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Gold Bull Markets: Long-Term Overview & Current Market UpdateGold Bull Markets: Long-Term Overview & Current Market Update (2024–2025) ________________________________________ 🏆 Historic Gold Bull Markets: Timeline & Stats 1️⃣ 1968–1980 “Super Bull” • Start/End: 1968 ($35) → 1980 ($850) • Total Gain: ~2,330% • Key Drivers: o End of the gold standard (Bretton Woods collapse) o Double-digit inflation, oil shocks o Political/economic turmoil (Vietnam, stagflation) • Correction: o Nearly –45% drop (1974–1976) • Recovery: o Took years; massive rebounds afterward 2️⃣ 1999–2012 Bull Market • Start/End: 1999 ($252) → 2012 ($1,920) • Total Gain: ~650% • Key Drivers: o Commodities supercycle o Emerging market demand o US dollar weakness, financial crisis fears • Correction: o ~–30% during 2008 crisis, but fast recovery • Recovery: o Rebounded quickly after 2008, then peaked in 2011–12 3️⃣ 2016/2018–2027 (Current Cycle) • Start/End: 2016/2018 ($1,050–$1,200) → ongoing ($3,500+) • Key Drivers: o Record central bank buying o Persistent inflation & low real rates o Geopolitical instability (Russia/Ukraine, China/US, etc.) • Correction: o Only –20% drawdown in 2022; quick recovery o Broke 13-year technical “cup-and-handle” base in 2024 ________________________________________ 📊 Current Bull Market Stats (2025) – At a Glance Metric 1968–80 Super Bull 1999–2012 Bull 2018–2025 Current Bull 🚀 Total Gain ~2,330% ~650% ~200% so far ⏲️ Duration 12 years 13 years 7–9 years so far 💔 Max Drawdown –45% (1974–76) –30% (2008) –20% (2022) 🏦 Central Bank Role Moderate Emerging Dominant 📉 Correction Recovery Years 4 years Months 🏛️ Technical Pattern Secular breakout Multiple peaks 13-yr base breakout ________________________________________ 📈 Top 10 Stats of the Current Gold Bull Market (2025): 1. Gold Price: o ~$3,338–$3,364/oz; ATH > $3,500 in April 2025 2. Year-to-Date Gain: o +29% YTD (2025); +30% in 2024 3. Central Bank Demand: o 1,000 tonnes bought for 4th straight year; reserves near records 4. Inflation Hedge: o Strong negative correlation with real yields; safe-haven demand up 5. Gold vs S&P 500: o Gold +27% YTD; S&P 500 up only ~2% 6. Jewelry Demand: o Down –9% in 2024, projected –16% in 2025 (high prices suppress demand) 7. Gold-Silver Ratio: o Now ~94 (down from 105); silver catching up 8. Record Closes: o Over 40 daily record closes in 2025; price consolidating near highs 9. Technical Breakout: o 13-year “cup-and-handle” breakout (March 2024) 10. 2025 Forecasts: • Range: $3,600–$4,000 by Q2 2026; some see $4,500+ if risks persist ________________________________________ 🔄 How This Bull Market Stands Out • Dominance of Central Banks: Central banks are setting the pace—record demand, making gold a reserve anchor again. • Faster Recovery: Corrections are less severe, recoveries are quick (months, not years). • Synchronized Rally with Equities: Rare for gold and stocks to hit highs together—shows systemic confidence in gold. • Technical Breakout: 13-year base break signals powerful, long-term momentum. • Future Outlook: Targets as high as $7,500/oz (650% from cycle lows) possible by 2026/27, if historical analogs play out. ________________________________________ ⭐️ Recommended Strategy (2025 and Beyond) • BUY/HOLD/ACCUMULATE on Dips: Favor physical gold, gold ETFs (GLD), and miners (GDX). • Physical Over Paper: Preference for allocated, physical bullion amid rising counterparty risks. • Diversify with Miners/Silver: Gold-silver ratio suggests silver may offer leverage; quality miners benefit in the latter stage of bull runs. • Long-Term Perspective: Anticipate volatility, but higher highs are likely if macro themes persist. ________________________________________ 🧭 Summary Table: Historic vs Current Bull Markets Feature 1968–80 1999–2012 2016/18–2027 Total Gain 2,330% 650% 200%+ (so far) Duration 12 yrs 13 yrs 7–9 yrs (so far) Correction –45% –30% –20% Main Buyer Retail Funds Central Banks Pattern Parabolic Cyclical Cup & Handle Key Risks Inflation USD/credit Inflation, war, geopolitics ________________________________________ Key Takeaways • Gold’s current bull market is distinguished by relentless central bank demand, robust technical momentum, and swift recoveries from corrections. • The macro backdrop—persistent inflation, global uncertainty, and sovereign de-dollarization—supports an extended cycle. • Expectations for $4,000+ gold in the next 12–24 months are widely held, with even higher targets in a true global crisis.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
37
H4 Outlook | XAUUSD Monday • June 30 • 2025Hey fam, Fresh week on gold — clean structure, clean levels, clean execution ahead. Forget the noise. We trade price, we trust precision. 🔍 Market Flow & Bias Gold remains bearish on the H4 timeframe. Lower highs, lower lows, clean rejection from supply, and all EMAs (21/50/200) aligned down. RSI hovers near 30, showing heavy momentum — not exhaustion yet. Price is coiled, not crushed. If structure holds, we follow the short flow into deeper zones. 📌 Bias: Bearish below 3325. Pullbacks into supply = opportunity. — 🧱 Zones of Interest (Clean & Confluent) 🔺 Zone 1 – 3380–3405 | Extreme Supply Top OB zone with resting liquidity above. If price sweeps this level and fails, expect a sharp reversal. Only valid with reaction (CHoCH or bearish engulfing). 🔺 Zone 2 – 3325–3350 | Main Supply Strong H4 breaker block. Origin of the last major selloff. Already defended once — if it holds again, look for sniper shorts from within. 🔺 Zone 3 – 3285–3305 | Frontline Supply First inducement zone. Clean micro-OB that could give early fade trades. If bulls break through, Zone 2 becomes magnet. ⚖️ Zone 4 – 3260–3240 | Flip Shelf Range base. If price holds, bulls might step in short-term. But a clean break below shifts momentum fully toward lower demand. 🟢 Zone 5 – 3215–3195 | Main Demand Unmitigated OB with imbalance. If gold drops here with momentum and forms rejection wicks or CHoCH on LTF → long opportunity for bounce. 🟢 Zone 6 – 3150–3120 | Extreme Demand Macro swing demand. Deepest discount level on the chart. Valid only if market flushes — this is the “last stand” for buyers. — 🎯 Key Levels Zone Cheat-Sheet Above • 3380–3405 → Extreme Supply (trap zone) • 3325–3350 → Main Supply block • 3285–3305 → Micro OB inducement Below • 3260–3240 → Flip shelf (structural pivot) • 3215–3195 → Main buy zone • 3150–3120 → Deep macro demand — ⚔️ Execution Plan We sell from reaction zones, not assumptions. We buy from confluence, not hope. Every zone above comes with condition: no confirmation, no entry. — 📣 Found this useful? Drop a ⚔️ in the comments, tag your bias, 🚀and follow GoldFxMinds for sniper-level execution. This isn’t guessing. This is structure. This is clarity.
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
Daily Outlook | XAUUSD June 30, 2025Hey traders, Fresh week, clean structure. Let’s lock in the key levels and let price do the talking. 🌐 Macro Context It’s a heavy week for USD – all major data drops before Friday: Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing + Powell speaks Wednesday: ADP Employment Thursday: NFP, Unemployment Rate, ISM Services Friday: US holiday – markets closed 📌 This means liquidity will build into Thursday, then fade. Expect gold to stay range-bound early in the week, unless momentum shifts hard today. Volatility should peak around NFP. 🧭 Daily Structure & Bias Gold opened weak under 3287, still below 21EMA and 50EMA. The structure shows lower highs, bearish control, and no signs of strength reclaiming ground. RSI is at 42 — momentum down, but not oversold yet. Unless price breaks back above 3340, sellers stay in control. ✅ D1 Bias: Bearish while under 3340 📌 Key D1 Zones to Watch 🔺 D1 Breaker Block – 3340–3355 Former support, now clean resistance. Includes 50EMA and last failed closes. If price rejects again here, bearish continuation likely. A daily close above 3355 flips short bias. 🔺 D1 Supply + FVG – 3385–3405 Unmitigated imbalance from early June. If price pushes through 3355, this is the next upside magnet. Good spot for first reaction. ⚖️ D1 Decision Zone – 3287–3265 Current price zone. Multiple past reactions. A daily close below 3265 confirms breakdown. Holding above = more choppy range. 🟢 D1 Reaction Shelf – 3210–3180 Minor support zone from April candle bodies. Can slow price, but not strong enough for reversal on its own. 🟢 D1 Demand Block – 3155–3120 First major HTF demand. Includes 200EMA, strong structure, and previous breakout base. If price sells into it fast, watch for rejection — but only with confirmation. 🟢 D1 Macro Demand – 3090–3055 Final line of macro defense. Clean imbalance + demand from February. Valid only if sentiment breaks post-NFP. ✅ Final Summary • Below 3265 = structure breaks → opens 3180 • 3155–3120 = real support zone • Below 3120 = macro shift risk • Reclaiming 3340 = short bias invalid • Break above 3385 = continuation possible 📌 Today is all about the close. No confirmation = no trade. Thursday is the real trigger — be positioned, not exposed. — 📣 If this gave you clarity and structure, drop a 🔥, share your bias, and follow GoldFxMinds for sniper plans with zero fluff — only clean, confirmed price action.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by GoldFxMinds
Weekly Outlook | XAUUSD June 30 – July 4, 2025Welcome to a new trading week. Let’s break down the gold chart from a clean, high-timeframe perspective. No setups, no noise – just structure, momentum, and zones that matter. 🌐 Macro Overview This week concentrates all key USD events into one tight window: Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing + Fed Chair Powell speech Wednesday: ADP Employment Thursday: NFP, Unemployment Rate, ISM Services PMI Friday: US holiday – markets closed 📌 This means liquidity and momentum will peak by Thursday, then fade into the weekend. Expect gold to stay in range until macro data breaks direction. 🧠 Weekly Structure & Momentum Gold remains in a bullish macro structure, but price is hesitating below 3300. Last two weekly candles printed long upper wicks with no body follow-through – clear sign of distribution, not continuation. We’re still trading above the 21EMA Weekly, which maintains the uptrend’s integrity. RSI (14): sitting at ~59 → no real momentum breakout, just consolidation. 📌 The chart is not reversing, but it’s also not trending anymore. We’re in a decision zone. 📍 Key Weekly Areas of Interest 3430 – 3500 → W1 Imbalance + March High Sweep This is a wide weekly imbalance left unfilled since March, paired with the prior 2024 swing high. 3500 is also a psychological round number. If price pushes into this area, it becomes a liquidity target, not an entry – unless a clear rejection forms. 3330 – 3230 → Weekly Decision Block This is the current consolidation range. It includes multiple W1 candle bodies, wick highs/lows, and volume cluster. – Weekly close above 3330 = likely bullish continuation toward 3430+ – Weekly close below 3230 = confirms weakness and opens path to the next major support 3080 – 2970 → Weekly Demand + Fib 38% Clean block of accumulation from April–May, aligned with the 38.2% retracement of the 2024 rally. This is where we’d expect institutional buying interest on a deeper pullback. A weekly candle with a long wick into this zone + strong close would reset bullish structure. 2850 – 2720 → Last Macro Demand Zone This zone includes the 50EMA weekly, a weekly FVG from late 2023, and unmitigated demand before the full 2024 breakout. If price ever gets here, we’re no longer in a healthy uptrend – we’re correcting structurally. But this zone will matter if that happens. 🧭 Summary & Expectations Gold is still inside a large weekly range. Until we break above 3330 or below 3230, it’s just consolidation on the HTF. Thursday’s data will decide the candle. Don’t predict direction — let the W1 close speak. 📌 Final Notes: Above 3330 = room toward 3430–3500 Below 3230 = risk opens toward 3080–2970 Inside = no directional edge — stay reactive, not biased 🔥 If you enjoy this clean breakdown: hit that 🚀, follow & drop your thoughts below! Stay sharp traders — we execute with precision. — GoldFxMinds
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
1
GOLD (XAUUSD): Your Trading Plan for Monday Gold went strongly rejected from a key daily support on Friday. Your confirmation signal for a pullback trade from that will be a bullish breakout and an hourly candle close above 3283 intraday resistance. After that the price will likely reach 3292 level. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by VasilyTrader
8
Is the Uptrend Over? Critical Break on the Silver 1-Hour ChartHey everyone, After the upward trend structure on XAGUSD broke down, the support level was breached, followed by a pullback. Because of this, my target level is 35.286.💬 Also, keep a close eye on key economic data releases on the fundamental side, as they could significantly influence your strategy. I meticulously prepare these analyses for you, and I sincerely appreciate your support through likes. Every like from you is my biggest motivation to continue sharing my analyses. I’m truly grateful for each of you—love to all my followers💙💙💙
FXOPEN:XAGUSDShort
by TraderTilki
RSI Flashes Warning on EURUSD: Critical Level Under Watch!Good morning traders, If the EURUSD pair breaks below the 1.16729 level due to an RSI divergence, the next potential target could be around 1.16093. Keep in mind that a break below 1.16729 may also signal a potential trend reversal. I've marked the pivot points for you on the chart for better clarity. Additionally, it's crucial to keep an eye on current economic data and news releases as part of your fundamental analysis. I meticulously prepare these analyses for you, and I sincerely appreciate your support through likes. Every like from you is my biggest motivation to continue sharing my analyses. I’m truly grateful for each of you—love to all my followers💙💙💙
by TraderTilki
2
Silver-The Next Gold?The precious metals market is abuzz with a compelling question: Is silver poised to become the next gold? As gold continues its record-breaking ascent, investors and analysts are turning their attention to silver, which has demonstrated remarkable performance and potential in 2025. Let’s dive into the factors driving silver’s price, expert forecasts, and what the future may hold for this dynamic metal. Silver’s 2025 Surge: Outpacing Expectations Silver prices have surged impressively in 2025, recently trading above $34 per ounce—a 14% year-to-date increase that outpaces many other commodities. This rally is not just a speculative spike; it’s underpinned by robust fundamentals, including: Gold’s record run, which historically pulls silver prices higher due to their strong correlation Persistent supply deficits, with 2025 marking the fifth consecutive year of market shortfall Soaring industrial demand, especially from the green technology and electronics sectors Renewed safe-haven buying amid ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties #commodity #silver #gold #xau #metals #finance #market #trading #portfolio #analysis
CAPITALCOM:SILVER
by signalgo
Brent Oil – Bearish Break or Bounce from Long-Term Support?Brent Oil is hovering just above critical support near 66.00, with a clear bearish structure visible across timeframes: 🔎 15m & 1h: Price action is consolidating near the ascending support trendline drawn from early June lows. Short-term price structure shows lower highs and lower lows, suggesting continued downside pressure. 📉 4h & 1D: The recent sell-off from above 78.00 has pushed Brent back into the lower region of the broad descending channel. Daily and 4h charts show price testing confluence between the horizontal support at ~66.00 and a long-term rising trendline. A confirmed close below this level could accelerate bearish momentum towards 64.00 or even 62.00. ⚠️ Key Levels: • Support: 66.00, 64.00, 62.00 • Resistance: 67.00, 69.00 • Bias: Bearish – price remains in a clear downtrend unless buyers reclaim above 67.50 with strong volume. 📌 Outlook: As long as Brent holds below 67.00 and the descending trendline caps rallies, my bias is bearish. A breakdown of 66.00 on higher timeframes would open the door for a move towards lower channel support levels. However, if buyers defend and push back above 67.50, we could see a short-term relief rally.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_BRENTShort
by AutoMarkets
Gold Rebounds After Filling Gap >> Bullish Continuation in SightHello guys! Gold (XAU/USD) is showing signs of strength on the 4H chart after filling a key gap around the $3,290 level and bouncing off it with bullish intent. 🔹 What I see: – Price previously broke out of a broad descending channel, flipping the structure bullish – After forming a rising wedge, Gold corrected lower and filled the gap – The zone around $3,290 acted as solid support, and the current bounce suggests bulls are regaining control 📈 Outlook: If this bounce holds and momentum builds, the next area of interest is clearly marked: 🎯 First Target: $3,466 – an area of prior structure and possible supply 📍 Current Price: $3,329 🟢 Bias: Bullish (above $3,290) 🔴 Invalidated below: $3,244 This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward opportunity if the structure continues holding. Keep an eye on price action near the recent local highs for confirmation.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by melikatrader94
25
Gold may bounce up from support line of channel to 3330 pointsHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. Previously, the price broke out of a symmetrical triangle and moved confidently toward the seller zone. However, it failed to consolidate there and formed a downward channel, where price action has remained since. The movement inside this channel has been consistent, respecting both the resistance and support lines. After reaching the lower boundary, the price bounced up and approached the resistance area (3290 - 3300), which now acts as a key short-term obstacle. This zone was tested multiple times and served as support earlier, making it a strong technical level. Currently, the price is trading just below this zone and forming a base for the next move. I expect a possible retest of the support line of the downward channel, which may provide the impulse needed for a new upward move. In my opinion, the price will rebound from the bottom of the channel and start to grow toward the current resistance level at 3300. If this level is broken and confirmed via a retest, I expect continued movement toward the channel’s upper resistance line. That’s why I set my TP 1 at 3330 points, right near the resistance line of the channel. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀 Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by LegionQ8
21
SMC Trading Basics. Change of Character - CHoCH (GOLD FOREX) In the today's post, we will discuss one of the most crucial concepts in SMC - Change of Character. Change of Character relates to market trend analysis. In order to understand its meaning properly, first, we will discuss how Smart Money traders execute trend analysis. 🔘Smart Money Traders apply price action for the identification of the direction of the market. They believe that the trend is bullish , if the price forms at least 2 bullish impulse with 2 consequent higher highs and a higher low between them. The market trend is considered to be bearish , if the market forms at least 2 bearish impulses with 2 consequent lower lows and a lower high between them. Here is how the trend analysis looks in practice. One perceives the price action as the set of impulse and retracement legs. According to the rules described above, USDCAD is trading in a bullish trend because the pair set 2 higher lows and 2 higher highs. 🔘Of course, trends do not last forever. A skill of the identification of the market reversal is a key to substantial profits in trading. Change of Character will help you quite accurately identify a bullish and bearish trend violation. 📉In a bearish trend, the main focus is the level of the last lower high. While the market is trading below or on that, the trend remains bearish . However, its bullish violation is a very important bullish signal, it is called a Change of Character, and it signifies a confirmed violation of a bearish trend. In a bearish trend, CHoCH is a very powerful bullish pattern. Take a look, how accurate CHoCH indicated the trend reversal on Gold. After a massive selloff, a bullish breakout of the level of the last lower high confirmed the initiation of a strong bullish wave. 📈In a bullish trend, the main point of interest is the level of the last higher low. While the price is trading above that or on that, the trend remains bullish. A bearish violation of the last higher low level signifies the violation of a current bullish trend. It is called a Change of Character, and it is a very accurate bearish pattern. Take a look at the example on Dollar Index below. In a bullish trend, bearish violation of the last higher low level quite accurately predicted a coming bearish reversal. Change of Character is one of the simplest , yet accurate SMC patterns that you should know. First, learn to properly execute the price action analysis and identify HH, HL, LL, LH and then CHoCH will be your main tool for the identification of the trend reversal. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
9
XAUUSD D1 Forecast: Gold at Pivotal 325x Support What's Next for the Yellow Metal? Today, we're zooming out to examine the broader picture for Gold (XAUUSD) on the Daily (D1) timeframe. Our latest analysis indicates that Gold has encountered a very strong, critical support level around the 325x region. This is a pivotal point that could significantly influence Gold's medium to long-term direction! 🌍 Macroeconomic Landscape: The Underlying Forces Influencing Gold While we've observed a degree of USD weakness stemming from speculations around the Federal Reserve (such as the rumours regarding Jerome Powell's replacement) and expectations of interest rate cuts, these factors haven't fully countered Gold's recent decline on the daily chart. Furthermore, the sustained ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to temper Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Nevertheless, the current price action at the robust 325x support level presents a significant technical signal. The impact of forthcoming US macroeconomic data (particularly the PCE Price Index on Friday) and speeches from FOMC members will be crucial in confirming or negating our projected movements for Gold. Should positive news for Gold align with this support holding, it could act as a potent catalyst. 📊 XAUUSD D1 Technical Analysis: Projecting Gold's Next Move Given that Gold has reached strong support at 325x, we can anticipate the following scenarios: Bounce from 325x (Potential Upside Phase): If the 325x area (which reinforces the 3264.400 support from image_e9d325.png) holds firm, we expect a strong reaction and an upward move for Gold. The initial target for this bounce would be the 332x region, aligning with resistance levels 3313.737 - 3330.483 from our previous analysis. On a broader timeframe (as illustrated in image_83845c.png), this corresponds to the resistance zone around 3326.022. This 332x area might represent a continuation pattern, suggesting it could be a corrective rally before the resumption of the larger trend. Resumption of Downtrend (After Reaching 332x): Once Gold reaches and tests the 332x zone (3313.737 - 3330.483 / 3326.022) and exhibits bearish confirmation signals (e.g., a strong bearish engulfing candle, a pin bar, or a clear top formation), we anticipate a resumption of the downward movement. The next major target for this decline would be the 317x area, which correlates well with the strong support at 3173.052 on the larger timeframe (as depicted in image_83845c.png). 🎯 XAUUSD D1 Trading Plan: Your Long-Term Strategy Ahead! Considering the current D1 analysis, here's our actionable plan: 1. BUY PHASE (Bounce from Support): Entry: Observe price reaction in the 325x - 326x zone (specifically 3264.400). Only consider buying if there are clear bullish confirmations (e.g., a confirmed bullish pattern on the daily or 4-hour candle, a strong bounce from the zone with significant volume). SL (Stop Loss): Position just below the 325x support zone (e.g., 3245-3240, depending on confirmation). TP (Take Profit): 3280 - 3284 - 3290 - 3295 - 3300 - 3305 - 3310 - 3313.737 - 3320 - 3326.022 (key 332x zone). This will be our primary target for the potential bounce. 2. SELL PHASE (Downtrend Resumption): Entry: Once the price reaches and tests the 332x zone (3313.737 - 3330.483 / 3326.022) and shows bearish confirmation signals (e.g., a strong bearish engulfing, pin bar, or clear top formation). SL (Stop Loss): Position slightly above the 332x zone (e.g., 3335-3340). TP (Take Profit): 3326 - 3320 - 3316 - 3310 - 3305 - 3300 - 3295 - 3290 - 3280 - 3200 - 3173.052 (final 317x target).
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MMFlowTrading
1
Gold is coiling for a breakout... All eyes on the next move!📉 Gold is currently moving within a minor descending channel. In yesterday’s analysis, I pointed out the potential for a drop. Now, after a period of range-bound movement, I expect a breakout from this channel and a return to the main trend. 🎯 The first target on a reversal would be the top of the minor channel. Keep a close eye on price action here — this zone could be key for the next move OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by shakori_erfan
1
GOLD 4H: not all that glitters is bullish...The 4H chart shows a clean descending triangle breakdown. Price failed to reclaim the trendline and was rejected under both MA50 and MA200. The bounce into 3325–3340 was absorbed — classic liquidity sweep and fade. Volume confirms bearish control. Technically, the breakdown below 3320 opens the way toward $3293 (1.0 Fibo), $3250 (1.272 extension), and final target at $3195 (1.618), where buyers might step in. RSI supports the continuation without signs of reversal. Structure broke — and the market is telling us where it's heading. Tactical plan: — Entry at market or on a retest of $3325–3335 — Targets: $3293 → $3250 → $3195 — Stop: above $3340 (above MA50 and broken trendline) When gold looks shiny, smart traders look deeper. This breakout isn’t golden — it’s a trap for late bulls.
TVC:GOLDShort
by TotoshkaTrades
Soybeans Crashing Into Demand — Reversal Coming or Trap?1. COT REPORT — Updated June 17, 2025 📌 Non-Commercials (Speculators) Long: +5,661 → 195,984 Short: -9,226 → 110,761 ✅ Net Long Increase: A clear bullish shift in speculative positioning (+14,887 net contracts). This is an early indication of a sentiment reversal. 📌 Commercials (Hedgers / Producers) Long: +6,023 Short: -5,806 ➡️ The decrease in net shorts suggests improving confidence among institutional players. 📌 Total Open Interest: 846,169 (down by 12,776) ❗ This slight drop may be linked to position rotation or partial profit-taking. 2. NET POSITIONS CHART INSIGHT Commercial traders remain structurally net short, but their exposure has been gradually declining since March. Non-commercial traders have increased their net long positions since April, aligned with the price's technical recovery. The current price is trading near the historical mean, indicating neutral conditions with potential room for further upside. 🕰️ 3. SEASONALITY OUTLOOK The June–July period has historically been bearish: June Average Performance: Last 5 years: -39.61 Last 2 years: -38.71 July Average Performance: Last 20 years: -44.82 Last 2 years: -34.73 📉 August and September typically continue this seasonal downtrend. 🟨 Caution is advised on initiating long positions during this phase. 📊 4. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK — Current Structure: Rising channel has broken to the downside with a strong bearish impulse candle. RSI is neutral but previously showed bearish divergence. Key Support Zones: 1035–1025: Intermediate support area already tested. 1012–994: Golden Pocket aligned with a demand block — likely target zone with high potential for reaction. Possible Scenarios: 🔴 Bearish Continuation: A retracement followed by a move down into the 994–1000 range, where a tactical long setup may emerge. 🔵 Bull Trap and Reversal: A rapid recovery above 1050, potentially triggering a continuation to 1080 (range top). 5. EXECUTION SUMMARY Primary Bias: Bearish in the short term 🎯 Target Zone: 994–1000 🛑 Invalidation Level: Weekly close above 1055 Tactical Long Setup: Monitor price action at 994–1000 for bullish reaction. Macro context and speculative positioning suggest a structural bottom may develop in Q3 2025, but current conditions are not yet favorable for a full swing position.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
10