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Sugar 1-day classic patternsQ: What has the highest probability of occurring? There are bearish pattern failures followed by bullish pattern validations into an uptrend. There are 2 classic patterns 1 is validated the other has not validated. The cup & handle is in breakout and is approaching its target. The pattern projects $0.2175 per pound as the target. The bull flag is not validated. This pattern projects $0.2200 per pound as the target. Objectively $0.20 per pound is a psychological resistance level. The price for a pound of sugar has increased and the breakout from bullish patterns coinciding with the failure of bearish patterns reflect this. Volatility is declining and the rate of change has dropped below 0. Declining fear and a break in the trend's momentum. Since the cup and handle has validated the bias is for long positions. Confirmation of the bull flag provides a starting point for trend continuation.
OANDA:SUGARUSDLong
by xciiitradingco
Potential Break in Brent Crude Oil Towards 74.25Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 15-Min Chart. The consolidation in Brent Crude Oil over the last couple of days has produced 2 chart pattern setups, a Rectangle as well as a Reverse Head and Shoulders. Resistance for the Rectangle is around the 72.50 price level while support is seen at the 70.85 price level, which is also the Head of the Head and Shoulders pattern. The Left and Right Shoulders are around the 71.35 price level while the Neckline is around the 72.30 resistance. The completion of these chart patterns will take the commodity between 73.65 and 74.25. Technical Indicators Brent Crude Oil is trending higher as it is currently above its short (25-MA), medium (75-MA) and long (200-MA) fractal moving averages. Also the short MA is above both the medium and long term MA and the medium term MA is above the long term MA. This denotes an uptrend over the respective timeframe. The RSI is above 50 and there has been a positive crossover on the KST. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go long at market. Stop loss will be set around the 70.80 price level and a target of 74.25. This produces a risk-reward ratio of 1.12. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in Brent Crude Oil.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by Ceddy86
GOLD GOLD 4H time frame GOLD at the moment is looking great heading towards a past resistance at 1907.16. I predict it will be rejected once again before gold comes down slightly before pushing again which i think will break through the resistance and will be on its way to its past and future support at 1907.16 If you like my analysis and brief give it a thumbs up. If you have any questions about my analysis or brief please feel free to leave a comment below or send me a direct message. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE THE CRYPTO PLANET
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by TheCryptoPlanet9
Silver Bullish Up Side, Dont miss the buy Hi traders: Was on a mini vacation during the week, so not many posts from me :) However, still in both of my EURUSD positions and manage get in on Silver as well. We can see after the bearish impulse down, price didn't not form continuation to go down further, instead, its a bullish reversal impulse phase. Then price begin to form into a bigger flag/channel correction to correct the bullish up move, good sign of a continuation price action. After a few swings highs and lows, double bottoms, price pushed up, and created a smaller bullish continuation correction. Look for further upside with any lower time frame continuation price action to push the price higher to the swing highs as potential target. thank you
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by jojofang0901
25
Elliott Wave Analysis And Correlation Between OIL and CADJPYHello traders! Today we will talk about Crude oil and its positive correlation with CADJPY currency pair. As you can see, Crude oil and CADJPY are in tight positive correlation and both made a complex W-X-Y corrective decline from the highs with nice and strong support from April/May. The main reason why they are correlated is because Canada has one of the largest OIL reserves, that's why CAD is strong when OIL is up. If we also consider risk-on sentiment, where OIL is bullish and JP yen currency bearish, then we get that result. Well, respecting the price action and wave structures, with current strong and impulsive rebound, it looks like a correction within uptrend can be completed and we can expect further rally at least in three waves, so more upside can be seen after a short-term pullback, maybe even back to highs. Be humble and trade smart! If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Long
by ew-forecast
2
Crude Oil Correction - Another US Policy MisstepIn early July 2021, nearby NYMEX crude oil futures rose to the highest price since 2014 after rising to a high of $76.98 per barrel. The price eclipsed the October 2018 $76.90 high by only eight cents. The crude oil futures market ran out of upside steam at the early July high and has made lower highs over the past seven weeks. At around the $62 per barrel level at the end of last week, the September futures contract was in a short-term bearish trend. Meanwhile, over the past year, the energy commodity made great strides on the upside. Virus variants and China weigh on the energy commodity US energy policy is bullish for crude oil A bull market since April 20, 2020 The US administration and crude oil- Comedy or Tragedy? Levels to watch in crude oil The most recent selling reflects a long-overdue correction. The slowing Chinese economy, along with other factors, is likely weighing on crude oil. Crude oil futures take the stairs to the upside during rallies and an elevator lower when the price corrects. While we could see lower prices over the coming weeks and months, the underlying support issues facing the energy commodity suggest that it is not a time to become too bearish on petroleum as it continues to power the world. Virus variants weigh on the energy commodity As the delta variant of COVID-19 spreads throughout the unvaccinated population, with reports of some breakthrough cases in those who received vaccines, economic activity has begun the slow. Fears of a return of widespread cases have caused economic growth to slow. Meanwhile, China has cracked down on some sectors of its business sector that raise capital in the west, causing its economy to cool over the past weeks. The demand for energy has begun to decline, sending the crude oil price to its lowest level since late May over the past week. The chart of the now active month October NYMEX crude oil futures highlights the decline from a high of $74.77 per barrel on July 6. In July and August, crude oil has made lower highs and lower lows, falling to $61.82 on August 20, the lowest price since May 21. The next level of technical support stands at the May 21 $60.68 low on October futures. Open interest, the total number of open long and short positions in the NYMEX crude oil futures market, has declined from 2.414 million contracts on July 6. The decline reflects long liquidation. Falling price and declining open interest are not typically a technical validation of an emerging bearish trend. Price momentum and relative strength indicators have dropped to oversold territory. As crude oil has been correcting slowly and not taking an elevator shaft lower, daily historical volatility was just below 27% on August 20. Over the past week, the prospects for higher US interest rates lifted the US dollar index to its highest level in 2021. The dollar index rose over the 93.47 March high. A stronger dollar tends to weigh on commodity prices, and crude oil is no exception. However, the Fed canceled its in-person Jackson Hole event, citing the rising number of delta variant cases. We will soon find out if the central bank decides to stall tapering quantitative easing because of the virus. A prolonged period of inflationary monetary policy could cause raw material prices to resume their ascent. US energy policy is bullish for crude oil President Biden pledged to address climate change during his 2020 campaign. Following that promise, he canceled the Keystone XL pipeline project on his first day in office by issuing an executive order. In May, the administration banned oil and gas drilling and fracking on federal lands in Alaska. While crude oil demand has been booming over the past months, US output stood at 11.4 million barrels per day as of August 13, 13% below the record high of 13.1 mbpd in March 2020. Meanwhile, US crude oil and oil product inventories have declined in 2021. According to the American Petroleum Institute, US crude oil stockpiles declined by 51.508 million barrels from January 1 through August 13, 2021. Gasoline stocks were 4.9509 million barrels lower, and distillate inventories dropped by 9.571 million barrels. The Energy Information Administration data shows a 57.8 million barrel drop in crude oil stocks, with gasoline inventories 8.4 million barrels lower so far this year. Distillates have declined by 13.9 million barrels. US daily production has increased from 11.0 mbpd to 11.4 mbpd since early January, but it is insufficient to keep stockpiles from falling. US energy policy is weighing on output as increased regulations, and a shift to a greener path for powering the US causes fossil fuel production to decline. Meanwhile, crude oil and oil product prices have moved substantially higher in 2021: Nearby NYMEX crude oil futures closed 2020 at $48.42 per barrel. At $62.32 per barrel on August 20, the energy commodity was over 28.7% higher even after the recent correction. Nearby NYMEX gasoline futures closed 2020 at $1.4238 per gallon. At $2.0236 on August 20, the fuel was 32.1% higher for the year. Nearby NYMEX heating oil futures, a proxy for distillate prices, settled at $1.4832 per gallon at the end of December 2020. At $1.9082 on August 20, distillate prices rose by 28.7%. While the US is on a greener path of energy production or consumption, the US and the world continue to rely on crude oil and oil products for power. For decades, the US struggled to achieve energy independence from the Middle East, home to over half the world’s crude oil reserves. Over the past years, rising shale production and a drill-baby-drill and frack-baby-frack policy caused the US to take the leadership role in output, achieving its goal. The change in energy policy under the Biden administration has shifted crude oil’s pricing power back to OPEC and the cartel’s partner, Russia. As the Saudi oil minister said earlier this year, “Drill-baby-drill is gone forever.” A bull market since April 20, 2020 At the height of the global pandemic, energy demand evaporated. Nearby Brent crude oil futures fell to the lowest price of this century at $16 per barrel. NYMEX futures fell below zero as the landlocked crude oil ran out of storage as inventories exploded. As the monthly chart shows, at over the $62 level on August 20, 2021, crude oil futures remain over $100 per barrel higher than the April 20, 2020, negative $40.32 low. While the nearby futures have corrected by nearly $15 since the early July high, they remain in a bullish trend since the April 2020 low. The US administration and crude oil- Comedy or Tragedy? If the Biden administration should have learned anything from the current debacle in Afghanistan, timing is everything. The administration misjudged the Taliban’s ability to swoop across the country’s 34 provinces and capture its capital, Kabul, in short order. Transporting US citizens and Afghanis that assisted the US became a tragic chapter for the world’s wealthiest nation and leading military power. Two weeks ago, before crude oil corrected, the Biden administration appealed to OPEC+ to produce more oil as gasoline prices had risen to multi-year highs. Opposition party Republicans and environmentalists noted that the President casts himself as a climate warrior moving the US towards cleaner energy to protect the planet. The request for OPEC to increase output only makes sense if their production comes from sources away from the earth. After suffering under increasing shale production over the past years, OPEC+ does not have the US’s best interests at heart. The cartel is more likely to structure production policy to squeeze US consumers. After all, producing one barrel at $100 yields a better return than two at the $40 level. The Biden administration has been in office for the past seven months. Immigration, Afghanistan, and energy policies have been far from successes over the period. One sector of the market could benefit from the events transpiring in Afghanistan. With banks closed, one of the few ways people can leave with life savings is to protect them in computer wallets in the cloud. Cryptos allow for transport on flash drives or access in other areas of the world via a secure password. Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, posted gains over the past five consecutive weeks. The correction after the parabolic rally found a bottom. Flight capital is another reason supporting cryptos in a volatile world. Levels to watch in crude oil US energy policy remains bullish, despite the current correction in the crude oil futures market. OPEC and the Russians are not likely to cooperate with the Biden administration and heed the call for more output. They are more likely to cut production given the foreign policy tensions and signs of weakness in Afghanistan. The NYMEX crude oil’s weekly chart shows support levels at $61.56, $57.25, and $33.64 per barrel. As crude oil is heading towards the end of the driving season, delta variant cases are rising, and the US and Chinese economies are slowing, a deeper correction is possible. Meanwhile, with OPEC+ back in control of the marginal oil barrel, the medium and long-term prospects for the energy commodity remain bullish. I expect higher highs in crude oil in 2022 and beyond. US energy policy towards a greener path will change the oil market’s dynamics over the coming decades. Still, as petroleum continues to power the world in the medium term, the move to protecting the planet will lift oil’s price and fill OPEC+’s pockets over the coming years. I am short crude oil from a trend-following perspective, but US energy policy is likely to cause the fossil fuel to find a bottom at a higher level over the coming weeks. Follow those trends, they are your only friends. ----- Use the link below to sign up for free early access to articles. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Andy_Hecht
27
Gold in a Double Top Setup with a Target of 1720Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 15-Min Chart. The precious metal Gold is currently exhibiting a double top pattern setup, with the resistance area around the 1795 price level. The metal is currently testing 1780 support. If support holds, it may be temporary and the metal will find resistance around the downward trend line highlighted in red. If support breaks, it is expected that the trend reversal will continue, taking Gold towards 1720. Failure of this pattern would be observed if the precious metal breaks above 1800. Technical Indicators Currently Gold is trading below its short (25-MA), medium (75-MA) and long (200-MA) fractal moving averages. The key identifier in the change in trend is the break below the 200-MA. The RSI is also trading below 50 as the metal tests support. The longer timeframed KST is also in a negative zone, which is bearish for Gold. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go short at market. Stop loss will be set around the 1800 price level and a target of 1720. This produces a risk-reward ratio of 3.69. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in Gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Ceddy86
Broadening Pattern in Soybean Futures with a Target of 1440Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour Chart. Soybean Futures is experiencing a broadening pattern in the respective timeframe. This pattern comes with increased volatility as the trendlines are expanding outward. It is projected that the commodity will rally towards 1440, around the sighting of a gap lower. An indicative stop loss is set at around 1325, a little below the support trend line. Technical Indicators There has been a bullish crossover on the short (25-MA) and medium (75-MA) fractal moving averages. Soybean futures are also above the respective MAs. The RSI is above the 50 level with the KST having a positive Crossover. These are all bullish indicators for the commodity. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go long at market. Stop loss will be set around the 1325 price level and a target of 1440. This produces a risk-reward ratio of 2.46. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in Soybean futures.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Ceddy86
GOLD - TRIO RETEST!GOLD is overall bearish trading inside the orange channel so we will be looking for Trend-Following sell setups as it approaches the upper orange trendline. The highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the orange trendline, green resistance, and brown trendline retest. What I call "TRIO RETEST" As per my trading style: As GOLD approaches the purple circles, I will be looking for reversal sell setups on lower timeframes (like a double top pattern, trendline break, and so on...) Unless the bulls break above the green zone again, then we will be looking for buy setups on its retest. Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TheSignalyst
46
Detail Price Action Outlook on GOLD & SILVER Hello traders: Let's take a closer look into GOLD and SILVER. As we have seen some strong bearish moves from market opens this week, let's take a look at it from a technical, price action point of view. GOLD From my previous outlook on GOLD: Price indeed made a push down to the swing lows, which could be forming double bottoms. What we need to watch out for on the lower time frames to see if there's bullish reversal price action, followed by continuation correction for the buys. or If price manages to continue to drop lower than the previous swing lows, then expect the price to continue lower to the bottom of the HTF parallel channel structure, before a big reversal up move. SILVER Long Term Outlook on Silver: From my previous short term outlook on Silver: Similar developments like GOLD, we see price does push down to the previous swing lows as well. This is a good area to watch for price development as we could be forming a larger, deeper HTF continuation correction that may be at the bottom of potential reversal area. Alternatively, if price pushes down lower the previous swing lows, but moving in the corrective phase, then we can still expect the bullish reversal up move once correction completes. Any questions, comments or feedback please let me know. :) Thank you Jojo
OANDA:XAUUSD
by jojofang0901
41
Copper Rises to Resistance as Supply-Side Issues Heat UpCopper prices are seeing some upside movement as supply-side issues intensify. Codelco's Andina mine in Chile saw workers go on strike after mediation talks fell through. This adds to labor tensions in the major copper-exporting country, with workers at BHP Group's Escondida mine still negotiating a new contract as a possible walk-off looms. Meanwhile, workers at a JX Nippon Mining & Metals owned mine, also in Chile, went on strike this week. Prices are now at a descending trendline formed off the July swing high after rising off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Moreover, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) looks to be providing a degree of confluent resistance. Breaking above the trendline may open the door for an extension higher.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by Thomaswestw
August Could Be The Start Of A Bumpy Period In MarketsLast week, in an interview on CNBC, legendary trader and investor Stanley Druckenmiller sounded an alarm. He told reporters on the financial news network, “I can’t find any period in history where monetary and fiscal policy were this out of step with the economic circumstances, not one…I will be surprised if we’re not out of the stock market by the end of the year, just because these bubbles can’t last that long.” He went on to say there is a “raging mania in all assets.” Jackson Hole could send ripples across markets like in 2020 The market expects the beginning of tightening The delta variant provides another excuse What does “transitory” really mean? Fasten your seatbelts for a very rocky ride in markets- The dollar and bonds have become risk barometers than the VIX In 2021, cryptocurrencies rose in a parabolic move to record highs. Even though they corrected, prices remain far above last year’s levels. The explosive rallies reflect the decline in the faith in government and central bank control of the money supply. The tidal wave of central bank stimulus and tsunami of government stimulus has weighed on fiat currency’s purchasing power. The stock market has risen to all-time highs because, for many investors, TINA, there is no alternative to stocks. As Leon Cooperman, the ex-Goldman Sachs partner and hedge fund manager, once said, “Buying bonds amounts to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.” Commodity prices are trending higher in a bullish relay race that began at the March and April 2020 lows. Gold reached a record peak in August 2020. Grain and oilseed prices rose to eight-year highs earlier this year. In May, lumber, copper, and palladium reached record peaks. NYMEX crude oil futures recently rose to the highest level since 2014. Natural gas traded to highs above $4 for the first time since the peak winter season in late 2018. The last time natural gas was north of $4 per MMBtu was in 2014. Ethanol moved to its highest price since 2014, and coal to a level not seen since 2008. Last week, coffee futures traded at over the $2.15 level for the first time since 2014 before correcting. Commodities, stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other asset prices are trending higher. Residential real estate is not only a seller’s market, but prices have moved to insane levels in some regions. The bottom line is accommodative monetary and fiscal policies have planted turbocharged inflationary seeds, and markets have responded. Stanley Druckenmiller knows it is not a question of if significant volatility grips markets across all asset classes, but when it occurs. August 2021 could be a very bumpy period in markets as the traditionally volatile fall season is on the horizon. Jackson Hole could send ripples across markets like in 2020 The markets are anxiously awaiting word from the US central bank at its annual August gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Aside from fishing, hiking, and other outdoor activities, the Fed tends to use the offsite experience as an occasion to roll out monetary policy changes. Even though the 2020 summer meeting was virtual, the Fed took the opportunity to introduce a not-so-subtle change in inflation targets, shifting them from 2% to an average of 2%. After the highly inflationary CPI data over the past three months and a slew of other validations that the economic condition is far above the “target,” the Fed’s tone changed. At the recent meetings, the rhetoric became subtly more hawkish than dovish. However, this week, the central bank took a dovish step back as COVID-19’s delta variant is causing infections to rise. The variant could be a convenient reason for the Fed to maintain the accommodative status quo. The market expects the beginning of tightening Recent Fed minutes told markets the central bank debated whether they would begin tapering quantitative easing with mortgage-backed securities or government bonds. When the tapering starts, the Fed Funds rate hikes will eventually follow. The subtle change in the rhetoric increased market expectations that tighter credit is on the horizon. However, the market does not always get what it expects, and the Fed and US Treasury are notorious doves since 2008. The delta variant provides another excuse If the central bank digs deep into the excuse box, which sits next to the toolbox full of accommodative tools, it may come up with the rising number of COVID-19 delta variant cases as justification for the status quo. The powers in Washington DC will not mind as Democrats desperately want to hold onto and even expand the majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Liquidity and stimulus continue to prop up the economy, but the flood of the pair comes with a steep price tag. If the Fed decides to delay tapering QE or set a schedule to increase the Fed Funds rate from zero percent, it will only push off the inevitable. The bottom line is that artificially low interest rates and $120 billion each month in debt purchases are transitory policies to stabilize economic conditions. What does “transitory” really mean? The Fed’s mantra in 2021 is “transitory” when describing rising inflationary pressures. After the May CPI data, all the focus turned to lumber prices and skyrocketing home prices. In the wake of the June CPI, bottlenecks in the supply chain causing a semiconductor shortage and lack of supplies of new and used cars were thrust to the center of the excuse stage. Meanwhile, markets have been in an inflationary relay race to the top, with one asset passing the baton to the next. The stock market remains near record highs. Cryptocurrencies exploded, reaching incredible peaks in April and May, which is a direct challenge to the central bank and government control of the money supply. Commodity prices have been a merry-go-round of increasing prices. Real estate levels are out of this world. My wife and I bought a new home in late 2016. This week, smaller houses on our block were selling at over 100% above the price we paid. “Transitory” means temporary, and that a condition will pass. The Fed refused to define its measurement period for the “average 2% inflation rate,” calling it “discretionary.” Uncertainty is growing, and markets appear ready to respond. Fasten your seatbelts for a very rocky ride in markets- The dollar and bonds have become risk barometers than the VIX The price of any asset is always the correct price because it is the level where buyers and sellers meet in a transparent marketplace. The Fed may control short-term interest rates via the Fed Funds rate, but long-term interest rates reflect the market’s perception of credit. Ironically, the bond market has been taking on the Fed since August 2020. In a series of counter-intuitive moves, the US 30-Year Treasury bond futures fell from 183-06 in August 2020 to a low of 153-29 during the final week of March while the Fed purchased an average of $120 billion each month in debt securities. As inflation data began to make the Fed think about tightening over the past few months, the bonds have risen, reaching the most recent high at 167-04 in mid-July. The bond market has been moving contrary to the central bank’s signals with the futures near the highs at just below the 165 level as of July 30. Meanwhile, the dollar index reflects the US currency’s value against other world reserve foreign exchange instruments. Since the euro is the second-leading reserve currency, the dollar index has a 57.6% exposure to the European currency. The dollar index tends to move higher and lower with interest rate differentials. In the wake of last year’s pandemic, the rate gap between the dollar and the euro narrowed substantially. As the weekly chart illustrates, the dollar index fell from its highest level since 2002 at 103.96 in March 2020 to a low of 89.165 in early 2021, a drop of 14.2%, a substantial move for the US dollar. Since May, the index rallied, reaching the 93.195 level in July. The dollar index was at just over the 92 level on July 30. The index fell after the July FOMC meeting when the central bank appeared more dovish than the prior month. The high in March 2020 was a flight to quality during the worst period of asset liquidation caused by the pandemic. The decline came as US rates fell. The latest rally is on the back of the prospects for rising US rates compared to European rates and the potential for volatile markets over the coming weeks and months. The dollar and bond market are likely to reflect volatility better than the VIX index. The VIX reflects implied volatility of put and call options on S&P 500 stocks. Since market participants tend to panic during downside corrections, the VIX rallies when stocks fall. However, the stock market’s rise could be a symptom of inflationary pressures where all asset prices are rising, and that could continue given the tidal wave of central bank liquidity and tsunami of government stimulus. Even if the Fed bites the bullet and tightens credit, the process will be laborious. The central bank does nothing quickly unless it faces an unprecedented event, as we witnessed in 2008 with the financial crisis and 2020 on the back of the pandemic. Going from hawkish to dovish is a short-term affair while reversing course to a tighter approach to credit is done at a snail’s pace, in the interest of “market stability.” Meanwhile, with the 2022 midterm elections on the horizon and a green and progressive agenda in Washington DC, the spending will continue. Government stimulus in the trillions overwhelms any tweaks the Fed may make over the coming months. The price tag for inflationary policies is massive. The market is waiting for the Fed to unwrap its plans at the August Jackson Hole event. The FOMC got a lot more inflation than it bargained for when it boosted its target to an unknown and unmeasurable “discretionary” level last year. Fasten your seatbelts; markets are in for a wild ride over the coming weeks and months. The fall tends to be a volatile time in the stock market. Corrections in 1929, 1987, and 2008 came during the fourth quarter. Follow those trends as they are your only friend. The central bank and government policies may have been friendly for markets since the early 2020 lows but feeding the inflation beast with liquidity and stimulus is like giving bigger fixes to a junkie. According to Stan Druckenmiller, a rude awakening could be on the horizon. I can’t disagree, as all the seeds of financial insanity have begun to bloom. Either raging inflation or raging stagflation would roil the markets, and one of the two conditions seems unavoidable. We could look back at August 2021 as the beginning of an unprecedented and volatile period in markets. Fasten those seatbelts, hedge your bets and investments, and prepare for a head-spinning ride. It is far better to be safe and ready than unprepared and sorry when it comes to your assets. Get free early access to articles using the designated link below. Sign up for the Monday Night Strategy Call using the link provided below. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
CBOT:ZB1!
by Andy_Hecht
19
Corn Futures Expected to Move Lower Towards 563'4Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in Corn Futures ( ZC1!). Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour chart. ZC1! Hit some resistance around the 572’2 price level and is expected to move lower in the short term. This resistance is a lower high on the commodity and is expected to make another leg lower. Technical Indicators ZC1! is currently above its short (25-SMA), medium (75-SMA) and fractal moving averages. This price increase appears to be a counter trend move of an overall decline in the commodity. The RSI was overbought and is now trending lower towards the 50 level. Moreover, the KST is also displaying negative divergence as the indicator had a negative crossover. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go short at market. At the time of publishing ZC1! is trading around 563’4. The short- term target price is observed around the 548’6 price level, towards the medium term SMA. A stop loss is set at 572’2. This produces a risk reward ratio of 1.56.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Ceddy86
Natural Gas Heading Towards 3.20Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in Natural Gas. Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour chart. Natural Gas has been in a rangebound or rectangular trading pattern since the end of June and is currently making another move lower towards 3.50 support. The key move will be a breakdown from support which will take the commodity towards 3.20. Technical Indicators Natural Gas is currently below its short (25-SMA), medium (75-SMA) and fractal moving averages and its RSI is trading below 50, heading towards oversold levels. Moreover, the KST is in a bearish move . Recommendation The recommendation will be to go short at market. At the time of publishing Natural Gas is trading around 3.61. The medium-term target price is observed around the 3.2 price level. A stop loss is set at 3.85. This produces a risk reward ratio of 1.77.
NShort
by Ceddy86