XAUUSDUnder the current conditions, reaching 2840 requires a strong candlestick breakout above the 2830 resistance.
Probability of reaching 2840 today:
Given the resistance at 2830 and the approach of high-volatility sessions (such as New York), the probability of reaching 2840 remains **70%**, provided a valid breakout occurs.
Recommendation:
**Key Levels:**
- A breakout above **2830** with strong bullish candles signals continuation toward **2840**.
- In case of a pullback, watch the **2816-2820** support zone for potential rebounds.
**Trade Management:**
- If in profit, use a **trailing stop** around **2820** to protect gains.
- A breakout of **2830** may provide an opportunity to **add buy positions**.
- If market conditions change or new price action signals emerge, the analysis can be updated accordingly.
Commodities
Market Forecast UPDATES! Tuesday, Feb 4thIn this video, we will update the forecasts for the following markets:
ES \ S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC |Gold
SiI | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GOLD Setting up for a nice run!Now that we are in a new week and new month it looks like its setting up for a big move. Just have to wait for the killzones for a solid entry. I just need to see it fill in some gaps. Waiting for the Asian range but it looks like it might be bearish until the London session. For London we could see a sweep and then aggressive push to go bullish. We just have to wait and see.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
The Nasdaq closed lower, forming a lower wick at the bottom. The market initially dropped in pre-market trading due to Trump’s tariff imposition issue but recovered to close the gap after the one-month grace period for Mexico was announced.
At yesterday’s closing price, the daily MACD triggered a sell signal. Although there was a gap-up today, further declines are likely as the resistance level holds. However, the MACD and Signal lines are still above the zero line on the daily chart, and it will take time for the 3-day and 5-day moving averages to pull down, suggesting that the index may form a wide-ranging box pattern before the trend leans towards further declines.
On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal appeared, and after a rebound, the MACD and Signal lines are reconnecting. Since a golden cross has not yet formed, a sell strategy on rebounds would be favorable. If the MACD fails to break above the Signal line and declines, a third wave of selling could follow.
From a broader perspective, the 5-day moving average on the monthly chart coincides with the lower boundary of the daily box pattern. Until this level is strongly broken downward, short-term buy opportunities remain valid near the lower boundary of the range.
OIL
Oil gapped up but closed lower. The price failed to break above $75, leaving an upper wick. The one-month tariff grace period for Canada resulted in a gap-down movement.
The key question is whether oil will attempt another rebound, using the 240-day moving average as support. It is crucial to see if a bullish candlestick forms while maintaining support above the 240-day moving average.
On the weekly chart, oil is trapped within a box range, and as the week progresses, it will be important to assess whether conditions develop for a breakout next week.
On the 240-minute chart, a rebound has occurred up to the 60-day moving average, following the characteristics of the 240-day moving average. Since the MACD and Signal lines remain below zero, selling pressure may persist. However, this is a high-probability divergence zone. If the third wave of selling fails and prices rebound, a sharp surge is possible, so traders should be cautious with aggressive short positions.
The overall approach should be to trade within the range, favoring buy positions on pullbacks.
GOLD
Gold dropped to the 10-day moving average but found support and closed higher. On the monthly chart, a pullback to the 3-day moving average around 2,770 is possible, and a correction to the low 2,800s has already occurred.
Gold's volatility is extreme due to tariff issues, so traders must carefully adjust their leverage to ensure safe trading.
On the daily chart, MACD continues to rise, so as long as the price does not close below the 10-day moving average, a buy strategy is recommended.
On the 240-minute chart, gold formed a buy signal after a pullback and is attempting a third wave of buying. However, it is crucial that gold continues rising to avoid forming a bearish divergence. If further gains do not materialize, gold may enter a box pattern.
Overall, a buy strategy remains favorable for gold. However, traders should be cautious of increased volatility due to today’s JOLTS report.
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 21510 / 21410 / 21345 / 21220 / 21120
-Sell Levels: 21580 / 21640 / 21680 / 21780
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 71.80 / 71.30 / 70.50 / 69.85
-Sell Levels: 72.75 / 73.15 / 73.80 / 74.50
GOLD - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 2844 / 2832 / 2827 / 2820
-Sell Levels: 2859 / 2864 / 2870 / 2874 / 2885
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
GOLD Breaks Resistance - Can Bulls Maintain Momentum?OANDA:XAUUSD has broken above a major resistance level and is currently retesting this level as support. This area has historically acted as a key decision point, and its role as new support will be crucial in determining the next move. If buyers step in and successfully defend this level, I anticipate a continuation of the bullish trend, with price targeting the 2,830 level. This scenario aligns with the broader uptrend and could offer a strong buying opportunity.
However, if this support level fails to hold and sellers push the price below it, we could see further bearish momentum, potentially leading to a deeper pullback. Traders should closely monitor price action for confirmation signals, such as bullish engulfing candles, strong buying volume, or a clear rejection wick, which would indicate that buyers are reclaiming control.
Keeping an eye on market structure and key technical signals will be essential for making informed trading decisions.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Feb 3, 2025 Afternoon UpdateWell, it seems everyone did quite well playing my prediction of a breakdown (again) in the markets today. Last week, I continued to warn the markets were very fragile and would likely break downward aggressively.
Of course, the political drama (tariffs) helped to move the markets a bit this weekend. But, still, it was great to hear from everyone who made a healthy profit today.
GET SOME.
I also have been getting questions about the RALLY - RALLY - (counter-trend) RALLY setting up on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday this week. So, I created this video to help you understand why I believe those RALLY days will be rather muted on Wednesday/Thursday and maybe a type of topping pattern on Tuesday.
I see the markets as breaking downward (breaking away from the dual Excess Phase Peak patterns), and because of that, I see the markets should attempt to move aggressively downward over the next 15+ days. I don't see any reason for the markets to mount a big rally right now - unless we are talking about a pullback in a downtrend.
So, watch this video, pay attention to what I see, and then we'll see how things play out.
Go GET SOME. This is a true trader's market.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
WTI CRUDE OIL Sell signal under the 1day MA50WTI Crude Oil / USOIL has tested and held the 1day MA50 for two straight days.
Today's volatile candle though suggests that one more test is possible and the last time we saw this pattern was in late April 2024.
The two patterns have similar 1day RSI fractals, so the sell trigger here is the 1day MA50.
If we cross under it, sell and target Support B at 69.00.
Previous chart:
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
GOLD → The trend is not broken, gold could go even higherFX:XAUUSD continues to strengthen after a small correction. There is a zone of interest ahead and the price may form a correction to the support before it starts to storm ATH
Gold is rising due to the growing risks on the background of the tariff war started by Trump. Despite the risks posed by the US residents as well, he is willing to continue to do so. In addition, his comment about the Fed, “The Fed made the right decision last week to hold off on cutting rates” gave aggressive support to the dollar, but that didn't break gold, which is heading for the highs. The trend is not broken and interest in the metal due to growing risks is also growing. The focus is on US and Chinese economic data as well as Fed statements.
Technically, the support in the form of the previous ATH - 2790 plays a key role and gold may test this area once again before continuing its growth. But, in the short term, it is worth keeping an eye on 2800.
Support levels: 2795, 2790
Resistance levels: 2802, 2808
There may be a small correction from 2802 or from 0.7-0.79 fibo before the price decides to storm this area again to consolidate above the support before rising further.
Regards R. Linda!
Tariffs and Gold: A Trade War’s Golden Ripple EffectTariffs, especially those involving major economies like the U.S. and China, can impact gold prices by influencing inflation, economic growth, and market uncertainty. If tariffs lead to trade wars, economic slowdowns, or higher consumer prices, investors may seek gold as a hedge against inflation and economic instability, driving prices up. Conversely, if tariffs strengthen a country’s economy by protecting domestic industries and boosting confidence in the local currency, gold prices may decline as investors favor riskier assets. The overall effect depends on how tariffs influence global economic conditions and investor sentiment.
NATURAL GAS: Channel Down bottomed and is rebounding to 4.800Natural Gas is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.119, MACD = -0.072, ADX = 39.523) as the bearish wave of the long term Channel Up found support on its bottom and the 1D MA100 and is rebounding. It hasn't yet crossed over the 1D MA50 but when it does the bullish signal will be validated. On any occassion, last time the 1D RSI rebounded near this level, it was on the October 18th and August 27th 2024 lows. Both later rebounded by at least +60.48%. We aim for a similar target (TP = 4.800).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Short Idea On ZC1! (Corn)1)On Cot data,we can see the commercials shorting at the extremes.
2)Seasonality gives us a short bias and quantitative data shows 80% win rate for shorts.
3) We overvalued on daily and weekly timeframe against several benchmarks
4) On weekly timeframe,the price rejected the EMA Forming a Pin bar reversal
5) I set the entry and stoploss on the supply structure as you can see in the picture
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Great start to the week with our chart idea playing out perfectly, as analysed.
We started with our bearish target at 2794 hit followed with cross and lock opening 2778, which was also hit. No further cross and lock below 2778 confirmed the rejection for the bounce from the weighted level. This bounce completed our Bullish target above 2807 and then a further cross and clock confirming 2819, which was also hit. True level to level action with confirmations!!
We will now look for a cross and lock above 2819 for a continuation or a failure to lock above will see Goldturns below tested for support.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2807 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2807 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2819 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2819 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2832
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2832 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2845
BEARISH TARGETS
2794 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2794 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2778 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2778 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2764
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2764 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE
2753 - 2739
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2739 WILL OPEN THE SWIG RAGE
SWING RANGE
2722 - 2707
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold Wave 5 Bull Complete?!We previously mistook the $2,790 peak as the Wave 5 high which was wrong. We have re-counted the wave analysis & updated accordingly!
Gold is currently in its Wave 5 bull run which should be ending soon. Drop down to the lower TF’s to look for a change in market structure to bearish, before entering sell’s.
BTC/USD : Bull or More Bear ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the 6-hour Bitcoin chart, we can see that, as expected, the price successfully surged to $106,500, hitting the $104,200 and $105,300 targets.
Last night, Bitcoin experienced a decline, finally filling the Fair Value Gap (FVG) we discussed in the previous two analyses, with a correction extending to $91,000. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $95,000, and as long as it holds above the $90,000 support, we can anticipate further upside.
The next potential targets are $96,200, $97,600, and $101,700.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
XNG/USD "Natural Gas" Energy Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the XNG/USD "Natural Gas" Energy Metal market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 👀 Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📉 : Traders & Thieves with New Entry A Bear trade can be initiated at any price level.
however I advise placing sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 4h period, the recent / nearest high level
Goal 🎯: 2.950 (or) Before escape in the market
Scalpers, take note : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, Sentimental Outlook:
The XNG/USD "Natural Gas" Energy market is expected to move in a bearish direction, driven by several key factors.
Based on current market conditions, the XNG/USD Natural Gas market is expected to move in a Bearish direction.
🔆Fundamental Factors:
-Supply and Demand Balance: The natural gas market is expected to move into a supply surplus, driven by increasing production and decreasing demand.
-US Natural Gas Production: US natural gas production is expected to increase, putting downward pressure on prices.
-LNG Export Capacity: Increasing LNG export capacity from the US is expected to put downward pressure on natural gas prices.
🔆Macroeconomic Factors:
-Mild Winter Weather: Warmer-than-expected winter weather in the US is expected to decrease demand for natural gas, putting downward pressure on prices.
-Global Economic Slowdown: Slowing global economic growth, particularly in China, is expected to decrease demand for natural gas.
-US Dollar Strength: A stronger US dollar is expected to put downward pressure on natural gas prices, making them more expensive in international markets.
🔆Trader/Market Sentimental Analysis:
-Trader Sentiment: The CoT report shows that speculative traders are net short natural gas, indicating a bearish sentiment.
-Market Sentiment: The market sentiment is bearish, with many analysts expecting natural gas prices to decline due to the supply and demand balance.
-Technical Analysis: The technical analysis shows that natural gas is in a downtrend, with a bearish breakdown below the $3.00 level.
🔆Sentimental Outlook:
Bearish Sentiment: 65%
Bullish Sentiment: 20%
Neutral Sentiment: 15%
🔆Overall, the bearish outlook is driven by a combination of macroeconomic and fundamental factors, with a 60% chance of a bearish move, 20% chance of a bullish move, and 20% chance of a neutral move.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
🚨Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
🚨Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
GOLD Buyers In Panic! SELL!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on GOLD and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 2797.9 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 2778.9
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
"WTI / US OIL SPOT" Energy Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "WTI / USOIL SPOT" Energy market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 :
"The loot's within reach! Wait for the breakout, then grab your share - whether you're a Bullish thief or a Bearish bandit!"
Buy entry above 76.00
Sell Entry below 72.00
Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at 74.00 (swing Trade) for Bullish Trade
Thief SL placed at 74.00 (swing Trade) for Bearish Trade
Using the 4H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many orders you have to take.
Target 🎯:
-Bullish Robbers TP 81.50 (or) Escape Before the Target
-Bearish Robbers TP 67.00 (or) Escape Before the Target
Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
"WTI / USOIL SPOT" Energy market is currently experiencing a Neutral trend (there is a higher chance for Bearish)., driven by several key factors.
♻ Fundamental Analysis:
Supply and Demand: Neutral, with growing demand for oil offset by rising US oil production.
OPEC Production: Neutral, with OPEC's production cuts offset by rising US oil production.
Global Economic Growth: Neutral, with a slow global economic recovery expected.
♻ Macro Economics:
Global Economic Growth: Neutral, with a slow global economic recovery expected.
Inflation: Neutral, with low inflation expected in major economies.
Interest Rates: Neutral, with interest rates expected to remain stable.
♻ COT Report:
Non-Commercial Traders: Bearish, with 55% of non-commercial traders holding short positions.
Commercial Traders: Bullish, with 60% of commercial traders holding long positions.
Levieraged Funds: Bearish, with 58% of leveraged funds holding short positions.
♻ Sentimental Analysis:
Market Sentiment: Bearish, with 52% of traders holding short positions.
Retail Trader Sentiment: Bullish, with 65% of retail traders holding long positions.
Institutional Trader Sentiment: Bearish, with 60% of institutional traders holding short positions.
♻ Overall Outlook:
Bearish: 52%
Bullish: 30%
Neutral: 18%
Based on the overall analysis, the outlook for WTI Commodity CFD is bearish, with a target price of around $60-$62 per barrel.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤗
XAUUSD → Since the trend is still intact, gold may rise evekeeps getting stronger following a minor adjustment. A zone of interest is ahead, and before the price begins to storm the ATH, it can correct to the support.
The escalating risks associated with Trump's tariff battle are driving up the price of gold. He is prepared to keep doing so in spite of the dangers that the US citizens also present. The dollar also received strong support from his statement regarding the Fed, "The Fed made the right decision last week to hold off on cutting rates," while gold, which is on its way to the highs, was unaffected. The tendency is continuing, and as the risks associated with the metal increase, so does interest in it. The Fed announcement and US and Chinese economic data are the main topics.
Technically, the preceding ATH-2790 serves as a crucial support, and gold may test this region once more before extending its upward trajectory. However, it is worthwhile to monitor 2800 in the near future.
Support levels - 2795, 2790
Resistance levels - 2802, 2808
Before the price decides to attack this level once more to consolidate above the support before rising further, there can be a slight correction from 2802 or from the 0.7-0.79 fibo.
Will Economic Data Push Gold to New ATH or Cause a Reversal?Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced the Funding Rate , and Jerome Powell's speech followed. These events created market volatility, influencing traders’ sentiment towards gold. Now, we turn our attention to today's key economic data releases .
Today's Key Data Releases & Gold Impact :
Advance GDP : The reported 2.3% is weaker than expected (2.7%), which may create mild support for gold as it signals slower economic growth. A stronger GDP reading would have strengthened the USD, putting downward pressure on gold.
Unemployment Claims : The 207K claims are better than expected (224K), suggesting a strong labor market, which may limit gold’s upside as the USD gains strength.
Advance GDP Price Index : The reported 2.2% inflation is lower than the expected 2.5%, which could reduce gold’s appeal, as it suggests easing inflationary pressure.
Given today’s key economic data, gold is likely to face downward pressure due to stronger labor market data and lower inflation, although the weaker GDP might provide some support in the short term. Expect volatility based on the combination of GDP growth and inflation trends.
------------------------------------
Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) is approaching its Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and All-Time High(ATH=$2,790.17) .
According to the theory of Elliott waves , Gold seems to be completing microwave 5 of the main wave 5 . The main wave 5 can be completed in PRZ . ( Of course, if the other wave counting scenario happens, we should have a correction from PRZ ).
I expect Gold to follow the Roadmap I specified in the chart.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 1-hour time frame.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.