Commodity Wheat idea (05/10/2022)wheat
Completion of wave y of the compound binary wave, and completion of wave b at prices 945 We expect wheat to decline in the coming period after ending the correction pattern as we explained, and we expect a decline as prices are less than the decisive point 945, which is the crucial point. Important, a point for the next period and the beginning of the wave retreat
Commodity
GOLD SHORT TO 1684You missed out on the Gold bottom & didn't get into buys? Here's your chance to get in on the retracement. I am targeting 1684 on Gold. This here is a HEDGE trade against our buys. A counter trend trade like this is always risky, so use strict risk management & enjoy📈
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DB. commodity index idea (27/09/2022)DB. commodity index
We expect the index to continue declining because prices are below the 27.05 resistance point, and wave (2) has already ended and started falling in waves (3). We expect prices to drop to 1.618% at 22.18, but currently, we expect the correction to continue to 61% at 26.06 to end wave 2 before descending again.
GOLD (XAU/USD): history is repeating itself. Again? Possibly.Taking a look at the 4H timeframe chart, we can witness the beauty of price action. Accumulation+Distribution phases, a massive descending channel and many other details. Mr. Wyckoff was not the only person enjoying this incredible art. Any individual that is a fan of naked trading and of monitoring the price decline/grow gradually, will spot accumulation+distribution phases with ease.
Now, as it can be observed from the graph, not only the two previous "consolidation+dump" scenarios played out perfectly, but they also lead to the development of a third phase. At the moment, we can notice that after the recent dump, the price has pulled back to the area of the previous sideways-moving consolidation box. Here, we are expecting for the price to form a new box and range within the borders of it before making another impulsive move. Considering the current strength of the USD and the recent price development, we strongly believe that the bearish moves will continue for the near future.
GOLD (XAU/USD): detailed breakdown. What is the next step?As it can be clearly observed from the 3H timeframe graph, after breaking out of the ascending channel illustrated on the chart, the price has managed to re-test the area of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and complete the break+retest pattern.
At the moment, the price is trading within the borders of the rectangular range portrayed on the graph. Considering the strength of the USD and the recent price development of GOLD, we are pretty positive that bearish impulses will continue from here on.
With the Stop Loss above the upper barrier of the consolidation box, we are entering short positions and aiming for the bottom of the ocean.
GOLD Volatility Forecast 19-24 Sep 2022GOLD Volatility Forecast 19-24 Sep 2022
The current implied volatility is +-36.6$ from the current opening of the weekly candle, 1674$
With this in mind, we have a 80% chance that the market is going to stay within the range:
TOP: 1711
BOT: 1637
At the same time, we can see that the average weekly candle, is around 1.5 - 1.75%
From the technical analysis POV, we can see that our asset is above EMA 50/100/200.
From the volume POV, we can see that currently CMF level is on the negative side, indicading a stronger seller positions.
I believe we are to go towards 1650 initially, where probably we are going to meet some resistence, but if we manage to break this part, probably we can go twaords 1640 - 1630.