Gold Analysis: Bearish Reversal Looms After Supply Zonehello guys!
let's dive into #xauusd #gold analysis!
Supply and Demand Zone: The price recently touched the highlighted supply and demand (S&D) zone around $2,640-$2,650, showing resistance in that area.
Trend Channel: The price is moving within an ascending channel, with higher highs and higher lows. However, the current trend shows signs of potential exhaustion.
Projected Movement: After touching the S&D zone, the price began to decline. The chart suggests a potential retest of the midline of the channel before continuing downwards.
Bearish Outlook: If the price breaks below the lower channel line, a significant drop toward the $2,578 level is possible, indicating a bearish continuation.
Commodities
GOLD // short countertrendThe trend is short on every major timeframe, and the market has a nice room till the correction fibo 38.2
There are 2 clean (not yet tested) H4 breakouts that can be excellent entry zones for short trades.
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Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated.
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Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼♂️
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Gold Analysis==>>Falling Soon!!!🎄First of all, I want to wish everyone a Merry Christmas , I wish you all the best moments .
As I expected , Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) reached the upper area of the Resistance zone($2,642-$2,620) .
Gold is moving in the Resistance zone($2,642-$2,620) , near the 50_EMA(Daily) . (It has also succeeded in breaking the Uptrend line ).
According to the theory of Elliott waves , it seems that Gold has successfully completed the Double Three Correction(WXY) in the Ascending Channel .
Also, Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks .
I expect Gold to attack the lower line of the ascending channel AFTER breaking the Support line .
⚠️Note: If Gold breaks the 50_EMA(Daily) and Resistance zone($2,642-$2,620), we should expect Gold to rise further.⚠️
🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 15-minute time frame ⏰.
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XAUUSD Buy Limit OrderHi everyone.
As we had a CHoCH in lower TF, I think it's time to go up again and trigger my previous sell setup and then come back down again...
This is how I see the market in the coming days, so I'm going long when the market opens.
Let's see what happens next..
Dear traders, please support my ideas with your likes and comments to motivate me to publish more signals and analysis for you.
Best Regards
Navid Nazarian
Silver bells have a morbid tone compared to gold target to R24.1Unlike Gold which is still holding its stature in the Symmetrical Triangle.
Silver has broken below not only it's Uptrend but also below the neckline of a Head and Shoulders.
Now commodities don't stay down for too long normally, so I wouldn't be surprised if this market rockets up due to some "catalyst" in the new year.
But until then, the price and nature is bearish and will set a target of around $24.15.
The price does however need to close below the 200MA to make it a higher probability idea.
Gold Symmetrical Triangle could sky rocket the price to $2,789Gold has been forming a Symmetrical Triangle since July 2024.
The Uptrend Flag pole was established, followed by the constricted Triangle.
Now it's still early days, but the price could constrict further until it reaches 3/4s of the apex.
If theory speaks, then the price should break up and out of the Triangle which will take it to $2,789.
I want to be optimistic in 2025. And ONLY if the price breaks below the support, will it show a bearish nature.
Until then, golden balls all the way.
Silver H4 | Rising into overlap resistanceSilver (XAG/USD) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 29.78 which is an overlap resistance.
Stop loss is at 30.30 which is a level that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 28.80 which is a swing-low support.
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Hellena | Oil (4H): Short to support area at 66.867.Colleagues, oil has been in a sideways movement for the last month and is not living up to our expectations, but I still believe that the price will start a downward movement to the support area at 66.867.
Now the price is in a complicated wave movement, which I named (A, B, C). In fact, the movement is more complicated, but I will not describe the rules of the Leading diagonal now.
So I expect that the price will reach the area of 72, complete wave 2 and start a downward movement.
But there is a variant when the price will start the movement at once.
Therefore, I do not recommend long positions.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Are Global Coffee Markets Brewing a Crisis Beyond Price?In an unprecedented turn of events, the coffee industry faces its fifth consecutive season of demand surpassing production, driving prices to their highest levels in nearly half a century. This isn't merely a story of market dynamics – it's a complex narrative where climate change, shifting consumption patterns, and agricultural sustainability converge to reshape the future of the world's favorite beverage.
The situation has reached a critical juncture as major producing regions struggle with severe weather disruptions. Brazil's drought-stricken Arabica crops and Vietnam's weather-battered Robusta production have created a perfect storm in the market. Volcafe's dramatic reduction of its 2025/26 Brazilian production forecast by 11 million bags underscores the severity of these challenges. China's 60% surge in coffee consumption over five years adds pressure to an already strained supply chain.
Perhaps most concerning is the structural nature of these challenges. Traditional growing regions, from Kenya's prestigious AA bean farms to Brazil's vast coffee plantations, face existential threats from climate change. The delicate balance required for premium coffee production – specific humidity levels, temperature ranges, and rainfall patterns – is increasingly difficult to maintain. One industry expert notes that suitable growing areas continue to shrink, suggesting current market pressures may become the new normal rather than a temporary disruption.
This convergence of factors presents both challenges and opportunities for investors, industry stakeholders, and consumers alike. As major producers like Nestlé and J.M. Smucker announce price increases for 2025, the industry stands at a crossroads. The future of coffee will likely be defined not just by how we manage immediate supply challenges, but by how we adapt to an*56C3VFGBHd innovate within these new environmental and market realities.
Bullish on Natural Gas - January 280 Call OptionSummary: I'm bullish on the Natural Gas January 280 call option. Here's my trade idea:
Current Price: Closed at ₹24.76 on December 27, 2024.
Entry:
Best Buying Price: Aim to enter below ₹18.80 for optimal risk-reward.
Target:
Price Target: Looking towards ₹37-₹40.
Rationale:
The current market conditions suggest potential for an upward movement in natural gas prices, supported by seasonal demand increases and possible geopolitical tensions affecting supply.
Technical analysis indicates a potential breakout if the price sustains above key support levels.
Risk Management:
Set a stop-loss just below ₹16 to minimize potential losses if the market moves against the position.
Position size should be managed to ensure the trade aligns with your risk tolerance.
Time Frame:
This trade is for the January expiry, giving us a tight window to capitalize on the expected price increase.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice but a personal trading idea. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before trading.
Let's see if we can catch that wave up to ₹37-₹40!
Weekly View On Gold XAUUSD (Week 01/2025)Weekly View On Gold XAUUSD (Week 01/2025)
GOLD is in
1. In the tight range since Nov 2024 and it is due for the break out soon.
2. For the positioning, we still have minor bullishness in tact.
Summary
Slightly Bullish but it is gonna be wild swing as the buyers and sellers fighting it hard to win over each other.
So, make your plans accordingly. (See the black dash line for possible future projection of the gold price)
DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too.
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Gold → A Buying Opportunity or a Market Trap?OANDA:XAUUSD continuing to bring hope for buyers, trading inside the local upward channel resembles a flag on the backdrop of a local downtrend.
In the medium term, the dollar needs to be reassessed in the context of the Fed remaining supportive. This raises the question: What will happen to interest rates? Hold steady or increase? It must be understood that as Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House in January, the market will closely monitor U.S. economic data to forecast how the Federal Reserve will respond to anticipated inflationary pressures from administration policies, including tariffs, deregulation, and tax reform.
The focus remains on U.S. jobless claims data. Economists polled by Reuters forecast around 224,000 claims for the week ending December 21, up from 220,000 claims in the week ending December 14. If jobless claims figures rise significantly, this will put pressure on the USD, and the gold market may start trading with a slightly positive trend. And vice versa. However, Ben does not talk about growth based on these numbers. Theoretically, as prices approach strong resistance levels, selling pressure seems stronger. Be careful!
From a technical perspective, the price has the potential to rebound from any nearby strong level, which could lead to a subsequent decline. A key level to watch is 2620. If the bears manage to break this level and maintain their position below it, the overall selling pressure may intensify, likely resulting in a further price drop. The anticipated decline is expected to reach the range of 2,605–2,600 before setting up for any additional downward moves.
Best regards,Bentradegold!
Wishing everyone a joyful holiday season and a productive New Year 2025!
Silver - Bulls have a setup for another final push higher We can count silver as completing the second leg up in a large A up, B down, C up structure off the major pandemic low. The second leg up in a wave C normally stretches to at least 100% ext of the wave A up and is normally subdivided into five micro waves.
I think bulls should produce the final wave (v) up targeting the Red Box
XAUUSD 30/12/24Our final gold markup before 2025 arrives and we transition into a new trading year! As expected, the Christmas period brought low trading volume, which leads us to review the setups from last week. With the New Year approaching quickly, we anticipate volume will remain low until 2025. Here’s last week’s text for additional context.
XAUUSD Analysis
Last week, we began with a bullish bias, but our outlook quickly shifted to bearish by Monday's close. This shift led to the significant downside movement observed during the latter half of the week, driven by fundamentals. We saw a substantial run targeting the lower levels, which brings us to today’s bias, which remains bearish.
Currently, we are focused on the three liquidity lows as our primary targets. As always, we look to the highs within the range to provide optimal entries for these targets. At the moment, there is a high in the middle of the range, but we are prioritizing the higher, more favorable highs for potential short positions. If an entry aligns with our plan, this could lead to the final sell-off of the week before the New Year approaches.
Trade safe and stick to your plan.
Gold conquering the $3,000/ounce mark is possible.China and India, the world’s two largest gold consumers, are also facing domestic challenges that could dampen demand for the precious metal. In China, a weaker yuan and a sluggish recovery from the pandemic have made gold less attractive. India, the number two gold market, is also facing similar challenges, with a recent currency devaluation eroding its purchasing power, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive domestically. That’s particularly worrying because India accounts for more than 25% of global jewelry demand.
Recently, the news that US President Joe Biden proposed to increase arms aid to Ukraine caused gold prices to surge due to safe-haven demand. However, immediately after that, gold prices were under pressure to decrease as the market waited for signals from the new economic policies of the administration of President-elect Donald Trump and the interest rate decision from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
The world gold price has increased by about 28% since the beginning of the year, reaching a peak of 2,790 USD/ounce at the end of October. This precious metal is still considered an effective risk hedging tool, especially in the context of escalating geopolitical tensions. However, gold becomes less attractive in a high interest rate environment.
USD is recovering because of hawkish policiesLast week, the global gold market had a quiet trading week, with prices capped at $2,650/ounce. This week, gold prices are also expected to remain flat due to the tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and pressure from the recovery of bond yields and the greenback.
Speaking about gold's movements in 2025, City Index market analyst Fawad Razaqzada said that although the US dollar and higher bond yields could negatively impact gold, there are still some supporting factors that could help the precious metal reach $3,000/ounce.
The expert explained that amid persistent inflation concerns, the US Central Bank is expected to be more cautious in its interest rate decisions next year. This is likely to support bond yields and the US dollar, two factors that often reduce the appeal of gold.
Higher bond yields have a significant impact on investment demand for the yellow metal, as they increase the opportunity cost of holding these non-yielding assets. “At the same time, the greenback’s resilience, supported by hawkish central bank policies and strong economic data, makes gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. These dynamics could limit gold’s upside potential in the first half of next year.”
🔥 XAUUSD SELL 2625 - 2628🔥
💵 TP1: 2620
💵 TP2: 2610
💵 TP3: OPEN
🚫 SL: 2637
Weekly Forex Forecast: Last Show For 2024Dec 30th to Jan 3rd.
USD is still strong, and so are the indices. I will be looking for buys until there is a significant bearish Break of Structure.
A strong USD is a headwind for Gold, Silver and the other metals. It is also a headwind for GBP, EUR and the other majors. USDCHF, USDCAD and USDJPY should see some upside.
Thank you for hangin' with me for 2024! I hope you found a benefit in my weekly forecasts this year. 2025 will be even better!
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Silver Is Approaching The Daily TrendHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring XAGUSD for a buying opportunity around 28.700 zone, Silver is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 28.700 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Gold Price Action Final Analysis of the Year:
As I wrap up my analysis for the year, here’s my take on the gold market. Gold initially made a Rally-Base-Rally (RBR) move 📈 but failed to create a new rally, shifting into a Rally-Base-Drop (RBD) pattern. This has transitioned into a Drop-Base-Drop (DBD) phase 📉, indicating a high probability that gold will drop further from the current base zone (entry point).
Always remember to manage your risk ⚖️ carefully.
Wishing you all the best in your trading and a Happy New Year! 🎉
Bearish drop off overlap resistance?XAU/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 2,632.65
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Stop loss: 2,655.19
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 2,593.01
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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