires resilience, focus, and a winning mindset, but even with these attributes, losses are a natural part of the process. Always trade with a clear plan, manage your risks effectively, and never trade with more capital than you can afford to lose.
As we wrap up the year, we are sharing a couple of the most popular charts we reviewed in 2024 and reflecting on the following questions we asked ourselves:
What has the market done?
What is it trying to do?
How good of a job is it doing?
What is likely to happen from here?
Volume profile provides key insights into market auction and interaction of buyers and sellers.
This is how we approach markets although there are many other ways of doing so.
Big Picture ES Futures:
Key Levels:
2024 mid point: 5574.50
2024 VPOC: 5441.75
2024 Value Area High: 5844.25
2024 High: 6184.50
Fib Extensions Target 1: 6388
Fib Extension Target 2: 6514.25
Fib Extension Target 3: 6590.75
Fib Extension Target 4: 6695.50
Big Picture BTC Futures:
Key Levels:
2024 High: 108,960
2024 Mid point: 77,865
2024 VPOC: 69,710
2024 Value Area High: 79,525
Key Support for Bulls: 78,000 - 76,000
Big Picture CL Futures:
Key Levels:
Composite Value Area High: 79.65
2024 Value Area High: 74.90
2024 Mid point: 72.14
2024 VPOC: 69.70
2024 Value Area Low: 66.70
Composite Value Area Low: 63.55
We await the start of the new year to further gauge short term price action, volume and ranges for the upcoming year! Happy trading from EdgeClear! We wish you all a great 2025!
Disclaimer: The views expressed are opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
Oil Long 4HThis trade idea is based solely on Price Action. I observed that oil has broken the previous neckline, and I expect a pullback to the golden zone of the Fibonacci retracement for the previous leg. Before entering the trade, I'm looking for confirmation on a lower time frame, such as the 30-minute chart. An ideal confirmation would form a 'W' pattern, preferably with a higher low in the second leg.
69.20-69 is the entry zone with almost 50 pips SL
NuScale Power (SMR) - Cup and Handle Breakout, Target $25 - $40Overview:
NuScale Power Corporation (NYSE: SMR) is showing a bullish Cup and Handle pattern, a classic setup that often precedes a significant upward move. The cup has formed over the past few months, and the stock is currently in the handle formation, signaling a potential breakout.
Technical Setup:
Pattern: Cup and Handle
Breakout Level: ~$20.31 (current resistance area)
Target Zone: $25.37, $33.65, and $40.57 (potential targets based on previous resistance levels and measured move)
Handle Formation: The current consolidation in a descending channel within the handle adds to the potential breakout strength.
Price Action:
A breakout above the $20.31 level would confirm the cup and handle pattern, with the first target around $25.37 and higher targets up to $40.57.
The price could continue to consolidate within the handle for the next couple of weeks before making a decisive move, making now a good time to watch for a breakout.
Risk Management:
A drop below the $18 level would negate the setup, suggesting further consolidation or a potential reversal.
Catalysts:
Watch for upcoming earnings and other news that could act as a catalyst for the breakout.
Gold Spot (XAU/USD) Analysis on the 1-Hour TimeframeKey Levels and Observations
The black horizontal lines on the chart represent monthly support and resistance levels, which are critical zones for price reactions.
Significant levels include:
Support Levels: 2600, 2580, 2560
Resistance Levels: 2620, 2640, 2660
Momentum and Price Behavior
On the 1-hour timeframe, bearish momentum appears stronger as the red (bearish) candles are relatively larger than the green (bullish) ones.
The price has tested the 2600 support level twice but has failed to generate a strong rebound, suggesting possible weakness in buying pressure.
Possible Scenarios:
If Support at 2600 Holds:
The price could consolidate above this level, potentially targeting higher resistance zones like 2620 or 2640.
If 2600 Breaks:
A break below 2600 could lead to further downside movement, with 2580 and 2560 as the next potential targets.
Market Outlook
For now, the price appears to be stuck in a tight range between 2600 and 2620, indicating consolidation.
Traders should wait for a clear breakout or reversal around the key levels before making decisions.
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Great start to the week with our chart idea playing out, as analysed.
We are still seeing price play between the two weighted levels and started the day with our bullish target test 2629, which just fell short but can be considered as done. No cross and lock above confirmed the rejection and now we are seeing price head towards the lower weighted level for a test. We need ema5 to cross and lock above or below the weighted Goldturns to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2629
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2629 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2655
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2655 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2694
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2694 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2726
BEARISH TARGETS
2600
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2600 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2561
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2561 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2519 - 2486
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Trading Plan: WTI Crude OilBased on my proprietary indicators, I maintain a bearish view on WTI Crude Oil. I am anticipating a downside target of ₹5800 (target open until 15th January 2025).
Current Position:
Holding short positions in MCX Crude Oil January 2025 expiry futures from ₹6025 levels.
Intend to add more shorts if prices move to higher levels.
Risk Management:
Stop-loss and risk parameters are carefully planned but not disclosed here for strategic reasons.
Position sizing is aligned with my overall risk appetite and trading capital.
Disclaimer:
This trading plan represents my personal views and trading decisions and is shared for informational purposes only.
Trading in crude oil futures involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors.
Readers should not consider this as financial advice and must conduct their own research or consult with a certified financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions.
Past performance of proprietary indicators is not indicative of future results.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12/30 : GAP ReversalThis week should resolve as a Momentum Rally in the SPY/QQQ. Yet, I believe price action will be very volatile as we are still transitioning through the holidays.
Overall, I expect the SPY/QQQ to attempt to mount a fairly solid rally this week - possibly attempting to reach new All-Time highs again.
Then, I believe the SPY/QQQ will move into an extended topping pattern over the next 2+ weeks - resulting in a breakdown trend after the Inauguration.
Gold and Silver appear to be trying to base/bottom and we may see a decent rally in metals this week. I hope so because I don't believe Metals should be this low compared to the risk factors throughout the global markets.
Bitcoin is transitioning through an EPP pattern Flag breakdown event. If this continues, I suspect we'll see a downward price move targeting $74k before the end of January 2025.
Remember, my Daily/Weekly Cycle Patterns are designed to help us plan and prepare for market opportunities. No, they are not 100% perfect all the time. But I don't know of anything else that can attempt to accurately identify price trends, setups, events weeks and months into the future.
2025 is going to be a great year for traders. Remember, it is all about what you can do with the information I share to profit from these moves.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Gold Price Consolidation with Bearish Outlook Below 2620Gold Technical Analysis
The price today is expected to consolidate between 2,620 and 2,605 until a breakout occurs.
Initially, the price is likely to drop below 2,620 toward the support level at 2,605. Breaking below this level could extend the bearish movement toward 2,585.
However, a 4-hour candle must close above 2,620 to target 2,636.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 2620
Resistance Levels: 2636, 2645, 2653
Support Levels: 2605, 2591, 2585
Trend Outlook:
Bearish below 2620
Bullish above 2636
Gold Oscillation Runs, Analysis and Signal UpdatesThe gold structure adjusts the short-term price around the MA10 daily moving average of 2620 to form a narrow range of 2610/2640. The RS1 indicator has not yet shown an obvious strong signal, and the value of the central axis 50 continues to be flat. The Bollinger band of the short-term four-hour chart is sideways, and the Bollinger band channel is narrowly consolidated. The trading idea at the beginning of the week continues to look at the 2610/40 range to sell high and buy low to participate in short-term trading.
Gold is still oscillating in a large range in 1 hour. Gold is running below 2640 on Friday. If gold is under pressure at 2640 today, then gold will continue to be bearish. Gold rebounded to a high of 2635 in the US market on Friday and was blocked. Gold rebounded near 2635 today and can continue to be sold.
First support: 2613, second support: 2606, third support: 2593
First resistance: 2632, second resistance: 2638, third resistance: 2650
Trading strategy:
BUY: 2615-2613, SL: 2604, TP: 2630-2640;
SELL: 2635-2637, SL: 2647, TP: 2620-2610;
GOLD - Price can correct to support line and then bounce upHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A few days ago price entered to triangle, where it at once broke $2700 level and then fell to support line of this pattern.
Also, Gold broke $2595 level, but some time later it turned around from support line and soon broke $2595 level again.
Later Gold rose to resistance zone, after which made correction and then reached support line of triangle.
Then price made upward impulse, thereby exiting from triangle and breaking $2700 level, and started to trades in pennant.
In this pattern, price broke $2700 level one more time and declined to support level, after which rose to resistance line.
In my mind, Gold can fall to support line and then bounce up to $2660, exiting from pennant.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
XAUUSD Last pull-back before a 2695 reboundGold (XAUUSD) is currently pulling back around the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), as it failed to sustain a rebound following the December 18 Low. Despite this technical weakness, this seems to be (based on the previous November 25 - December 05 accumulation) the final bearish Leg before a rebound.
We are expecting at least a 0.786 Fibonacci test at 2695.
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Gold buy zone CAPITALCOM:GOLD
Buying Zone: 2610**
- **Rationale:** The 2610 zone represents a strong **support area**, where you anticipate buyer interest will outweigh selling pressure, leading to a potential price reversal or bounce.
- **Confirmation Signals:**
- Look for bullish candlestick patterns (e.g., hammer, bullish engulfing) or significant buying volume around 2610 on the **1-hour chart**.
- Ensure that price respects this level without breaking below it significantly, confirming it as a reliable entry point. CAPITALCOM:GOLD
**Target: 2634**
- **Rationale:** The 2634 level is identified as a **resistance zone** or a high-probability take-profit area. This could be a previously tested resistance or a psychological level where selling pressure is expected.
- **Technical Indicators:**
- Monitor for potential slowing of momentum (e.g., RSI divergence or overbought conditions) as the price approaches 2634.
- Watch for a failure to break 2634 on prior attempts, as this strengthens the case for a reversal or consolidation near the target.
**Risk Management**
- **Stop Loss:** Place your stop loss slightly below the **2610 level**, around 2605 or lower, depending on your risk tolerance, to protect against invalidation of the support zone.
- **Risk-Reward Ratio:** Ensure the trade offers a favorable risk-reward ratio. For instance, if targeting a $24 move (2610 to 2634), limit your risk to around $10 (stop at 2600).
GOLD NEXT MOVE (expecting a bearish move) (30-12-2024)Go through the analysis carefully and do trade accordingly.
XAU/USD Analysis - December 30, 2024
Current Price: $2626
"If the price remains below $2642, the next targets are $2612, $2589, and there is a possibility of staying above $2550."
- POSSIBILITY 1:
Wait (as geopolitical tensions are worsening)
- POSSIBILITY 2:
Wait (as geopolitical tensions are worsening)
Best of Luck!
Always remember: Never risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade.
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