Gold may break support level and continue to decline nextHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. The price started to grow from the buyer zone between 2885–2905 points, forming a clean bullish impulse and entering a broadening wedge structure. During the uptrend, Gold made several rebounds from the support line and broke above the current support level at 3070, which later became a key point in the price structure. After reaching the resistance line of the wedge, the price turned around and began a downward correction. The decline brought it back into the support area between 3087–3070 points, but this zone has already failed to hold the momentum. Currently, XAU is trading below the upper boundary of the support area and showing clear signs of weakness. The breakout to the downside from the wedge structure has already taken place, and the price is starting to form a local pullback. I expect this pullback to be short-lived, followed by a continuation of the downward movement. My target for this move is the 2990 level, which aligns with the support line of the broadening wedge and serves as the next strong reaction zone. Given the failed rebound from resistance, the breakdown of the support area, and the structure of the broadening wedge, I remain bearish and expect Gold to continue declining toward TP 1 — 2990 level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Commodities
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-4 : Breakaway PatternToday is a very interesting day because my MRM investment model turned BEARISH on the Daily chart. That means we have broken through major support because of this tariff war and the markets are not OFFICIALLY (based on my models) into a Daily BEARISH trend (or a Daily Broad Pullback Phase).
What that means is we need to start thinking of the markets as OVERALL BEARISH and trying to identify support - or a base/bottom in the near future.
This is no longer a BULLISH market - everything seems to have flipped into a BEARISH primary trend (OFFICIALLY).
So, watch this video to understand how Fibonacci price levels will likely play out as the SPY targeting the 500-505 level (possibly lower) and where the same Fibonacci price levels will prompt the QQQ to target 395-400.
BUCKLE UP. This is a BIG CHANGE related to overall market trend.
Gold is holding up much better than Silver. But I still believe this is a PANIC selling phase in Gold/Silver and they will both base/recovery and RALLY much higher.
The funny thing about the cycles in Gold/Silver is this:
In 2007-08, just after the major expansion phase completed, the Global Financial Crisis hit - prompting a large downward price rotation in metals.
Maybe, just maybe, this forced tariff war issue is a disruption that will "speed up" the process of metals rallying above $5000++ over the next 60+ days.
I see this move as PHASES and it appears the tariff disruption may prompt a faster Phase-Shift for metals over the next few months. We'll see.
BTCUSD seems to be in SHOCK. It's really going nowhere on very low volume.
If BTCUSD is a true hedge or alternate store of value - I would think it would have an upward reaction to this selling.
We'll see how this plays out.
Get some.
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Let's cover the action of some instruments as we get the NFPLet's see what's happening with the market as we get the NFP number live.
Let's dig in!
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
TVC:DXY
TVC:GOLD
FRED:SP500
FX_IDC:EURUSD
MARKETSCOM:EURUSD
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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SILVER INTRADAY pullback to support at 3090Silver maintains a bullish sentiment, in line with the prevailing uptrend. Recent intraday price action suggests a corrective pullback, potentially retesting the previous consolidation zone for support.
Key Level: 3090
This zone represents a significant area of prior consolidation and now acts as a key support level.
Bullish Scenario:
A pullback toward 3090 followed by a bullish bounce would confirm continued upside momentum. Immediate resistance targets include 3266, with extended upside potential toward 3350 and 3450 over the longer term.
Bearish Alternative:
A confirmed breakdown and daily close below 3090 would negate the current bullish outlook. This would open the door for a deeper retracement toward 3028, followed by 2945.
Conclusion:
Silver remains technically bullish while trading above 3090. A successful retest and rebound from this level would support further upside. However, a daily close below 3090 would shift sentiment bearish in the short term, increasing the risk of a deeper correction.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
“Weak Demand Signals Potential for a Lower Low”Currently, the position of NCF1! or Newcastle Coal is within wave 5 of wave (C) of wave , indicating that Newcastle Coal remains vulnerable to further corrections toward the 86.55–96.15 range, as represented by the black labels.
A similar pattern is observed in the red labels, where Newcastle Coal is also nearing the completion of wave (5) of wave .
We observe continued pressure on coal demand due to weak consumption and oversupply, as many countries are increasingly investing in renewable energy sources amid slower global economic growth.
GOLD Bullish consolidation supported at 3058Gold maintains a bullish sentiment, in line with the prevailing uptrend. Recent intraday price action suggests a corrective pullback, potentially retesting the previous consolidation zone for support.
Key Level: 3058
This zone represents a significant area of prior consolidation and now acts as a key support level.
Bullish Scenario:
A pullback toward 3058 followed by a bullish bounce would confirm continued upside momentum. Immediate resistance targets include 3141, with extended upside potential toward 3167 and 3198 over the longer term.
Bearish Alternative:
A confirmed breakdown and daily close below 3058 would negate the current bullish outlook. This would open the door for a deeper retracement toward 3028, followed by 3000 and 2974.
Conclusion:
Gold remains technically bullish while trading above 3058. A successful retest and rebound from this level would support further upside. However, a daily close below 3058 would shift sentiment bearish in the short term, increasing the risk of a deeper correction.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Skeptic | Gold Gears Up: Battle Between 3075.66 & 3128Welcome back, guys! 👋 I'm Skeptic.
Today, we're diving deep into XAU/USD (Gold) , breaking down the current structure and upcoming trade opportunities. 🔍
📊 Daily Structure:
The major trend remains bullish , with Gold showing strong upward momentum. If you've been following my previous breakdowns, you’ll remember I gave long triggers at 2955.31 , 3004.48 , and recently 3057.26 —all of which have played out well. Even if you entered based on your own signals in line with the trend, you should be sitting comfortably in profit.
🕒 1H Structure – What’s Next?
After that strong uptrend, Gold has entered a correction phase on the 1H chart.
📰 News Impact:
The recent announcement from President Trump imposing sweeping tariffs (10% baseline and up to 54% on China) has created major volatility across markets, including Gold. This geopolitical tension has added momentum to the asset, and we’re seeing it clearly on the chart.
📈 Bullish Scenario (Long Setup):
• Trigger: Break & close above 3128
• Since this aligns with the trend, larger targets and longer hold times are justified.
📉 Bearish Scenario (Short Setup):
• Trigger: Break & hold below 3075.66
• Manage risk carefully here—use tighter stop-losses and secure profits quickly since this is counter-trend.
⚠️ Key Notes:
🔹 Fundamentals: Heavy economic news flow today = High volatility expected.
🔹 Risk Management: Don’t overleverage. Only enter on confirmed breaks.
Stay skeptical, trade smart, and I’ll catch you in the next analysis! 👽📈
WTI / OIL PoV - Break Point 65$ / 62$ / 47$ LONG The price of oil has recently undergone a significant retracement, dropping to its lowest levels in the last three months. This decline has been influenced by several factors, including trade tariff policies and decisions made by OPEC+.
In March 2025, the price of Brent crude fell below $70, touching a low of $69.76, its lowest since September. In New York, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) lost 1.64%, reaching $67.24. New tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on imports from Canada and Mexico have fueled uncertainty about international trade, raising concerns that global economic slowdown might cause oil demand to fall behind supply.
Additionally, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 138,000 barrels per day in April, with the goal of reaching a production level of 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026. This decision contributed to an oversupply that could negatively affect prices, especially if economic growth slows.
Trade tariffs have had a direct impact on the oil market. In February 2025, China imposed a 10% tariff on U.S. crude oil in response to U.S. tariffs, contributing to the drop in oil prices to their lowest levels of the year. Additionally, U.S. crude oil inventories increased beyond expectations, indicating further weakness in demand.
Geopolitical tensions, such as the U.S. proposals to take control of Gaza and the intention to strengthen sanctions on Iran, have added further uncertainty to the market, affecting consumer and investor confidence.
Regarding the price levels you’ve identified for potential purchases, it's important to note that the oil market is influenced by a combination of geopolitical, economic, and supply factors. The support levels at $65, $62, and $57 that you've pointed out may represent significant technical levels, but it’s crucial to monitor geopolitical developments and trade policies that can affect price volatility. It is advisable to consult up-to-date sources and market analysis before making investment decisions.
Gold/Silver Ratio Nears 100: What Does It Mean Historically?The Gold/Silver ratio is on the verge of reaching 100, an extremely rare level seen only at key historical turning points. The chart includes a 2,500-week linear regression channel, which shows that over the very long term, the ratio has been steadily rising, though at a slow pace. Occasionally, the ratio touches the 1.5 standard deviation line, and in rare, game-changing events, and sometimes it even breaks beyond that level.
Here are some of the key historical turning points marked by major spikes in the Gold/Silver ratio:
1- Early 1990s: The collapse of the Soviet Union, the Gulf War, and a U.S. recession pushed the ratio to 106. It remained above 1.5 standard deviations for more than two years.
2- 2002: Following the dot-com bubble burst, the 9/11 attacks, and the Iraq War, the ratio climbed to 82.6, nearing the 1.5 deviation line.
3- 2008 Recession: The global financial crisis triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers sent the ratio to 88.50. This spike sparked a major rally in both gold and silver, lasting until 2011 when the ratio reached one of its deepest bottoms.
4- 2019: The U.S.–China trade war under Trump’s first term pushed the ratio to 93, again nearing the 1.5 deviation threshold.
5- 2020 (COVID-19 Shock): The pandemic caused one of the biggest disruptions in modern economic history. Although relatively short-lived, its impacts were severe. The Gold/Silver ratio surged to 126 , marking the highest level in modern records, possibly the highest in all of history.
6- 2024–2025 (Global Trade War?): With the U.S. imposing major tariffs on key global trading partners, this could be another historic inflection point. The full impact is still unfolding, but risks of a serious global slowdown, or even a deep recession are rising. A full-scale trade war remains a real possibility.
Now, the Gold/Silver ratio is approaching 100 and nearing the 1.5 standard deviation line. It remains unclear whether this represents a powerful pair trade opportunity—"sell gold, buy silver"—or a structural breakout where the ratio stays elevated for an extended period. In either case market is showing that this is one of the rare turning point of global economy.
Detailed Analysis of Silver (XAG/USD) – Double Top BreakoutThe chart represents a technical analysis of Silver (XAG/USD) on the daily timeframe (1D). A Double Top pattern, one of the most reliable bearish reversal formations, is developing. This signals a potential downtrend, with key price levels and trendlines confirming weakness in bullish momentum. Below is a full breakdown of the pattern, price action, and trading setup.
1️⃣ Pattern Formation: Double Top – Bearish Reversal
A Double Top pattern occurs when the price reaches a resistance level twice, failing to break higher. It indicates a shift from a bullish trend to a bearish one.
🔹 Characteristics of the Double Top in This Chart:
First Peak (Top 1 - Resistance at ~$34.57):
The price made a strong move upward, reaching a high near $34.57.
Selling pressure at this level pushed the price downward, forming a support level near $30 (Neckline).
Pullback & Temporary Support (~$30 Neckline):
Buyers stepped in at the support zone, causing a bounce back towards resistance.
This level acted as strong demand, preventing further decline temporarily.
Second Peak (Top 2 - Rejection at Resistance Again):
Price attempted to break above the previous peak but failed.
This failure to form a higher high confirms the presence of strong sellers.
The second rejection strengthens the resistance level at $34.57, signaling exhaustion in buying momentum.
Break of the Trendline Support (Bearish Shift):
A previously ascending trendline (black dashed line) was providing support for the uptrend.
Price broke below this trendline, indicating a possible trend reversal from bullish to bearish.
2️⃣ Key Technical Levels & Trading Setup
🔸 Resistance Zone (~$34.57 - Stop Loss Area)
This is the major resistance level, tested twice and confirmed as a supply zone.
A move above $34.57 would invalidate the bearish pattern, making this an ideal stop-loss level.
🔹 Support Level / Neckline (~$30 - Breakdown Confirmation)
The neckline acts as a critical level. If the price breaks below $30, the Double Top formation is confirmed.
If the price retests this level from below and rejects (fails to reclaim it as support), it becomes a strong short entry signal.
🔻 Target Price (Projected Move - $23.01)
The target is based on the measured move rule of a Double Top:
Distance from resistance ($34.57) to neckline ($30) ≈ $4.57.
Projecting this same distance downward gives a target of ~$23.01.
This aligns with historical demand zones, increasing the probability of price reaching this level.
3️⃣ Trading Plan: Short Setup Execution
🔽 Short Entry (Breakdown Confirmation Below $30)
Ideal entry point is after the neckline breaks and confirms resistance upon a retest.
A breakdown with strong volume enhances the validity of the setup.
🚨 Stop Loss Placement (Above $34.57 Resistance Level)
Placing a stop above the second peak ($34.57) ensures protection against invalidation.
If price moves back above this level, the pattern fails, indicating a potential return to bullish momentum.
🎯 Target Price ($23.01) – Measured Move Projection
The price target aligns with the pattern structure and historical support levels.
Traders can take partial profits at intermediary levels ($27–$26) before full target realization.
4️⃣ Additional Confirmation Factors – Confluence for Bearish Bias
1️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI & MACD Bearish Signals
If RSI (Relative Strength Index) drops below 50, it confirms weakening bullish momentum.
A MACD bearish crossover (signal line crossing below the MACD line) would further validate the downtrend.
2️⃣ Volume Analysis – Breakout Confirmation
A high volume breakout below $30 confirms selling pressure.
Low-volume breakdowns can lead to false breakouts, making volume a crucial factor to watch.
3️⃣ Fundamental Factors – Macro Outlook on Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver prices are influenced by interest rates, inflation, and USD strength.
If USD strengthens, silver could face more selling pressure, aligning with this bearish technical setup.
Any hawkish monetary policy statements could accelerate the downside movement.
5️⃣ Risk Management & Alternative Scenarios
✔️ Ideal Risk-Reward Ratio
Risk: Stop loss at $34.57 (~4.5% above entry)
Reward: Target at $23.01 (~23% move)
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:5 (highly favorable for short trades)
⚠️ Bullish Invalidations – When to Avoid the Trade?
If Silver reclaims $34.57 and holds above, the pattern fails.
A false breakout scenario could occur if price breaks below $30 but quickly moves back above.
Watching for bullish divergence on indicators like RSI before entering a short position is recommended.
Final Conclusion: Bearish Bias with Strong Downside Potential
📉 Summary of the Bearish Case:
✔️ Double Top pattern confirms a bearish reversal if the neckline breaks.
✔️ Break of ascending trendline signals increasing seller control.
✔️ Key levels: Stop-loss above $34.57 | Entry below $30 | Target $23.01.
✔️ Additional confluence: RSI, MACD, and volume confirmation strengthen the trade setup.
🚀 If price action aligns with this analysis, this setup presents a high-probability short opportunity.
Would you like any refinements or additional insights? 🔥
Non-Farm Payrolls – April 4: The key market driver!On Friday, April 4, 2025 at 3:30 PM EET, the U.S. Department of Labor will release one of the most anticipated macroeconomic reports — the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). This figure reflects the change in the number of jobs in the non-farm sector and is a crucial indicator of economic health. Strong numbers suggest economic expansion and may prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy, while weak data could strengthen expectations of rate cuts — impacting stocks, the U.S. dollar, bonds, and commodities.
Historically, NFP reports have triggered significant market reactions, with sharp movements depending on the actual data versus expectations. Analysts forecast a moderate job gain, indicating a slowdown compared to recent months. The release comes amid uncertainty linked to new tariffs introduced by President Trump, which may affect business confidence and consumer spending. Investors are closely watching for signals on the economy’s direction and potential Federal Reserve actions.
How could NFP impact the markets?
• Stock market: Weak data could stoke recession fears, pressuring equities, especially in cyclical sectors. However, if seen as a reason for Fed easing, markets may rebound.
• U.S. Dollar: A disappointing report might weigh on the dollar as investors adjust their rate expectations. Strong figures, on the other hand, would support USD.
• Bonds: Slower job growth could drive demand for U.S. Treasuries, pushing yields lower.
• Gold: In case of weak data, gold may rally as a safe haven amid rising expectations of looser monetary policy.
Economists expect a job gain of around 140,000, lower than previous figures — a scenario that could increase market volatility. Get ready for big moves!
Gold trading on April 3, 2025Market Summary:
The market was shaken as Trump imposed a 10% tariff on imports, triggering fears of a trade war after China announced retaliatory measures. This sparked concerns over a potential economic downturn, pushing gold prices to record highs as the USD faced heavy selling pressure.
Investors, worried about a recession, are now pricing in a 70% chance of a Fed rate cut in June. Bond yields fell as the USD remained under pressure. Meanwhile, ADP data showed 155K new jobs, but it failed to support the USD.
Trading Plan:
XAUUSD Buy Zone: 3082 - 3080
Stop Loss (SL): 3077
Take Profit (TP): 3085 - 3088 - 3095 - Open
Wishing everyone an amazing trading day!
XAUUSD: 3/4 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance 3200, support below 3100
Four-hour chart resistance 3170, support below 3100
One-hour chart resistance 3150, support below 3105.
Gold news analysis: For weeks, Trump has been claiming that April 2 is "Liberation Day", on which the United States will introduce large-scale reciprocal tariffs that may subvert the global trade system, and plans to announce this wave of new tariffs at 4 pm Eastern Time (in the Rose Garden of the White House). According to the Washington Post, Trump's aides are considering a plan to impose tariffs of about 20% on products from almost all countries, rather than targeting certain countries or certain products. According to the newspaper, the government expects the new tariffs to bring more than 6 Trillion dollars of income, these income can be returned to Americans in the form of tax refunds.
Gold operation suggestions: Gold consolidated yesterday and held the 3100 integer mark. Today, the Asian session opened and broke through. After reaching 3167.8, it began to turn downward and fell below the short-term long and short top and bottom conversion position of 3135.
From the current trend analysis, the short-term support below focuses on 3100-3105 on the one-hour/four-hour/daily chart. The daily level stabilizes above this position and continues to buy at a low level. Patiently wait for the retracement to buy. Short selling can only enter the market after the key support is lost.
Buy: 3120near SL:3115
Buy: 3105near SL:3099
Buy: 3100near SL:3095
For more daily sharing, please pay attention
Crude Oil Dipped, Testing Critical Support Level FenzoFx—Crude oil dropped from $72.20 and is now testing the $68.8 support. The decline was expected as the Stochastic oscillator signaled overbought conditions.
If $68.8 breaks, the downtrend could extend to $67.6.
Bullish Scenario : However, a higher low above $70.15 would invalidate the bearish outlook, potentially pushing prices back to $72.20.
Gold (XAU/USD) – Rising Wedge Breakdown & Bearish SetupOverview
Gold (XAU/USD) has been in a strong uptrend, making consistent higher highs and higher lows. However, the price action has formed a Rising Wedge Pattern, which is typically a bearish reversal formation. This pattern suggests that the bullish momentum is weakening, and a potential sell-off could follow.
The recent breakdown of the wedge structure confirms the bearish bias, and sellers are now in control. Based on price action analysis, we can anticipate further downside movement toward key support levels.
📊 Technical Analysis – Rising Wedge Breakdown
1️⃣ Understanding the Rising Wedge Pattern
The Rising Wedge is a bearish pattern that occurs when the price consolidates within an upward-sloping channel but shows signs of exhaustion. Here’s how it developed:
Higher Highs & Higher Lows: The price consistently formed higher peaks and troughs, indicating an uptrend.
Declining Bullish Momentum: As the wedge progressed, price action became increasingly squeezed, showing reduced bullish strength.
Breakout Confirmation: Once the lower trendline of the wedge was breached, it confirmed that buyers were losing control and that sellers had stepped in.
2️⃣ Key Levels & Market Structure
🔵 Resistance Level: The upper boundary of the wedge around $3,150 - $3,163 acted as a supply zone, where sellers pushed prices lower.
🟠 Support Level: The lower boundary of the wedge, around $3,100 - $3,120, initially provided demand but eventually failed to hold.
🔻 Breakdown Confirmation: The price broke below the wedge, which is a strong bearish signal.
🎯 Trade Setup & Strategy
3️⃣ Bearish Trading Plan
Given the breakdown of the wedge pattern, the setup favors a short (sell) trade. Here’s how to approach it:
📉 Sell Entry:
The ideal short position is initiated after a confirmed break of the wedge’s support level.
📍 Stop Loss (SL):
A tight stop-loss is placed above the previous resistance at $3,163.67, ensuring risk is controlled if the trade goes against the bias.
🎯 Take Profit (TP) Targets:
TP 1: $3,080.66 – First major support level, where buyers might step in temporarily.
TP 2: $3,057.33 – Extended downside target, offering a greater risk-to-reward ratio.
4️⃣ Additional Price Expectations
Retest of the Wedge Breakdown: The price may pull back to the broken wedge support before continuing downward.
Stronger Bearish Momentum: If selling pressure remains strong, price could fall even lower, breaking TP 2.
Invalidation Level: If price climbs above $3,163, the wedge breakdown would be invalidated, signaling that bulls have regained control.
📌 Conclusion & Market Sentiment
🔹 Rising Wedge Breakdown Signals Further Downside – The market structure suggests that sellers are gaining control.
🔹 Sell Setup with Risk-Managed Approach – With a defined stop-loss and two profit targets, this trade offers a favorable risk-to-reward setup.
🔹 Gold’s Short-Term Bearish Outlook – The chart confirms a potential correction, and price may drop towards $3,080 and $3,057 if the bearish momentum continues.
📊 Final Thought:
This is a high-probability short trade based on classic technical analysis. Traders should monitor for confirmation retests and manage risk accordingly. ✅
Would you like any refinements or additional insights? 🚀
WTI Crude Oil (XTIUSD) – H4 SELL SetupWTI Crude Oil (XTIUSD) – H4 SELL Setup
Price has reacted from a key H4 supply zone after taking out previous highs. A clean bearish shift suggests continuation to the downside.
🔹 Entry: At supply zone
🔹 SL: Above mitigation zone
🔹 TPs:
First support
Equal lows
Extended swing low
Bias: Bearish
Reasoning: Liquidity sweep + market structure shift + imbalance
Gold is reversing before reaching the round $3,000 mark.Gold is reversing before reaching the round $3,000 mark.
As you can see on the chart, we’ve hit the 227% Fibonacci level.
— Back in 2008, after testing this level, we went into a correction.
— I think we might see a similar scenario play out from here.
Dollar Index:
SP500/SPY: