GOLD Bearish Breakout!
HI,Traders !
GOLD broke the rising
Support line and the breakout
Is confirmed so we are
Bearish biased and we
Will be expecting a
Further move down !
Comment and subscribe to help us grow !
Commodities
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq rose within a small range, forming a box consolidation pattern. On the daily chart, buying pressure remains strong, and today’s candlestick will merge with yesterday’s due to the holiday. As mentioned previously, today is a key session where the 5-day moving average may provide support, meaning a pullback to this level is possible.
Since yesterday’s high remained in a consolidation phase, the pre-market and regular session today could see some downside movement. The reason is that the market has yet to test a key level, which increases the likelihood of a short-term pullback.
On the 240-minute chart, the buy signal remains intact, but low-volume choppy price action persists. If a sell signal emerges on the 240-minute chart, the Nasdaq could correct down to the 5-day MA, making this a key area to consider buying dips.
Since today’s candle will be a combined session with yesterday, traders should expect price swings that normally unfold in one day to play out over two sessions.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed higher within a neutral range, forming a bullish daily candle. The key focus now is whether oil can sustain its double-bottom structure, leading to further upside.
For the MACD and signal line to maintain a sell signal on the daily chart, oil must break decisively below $70 by the daily close. If this does not happen, a double-bottom reversal could trigger a rebound, meaning traders should be cautious with short positions.
On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal has appeared, following a false breakdown and a potential double-bottom formation. If holding short positions, be aware of the risk of a sudden price surge.
With ongoing Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations, oil volatility could increase, so traders should remain cautious. A break above $72 would be a bullish confirmation, while a failure to hold $70 support could lead to another leg down. Risk management is crucial.
Gold
Gold rebounded on the daily chart, closing higher. The MACD has not yet crossed below the signal line, meaning that the market remains in a buy-biased structure, increasing the likelihood of continued upside.
While buying dips remains the preferred strategy, gold has already tested the 3-day and 5-day moving averages, meaning traders should now focus on lower time frames for entry confirmation.
If gold continues to rise today and breaks above the 3-day and 5-day moving averages, the MACD could turn higher again, confirming that the buy trend remains intact. However, if gold declines and the MACD forms a bearish crossover, traders should prepare for a potential move down toward the 20-day moving average, adjusting their strategy accordingly.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has dropped below the zero line, but the signal line remains above zero, suggesting that rebound attempts are likely. However, since the MACD’s downward slope is steep, a quick bullish crossover is unlikely. Even if gold rises, it may face resistance and pull back again, meaning traders should avoid chasing breakouts.
If the signal line falls below zero, this would be a bearish confirmation, making it safer to trade within a range—selling near highs and buying at lower support levels.
Given yesterday’s holiday, today could see increased volatility as markets adjust. Additionally, Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes release is expected to introduce further market swings.
Risk management is key—stay disciplined, and have a successful trading day! 🚀
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For additional strategies for today, check out my profile. Thank you!
Why You Should Avoid Trading XAUUSD on a USD Bank HolidayTrading XAUUSD (gold vs. the U.S. dollar) during a USD bank holiday is generally a bad idea due to reduced liquidity and unpredictable price movements. With U.S. banks and financial institutions closed, major market participants are absent, leading to lower trading volumes. This lack of liquidity can cause erratic price action, wider spreads, and unexpected volatility spikes, making it harder to execute trades at desired levels. Additionally, with fewer institutional traders influencing the market, technical patterns and key support/resistance levels may not hold as expected. Instead of taking unnecessary risks in an illiquid market, it’s often better to wait for normal trading conditions when price action is more reliable and spreads are tighter.
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
WTI CRUDE OIL Waiting for the 4hour MA50 to break.WTI Crude Oil / USOIL has turned sideways on the 4hour time frame, neutralizing the bearish trend of January.
Right now there is a clear Support and Resistance Zone, with the 4hour MA50 getting the last rejection.
If this breaks and closes a candle over it (4hour MA50), it will be a bullish signal like February 10th.
We are already on a MACD Bullish Cross which was the first bullish signal in early February.
So if Oil gives that MA50 break out, buy and target the bottom of Resistance A at 73.25.
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
Gold - A Bullish Close Would Be Insane!Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) has to close bullish now:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Just since the end of 2022, Gold rallied about +80% which is simply unbelievable looking at the already significant market cap of the precious metal. However this bullrun does not seem to be over and if Gold confirmes the trendline breakout, another rally of +40% will follow soon.
Levels to watch: $4.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for price to start with an incline into the lower support regions in order to give us another long opportunity into the target level 2902 initially, which was our Excalibur target. Gold however had another plan and started the move from the open, this allowed us to trade on the red boxes and trade the move upside surpassing the target level into the highs that we witnessed last week.
During the week, we update our traders with the path upside and suggested looking for the short trade from the Red box active level, which worked perfectly giving the move downside that we saw on Friday.
It was a fantastic week in Camelot, not only completing 8 Gold targets on Excalibur, but also all the bias level and red box targets. Not to mention the targets completed on all the other pairs we share and analyse. Well done to the traders who followed!
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
This week we’re looking for price to potentially give us further opportunities to short, however, we have a key level above of 2910! Support on the intra-day stands at 2870-65, which if targeted early session could give buyers the confidence they need to take that long into the 2890-5 region and above that 2904. There is an extension of the move into the 2910 region, but anywhere between the 2904-10 region are the levels we want to monitor for RIPs, and if they present themselves, the opportunity to take that swing short may be there again.
The key order region (liquidity pool) is sitting below at 2850-55 which is a decent level for price to attempt, but this region needs to be broken to go lower! If broken, we won’t be looking to go long again until we’re closer to lower 2800’s, so please trade with caution this week.
We do have higher targets on Gold, but, there needs to be a correction and if this is it, we’ll make sure to take advantage of it just like we have done for years, up, down, where ever it goes, we’ll trade it with our trusted pal Excalibur, the EA and our Red box indicators.
Not much more to say, low volume news this week, Monday could be a ranging day so expect choppy and whipsawing price action.
KOG’s bias for the week:
Bullish above 2865 with targets above 2885, 2895, 2902 and above that 2910
Bearish on break of 2865 with targets below 2855, 2850, 2843, 2835 and below that 2828
RED BOXES:
Break above 2885 for 2888, 2902, 2910 and 2913 in extension of the move
Break below 2875 for 2870, 2865, 2857, 2855 and 2850 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
The latest trend and trading analysis of gold and crude oilOANDA:XAUUSD Analysis of gold news: Spot gold rebounded slightly in the late trading period of the U.S. market on Monday, but the strength was limited. The daily decline on Friday reached 1.5%, falling from the historical high. However, it should be noted that the price volatility increased significantly after the long squeeze, and the high-level operation caused the long profit-taking, which led to the adjustment of the gold price. The gold price is approaching $2,905/ounce, a surge of more than $22 a day. At present, the Trump administration plans to formally impose tariffs on auto imports on April 2, which may have a wide impact on the global supply chain. Although some investors believe that Trump's tariff policy is mainly a negotiation strategy, the market remains cautious about possible uncertainties in the future. In addition to safe-haven demand, the continued purchase of gold by central banks is also a key factor in maintaining high gold prices. According to market surveys, major central banks around the world, especially those in major Asian countries, continue to increase their gold reserves to hedge against global economic uncertainties. Monday is the U.S. President's Day holiday. The U.S. stock market is closed and the precious metals market is closed in advance. Market trading may be limited. Pay attention to the speech of Federal Reserve Board Director Bowman and Trump's dynamic news, and pay attention to news related to the situation in Russia and Ukraine. There are relatively few economic data this week, mainly due to the US real estate market data and the initial value of the US SPGI manufacturing PMI in February. Pay attention to the interest rate decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. TVC:GOLD TVC:USOIL
Technical analysis of gold: The daily line of gold shows a trend of falling with a high-level big negative, and the Bollinger Bands also show signs of closing. However, from the current technical perspective, it is not enough to determine the formation of the top. The main basis is that the unilateral moving average has not broken, and the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average have not turned downward, which means that gold still has the possibility of rising. If the daily line continues to close with a big positive this week, the double top position of 2942 above may also be broken. It can be seen that the current technical aspect shows an overall bullish trend. If the unilateral moving average does not break, the downward trend will be difficult to continue; and if the key resistance level of 2942 is not broken, it will be difficult for gold to usher in a new round of substantial gains. Based on this, it is expected that gold will maintain a long-term volatile trend at a high level. Focus on the two key resistance levels of 2930 and 2942 on the top, and pay attention to the support of 2875 and 2830 on the bottom. The limit support is expected to be 2800.
In terms of small cycles, special attention should be paid to the volatile market of the H4 cycle. Above 2878, the H4 cycle closed above the lower Bollinger track with a small cross star, and the 60-day moving average did not break, so it is normal to rebound under the bullish trend. Then the big sun closed up, and the Bollinger band closed, which also laid a bullish tone for the market at the beginning of the week. In this case, it is necessary to wait for the end of the rising market of the H4 cycle, and then judge whether there is room for adjustment. Pay attention to the resistance levels of 2915 and 2930 on the top. On the whole, it is recommended to focus on callbacks and high-altitude rebounds in today's short-term operation of gold. Focus on the resistance of 2905-2915 in the short term, and focus on the support of 2885-2880 in the short term.
Analysis of the latest trend of crude oil market:
Analysis of crude oil news: On Monday (February 17, Beijing time), US crude oil traded around $70.95 per barrel. International oil prices rose slightly in the Asian session, benefiting from the recovery of fuel demand and the news that the United States postponed the implementation of global reciprocal tariffs, which eased the market's risk aversion. The Iraqi Kurdish Autonomous Region may resume exports, and the outlook for Russian oil supply is uncertain. Recently, the chairman of the Iraqi Kurdish Autonomous Region said that oil exports from the region may resume next month. This means that after nearly two years of interruption, oil supplies from northern Iraq will return to the international market, bringing additional supply pressure to the crude oil market. At the same time, US President Trump plans to meet with Russian President Putin to seek to promote peace talks in Ukraine. Although traditional European allies have been marginalized in the process, Trump said that Ukrainian President Zelensky will participate in the discussion of the peace agreement. This development may affect Russia's sanctions policy on oil exports and lead to changes in the global supply pattern in the future.
Technical analysis of crude oil: From the daily chart level, the medium-term trend of crude oil tested the upper edge of the wide channel and then fell, which just matched the fundamentals. The K-line closed with negative entities continuously, and the moving average system showed signs of turning downward. The performance of short-term momentum was dominant, and the medium-term trend returned to the range. The overall trend was mainly downward within the range. The short-term trend of crude oil (1H) rose first and then fell, and oil prices continued to fall and hit a new low. The moving average system was arranged in a short position, and the short-term objective trend direction was downward. In the main downward trend rhythm of crude oil in the early Asian session, short-term momentum was dominant. Patiently wait for the formation of the secondary rhythm. It is expected that the trend of crude oil will maintain low consolidation during the day and gradually test 70. On the whole, the operation strategy of crude oil today is recommended to rebound high and supplemented by retracement. The short-term focus on the resistance line of 72.0-72.5 on the upper side and the short-term focus on the support line of 70.0-69.5 on the lower side.
Summary: The characteristic of novices is that they do not understand technology and enter the market blindly. They only consider the first question every time they trade: they think that as long as they predict the rise and fall of the market, they can do this transaction. This approach of focusing on direction and ignoring position makes traders fail miserably. In fact, there is a big difference between the "trend" and the "direction" of following the trend, because the direction of the market movement presents a fluctuating form, and the market trend is often global. What I can do here is to help you control your positions reasonably, use the support and resistance levels to place orders, and make each order reasonable and traceable. Buying and selling points should not be entered at will, please be responsible for your own funds. If you really can't grasp the market, you can leave a message, and always remember one sentence, professionals do professional things.
Mr. Baker
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Great start to the week with our chart idea already off to a flying start.
We started with our Bullish target at 2905 hit and now seeing price resist here and ranging due to low volume currently due to US holiday.
We are now looking for ema5 to lock above 2905 for a continuation to the range above or failure to lock above will see price reject into the lower Goldturns for support ad bounce. Ema5 lock will confirm level to level direction and range to range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2905 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2905 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2934
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2934 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2959
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2959 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2987
BEARISH TARGETS
2872
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2871 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2841
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2841 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2807 - 2781
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2841 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
SECONDARY SWING RANGE
2764 - 2740
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold 1H Intra-Day Chart 17.02.2025On our last 1H Intraday chart Gold had smashed our target! Right now my bias is;
Option 1: Gold pushes higher, taking out the EQH around the $2,940 zone. Will look for a rejection around $2,950 - $2,960.
Option 2: Gold rejections the current resistance zone and keeps dropping towards $2,840.
Silver key trading level at 3171The Silver (XAGUSD) price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The price action creates a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The recent consolidation appears to be breakout and a retest of a bullish pennant.
The key trading level is at 3171, which is the current swing low. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 3171 level could target the upside resistance at 3274 followed by the 3308 and 3340 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of 3171 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 3125 support level followed by 3076.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
GOLD - XAUUSDLocally, the XAUUSD price broke through the downtrend lines. Now we are near the first resistance of 1900. The next liquidity level is near 1950.
Many experts believe that the price will move sideways until geopolitical tensions subside or until the FED raises interest rates. However, even if rates start to rise with high inflation - the real interest rates are likely to be negative. Therefore, they believe that gold will remain attractive as a defensive asset.
Rising gold = a traditional harbinger of crises and slight shocks in the stock and crypto markets. Gold is an excellent choice for those who don't particularly want to go into cash inflation but don't want to be present in dive markets.
Best regards,
EXCAVO
GOLD: Trading Signal From Our Team
GOLD
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long GOLD
Entry - 2897.2
Sl - 2889.4
Tp - 2912.0
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Oil weekly forecast with buy and sell levelsOil on the weekly chart shows a strong downtrend probably due to economic policies and over production.
This week we have to remain cautious and stick to known levels off previous support and resistance.
For a buy ill look at entering at 70.80 and follow up through the marked levels.
For a sell entry ill look at 70.20 expecting 69.30, 67.80 and high support at 67.00 to 66.80 levels.
Check out my other trade ideas linked below for Gold
Can Soybeans Survive the Global Trade Chessboard?In the intricate game of international trade politics, soybeans have emerged as pivotal pieces on the global economic chessboard. The soybean industry faces a critical juncture as nations like the European Union and China implement protectionist strategies in response to US policies. This article delves into how these geopolitical moves are reshaping the future of one of America's most significant agricultural exports, challenging readers to consider the resilience and adaptability required in today's volatile trade environment.
The European Union's decision to restrict US soybean imports due to the use of banned pesticides highlights a growing trend towards sustainability and consumer health in global trade. This move impacts American farmers and invites us to ponder the broader implications of agricultural practices on international commerce. As we witness these shifts, the question arises: How can the soybean industry innovate to meet global standards while maintaining its economic stronghold?
China's strategic response, which targets influential American companies like PVH Corp., adds complexity to the global trade narrative. The placement of a major U.S. brand on China's 'unreliable entity' list highlights the power dynamics involved in international commerce. This situation prompts us to consider the interconnectedness of economies and the potential for unforeseen alliances or conflicts. What strategies can businesses implement to navigate these challenging circumstances?
Ultimately, the soybean saga is more than a tale of trade disputes; it's a call to action for innovation, sustainability, and strategic foresight in the agricultural sector. As we watch this unfold, we are inspired to question not just the survival of soybeans but the very nature of global economic relationships in an era where every move on the trade chessboard can alter the game. How will the soybean industry, and indeed, international trade, evolve in response to these challenges?
XAU/USD : Bull or Bear? Let's See! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the 30-minute gold chart, we can see that, as expected, gold resumed its bullish momentum, successfully hitting the $2,923 and $2,929 targets with ease, and even extending its rally to $2,940.
With this move, gold filled the Fair Value Gap (FVG) mentioned in the previous analysis and reached its bearish order block.
Currently, gold is trading around $2,927, and the next move will depend on price stability:
• If gold holds above $2,929 for the next 4 hours, we could see another bullish push.
• If gold fails to hold above this key level, we might see a pullback towards $2,923 as the first corrective target.
Stay tuned for further updates!
GOLD XAUUSD ShortGold is struggling at the 2906–2907 resistance on both H1 and D1 timeframes. it is failed to break this level in H1 time frame , Now we could see a drop toward the 2883/2880 support zone. A break below that could extend the bearish move to 2864.
However, if gold manages to break and hold above 2907, expect bullish momentum to continue. Keep an eye on price action around these key levels!
XAUUSD Gold has reached a strong demand zone around 2882/2878. After a sharp decline, price action shows signs of reversal, with potential bullish momentum building up.
Price is expected to rebound from the support zone and push towards key resistance levels:
✅ Target 1: 2894
✅ Target 2: 2907
A bullish engulfing candle or a strong rejection from the support zone could validate the move.
Breaking above 2894 may accelerate the bullish momentum.
⚠️ Bearish In-validations:
A breakdown below 2882/2878 may signal further downside to 2863, the next strong support level.
Look for confirmation before entering a long trade.
Use a tight stop-loss below the demand zone for risk management.
GOLD - Price can bounce up from support line of wedgeHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Not a long time ago, price reached support level and broke it, after which made a retest and started to grow in channel.
In channel, Gold rose to $2880 level, but at once made correction to support line of channel and then continued to grow.
Soon, price broke $2880 level and rose to resistance line of channel, where it turned around and started to decline.
Gold exited of channel and continued to trades in a wedge, where it fell to support line and then bounced up.
Later it reached resistance line of the wedge, but recently it dropped to support line and now it rising near this line.
In my mind, Gold can bounce up from support line to $2950, thereby exiting from the wedge pattern.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Silver is still flirting with its key short-term resistance areaLooking at the current technical right now, we can see that MARKETSCOM:SILVER bulls are trying to find strong grounds to lift themselves and travel back to the current all-time high. However, certain boxes have to be ticked first, before we can get a bit more comfortable with further action to the upside.
TVC:SILVER
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SELL USOILAs you can notice on the chart, the price reached the liquidity zone, pilled back on it to give us a confirmation of the reversal.
You can sell and set your TP and SL as I set mine on the chart.
Follow for more!
XAUUSD Channel Up preparing the new Bullish Leg.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up for almost 1 month. Friday's test of the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) proved once again why this level is the strongest Support within the pattern, as it held and has initiated a relative bounce.
If this continues, it should technically be the new Bullish Leg, similar to the January 27 rebound on the 4H MA50. As you can see, even the 4H RSI sequences among those fractals follow the same pattern.
If (d) is indeed the technical RSI bottom, then we can expect a similar 1.5 Fibonacci extension rally to 2970.
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HelenP. I Gold may correct to trend line and then start to growHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. Recently, the price began to rise from the trend line and quickly approached Support 2. After breaking this level, which aligned with the support zone, it made a slight upward movement before pulling back to the trend line. Following this correction, the price resumed its upward momentum and soon reached Support 1, another level that matched the support zone. At this point, Gold traded around Support 1 for some time before making a minor correction. Then it reversed direction and decisively broke through Support 1, entering a consolidation phase. Within this range, the price initially climbed to the upper boundary before retracing back to Support 1. Gold lingered near this level for a while and eventually rose again to the upper part of the range, only to reverse and start declining. Currently, Gold has reached a support level and is trading near it. In my view, XAUUSD will likely drop further into the support zone, touch the trend line, and then begin moving upward toward the top of the consolidation range. For this scenario, I have set my target at 2940 points, which aligns with the upper boundary of the range. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Gold at a Crossroads – Break 2934 for ATH or Drop to 2873? Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis – February 17, 2025
Market Overview
Gold prices remain volatile amid ongoing concerns over U.S. tariff policies and anticipation of Federal Reserve officials' speeches, which could provide clues about future interest rate decisions. With U.S. markets closed for President’s Day, liquidity is expected to be lower, potentially increasing price swings.
Technical Outlook
Gold's price action suggests a potential corrective move toward 2918 before resuming a bearish trend targeting 2873. A decisive H1 or H4 candle close below 2873 would strengthen the bearish momentum, leading to further downside targets at 2859 and 2823.
On the upside, for gold to regain a bullish trend, it must break above the All-Time High (ATH) at 2934. If successful, the next resistance targets would be 2956 and 2974.
Key Levels to Watch
🔹 Pivot Point: 2906
🔹 Resistance Levels: 2918, 2934 (ATH), 2956, 2974
🔹 Support Levels: 2873, 2859, 2840
📉 Bearish Scenario: Below 2873, expect further declines to 2859 and 2823.
📈 Bullish Scenario: A breakout above 2934 would open the door to 2956 and 2974.
💬 Will Gold break 2934 for new highs or correct lower first? What's your outlook? Drop your thoughts below! 👇🔥
