Targeting a new era peak, risks blanket the marketOANDA:XAUUSD hit another all-time high as U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of tariffs increased market fears of a global trade war, boosting safe-haven demand.
Trump's tariff policy and global market reaction
Trump said on Wednesday that he would announce new tariffs on lumber, autos, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals "next month or sooner."
Since taking office on January 20, Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on imports from China and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum.
As trade risks increase, global central banks are likely to continue buying gold, which is one of the key supporting factors for gold prices.
Ukraine situation and the possibility of gold correction in the short term
Trump also criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as a "dictator" on Wednesday and warned that Ukraine must quickly reach a peace deal with Russia or lose the country.
If a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is reached, geopolitical tensions could temporarily ease in the short term, which could put pressure on gold prices. However, gold still has enough fundamental support and the long-term uptrend could continue.
Fed policy and Swiss gold exports soar
Minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting released Wednesday showed that Trump's early economic policies have raised concerns about rising inflation. This reinforces the Fed's stance on maintaining the current interest rate policy.
According to foreign media, Swiss customs data showed that Swiss gold exports increased significantly year-on-year in January, with gold exports to the United States reaching their highest level in at least 13 years.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after gold reached the target level of 2,946 USD, readers noted in the previous issue that the price point of the Fibonacci extension was 0.382%, it broke this level to renew its all-time high.
With the current position, if gold takes price action above the 0.382% Fibonacci extension level once again, it will have conditions to continue to increase with a target then around 2,971 USD in the short term, more than 2,996 – 3,000 USD.
The relative strength index also does not indicate any possibility of a downward correction in terms of momentum.
During the day, the short-term uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by trend, and as long as gold remains in the price channel, it still has a main bullish outlook, declines should only be considered as short-term corrections or a buying opportunity.
Notable locations will also be noticed again as follows.
Support: 2,922 – 2,915USD
Resistance: 2,954 – 2,971 – 2,996USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2971 - 2969⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2975
→Take Profit 1 2963
↨
→Take Profit 2 2957
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2909 - 2911⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2905
→Take Profit 1 2917
↨
→Take Profit 2 2923
Commodities
WTI Oil H1 | Falling to 61.8% Fibonacci pullback supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 72.29 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 71.55 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support.
Take profit is at 73.34 which is a swing-high resistance.
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Gold (XAU/USD) Bullish Trend – Retest of Support Before BreakoutGold (XAU/USD) Bullish Trend – Retest of Support Before Breakout 🚀
📊 Timeframe: 4H
💰 Current Price: $2,938
📈 Trend: Strong Uptrend with Higher Highs & Higher Lows
Market Overview:
Gold is following a well-established bullish trend, consistently respecting the trendline support and bouncing off key support zones. The price is currently retesting a critical support level at $2,865, which aligns with previous breakout zones.
Key Levels to Watch:
✅ Support Zones: $2,865 (Major trendline support)
✅ Resistance Zones: $3,000 (Psychological level & next target)
✅ Potential Deeper Pullback: $2,730 (Secondary support)
Technical Analysis:
🔹 Trendline Holding: Price has respected the trendline multiple times, acting as dynamic support.
🔹 Support Zone Confirmation: Each dip into the support zones has led to a continuation of the uptrend.
🔹 Potential Breakout Towards $3,000: If support holds, gold could target the psychological level of $3,000.
Trade Plan:
🔹 Bullish Scenario:
A successful retest of $2,865 with bullish confirmation (strong candles, wicks rejecting lower levels) could trigger an entry.
Target: $3,000 (resistance zone)
🔹 Bearish Scenario:
If price breaks below $2,865, we could see a correction to $2,730 before resuming the uptrend.
XAUUSD (Gold) Analysis Report: Market Trends and Future OutlookXAUUSD (Gold)
Current Market Overview
Gold has experienced a slight downturn recently, reflecting broader market uncertainties and shifts in investor sentiment. However, technical analysis indicates that a bullish move could be on the horizon if certain conditions are met.
Technical Analysis
Trendline and Key Levels
The current analysis suggests that the market is slightly bearish. However, a potential bullish move could be observed if the market breaks above the established trendline. Key levels to watch include:
Retracement Level: 2342.35
Target Levels: 2483.74 and 2601.55
A break above the trendline and the retracement level of 2342.35 could set the stage for upward movement, potentially reaching the target levels of 2483.74 and 2601.55.
Conclusion
While the gold market currently shows signs of a slight downtrend, a bullish move could be imminent if critical technical levels are breached. As always, it is essential for traders and investors to conduct thorough analysis and consider all factors before making any decisions. This report aims to provide insights and assist in understanding the potential future movements in the XAUUSD (Gold) market.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. We are not SEBI registered advisors.
GDX - Gold Miners ETF: Inverse Head & shouldersGold prices have surged to unprecedented levels in light of recent trade policy changes. The announcement by US President Donald Trump regarding a new 25% tariff on essential imports such as cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals has created a wave of uncertainty among investors. This risk-off sentiment has driven many to seek refuge in safe-haven assets like gold.
Nevertheless, this upward momentum may encounter challenges if a trade agreement with China comes to fruition. A successful deal could alleviate global trade tensions, leading to a decrease in gold demand and possibly resulting in selling pressure.
However sustained high bullion prices could prove to be a significant advantage for gold miners. The GDX ETF is showing a persistent inverse head and shoulders pattern, indicating potential for further gains.
Canadian Venture index --- Inverse head & shouldersGold has reached unprecedented heights, approaching the $3000 mark—a prediction we made with precision. Now is the moment to turn our attention to silver and the mining sector.
To start, let's examine the Canadian venture index, which is displaying a promising inverse head and shoulders pattern. I am confident that the logarithmic projection will be achieved without much difficulty.
Roughly another $50 and we are at $3000The recent performance of TVC:GOLD has been spectacular. It seems, the precious metal can't find a ceiling. MARKETSCOM:GOLD has a good chance of travelling towards the psychological 3000 mark.
Let's dig in!
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Gas Prices Catch Fire: 25-Month High Reached Amid Winter's FuryNatural gas futures have reached a 25-month high, marking a significant price increase.
This surge is attributed to two primary factors:
1. Cold Weather: Unusually cold temperatures in key regions have increased demand for natural gas, as it is a primary source of heating.
2. Supply Disruptions: Issues in natural gas production or distribution have tightened supply, further driving up prices.
◉ Technical Observations
● After breaking out of the Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern, the price soared to $4.350.
● Subsequently, the price faced a significant pullback to around the $3.30 mark.
● However, the price rebounded from this point and is now at a 25-month high, with expectations for continued growth.
$BTC have a gold fractal!Please pay attention to the Bitcoin chart and the Gold fractal! It's incredible, but it looks very similar. The level of correlation is quite high! Similar formation of tops, bottoms, breakout without retest and then now breakout phase with retest. The retest was successful. Very soon there will be the strongest growth! Good luck!
Horban Brothers!
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher within its range, finding support at the 5-day moving average. While the daily buy signal remains intact, the market showed some corrective movement following yesterday’s doji candle, with selling pressure continuing on the lower time frames.
As the index approaches previous highs, profit-taking is occurring, leading to a temporary consolidation phase. Market flows remain mixed, which could make it difficult for the Nasdaq to break through resistance decisively. However, as long as the index continues to hold the 5-day MA, the potential for a continued rally remains.
On the 240-minute chart, the sell signal remains active, and the market is consolidating within a range. Since the MACD and signal line remain above the zero line, further upside attempts are likely.
For now, a range-trading strategy—buying near support and selling near resistance—remains the most effective approach.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed higher, breaking above the $72 level. On the daily chart, the MACD has not yet confirmed a bullish crossover, making it too early to fully confirm an uptrend.
Although oil has formed a double-bottom pattern, market flows remain mixed, and since the MACD and signal line are converging near the zero level, a strong breakout or breakdown could occur soon. Given that the weekly MACD remains in an uptrend, buying dips remains the preferred strategy.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD and signal line have both moved above the zero line, confirming strong buying momentum. If oil breaks above the neckline at $73, a strong bullish move could follow. However, if the market fails to hold above $73, it could settle into a range-bound structure.
For now, buying on dips remains the most favorable strategy, but traders should be cautious, as today’s crude oil inventory report could introduce significant volatility.
Gold
Gold failed to break above its previous high, closing lower. The market remains in a range-bound structure, with the MACD initially turning upward but now shifting back toward the signal line.
If the MACD forms a bearish crossover, gold is likely to remain in a consolidation phase, and the next key question will be whether gold finds support at the 20-day moving average or moves even lower to test previous breakout levels.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is pulling back toward the signal line, showing signs of weakening momentum. Additionally, the market appears to be forming a triple-top (head-and-shoulders) pattern, meaning that if the neckline breaks, a further decline could follow.
Given these conditions, the best approach is to trade within the current range, favoring selling near highs while only considering long positions at key support levels.
Stay disciplined, manage risk carefully, and have a successful trading day! 🚀
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50% DISCOUNT BUY?As illustrated, Im trying to visualize a falling wedge pattern into the 50% retracement of Monday's impulsive push, for what could be a potential buy point to continue the uptrend.
Nothing to get fancy about. This is just a chart analysis based on a potential corrective pattern that could take place within the next 24 hours and into tomorrow's NY session.
It could be NY to make the strong bounce tomorrow THU with the unemployment news as catalyst.
Remember; news don't mean anything. They are just gas / power for the market to distribute and manipulate (find liquidity) ...
..
GOOD LUCK
Is History Repeating? XAUUSD on the Verge of a Breakout!📌 Description:
Gold's price action is aligning with a familiar historical pattern, hinting at a potential breakout. Let’s break it down:
1️⃣ Historical Precedent – Looking back, a similar market structure led to a significant bullish move. Recognizing these patterns can provide an edge in anticipating market behavior.
2️⃣ Recurring Structure – Once again, the chart is shaping up in a way that mirrors past price action. If history is any guide, this could be a pivotal moment.
3️⃣ Bullish Pennant Formation – The current price action suggests the formation of a bullish pennant, a classic continuation pattern. When combined with historical context, the probability of a breakout strengthens.
🔍 Fundamental Factors:
- Geopolitical Uncertainty: Rising tensions and macroeconomic instability continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
- Interest Rate Expectations: With potential shifts in central bank policies, any dovish signals could fuel further upside in XAUUSD.
- Inflation & USD Strength: Any weakness in the dollar or persistent inflation could further support gold’s bullish case.
⚡ Is this the next major move for gold? Let’s discuss! Drop your thoughts below! 👇
GOLD XAUUSD - PoVIn recent days, the price of gold has seen some increases, mainly driven by a mix of economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Inflation, still high in many parts of the world, continues to support the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, despite rising interest rates from central banks. While this slows its growth, it doesn't stop investors from seeking protection against currency devaluation. Added to this are concerns about a potential global recession, which further pushes investors toward safe assets like gold. The U.S. dollar, which had previously driven gold lower, is now showing signs of weakness, especially due to expectations of a slowdown in Federal Reserve policy, which could make gold more attractive. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the war in Ukraine and its global implications, continue to create uncertainties that drive up demand for gold. Looking ahead, the expectation is that the price of gold could continue to rise if economic and geopolitical uncertainty persists. Any slowdown in the Fed's aggressive policy could favor gold’s appreciation, as the precious metal becomes more appealing in a lower interest rate environment. However, if inflation were to significantly decrease or central banks continue raising rates, gold's upward movement could slow, but the safe-haven demand could still help maintain its value.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-19-25: GAP Reversal Counter-trendToday's pattern suggests a morning GAP will lead to a price reversal in a counter-trend type of mode.
I read this as a potential that price will initially struggle to find a trend. Eventually, when it does identify a trend mode, I believe that trend will strengthen into a reversal of the current upward price trend.
Normally, Counter-trend patterns invert. So, what I would have expected as an uptrend would turn into a downtrend. But, the markets have moved into a very consolidated price channel near recent highs and volume has diminished strongly.
Because of this type of setup, I believe an aggressive breakaway or breakdown price move is pending.
Price will attempt to make a move - and when it does, it should be explosive.
My continued research, which I share with you in this video, continues to suggest price will stall out and revert downward.
We'll see how things play out over the next few days.
Gold and Silver are back near recent all-time highs. Stay cautious of a breakdown in metals associated with a breakdown in the SPY/QQQ.
BTCUSD is still struggling to make a move. As you will see, I believe the dominant trend is to the downside right now.
In short, we are standing at the edge of a cliff regarding price action. At this point, we either grow wings and soar higher or fall downward - hoping for a soft landing.
Buckle up.
Get some.
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XAUUSD: 19/2Gold technical analysis
Daily resistance 2950-3000, support below 2852
Four-hour resistance 2950, support below 2896
Gold operation suggestions: Gold stabilized at 2890 yesterday and ushered in a strong unilateral rise. The Asian and European sessions slightly retreated and stabilized at 2892 and quickly bottomed out and rebounded. The European session continued to break through the 2907 mark and continued to be strong. The US bulls further raised their heads and stood on the 2920 mark and accelerated to break through 2936 and closed strongly at almost the highest point of the day.
From the current 4-hour trend, the support below is around 2869, and the short-term pressure above is around 2950. Overall, rely on this range to keep selling high and buying low. Patiently wait for key points to enter the market
BUY:2930near SL:2925
BUY:2920near SL:2915
XAU/USD : Time for BUY? Let's see! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the 1-hour gold chart, we can see that, as expected, gold broke above the $2,902.5 resistance yesterday and continued its bullish movement, successfully hitting the next targets at $2,914 and $2,919!
I hope you made the most of this analysis! 🚀
The next potential move depends on whether gold stabilizes above $2,914. If it does, we could see further growth toward $2,922 and $2,928 as the next upside targets.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban