Commodities
GOLD LONG UNTIL 2033Throughout history, gold has been recognized as a reliable store of value. It doesn't corrode, tarnish, or decay over time, making it an enduring asset. This stability makes gold an attractive option for preserving wealth across generations.
Hedge Against Inflation:
Gold has often been considered a hedge against inflation. When inflation erodes the purchasing power of fiat currencies, the value of gold tends to rise. Investors often turn to gold as a way to protect their wealth from the negative effects of inflation.
Portfolio Diversification:
Including gold in an investment portfolio can contribute to diversification. Its value tends to move differently than stocks and bonds, which can help reduce overall portfolio risk. Many investors view gold as a "safe haven" asset during times of economic uncertainty.
Global Acceptance:
Gold is universally recognized and accepted as a form of payment or exchange. Its value is understood across cultures and nations, making it a global medium of exchange. This acceptance can contribute to the stability and reliability of a gold-backed currency.
Gold - The Next Bitcoin?The markets are beyond stretched—they’re squeezed all the way to the moon.
Today, I heard some major news: Big Money has already left the party, and others are following suit. This is HUGE. It’s also that classic moment when the barber starts sharing his “secret” stock tips.
Now, if you pair this with my recent Bitcoin post—where I outlined how a tulip-like crash could unfold—you’ll see we’re staring at the perfect recipe for a stock market KABOOM.
So, where will traders, investors, and even grandmas rush to when this unwinds? My bet: Gold. Where else? This is when the Gold Rocket ignites, replacing Bitcoin and the MAG7, creating yet another bubble—a glittering tulip 5.0. And just like before, it’ll burst when the fuel runs out.
Buckle up! 🚀
GOLD is neutral on the most important event day of the weekOANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery decreased under pressure from the US Dollar and US Treasury bond interest rates increased sharply. Strong US retail sales data caused gold prices to plummet to a week low of 2,633 USD/ounce yesterday trading day. Today (Wednesday), markets will focus on the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year.
About economic data
US retail sales rose more than expected in November, fueling rising inflation data in recent months and suggesting the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts in January next year.
Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Tuesday showed retail sales rose 0.7% month-on-month in November, the highest growth rate since September and above the 0.6% gain. expected.
Retail sales data for the first two months of the year was revised upward and October data was revised from a monthly increase of 0.4% to 0.5%.
The most important event this trading week
On Thursday, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate resolution and summary of economic expectations. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
Investors will need to pay close attention to the meeting statement and the press conference held by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell after the meeting to further assess future policy trends.
The Fed's updated economic forecasts and Dotplot charts are also the focus of market attention as they could reshape expectations about the trajectory of interest rates in 2025 and 2026.
On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy. What Powell "breathes" out will create big fluctuations in the market.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "FedWatch Tool" shows traders see a 95.4% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. Additionally, investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 100 basis points by 2025.
So the question is whether the Fed will be more hawkish or dovish than the market expects. Because of Trump's victory, the market will have to reassess the Fed's interest rate expectations, and may need to be more cautious about further interest rate cuts at this time.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold attempted to recover after testing the 0.618% Fibonacci level, a position that readers noticed in the previous issue.
Temporarily, the trend of gold prices is noticed by the price channel, however the position is quite neutral with price activity around EMA21 and the Relative Strength Index also sticking around 50.
Perhaps, the technical chart needs a sudden impact to create a trend, and considering the current position, gold could increase in price if it breaks above the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level then the target level is about 2,676USD In the short term, more than $2,693.
On the other hand, if gold is sold below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement support level, it could open a new bearish cycle with price activity returning to the price channel and the target then being around 2,591USD in the medium term.
During the day, the technical trend is neutral and notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,634 – 2,603 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,663 – 2,676 – 2,693USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2680 - 2678⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2684
→Take Profit 1 2673
↨
→Take Profit 2 2668
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2623⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2617
→Take Profit 1 2628
↨
→Take Profit 2 2633
The economy is looking to the FedThe Fed has started its two-day policy meeting and is expected to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points. However, the focus will be on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plot, which provide guidance for interest rates in 2025.
While US Treasury yields and real yields both edged lower, the US dollar remained steady. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.379%, while the DXY index rose 0.07% to 107.01.
On the technical front, gold prices maintain their long-term uptrend but are under pressure in the short term. The key support level now is $2,600/ounce, which corresponds to the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). A break of this level could send prices lower to $2,531 – the August 20 high. Conversely, if the price breaks above $2,650, the next target will be $2,670 (50-day SMA), and then $2,700.
In addition to the Fed’s decision, investors are awaiting the release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, to gauge the future direction of policy. Signs that the incoming Trump administration may push for expansionary fiscal policy have raised expectations of a change in the Fed’s stance in the near term.
World gold price todayGold prices continued to weaken today due to stronger-than-expected important US economic news. The US retail sales report for November showed an increase of 0.7%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the forecast increase of 0.5%.
This information made some gold investors worry that the FED may postpone the 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut after the end of the monetary policy meeting in the early morning of December 19. Since then, many people have temporarily stopped trading gold.
On the other hand, gold is also likely to have limited purchasing power due to some forecasts of rising inflation in the US, a slowing labor market..., prompting the FED to stop cutting interest rates early in 2025. At that time, the USD could increase in value very strongly, negatively affecting the world gold price trend.
The question now is whether the Fed will be more hawkish or dovish than the market has been expecting. Investors are now expecting the Fed to be more cautious in easing monetary policy, given the impact of Donald Trump’s agenda on inflation.
Trend analysis and strategy, continue to look at reboundGold bottomed out and rebounded on the daily line, MA10/7-day moving averages were flat at 2661/70, and the RSI indicator was running at the 50 value of the middle axis. The short-term four-hour chart bottomed out and rebounded, and the Bollinger Band lower track 2630 was supported to a certain extent. The hourly moving average golden cross opened upward, and the RSI indicator bottom diverged and stood above the middle axis. The callback during today's trading day is still mainly for low-price longs, and then consider selling.
After yesterday's decline, gold continued to return to volatility. After today, the NY market will usher in the Fed's interest rate decision, so gold will most likely continue to fluctuate before the Fed's interest rate decision, and then wait for the Fed's interest rate decision to decide the winner.
The 1-hour moving average of gold is still in a short position. The gold rebound still focuses on the resistance near the last high of 2667 and continues to see a volatile decline. Gold rebounds above 2660 and can continue to be short. Pay attention to the 2633 first-line support below. Gold fluctuates in this range and waits for the Fed's interest rate decision before choosing a direction.
First support: 2640, second support: 2633, third support: 2615
First resistance: 2658, second resistance: 2667, third resistance: 2678
Trading strategy:
Before the US interest rate decision, sell high and buy low in the range of 2633~2667
XAUUSD - Daily | BREAKOUT IncomingSimple Trading - Ascending Triangle
Gold is overall bullish so if the pattern breaks, it should break to the upside. Of course, if gold can not maintain bullish momentum, it may result in a further decline in the price.
This pattern may not break out until the end of Dec. maybe into Jan. with this in mind we are still about to take price action trades on the smaller time frames.
Levels to look out for:
BULLISH:
2673 - 4hr FVG low
2683 - 4hr FVG High
2700 - supply and demand
BEARISH:
2624 - 1hr Head and Shoulder Target
2610 - Daily FVG High
2590 - Daily FVG Midpoint
2575 - Daily FVG Low
2560 - Daily Double Bottom
XAU/USD (Gold) Wedge BreakoutThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2678
2nd Support – 2692
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Bearish drop?The Gold (XAU/USD) is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 2,665.31
1st Support: 2,628.12
1st Resistance: 2,690.20
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Potential bullish rise?The Silver (XAG/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 30.23
1st Support: 29.66
1st Resistance: 30.95
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
BOTTOM FOR GOLD? - FED RATES TOMORROW; ONLY A PROJECTION! As illustrated, I am trying to visualize what COULD be an inverted head & shoulders pattern, THAT HAS NOT BEEN FORMED YET!
I REPEAT: IT HAS NOT BEEN FORMED YET
The only reason I share this idea, is because tomorrow, WED 18th, the FED has to decide for the last time this year if to lower rates or keep them at 4.75% basis points. Should the FED decide to LOWER them, this could cause gold to spike and potentially being the bullish impulse I am trying to project here.
Should the FED KEEP the rates where they are, the market MIGHT simply continue its "current normal" path which STILL HAS BEARISH STRUCTURE.
THAT BEING SAID ...
Be patient with this potential setup, and wait for the rates to come out + a few hours for the market to price in the decision of the FED, because there is still room for gold to drop to the psychological price range of 2610 - 2600.
Gold is at a spot where it could manipulate one more time before a pop to the upside, in order to induce sellers and generate liquidity.
Regardless the outcome of the FED rates, if price does indeed take off, make sure it closes above the pivot area illustrated and make sure such area HODLS as support In the near future for a potential buy opportunity towards a year-end bull expansion toward + 2730...
--
GOOD LUCK!
Apple Earnings Boost Stock to 182 ? Reasons Why
Apple’s Fiscal 2024 First Quarter Results:
Apple reported its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, which ended on December 30, 2023. Here are the key highlights:
Revenue: The company posted quarterly revenue of $119.6 billion, representing a 2 percent year-over-year increase.
Earnings Per Share (EPS): Quarterly earnings per diluted share reached $2.18, marking a 16 percent year-over-year growth.
Services Revenue: Apple achieved an all-time record in services revenue during this quarter.
Active Devices: The installed base of active Apple devices surpassed 2.2 billion, reaching an all-time high across all products and geographic segments.
Cash Flow and Dividends: Apple generated nearly $40 billion of operating cash flow and returned almost $27 billion to shareholders. The company’s board of directors declared a cash dividend of $0.24 per share of common stock, payable on February 15, 2024.
Long Idea and Earnings Impact:
While the earnings report reflects strong performance, it’s essential to consider the broader market context and analysts’ expectations.
Analysts estimate an average EPS of $1.41 for Apple’s second quarter of 2024, with a range between $1.32 and $1.45.
As an investor, you might want to assess factors such as:
iPhone Sales: The growth in iPhone sales significantly contributed to Apple’s revenue. Monitor iPhone demand trends and product launches.
Services Segment: Services revenue hit a record high. Evaluate the sustainability of this growth.
Margin Expansion: The all-time record EPS resulted from margin expansion. Understand the drivers behind this improvement.
Dividends: Apple’s consistent dividend payments provide income for long-term investors.
GOLD → Manipulation ahead of a possible rate cutFX:XAUUSD is declining after a false breakout of 2658 (0.5 fibo). We can say that this is a manipulation before a possible growth. Technically gold has a neutral trend. The emphasis is on support.
Markets continue to consider the possibility that the Fed will lower interest rate by 0.25% on Wednesday. This could spark a bearish rally in the dollar, which would be favorable for gold, which is heading for support. But here we should also take into account the comments of the Fed, which based on economic data is beginning to question its decisions and change into a hawk. The suspension of the rate cut cycle in January may put pressure on the markets, including gold, but this problem is postponed until 2025. Today all eyes are on retail sales.
Technically, gold is flat and heading for strong support....
Resistance levels: 2646, 2658
Support levels: 2633, 2620, 2617
Price is heading towards support before the news. Manipulation before a possible rise? The probability is high :)
We are waiting for support retest, false breakdown and possible growth to the mentioned targets
Regards R. Linda!
XAGUSD: Bottom of the Rising Wedge. Bullish.Silver is marginally bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 43.462, MACD = -0.151, ADX = 27.970) as it trades under the 1D MA50 but still over the 1D MA200. The latter is at the bottom of the long term Rising Wedge and is the technical support level. As long as it holds, we will be bullish on Silver, aiming at its top for the next HH (TP = 37.000).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
EXN ready for a little rallyGold Silver and all the other miners got slaughtered recently, so I'm curious how this will work. Excellon is in a good jurisdiction well financed insider buying all that stuff. Technicals show increased volume price keeping pretty steady despite the sector sell off. We have been consolidating inside a triangle and a wedge giving us two targets. If gold and silver reverse losses, fed cuts EXN might catch a nice bid.
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Not much to update on our route map, as price is still playing within the range for tomorrows pre-fomc gear up.
We are currently seeing price play in the retracement zone to provide support for the bounce with the full gap still left open at 2628. We also have the full bullish gap above left open at 2666 to keep in mind.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2666
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2666 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2682
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2682 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2697
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2697 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2719
BEARISH TARGETS
2645 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2645 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2628
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2628 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2606 - 2586
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX