Gold To The Basement? Week Ahead with Bearish Bias by PhoenixFX🌟 Welcome to Phoenix FX’s Intraday Pulse! 🌟
Hello, Phoenix FX family! 👋 I’m thrilled you’ve joined us for today’s TradingView chart breakdown. Our focus? Intraday opportunities—spotting those high-probability setups you can enter, manage, and leave to run whilst you concentrate on the things you love doing.
Here’s what you’ll find in this analysis:
Key Levels & Zones: Support, resistance, and Fair Value Gaps that matter on the smaller timeframes.
Price-Action Clues: Exact candlestick patterns and momentum signals to watch for your next entry.
Trade Triggers & Targets: Clear criteria for when to get in, where to take profits, and how to manage your risk.
Whether you’re hunting quick scalps or tactical swing moves, our goal is simple: help you trade with confidence, clarity, and community support. Got a different view or a fresh idea? Drop it in the comments—after all, “each one, teach one.” 😉
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Donald Trump’s presidency continues to exert outsized influence on gold through three main channels: trade policy uncertainty, fiscal stimulus (and resulting deficits), and shifts in safe-haven demand. Here’s how each factor has played out—and what it could mean for gold going forward:
1. Trade-War Uncertainty
What’s Happening: The Trump administration’s aggressive use of tariffs—including recent 25% duties on goods from Japan and South Korea—has periodically roiled markets and driven investors into gold as a safe haven. On July 7, gold pared losses after tariff news, as traders sought refuge despite a firm dollar.
Looking Ahead: If further tariff escalations or retaliations emerge, expect renewed spikes in gold. Conversely, any de-escalation or trade-deal breakthroughs could sap that safe-haven bid.
2. Fiscal Stimulus & Deficits
What’s Happening: Senate Republicans recently passed a Trump-backed tax‐and‐spending package projected to add $3.3 trillion to the U.S. deficit. Larger deficits—especially when financed by the Fed—tend to stoke inflation expectations, which bolsters gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge.
Looking Ahead: Continued large-scale stimulus or fresh tax cuts without offsetting revenue measures could keep real yields low (or negative), a classic tailwind for gold.
3. Safe-Haven Flows & Investor Positioning
What’s Happening: Despite peaking at record highs earlier this year, gold remains up roughly 30% since November, driven largely by investor fears around Trump’s policy unpredictability and geopolitical tensions.
Looking Ahead: Should Trump-era uncertainty persist—whether around trade, foreign policy, or domestic turmoil—gold is likely to retain its status as a portfolio diversifier and crisis hedge. A sustained drop in U.S. real rates or fresh bouts of market volatility would reinforce that trend.
🎯 Outlook Summary
Bullish Drivers: Ongoing trade-war rhetoric, larger deficits, and any new geopolitical flashpoints.
Bearish Risks: Clear resolution of major trade disputes, a pivot by the Fed toward earlier rate cuts (reducing real‐rate support for gold), or diminished investor fear.
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PhoenixFX price action analysis based on the Daily time frame
🔴 Primary Resistance (Daily)
Zone: $3,348 – $3,400
Why It Matters:
Multiple daily closes have stalled here, leaving a clear Fair-Value Gap (dashed purple). Sellers are likely to defend this range until we see a decisive daily close above $3,400.
📉 Bearish Bias – Short Setups
Short at Resistance
Entry: Bearish daily reversal candle (engulfing, pin-bar) in $3,348–$3,400
Targets:
TP1: $3,290 (50% of Primary Buy Zone)
TP2: $3,250 (Primary Buy Zone low)
TP3: $3,172 (Secondary Buy Zone high)
Stop-Loss: Above $3,420
Breakdown Short
Trigger: Daily close below $3,250 (Primary Buy Zone low)
Entry: On the open of the next daily candle after close below $3,250
Targets:
TP1: $3,172 (Secondary Buy Zone)
TP2: $3,026 (Final Buy Zone 50% level)
Stop-Loss: Above $3,290
🔵 Potential Long Opportunities
Defensive Long (Aggressive)
Entry: Bullish daily rejection candle in $3,250–$3,290
Targets:
TP1: $3,348 (short-term resistance)
TP2: $3,400 (key resistance)
Stop-Loss: Below $3,230
Trend-Reversal Long (Ultra-Conservative)
Trigger: Daily close above $3,400
Entry: Open of the next daily candle after the close above $3,400
Targets:
TP1: $3,450
TP2: $3,500+
Stop-Loss: Below $3,360
📊 Week-Ahead Scenarios
Bearish Scenario (High Probability):
Price remains capped under $3,400.
Look for a bearish signal in $3,348–$3,400 to initiate shorts.
A break below $3,250 extends the move into deeper demand zones ($3,172 → $3,026).
Bullish Counter-Trend (Lower Probability):
Strong daily rejection candle in $3,250–$3,290 could spark a relief rally.
Short-term longs can target $3,348 and $3,400—ideal for quick swing trades.
Only a sustained daily close above $3,400 shifts the bias back to the upside.
Just a Heads-Up:
This is my take on the charts—not gospel, not financial advice, and definitely not a crystal ball 🔮.
Trading is part skill, part patience, and part “what just happened?” 😅
We all see things a little differently, and that’s the beauty of it. So if you’ve got a hot take, wild theory, or just want to drop some chart wisdom—hit the comments!
Let’s grow, learn, and laugh through the madness together. 🚀📈
Each one, teach one.
— Phoenix FX Team 🔥🦅
Commodities
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 3397 (Wave 3).Dear colleagues, my previous forecast remains valid, but I have decided to update it.
At the moment, I still think that wave “3” of the medium order continues its upward movement.
At the moment, I think that the small correction in wave “2” is ending and we will see a continuation of the trend. I see the resistance area of 3397.94 as the target. The main thing is to overcome the local level of the small wave “1” at 3366.37.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
USOIL BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 68.26
Target Level: 63.78
Stop Loss: 71.23
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 9h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Crude Oil Eyes 3-Year Resistance Once AgainWTI has rebounded cleanly from the neckline of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern—formed ahead of the June Middle East conflict—establishing a strong support zone above $63.40.
Prices are currently trading above $67. A sustained hold above this level could target $69 and $72, aligning with the upper edge of the 3-year declining channel. A confirmed breakout above $72 may extend gains toward $78, $80, $84, and $88 respectively.
On the downside, a close below $63.80 may trigger renewed selling pressure toward $60, $58, and $56—within the mid-zone of the broader down trending channel.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
First Drop to 3307–3289, Then Buy for the Next UptrendOur system has identified a strong short signal across short-term, medium-term, and long-term timeframes as of July 3, 2025, with confidence levels above 89%. All durations are aligned, indicating a synchronized momentum shift.
Entry Point : 3354.43
Short-Term TP : 3334.30
Medium-Term TP : 3320.89
Long-Term TP : 3307.47~ 3289
📉 Based on the current market structure and signal convergence, TeconLab expects XAUUSD to drop into the 3307–3289 range, where a potential reversal zone is likely to form.
🛡️ Safest Entry for Buy: The 3289 level is considered the most favorable area for entering long positions after the expected correction completes.
📈 After reaching this zone, our system anticipates a new uptrend to begin, offering a fresh opportunity for upside movement.
The TP Zigzag path displayed on the chart outlines the projected decline with target steps, preparing for a potential bullish reversal afterward.
GOLD is in bearish conditions, pressured by aggressive tariffsOn Wednesday (July 9) in the Asian market, the spot OANDA:XAUUSD suddenly fell sharply in the short term, and the gold price just fell below 3,290 USD / ounce.
Although US President Trump announced that the first tariff letters had been sent to some US trading partners, the gold price fell below 3,290 USD / ounce due to the weakening demand for safe-haven gold. Trump postponed the tariff deadline to August 1, easing trade tensions.
The recovery in the dollar TVC:DXY and rising US Treasury yields also weighed on gold, sending prices sharply lower after hitting a high of $3,345 an ounce.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note TVC:US10Y rose to its highest in more than two weeks, making gold, which does not pay interest, less attractive as an investment.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to 4.415%. The US real yield also rose 4 basis points to 2.073%.
TVC:DXY , which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of currencies, rose 0.20% to 97.70. The rise in the Dollar Index means that gold priced in dollars has become less attractive because they are inversely correlated.
Japan and South Korea said on Tuesday they would try to speed up trade talks with the United States in a bid to soften President Donald Trump's stance on new tariffs set to take effect on August 1.
But optimism about a trade deal boosted market risk appetite, limiting gold's upside.
Traders are awaiting the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting on Wednesday, followed by data on initial jobless claims for the week ended July 5.
Investors now expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points before the end of the year, starting in October.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold fell below the 3,300USD whole price point and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, which are the initial conditions for gold prices to have a prospect for a bearish trend.
Currently, with the position below 3,300USD, gold may continue to decline with the next target around 3,246USD in the short term, more than the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level.
The current resistances of gold prices are the pressure from the EMA21 line, followed by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement. These are also the resistance positions that readers paid attention to in the previous issue.
In addition, the RSI is pointing down from 50, currently 50 is considered the nearest resistance and the fact that the RSI is pointing down is quite far from the oversold zone, indicating that there is still room for a decline ahead.
During the day, although the trend is not yet completely clear, gold is showing conditions that are more inclined towards a decline, along with that, the notable positions will be listed as follows.
Support: 3,292 - 3,246 USD
Resistance: 3,300 - 3,340 - 3,350 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3346 - 3344⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3350
→Take Profit 1 3338
↨
→Take Profit 2 3332
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3245 - 3247⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3241
→Take Profit 1 3253
↨
→Take Profit 2 3259
Trump "stirred up" GOLD recovery but limited by USD appreciationSpot CAPITALCOM:GOLD has rebounded strongly from yesterday's lows, currently trading around $3,333/oz. The main reason is that US President Trump announced a 25% tariff on Japan and South Korea starting August 1, which boosted safe-haven demand. However, the strengthening US Dollar has also limited the broader recovery in gold prices.
On Monday local time, US President Trump sent letters to 14 countries including Japan, South Korea and South Africa threatening to impose tariffs. He then signed an executive order to extend the suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" until August 1.
Trump announced that he would impose a 25% tariff on imports from Japan and South Korea, effective August 1. In a letter to the leaders of Japan and South Korea, Trump said the tariffs would be imposed on August 1 because the two countries' trade relationship with the United States is "very unfair".
This is his first letter to major trading partners ahead of the July 9 deadline to reach a trade deal.
Trump said that despite the large trade deficits between the United States and South Korea and Japan, the United States has decided to continue to cooperate with the two countries. However, the United States has decided to move forward on the premise of more balanced and fair trade. Trump said that the trade deficit has posed a major threat to the US economy and even national security, so changes are needed. Starting August 1, 2025, the United States will impose a 25% tariff on all products from South Korea and Japan, regardless of the different tariffs by industry.
Additionally, any attempt to circumvent tariffs by shipping through a third country will also be subject to higher tariffs.
Trump said companies that choose to build factories or manufacture products in the United States will not have to pay the tariffs. Additionally, if South Korea and Japan decide to increase tariffs on the United States, the United States will impose additional tariffs of the same size on top of the current 25% tariff.
Official data released by the People's Bank of China on Monday showed that China's central bank increased its gold reserves in June, marking the eighth consecutive month of increase.
Bank of America said that central banks around the world are buying gold to diversify their foreign exchange reserves, thereby reducing their dependence on the US dollar and protecting against inflation and economic instability, and the trend is expected to continue.
Technical Outlook Analysis CAPITALCOM:GOLD
On the daily chart, gold has recovered from a key technical confluence area, which is the closest support area to note for readers in the weekly publication. The area from $3,292 – $3,300 is the confluence of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement with the lower edge of the long-term rising price channel. However, the temporary recovery is being limited by the EMA21, the current closest resistance, followed by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level.
The recovery momentum is significant, but for gold to have enough technical bullish conditions, it needs to take price action above the EMA21, with a bullish breakout of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level then the prospect of a new bullish cycle will be opened.
If gold breaks above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level it will have the next target at the raw price point of $3,400 followed by horizontal resistance at $3,430.
During the day, the current gold price should still be assessed as a sideways accumulation trend, when the Relative Strength Index RSI sticks around 50, showing the market's hesitant sentiment.
A strong enough fundamental impact to change the structure will give a more specific technical trend in the coming time, and the notable positions will be listed as follows.
Support: 3,300 - 3,292 USD
Resistance: 3,350 - 3,371 - 3,400 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3366 - 3364⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3370
→Take Profit 1 3358
↨
→Take Profit 2 3352
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3294 - 3296⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3290
→Take Profit 1 3302
↨
→Take Profit 2 3308
Gold is at critical support for bullsGold is at a key trend line of support. Most of the world is watching the 3285 level near term, and a break of this level would put the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 3248 back in view. A break of this level would target the 3120 level once again. Bulls are nervous, but this key support will be watched carefully into the next trading session.
Gold will continue to fall today.Gold continued to fall in the US market after hitting a high on Tuesday and hit a recent low. Currently, there is a fierce competition between long and short positions. The repeated swings in the US tariff policy have caused fluctuations in risk aversion sentiment, and the probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates above 95% in July has supported the US dollar. Technically, we need to focus on the key support of 3260 and the strong resistance range of 3320 above. The hourly chart shows that the short-term moving average diverges downward, and the K-line is under pressure, showing short-term fatigue, suggesting that there is still a need for a correction today.
Thank you for your likes and support!
I will continue to share my views.
I wish you a smooth trading!
GOLD Long Inside The Range! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD is stuck in a local
Range while still trading
In a strong long-term uptrend
So we think that this is an
Accumulation before the
Next leg up and as we are
Bullish biased we will be
Expecting a retest and a
Rebound from the horizontal
Support below around 3259$
With the target of retesting
The horizontal resistance
Above around 3354$
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
XAU/USD) bearish Trand analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of (XAU/USD) on the 3-hour timeframe, projecting further downside after rejection from a resistance zone aligned with a descending trendline.
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Analysis Summary
Trend Bias: Bearish
Current Price: ~$3,301.96
Structure: Price is respecting a descending channel, with multiple rejections from the upper boundary and key resistance zone.
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Key Technical Insights
1. Resistance Zone & Downtrend Line:
Price was rejected from a resistance block near the EMA 200 (~$3,331) and descending trendline.
This level has repeatedly triggered strong downside moves (highlighted with red arrows).
2. EMA 200 Reaction:
The EMA 200 at $3,331.10 is acting as dynamic resistance.
Each time price reaches or crosses above this line, selling pressure increases.
3. Bearish Price Projection:
After recent rejection, the chart anticipates a pullback to the support zone between $3,248.26 and $3,245.71.
A deeper drop toward $3,159.13 is projected as a next major target, consistent with previous price moves.
4. RSI Indicator:
RSI at 40.24 suggests bearish momentum is still in play but not yet oversold—indicating room for more downside.
---
Bearish Trade Idea
Element Level / Description
Entry Zone Below resistance: $3,310–$3,320
Target 1 $3,248.26–$3,245.71 (support zone)
Target 2 $3,159.13 (channel base / next support)
Stop-Loss Above $3,335 (above resistance zone)
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Risk Considerations
Fundamental catalysts: Gold is sensitive to USD strength, interest rate decisions, and macroeconomic data.
Invalidation: A strong breakout and close above the descending trendline and EMA 200 would negate the bearish outlook.
---
Summary
This analysis outlines a bearish setup for XAU/USD, supported by trendline resistance, EMA rejection, and RSI momentum. If current structure holds, a move toward the $3,245 and $3,159 levels is likely.
Please support boost 🚀 this analysis)
Crude oil shock trend direction
💡Message Strategy
During the European trading session on Monday, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange recovered the previous losses and rebounded to around $67.50 per barrel. Although OPEC+ confirmed that the increase in oil production in August will be higher than expected, oil prices still rebounded.
From the daily chart level, the medium-term trend of crude oil fluctuated upward and tested around 78. The K-line closed with a large real negative line, which has not yet destroyed the moving average system and is still supported. The medium-term objective upward trend remains unchanged. However, from the perspective of momentum, the MACD indicator crosses downward above the zero axis, indicating that the bullish momentum is weakening. It is expected that the medium-term trend of crude oil will fall into a high-level oscillating upward pattern.
📊Technical aspects
The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil failed to continue to hit a new low and showed a rebound rhythm. The oil price crossed the moving average system, and the short-term objective trend entered a transition period. From the perspective of momentum, the MACD indicator crossed the zero axis, and the red column indicated that the bullish momentum was sufficient. At present, the price is running in a wide range, with a range of 65.50-67.80. It is expected that the trend of crude oil will repeatedly test the upper edge of the range within the range.
💰Strategy Package
Long Position:67.00-67.50,SL:65.50,Target:70.00
MR. COPPER GOES FUN. WITH DONALD TRUMP — IT IS A BULL RUNCopper prices in 2025 are up about 27 percent year-to-date, driven by a complex interplay of technical and fundamental factors, with geopolitical events such as the Trump administration's tariff policies and the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East having a significant impact.
Fundamental Outlook:
The main driver of copper prices in 2025 is the ongoing global surge in demand driven by the transition to clean energy. Copper is essential for electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy infrastructure, and grid upgrades, all of which require extensive use of copper due to its superior electrical conductivity.
For example, EVs use about 2-4 times more copper than traditional vehicles, and renewable installations such as wind turbines contain several tons of copper each. This structural growth in demand underpins the optimistic outlook for copper in the medium to long term.
On the supply side, however, copper production is growing. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts a global copper surplus of 289,000 tonnes in 2025, more than double the 2024 surplus. This surplus is driven by rising production, particularly from new or expanded operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mongolia, Russia and elsewhere.
Capacity increases in these regions, coupled with smelter growth, could contribute to a supply glut despite strong demand.
Conversely, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could disrupt bauxite and alumina supply chains, a region that is a strategically important supplier of raw materials.
Impact of Trump Tariffs:
The Trump administration’s threats and actions to impose tariffs on U.S. copper imports have added volatility and complexity to the market. The tariff announcement triggered a sharp sell-off in early April 2025 as concerns about the impact on US manufactured demand and global trade flows grew. London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices fell to one-month lows following China’s retaliatory tariffs, before partially recovering after some tariff exemptions and reductions were announced.
The tariffs also distorted physical supply chains. Traders rushed to deliver copper to the US ahead of the tariffs, reducing copper availability in other regions such as China. This arbitrage resulted in a significant widening of the price differential between US CME copper contracts and LME copper prices, with US prices trading at a premium of over 10% to London. This premium reflects the tariff risk embedded in the US copper price and expectations of temporary domestic market tensions.
Technical Outlook:
Technically, copper prices have shown resilience despite the tariff shocks. Copper prices sold off after peaking in late March 2025 before the tariffs were announced, but have since begun to recover.
Long-term trendlines and moving averages remain supportive, with the 100-week and 200-week moving averages trending higher and forming a bullish crossover earlier in the year.
Long-term copper prices are once again attacking the 18-year resistance around $4.50/lb ($10/kg) that capped the upside in 2008 and again in the 2010s and first half of the 2020s, with a 1.5x rally in the next 1 to 3 years.
The technical main chart of the COMEX December 2025 copper futures contract COMEX:HGZ2025
points to the possibility of an upside move, all the way to the $7 mark (around $15/kg) as early as H2 2025.
Conclusion
Going forward, copper prices are expected to remain volatile but supported by long-term structural demand growth, with the impact of tariffs likely to cause episodic disruptions rather than a sustained suppression of increasingly hot prices.
--
Best wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team😎
CHF is the new gold? Safe-haven flows keep pressure on USDCHFBank of America argues that the Swiss franc has reasserted itself as the true safe-haven hedge.
BofA says the trend of the CHF being used more like gold, and a hedge against problems like rising US debt, could continue. Unlike the yen, which has lost much of its appeal as a pure haven.
Technically, recent candles might indicate buyers are attempting to build a base, but there’s no decisive reversal yet.
Should price fail to reclaim the 0.8030–0.8050 region soon, the broader bearish structure could resume - possibly testing fresh lows. Meanwhile, rallies in USD/CHF may face pressure as the franc’s macro backdrop continues to attract inflows.
Gold - The clear top formation!🪙Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) just created a top formation:
🔎Analysis summary:
Over the past four months, Gold has overall been moving sideways. Following a previous blow-off rally of about +25%, this cycle is very similar to the 2008 bullish cycle. Bulls are starting to slow down which will most likely result in the creation of at least a short term top formation.
📝Levels to watch:
$3.000
🙏🏻#LONGTERMVISION
Philip - Swing Trader
Bearish reversal off 38.2% Fibonacci resistance?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 70.08
1st Support: 65.56
1st Resistance: 73.54
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish reversal off major support?The Gold (XAU/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance which is an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 3,301.09
1st Support: 3,280.12
1st Resistance: 3,343.92
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
XAUUSD NY SESSION FLOW – JULY 8→ 9 , 2025"Structure doesn’t lie. Price answered exactly where we expected it to."
Hey traders 👋
Let’s set the record straight after today’s precision bounce. We saw textbook price action across all sessions — Asia triggered the short from our 3344–3351 HTF supply, and both London and New York followed through with no hesitation, driving price down to 3287.
But here’s the key point:
🧨 3287 was just 10 pips above our clean 3286–3280 buy zone.
No mitigation. Just a front-run.
That’s what real liquidity does — grabs what it needs before the crowd gets in. Our zone is still valid… just untouched.
🔍 HTF BIAS & STRUCTURE UPDATE
📆 Daily Bias:
Structure is still bearish — lower highs, CHoCH, and soft RSI.
EMAs 5/21 are flat. No power for bulls unless 3351 breaks.
⏰ H4 Bias:
New lower high confirmed after rejection from our 3344–3351 zone.
Trend is still bearish unless we reclaim 3330+ with conviction.
Liquidity is driving movement, not news.
🕐 H1 Flow:
Bounce from 3287 = engineered reaction before real demand
Price now hovering above 3306, forming mid-structure
No trade in the middle. Let’s work the edges.
🎯 TODAY’S SNIPER ZONES
🔻 SELL ZONES
1. 3325–3330
Nearest short trap. OB + inefficiency + H1 rejection base.
If price returns, watch M15/M30 for CHoCH or BOS → entry.
2. 3344–3351
Our major HTF supply. Asia already reacted from top half.
If revisited, this zone remains the high-probability rejection zone.
3. 3380–3394
Premium OB + imbalance pocket.
Untouched zone far above — if tapped late in the week, watch for liquidity sweep → clean reversal potential.
🟢 BUY ZONES
1. 3297–3300
NY session bounce zone. Price tapped 3297 → pushed to 3306.
Still live for intraday reentry if price retests and confirms with BOS.
2. 3286–3280
Our true demand base. Price front-ran it by 10 pips — didn’t mitigate.
Still valid, still reactive. Don’t delete this zone.
3. 3263–3255
Last line of support. Deep zone — only comes into play if 3280 fails with conviction.
✅ EXECUTION REMINDERS
Price is hovering mid-range → don’t force entries
Only act if structure reacts at the edges (3325 or 3286)
3380–3394 may be a late-week trap if bulls get overconfident
📌 If this breakdown helped, hit 🚀 and drop a comment:
👉 Are you stalking 3325… or waiting for 3286 to finally wake up?
Let structure talk. You just execute.
GoldFxMinds 💭🔥
📢 Disclosure:
This analysis is based on the Trade Nation TradingView feed. I’m part of their Influencer Program and receive a monthly fee.
⚠️ Educational content only — not financial advice.
XAUUSD 15M Smart Money Sell SetupGold is showing classic Smart Money Concepts (SMC) behavior with liquidity engineering and premium mitigation.
🧠 SMC Breakdown:
Price swept buy-side liquidity above 3,355 and failed to close above the zone.
Supply zone (red) at 3,350–3,360 was previously unmitigated and now tapped.
Clean mitigation candle formed inside the supply with a sharp rejection.
Sell pressure expected from institutions looking to fill short positions after engineered liquidity.
📌 Sell Idea:
We anticipate a bearish reaction from the 3,350–3,360 zone down to the demand area.
🎯 Trade Plan:
📍 Entry Zone: 3,350–3,360 (inside red supply zone)
🛑 SL: 3,365 (above the liquidity wick)
✅ TP: 3,300 zone (green demand block)
📊 Why This Trade?
Structure is bearish from higher timeframes.
This is a sell in premium after liquidity sweep.
Imbalance left behind during the move up still unfilled.
Expecting internal CHoCH on M1/M5 to confirm entry.
🧲 Liquidity Map:
Engineered highs above 3,355 swept.
Clean equal lows sitting at 3,300 – perfect magnet for price.
⚠️ Note: Patience is key. Let price come into your zone and show a reaction before entering.
#XAUUSD #SmartMoneyConcepts #SupplyAndDemand #GoldSellSetup #SMC #TradingView #InstitutionalTrading #LiquiditySweep #PriceAction #Forex
Bullish reversal off major support?XAU/USD has bounced off the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 76.4% Fibonacci projection and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 33,295.00
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 76.4% Fibonacci projection.
Stop loss: 3,278.48
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 3,338.86
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Copper Cup & Handle Formation - Confirmed by Half-Yearly CloseIn a recent interview, Kevin Warsh, a former Member of Board of Governors Federal Reserve said: “External shocks like wars, pandemics, and supply chain disruptions may cause a spike in prices, that's not inflation. That's more like the weather. Inflation's more like the climate.
Weather refers to the day-to-day state of the atmosphere. A storm may come, but it will eventually pass.
Climate is the long-term average of weather patterns, typically measured over 30 years or more. If the underlying causes of climate change are not addressed, they are likely to affect future weather — for example, storms may become more unpredictable, occur more frequently, and intensify when they happen.
Going back to the financial markets. Have we address the underlying causes of inflation climate today? If not, then with every war or rumors of war or tariff or any unwelcome surprises.
They are likely to become even more volatile than before, some more bullish and the others more bearish.
What is the real cause of inflation climate the world is facing? Debt. At every pit stop, I will keep checking if there’s any chance that U.S. debt might start trending downward. If it does, my existing strategies would have to change. But for now, I’m maintaining these strategies. Here are some examples:
With fears of inflation still in sight, stocks have become more volatile. Since inflation hit a high of 9% in 2022, we’ve seen stock market swings widen.
With fears of inflation, bonds are under pressure. The drop in U.S. bonds wasn't triggered by the “Liberation Day” tariff announced on 2nd April alone. In fact, bonds peaked in 2020 and broke below their main uptrend support when inflation hit 9%.
With fears of inflation are also driving commodities higher — from “weather” to “weather,” so to speak. I’ve been covering gold, bitcoin, silver, and soybean oil. Today, copper looks interesting to me. Let’s dive into the technical. I find the half-year chart particularly interesting.
On this half yearly chart. We can see as the close on 30th June, copper settled firmly, closed above its $4.44 resistance that has been tested for years. This study indicates that copper could be at the beginning of an uptrend. I will be looking out for buying-on-dips opportunities whenever they arise.
What Began Well, Grew Risky — Yet Opportunity Awaits. Besides debt, there are two other key elements that may trigger fears of inflation from time to time. What do you think they are?
I would like to hear your thoughts on this.
Video version:
Mirco Copper Futures
Ticker: MHG
Minimum fluctuation:
0.0005 per pound = $1.25
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Goldman Says $4K – My Chart Says Sell💥📉 Gold Analysis – Divergences, Resistance, and a Short Bias 🪙⚠️
Hey Traders,
As promised in the latest video, here's the official chart update for Gold – and the message is clear: I'm short.
📊 What I See on the Chart
We're now well below the 3,446 resistance, with early signs of weakness showing up across multiple timeframes. I’ve laid out both the 2-Day and 4H charts in this post, and here’s what I’m tracking:
⚠️ Technical Warning Signs:
🔻 2D chart: Six bearish divergences
– RSI, Stochastic, CCI, OBV, MFI, and MACD all flashing red
📉 1D chart: Same thing — six divergences, telling me momentum is fading
⏳ 4H chart: Price action breaking trendlines, and support at 3,237 looks shaky
🚨 If that breaks, my main support zone is at $3,000 – and that’s where I believe we’re heading.
This is not just a pullback. This is the kind of confluence you can’t ignore if you trade technically.
🔁 Sentiment Shift
Back in December '22 and again earlier this year, I was long Gold – and it was the right call. But now?
📌 This chart has gone from momentum to exhaustion.
📌 I see less demand, softer momentum, and strong bearish divergence stacking across every major timeframe I watch.
🎯 Trade View
✅ I’m short Gold.
🎯 Targeting the $3,000–3,050 zone.
📉 Invalidated if we reclaim and close above $3,446 with strength.
It’s that simple. Nothing personal – just structure, divergence, and flow.
🧠 The Chart vs. The Narrative
Recently, I saw a note from Goldman Sachs forecasting $4,000 Gold. Maybe they’re right.
But I’ll be honest with you – I don’t buy the media hype.
I'm not here for the headlines.
I'm a chart guy. Always have been. Always will be.
The chart is the map to the treasure – and that’s the only thing I follow.
🧠 I cover this and the broader macro setup (Dollar, BTC, DAX, Tech, BTC.D, and more) in the full 20-min video just dropped. If you haven’t watched it yet, go catch up — it explains the logic and why this isn’t just a gold story.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈