Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed lower after forming an upper wick at the 5-day moving average on the daily chart. If it had closed with a bullish candle, a technical rebound from the oversold condition could have opened the way to the 10-day moving average, but instead, it ended with a bearish candle.
The daily chart still shows a sell signal, but the best-case scenario would be for the market to form a double bottom pattern after confirming a short-term low and attempt another rise toward the 10-day moving average.
On the intraday charts, there's a high probability that the market will show a double bottom during the pre-market session, especially since there's no clear sell reversal on lower timeframes yet. The 240-minute chart shows a golden cross on the MACD, and although a death cross hasn't yet occurred, the large gap between the MACD and the zero line suggests a continued corrective trend.
As long as the death cross doesn't materialize, buying on dips near the bottom remains favorable. The 16,500 level is a strong support zone on the monthly, weekly, and daily charts, so shorting is not recommended — better to lean toward long setups. With the FOMC minutes due out early tomorrow and the CPI report on the horizon, volatility is expected to rise as the market attempts to form a bottom. Stick to buying on dips, manage risk carefully, and reduce leverage in this volatile environment.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed lower, continuing its recent downtrend on the daily chart. Concerns over a global economic slowdown and increased production from OPEC nations are dampening the upside. Although the sell signal on the daily MACD remains, there's still potential for a short-term rebound toward the 5-day moving average. If trading short, make sure to set a stop-loss, especially near the strong $57 support zone, where shorting is riskier.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has re-crossed into a death cross, showing signs of a third wave of selling pressure. However, there's still a chance of bullish divergence, so avoid chasing short positions. The $57–$59 support range remains strong, and unless this level breaks, buying on dips offers a more favorable risk-reward ratio. Note that today's U.S. crude inventory report could introduce more volatility, so trade carefully.
Gold
Gold closed lower with an upper wick on the daily chart. While the price is still above the 0 line on the MACD, if it pulls back to the previous high resistance area, which coincides with the lower Bollinger Band and the 60-day moving average, it may present a good buying opportunity for swing trades. On the weekly chart, gold is still moving within a sideways range, trapped between key moving averages. With the FOMC minutes today and the CPI tomorrow, it's important to monitor whether the price breaks out of this range.
The 240-minute chart shows that the MACD has not yet formed a golden cross, and there's still a large gap from the 0 line. If MACD rebounds and then corrects again, it's crucial to check whether a double bottom around the 2,980 area is forming. Overall, gold remains a buy-the-dip candidate, and if the price falls to around the 60-day moving average, it could present a great swing entry.
Investor sentiment is reaching extreme levels, and we're witnessing unusually fast and wide price swings. It's hard to rely on daily or weekly charts alone, so it's important to focus on short-term price action and use appropriate leverage for your strategy.
The market will always be open. Survival and consistent profitability are what matter most in the long run. Stay disciplined, manage risk carefully, and take a long-term view as a trader.
Wishing you another day of successful trading!
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Commodities
GOLD My Opinion! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for GOLD below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 3007.7
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 2993.1
Recommended Stop Loss - 3015.5
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Gold Experiences Surge with Economic FearsGold soared to around $3,000 per ounce as investors sought refuge from intensifying trade war concerns and recession risks. The U.S. confirmed a new round of tariffs with no exemptions, China faces a record 104% hike. Trump also warned of a forthcoming pharmaceutical import tariff. The market is now focused on the Fed's March meeting minutes, set for release later today, for potential rate cut clues. Ongoing central bank purchases and strong ETF demand, China’s ETF added 233,000 ounces, also supported the rally.
Key resistance is at $3,035, followed by $3,085 and $3,105. Support stands at $2,956, then $2,930 and $2830.
XAGUSD Trade Plan: 1D Support, Liquidity Grab, & Bullish Setup!Silver (XAGUSD) is currently exhibiting signs of being overextended, as evidenced by its recent price action on the daily and 4-hour timeframes. The metal has traded into a critical support zone, marked by previous lows on the daily chart. This zone represents a significant area of interest, as it has historically acted as a key level for buyers to step in. However, the current price action has dipped below these lows, eating into sell-side liquidity in the form of stop-loss orders placed beneath this level. This liquidity grab is a classic move often seen in markets before a potential reversal.
On the 15-minute timeframe, the price is consolidating within a range, suggesting a possible accumulation. A break above this range, accompanied by a bullish market structure shift, could signal the beginning of a reversal and provide a compelling buy opportunity. This aligns with the idea of a "spring" in Wyckoff theory, where price manipulates liquidity before reversing direction.
Traders should remain patient and wait for confirmation of a bullish breakout on the lower timeframe before entering long positions. Key factors to monitor include strong bullish momentum, a clear break of the range, and the formation of higher highs and higher lows. Until these conditions are met, caution is advised, as the current downtrend could persist. 📉➡️📈
Key Levels to Watch:
Support Zone: Previous daily lows (now acting as a liquidity zone).
Resistance Zone: The upper boundary of the current 15-minute range.
Trading Plan:
Wait for a break of the 15-minute range to the upside. 🚀
Look for a bullish market structure shift (higher highs and higher lows). 📊
Enter long positions with a tight stop-loss below the range low. 🛡️
Target key resistance levels on the 4-hour and daily timeframes for potential take-profit zones. 🎯
This analysis highlights the importance of patience and discipline in trading. While the current setup is promising, confirmation is key to avoid premature entries. As always, this is not financial advice, and traders should conduct their own due diligence before making any decisions. ⚠️
Gold/Silver Ratio Nears 100: What Does It Mean Historically?The Gold/Silver ratio is on the verge of reaching 100, an extremely rare level seen only at key historical turning points. The chart includes a 2,500-week linear regression channel, which shows that over the very long term, the ratio has been steadily rising, though at a slow pace. Occasionally, the ratio touches the 1.5 standard deviation line, and in rare, game-changing events, and sometimes it even breaks beyond that level.
Here are some of the key historical turning points marked by major spikes in the Gold/Silver ratio:
1- Early 1990s: The collapse of the Soviet Union, the Gulf War, and a U.S. recession pushed the ratio to 106. It remained above 1.5 standard deviations for more than two years.
2- 2002: Following the dot-com bubble burst, the 9/11 attacks, and the Iraq War, the ratio climbed to 82.6, nearing the 1.5 deviation line.
3- 2008 Recession: The global financial crisis triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers sent the ratio to 88.50. This spike sparked a major rally in both gold and silver, lasting until 2011 when the ratio reached one of its deepest bottoms.
4- 2019: The U.S.–China trade war under Trump’s first term pushed the ratio to 93, again nearing the 1.5 deviation threshold.
5- 2020 (COVID-19 Shock): The pandemic caused one of the biggest disruptions in modern economic history. Although relatively short-lived, its impacts were severe. The Gold/Silver ratio surged to 126 , marking the highest level in modern records, possibly the highest in all of history.
6- 2024–2025 (Global Trade War?): With the U.S. imposing major tariffs on key global trading partners, this could be another historic inflection point. The full impact is still unfolding, but risks of a serious global slowdown, or even a deep recession are rising. A full-scale trade war remains a real possibility.
Now, the Gold/Silver ratio is approaching 100 and nearing the 1.5 standard deviation line. It remains unclear whether this represents a powerful pair trade opportunity—"sell gold, buy silver"—or a structural breakout where the ratio stays elevated for an extended period. In either case market is showing that this is one of the rare turning point of global economy.
WHY XAUUSD IS BULLISH ?? DETAILED TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTALSXAUUSD is currently showing strong signs of bullish continuation after completing a successful retest of the previous breakout zone near the $2,920–$2,950 region. Price action has respected this support beautifully and is now pushing back above $3,040, confirming the bullish structure. This retest and bounce pattern suggests that the market is preparing for a fresh leg higher, with my immediate target set at $3,100. The current structure is aligned with higher highs and higher lows, and momentum is shifting back in favor of buyers.
Technically, the move is clean. The bullish impulse from February to late March created a strong upside leg, followed by a healthy correction into a well-defined demand zone. This demand zone held firm, and the current reaction is supported by increasing volume and bullish candlestick formation on the 12H chart. The inverse head-and-shoulders structure around $2,930 gives this setup even more weight, with a clear breakout above the neckline indicating potential continuation toward higher time frame targets.
From a fundamental perspective, gold remains supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions, increased demand from central banks, and continued inflationary pressure globally. As the market anticipates this week's U.S. CPI data, investors are hedging against uncertainty, which is driving flows into safe-haven assets like gold. The recent pullback in the US dollar index and bond yields is also contributing to upside pressure on XAUUSD, further confirming the bullish outlook.
With both the technical setup and macro drivers favoring upside, I'm looking for continuation toward $3,100 and potentially beyond in the short to mid-term. This area also aligns with the next psychological resistance and projected extension level. As long as price holds above $3,000, any dips should be viewed as fresh buying opportunities. This setup offers an excellent risk-reward ratio for traders looking to capitalize on gold’s ongoing bullish momentum.
WTI Oil H4 | Heading into a pullback resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 59.51 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 61.95 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 53.41 which is a support level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
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Gold H1 | Potential bullish bounceGold (XAU/USD) could fall towards an overlap support and potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 3,018.83 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 2,995.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 3,076.22 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
XAUUSD/GOLD Possible Move 09.04.2025📊 Market Context
After a sharp selloff from the $3,160 region to sub-$2,980 levels, the market is now in recovery/consolidation mode.
Market currently hovers around $3,010 after bouncing from below $2,980, indicating buyer interest.
📏 Fibonacci + Support Confluence Zones
Price may pull back and give a buy-the-dip opportunity.
✅ Buy Zone 1 – $2,993–2,997
Reason: Retest of strong horizontal support, Fibonacci .5% area.
Signal to Enter Long: Bullish engulfing / hammer on M5/M15 + RSI divergence.
Target: $3,010 (first), $3,020+ (extended).
🔁 Retest Logic
Wait for price to retest any of these zones on low volume → watch for bullish candle close.
⚠️ Important Notes
Avoid entering mid-range trades at $3,010–$3,015 without pullback confirmation.
Aggressive buys can be scalped on momentum breakouts of $3,020 only if volume supports.
Always monitor for news or sudden volume spikes which can invalidate pullback zones.
Follow, comment, like and join for more like analysis.
GOLD short-term analysis todayTechnically, the daily chart, four-hour chart, and hourly chart of gold maintain a volatile downward bearish structure. At present, the daily MA10/7-day moving average opens downward at the high level of 3060, and the MA5-day moving average opens downward and moves down to 3017. The RSI indicator runs below the 50 value of the middle axis.
The price of the short-term four-hour chart is below the MA10-day moving average, and the price keeps running in the middle and lower track of the Bollinger Band channel. Gold keeps volatile downward, and the trading idea remains unchanged, mainly selling at high rebounds. Resistance 3020/3036, support 2968/2956.
The recent market fluctuations are very large, which is also in line with the characteristics of gold. When all assets are sold, the safe-haven property of the currency is highlighted. The sharp drop is accompanied by a fierce rebound, and the amplitude is not small. This is the case on Thursday, Friday and today. The current market fluctuates by tens of dollars every day. It is an opportunity but also a big risk. If the panic sentiment does not subside, this will be the norm. What retail investors can do is to believe in the power of the trend and do a good job of risk control. The current market situation is defined as a volatile market, so you need to find the right entry point. Today, the resistance of gold is to sell in the pressure area of 3020-30.
Key points:
First support: 2968, second support: 2956, third support: 2942
First resistance: 3005, second resistance: 3020, third resistance: 3030
Operation ideas:
Buy: 2953-2956, SL: 2945, TP: 2970-2980;
Sell: 3014-3016, SL: 3024, TP: 2990-2980;
Will Gold Shine Again Once The Tariff Storm Is Settled?Macro:
- Gold prices have fallen since Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement, as global stock market pressure and hedge fund margin calls forced asset liquidations, including gold.
- Despite the short-term drop, gold remains a key medium-term hedge against recession risks and ongoing uncertainty once markets stabilize.
- High volatility may persist until tariff disputes are resolved and central banks clarify potential support measures.
Technical:
- XAUUSD fluctuates within the range of 2957-3055. The price is between both EMAs, indicating an intact sideways structure.
- If XAUUSD breaks below the support at 2957, the price may retest the following support at 2880.
- On the contrary, breaking above 3055 may lead to a record-high retest at around 3135.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
GOLDKey Elements & Interpretation
1. Entry Zone
Entry Price: 3,027.00 USD
The trade seems to expect a reversal from this price level.
Price has recently tapped into this zone after a bullish move, showing potential for a sell-off from premium to discount levels.
2. Stop-Loss (S/L)
Level: 3,040.00 USD
Positioned above the recent highs and liquidity zones (denoted by "$$$"), protecting against false breakouts.
3. Take-Profit Targets
TP1: 3,000.00 USD – first major support / psychological level
TP2: 2,972.00 USD – near previous day low (PDL), a common target for liquidity
TP3: 2,957.00 USD – deeper retracement into FVG / imbalance
TP4: 2,936.00 USD – near the "Discount" zone, likely final target near weak low/liquidity pocket
SMC/Order Flow Insights
Fair Value Gap (FVG): Highlighted zones where imbalance was created — price may revisit for mitigation.
Volume Profile: Shows heavy volume around the 3,020–3,030 level, indicating institutional activity and resistance.
Trendlines: The orange descending trendline is broken, signaling potential shift or trap before reversal.
Liquidity Zone ($$$): Indicates an area where stop hunts or liquidity grabs might happen. Price action touched and respected this zone.
Trade Bias: Bearish
This is a sell setup based on:
Rejection at premium pricing
Liquidity grab above PDH
Confirmation via FVG and trendline break-retest
Volume profile showing resistance
Risk/Reward
Risk is tightly managed with SL just above liquidity
Multiple reward levels offer flexibility to scale out profits
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however I advise to Place sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most nearest or swing, low or high level for Pullback Entries.
Stop Loss 🛑:
📌Thief SL placed at the nearest/swing High or Low level Using the 8H timeframe (8600) Day/Swing trade basis.
📌SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 7000 (or) Escape Before the Target
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As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
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Weekly Market Analysis - 9th April 2025Here we are with another market analysis. This time, a bit late in the week on a Wednesday, but it is what it is! We have CPI today and PPI tomorrow, so this should be an interesting week. Overall, gut instinct tells me we would be pushing lower for the DXY, but again, i'm not betting anything on it. I trade the candles, I trade the structure, I don't trade guesses.
I hope you find the video analysis useful. Take care this week!
- R2F Trading
This EURUSD Range Won’t Hold Much Longer – Expect Fireworks🧠 Current Market Context:
EURUSD is trading in a tight compression zone between 1.0935 support and 1.1000 resistance, following a sharp bullish leg from last week. Price is clearly slowing down, with smaller candles and rejection wicks near key levels — a sign of indecision, but also of an incoming breakout.
⚙️ Price Structure Overview:
The pair is forming higher lows but struggling to break above the psychological barrier at 1.1000, suggesting early signs of bullish exhaustion.
1.0935 has acted as a short-term demand zone, with price reacting to it multiple times, creating a clear price floor.
Buyers and sellers are now locked in a tight range — volatility is shrinking, and volume is likely building behind the scenes.
🧭 Key Levels to Watch:
🔼 Bullish Breakout Scenario:
If EURUSD breaks and closes firmly above 1.1000, we could see bullish continuation toward:
Target 1: 1.1035 – previous price reaction level.
Target 2: 1.1070 – resistance from late March.
A strong 1H close above 1.1000 confirms bulls are in control and may trigger stop orders above the round number.
🔽 Bearish Rejection / Breakdown Scenario:
If price fails to break above 1.1000 and breaks below 1.0935, it opens the door for a short-term correction:
Target 1: 1.0900 – strong structure and psychological zone.
Target 2: 1.0860 – last major higher low and liquidity pocket.
A clean breakdown below 1.0935 with momentum would indicate the bulls are losing control.
⏳ Conclusion:
The market is too quiet right now, and that’s never a good sign — this kind of compression usually ends in a sharp impulsive move. Whether it’s a breakout above 1.1000 or a breakdown under 1.0935, a decision is coming.
This is a textbook case of “don’t predict — prepare”. Smart price action traders are watching... and waiting.
WTI Continues Sharp Decline and Enters Oversold TerritoryOver the past five trading sessions, oil prices have dropped more than 17% , with WTI crude falling below the $60 per barrel mark. This move reflects ongoing market uncertainty, as investors expect the new trade war to significantly weaken oil demand in the coming months. As long as confidence remains in a fragile zone, downward pressure on oil prices is likely to persist.
Break of the Sideways Channel
In recent weeks, a key sideways channel that had held since November 2023 has been broken. This shift could alter the neutral outlook that has dominated the oil market in the long term and now points toward seller dominance. As price movements stabilize, a stronger bearish trend may begin to develop in the short term.
Oversold Conditions Appear
RSI: The RSI line is currently holding below the 30 level, which signals oversold conditions on the indicator. This suggests that while bearish pressure has been dominant, the market may be entering an early stage of exhaustion, potentially opening the door for short-term bullish corrections.
Bollinger Bands: The price has completely broken through the lower Bollinger Band, indicating that it has moved beyond two standard deviations from the mean. This reflects high volatility and could signal a pause in selling momentum. In turn, it may lead to potential rebound zones forming soon.
Key Levels:
$58 – Near Support: This is the most important short-term barrier, aligning with multi-year lows not seen since 2021. Continued selling below this level could reinforce the current bearish bias.
$66 – Near Resistance: This level marks the lower boundary of the former sideways channel. It may act as a potential zone for bullish corrections in the short term.
$73 – Distant Resistance: This level aligns with the 200-period moving average. Price action approaching this area could reactivate the previously abandoned uptrend.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
NATGAS Bearish Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NATGAS made a bearish
Breakout of the key horizontal
Resistance of 3.626$ and the
Breakout is confirmed so we
Are bearish biased and we will
Be expecting a further
Bearish move down
Sell!
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.