MASSIVE IMPACT ON GOLD OVER KEY FUNDAMENTALS**Gold (XAUUSD) Market Analysis – Key Fundamentals Driving Volatility**
Gold (XAUUSD) has experienced significant volatility due to major fundamental events impacting the financial markets. The recent large-scale liquidations in stocks and cryptocurrencies, along with the Bybit exchange hack, have contributed to heightened risk sentiment. Additionally, the ongoing US tariff disputes with Canada, Europe, and China have created further uncertainty, weighing on global economic stability.
Following a sharp decline, gold saw a strong recovery after the release of weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data, which raised concerns about the strength of the US economy. On the daily timeframe, a noticeable **market structure shift** has taken place. Price action has filled Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) and tapped into an Order Block (OB), leading to a correction and potential imbalance in the market.
At present, we anticipate a move to the downside, provided key fundamentals align with expectations. The primary factors to monitor include Ukraine’s agreement to a ceasefire, the upcoming **US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data**, and the impact of **US-Canada trade tariffs**. If these events unfold as expected, we may see gold decline toward the established support zones at **$2830 and $2780**.
However, a bullish breakout above the highlighted **4-hour Order Block (OB) in the $2925-$2945 region** would invalidate this bearish outlook. In such a case, gold could push higher, breaking the current market structure.
### **Fundamental Impact on Gold and the Economy:**
1. **Stock & Crypto Liquidations** – Risk-off sentiment has supported gold’s recovery but added volatility.
2. **Bybit Hack** – Raises concerns about crypto security, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold.
3. **US Tariffs (Canada, Europe, China)** – Trade tensions create uncertainty, impacting the US dollar and global demand.
4. **Ukraine Ceasefire** – A reduction in geopolitical risks may weaken gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
5. **US CPI Data** – Inflation data will shape Federal Reserve policy, directly influencing gold prices.
### **Conclusion:**
Gold remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic and geopolitical events. A **sustained rejection** below the $2925-$2945 region supports further downside, targeting $2830-$2780. However, any breach above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum, leading to higher price levels. Traders should closely monitor fundamental developments before confirming a directional bias.
Commodities
Gold 1H Intra-Day Chart 12.03.2025Gold dropped lower towards $2,882 which I said would happen & has now flown up towards our $2,913 TP! What's next?
Option 1: Gold DROPS lower from here towards $2,865.
Option 2: Gold keeps pushing higher towards a new ATH of $2,964.
Which option do you agree with more?
Silver H1 | Potential bullish bounceSilver(XAG/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 32.55 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 32.20 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 33.18 which is a level that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
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GOLD recovers and stays above $2,900, pay attention to CPI dataOANDA:XAUUSD rebounded, driven mainly by safe-haven flows as trade war concerns dampened market risk sentiment and markets focused on US inflation data.
TVC:DXY hit a four-month low, making gold more attractive. Meanwhile, the main event of the week is the US CPI report today (March 12), which could cause major market moves. Positive data could lead to a sharp sell-off in gold, while weak data could give the green light for further gains in gold.
CPI is expected to have risen 0.3% in February, according to a Reuters poll. The New York Federal Reserve's latest consumer expectations survey forecasts inflation at 3.1% over the next year, up slightly from 3% in January. Markets are now expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, in terms of trend, gold is still in the accumulation phase after recovering from the $2,880 level noted by readers in the previous editions and the break above the $2,900 level provides conditions for further testing of the $2,929 level in the short term.
For now, gold is still trading around the EMA21 and is still in a consolidation state, but in terms of technical conditions, it is more likely to increase in price. With the price channel as a short-term trend, and the RSI activity above 50, quite far from the overbought zone, it shows that the bullish momentum is still ahead.
However, the technical chart still needs a strong impact to break the current accumulation structure. And during the day, the notable positions will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,900 - 2,880 USD
Resistance: 2,929 - 2,942 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2961 - 2959⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2965
→Take Profit 1 2953
↨
→Take Profit 2 2947
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2899 - 2901⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2895
→Take Profit 1 2907
↨
→Take Profit 2 2913
XAUUSD H1 | Bullish ContinuationBased on the H4 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 2897.78, a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit is set at 2913.70, a pullback resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 2877.93, below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au
Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Rounding Top Formation & Key Support📊 TVC:GOLD (XAU/USD) Market Update – Rounding Top Formation & Key Support Test
📉 Gold is currently forming a rounding top pattern, indicating potential weakness in momentum.
🔄 Current Scenario:
If the price returns to the green support zone, it could act as a strong support level.
Buyers may step in at this zone, leading to a potential bounce and renewed bullish momentum.
📌 Traders should watch for confirmation signals at the green zone to assess whether buyers regain control.
WHEAT Approaching Key Support - Will Price Rebound to 550$?PEPPERSTONE:WHEAT is approaching a key support level, an area where buyers have previously shown strong interest. The recent bearish movement suggests that price may soon be testing this level, potentially setting up for a rebound.
A bullish confirmation, such as a strong rejection pattern, bullish engulfing candles, or long lower wicks, would strengthen the case for a move higher. If buyers step in, the price could rally toward the 550$ target. However, a decisive breakdown below this support would invalidate the bullish scenario and could lead to further downside.
This is not financial advice but rather how I approach support/resistance zones. Remember, always wait for confirmation, like a rejection candle or volume spike before jumping in.
Best of luck , TrendDiva
Bearish drop?XAU/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 2,925.63
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 2,953.39
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 2,876.15
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
SILVER Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
SILVER is trading in an uptrend
And the price made a bullish
Breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 3266$ and the brekaout
Is confirmed so we are bullish
Biased and we will be expecting
A further bullish continuation
Buy!
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XAUUSD: Turning sideways short term but Channel Up intact.Gold remains on very balanced bullish levels on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.055, MACD = 27.200, ADX = 21.896) a direct outcome of its long term pattern, which is a Channel Up. With the late February high made near the top of the Channel Up and the 1D RSI on a decline ever since, this the the kind of behaviour that was previously had Gold consolidate before the next rally. You can scalp this range until the price gets near the 1D MA100 and place a more medium term buy (TP = 3,200).
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