XAUUSD Mission is done soldierI had a gold work a long time ago.
And this soldier called gold has completed his duty.
Commodities
Renewing daily new highs (ATH)...
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(GCL1! 1M chart)
GCL1! is renewing daily new highs (ATH).
It is not easy to analyze or trade these stocks.
Since it is supported and rising near the right Fibonacci ratio point of 1 (2828.6), there is a possibility that it will rise to the Fibonacci ratio range of 1.618 (3395.3) ~ 1.618 (3457.6).
However, since it is a state where it is not strange to fall at any time, you should think about a countermeasure for the fall when starting a transaction.
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(1D chart)
Most chart analysts explain the current chart analysis by substituting issues other than the chart.
If you get used to this method, you may find issues other than the chart first without looking at the chart and analyze the chart while being obsessed with your subjective thoughts.
If you do that, you may analyze the chart in the wrong direction because you will interpret the chart with your subjective thoughts instead of looking at the chart as it is, so you need to be careful.
When analyzing charts, you must first look at the chart and analyze it, and then look for issues other than the chart when you have time.
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In order to trade a stock that is renewing its ATH, you should check for support when it shows a downward trend and start.
However, since it is renewing its ATH, there is no support or resistance point to check for support.
To compensate for this, we use the 5EMA+StErr indicator and the Price Channel indicator.
Therefore, when the price falls and touches the 5EMA+StErr indicator or the Price Channel indicator, you can find the trading point depending on whether there is support.
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(30m chart)
You can trade when it breaks out of the section made up of the Price Channel indicator or the box section made up of the HA-High and HA-Low indicators.
Of course, trading is also possible within the box section.
At this time, you should be careful that the trend can change when it passes the MS-Signal indicator.
When you touch the 5EMA+StErr indicator on the 1D chart, you can check whether there is support and trade.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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WTI crude bulls eye $74Crude oil prices fell over 11% from the January high before support was found at the 200-day SMA and 50% retracement level on Friday. Trump's latest tariffs saw commodities rise on inflationary concerns, and that allowed WTI futures to post a daily gain of 1.6% - its best day since the January high.
The 1-hour chart shows an impulsive move with no immediate threat of a top forming, and it seems plausible that the market is now reaching for $74 as part of a counter trend move, near the monthly pivot point and weekly R2.
However, as Monday's trading volume was the lowest of the year, it shows a lack of bullish enthusiasm. So unless we see volumes rising alongside prices, I am to assume the current bounce is simply a correction against the drop from the January high.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
XAUUSD Analysis | Road to 3000 XAU/USD (Gold vs. U.S. Dollar) analysis highlights a structured bullish trend within an ascending channel, supported by key technical factors. The price is respecting a higher highs and higher lows (HH/HL) structure, confirming continued bullish momentum.
The Market Structure Flow suggests that price action is well-defined, with retracements aligning with support levels. Dynamic Support + EMA Trend Support, provided by the 50 EMA (purple) and 200 EMA (orange)**, have consistently acted as bounce zones, reinforcing the uptrend.
A Multiple Confluence Support Zone around $2,860 – $2,880 is a key area where several technical factors align, including trendline support, EMA support, and previous structure levels. This zone is critical for maintaining bullish momentum, and any breakdown below it could trigger a potential trend reversal.
The Dynamic Support & Resistance (S+R) line continues to guide price movement, acting as a flexible structure for trend validation.
The Full Quarter Completion Phase Pivot Zone represents a major decision point, likely aligned with **institutional order blocks or quarterly resistance. A successful breakout above this level could drive price toward $2,930 – $2,950, whereas a rejection could lead to a pullback to key support levels.
Future Price Expectations:
1. Bullish Continuation – If price holds above dynamic support and breaks the pivot zone, we could see further upside momentum.
2. Pullback & Retest – A rejection at resistance could lead to a pullback toward $2,880 – $2,860, offering potential buying opportunities.
3. Bearish Breakdown – A break below the multiple confluence support zone could invalidate the bullish structure and initiate a downside move toward $2,800 or lower.
Overall, the bullish trend remains strong unless key support levels break. Keeping an eye on volume, multiple confirmations, and support levels will be crucial for upcoming price action. 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSD VANTAGE:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Support around 73.25 is the key
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(CL1! 1D chart)
The point to watch is whether it can rise above 73.25-74.62.
Since the M-Signal indicator and MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicators on the 1W chart are passing around 73.25, it is expected to be the first resistance zone for the rise.
The M-Signal indicator of the 1M chart is passing around 74.62, so it is expected to be the second resistance zone.
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If it receives resistance and falls,
1st: 70.64-71.0
2nd: 68.18-68.94
You should check whether there is support near the 1st and 2nd above.
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(30m chart)
Resistance: M-Signal indicator of 1D, 1W chart
Support: 5EMA+StErr indicator of 1D chart (71.78)
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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WTI CRUDE OIL: Aiming at 82.00 long term.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.507, MACD = -0.150, ADX = 34.872) as only today it crossed above the 1D MA50, following a correction since Jan 15th. The prevailing pattern is a Channel Up and we are very close to its bottom. The two bullish waves it had already, peaked after at least a +20% rise. As the 1D RSI is already on the S1 Zone, we anticipate a new bullish wave to start gradually and aim at the top of the Channel Up (TP = 82.00).
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update - Watching Paint Dry...Today's market seems to be trapped in a "go nowhere" zone.
Get thread though. The markets will react to my Deep-V and Breakdown patterns with some aggression in the near future (24 to 48+ hours).
Buckle up.
This is going to get very interesting as the SPY attempts to move down to 585-590 - or lower.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Weekly price prediction: $71.49 (Min) and $77.37 (Max).Projected Price Range
The anticipated weekly price range for Brent Crude Oil is expected to fluctuate between $71.49 (Min) and $77.37 (Max).
Contended Price Levels
$74.50 – Point of Control (POC) – potential support
$73.22 - $71.49 – High Volume Node (HVN) – potential support
$77.32 - $81.62 – Low Volume Node (LVN) – potential resistance
Technical Analysis
Fibonacci Retracement & Price Movement:
The price reached the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level in mid-January before retracing.
This level has demonstrated consistent horizontal price movement over the past six months, indicating it as a key reference point.
Volume Profile Analysis:
High Volume Node (HVN): Found between $73.22 and $71.49, indicating strong liquidity and potential support.
Low Volume Node (LVN): Between $77.32 and $81.62, which could lead to rapid price spikes if the price enters this zone.
MACD and Stochastic RSI:
Stochastic RSI (Bottom Indicator): Has shown low bearish momentum over the last two weeks and appears poised for an upward crossover, signalling potential price growth.
MACD (Top Indicator): Remains in the negative region, with a few weeks left before a possible crossover, implying continued caution for bullish sentiment.
Additional Factors
Support & Resistance Considerations:
Point of Control (POC) and HVN are close to the current price, reinforcing these as key support zones.
The price is currently resting on a previous resistance level that has now turned into support.
The black rectangle above the price highlights the LVN region, where rapid price movements could occur.
The white rectangle represents a large support zone, which may contribute to horizontal price movement.
Geopolitical & Market Sentiment:
As always, geopolitical events could significantly impact price fluctuations, and traders should remain alert to any market-moving developments.
Conclusion
Brent Crude Oil prices for the upcoming week are likely to remain within the projected range, given the strong support levels in the current price zone. However, any breakout downward could be swift, while an upward breakout could be accelerated due to the LVN region.
Will gold remain bullish?
Hi Dear traders
I think gold will see new prices in the coming weeks.
What do you think?
The blue dashed lines are important support lines drawn in the figure. And the red line is a resistance line that determines the slope of the gold price increase.
Please support me with a like and comment if you liked my analysis and share this analysis with your other friends.
GOLD, Short, 1h✅ GOLD is pulling back to the 0.236 Fibonacci level, where a temporary decline is expected before continuing its movement. The price is also likely to reach the 21 EMA as part of this retracement.
SHORT 🔥
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OIL Short - Tariffs Might Pump The USDUSD goes up. Oil goes down. Oil is heavily longed, I expect a major flush down.
Reversal of US Energy Policy Could Push Crude Oil LowerNYMEX: Micro Crude Oil Futures ( NYMEX:MCL1! ) #Microfutures
On January 20th, President Donald Trump signed an executive order, “Declaring a National Energy Emergency”. This sets the tone of US energy policy for the next 4 years.
By declaring national emergency and raising energy independence to the highest level of national security, President Trump introduced sweeping measures to fast-track energy infrastructure and regulatory approvals.
In a 180-degree reversal, the new administration abandoned the Climate Change policies championed by the Biden presidency. Other executive orders saw the US quitting the Paris Climate Accord and cancelling pushes into renewable energy and electric vehicles.
This marks a major turning point in the price trend of crude oil. Since Mid-January, WTI prices have already retreated 11%, while Brent was lowered by 10%.
In my opinion, WTI futures could fall to the pre-Pandemic price range of $45-$64 a barrel, with a midpoint target at $55 in 2025. My logic follows:
US oil production will rise, benefiting from the new energy policy
As of 2023, the U.S. produced about 14.7% of the world's crude oil, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia. This makes the US the largest crude oil producer globally.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated the domestic oil production at 13.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024. It recently forecasted the US output to grow to 13.5 and 13.6 million b/d, in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
Considering the complete makeover of US energy policy, I think the next EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) would show measurable upticks in its production forecast.
Threats of Tariffs could curtail global oil demand
Last week, the US slapped a 25% tariff for Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff for China on top of those imposed during the 2018-19 trade conflict. While the tariffs for Canada and Mexico are on hold pending trade negotiation, China retaliated and announced new tariffs on US goods at rates ranging from 10% to 15%.
Rising global trade tensions would increase costs and raise the prices on store shelves. Declining sales would lead to production reduction. Eventually, a slowdown in economic activities will result in less demand for crude oil.
The January STEO report forecasts global oil consumption growth to be less than the pre-pandemic trend, at an increase of 1.3 million b/d in 2025 and 1.1 million b/d in 2026. With the impact of higher tariffs, I expect the next STEO to show further deterioration in its oil consumption forecast.
Lifting of oil embargo could release more supply to the global market
The new administration campaigned to end global military conflicts. In my opinion, a US brokered peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine is on the horizon. Iran and the US could resume talks soon. Both scenarios could see the existing oil embargo being lifted.
In 2024, Russia is the 3rd largest oil producer with 10.75 million barrels a day, while Iran ranks 7th with 4.08 million. Together, they contributed to over 18% of global oil output.
Market trades on expectation. Oil prices would respond quickly with the emergence of any planned negotiation.
OPEC+ to increase crude oil production
The STEO forecasts the OPEC+ to relax production cuts. Following an annual decline of 1.3 million b/d in 2024, it expects growth of 0.2 million b/d in 2025 and a further increase of 0.6 million b/d in 2026 from OPEC+ producers as voluntary production cuts unwind.
Additionally, STEO expects further production growth from countries outside of OPEC+, including the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana.
Commitment of Traders shows bearish sentiment
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on February 4th, total Open Interest (OI) for NYMEX WTI Futures is 1,765,342 contracts. “Managed Money” (i.e., hedge funds) own 204,272 in Long, 60,136 in Short and 393,098 in Spreading.
• While they maintain a long-short ratio of 3.4:1, hedge funds have reduced long positions by 36,310 (-15%) while increasing short positions by 11,085 (+16%).
• This indicates that “Smart Money” is becoming less bullish on oil.
Crude oil prices typically rise on the back of geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and economic growth. We are likely to witness the retracing on all these fronts.
Another reason for the rising prices in most financial assets has been the abundance of liquidity, leading by the $2-trillion-a-year US deficit spending. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) made significant headways into cutting government expenditures. This could help remove some of the premiums on asset prices.
Trade Setup with Micro WTI Futures
If a trader shares a similar view, he could express his opinion by shorting the NYMEX Micro WTI Futures ( GETTEX:MCL ).
MCL contracts have a notional value of 100 barrels of crude oil. With Friday settlement price of $71.0, each March contract (MCLH5) has a notional value of $7,100. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $586.
NYMEX crude oil futures are among the most liquid commodity contracts in the world. On Friday, standard WTI futures ( NYSE:CL , 1000 barrels) has a trade volume of 784,820 contracts and an OI of 1,796,265. Micro WTI has a trade volume of 54,038 and OI of 19,178. The Micro contracts allow traders to tap into the deep liquidity of NYMEX WTI market, while requiring only 1/10th of the initial margin.
Hypothetically, a trader shorts March MCL contract and WTI prices pull back to our upper price range of $64. A short futures position would gain $700 (= (71 - 64) x $100). Using the initial margin as a cost base, a theoretical return would be +119.5% (= 700 / 586).
The risk of shorting crude oil futures is rising oil prices. Investors could lose part of or all their initial margin. A trader could set a stop loss while establishing his short position. In the above example, the trader could set stop loss at $75 when entering the short order at $71. If crude oil continues to rise, the maximum loss would be $400 ( = (75-71) *100).
To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site:
www.cmegroup.com
The Leap trading competition, #TheFuturesLeap, sponsored by CME Group, is currently running at TradingView. I encourage you to join The Leap to sharpen your trading skills and put your trading strategies at test, competing with your peers in this paper trading challenge sponsored by CME Group.
www.tradingview.com
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Feb 10 - Feb 14]This week, rising Treasury yields and the threat of a global trade war are contributing to a stagflation environment, causing investors to rush into gold, and spot gold prices at one point climbed as high as $2,886/oz.
US President Donald Trump has launched trade war 2.0 with the imposition of strong tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China. The 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico were postponed for a month, but the 10% tariffs on China took effect. China responded with 10-15% tariffs on US energy and agricultural products, effective from February 10, 2025. Trade war 2.0 expands in scope compared to 2018, includes many major trading partners and takes place in parallel with the US-China technology war. Countries with large trade surpluses with the US face the risk of becoming new tariff targets.
If negotiations between the US and its partners fail to reach an agreement, retaliation could escalate, disrupting global trade, weakening economic growth and creating inflationary pressures, leading to stagflation, thereby boosting gold prices. On the contrary, if the Trump administration "cools down" the trade war by reaching an agreement after imposing tariffs, gold prices may decrease due to weakening shelter demand.
Some economic data affecting gold prices next week:
Tuesday: US Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee.
Wednesday: US consumer price index (CPI), FED Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee.
Thursday: US producer price index (PPI), US weekly unemployment benefit applications.
Friday: US retail sales
📌Technically, gold prices still maintain an upward trend in the medium and long term. However, downward corrections can occur at any time considering shorter time frames such as H4, D1.
On the H4 chart, the price can adjust to around the hard resistance level which is also the dynamic resistance level around 2790 before entering an upward trend again.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,844 – 2,834USD
Resistance: 2,869 – 2,886 – 2,891USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2911 - 2909⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2915
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2789 - 2791⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2785
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
A super PIPTASTIC start to the week!! Our chart idea is playing gout perfectly with cross an lock confirmations giving us plenty of time to get in for the action.
We started with our Bullish target 2872 hit followed with ema5 cross and lock opening 2885 and 2898, which was hit perfectly. We then had ema5 lock open above 2898 opening 2911 and if momentum allowed 2923. We got the 2911 for the perfect finish on the nose at 2911 with exhaustion of momentum and therefore no 2923.
A further candle body or ema5 lock above 2911 will further confirm the final run at 2923 on this chart. If 2898 AND 2885 Goldturns provide support now, we may get the momentum for the 2923 test sooner rather then later.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2872 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2872 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2885 - DONE
2898 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2898 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2911 - DONE
2923
BEARISH TARGETS
2851
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2851 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE
2836 - 2819
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2819 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2807 - 2794
SECONDARY SWING RANGE
2782 - 2764
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
$NNE longNNE is in a channel right now, but basic support has formed, with a sucessful bounce. Besides the TA, the company in general has quite a bit to offer.
Gold trend analysis and top and bottom signal sharingGold has risen for the seventh consecutive week. The RSI indicator is at a high level close to 80. The price is at the upper track of the Bollinger Band and exceeds the line. The price deviates from the MA10 daily moving average. Once the weekly RSI indicator forms an overbought or top divergence, and considering that the 7-week rise has reached a critical time window, we need to be careful of short-term peaks!
From a technical perspective, the short-term trend structure of the daily chart remains intact, but the price indicator has reached the end. We need to pay further attention to the subsequent policy impact of Trump's new policy. Once the top divergence is established, it will usher in a short-term wide-range downward shock and trend reversal!
The bullish upside space exceeds 330 $, and we need to start considering the bulls entering the end. At present, the transaction is still in the trend of participating in the short-term transaction of buying at a low price. The key resistance or historical high pays attention to the mid-term short opportunity of the band!
The gold market came a little late last Friday night. NFP bottomed out and rebounded directly to break through the new high, breaking the shock pattern! Gold hits a new high in the short term, and the bullish energy is very strong. The first wave of piercing is just a test, and there may be another pull-up and breakthrough in the future!
Gold fell after the short-term piercing, but the current gold price has begun to weaken its downward energy near 2855, and this intraday trend also shows that there is a strong support effect at the 2850 line. In the short term, gold is supported by 2850 and has not fallen below the NFP market low of 2852. It is easy to bottom out and pull up again, so the later short-term layout should first refer to the purchase above 2850!
Key points:
First support: 2853, second support: 2845, third support: 2830
First resistance: 2878, second resistance: 2888, third resistance: 2906
Operation ideas:
BUY: 2855-2858, SL: 2847, TP: 2870-2880;
SELL: 2890-2893, SL: 2902, TP: 2870-2860;
