SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-12: BaseRally In Trend ModeToday's pattern suggests the markets may attempt to identify a base and move higher (rally) off that base level.
Given the overnight price activity, I suggest the process of identifying the base level could prompt a deeper early decline in price - possibly attempting to retest 595-597 lows before finding support and attempting to rally.
As I've been warning over the past few weeks/months, I'm still seeing the Excess Phase Peak pattern playing out as a Flag Termination - rolling into a downtrend and attempting to move back towards the $480 lows as a real possibility. I've been warning and watching for the breakdown in trend - but we've not seen it yet.
Thus, we are still BULLISH until we get a confirmation of a solid breakdown. That would be a move below the 580-585 level at this point. We need to see some type of solid breakdown in price, breaking away from the FLAG setup and moving downward, before I could confidently suggest the Flag Breakdown has happened.
Gold and Silver are making a big move higher. Gold is finally starting to move back above $3400 and I believe watching Silver, Gold, & Platinum rally suggests FEAR is elevating as we move into the end of June.
I still believe Gold has a chance to rally above $4k before the end of June. We'll see if it happens.
BTCUSD is moving into a DUAL-EPP pattern. This is very interesting. Watch the video as I highlight why this could prompt a dual-stage EPP breakdown in Bitcoin over the next 20 to 50+ days.
Get some.
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Commodities
XAUUSD: Strategy and Analysis for June 12Gold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance: 3400-3420, support: 3310
Four-hour chart resistance: 3400, support: 3325
One-hour chart resistance: 3385, support: 3340.
Spot gold soared after the release of CPI as investors responded to optimistic inflation data. Trump's interest rate cut speech restored the confidence of gold bulls, but with the strong pressure of 3380 above, the market fell again, and the frequency of gold long and short switching accelerated, verifying the daily level of shock. From a technical point of view, although the daily line has not risen continuously, there is a very obvious feature of the daily cycle, that is, the middle track of Bollinger has not broken, and multiple attempts have not changed this technical point. This is the support point for the short-term retracement and the defense point for the long-term rise. If the NY market stands firm at 3380, it is expected to rise to the 3410 US dollar line. The short-term key support position below is around 3345, and it will be short-term bearish only after it falls below. Personally, I suggest that you give priority to buying in the NY market.
Buy: 3380near SL:3375
Buy: 3345near SL:3340
GOLD: Short Signal Explained
GOLD
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell GOLD
Entry - 3384.7
Stop - 3393.2
Take - 3368.8
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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How Gold Could Be Affected by Possible Iran Conflict? Gold begins the new day on a bullish note following escalating developments in the Middle East. Yesterday, markets were focused on the US–China deal. Although an agreement was reached, tariffs but overall trade tensions remain elevated. Combined with the lower-than-expected core CPI, gold mostly moved sideways, apart from intraday noise. However, this could change in the days ahead.
US–Iran nuclear negotiations appear to be stalling. A new round of talks is scheduled for Sunday, June 15. The negative newsflow escalated with Iran’s defense minister warned that US bases in the region could be targeted if conflict breaks out. US ordered all non-essential personnel to evacuate and approved the voluntary departure of military family members from the region. Simultaneously, reports surfaced that "Israel is ready to strike Iran."
The negative newsflow continued today. The International Atomic Energy Agency passed a resolution declaring Iran non-compliant with its international obligations. In retaliation, Iran announced it would build a new uranium enrichment facility at a hidden and secure location and unveiled plans for new military drills.
The timing of this escalation raises the risk of direct conflict. Netanyahu’s government is facing collapse, with the possibility of new elections looming. At the same time, Iran is nearing nuclear weapons capability. While Trump is more openly supportive of Israel than Biden, he is reluctant to involve the US in any direct or indirect conflict. This dynamic raises the chances of an Israeli strike on Iran.
Adding to the tension is the upcoming July 9 deadline for tariffs. Trump intends to send unilateral tariff agreements to trade partners with a “take it or leave it” approach. This could sharply increase trade tensions and further support gold prices.
Today's news flow is heavily bullish for gold, and the technical outlook aligns with it. The triangle formation has broken, and gold has retested the upper boundary, gaining momentum from that level. If current risk levels remain elevated, especially if multiple strikes on Iran occur, a medium-term move above 3600 could begin.
Despite the strong bullish setup, we are in a market where sentiment can shift in minutes, with major news emerging almost daily. In this environment, it's crucial to define key levels and indicators for risk management. At the moment, the 50-day EMA appears to be holding well as a support level. This moving average could be the final line that determines the medium-term direction for gold. If it breaks, the bullish outlook may no longer be valid.
WTI OIL Massive rejection on the 1D MA200.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a Channel Down for over a year now and today its latest Bullish Leg hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since February 03 2025.
Unless we see a sustainable structured rise that turns it into a Support, the long-term bearish trend should prevail, and the market has already reacted to this with a strong rejection.
With the 1D RSI almost overbought (>70.00), being consistent with the last 3 major tops, we expect a gradual decline towards Support 1, as it happened on the January - February 2025 Bearish Leg.
Our Target is just above it at $55.50.
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Long profit-taking,how to position gold before unemployment data📰 Impact of news:
1. Pay attention to the initial unemployment claims data
📈 Market analysis:
After being pulled down, the gold price quickly rebounded to around 3385, and the RSI showed a V-shaped reversal. It is not recommended to chase the rise at present. In the short term, pay attention to the upper resistance area of 3385-3395. If the gold price effectively breaks through this resistance area, it is expected to touch the 3400-3410 line. On the contrary, it encounters resistance and pressure at the 3385-3395 line, and may retreat to the 3370-3360 line in the short term.
🏅 Trading strategies:
SELL 3385-3395
TP 3370-3360
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
Dollar - WE HIT OUR FIRST TARGET TODAY!!!Amazing work on the dollar for about a month of analysis and finally hitting our target. Its taken its sweet time to drift lower but we have the bigger move today which clipped our target.
Follow for more updates on dollar and what im looking to trade.
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Go back and look at tall the 2 min clips for the last month. We have been in sync all this time
GOLD | Bullish Momentum Holds Above 3376, Eyes on 3404 and 3431GOLD | OVERVIEW
Gold remains in bullish momentum following the CPI result of 2.4%, which came in below expectations. This increases the likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed, providing strong support for gold.
As long as the price trades above 3376 and 3351, the bullish trend is expected to continue toward 3404. A confirmed stabilization above 3404 could open the path toward 3431.
Bearish Correction till 3376 available.
Pivot: 3376
Resistance Lines: 3404, 3431
Support Lines: 3366, 3347
Gold (XAUUSD) Eyes 3,330 Zone as Safe-Haven Demand Builds!!Hey Traders, In today’s trading session, we’re keeping a close watch on XAUUSD for a potential buying opportunity around the 3,330 zone. Gold continues to trade within a strong uptrend, and is currently undergoing a healthy correction, bringing it near a key support/resistance level that could act as a springboard for the next leg higher.
From a fundamental perspective, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to the evacuation of diplomatic personnel and increasing concerns of potential military escalation. As uncertainty grows, safe-haven assets like gold tend to attract stronger demand from investors seeking protection against volatility and risk.
If the situation deteriorates further, we could see a surge in gold prices as market participants hedge against geopolitical instability.
Trade safe,
Joe
Crude Oil Eyes 65.40 Support Amid Middle East Uncertainty!!Hey Traders,
In today’s trading session, we’re closely monitoring USOIL for a potential buying opportunity around the 65.40 zone. The commodity remains in an overall uptrend, and is currently undergoing a corrective phase, approaching a key support/resistance area near 65.40. This level aligns well with the broader trend structure and may offer a favorable risk-to-reward setup.
On the fundamental side, geopolitical tensions are on the rise. Reports indicate that U.S. embassy personnel are being evacuated from parts of the Middle East amid growing regional instability. Allegedly, Israel is preparing for potential military action against Iran should nuclear deal talks collapse.
If these tensions escalate further into military conflict, oil prices could spike in response to the heightened risk to regional supply chains.
Trade safe,
Joe
Gold Extends Gains, Eyes 3400📊 Market Overview
• Following softer-than-expected US CPI data, gold surged strongly.
• This morning, gold touched a high of 3377 before pulling back slightly to around 3372.
• A weaker USD and growing expectations of Fed rate cuts remain key bullish drivers.
📉 Technical Analysis
• Key Resistance: $3,380 – $3,400
• Nearest Support: $3,325 – $3,310
• EMA09: Price remains above EMA09, signaling a short-term uptrend.
• Candlestick & Momentum: Gold has broken out of a consolidation zone with strong momentum, though short-term overbought signals are emerging.
📌 Outlook
Gold may enter a mild pullback within the 3370–3380 zone before finding fresh momentum from upcoming Fed signals or macro data. Caution is advised when trading near major resistance.
💡 Trading Strategy
🔻 SELL XAU/USD at: 3375–3377
🎯 TP: 3355
❌ SL: 3385
🔺 BUY XAU/USD at: 3325–3330
🎯 TP: 3350
❌ SL: 3315
GOLD BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
GOLD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,359.42
Target Level: 3,293.59
Stop Loss: 3,403.13
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 9h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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TOP 10 Stats of the Current Gold Bull Market in 2025 and Outlook📊 Top 10 Stats of the Current Gold Bull Market (2025)
1. 🥇 Gold price per ounce: Around $3,338–$3,364, with a recent all-time high above $3,500 in April 2025
2. 📈 Year-to-date gain: About +29% in 2025 so far, after a +30% gain in 2024
3. 🏦 Central bank buying: More than 1,000 tonnes bought for the fourth straight year, reserves near record levels
4. 🔒 Inflation hedge: Strong inverse correlation with real yields; high demand driven by inflation and geopolitical worries
5. 📊 Gold vs S&P 500: Both reached new highs together; gold is up about 27% YTD while the S&P 500 is up only around 2%
6. 💍 Jewellery demand: Global gold jewelry demand is down about 9% in 2024, projected to drop another 16% in 2025 due to high prices
7. ⚖️ Gold-to-silver ratio: Now around 94, down from a peak of 105—showing silver is regaining ground
8. 🏅 Record closes: More than 40 record daily closes for gold in 2025, prices consolidating around $3,290–$3,400
9. 🏛️ Technical breakout: Broke out of a 13-year “cup-and-handle” technical pattern in March 2024
10. 🔮 2025 forecasts: Predictions range from $3,600–$4,000 by Q2 2026, with some expecting as high as $4,500 if risks rise
________________________________________
🔄 How This Gold Bull Market Compares to Past Bull Markets
1️⃣ 1968–1980 Super Bull
• 🕰️ Gold climbed from ~$35 to ~$850, a massive 2,330% gain over 12 years
• 🔥 Driven by double-digit inflation, end of the gold standard, and political turmoil
• ⚠️ Huge corrections, including a nearly 45% drop in 1974–76, but rapid rebounds
2️⃣ 1999–2008 Bull Market
• 💹 Gold surged from ~$252 to ~$1,023 (about +305%) in 9 years
• 🚀 Fueled by the commodities supercycle and concerns about global imbalances
• 📉 Big correction during the 2008 financial crisis, but gold rebounded fast
3️⃣ 2018–2025 (Current Cycle)
• ⏳ Gold broke out in 2024 from a 13-year sideways base
• 💥 Up nearly 200% from the 2018 lows to over $3,500
• 🏦 Central banks are the biggest buyers, unlike earlier cycles
• 🛡️ Corrections have been milder—2022 saw only a 20% drop
• 🏃♂️ Fast recovery: new highs reached within months, not years
________________________________________
📊 Quick Comparison Table
Metric 1968–80 Super Bull 1999–2008 Bull 2018–2025 Current
🚀 Total Gain ~2,330% ~305% ~200% so far
⏲️ Length 12 years 9 years 7 years so far
💔 Biggest Drawdown –45% (1974–76) –30% (2008) –20% (2022)
🏦 Central Bank Role Moderate Emerging Dominant
📉 Correction Speed Years to recover 4 years Months
🏛️ Technical Pattern Secular breakout Multiple peaks Broke 13-yr base
________________________________________
🧭 What Makes the Current Bull Market Unique
• 🏦 Central banks are setting the pace with record-breaking demand
• 🩹 Corrections are less severe and recoveries are quicker
• 📈 Gold is rallying alongside stocks, which is rare historically
• 🏛️ The breakout from a 13-year consolidation signals strong structural support
• 🔮 Major forecasts predict further highs through 2026, suggesting this may become one of the strongest cycles ever
XAUUSD Breakout Brewing -- Squeeze Setup in Play📆 June 12, 2025 | ⏱ 4H Chart Analysis
Gold (XAUUSD) is pressing against a key trendline resistance while holding a clean, ascending trendline from early March — forming a classic triangle squeeze.
🔍 Technical Breakdown:
The long-term bullish trendline has been respected three times, with each touch followed by strong buying interest (see orange circles).
Current price action is compressing between this trendline and descending resistance, tightening toward a potential breakout zone.
Two likely outcomes on the table:
🔺 Bullish Scenario: A confirmed breakout above $3,385 could fuel a rally toward $3,500–$3,520, especially if momentum accelerates.
🔻 Bearish Scenario: Breakdown below $3,260 risks deeper correction toward the $3,000 psychological level, aligning with prior demand zones.
📊 Indicators Insight:
EMA(15) & EMA(60) have flattened → signaling potential volatility expansion ahead.
Volume is building slightly, adding weight to a coming move.
=================================================================
⚖️ Trade Idea (Not Financial Advice)
🟢 Buy on breakout above 3,385, Target: 3,500+
🔴 Sell on breakdown below 3,260, Target: 3,000
📌 Wait for confirmation and avoid chasing within the squeeze range.
💬 What's your take — will gold break through or bounce back?
📌 Follow for consistent multi-timeframe setups across Gold, Silver, and FX majors — 2–3 times weekly.
#XAUUSD #Gold #TechnicalAnalysis #BreakoutSetup #Forex #EMA #SqueezePlay #TrianglePattern #tradingview #MJTrading
USOIL Will Go Higher From Support! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 67.337.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 69.433 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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CORN.c CORN.c Short Trade Plan (Daily Timeframe)
📍 Trade Setup
Direction: Short
Entry: Instant / Current Market Price (CMP)
Stop Loss (SL): 465.97
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 403.36 (≈ 1:1 Risk-Reward)
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 387.00 (≈ 1:1.5 Risk-Reward)
📊 Technical Justification
Trend: Downtrend confirmed – price forming Lower Highs and Lower Lows.
Candle Pattern: Bearish shooting star near resistance – strong rejection signal.
🌽 Top 3 Bearish Fundamental Reasons
Favorable U.S. Weather Conditions
→ Ideal for crop growth → higher yield expectations → bearish pressure.
Weak Global Export Demand
→ Sluggish corn exports (e.g., China slowdown) → less global demand for U.S. corn.
Strong U.S. Dollar
→ Makes U.S. corn more expensive internationally → lowers export competitiveness.
🎯 Risk Management & Execution Plan
Risk-Reward (TP1): ~1:1
Risk-Reward (TP2): ~1:1.5
📌 Once TP1 is hit:
✅ Move SL to Entry (Breakeven) to protect capital and ride remaining position to TP2.
XAG/USD - Channel Breakout (11.06.2025) The XAG/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a CHannel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 3587
2nd Support – 3555
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Silver Tests Key Long-Term ResistanceSilver is testing the 34.85 level, a critical resistance both in the short and long term. Since 2013, a cup and handle formation has developed just beneath this level. A confirmed breakout could signal sustained long-term bullish momentum.
Supporting this outlook, the gold/silver ratio has recently shown a decisive tilt in gold's favor, reaching historically extreme levels. This test of 34.85 might be the catalyst silver bulls have been waiting for and a return to normal signal for gold/silver ratio with pair trade oppurtunity.
However, caution is warranted. Silver is known for sharp intraday and weekly reversals. Confirming the breakout or false breakout could become tricky.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Pullback From Key Level
WTI Crude Oil looks overbought after a test of key daily horizontal resistance level.
A violation of a minor horizontal support on an hourly time frame after its test
provides a strong intraday confirmation.
I expect a retracement to 66.33 level.
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Gold Extends Gains Post-CPI | All Eyes on PPI for the Next Move XAUUSD – Gold Extends Gains Post-CPI | All Eyes on PPI for the Next Move
🌍 Macro Pulse: CPI Sparks Momentum, But Will PPI Sustain It?
Gold surged following softer-than-expected US inflation data on Tuesday, with the CPI rising just 0.1% MoM and 2.4% YoY—both below forecasts. This triggered a broad sell-off in the USD, a pullback in Treasury yields, and a renewed appetite for non-yielding safe havens like gold.
Markets are now increasingly pricing in a rate cut by the Fed in September, adding further fuel to the rally. However, Wednesday’s US PPI data could either reinforce this bullish sentiment or reverse it sharply.
📉 Technical Landscape – H1 & H4 View
🔹 Trend Bias
The bullish structure remains intact, with price carving out higher highs and higher lows since the 3312 level. The recent breakout above 3370 confirms bullish momentum.
🔹 Price Channels
Gold continues to track within a defined ascending channel. A potential retest of the lower trendline near 3345–3350 could provide a dip-buying opportunity.
🔹 EMA Structure
The price trades comfortably above the 13, 34, 89, and 200 EMAs.
Short-term EMA crossovers are supportive of continued upside.
🔹 Critical Resistance Ahead: 3392 – 3395
A key technical zone combining Fibonacci extension levels and recent rejection wicks. A decisive break or rejection here will set the tone for the next 48 hours.
🧠 Market Psychology & PPI Scenarios
The market is currently optimistic, but still cautious. The PPI report due later today will likely serve as the next directional trigger:
If PPI prints below estimates → reinforces disinflation narrative → potential breakout above 3,400 with upside targets towards 3,420+.
If PPI comes in hot → raises concerns about sticky input costs → possible short-term reversal or consolidation.
Expect volatility to spike during the New York session.
🎯 Today’s Tactical Trade Setups – 12 June
🟢 Buy Zone: 3324 – 3322
Stop Loss: 3318
Take Profit Targets: 3330 – 3334 – 3338 – 3342 – 3346 – 3350
🟢 Buy Scalp Zone: 3337 – 3335
SL: 3330
TPs: 3341 – 3345 – 3350 – 3354 – 3360 – 3370 – 3380
🔴 Sell Zone: 3392 – 3394
Stop Loss: 3398
Take Profit Targets: 3388 – 3384 – 3380 – 3375 – 3370 – 3360 – 3350
✅ Final Take
Gold bulls are in control, but the PPI data will likely dictate whether momentum continues or stalls. With key resistance just ahead and macro risk on the table, this is not the time to trade blindly.
🧭 Strategy Tip: Let price confirm the reaction to PPI. Don’t pre-position into volatility. Play the breakout or the fade—but wait for clarity.
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bullish bounceWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 66.44 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 64.25 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 69.11 which is a pullback resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
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Repeated sweeps, gold trend analysis and operation layout📰 Impact of news:
1. Pay attention to the initial unemployment claims data
📈 Market analysis:
Gold price jumped higher in Asian session. The short-term upper pressure is at 3375. Once it breaks, the upward route of bulls will be opened. The RSI indicator in the 1H chart began to retreat after touching the overbought area. Last night's high of 3360 is now a breakthrough, and the previous strong suppression is at 3350. This morning's Asian session was also broken and stabilized. Then 3360-3350 has changed from a suppression position to a support position. Therefore, the next position we should pay close attention to should be around 3360-3350. If it can fall back to 3360-3350 in the future, it is possible to enter the market to do more, but at the same time, it is also necessary to defend 3345. Independent trading requires a SL.
🏅 Trading strategies:
BUY 3360-3350
TP 3370-3380-3400
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD