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Commodity

Descending Triangle on Soybean Oil, Target at 3755Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 4-Hour Chart. The commodity soybean oil (SOYUSD) is in a descending triangle setup pattern. The resistance line is seen with lower highs on 7200 and 6495 respectively. The support line is observed around 5450. A breakdown in support will take SOYUSD towards 3755. A negation of this pattern will be seen if the commodity breaks above the resistance trend line, above 6490. Soybean Oil is in a sell mode as it approaches support around 5450 on the longer termed Daily chart. Technical Indicators The technical indicators are bearish for SOYUSD. There has been negative crossovers on the short (50-MA), medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) fractal moving averages. The RSI is trading below 50 and there has been a negative crossover on the KST as the commodity’s price approaches support. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go short at market, with a stop loss at 6490 and a target of 3755. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.68. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time of publishing I have exposure to Soybean Oil.
FOREXCOM:SOYUSDShort
by Ceddy86
1
Wheat Completes Head and Shoulders Pattern, Target at 865Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 15 Min Chart. There appears to be a completed head and shoulders price pattern on the commodity Wheat. The left shoulder is around the low of 750.38, the head made a low of 750.38 and the right shoulder made a low of 757. The pattern is not at its original designation however appears to be a positive sign nonetheless. The neckline stands at the 779.37 and 779.87 highs. The completion of this pattern takes the commodity towards current price levels at the time of publishing. Expectations are for the trend in the commodity to continue towards 865. A stop loss order has been placed at 766, below Wheat’s neckline. The Point and Figure Chart corroborates this bullish view. There was a close above the short (30-MA) medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) moving averages. There has also been positive crossovers on these respective MAs. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) is above 0 and green and the RSI is above 50. The chart indicates that Wheat can rally towards 860. The Daily chart shows a breakout of 804 resistance. Closing above this level indicates a bullish move for the commodity. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 766 and a target of 865. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.73. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time of publishing I have exposure to Wheat.
FX:WHEATFLong
by Ceddy86
OIL intraday Long..Press the Follow Button to get More of my Daily Detailed Analysis. Also, if you do have any questions, please ask them in the comments section.. US OIL has arrived at some intraday support for Long Trades. This is ideal if you have previously been short OR are still holding shorts. These areas are ideal to take Alternate gains. Long Term we are still looking to accumulate Trades on the Short side before Market sentiment changes. Look to exit towards highs at KEY resistance that is newly formed.
TVC:USOILLong
by WillSebastian
LONG TO 1864 (TP SMASHED)If you scroll through my channel, you'd see I previously uploaded the analysis for this Gold long to 1864 end of last week. Today we finally smashed our 600 PIP TP. Gold market has been absolutely crazy this week! I will be analysing the markets now for the week ahead and uploading it on my channel so feel free to drop a follow and let me know what you think. All of my socials are listed on my TradingView profile. Feel free to follow my TradingView in order to keep up to date with all the latest analysis. Drop a like if you agree with this chart analysis or let me know what you think!
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by BA_Investments
1
XAUUSD SHORT TO 1774I have re-analysed the market by looking at the overall bigger picture on Gold and here is my current short bias on Gold. We've seen Gold start a new mid-term uptrend these past 2 weeks shooting up roughly 500 PIPS. Price has started losing bullish momentum indicating that sellers will be stepping into the market soon. This has given be a better picture showing that Gold will start heading down soon. I am expecting Wave 3 to end here and see a correction down towards 1820-1814 as Wave 4. Then one final wave up (Wave 5) towards 1837-1843 before we finally see Gold start melting towards 1774 in order to complete Wave C of the overall bullish correction. All of my socials are listed on my TradingView profile. Feel free to follow my TradingView in order to keep up to date with all the latest analysis. Drop a like if you agree with this chart analysis or let me know what you think!
SAXO:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
1
XAUUSD SHORT TO 1820Gold has been flying up since the start of the week and creating very choppy price action on the way. I am expecting a corrective phase from current market price, down towards 1820 in the form of an A,B,C Elliott Wave form in order to fill the imbalance. All of my socials are listed on my TradingView profile. Feel free to follow my TradingView in order to keep up to date with all the latest analysis. Drop a like if you agree with this chart analysis or let me know what you think!
SAXO:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
WTI crude - the trend is higher but risks are increasing With OPEC meeting out Wednesday both Brent and WTI crude are front and centre this week – we also know higher crude prices are key for inflation expectations, and the move into $90 has supported US 5Y5Y swaps at 2.48%. Traders are buying into crude to hedge against sustainably high inflation, but It feels like the market is long of crude as a hedge against geopolitical issues in Ukraine and the perception of supply being impacted. Demand is still a positive factor, with views Q1 22 should see a 6.8% increase in demand, followed by 5.9% in Q2 – Along with low inventories and reduced spare capacity, these are two clear factors promoting analysts to increase Brent forecasts above $100, with a belief demand increases to 100mbd and the belief we could head into deficit this year. Looking at output, it feels almost a given that OPEC will hike output by 400,000 bpd at this meeting – with prices above $90 clearly if they don’t lift output as planned then the oil market will fly – but that would be a huge surprise. Could they hike by more than 400k? Perhaps, but I think OPEC will be happy that while we have seen a lift in the US rig count, and we haven’t seen a sharp pick-up in market share from US share producers. We also know there are nations such as Nigeria and Angola which aren’t producing as much as they can. Looking at futures holdings through managed money, the market is certainly long of crude but not at extremes. We also see steep backwardation in the futures curve, and traders are incentivized to be long to pick up carry from rolling down the curve upon expiration. We assess the risk to reward trade-off – firstly, let's consider crude has closed higher for six straight weeks. We saw seven consecutive weeks in September before we saw a 27% correction into $62.90, so the risks are moving towards another downside move. Last week we also saw a bullish engulfing, so its clear there is strong demand to buy weakness and flow is still bullish – so if we do see sellers into the mix, then last weeks low of $82.42 comes into play. On the daily, price is holding the 5-day EMA, so a close below here would spark interest, as would a rollback below breakout high of $85.75. A break here should see crude into $79.31 (the 38.2% fibo of the Nov/Jan rally), but it feels that on current dynamics this should contain the selling.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDE
by Pepperstone
15