Gold: How much higher will XAU go?Gold continues to find support amid haven flows as equities tumble on trade war concerns.
But how much further can gold rise?
Well I think a lot of people had $3K+ pencilled in as their target. We are obviously well above the $3K level now at $3085, which may trigger some profit taking.
While dip buyers are lurking, a rug pull is becoming increasingly likely at these levels in my view. When risk appetite turns sour and stocks start falling, people tend to liquidate their profitable long gold positions to free up margin. Could we see something similar?
For me, the short term trigger could be a potential break below recent low and support around $3057-$3066, while in the slightly longer term view, a potential move below $3,000 is needed to trigger a more meaningful drop.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Commodities
Gold short-term market analysisTechnically, the gold daily chart remains strong and hits a new record high to close. The price continues to run above MA10 and 5 days. The daily moving average keeps opening upward, and the bulls usher in a second large-scale rise.
The short-term four-hour chart Bollinger band opens upward, the price runs along the upper track of the Bollinger band, the MA10/7-day moving average keeps opening upward, the hourly chart remains consistent, the price is running in the middle and upper track of the Bollinger band, and the moving average opens upward. Yesterday's 3017 low rose to the current 3075, and it was another unilateral bullish surge of 60 US dollars. Today's trading ideas continue to maintain low-multiple participation during the day, and pay attention to the historical high selling participation opportunities during the European and American trading hours.
Stimulated by risk aversion, gold has been rising all the way, strongly pulling bulls back, and then gold adjusted, but the previous box was shaken and broken. Last night, gold fell back and still got support on the upper edge of the box. Bulls once again made efforts to attack, and prices continued to sprint to new highs. After the daily cycle was corrected for five trading days, bulls launched another fierce attack. Since gold has chosen to break upward in the shock, it is still necessary to follow the trend and go long.
The reason for the intraday gold breakout and shock upward is risk aversion and technical breakthrough. The 1-hour moving average of gold has now begun to cross upward bullish divergence. After gold fell back in the US market to confirm the support of 3033, the bulls continued to exert their strength. So gold can continue to buy on dips above 3033 today. If it falls below 3033, the short-term bullish strength of gold may be suppressed, and then gold is likely to start to fluctuate again. .
Key points:
First support: 3055, second support: 3048, third support: 3040
First resistance: 3077, second resistance: 3086, third resistance: 3097
Operation ideas:
Buy: 3048-3051, SL: 3039, TP: 3080-3090;
Sell: 3085-3088, SL: 3097, TP: 3060-3050;
GOLD: Long Trade Explained
GOLD
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects growth
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy GOLD
Entry Level - 3081.3
Sl - 3073.9
Tp - 3096.4
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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XAUUSD Breakout Trade – Target Hit!In this trade, we identified a downtrend breakout on Gold (XAU/USD) using the 1-hour chart. A descending trendline was broken, signaling a shift in momentum. After price retested a key support zone around $3,023.75, buyers stepped in, confirming the breakout.
A long position was taken with a stop loss below the recent lows, ensuring a safe risk-to-reward ratio. The trade played out beautifully, with strong bullish momentum pushing the price towards our take profit (TP) level at $3,057.37.
This setup highlights the power of trendline breaks and retests, offering high-probability entries for traders. With gold showing strength, we’ll watch for further bullish continuation or potential pullbacks for new opportunities.
📊 Key Takeaways:
✔ Trendline breakout confirmed by retest
✔ Strong bullish momentum
✔ TP hit successfully for solid profits
#Gold #XAUUSD #ForexTrading #BreakoutStrategy #TradingSuccess
XAU/USD: Pullback Likely After Breakout Above Key ResistanceThe XAU/USD market has broken above last week’s high and is now testing the 3080 resistance level. Following this strong move, a pullback appears likely before any further advance. With bullish momentum still dominant, the market may continue higher or enter a sideways phase into next week.
If a pullback occurs, the previous resistance zone, now acting as support, could offer a buying opportunity—particularly near the 3050 level. With high-impact news on the horizon, the market may either range or retrace before resuming its upward trend. The next key target is the resistance zone around 3085
GOLD Will Go Up From Support! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 3h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 3,076.15.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 3,102.53 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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Gold (XAU/USD) – Triangle Breakout & Bullish Trade Setup Overview
This 1-hour Gold Spot (XAU/USD) chart showcases a well-defined symmetrical triangle pattern, which has successfully broken out to the upside. This breakout indicates strong bullish momentum, setting up a potential rally towards $3,107 and beyond.
The analysis below will cover:
✅ Triangle Pattern Formation & Breakout Explanation
✅ Key Technical Levels (Support, Resistance, ATH)
✅ Entry, Stop Loss, & Take Profit Strategies
✅ Risk Management Considerations
✅ Final Trade Setup & Market Sentiment
Let’s dive into the details.
1️⃣ Chart Pattern: Symmetrical Triangle Formation
What is a Symmetrical Triangle?
A symmetrical triangle is a common continuation pattern in technical analysis that forms when price consolidates within two converging trendlines. This structure indicates a period of indecision in the market before a potential breakout occurs.
When price breaks above the upper trendline, it signals a bullish continuation.
If price breaks below the lower trendline, it suggests a bearish move.
In this case, gold has broken above the upper resistance trendline, signaling a continuation of the existing uptrend.
Pattern Breakdown (Step by Step):
Triangle Formation: The price made higher lows and lower highs, compressing within the pattern.
Price Squeeze: As the market approached the apex of the triangle, volatility decreased, indicating an imminent breakout.
Breakout Confirmation: A strong bullish candle closed above the resistance trendline, validating the pattern and confirming bullish momentum.
2️⃣ Key Technical Levels & Zones
🔹 Support & Resistance Zones:
Support Level: $3,012 - $3,020 (Highlighted as a strong demand zone where buyers stepped in).
Resistance Level: $3,080 (Previously acted as strong resistance but has now turned into support post-breakout).
All-Time High (ATH): Marked just below $3,090, where price previously struggled to break through.
🔸 Breakout Target & Price Projection
Breakout Level: The breakout happened above $3,080, confirming an uptrend continuation.
Target Calculation:
The height of the triangle is projected upwards from the breakout point.
This gives us a price target of $3,107 - $3,120 in the short term.
3️⃣ Trading Strategy Based on Breakout
✅ Entry Strategy:
Aggressive Entry: Entering immediately after the breakout candle closes above $3,080, riding the momentum.
Conservative Entry: Waiting for a potential pullback to $3,080 (now acting as support) before entering a long position.
⛔ Stop Loss Placement:
Ideal Stop Loss: Below the previous support zone at $3,012, ensuring protection against fake breakouts.
Tighter Stop Loss: Just below the breakout point at $3,065, in case of a minor retracement before moving higher.
🎯 Profit Target Strategy:
Short-Term Target: $3,107, based on the triangle’s measured move.
Extended Target: If momentum sustains, $3,120+ could be achieved, aligning with previous bullish trends.
4️⃣ Risk Management & Market Considerations
Risk Factors to Monitor:
🔸 Volume Confirmation: A breakout with high trading volume is a stronger signal than one with low volume.
🔸 Market Fundamentals: Events like US inflation data, Federal Reserve rate decisions, and geopolitical tensions can impact gold prices.
🔸 False Breakout Risk: If price falls back below $3,080, the breakout might be invalid, signaling a potential reversal.
Risk-Reward Ratio:
📌 Entry: $3,080
📌 Stop Loss: $3,012 (Approx. 68 points risk)
📌 Target: $3,107 - $3,120 (Approx. 27-40 points reward)
📌 Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 2:1+, making this a favorable trade setup.
5️⃣ Market Sentiment & Final Trade Setup
📈 Bullish Outlook:
The successful breakout above the symmetrical triangle signals continued bullish strength.
Price is holding above the previous resistance zone at $3,080, now acting as support.
The next resistance target is $3,107 - $3,120, aligning with previous swing highs.
🔴 Bearish Scenario (If Invalidated):
If price falls back below $3,080, it could indicate a false breakout.
A break below $3,065 might lead to a retest of the $3,012 support zone.
📊 Final Trading Plan:
✅ Buy (Long) at: $3,080 - $3,085
🎯 Target 1: $3,107
🎯 Target 2: $3,120+ (Extended Target)
⛔ Stop Loss: $3,012
🔥 Conclusion: Bullish Bias with Caution
Gold (XAU/USD) has successfully broken out of the symmetrical triangle, signaling a strong bullish continuation. As long as price holds above $3,080, the bias remains bullish, targeting $3,107 - $3,120.
💡 Key Takeaway: Watch for a pullback and retest of $3,080 before entering, ensuring confirmation before committing to the trade.
🚀 Final Outlook: Bullish – Gold is positioned for further upside if momentum continues!
POTENTIAL LONG ENTRY - 3100 MAJOR ALGORITHMIC TARGETPrice is likely to re-test NY's lunch break range and grab liquidity below the 13:30PM NY EST low.
Asia should distribute strongly toward new ATHs and London would likely retest current resistance levels and bounce as well.
NY might enter at fest highs to create yet another manipulation to the downside to grab a discount price level.
I'm expecting price to reach 3100 within the next 2 weeks.
--
GOOD LUCK
XAU/USD Gold Bullish Momentum – Targeting $3,153+?📊 XAU/USD Daily Analysis – Bullish Continuation in Ascending Channel
🔹 Market Structure & Trend Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) remains in a well-defined ascending channel, respecting both dynamic support and resistance levels. The trend remains bullish, with higher highs and higher lows forming since late 2024. Currently, price is trading near the upper boundary of the channel, suggesting strong bullish momentum.
🔹 Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: $3,153 – $3,200 (potential breakout target)
Current Price: $3,020 (holding above key mid-range support)
Support Levels:
Channel Midline Support: ~$2,980
38.2% Fibonacci Retracement: ~$2,900 (potential corrective zone)
Channel Bottom Support: ~$2,700 (strong demand area)
🔹 Bullish Scenario 🟢
A break and close above $3,153 would confirm a bullish breakout, opening the door for a rally toward $3,200 and beyond.
Momentum remains strong, with price structure favoring continued upside as long as it stays above the midline of the channel.
🔹 Bearish Scenario 🔴
Failure to break above $3,153 could trigger a short-term pullback toward $2,980 - $2,900, where buyers may re-enter.
A confirmed breakdown below the ascending channel would invalidate the bullish setup and expose $2,700 - $2,600 as potential downside targets.
🔹 Conclusion & Trade Considerations
Bias: Bullish as long as price remains inside the ascending channel.
Entry Considerations: Retest of $3,020 - $2,980 as support could offer a high-probability long setup.
Breakout Confirmation: A daily close above $3,153 strengthens the bullish case for continuation.
XAU/USD Analysis–Bearish Continuation Within Descending Channel📉 Gold (XAU/USD) H1 Analysis – March 26, 2025
🔻 Descending Channel Formation:
The price remains confined within a downward-sloping channel, signaling continued bearish pressure.
Lower highs and lower lows confirm the short-term downtrend.
📍 Key Levels & Structure:
Current Price: $3,019
Resistance Zone: Around $3,025 - $3,030 (upper boundary of the channel)
Support Zone: $3,000 psychological level and potential lower boundary near $2,985
📌 Market Imbalance (MB) Not Filled:
A minor liquidity gap remains unfilled above, indicating a possible short-term retest before continuation.
📉 Bearish Expectation:
If price fails to break above the resistance trendline, we could see a drop toward $3,000 or even lower.
Watch for rejection signals at the upper boundary for short opportunities.
🔎 Trade Considerations:
Bearish Bias: Short entries from resistance with targets at $3,010 - $3,000.
Invalidation: A breakout above $3,030 could signal bullish strength.
GDP Data in Focus – Gold Traders Prepare for Volatility⚠️ GDP Data in Focus – Gold Traders Prepare for Volatility
🟡 Market Brief – 27/03/2025
📰 Trump’s Latest Tariff Remarks Leave Markets Unshaken
Earlier this morning (end of US session), Donald Trump made new comments on tariff policy.
However, unlike previous occasions, his speech did not trigger significant market volatility.
He stated:
“Reciprocal tariffs will be eased, broadly applied to all countries, but not harshly.”
🔹 A 25% import tariff on cars will take effect from April 2
🔹 No additional tariffs for now on semiconductors or pharmaceuticals
→ It appears the market had already priced in this announcement, resulting in a muted reaction.
📊 Today’s Spotlight – Final US GDP (q/q)
This is the broadest measure of inflation, reflecting price changes for all goods and services included in GDP.
Given the weakness in recent US inflation indicators (CPI & PPI),
AD anticipates today’s GDP may also come in weaker than expected.
⚠️ However, market reaction might remain limited (≈30 pts),
as Core PCE data tomorrow is expected to be the true driver of weekly volatility.
🟡 Gold Strategy – Intraday Setup
Gold may retest resistance levels or recent highs,
before a potential strong move to the downside – the BIG SHORT scenario AD has been tracking.
📌 Plan for Today:
Look for intraday BUY opportunities during the Asian and European sessions,
especially near key support levels marked on the chart.
🧭 Key Technical Levels:
🔻 Support: 3019 – 3011 – 3002 – 2988
🔺 Resistance: 3036 – 3046 – 3056
🎯 Trade Zones – 27/03:
🟢 BUY ZONE: 3002 – 3000
SL: 2996
TPs: 3006 – 3010 – 3014 – 3018 – 3022 – 3026 – 3030
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3055 – 3057
SL: 3061
TPs: 3051 – 3047 – 3042 – 3038 – 3034 – 3030
🧠 Final Note:
This week’s volatility hinges on two major macro releases:
✅ Today’s Final GDP report
✅ Tomorrow’s Core PCE data
→ During Asia & London sessions: respect the levels and trade reactively
→ For New York session: stay alert — AD will update instantly if needed
Good luck, trade safe, and stay disciplined.
— AD | Money Market Flow
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis - March 27, 2025 Chart InsightChart Insights
Timeframe: 30-minute chart
Current Price: $3,052.005
High: $3,052.060
Low: $3,039.910
Volume: 8.98K ticks
Trade Setup
Entry Criteria: A bearish candle formation on the 15-minute chart is required for entry.
Direction: Short (Sell) trade setup
Stop-Loss (SL): Around $3,053.421 (above resistance zone)
Take Profit (TP) Targets:
Target 1: ~$3,040 (previous support level)
Target 2: ~$3,026.486 (next major support)
Key Technical Factors
Strong Resistance Zone (~$3,048 - $3,053):
Price had a strong bullish rally but hit resistance.
A potential reversal zone if sellers gain control.
Bearish Confirmation Needed:
Waiting for a bearish candlestick (like a rejection wick, engulfing, or shooting star) on the 15-min chart for confirmation.
Volume Spike:
High buying pressure is observed, but if it weakens, a reversal could happen.
Conclusion:
If a bearish pattern forms, shorting gold with Targets at $3,040 and $3,026 is a viable plan.
If price breaks above $3,053 with strength, the bearish setup becomes invalid.
Would you like me to add further risk management details?
US Crude Oil (WTI) LONG setup
Your **US Crude Oil (WTI) buy setup** is structured with proper risk management in mind. Here's a breakdown of the key elements:
### 📌 **Entry Point: 69.600**
This is the price at which you plan to enter a long (buy) position. You should wait for confirmation (such as support holding, bullish candlestick patterns, or volume increase) before executing your trade.
### 🎯 **Target Price (TP): 71.100**
This is your take profit level, where you will close your trade to lock in profits. The difference between the entry and target price is **1.500 points**, which represents your potential reward.
### 🛑 **Stop Loss (SL): 68.900**
This is the price level where you will exit the trade if the market moves against you. The difference between the entry and stop loss is **0.700 points**, representing your potential risk.
---
### ⚖️ **Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:2.14**
- **Risk = 0.700 (Entry - Stop Loss)**
- **Reward = 1.500 (Target - Entry)**
- **Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) = Reward ÷ Risk = 1.500 ÷ 0.700 ≈ 2.14**
Since your **RRR is greater than 1:2**, this is a solid setup from a risk management perspective. It means that for every $1 you risk, you are aiming to gain about $2.14, which is a positive risk-to-reward trade.
---
### ✅ **Money Management (MM) Tips**
- **Position Sizing:** Ensure your lot size aligns with your risk tolerance. Example: If you risk 1% of your account per trade, adjust your lot size so that a 0.700 move against you equals 1% of your capital.
- **Wait for Confirmation:** Look for bullish signals before entry (e.g., candlestick patterns, moving average support, or RSI above 50).
- **Set Alerts:** Use alerts at key levels to monitor price movement instead of staring at charts all day.
OIL Today's strategyThis week, crude oil has been continuously fluctuating within the marked range, with bulls and bears contending with each other. It is necessary to pay more attention to the influencing factors.
we advise you to observe more and trade less.
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Be the Choosy trader on Gold!Price is dragging on dropping. being very indecisive. Looks like the entire market is waiting on News to help give it a push. I need to see price break out of value before I can get a read on a sold move. in the mean time this is sclaping conditions. You can hold trades. Have to cut them short quick with this price action. Since we have some USD news tomorrow that indicates that the market might be waiting for that before proceeding on any decisions. Patience is key!
Mid-Week Analysis March 27-28: USD FX Majors Stock Indices, ...In this video, we look back on the forecasts from this past weekend, and check how they are playing out to this point in the week.
USD Index, S&P500, Nasdaq ,Dow Jones, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Copper, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF, JPY.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Huge Buy for Gold XAUUSD (Trump announces tariffs of up to 25%)How Trump’s 25% Auto Tariffs Could Be a Huge Buy Signal for Gold
The proposed 25% tariffs on automobile imports to the U.S. by former President Donald Trump could have significant economic consequences, many of which could drive gold prices higher. Here’s why:
1. Trade War Fears and Market Uncertainty
A new wave of tariffs could escalate tensions with key trading partners, particularly the European Union, Japan, and South Korea, leading to retaliatory tariffs and a potential global trade war.
Uncertainty in global trade historically increases demand for gold as investors seek a safe haven from market volatility.
2. Higher Inflation and Rising Costs
Tariffs would increase the price of imported cars, leading to higher inflation in the U.S.
Rising inflation typically weakens consumer purchasing power and drives investors toward gold, a traditional inflation hedge.
3. Economic Slowdown and Risk of Recession
Automakers and suppliers may cut jobs or reduce production, impacting economic growth.
A slowing economy could trigger rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which would lower bond yields and make gold even more attractive as a non-yielding asset.
4. Pressure on the U.S. Dollar
Trade conflicts can destabilize the U.S. dollar, especially if major economies reduce reliance on U.S. exports or retaliate with their own tariffs.
A weaker dollar increases the price of gold, as gold becomes cheaper for foreign investors.
5. Central Bank Demand and Gold Accumulation
If economic uncertainty rises, central banks may increase gold reserves, further boosting demand.
We’ve already seen major central banks accumulating gold at record levels, and new trade disruptions could accelerate this trend.
Conclusion: A Strong Bull Case for Gold
If Trump’s 25% auto tariffs take effect, they could trigger inflation, market volatility, and economic slowdown, all of which are bullish for gold. With central banks buying aggressively and rate cuts likely on the horizon, this could be a major buying opportunity for gold traders.
Would you buy gold in this scenario? Let me know in the comments! 🚀