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When Might The Price Of Natural Gas Decompress?Traders that have taken a long position on Natural Gas will have been feeling lighter than air for the better part of 2021. Remarkably, the trading price of Natural Gas has rocketed up 115% since the beginning of the year, outperforming price increases in other commodities currently sitting close to record highs, Oats (up by 63.83% YTD), Copper (up by 19.65% YTD), and steel (up by 38.27% YTD). As of writing, Natural Gas is trading at $5.592 per million British thermal units, a thirteen year high for the commodity. What Is The Reason For The Meteoric Rise In Natural Gas An unusually scorching 2021 summer in the US drove demand for air conditioning and Natural Gas beyond normal levels, resulting in a lower stockpile of the commodity for an unusually cold winter. Following this, extreme weather conditions, such as Hurricane Ida, interrupted Natural Gas extraction in the Gulf of Mexico’s most productive zone. Will The Price Of Natural Gas Recede? Typically, when the price of a commodity rises, new investment will enter the market to scoop up the high prices. Regarding Natural Gas, the new investment could be from gas companies lifting output at existing gas wells or exploring new wells that will raise production. Counter-productively, the new investment and resulting lift in gas supply would help suppress the price rises in the commodity. New investment in Natural Gas has stalled as of late. While fossil fuels will still be needed for a long time, so-called ‘Zero Carbon’ policies from governing bodies worldwide are disincentivising Natural Gas exploration. The long-term prospects of Natural Gas wells are less certain and less attractive when contending with the likes of the Biden Administration throwing its full support behind renewable energy sources as the US engages in a wide-scale upgrade to its infrastructure. One project for the Biden Administration is for the US electric grid to be powered by 50% solar within the next thirty years. Achieving this goal would severely squeeze demand for Natural Gas, which, according to the EPA, generated approximately 40% of the country’s electricity in 2020.
N
by BlackBull_Markets
Gold Potential Breakout Continuation Above 1,7571. Price crossed above the 1,757 level last week and stabilized. We did see a price drift back below this level and selling momentum did not pick up. 2. This leads to this week's outlook. If price can hold above the 1,757 level, we can expect further upside as price continues with the momentum from last week. I don't anticipate a sharp cross below this level, unless some fundamental news comes out. A slightly more likely scenario is if this price action fizzles if the level isn't respected for this week's open.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FinancialGamblR
Descending Triangle in Natural Gas, Downside Target of 4.70Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 15-Min Chart. The commodity Natural Gas is currently in a descending triangle setup with lower highs around the 5.20 and 5.08 price levels and support observed around the 4.95 price level. If the commodity breaks through the 4.95 support it can head towards the 4.70 price level. Failure of this pattern will occur if Natural Gas were to rally above 5.10. Technical Indicators The commodity is currently trading below is short (50-MA), medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) fractal moving averages. There has been negative crossovers on the short and medium as well as the medium and long term moving averages. These moves are bearish indications. To corroborate these signals of upcoming declines are the RSI being below the 50 level as well as a recent negative crossover in the KST. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go short at market, with a stop loss at 5.10 and a target of 4.70. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 2.31. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes.
NShort
by Ceddy86
ASX:FMGThe recent drop in iron ore prices has seen the major mining companies being beaten down, the selling has now reached panic proportions and of all the big miners Fortescue has faired the worst. While I am not saying this is a good time to buy, as iron ore prices still have fundamental head winds to contend with and the prices can certainly move much lower before smaller miners are forced out the market and the supply glut begins to dissipate. However expect some consolidation or a small bounce within the highlighted zone before any moves lower are made. This zone will be the first major test for bulls if the can keep prices around the $15.00 mark and a floor develops in the next few months in iron ore prices this could develop into a good buying opportunity. Don't be surprised though if price consolidates before moving lower to one of the highlighted support zones. *Not a recommendation to buy or sell, simply for educational purposes*
ASX:FMG
by MarkE
2
Palladium Back At $2,000!Following the peak of the Covid pandemic in March 2020 when price declined by 48%, price turned around and gradually moved back to the upside, eventually breaching the all-time high 11 months later. In May 2021, price created a new all-time high at $3,017 before heading back down towards the weekly 50 simple moving average. The 50 simple moving average was an important catalyst in the growth of price and appeared as though is was going to hold as support again in August 2021. Price breached this indicator and has since moved further down to the next obvious level of support: the psychological $2,000 round number. If this support zone holds strong, we should soon see a bounce back to the upside and a bull trend resumption. The bigger picture shows us that price is in a long-term period of consolidation, which began in February 2020. The all-time high in May 2021 was just a fake breakout. For now, this commodity will likely prove challenging to invest in, so the safest option is to wait for a break and close above the all-time high at $3,017 before considering any long opportunities. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:PALLADIUM
by Sublime_Trading
Sugar 1-day classic patternsQ: What has the highest probability of occurring? There are bearish pattern failures followed by bullish pattern validations into an uptrend. There are 2 classic patterns 1 is validated the other has not validated. The cup & handle is in breakout and is approaching its target. The pattern projects $0.2175 per pound as the target. The bull flag is not validated. This pattern projects $0.2200 per pound as the target. Objectively $0.20 per pound is a psychological resistance level. The price for a pound of sugar has increased and the breakout from bullish patterns coinciding with the failure of bearish patterns reflect this. Volatility is declining and the rate of change has dropped below 0. Declining fear and a break in the trend's momentum. Since the cup and handle has validated the bias is for long positions. Confirmation of the bull flag provides a starting point for trend continuation.
OANDA:SUGARUSDLong
by xciiitradingco
Potential Break in Brent Crude Oil Towards 74.25Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 15-Min Chart. The consolidation in Brent Crude Oil over the last couple of days has produced 2 chart pattern setups, a Rectangle as well as a Reverse Head and Shoulders. Resistance for the Rectangle is around the 72.50 price level while support is seen at the 70.85 price level, which is also the Head of the Head and Shoulders pattern. The Left and Right Shoulders are around the 71.35 price level while the Neckline is around the 72.30 resistance. The completion of these chart patterns will take the commodity between 73.65 and 74.25. Technical Indicators Brent Crude Oil is trending higher as it is currently above its short (25-MA), medium (75-MA) and long (200-MA) fractal moving averages. Also the short MA is above both the medium and long term MA and the medium term MA is above the long term MA. This denotes an uptrend over the respective timeframe. The RSI is above 50 and there has been a positive crossover on the KST. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go long at market. Stop loss will be set around the 70.80 price level and a target of 74.25. This produces a risk-reward ratio of 1.12. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in Brent Crude Oil.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by Ceddy86
GOLD GOLD 4H time frame GOLD at the moment is looking great heading towards a past resistance at 1907.16. I predict it will be rejected once again before gold comes down slightly before pushing again which i think will break through the resistance and will be on its way to its past and future support at 1907.16 If you like my analysis and brief give it a thumbs up. If you have any questions about my analysis or brief please feel free to leave a comment below or send me a direct message. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE THE CRYPTO PLANET
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by TheCryptoPlanet9
Silver Bullish Up Side, Dont miss the buy Hi traders: Was on a mini vacation during the week, so not many posts from me :) However, still in both of my EURUSD positions and manage get in on Silver as well. We can see after the bearish impulse down, price didn't not form continuation to go down further, instead, its a bullish reversal impulse phase. Then price begin to form into a bigger flag/channel correction to correct the bullish up move, good sign of a continuation price action. After a few swings highs and lows, double bottoms, price pushed up, and created a smaller bullish continuation correction. Look for further upside with any lower time frame continuation price action to push the price higher to the swing highs as potential target. thank you
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by jojofang0901
25
Elliott Wave Analysis And Correlation Between OIL and CADJPYHello traders! Today we will talk about Crude oil and its positive correlation with CADJPY currency pair. As you can see, Crude oil and CADJPY are in tight positive correlation and both made a complex W-X-Y corrective decline from the highs with nice and strong support from April/May. The main reason why they are correlated is because Canada has one of the largest OIL reserves, that's why CAD is strong when OIL is up. If we also consider risk-on sentiment, where OIL is bullish and JP yen currency bearish, then we get that result. Well, respecting the price action and wave structures, with current strong and impulsive rebound, it looks like a correction within uptrend can be completed and we can expect further rally at least in three waves, so more upside can be seen after a short-term pullback, maybe even back to highs. Be humble and trade smart! If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Long
by ew-forecast
2
Crude Oil Correction - Another US Policy MisstepIn early July 2021, nearby NYMEX crude oil futures rose to the highest price since 2014 after rising to a high of $76.98 per barrel. The price eclipsed the October 2018 $76.90 high by only eight cents. The crude oil futures market ran out of upside steam at the early July high and has made lower highs over the past seven weeks. At around the $62 per barrel level at the end of last week, the September futures contract was in a short-term bearish trend. Meanwhile, over the past year, the energy commodity made great strides on the upside. Virus variants and China weigh on the energy commodity US energy policy is bullish for crude oil A bull market since April 20, 2020 The US administration and crude oil- Comedy or Tragedy? Levels to watch in crude oil The most recent selling reflects a long-overdue correction. The slowing Chinese economy, along with other factors, is likely weighing on crude oil. Crude oil futures take the stairs to the upside during rallies and an elevator lower when the price corrects. While we could see lower prices over the coming weeks and months, the underlying support issues facing the energy commodity suggest that it is not a time to become too bearish on petroleum as it continues to power the world. Virus variants weigh on the energy commodity As the delta variant of COVID-19 spreads throughout the unvaccinated population, with reports of some breakthrough cases in those who received vaccines, economic activity has begun the slow. Fears of a return of widespread cases have caused economic growth to slow. Meanwhile, China has cracked down on some sectors of its business sector that raise capital in the west, causing its economy to cool over the past weeks. The demand for energy has begun to decline, sending the crude oil price to its lowest level since late May over the past week. The chart of the now active month October NYMEX crude oil futures highlights the decline from a high of $74.77 per barrel on July 6. In July and August, crude oil has made lower highs and lower lows, falling to $61.82 on August 20, the lowest price since May 21. The next level of technical support stands at the May 21 $60.68 low on October futures. Open interest, the total number of open long and short positions in the NYMEX crude oil futures market, has declined from 2.414 million contracts on July 6. The decline reflects long liquidation. Falling price and declining open interest are not typically a technical validation of an emerging bearish trend. Price momentum and relative strength indicators have dropped to oversold territory. As crude oil has been correcting slowly and not taking an elevator shaft lower, daily historical volatility was just below 27% on August 20. Over the past week, the prospects for higher US interest rates lifted the US dollar index to its highest level in 2021. The dollar index rose over the 93.47 March high. A stronger dollar tends to weigh on commodity prices, and crude oil is no exception. However, the Fed canceled its in-person Jackson Hole event, citing the rising number of delta variant cases. We will soon find out if the central bank decides to stall tapering quantitative easing because of the virus. A prolonged period of inflationary monetary policy could cause raw material prices to resume their ascent. US energy policy is bullish for crude oil President Biden pledged to address climate change during his 2020 campaign. Following that promise, he canceled the Keystone XL pipeline project on his first day in office by issuing an executive order. In May, the administration banned oil and gas drilling and fracking on federal lands in Alaska. While crude oil demand has been booming over the past months, US output stood at 11.4 million barrels per day as of August 13, 13% below the record high of 13.1 mbpd in March 2020. Meanwhile, US crude oil and oil product inventories have declined in 2021. According to the American Petroleum Institute, US crude oil stockpiles declined by 51.508 million barrels from January 1 through August 13, 2021. Gasoline stocks were 4.9509 million barrels lower, and distillate inventories dropped by 9.571 million barrels. The Energy Information Administration data shows a 57.8 million barrel drop in crude oil stocks, with gasoline inventories 8.4 million barrels lower so far this year. Distillates have declined by 13.9 million barrels. US daily production has increased from 11.0 mbpd to 11.4 mbpd since early January, but it is insufficient to keep stockpiles from falling. US energy policy is weighing on output as increased regulations, and a shift to a greener path for powering the US causes fossil fuel production to decline. Meanwhile, crude oil and oil product prices have moved substantially higher in 2021: Nearby NYMEX crude oil futures closed 2020 at $48.42 per barrel. At $62.32 per barrel on August 20, the energy commodity was over 28.7% higher even after the recent correction. Nearby NYMEX gasoline futures closed 2020 at $1.4238 per gallon. At $2.0236 on August 20, the fuel was 32.1% higher for the year. Nearby NYMEX heating oil futures, a proxy for distillate prices, settled at $1.4832 per gallon at the end of December 2020. At $1.9082 on August 20, distillate prices rose by 28.7%. While the US is on a greener path of energy production or consumption, the US and the world continue to rely on crude oil and oil products for power. For decades, the US struggled to achieve energy independence from the Middle East, home to over half the world’s crude oil reserves. Over the past years, rising shale production and a drill-baby-drill and frack-baby-frack policy caused the US to take the leadership role in output, achieving its goal. The change in energy policy under the Biden administration has shifted crude oil’s pricing power back to OPEC and the cartel’s partner, Russia. As the Saudi oil minister said earlier this year, “Drill-baby-drill is gone forever.” A bull market since April 20, 2020 At the height of the global pandemic, energy demand evaporated. Nearby Brent crude oil futures fell to the lowest price of this century at $16 per barrel. NYMEX futures fell below zero as the landlocked crude oil ran out of storage as inventories exploded. As the monthly chart shows, at over the $62 level on August 20, 2021, crude oil futures remain over $100 per barrel higher than the April 20, 2020, negative $40.32 low. While the nearby futures have corrected by nearly $15 since the early July high, they remain in a bullish trend since the April 2020 low. The US administration and crude oil- Comedy or Tragedy? If the Biden administration should have learned anything from the current debacle in Afghanistan, timing is everything. The administration misjudged the Taliban’s ability to swoop across the country’s 34 provinces and capture its capital, Kabul, in short order. Transporting US citizens and Afghanis that assisted the US became a tragic chapter for the world’s wealthiest nation and leading military power. Two weeks ago, before crude oil corrected, the Biden administration appealed to OPEC+ to produce more oil as gasoline prices had risen to multi-year highs. Opposition party Republicans and environmentalists noted that the President casts himself as a climate warrior moving the US towards cleaner energy to protect the planet. The request for OPEC to increase output only makes sense if their production comes from sources away from the earth. After suffering under increasing shale production over the past years, OPEC+ does not have the US’s best interests at heart. The cartel is more likely to structure production policy to squeeze US consumers. After all, producing one barrel at $100 yields a better return than two at the $40 level. The Biden administration has been in office for the past seven months. Immigration, Afghanistan, and energy policies have been far from successes over the period. One sector of the market could benefit from the events transpiring in Afghanistan. With banks closed, one of the few ways people can leave with life savings is to protect them in computer wallets in the cloud. Cryptos allow for transport on flash drives or access in other areas of the world via a secure password. Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, posted gains over the past five consecutive weeks. The correction after the parabolic rally found a bottom. Flight capital is another reason supporting cryptos in a volatile world. Levels to watch in crude oil US energy policy remains bullish, despite the current correction in the crude oil futures market. OPEC and the Russians are not likely to cooperate with the Biden administration and heed the call for more output. They are more likely to cut production given the foreign policy tensions and signs of weakness in Afghanistan. The NYMEX crude oil’s weekly chart shows support levels at $61.56, $57.25, and $33.64 per barrel. As crude oil is heading towards the end of the driving season, delta variant cases are rising, and the US and Chinese economies are slowing, a deeper correction is possible. Meanwhile, with OPEC+ back in control of the marginal oil barrel, the medium and long-term prospects for the energy commodity remain bullish. I expect higher highs in crude oil in 2022 and beyond. US energy policy towards a greener path will change the oil market’s dynamics over the coming decades. Still, as petroleum continues to power the world in the medium term, the move to protecting the planet will lift oil’s price and fill OPEC+’s pockets over the coming years. I am short crude oil from a trend-following perspective, but US energy policy is likely to cause the fossil fuel to find a bottom at a higher level over the coming weeks. Follow those trends, they are your only friends. ----- Use the link below to sign up for free early access to articles. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Andy_Hecht
27
Gold in a Double Top Setup with a Target of 1720Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 15-Min Chart. The precious metal Gold is currently exhibiting a double top pattern setup, with the resistance area around the 1795 price level. The metal is currently testing 1780 support. If support holds, it may be temporary and the metal will find resistance around the downward trend line highlighted in red. If support breaks, it is expected that the trend reversal will continue, taking Gold towards 1720. Failure of this pattern would be observed if the precious metal breaks above 1800. Technical Indicators Currently Gold is trading below its short (25-MA), medium (75-MA) and long (200-MA) fractal moving averages. The key identifier in the change in trend is the break below the 200-MA. The RSI is also trading below 50 as the metal tests support. The longer timeframed KST is also in a negative zone, which is bearish for Gold. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go short at market. Stop loss will be set around the 1800 price level and a target of 1720. This produces a risk-reward ratio of 3.69. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in Gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Ceddy86
Broadening Pattern in Soybean Futures with a Target of 1440Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour Chart. Soybean Futures is experiencing a broadening pattern in the respective timeframe. This pattern comes with increased volatility as the trendlines are expanding outward. It is projected that the commodity will rally towards 1440, around the sighting of a gap lower. An indicative stop loss is set at around 1325, a little below the support trend line. Technical Indicators There has been a bullish crossover on the short (25-MA) and medium (75-MA) fractal moving averages. Soybean futures are also above the respective MAs. The RSI is above the 50 level with the KST having a positive Crossover. These are all bullish indicators for the commodity. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go long at market. Stop loss will be set around the 1325 price level and a target of 1440. This produces a risk-reward ratio of 2.46. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in Soybean futures.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Ceddy86