XAU/USD : Time For Some Correction ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that the price continues to rise due to escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as Hezbollah and Israel. The price has been extending its rally since yesterday and is currently trading around $2665. In my opinion, after such a significant rally, we can start expecting a minor correction in the price.
Be cautious, as gold's movements have been extremely volatile and risky these days. If you lack sufficient experience, you might end up losing your capital. Reduce your risk to a minimum, avoid trading through Market Execution, and preferably identify key levels in advance. Enter trades only when the price reaches those levels and triggers a suitable setup.
The key supply levels are $2670-$2673, $2682-$2699, $2704-$2711, and the key demand levels are $2654, $2642, $2636, $2616, $2610, $2567. (This analysis will be updated.)
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Commodities
XAGUSD Bearish as long as it trades below the 1D MA50.Silver (XAGUSD) is on a strong correction since the October 23 2024 High, which was a Higher High on the 2-year Channel Up. This is technically the new Bearish Leg. The previous one (started on the May 05 2023 High), initially targeted the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
That was of course after a first Lower Low rebound to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) where it was rejected (June 09 2023). It appears that technically the price is on a similar situation, so as long as the 1D MA50 closes candles below it, the short-term trend is bearish. Our Target is 29.500 (just above the 0.382 Fib upon expected contact with the 1D MA200).
Notice also that the 1W MACD is past a new Bearish Cross, a pattern similar to the May 24 2023 Bearish Cross, which confirms the Bearish Leg.
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XAUUSD Detailed Analysis on D1 Time Frame | 22/November/2024XAUUSD Detailed Analysis on D1 Time Frame | 22/November/2024
t.me
For more intra and swing trades you guys can join our Telegram Channel
-This video is based on Educational Purposes
- market touched the region that what we are selected and we are confident on that point
- Current point 2707 and more to more market have to be create a lowest lowest which would be the 2460 area so this trade is based on those who have patience level 100%
- Market will Expected a big dead fall down
- our target would be to catched more then 1000 Pips from that trade
-Lets enjoy the postions with us !!
GOLD | XAU vs BTC: Threat of Nuclear WarI'm opening my 10th position and here's my analysis: Have you seen how fast this big guy moves? Let’s discuss two scenarios and three assets.
Here’s the 1st scenario:
XAU, like BTC, is on steroids. The steroid is called "Global Nuclear War Threat." Countries in the 2nd and 3rd worlds, having easy access to BTC, use it as a safe haven. Meanwhile, 1st-world countries understand that their gold reserves might save them if something goes really wrong.
And what could go wrong? Russia could get angry, rally its close friends from BRICS, and they might all declare, "Enough of using these green papers." The U.S. economy—or at least its currency—could collapse, and what will save the day? Orange rock reserves.
Someone else might ask, "Wait, then why is the DXY rising?" That’s an even stronger sign of escalating tensions. Everyone is preparing for war, arms trading is increasing, and transactions are still happening with green papers. By the way, DXY is in Bullish Flag right now, so yes, it'll probably keep going up.
So, DXY rises, XAU rises, and BTC rises? Exactly.
DXY: Getting some extra cash because of the war.
XAU: Your safety net if things go... Armageddonish.
BTC: The backup plan when gold's out of reach + to make some money before everyone is dead.
Now, here’s the 2nd scenario:
Everything I said above is complete nonsense. And it’s all just market manipulation to gather the stop losses of those who think along these lines.
It’s important to understand that even if everything sounds logical and reasonable, we can’t be entirely certain about any scenario in such a really volatile situation.
But on the other hand, we should ask ourselves: is it really that unlikely for gold to reach $2,700? I don’t think it’s far-fetched, and opening a position with a maximally safe strategy shouldn’t lead to much pain. Even if it drops 100-500 pips, we’ll get back to 2700 sooner or later, right? I’m not even joking here, so keep that in mind too.
Listen, at this point, it’s safe to admit this is a pure race and competition between BTC and XAU: $100,000 vs. $2,700. Which one will get there first? Honestly, it doesn’t matter in my opinion—they’ll both hit those targets in the coming days.
I’m opening my 10th position, and it’ll be long:
Opening: 2680
Take Profit: 2700
Stop Loss: 2610
As I always say, never use your entire deposit, and never set your stop loss too close.
Now, let’s watch and see! I hope you all safe! ☕️
Gold: Structure change ... The focus is the speech of the FedHello, dear friends, Ben here
Gold prices are surging strongly after breaking through the resistance channel at 2650, as investors turn to this safe haven amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty due to escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions.
It’s evident that geopolitical tensions have heightened interest in safe havens, including the yellow metal. However, this inverse correlation has resurfaced in recent weeks, and the strength of the dollar is likely to hinder gold's momentum moving forward.
All eyes are on several Fed officials scheduled to deliver speeches this week. Market expectations for a December rate cut have dropped significantly, with current odds at 55.7%, down from 82.5% just a week ago.
From a technical perspective, gold has confirmed a trend and shifted sentiment, giving us a major movement to follow in shaping our trading decisions. A false breakout around the local resistance level at 2643 is forming. Price consolidation above this area could trigger further bullish momentum. However, I haven’t ruled out the possibility of a fake move around 2622 to accumulate before a stronger rally.
What are your thoughts on this?
Bullish rise off pullback support?The Silver (XAG/USD) has reacted off the pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could rise to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 30.67
1st Support: 29.71
1st Resistance: 32.02
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Potential bearish reversal?The Gold (XAU?USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 2,712.05
1st Support: 2,656.74
1st Resistance: 2,758.37
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GOLD: Correction Likely After Impulse RallyThe 4-hour XAU/USD chart shows a completed Elliott Wave (1-5) structure, with wave (5) reaching the $2,655-$2,660 resistance zone, indicating a potential reversal. A corrective ABC pattern is expected:
Wave A: Targeting $2,620-$2,630 (middle support zone).
Wave B: Minor retracement below $2,655.
Wave C: Extending to $2,600-$2,610 (lower support).
As gold prices are highly sensitive to macroeconomic events, traders should use proper position sizing and stop-loss levels to mitigate risks. Keep an eye on upcoming economic releases and geopolitical tensions that might affect market volatility.
Good luck
The geopolitical situation is hotter in many placesIn early trading on Asian markets on Thursday (November 21), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery suddenly increased rapidly in the short term and gold prices are currently approaching the 2,660 USD/ounce mark, threatening the trend from the price channel.
Growing concerns about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, along with growing uncertainty in global markets, have supported gold's strong recovery this week.
On Wednesday, as tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated, leading to increased geopolitical unrest, investors sought the safety of gold, seen as a hedge against the risks of conflict instability.
In response to Ukraine's first long-range missile attack on Russian territory, Russian President Vladimir Putin revised the nuclear weapons guidelines to lower the threshold for nuclear retaliation in response to an attack. series of conventional attacks, leading to increased geopolitical tensions.
In addition to the situation between Russia and Ukraine, the tense situation in the Middle East is also a factor supporting gold prices.
According to the official website of the United Nations and CNN, on November 20 local time, the United Nations Security Council voted on a ceasefire resolution in Gaza proposed by 10 non-permanent members.
The resolution was not passed due to the United States' veto. The remaining 14 countries in the Security Council voted in favor.
The resolution "demands that all parties immediately, unconditionally and permanently cease fire and reiterates their demand for the immediate and unconditional release of all detainees."
In addition, the resolution further emphasizes the role of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) as the backbone of humanitarian relief operations in Gaza.
Additional information, on November 20 local time, the Israeli army attacked a house in the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood, north of Gaza City, killing 66 people and injuring dozens of others.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold is currently operating in a very important position for an uptrend from the price channel with price activity attempting to move above the upper edge of the price channel.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is also sitting right in the middle of the 50 level, if it breaks above this level it will be a bullish signal.
Looking ahead, technically gold is still below resistance levels, from the price channel to EMA21 and the Relative Strength Index. So, it is not yet eligible for a bullish cycle. As long as gold remains below EMA21, it is not yet technically in a bullish position.
During the day, with the current operating position, gold is still in an upward trend and notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,640USD
Resistance: 2,668 – 2,684USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2676 - 2674⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2680
→Take Profit 1 2669
↨
→Take Profit 2 2664
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2595
→Take Profit 1 2606
↨
→Take Profit 2 2611
GOLD is headed for a 5th day of increaseOANDA:XAUUSD rose for a fourth straight day and is headed for a fifth day of gains on Friday (November 22) as safe-haven demand picks up while traders assess the prospect of further policy easing by the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve and increasingly escalating geopolitical risks.
Gold prices recovered above $2,680 and were on track for their best weekly performance since April as the war between Russia and Ukraine escalated.
Ukraine says Russia has launched a "new" ballistic missile toward the city of Dnipro, sending a worrying signal to Western supporters of Kiev. Escalating geopolitical tensions often push investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.
When the United States vetoed the United Nations ceasefire resolution in Gaza, relations between Russia and Ukraine became tense again, ensuring gold's long-term appeal.
Investors have flocked to safe-haven assets during the global crisis and gold prices have hit multiple record highs since conflict in the Middle East erupted last October.
Since the beginning of this year, gold prices have risen nearly 30%, supported by solid central bank gold purchases, growing safe-haven demand and a cycle of interest rate cuts by the Reserve Federal.
Although the recovery of the US Dollar put pressure on gold prices, safe-haven demand helped gold prices offset this pressure. A stronger US Dollar often makes goods priced in Dollars more expensive and less attractive.
Spot gold prices rose 4% this week, their best gain since April, recovering from their biggest weekly drop in more than three years last week. Gold's decline was fueled by a rise in the US Dollar fueled by Trump's victory in the race for the White House.
Investors are also focusing on several Fed officials expected to speak this week. Market expectations for a December rate cut have weakened significantly, with the probability now at 59.4%, much lower than 82.5% a week ago.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold broke out of the downtrend from the price channel and initially achieved the conditions for a new bullish cycle to be formed with a move above the EMA21 level.
In addition, the Relative Strength Index is also pointing up to surpass 50, which is considered a signal for price increases in the near future.
In the immediate future, gold will need to test and surpass the original price level of 2,700 USD. Normally, the original price levels are considered resistance or support depending on price position conditions. If gold surpasses 2,700 USD and maintains stability above the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, it will be able to continue to increase by more than 30 Dollars to reach the 0.236% Fibonacci level.
Currently, gold has the conditions for a bullish cycle, so technically, combined with the escalating geopolitical risk of market shock, the trend of gold is leaning more towards the possibility of price increases.
Notable technical points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,684 - 2,668USD
Resistance: 2,697 - 2,700 - 2,732USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2711 - 2709⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2715
→Take Profit 1 2704
↨
→Take Profit 2 2699
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2639 - 2641⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2635
→Take Profit 1 2646
↨
→Take Profit 2 2651
Gold Rally Nears Key ResistanceSpot gold rose by $21.1 to $2,669.5/ounce, while gold futures climbed $23.5 to $2,672.5/ounce. This marks the fourth consecutive session of gains, reaching its highest level in over a week, driven by strong safe-haven demand.
Key drivers include Nvidia's gloomy revenue forecast, escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and the U.S. veto of a UN Security Council resolution on a ceasefire in Gaza. These factors have shifted investor interest towards gold as a safe-haven asset amidst growing uncertainties.
Notably, gold prices have surged by 4% this week, the best weekly performance since April, rebounding from the sharpest drop in three years. Personally, I believe the next target is breaking the $2,700/ounce resistance level, potentially paving the way for further gains.
What about you? Do you think gold will conquer this critical milestone?
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WTI - oil on fire!WTI oil is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is moving in its downward channel. If the upward trend continues and the ceiling of the channel is broken, one can first look for positions to buy it and then look for positions to sell oil in the supply zone.
A downward correction towards the demand zones will provide us with the next positions to buy oil with the appropriate risk reward.
Oil prices climbed as tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated. Following Ukraine’s announcement that Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile targeting the central city of Dnipro, Brent crude rose to $74 per barrel. Previously, Ukraine had primarily relied on long-range weaponry supplied by Western nations. If confirmed, this missile strike would mark the first use of such a weapon since its development during the Cold War era.
In recent days, additional bullish signals for oil prices have emerged. Refinery product premiums relative to crude oil have reached multi-month highs.
In the United States, as fuel producers along the coasts ramped up production to meet rising export demand, profit margins for converting crude oil into gasoline and diesel hit record levels.
According to Reuters, OPEC+ is likely to maintain significant oil production cuts for an extended period due to weak global demand. Analysts and insiders suggest that the OPEC+ meeting in December will face major constraints in determining production policy. While increasing production amid weak demand could be risky, further cuts may prove challenging as some members push to raise output. OPEC+, which includes Russia and produces nearly half of the world’s oil, has repeatedly delayed its gradual production increase plans this year.
Meanwhile, rising gas prices are creating tough challenges for European policymakers as they brace for a harsh winter. Javier Blas, a Bloomberg columnist, argues that Europe has yet to fully grasp the energy crisis stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He asserts that the continent has mistaken recent strategic successes for mere weather-related luck, but the situation has now deteriorated. This points to another winter of high gas and electricity prices, placing significant pressure on energy-intensive industries. Many large-scale manufacturers have announced plant closures and asset write-downs, while households face surging retail energy prices. This inflationary trend will add further complications for the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Wholesale gas prices in Europe have risen to €47 per megawatt-hour, twice the February lows and 130% above the 2010-2020 average.
Wall Street has raised concerns that a second Trump presidency could negatively impact oil prices, arguing that producers might ramp up drilling and production before facing Biden-era regulatory pressures. However, another faction in Wall Street suggests this narrative is incomplete. Standard Chartered points out that the nature of U.S. shale oil production makes it difficult to sustain long-term supply increases. Unlike OPEC producers, whose output is often controlled by state-owned oil companies, U.S. production is dominated by several large corporations, independent producers, and private firms.
This perspective aligns with Goldman Sachs’ analysis. In July, Goldman Sachs predicted that U.S. crude oil production would grow by 500,000 barrels per day this year, a slower pace compared to last year’s 1 million barrels per day increase. Nevertheless, the U.S. will account for 60% of non-OPEC supply growth, with the Permian Basin expected to grow by 340,000 barrels per day annually—lower than the initial forecast of 520,000 barrels per day made by Wall Street analysts.