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XAUUSD - gold waiting for the Federal Reserve meeting!Gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 1H time frame and is trading in its medium-term bearish channel. In the authentic failure of the support area, we can see the continuation of the gold decline and the demand zone. Within the zone of demand, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. If the resistance range is broken, you can sell in the supply zone. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting is scheduled for today. According to a recent report by Crédit Agricole, it is expected that during the December meeting, the interest rate will be reduced by 0.25%, bringing it to a range of 4.25-4.50%. While this rate cut has largely been priced into the market, the Fed’s monetary statement may carry a hawkish tone. It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will indicate slower rate cuts in 2025 due to resilient economic conditions and persistent inflation. Crédit Agricole predicts that Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, will likely hint at pausing rate cuts early in 2025. Additionally, recent employment and inflation data from November suggest that the Fed is in a position to implement this rate cut. However, the risks associated with persistent inflation indicate that the rate-cutting cycle will progress more gradually. Crédit Agricole estimates that interest rate projections for 2025 could be revised to 3.625% and for 2026 to 3.125%. These figures represent reductions of 0.75% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026, showing smaller decreases compared to earlier forecasts. According to the Financial Times, Israeli negotiators have met with mediators in Doha to discuss a ceasefire with Hamas and the release of hostages from Gaza. These talks are taking place ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration in January. Both Israeli and U.S. officials remain cautiously optimistic about reaching an agreement, though disagreements over key details persist. The Israeli negotiating team arrived in Qatar on Monday, focusing on resolving major points of contention. It is expected that both sides will respond to a recent mediator proposal, which includes a six-to-eight-week ceasefire and the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. These discussions have intensified following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections. Steven Witkoff, Trump’s envoy to the Middle East, has met with Benjamin Netanyahu and Qatar’s Prime Minister to advance the agreement. Despite progress, significant challenges remain, including disagreements over the number of hostages to be freed and the presence of Israeli forces in Gaza. While Hamas has softened its stance somewhat, substantial differences still exist. UBS, in its recent report, has projected that gold prices will reach $2,900 per ounce by the end of 2025. A key factor highlighted by UBS is the continued demand for gold from central banks, driven by the declining value of the dollar and diversification of reserves. UBS expects central bank gold purchases to remain strong throughout 2025, supporting elevated gold prices. Moreover, investor demand for gold as a hedge against geopolitical and policy uncertainties will play a significant role in maintaining high gold prices. UBS points to ongoing concerns about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle Eastern tensions, and uncertain fiscal and trade policies under the incoming administration of Donald Trump. These factors could boost investment in gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Lower interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar are additional factors that could drive gold prices higher. UBS predicts that interest rate cuts will continue and the dollar will weaken further, which will bolster demand for gold. In addition to gold, UBS has identified opportunities in copper and other transition metals. Global investments in power generation, energy storage, and electric transportation are expected to serve as long-term drivers of demand for these metals.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
Bearish drop off 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?WTI oil (XTI/USD) is rising towards the pivot which is an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support level which is also an overlap support. Pivot: 70.60 1st Support: 69.25 1st Resistance: 71.44 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDShort
by ICmarkets
Gold: Multi Tie FrameHello Traders In the weekly timeframe, an ascending channel is observed, showing a good reaction at its upper boundary. We are waiting for a price pullback to the next resistance level. In the daily chart, an ascending trendline has been broken, with two returns to the breakdown area around 2600.700, indicating the strength of sellers. The price returning to this area for the third time also shows the buyers' insistence. If the price can stabilize below 2532.800, the likelihood of further decline increases. Conversely, if the price cannot break through the green zone, we predict an upward movement to 2606.200. At the same time, we anticipate a slow downward trend and fluctuations to around 2568 in the coming days.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AliSignals
Bearish drop off pullbacksupport?WTI oil (XTI/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could srop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support. Pivot: 69.65 1st Support: 68.56 1st Resistance: 70.71 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDShort
by ICmarkets
GOLD recovered quite strongly, falling after FOMCOn the Asian market today (Thursday, December 19), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading recovered strongly after a sharp decline in the previous trading day. Gold price reached its highest level at the time of writing at 2,618 USD/ounce, an increase of nearly 30 USD during the day. The market will next receive US economic data, including final third-quarter GDP and weekly unemployment claims. Market attention will then turn to Friday's release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, which will boost the U.S.'s copper performance. US Dollar and gold in the short term. FOMC On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected and predicted less policy easing in 2025. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said the threshold for the next rate cut could be higher, which sent the US Dollar and US Treasury yields soaring, while at the same time, Gold fell more than 2% to a one-month low in trading on Wednesday. Federal Reserve officials cut interest rates for a third straight time on Wednesday, but lowered their forecast for the number of rate cuts next year, signaling they are increasingly cautious about being able to reduce spending. How quickly does the loan cost? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11-1 on Wednesday to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted against, in favor of keeping interest rates unchanged. In the FOMC policy statement, Fed officials noted that economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace. Labor market conditions have generally eased since the beginning of this year, with the unemployment rate rising but remaining low. Inflation has made progress toward the committee's 2% target but remains high. The new Dotplot chart shows some officials expect fewer interest rate cuts next year than they estimated just a few months ago. Fed officials currently expect the benchmark interest rate to be between 3.75% - 4% by the end of 2025, which, according to the median estimate, would mean two rate cuts of 25 points each. basic. Jerome Powell The Fed will cut interest rates only twice next year amid rising inflation, according to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, a forecast consistent with Trump's wait-and-see approach when he returned to the White House in January. Powell said Fed policymakers want to see more progress in reducing inflation when considering future rate-cutting strategies. US federal funds rate futures have reflected that the Federal Reserve will leave its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged at its policy meeting on January 28-29 next year. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Thus, gold has enough conditions to decrease in price after falling below the 0.618% Fibonacci level and bringing price activity back below the EMA21 moving average, with a sudden impact from fundamental factors. In the short term, although gold recovered from the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,591, which was the bearish target noted by previous readers, it could still continue to decline further with a target around $2,538. . When the Relative Strength Index dropped below the 50 mark and was quite far from the oversold area, it showed that there is still plenty of room for price decline ahead. During the day, gold price increases as long as they do not surpass the 0.618% Fibonacci level and EMA21 should only be considered short-term recovery. Along with that, the downward trend in gold prices will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 2,591 – 2,552 – 2,538USD Resistance: 2,624 – 2,634USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2635 - 2633⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2639 →Take Profit 1 2628 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2623 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2549 - 2551⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2546 →Take Profit 1 2556 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2561
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Silver H4 | Rising into pullback resistanceSilver (XAG/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 29.79 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 30.90 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance. Take profit is at 28.86 which is an overlap support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:XAGUSDShort
by FXCM
2
WTI Oil H1 | Overlap resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 70.46 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 71.50 which is a level that sits above a multi-swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 69.19 which is a multi-swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILShort
by FXCM
TBT- Look Out for Exploding RatesThe Federal Reserve's aggressive 50 basis point rate cut despite headline inflation numbers coming in mixed resulted in an immediate reaction from the longer term bond yields. With no hope of moderating national debt numbers, no matter which party prevails next month, the consensus seems to be much higher long term rates. Accelerating oil prices and nervousness over the Middle East concerns may seal the deal. With the US Strategic Oil Reserves drained over recent years, a supply shock could boost oil prices dramatically. Higher rates may also push gold and silver prices down temporarily, such moves would be an opportunity to further accumulate as dollar destruction is inevitable. While the administration hypes lower inflation numbers, moves in base metal stocks in addition to rising longer term interest rates certainly tell a much different story.
AMEX:TBTLong
by AssetDesign
Gold Futures Breakdown: Bearish Momentum ConfirmedGold Futures on the 30-minute chart have confirmed a strong bearish trend after breaking below key support levels. The price failed to hold near the Zone Identifier levels (2,655.9) and experienced a sharp decline following two consecutive sell signals. The breakdown below the moving average further strengthens the bearish outlook. Traders could look for short opportunities on pullbacks, targeting the next support zone near 2,600 while managing risk with stops above 2,660. This setup highlights significant selling momentum and a potential continuation of the downtrend.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by TradeTrendsPro