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Trade Idea for XAUUSD ( SELL STOP )Trade Idea for XAUUSD Position: Short (Sell) Reasoning: 1. Technical Analysis: • Daily Chart: Price is at a key resistance level near 2775-2780, showing signs of exhaustion. • M15 Chart: Recent strong bullish momentum has met resistance, and price has started to reject lower. • M3 Chart: Short-term trend reversal, showing lower highs and a loss of bullish momentum. • Indicators: • RSI (14) on M15 & M3: Shows overbought conditions. • MACD: Weakening momentum, signaling potential for reversal. 2. Fundamental Analysis: • If upcoming macroeconomic data (e.g., NFP, FOMC, CPI) favors USD strength, gold will likely decline. • Higher U.S. bond yields or hawkish Fed sentiment can put downward pressure on XAUUSD. Trade Setup • Entry: 2775 • Stop-Loss (SL): 2785 (Above recent highs) • Take-Profit (TP): 2755 • Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 2:1 This trade idea aligns with technical resistance, short-term reversal patterns, and fundamental factors favoring a potential gold decline.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by KeN-WeNzEl
Leap Ahead with a Regression Breakout on Crude OilThe Leap Trading Competition: Your Chance to Shine TradingView’s “The Leap” Trading Competition presents a unique opportunity for traders to put their futures trading skills to the test. This competition allows participants to trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Crude Oil (CL) and Micro Crude Oil (MCL), giving traders access to one of the most actively traded commodities in the world. Register and compete in "The Leap" here: TradingView Competition Registration . This article breaks down a structured trade idea using linear regression breakouts, Fibonacci retracements, and UnFilled Orders (UFOs) to identify a long setup in Crude Oil Futures. Hopefully, this structured approach aligns with the competition’s requirements and gives traders a strong trade plan to consider. Best of luck to all participants. Spotting the Opportunity: A Regression Breakout in CL Futures Trend reversals often present strong trading opportunities. One way to detect these shifts is by analyzing linear regression channels—a statistical tool that identifies the general price trend over a set period. In this case, a 4-hour CL chart shows that price has violated the upper boundary of a downward-sloping regression channel, suggesting the potential start of an uptrend. When such a breakout aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels and existing UnFilled Orders (UFOs), traders may gain a potential extra edge in executing a structured trade plan. The Trade Setup: Combining Fibonacci and a Regression Channel This trade plan incorporates multiple factors to define an entry, stop loss, and target: o Entry Zone: An entry or pullback to the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement area, between 74.60 and 73.14, provides a reasonable long entry. o Stop Loss: Placed below 73.14 to ensure a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio. o Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at 76.05 (38.2% Fibonacci level) Second target at 77.86 (23.6% Fibonacci level) Final target at 78.71, aligning with a key UFO resistance level This approach locks in profits along the way while allowing traders to capitalize on an extended move toward the final resistance zone. Contract Specifications and Margin Considerations Understanding contract specifications and margin requirements is essential when trading futures. Below are the key details for CL and MCL: o Crude Oil Futures (CL) Contract Details Full contract specs: CL Contract Specifications – CME Group Tick size: 0.01 per barrel ($10 per tick) Margin requirements vary based on market conditions and broker requirements. Currently set around $5,800. o Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCL) Contract Details Full contract specs: MCL Contract Specifications – CME Group Tick size: 0.01 per barrel ($1 per tick) Lower margin requirements for more flexible risk control. Currently set around $580. Choosing between CL and MCL depends on risk tolerance and account size. MCL provides more flexibility for smaller accounts, while CL offers higher liquidity and contract value. Execution and Market Conditions To maximize trade efficiency, conservative traders could wait for a proper price action into the entry zone and confirm the setup using momentum indicators and/or volume trends.   Key Considerations Before Entering Ensure price reaches the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone before executing the trade Look for confirmation signals such as increased volume, candlestick formations, or additional support zones Be patient—forcing a trade without confirmation increases risk exposure Final Thoughts This Crude Oil Futures trade setup integrates multiple confluences—a regression breakout, Fibonacci retracements, and UFO resistance—to create a structured trade plan with defined risk management. For traders participating in The Leap Trading Competition, this approach emphasizes disciplined execution, dynamic risk management, and a structured scaling-out strategy, all essential components for long-term success. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
9
USOIL Trade Update📢 FX:USOIL Trade Update Hey Traders! Following recent fundamental and technical developments, we’re seeing strong bullish momentum on Crude Oil. 🔹 Fundamentals: Trump's new tariffs are driving market sentiment, pushing oil prices higher. Despite last week’s excess supply from the US oil stock inventory, Crude held strong at $72 and failed to close below the 38.2% Fib level, signaling strong buy pressure. 🔹 Technicals: The descending channel breakout confirms a bullish reversal. This rally was triggered by the tariff remarks, and if more tariffs are imposed, we could see Crude pushing towards $80+ in the coming weeks. 🎯 Plan of Action: We’ll be looking for buy/long positions on market open (Monday), ahead of the next Crude Oil inventory report. Regardless of the report outcome, momentum suggests higher prices for the black gold. 📊 Stay ready, and trade smarter! 🚀
FX:USOILLong
by niclaxfx
Beans looking to drop hard, after all... Beans have been looking weak lately, and all this current and near future trade war fundamentals and uncertainty aren't going to help at all. Volatility is likely to go up this week across a lot of markets, and the ag commodities will certainly be part of that, with emotional fears from the last market crashing during the last Trump term. Beans especially didn't fair well during that time, and the corn-to-bean ratio was out of wack to where us farmers didn't want to plant beans period. We all thought (and were told) they might go to $7 or less! All while corn was poor, but much more palatable with the breakevens. Farmers, as a rule, certainly prefer to plant corn over beans anyway, if they live where they can choose as such. But back to the bean chart, I've been thinking there was a decent enough chance we could chop around in here and bounce off of any short term weakness and key support, to make new highs for the move. A lot of guys were looking to target the high 10s and even around $11, before expecting a notable correction. Well, unfortunately, I think we've already recently peaked and are more likely to now keep correcting down, potentially quite violently. On Friday, the 20 day EMA gave us bounce off support, but if we get a confirmation close Monday below that (likely), my opinion is we confirm we're in a larger scale wave 3 down already, and should eventually target the 9.47 and likely even lower ultimately, before we bottom in February or March, before spring seasonality and US planting weather premium allows for us to rise again. Longterm, for this summer and beyond into 2026, I am quite bullish grains and ultimately, expect to see new all time highs, but it's not gonna be this year. Mostly due to the likelihood of a major cycle drought of our lifetime, which could happen this year but not truly affect the supply issue drastically until new crop turns into "old crop".
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by farmerisland
Bullish momentum to extend?The Gold (XAU/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance which lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Pivot: 2,787.21 1st Support: 2,715.57 1st Resistance: 2,858.98 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by ICmarkets
Bullish bounce?COPPER is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 4.1860 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level which is slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Stop loss: 4.1137 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level which is slightly above the 71% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 4.2958 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:COPPERLong
by VantageMarkets
Bullish momentum to extend?XAU/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 2,778.98 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 2,751.17 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 2,813.09 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:XAUUSDLong
by VantageMarkets
#202505 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Market is probably finding a bottom here around 72 and on the 4h chart this looks like a lower low major trend reversal. Confirmation would only be above 74 though. So any longs with stop below 71.8 are a good trade from the current structure. Bears have tried to make meaningful lower lows but the Monday low 72.39 was only broken by 47 ticks. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 71 - 80 bull case: Bulls let it go a bit below 74 but it does look like they want to buy this more aggressively, given the last 2 big bull bars from Friday. They need to make higher highs now and then I don’t think many bears want to fight this after they have tried to get the market below 71 for a whole week. The 50% retracement for the complete bull trend was around 74 and for the bear leg from 79 down to 72 is around 76. So my first target for the bulls is finding acceptance above 74 and then 76. On the weekly chart you can see than bulls kept it way above the breakout price of 69, so once we are seeing decent 1h closes above 73, they have taken control of the market again. Invalidation is below 71. bear case: Bears want to continue sideways between 71 and 74. The longer they do this, the better for them because we are still below the daily 20ema. Market has gone nowhere the past 5 days but at least the bears closed 4 out of 5 days red. Their issue is, that they can not find sellers below 72 so the market will try only so many times at a support price before it tries the other way or strongly breaks below it. I do think we will see a bigger impulse either on Monday or Tuesday and my money is not on the bears right now. Invalidation is above 75. short term: Slightly bullish until we get a 1h close above 74, then really bullish for 78/80. Bearish only below 71 and on very strong selling pressure. Neutral 71 - 74. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. current swing trade: None chart update: Added broken bear trend line and possible very shallow bull trend lines on higher tf.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
Bullish Momentum Catching Up in SilverThe Price has been on a quite choppy rise. It gives rise to several possible interpretations for the structure, but after several weeks of waiting it seems like it was creating a strong accumulation of orders, setting a base if you may, before taking off strongly to the upside. In the Wave Principle context we might be seeing a series of waves 1 & 2, no finally moving into the latter stages of a minor wave three. The commodities market tends to display its strongest phase of the cycle in its last leg, leading me to believe that we are about to experience an aggressive rally during the minor wave five of higher degree wave three. The rally hit a minor pause on Thursday and moved sideways for the rest of the week, however the break up should come swiftly after this coming week starts. I do need to see the price respect the Friday low at around 31.12 for the view to hold. We might see some slight variations on the theme but a continued move below said level throw a wrench on the setup as a whole. Happy Trading :)
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by HydraFinance
Platinum towards Key Resistance. Watch Closely for Confirmation OANDA:XPTUSD is approaching a significant resistance zone, an area where sellers have previously stepped in to drive prices lower. This area is a great zone to watch for potential rejection. If price struggles to break above and we see bearish confirmation, I anticipate a pullback toward the $1,010 level at least. In this recording I will be explaining in more detail why I think this is a possibility and what to look for. This is not financial advice but rather how I approach support/resistance zones. Remember, always wait for confirmation before jumping in.
OANDA:XPTUSDShort
by TrendDiva
2
Inflation vs gold correlation 60's to 80's Pattern.Gold seems to like inflation. Or, is inflation food for gold? These are chars that no one is showing you. According to this chart, Gold has a seven year bull run ahead of it that should top at some point in 2032. This a chart of the US Inflation rate on the 2 month (Blue line) right from the horses mouth, Bureau of labour statistics. On the top in gold or yellow is the gold chart. As you can clearly see, in the seventies gold was very heavily correlated with inflation. This is not my opinion this is a fact, and it will be again. THIS IS A 2 FOR ONE GUYS. INFLATION AND GOLD FORCAST ALL IN ONE!! Let me know what you think down below. Kind regards, WeAreSat0shi
ECONOMICS:USIRYYLong
by WeAreSat0shi
XAUUSD (1H) - Bullish Trend with All-Time HighOANDA:XAUUSD 📶 Technical Analysis: 🟢 Bullish Trend: Since the beginning of the year, Gold has been in a clear bullish trend on the 1-hour chart. The price has been consistently moving between the trendline support and trendline resistance, with multiple breaks and retests of resistance levels. 🟢 Last week, Gold reached a new all-time high of $2,817, marking the peak of the current rally. 🟡 Currently, Gold could face a potential correction towards the trendline support and the 200 MA, which is near the $2,770 level. This zone could act as a key support area where the price might bounce and resume its bullish trend. 🟠 If the trendline support is broken, we may see a limited bearish move, but the overall outlook remains bullish for now, as fundamental factors and economic uncertainty continue to support Gold. 🟢 As long as the trendline support holds, the bullish trend remains intact. The key support to watch is around $2,770, with resistance at the previous all-time high near $2,817. 🆕 Fundamental Analysis: 🟢 President Trump has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS nations and a 25% tax on goods from Canada and Mexico starting February 1, boosting demand for safe-haven assets like Gold, the Japanese Yen, and US bonds. 🟢 US GDP grew 2.3% in Q4 2024, lower than the expected 2.6%, which has sparked expectations that the Fed might not raise rates anytime soon. 🟢 There are growing concerns about a potential global recession, driven by factors like slowing economic growth, rising inflation, and geopolitical tensions. A recession could lead to weaker consumer demand, business cutbacks, and tighter financial conditions. This could result in a downturn for certain markets and an increased demand for safe-haven assets like Gold. 🔤 Conclusion: 🟢 Bullish Outlook for Gold: I remain bullish on Gold and am watching for a correction on the 1H chart, potentially around key support levels. 🟢 Support Levels: Look for bullish signals near these support levels, especially around the $2,770 zone, where the trendline and 200 MA could act as strong support. 🟠 Trend Breakout: A breakout of the trendline could signal a limited bearish movement, but as of now, the overall outlook remains bullish. 🟡 Economic Monitoring: Pay close attention to economic factors like GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment data, as these are crucial for defining future expectations and potential market shifts.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by boykopetevboev