🥇Gold🥇 Analyze (Short term, 12/13/2022)!!!Gold is running near the PRZ(Price Reversal Zone) & the trend line & lower line of descending channel.
I expect Gold will go up at least to the upper line of descending channel.
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), Timeframe 15min⏰.
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Commodity
PA1! Potential for Bullish Continuation Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for PA1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a buy entry at 1917.5, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 1839.0, where the recent low is. Take profit will be at 2113.0, where the previous swing high is.
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OJ Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for OJ is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 2.1151, where the 100% Fibonacci projection line and 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 2.2944, where the previous swing high is. Take profit will be at 1.9053, where the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci line are.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Is silver about to break out? Commodities by themselves are not deflationary! They are dug out of the earth, and that both needs technology and people! The demand for gold and silver is higher, it becomes even higher when there is an industrial application to it.
Along with inflation, it cost more and more to refine and dig out Silver/Gold! it cost more for machinery and people. Is Silver about to break out, this will be the 3rd time it will hit resistance, and this breaks then all the algo's will follow and drive it higher and higher.
Its been a very long time since we had a commodity super cycle.
Gold continues to gain as the DXY dropsAs the DXY continued to weaken, Gold saw the most benefit as the price climbed steadily to the upside, reaching a high of 1800 which was previously tested in August.
Further upside can be anticipated with the price expected to break above the round number resistance of 1800.
Be aware of higher volatility with the rice expected to continue climbing toward the 1875 key resistance level as the DXY continues to weaken.
Oats Potential For Bearish DropLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for Z01! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell stop entry at 378.250, where tyhe 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 390.500, where the previous swing high is. Take profit will be at 362.500, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Gold consolidates with breakout potentialGold traded with little volatility despite the overnight fluctuation of the DXY, with the price maintaining around the 1750 price level.
Look for a potential breakout on Gold, if the price is able to trade above the 1760 level, with the next key resistance level at 1785.
However, for Gold to trade sustainably higher, it is anticipated that the DXY would have to weaken back down to the 105.40 price level.
Pinbar on Gold, more upside possibleGold fluctuated strongly overnight as the price spiked down to the 1726 price level before surging strongly to the upside.
Breaking above the 1745 interim resistance level, Gold is currently trading at the 1755 price level.
This move higher is primarily due to the current weakness of the DXY.
Look for Gold to continue trading higher toward the 1780 price level, with the next key resistance level at 1800.
Elliott Wave View: Silver 5 Waves Down Suggests Further downsideShort term Elliott Wave View in Silver (XAGUSD) suggests cycle from 7.14.2022 low completed as a flat structure. Up from 7.14.2022 low, wave A ended at 20.86 and pullback in wave B ended at 18.07 as another flat correction. Up from there, Index rallied in another 5 waves in lesser degree. Wave ((i)) ended at 18.94 and wave ((ii)) ended at 18.26. Silver resumed higher in wave ((iii)) towards 22.06, dips in wave ((iv)) ended at 21.26, and final wave ((v)) ended at 22.25 which completed wave C of (4).
From here, XAGUSD dropped in wave (5) forming an impulse in lesser degree. Down from wave (4), wave ((i)) ended at 21.36 and wave ((ii)) ended at 22.05. Silver continue lower ended wave ((iii)) at 20.73, bounce in wave ((iv)) ended at 21.29. Last wave ((v)) finished at 20.56 to complete the impulse as wave 1. Wave 2 rally is in progress as a zigzag structure. Up from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 21.329. Expect wave ((b)) pullback then another leg higher in wave ((c)) to end wave 2. As far as the metal stays below 22.25, we expect the rally to fail and the metal to resume lower in wave 3.
Selling Palladium in previous support.Palladium - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1978.8 (stop at 2002.1)
Previous support at 1980 now becomes resistance.
Short term bias has turned negative.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
1985 has been pivotal.
Our profit targets will be 1921.1 and 1911.1
Resistance: 1940 / 1960 / 1980
Support: 1915 / 1900 / 1880
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Gold directional bias to be developed.....Gold traded in a tight range between 1748 and 1765 through the Friday session, failing to break significantly higher despite the weakness in the DXY.
As markets consider the risk of a recession in the US and develop a stronger risk-off sentiment, further upside on Gold can be anticipated.
Look for the price to break above the 1770 price level to signal more upside, with the next key resistance level at the round number of 1800.
However, if the price breaks below the 1730 price level (61.8% fib level) AND the DXY recovery in strength is sustained, Gold could reverse significantly back toward the 1620 support level
Gold at 1680, a decision level...Despite having bounced strongly from the 1617 support level, Gold consolidates along the 1680 price level. As the price consolidates and fails to break higher, this signals the potential for a reversal.
A reversal in Gold could also be driven by a recovery in the strength of the DXY.
Look for the price to break below 1660 to indicate a downside potential, with the key support level at 1617.
Alternatively, if Gold trades higher to break above 1685, Gold could continue trading higher toward the next resistance level of 1725.
Iron ore hits record-low as demand drops By the end of 2022, the price of iron ore is expected to hit their lowest level in three or four years as global demand for the commodity continues to slow down, particularly from China, the world's largest consumer of iron ore.
In recent years, China has been cutting down its iron ore demand especially after the government placed restrictions on the industry to reduce carbon emissions. In 2021, the country's iron ore import fell to 1.12 billion tons from 1.17 billion tons in the prior-year period.
Expectations for 2022 from the production side are no better with Australia, the world's biggest exporter of iron ore, projecting a 0.6% drop in global steel output to 1.947 billion tons.
"Combined with growing global recessionary fears, new COVID-19 outbreaks and weakness in China's housing sector have dampened world steel and iron ore demand in recent months," the Australian government said in its October quarterly report.
A Reuters survey in October showed that prices are expected within the $90/ton to $115/ton range by the end of the year. MetalMiner data shows the price in early 2022 were at $160.30/ton at the beginning of Russia's war against Ukraine.
The decline comes despite forecasts of growth in the demand for iron ore through to 2026. The global market for iron ore is estimated to reach 2.7 billion metric tons, while production is expected to reach 3.17 billion metric tons.
Until definite signs of recovery are observed, maybe it is best to err on the side of caution regarding iron ore prices, especially considering the threats of a recession in Europe and the persisting problems in China's property sector, which could heavily impact on the demand for the key steelmaking ingredient.
As the DXY weakened, look at Gold!Does history repeat itself?
It looks like it might, especially in the case of Gold.
Having found strong support at the 1617 price level (and DXY weakening significantly) Gold showed a really strong upside move, as the price shot up toward the 1680 price level.
This similar price movement happened at the end of September too. With the price bouncing off the 1617 support level and climbing all the way to 1729.
Look for the current price to break above 1690 (which is also the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level) to signal a continuation of the upward move, with the 1729 price level and previous swing high, as a target.
NGAS: Will Demand for Natural Gas Increase With Climate Change?Natural Gas's all-time price action/chart suggest that it is due for a sizeable, generational bull run, to start within the next 3 years. One could blame it on war or climate change or politics but I am not smart enough to determine which may be the actual cause, if any. I can instead deduct from NGAS' wavemap that we are unlikely to enjoy the low prices we've seen during the early 90s or at late as Spring 2020.
I've never looked at an inflation chart or have been able to determine what's next for us in that regard but I think this commodity alone can give us some decent expectations. What happens if/when it costs 20x more to keep your home cool in the summer (or warm in the winter)?
With an extended diagonal wave in primary Wave 1 of NGAS, we can expect that primary Wave 3 will be likely extended beyond the 1.618 level. We cannot say that this will occur for sure but it is as likely as it ever is. After finding possible support below $5 in 2024, this commodity could make citizens want to hit the rewind button irl. By 2037-2040, Natural Gas could and should be more than the price of Oil.
At this point and time, I genuinely believe that NGAS will go 40X within the next 15 years. This is indication that I've found through continued analysis of price action. I have no reason to doubt this perspective but am well aware that it could be invalidated upon any given day. For continued analysis of this worldwide commodity and help with taking advantage of a possibly upcoming generational swings, come surf with me and the Digital Surf Trading Community.
Dr. Copper: Melt-Up Has BegunMassive daily green candle broke out of 3-month pennant and gaussian channel after bouncing off multiple moving averages, most importantly the 200 week SMA. The move also has the highest volume since March. Long RSI trend has been broken too. Back in July, I called for a bottom and an accumulation phase for copper (See Below). It played out. Price needs to take out the August high to confirm that it's out of accumulation phase, but with such strong momentum, it wouldn't be surprising if price disrespects it on Monday next week.
Educational Series: Trading with Bollinger Bands (Part 1)Bollinger Bands is a volatility indicator. It indicates how HIGH or LOW prices can move during any period. When the market is volatile, the bands widen; conversely, when the market is less volatile, the bands contract.
The standard Bollinger Band indicator comes with a preset calculation of the 2 standard deviations and the 20period moving average.
This enables us to use the Bollinger Bands more effectively in the following ways;
1) Bollinger Squeeze
2) Bollinger Reversal (Read about this in Part 2)
3) Bollinger Trend (Read about this in Part 3)
What is a Bollinger Squeeze?
A Bollinger Squeeze is identified when the bands contract for a medium time, and economic news is to be released on the horizon. It is characterized by a horizontal consolidation of price over a period of time. Typically, the horizontal squeeze can be encompassed within a rectangle (shown on the chart).
This indicates the potential for an explosive BIG move as the price breaks out of the consolidation.
What do with a Bollinger Squeeze?
Because the Bollinger Squeeze occurs before a news event, it would be unwise to pick a side for the potential breakout and gamble on the news result. Therefore, the best way to take advantage of this setup is maximized by deploying pending orders.
1) Place a Buy Stop order slightly above the top of the consolidation area, Stop Loss (SL) should be about 1.5 times the size of the consolidation area, with the Take Profit (TP) at the nearest swing high or 2 times the SL amount.
2) Place a Sell Stop order slightly below the top of the consolidation area, Stop Loss (SL) should be about 1.5 times the size of the consolidation area, with the Take Profit (TP) at the nearest swing high or 2 times the SL amount.
Whenever the Buy or Sell trade is activated, you must remember to cancel the other pending order (Or you could try to find a One-Cancel-Other EA)
Remember
- Breakout of the consolidation should result in a quick and fast price movement. If it breaks and climbs slowly, it could be a false break, and you would want to get out of the trade quickly.
- Trend could be ignored briefly (due to the explosive and short term move). But only briefly.
- Support and Resistance levels are still crucial and must be respected.
- This indicator is effective on Forex, Commodity, Cryptocurrency & Equity markets
Use the Bollinger Squeeze only on the M15 or H1 timeframe, and remember, it is a relatively rare occurrence.
GBPAUD distributionThe pound had rallied against the Aussie for a while. But then we went into a large consolidation pattern. This looks to have fake'breaked to the upside and now is making moves lower.
We could get a continuation pattern at a break of this morning's lows. The best thing to do would be to overlay a Wyckoff schematic and see if it could be the end of a distribution period.
GOLD (XAU/USD): bearish perspective. When do we sell?Looking at the 4h-timeframe chart of Gold, the following can be observed: the price is pulling back to re-test the 1658 - 1659 area of previously penetrated support which now serves as a zone of resistance. The same area nicely lines up with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
Once that specific key zone is reached, we are looking into closely monitoring the price action and eyeing possible short positions.
The initial target is plotted on the graph.
Happy November!