WTI 23rd of SeptemberWTI, as always, did the same movement. Price broke the pattern, retested it and reached our supply zone.
Commodity
US30 23rd of SeptemberUS30 perfectly went through our liquidity level. Once reached, the short happened.
GBP/USD 23rd of SeptemberG/U perfectly reacted to our key level. After reached it, the short happened!
GOLD (XAU/USD): detailed breakdown. What is the next step?As it can be clearly observed from the 3H timeframe graph, after breaking out of the ascending channel illustrated on the chart, the price has managed to re-test the area of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and complete the break+retest pattern.
At the moment, the price is trading within the borders of the rectangular range portrayed on the graph. Considering the strength of the USD and the recent price development of GOLD, we are pretty positive that bearish impulses will continue from here on.
With the Stop Loss above the upper barrier of the consolidation box, we are entering short positions and aiming for the bottom of the ocean.
Commodity DBC idea (22/09/2022)DB. commodity index
We expect the index to continue declining because prices are below the 27.05 resistance point, and wave (2) has already ended and started declining in waves (3). We expect prices to drop to 2.618% at 20.02, but for now,
Commodity soybean idea (20/09/2022)soybean
We expect a drop in the soybean commodity in the coming period since trading is less than the crucial point 1509. Currently, we expect to complete the correction in wave ((ii)), which may reach prices of 1471 or 1480 before declining again.
GOLD Volatility Forecast 19-24 Sep 2022GOLD Volatility Forecast 19-24 Sep 2022
The current implied volatility is +-36.6$ from the current opening of the weekly candle, 1674$
With this in mind, we have a 80% chance that the market is going to stay within the range:
TOP: 1711
BOT: 1637
At the same time, we can see that the average weekly candle, is around 1.5 - 1.75%
From the technical analysis POV, we can see that our asset is above EMA 50/100/200.
From the volume POV, we can see that currently CMF level is on the negative side, indicading a stronger seller positions.
I believe we are to go towards 1650 initially, where probably we are going to meet some resistence, but if we manage to break this part, probably we can go twaords 1640 - 1630.
WTI 19th of SeptemberWTI, after the breakout of the pattern, reached without any problem our target, the supply zone above it.
XAU/USD 19th of September Gold, after a huge bearish trend, started a consolidation period. The consolidation period was our key level to identify a new possible trend. Price thanks also to fundamental analysis, started an uptrend.
Gold is meltingthe short move is started, and it is a great opportunity to move with it.
good luck
Arya The Trader
WTI 15th of September WTI, after the breakout of the pattern drawn, made a retest before the beginning of a bullish trend .
GOLD - Video Top-Down Analysis!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
Here is a detailed update top-down analysis for GOLD.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and Why?
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
WTI 14th of SeptemberWTI amazing setup. The price, once broke the pattern, made a retest on the demand zone before starting the uptrend.
USOIL Simple Head and Shoulder Pattern BreakoutIt has formed a simple Head and Shoulder pattern in a 1 Hr time frame, we can look for retest entries in the lower time frame for going long. Here I went long at the retest of break out entry and booked 1:4 profit.
Wheat Bouncing Wheat's setup looks great on the daily chart. Bouncing off of dynamic support (depicted in orange) nicely.
MACD turning positive.
Next target is 937'6.
As always this is not financial advice. Good luck.
WTI 8th September WTI has been amazing. After the breakout of the pattern, price bounced on the demand zone and a new uptrend started.
Lumber Prices May Run Higher if Bulls Defend the 2021 Low Lumber prices are trading near their 2021 low as prices extend a multi-week losing streak. A break below 452.2 would likely induce further weakness, and the chart setup appears biased for more pain. However, if bulls defend that level, a Falling Wedge offers a potential breakout chance, but it would first require prices to rise to and break wedge resistance.
XAUUSD Outlook (7 September 2022)Gold finds the downside again.
Following the brief climb to the 1720 price area, Gold has reversed strongly back towards the 1700 level.
With the current and anticipated strength of the DXY, Gold could continue trading lower beyond the 1700 level towards the 1680 key support level.
But as per the DXY analysis, a deep retrace could be expected, which could also lead to the price of Gold bouncing strongly from the 1680 support level back towards the 1720 and 1730 resistance area.
GOLD Forecast: Top-down analysis Key point to remember:
Traders are 85% Net Long, and 15% Net Short.
Monthly Chart
The price has been dropping for 5 months, forming a double top, which is a bearish reversal pattern that signals an upcoming 3 level trend. The trend will be fully confirmed once the price has bearish broke and retested the Monthly Neckline 3 together with the 50 and bearish crossed short-term moving averages. That will not only signal to us an upcoming a 3 level trend but also a drop to the 200 moving average and ascending trend line. On the other hand, the price might reverse into a bullish uptrend to the previous bullish head and shoulder patterns 3rd level. The price is currently running in its 2nd level. If the price bearish bounces off the Monthly Neckline 3 and 50 moving averages with a bullish reversal pattern that leads the price to bullish break and retest its neckline or the Monthly Neckline together with bullish crossed short-term moving averages, that will trigger the bullish signal.
Weekly Chart
The price is currently running in the double tops 2nd level, below the bearish crossed short-term moving averages and in between the long-term moving averages. Having the price in the 2nd level, signals a possible bearish trend-continuation to the double tops 3rd level. That continuation will be fully confirmed once the price has dropped to bearish break and retest the Monthly Neckline 3. If the price bounces off the Weekly H&S Neckline with a bullish reversal candle pattern that leads the following candles to rally to break and retest the Weekly Neckline 3 together with the 8 moving average, that will dis-confirm the bearish bias but in prep to trigger a bullish signal.
As you can see from both chart images above, these timeframes are in sync. The monthly is in a bearish trend that's forming the double tops 2nd leg. The weekly is the one that has been and still is guiding the full formation of the monthly's double top with its double top trend. If the monthly bounces off triggers the bullish signal that will be confirmed by the weekly's 3rd level bullish reversal pattern or its bullish signal key level that I mentioned earlier. Furthermore, it both timeframes price and patterns form below the Monthly Neckline 3 and 50 moving average, the monthly will trigger is bearish trend signal that will be confirmed by the weekly's extended move after it has formed its level 3.
Daily Chart
The daily is currently running in the bearish half a bats 2nd level and below all the moving averages. Having the price in this zone, signals that there's still a probability for a bearish trend-continuation for the patterns 3rd level. That continuation will be confirmed by a bearish reversal candle close below the Mini Daily Half a Bat Neckline and 8 moving average. If the price rejects that signal, and bullish breaks and retests the signal key levels, that will trigger a bullish signal (as illustrated by the arrows).
As you can see from the daily and weekly chart images, they're also in sync (just like how the monthly and weekly are). Getting back to the weekly, we saw that the price has been dropping in the 2nd level; that drop was and still is guided by the daily's half a bat pattern. Not only the market maker patterns were the ones guiding the drop, but also the moving averages. The weekly 8 moving average forms part of the daily's 50 moving average. The bearish break and retest of both time frames moving averages plus the bounce we are waiting for on the daily 8 moving average with a bearish reversal candle pattern, will fully confirm the trend-continuation of all the time frames.
That's it for today. I hope you found value in this forecast. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section or (if you prefer) in private, I'd love to know your thoughts!
Stay Blessed,
Sphatrades.
USOIL Sep 2022 W.1: F&T ForecastFundamental Forecast
-There are several stories unfolding in the energy space that should keep volatility elevated across energy markets, none of which are likely to find any permanent resolution anytime soon.
-Net-long positioning in the oil futures market remains near its yearly low, and its lowest level since August 2016.
-The IG Client Sentiment Index suggests that crude oil prices have a mixed trading bias
Technical Forecast
The trade ideas are derived from the both the monthly and weekly time frames. On the monthly, the price recently closed with a bearish candle below the mini double top neckline and in between the short-term moving averages, dis-confirming the bullish half a bat pattern and the moving averages bullish trend, in confirming a bearish drop for the 3rd Monthly Key Lvl/Monthly Neckline 3 together with the 21/50 moving averages.
Monthly Chart:
Weekly Chart rundown:
As you see in the first chart image, we're looking a 3 possible scenarios that will either confirm or disconfirm the bearish bias. Starting with how it will be rejected, the price will do so after it has bullish broke and retested the Weekly Neckline together with the 50 and 8 moving average. If it bounces off the 2nd Daily Key with a bearish candle formation that leads the price to bearish break and retest the 1st Weekly Key Lvl either on the current or lower time frame, that will trigger and fully confirm the bearish trend.
That's it for today. I hope you gained value from this trade idea. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section. I'd love to know your thoughts!
Stay Blessed,
Sphatrades.
Commodity Cocoa idea (01/09/2022)cocoa
Expecting the continuation of the rise in Cocoa in the coming period, and this rise depends on the continuation of trading above the support point 2315 and the end of wave ((ii)), and the beginning of the rise in wave ((iii)) targeting prices of 2741
XAUUSD Outlook (30 August 2022)As the DXY found a steady climb to the upside, Gold reversed from the 1800 resistance level to trade significantly lower to find strong support at the 1720 price level.
Gold first rebounded at the 1730 level to restest the 50% fib and price level of 1765 before trading lower again.
Currently, as the price rebounds from the support of 1720, look for Gold to retest the 61.8% fib level and 1750 price level before a continuation of the downtrend.
If Gold breaks below the immediate support level of 1720, the next support level is at 1710, and a key support level at 1680.
