Commodities
GOLD - Bearish Trend with Key Resistance at 2661Gold Technical Analysis
The price declined yesterday, as anticipated, and then reversed, currently attempting to reach the resistance level at 2661 before potentially turning bearish again if it stabilizes below this level.
The price continues to show bearish volume, with targets at 2625 and 2612, as long as it trades below 2661. However, it may first test 2661 if it stabilizes above 2644.
The general trend remains downward. For a bullish trend to emerge, the price must stabilize above 2661, confirmed by a 4-hour candle close, to target 2678.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 2644
Support Levels: 2625, 2612, 2585
Resistance Levels: 2661, 2678, 2693
XAUUSD Potential price correction from crossing of Resistance leGold (XAUUSD) has recently broken and closed above the $2,650 resistance zone, indicating strong bullish momentum. The market is now approaching the previous week's high at $2,686 and the psychological level at $2,700. Additionally, a global upward trendline, which has supported the price since the summer, lies above these levels.
At these resistance points, there may be selling pressure, potentially causing the price to consolidate or move sideways. The market might also seek liquidity above the previous week's high before retracing. A break and retest scenario is possible, where the price tests these resistance levels and then pulls back. The target for this pullback is the support zone around $2,635.
It's important to monitor price action near these key levels to confirm potential reversals or continuations. Traders should also consider external factors, such as economic data releases and geopolitical events, which can influence gold prices
XAUUSD Potential Up movement in the short-termThe XAU/USD market has demonstrated resilience at the 2,620 support level, with multiple tests resulting in rejections and the formation of long-tailed bars, indicating buyer intervention. This area functions as a swap zone where buying momentum has reasserted itself. On the daily chart, the price briefly dipped below the prior daily low, capturing liquidity before rebounding. Notably, the price remains within the previous week's range, oscillating between its upper and lower boundaries. The inability to breach the 2,620 support level suggests that buyers may aim to challenge the resistance zone near 2,679
GOLD | We're in a Bearish Triangle, Will We Break Through?Gold likes to move in patterns sometimes, and it's also worth considering that the orange rock is quite overbought right now. There's a chance that the triangle will be respected, and also there's a chance that we'll fly up. Both have their arguments, but the downward direction option is more likely to happen. Don't open any positions, because we can understand what's going to happen only after next movements. Now let's watch and see!
XAU/USD : Bull or Bear? (READ THE CAPTION)Analyzing the #Gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can observe that yesterday, following the announcement of a potential ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, gold experienced a significant drop, correcting by over 800 pips down to $2,605. This sharp decline created a major liquidity gap, which I anticipate will likely be filled as prices recover soon.
Additionally, today we have the critical CB Consumer Confidence data release, which could significantly impact the market and trigger high volatility. Be cautious with your trades and manage your risk effectively!
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Best Regards , Arman Shaban
G&S ratio rising could be bearish on metals medium termThe G&S ratio is back above resistance (now support) and wants to break out of the bullish wedge in dark rose color.
If that happens, an inverse H&S formation could play out and shoot us up (blue line) to the extension of the rising resistance of the (yellow) bearish rising wedge. This would mean a last hurray spike of the ratio, to touch the apex a last time before falling again.
The final fall of the G&S ratio would then signal the risumption of the bull market and the further collapse in the G&S ratio would signifie a raging bull market for precious metale (both silver and gold - but especially silver).
The bull market in metals is unavoidable with the current macro sitauation. However its resumption could be delaid if this set up plays out.
GOLD Is Very Bearish! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for GOLD.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 2,647.747.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 2,604.970 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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Oil Upatedoil has formed a valid descending tredline on a support and broke it with a candle that closed above the last touch of the trendline
so we're waiting for a retest and rejection of the trendline and prefer on the support also to enter a buy (long) position
happy tradin guys
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The US has begun to enter a cycle of lowering interest rates.Currently, the world is witnessing the monetary tightening cycle coming to an end. Many countries, including the US, have begun to enter a cycle of lowering interest rates.
Minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) published on the night of November 26 (Vietnam time) mentioned that the US needs to gradually lower interest rates. However, it also recorded signs of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell losing control, with board members uncertain about what the long-term interest rate target will be.
Market signals show that there is a nearly 60% chance that the Fed will reduce interest rates for the third consecutive time at its meeting in December. In 2025, the Fed will also likely reduce a few more times.
The USD will be under downward pressure even though the US economy is expected to improve after Mr. Trump takes office. Gold prices will likely continue to be supported and maintain an uptrend lasting from the end of 2023 until now.
Most experts forecast that gold is still in an uptrend. However, this commodity is likely to continue to fluctuate strongly as the world becomes increasingly complex. Mr. Trump's policies and policy statements may continue to impact markets, causing commodity prices to fluctuate sharply.
GOLD BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
It makes sense for us to go short on GOLD right now from the resistance line above with the target of 2,616.113 because of the confluence of the two strong factors which are the general downtrend on the previous 1W candle and the overbought situation on the lower TF determined by it’s proximity to the upper BB band.
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GOLD → Trading inside the channel from the range boundariesFX:XAUUSD declines to 2620 amid positive news from the Middle East, but the overall fundamental background is still difficult. Today is low liquidity due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the US.
The gold price is down amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah on Wednesday. But on Wednesday night there were reports of an escalation of conflict in Aleppo, Syria .... Also not to forget the escalated conflict in Eastern Europe.
The dollar is still in consolidation, given that today is a holiday in the U.S., there may be low liquidity and high volatility in the market. Accordingly, an exaggerated price movement in gold cannot be ruled out.
Technically, gold is flat, so we consider trading from the range boundaries. We focus on the local channel from H1 2660 - 2618 and the global channel from D1 - 2689 (2710) - 2605.
Resistance levels: 2660, 2604, 2678, 2689
Support levels: 2618, 2605
Accordingly, in the momen, gold is heading towards the liquidity above. False breakdown of the key resistance zone and price consolidation in the selling zone may form a price decline to the lower boundary of the flat.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
COPPER bottomed and a huge rally is expected to start.Copper (HG1!) has been trading within a Channel Up for 1.5 year (since May 2022) and is consolidating at the moment on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) very close to the pattern's bottom. This is in fact a Double Bottom formation that is similar to the September 28 2022 Low.
As you can see both fractals had a 1W MA50 Double Bottom with their 1D RSI sequences also following an identical trend. The 2022 bottom initiated a rebound that hit the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, our Target as of now for Copper is 4.900.
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5 MINUTE GOLD SETUP.We have a break of structure (BOS). Now, I need to wait for a retracement to the breaker block or fair value gap (FVG), among other areas of interest. Then, I will switch to the 1-minute time frame to look for a bullish momentum candle. It is important that we see a clear rejection from these key areas before making an entry.
GOLD | Stop Loss Hunting Will Push Gold HigherI'm opening my 13th position: The bull flag was broken, but it was not broken obviously and strongly, the passage was too slow to suggest that the current forming trend is now fully bearish. I assume we're going to fly higher from current correction.
Here is my very cautious position:
Opening: 2625
TP: 2635
SL: 2575
Let's see what happens next!
BRENT - UniverseMetta - Signal#BRENT - UniverseMetta - Signal
H4 - A triangle may form in continuation of the downward movement within the channel. It is better not to increase the risks. Stop behind the maximum.
Entry: 72.215
TP: 71.781- 71.209 - 70.726 - 69.917
Stop: 73.062
WTI - Stability in the Middle East!WTI oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. If the downward correction continues towards the demand zone, the next opportunity to buy oil with a suitable risk reward will be provided for us.
Following the ceasefire in Lebanon, U.S. President Joe Biden announced that in the coming days, the United States will work with regional countries, including Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, and Israel, to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza that guarantees the release of hostages and the end of the war.However, he emphasized that such a ceasefire should not allow Hamas to remain in power.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico on his first day in office. This tariff will also include crude oil, with no exceptions considered. Additionally, Trump is preparing another executive order to lift the suspension on liquefied natural gas (LNG) export permits that was implemented under Joe Biden’s presidency. This executive order might require the Department of Energy to approve pending permits or resume reviewing new applications. This move is seen as part of Trump’s early energy policy agenda.
Wall Street has expressed concerns about the potential impact of Trump’s second term on oil prices. Analysts suggest that oil producers may try to boost production before stricter regulations from the Biden era return. However, some experts believe that the nature of shale oil production in the U.S. makes long-term supply increases challenging. Unlike OPEC nations, where oil production is often controlled by national oil companies, oil production in the U.S. is divided among major corporations, independent producers, and private companies.
This analysis aligns with Goldman Sachs’ outlook. Goldman Sachs has forecasted that U.S. crude oil production will increase by just 500,000 barrels per day this year, down from the 1 million barrels per day increase seen last year. Nevertheless, the U.S. will still account for 60% of non-OPEC oil production growth, with the Permian Basin in North America expected to grow by 340,000 barrels per day—lower than Wall Street’s initial projection of 520,000 barrels.
According to Bloomberg, Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports have reached their lowest level in two months. The four-week average of these exports up to November 24 dropped to around 150,000 barrels per day, marking the fourth decrease in five weeks. This decline is largely attributed to a significant reduction in oil flows to India, Russia’s primary buyer, although weekly exports have seen a slight uptick.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Kazakhstan have issued a joint statement emphasizing the importance of market stability and their commitment to voluntary production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement. In this context, Reuters analysts predict that OPEC+ will likely maintain its oil production cut policy for an extended period due to weak global demand. This group, which accounts for nearly half of the world’s oil production, faces challenges in deciding whether to increase or further reduce production. Increasing production is risky under current conditions, while further cuts may be difficult due to some members’ desire to boost output.
Meanwhile, rising gas prices have posed significant challenges for European policymakers this winter. Javier Blas, a Bloomberg analyst, believes that Europe has not yet fully faced the realities of the energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He warns that Europe has overly attributed last year’s successes to favorable weather conditions. However, these conditions have changed, and this winter is expected to bring higher gas and electricity prices. This situation places significant pressure on energy-intensive industries, with many large factories either reducing activity or shutting down. Households, too, will face greater inflation due to higher energy costs.
These challenges have also put central banks like the European Central Bank and the Bank of England under pressure. Wholesale gas prices in Europe have risen to €47 per megawatt-hour, which is double the February price and 130% higher than the 2010–2020 average.
1 minute scalping trade idea.Price action on the 5-minute chart is trending nicely, so I'm looking for some liquidity to be taken from the higher lows before continuing upward.
GOLD → Controversial fundamental background. What's next?FX:XAUUSD is taking advantage of the dollar weakness and heading towards the zones of interest and liquidity 2665 - 2688. Overall, the fundamental backdrop is not stable, but at the same time weak for gold. PCE, GDP and resistance ahead....
The ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel has entered into force. This has helped to reduce demand for the US dollar, which is generally reflected in the forex market. Gold is feeling support from sustained expectations for the Fed and uncertainty over the outlook for global trade during the Trump presidency, which intends to impose new tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico. Ahead of the upcoming macroeconomic news from the US are PCE and GDP.
Technically, gold is in a sideways range and is looking up towards zones of interest from which a correction could form. But this reaction is partly dependent on the news as well....
Resistance levels: 2660, 2664, 2680
Support levels: 2620, 2605
The focus is on the imbalance zone, 0.7 fibo and 2680 area. Due to the controversial technical and fundamental background, the gold price may close inside a wide channel, which allows us to use its boundaries for trading. We are watching the resistance with a sell target for further downside
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD fell rapidly in the short term, pressured by US dataIn the early trading session in Asian markets on Thursday (November 28), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery suddenly dropped sharply in the short term, currently trading around 2,629 USD/ounce. Gold prices gave up much of their earlier recovery gains after data showed inflation progress was stalling, as the data could make the Federal Reserve cautious about cutting interest rates further.
According to Wednesday's economic data, US durable goods orders rose 0.2% month-on-month in October. While it did not meet expectations of 0.5%, it was an improvement. improved compared to a decrease of 0.4% in September.
The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the US in the week of November 23 remained stable at 213,000, lower than the expected level of 217,000.
The real (quarterly annually adjusted) rate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States in the third quarter was unchanged from its baseline value, at 2.8%, and growth slowed from 3% in the second quarter.
But the GDP report still shows that the US economy still has good resilience. GDP growth has exceeded 2% in eight of the past nine quarters.
A report released by the US Department of Commerce showed that the Fed's favorite inflation index rebounded in October compared to September. The data supports Fed officials taking a more cautious stance in recent times. next interest rate cut.
The Fed's favorite measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index that excludes volatile food and energy, rose 2.8% year-on-year in October, a highest since April this year compared to September, up 2.7%.
Additionally, the core PCE price index increased 0.3% month-over-month in October, in line with expectations.
The PCE price index increased 0.2% month-over-month and 2.3% year-on-year in October, both in line with the forecasts of analysts surveyed by Dow Jones. The PCE index's annual increase in October was higher than September's 2.1% gain.
Wednesday's data showed that U.S. personal income rose 0.6% month-on-month in October, significantly better than the expected increase of 0.3%.
Minutes of the Federal Reserve's November monetary policy meeting released Tuesday showed that although Fed officials said they expected to continue cutting interest rates in the future, they said the pace Interest rate cuts will take place “gradually”.
The gold market fluctuated strongly this week. As Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon declared a ceasefire, reducing demand for safe havens, gold suffered its biggest one-day drop in more than five months on Monday and prices fell to a low. most since November 18 on Tuesday.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold continues to maintain its main bearish trend after approaching and coming under pressure from the 21-day moving average (EMA21).
The drop below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement is a good signal for bearish expectations as the target behind that is at the levels of 2,606 – 2,600USD. Note to readers in the previous issue.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is flat below 50, if it is pointing down this can be considered a good signal for a downtrend.
As long as gold remains below the EMA21 and within the price channel, it will remain bearish in the near term and price rallies should only be considered short-term recoveries without changing the current primary trend.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold is bearish with notable points listed as follows.
Support: 2,606 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,634 – 2,644USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2690
→Take Profit 1 2679
↨
→Take Profit 2 2674
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2579 - 2581⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2575
→Take Profit 1 2586
↨
→Take Profit 2 2591
World gold price todayWorld gold prices continued to increase slightly, with spot gold increasing by 3.2 USD to 2,632.8 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at $2,660.40 an ounce, up $4.80 from the bright spot.
USD weakness added momentum to gold on Wednesday. Accordingly, the US Dollar Index fell 0.8%, hitting a two-week low, increasing the appeal of gold to holders of other currencies.
However, the growth rate of this precious metal has been limited by the release of new data showing the potential distribution of chlorophyll. This indicates that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could be very important in cutting interest rates. According to the report, US consumer spending increased sharply in October, but the slowdown appears to have been patchy in recent months.
According to the minutes of the recent policy meeting released on Tuesday, there is currently uncertainty about the direction of the economy. That increased market expectations for an interest rate cut in December after the minutes were released. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the market currently forecasts a 70% chance of a 0.25 percentage point rate cut.
GOLD → Controversial fundamental background. What's next?OANDA:XAUUSD capitalizing on the weakening of the US dollar and heading towards the areas of interest and liquidity at 2635 - 2639. But! There are signs that a flag pattern is forming. Theoretically, any attempt for gold prices to rise could be limited. PCE, GDP, and the resistance ahead...
Meanwhile, sellers pause slightly amid concerns about trade wars, geopolitical risks, expectations that the Fed will cut rates by another 25 basis points in December, recently declining US bond yields, and the USD falling overnight to a two-week low. However, ahead of the upcoming macroeconomic news from the US, namely PCE and GDP, after a relatively quiet news week, volatility is likely to be unpredictable. The question now is whether the downward momentum will continue as the price reacts to a critical support zone.
Technically, gold remains range-bound and is heading towards areas of interest from which a retracement could form. But this reaction also partly depends on the news....
The focus is on the imbalance zone, fibo 0.618 and fibo 0.5. Due to the controversial technical and fundamental background, the gold price may close inside a wide channel, which allows us to use its boundaries for trading. We are watching the resistance with a sell target for further downside
