Commodities
Gold Recovers on Safe-Haven Flows Amid U.S. Trade UncertaintyFX:XAUUSD – Market Overview
Fundamental Outlook:
Gold has recovered from prior losses, stabilizing on the back of renewed safe-haven demand amid escalating global trade tensions.
Analysts point to growing concerns over a broader U.S.-led trade war, which has pushed investors toward gold as a defensive asset. While President Trump has delayed the reimplementation of tariffs until August 1 to allow for negotiation, markets remain cautious, and volatility is expected to persist.
Technical Outlook:
Gold is currently trading above the pivot level at 3320, which has a consolidation within 3320 - 3342 range
Stability above 3342 would likely extend the rally toward 3365, with 3356 as an intermediate resistance.
However, a 1H candle close below 3320 could shift momentum back to bearish, targeting 3297 and 3281.
Support Levels: 3312 / 3297 / 3281
Resistance Levels: 3342 / 3356 / 3365
GBP/USD : Get Ready for Another Fall!By analyzing the GBP/USD chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after reaching 1.36800—filling the targeted FVG as expected—the price faced selling pressure once again and has since dropped to around 1.35690.
The first target at 1.35630 is now within reach. After collecting liquidity below this level and a possible short-term bounce, we can expect another bearish continuation on GBPUSD.
Key supply zones to watch are 1.36180–1.36465 and 1.36940.
Key demand zones are located at 1.35630, 1.35100, and 1.34880.
THE MAIN ANALYSIS :
COFFEE - My Commodity of ChoiceI've laid out a plan I'm looking at on one of my favorite commodities - COFFEE ☕😍
What makes it so hard is the predictability of the weather - nearly impossible for the future. However, it is odd to see that the price still bonces at key support and resistance zones, almost like any "stock". Which tells me regular market trading still applies despite the odd weather event.
The reason Coffee has fallen so hard over the past few months is supply - due to extremely favorable weather conditions, coffee supply is more than demand. Resulting, as market dynamics goes, in a drop of price.
It's unfortunate though that my favorite pack of beans at the supermarket has not gone down - weird how that works 🙄 I like a medium roast, Columbia single origin.
It's dropped -33% already, but I can clearly see the market structure entering bearish phase after the bullish phase, peak (the new high) and now likely a multi-month bearish season. The question is just where the price can bottom for such a well loved commodity.
I looked at past cycles, not too long ago we dropped roughly 44% during the bearish cycle, taking 2-3 years to move into accumulation before another impulse wave up. That places a target for entry exactly in the highlighted zone around $250ish.
But I wouldn't get too greedy on my favorite commodity, buying orders can't be too low either. This would likely have to be a multiyear hold. Pepperstone sells coffee on cash contract but I usually do futures. Pity that I didn't get in sooner, bullish cycles is also at least a 2 year journey. I'll sell when the weather is bad 😅
Next up? Chocolate for sure...
Silver Holds Near $36.80 on Tariff FearsSilver remains steady just below $37.00, hovering around $36.80 in Tuesday’s Asian session after a sharp rebound from the $36.15 level seen late Monday. The metal continues to trade in a tight range as conflicting market signals keep traders cautious.
Global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, fueled by the U.S.’s upcoming tariffs on multiple countries and its hardline stance against BRICS-aligned nations, have elevated market risk perception. This has sparked a modest uptick in safe-haven demand, offering limited support to silver.
The strength of the U.S. Dollar and uncertainty surrounding future interest rate decisions are capping silver’s upside potential. Market participants remain focused on incoming economic data and central bank signals for clearer direction.
In the near term, silver is expected to stay volatile and highly reactive to geopolitical and economic headlines.
Resistance is at 37.50, while support holds at 35.40.
Gold Rebounds Toward $3,350Gold (XAU/USD) rebounded from a five-day low of $3,297, climbing toward $3,350 after Trump announced 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea effective August 1, with 12 more countries receiving similar tariff warnings ranging between 25% and 40%. The rising risk of a global trade war fueled safe-haven demand, though gold’s gains were capped by simultaneous US Dollar strength.
Resistance is at $3,365, while support holds at $3,300.
80k BTC On The Move - WHAT It Means 80,000 BTC Wallet Movement (2011 Miner)
• Source: 8 wallets containing 10,000 BTC each — mined in 2011, dormant for 14 years
• Total Value: Over $8.6 billion USD
• Timing: Moved on July 4, 2025 — largest dormant BTC transfer in history
• New Addresses: Funds moved to modern SegWit wallets
• Probable Owner: Likely a single early miner with 200k+ BTC history
Possible Reasons for the Move
• Key Rotation: Upgrading to modern wallets for better security
• Recovered Access: Private keys may have been recently recovered
• Market Strategy: Positioning for profit-taking or major sell-off
• Yield Farming: Preparing COINBASE:BTCUSD for use in DeFi/lending platforms
• Collateral Use: Possibly for loans, stablecoin leverage, or RWAs
• Estate Planning: Legal restructuring or generational wealth setup
• OTC Transfer: Could be prepping for off-exchange institutional sale
• Psychological Warfare: Could be intended to spook or manipulate the market
• Regulatory Response: Aligning with new compliance or tax jurisdiction
Market Reaction
• COINBASE:BTCUSD Price Dip: Price briefly fell below $108,000 post-move
• ETF Context: Movement occurred despite record ETF inflows
Key Note: These wallets had not been touched since COINBASE:BTCUSD was worth ~$0.78. Their reactivation adds uncertainty and opportunity in a fragile macro environment.
• What to do????: Watch the orderbook to find these large bitcoin moves in case of exchange selling
Near term support & resistance
$106000 support
$109500 first resistance
👍 If this breakdown helped your trading, smash that Like and drop a comment below—let me know what you think will happen with the 80k COINBASE:BTCUSD . 👍
Best Reguards
MartyBoots, 17-year market trader
XAUUSD Trading Strategy – July 8, 2025Gold (XAUUSD) is trading around 3,331 USD as global markets react to a series of critical economic data releases. The recent rally has brought prices back to a key resistance zone, but selling pressure remains strong due to the following factors:
- The Dollar Index (DXY) TVC:DXY holds steady near 97, its highest level in five weeks. A strong USD continues to weigh on gold, a non-yielding asset.
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yields remain stable at 4.35%, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates for longer to tame inflation.
- Robust U.S. labor market data and June’s Core PCE figures staying above the Fed’s 2% target further reduce the likelihood of a rate cut in Q3 or Q4.
- Geopolitical tensions remain muted, with no significant escalations in the Russia–Ukraine conflict or Middle East unrest, weakening gold’s safe-haven appeal.
➡ Collectively, these factors suggest that gold’s recent rebound could be a technical pullback within a broader downtrend, unless a new catalyst drives a breakout.
1. XAUUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Chart (D1)
Price is currently testing the 3,331 – 3,340 USD resistance zone, which includes:
A previous supply zone that has rejected multiple rallies.
- Fibonacci retracement 0.5–0.618 from the recent high at 3,405 USD.
- A key Change of Character (CHoCH) area, where trend reversals have previously occurred.
- EMA20 and EMA50 remain aligned downward, confirming the dominant bearish trend.
- RSI hovers around 50 with signs of mild bearish divergence, reflecting weakening bullish momentum.
➡ The current price action fits a classic “sell on rally” setup, with repeated rejections at technical resistance zones.
2. Key Price Levels to Watch
Technical Significance
- 3,340 – 3,331 Confluence resistance (Fibo 0.5–0.618 + supply + CHoCH)
- 3,310 – 3,300 Nearest support – role reversal zone
- 3,275 – 3,260 Short-term target support – June’s low
- 3,223 – 3,205 Strong medium-term support – April’s low + extended Fibo
3. Suggested XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD Trading Strategy
Primary Strategy: SELL if price rejects 3,340 – 3,345
Entry: 3,340 – 3,345
Stop Loss: 3,356
Take Profit 1: 3,335
Take Profit 2: 3,330
Take Profit 3: 3,325
Ps : Gold is trading at a critical price zone. If XAUUSD fails to break above the 3,340 USD resistance, there’s a high probability of a pullback toward the lower support levels. Selling at resistance and targeting support remains the preferred approach in the current macro environment, which continues to favor bearish momentum.
This strategy will be updated regularly – save it and follow to avoid missing upcoming opportunities.
Analysis by @Henrybillion
#OTHERS.D ~ Do you believe in Castles in the SKY?I believe that the Others dominance metric divided by an ounce of real money #Gold gives us a valuable insight into the fabled altseasons.
Because as this chart shows theres only been 4 in actuality
and you normal get a double bubble in a cycle.
So I believe we are at the cusp of turning things around as most people have given up on the concept of altcoins ever pumping again.
But it was just the business cycle #PMI that has depressed prices for the past few years.
GOLD Is Very Bullish! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 3,324.35.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 3,358.66 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
DeGRAM | GOLD rebound📊 Technical Analysis
● Price is coiling inside a contracting triangle whose base sits on the blue up-sloping support line (~3 312); successive higher reaction-lows signal buyers defending trend structure.
● A 1 h candle through the triangle top 3 330 would confirm breakout and allow a run to the June swing cap at 3 345, with the pattern’s measured move aligning with the channel mid-band at 3 389.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Powell’s testimony hinting at “better balance” in the labour market trimmed 2-yr real yields, while latest IMF data show central-bank gold buying expanding for a fourth month, underpinning spot demand.
✨ Summary
Long 3 312-3 330; breakout >3 330 targets 3 345 → 3 389. Bull view void on an H1 close below 3 300.
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4‑Hour Technical Framework- 8th July 2025Current Price: ~$3,330
Timeframe Focus: 4‑Hour and 1‑Hour
Directional Bias: Neutral-to-Bearish
Methodologies Used:
✅ Price Action, Fibonacci Levels, Support & Resistance
✅ Supply & Demand Zones
✅ ICT / Smart Money Concepts (BOS, CHoCH, Liquidity, OB, FVG)
4‑Hour Market Structure Analysis
Gold has shifted into a neutral-to-bearish regime on the 4‑hour timeframe, after a decisive Break of Structure (BOS) below prior swing lows at ~$3,345 and a clear Change of Character (CHoCH) as bulls failed to sustain above the ~$3,350 level. Price currently hovers around ~$3,330, consolidating within a bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) left by the recent impulsive drop.
Key Observations:
A liquidity grab above $3,349 (stop sweep) preceded a sharp reversal, validating this as a sell-side liquidity zone.
The 4H supply zone / bearish Order Block (OB) at $3,345–$3,350 remains unmitigated and likely to attract sellers.
Immediate downside is cushioned by a 4H demand zone & FVG at $3,300–$3,305, which has acted as support during the prior dip.
A deeper daily demand zone rests around $3,280–$3,290, which aligns with historical support and unmitigated buy‑side liquidity.
Key 4‑Hour Levels to Watch
Price Level Type Notes
$3,360–$3,365 Supply / Fib 61.8% Strong resistance
$3,345–$3,350 Supply / OB + 50% Fib Primary sell zone
$3,330–$3,334 Bearish FVG Active imbalance
$3,300–$3,305 Demand / FVG Primary buy zone
$3,280–$3,290 Demand (daily OB) Secondary buy zone
The neutral-to-bearish bias is reinforced by the fact that price has failed to reclaim prior support and continues to respect supply zones.
1‑Hour Intraday Trade Ideas
Zooming into the 1‑hour chart, we align intraday setups with the broader 4H directional bias: selling into supply and covering into demand.
Setup 1: Short at 4H Imbalance
Entry: ~$3,332–$3,334 (inside active FVG)
Stop-Loss: Above $3,335
Targets:
TP1: $3,305
TP2: $3,280
Confluences: BOS + CHoCH, 4H FVG, sell‑side liquidity above.
Setup 2: Short on Retracement
Entry: ~$3,345–$3,350 (50% Fib + OB)
Stop-Loss: Above $3,352
Targets: Same as Setup 1.
Setup 3: Aggressive Long (Countertrend)
Entry: ~$3,300–$3,305 (demand + FVG)
Stop-Loss: Below $3,295
Target: $3,327
Note: Only valid if strong bullish reaction occurs in demand.
The Golden Setup
Sell at ~$3,332–$3,334 (active 4H imbalance) with a target of $3,300.
This setup offers maximum confluence — bearish FVG, BOS, and supply rejection — with tight risk parameters and favorable reward/risk ratio.
Summary Table
Bias Levels of Interest
Directional Bias Neutral-to-Bearish
Strong Sell Zones $3,330–$3,334 and $3,345–$3,350
Strong Buy Zones $3,300–$3,305 and $3,280–$3,290
Closing Notes
Gold continues to respect Smart Money footprints on the 4‑hour chart, suggesting more downside unless bulls reclaim $3,350 decisively. Today’s focus remains on short opportunities at premium levels into supply and imbalances, targeting well‑defined demand areas below.
Watch price action closely in the $3,332–$3,334 zone for the highest‑probability short entry of the session — The Golden Setup.
XAUUSD Outlook: How Risk Sentiment Could Shape the Next MoveI’m currently analysing XAUUSD (Gold) 🟡, which has come under bearish pressure 📉, showing signs of downside momentum. In the video 🎥, we also explore the inverse correlation between Gold and risk assets like the NASDAQ 📊.
Keep a close eye on NASDAQ movements—if risk assets break bullish 🚀, we may see further weakness in Gold. On the other hand, if risk sentiment shifts and risk assets break bearish 🛑, Gold could attract safe-haven demand and gain strength 💪.
We also dive into the price action, market structure, and pull up the volume profile 🧩. Gold is currently trading around the Point of Control (POC) ⚖️—a key level where significant volume has accumulated. A clean break above or below this area could act as a technical trigger for the next move 📈📉.
As always, this is not financial advice ⚠️—just my market view.
SILVER SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
SILVER SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,674.6
Target Level: 3,550.8
Stop Loss: 3,756.2
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 9h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for July 8Gold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance 3360, support below 3284
Four-hour chart resistance 3350, support below 3300
One-hour chart resistance 3344, support below 3314
Analysis of gold news: Last week, as the market continued to increase its bets on the Fed's dovish stance, gold rose steadily after rebounding from a major trend line. However, after the release of the stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report (NFP), market expectations for interest rates turned hawkish again, and the gold rally reversed. This week, the focus will be on the Fed's minutes and the expiration of the tariff exemption on July 9, and whether it will send a signal of possible interest rate cuts in the future. Is it an extension of the tariff exemption agreement or a return to the tariff rate when the tariff took effect on April 2. To judge the further direction of the market. If the minutes are dovish, it means that policymakers are cautious about the economic outlook, the US dollar may face correction pressure, and gold prices will be supported to rebound and strengthen. On the contrary, if the need to maintain high interest rates is emphasized, it is expected to boost the strength of the US dollar and suppress the decline in gold prices. However, it is not expected to change the trend of gold prices in the near and short term.
Gold operation suggestions: From the current trend analysis, the support below focuses on the four-hour level near 3314, and the upper pressure focuses on the 3339-3350 range. The short-term long and short strength dividing line is 3314. If the four-hour level stabilizes above this position, continue to buy at a low level.
Buy: 3314near SL: 3309
Buy: 3350near SL: 3345
WTI Crude Oil: Double Engulf + H&S Breakdown Points to $40Hello guys! Let's dive into WTI!
The weekly chart of WTI Crude Oil reveals a bearish Head & Shoulders pattern playing out over a long-term descending channel. Price recently got rejected from the upper trendline, showing weakness despite a short-term bounce.
- Engulfed 1 & 2:
Two major engulfing zones failed to hold as support, turning into strong resistance.
- Bearish Scenario in Play:
After the recent upside move into resistance, price is likely to follow one of two paths:
- Continuation Within the Channel:
Rejection from the upper bound of the descending channel leads to a stair-step decline toward the $47–52 zone.
- Final Rejection from Supply Zone ($83–89):
A larger corrective push could test this area before a full collapse toward the long-term demand zone.
Main Target:
The blue shaded region ($36–47) stands out as a strong long-term demand zone, where buyers may finally step in.
____________________
Invalidation point:
Unless crude oil breaks above the $89 zone with strong volume, all signs point to further downside.
The chart structure favors a slow bleed with temporary bounces, ultimately targeting the $40s.
GOLD → Correction for confirmation before growthFX:XAUUSD is recovering due to increased demand as a safe-haven asset. After breaking through local trend resistance, an upward channel is beginning to form on the chart.
On Monday, gold tested the 3295-3300 zone (liquidity zone) and, against the backdrop of incoming economic data, is buying back the decline, forming a rather interesting pattern that could lead to continued growth, but there is a but!
Investors are reacting to President Trump's threats to impose tariffs on imports from a dozen countries starting August 1. In addition, the main question is the Fed's interest rate decision. The regulator is likely to leave the rate unchanged due to inflation risks.
Uncertainty surrounding tariffs is supporting interest in gold as a safe-haven asset. The market is awaiting further news and the publication of the Fed minutes on Wednesday.
Resistance levels: 3345, 3357, 3396
Support levels: 3320, 3311, 3295
A correction to support is forming. If the bulls hold their ground within the upward channel and above the key areas of interest, the focus will shift to 3345, a resistance level that could hold the market back from a possible rise. A breakout of this zone would trigger a rise to 3357-3396.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Gold H1 | Approaching an overlap resistanceGold (XAU/USD) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 3,344.65 which is an overlap resistance.
Stop loss is at 3,368.00 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 3,313.35 which is a pullback support.
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GOLD BUY M15 Gold (XAU/USD) Trade Setup – 15-Min Chart (July 8, 2025)
Entry Zone: Price is currently consolidating in a marked demand zone, forming a potential bullish setup.
Support Level (SL): 3325 – This is the stop-loss level, placed just below the support zone to minimize risk.
Buy Zone: Price is expected to rise from the current level after breaking out of the consolidation box (purple zone).
Bullish Structure: Price is forming higher lows and appears to be preparing for a breakout to the upside.
Target: 3348 – This is the marked resistance level and take-profit target, just below the "Strong High" area.
Key Levels:
Support: 3325
Current Price: Around 3334
Resistance Zones: 3343, 3348
Summary:
A bullish move is anticipated from the current price level, with an entry near 3334 targeting 3348. Stop-loss is placed at 3325 to protect against downside risk. Break of the immediate resistance could trigger upward momentum toward the target.
Is gold set to shine again as an inflation hedge?
Tariff tensions are flaring once more ahead of the scheduled end to mutual tariff suspensions. President Trump has announced that tariff rates on countries such as South Korea and Japan will increase to 25% starting in August.
This renewed threat has stoked concerns about inflation, pushing up Treasury yields. As trade war risks resurface, US Treasury prices have fallen—a move consistent with market expectations of front-loaded inflation driven by higher tariffs.
Adding to the pressure, Trump’s newly signed tax cut bill is expected to widen the fiscal deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
XAUUSD is consolidating within a narrow range of 3320–3350. The price is hovering near both EMAs, awaiting an apparent trigger for a breakout. If XAUUSD breaks below the support at 3320, the price may retreat to 3300. Conversely, if XAUUSD breaches above the resistance at 3350, the price could extend its gains toward 3370.
Shorts trapped? No, the head and shoulders top is still downOver the weekend, I gave a trading strategy for going long at 3315-3305. Today, I updated and optimized the long order trading, maintained the high-short-low-long trading strategy, and began to rebound near the 3300 line, and successfully touched the long TP 3333. At present, I am executing short trades again according to the trading strategy and holding short orders.
Although gold has only retreated to around 3330, I am not worried about losses and failures in short trades. As I wrote in today's post, the daily K-line chart has a head and shoulders top pattern. As long as the bulls fail to recover 3360, it is still a short trend. Therefore, in the short term, I still think that the rebound is a good opportunity for us to go short.
At present, the short-term bullish momentum of gold has been consumed and the downward trend continues. Therefore, I still insist on holding short orders in the short term.
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, facing your mistakes, and being strict with yourself. I share free trading strategies and analysis ideas every day for reference by brothers. I hope my analysis can help you.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD