Palladium Hits Strong Resistance! What Next?Since our last post, palladium has made good progress, moving up $90 to meet the resistance
from February 2020. Price is at an interesting point, because a clean break above and we
should see price move towards the all-time high at $3017.
The weekly 50 simple moving average has aided this gradual upwards move. The first break of
$2875 was short-lived as price came tumbling down and reentered consolidation in April/May.
Price is still in consolidation, and the longer it does so, the bigger the move we can expect
in the direction of the breakout.
So should we see a breakout to the upside, which is the bias as the prior trend was bullish,
we can expect a solid long-term uptrend to unfold.
This is why we want to position ourselves to take advantage of any breakouts that may occur.
It will require some patience while price sets itself up, but the reward will more than make
up for the time sitting on the sidelines.
We will continue to follow the journey of this commodity.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Commodity
ridethepig | Copper for the Yearly Close📌 Copper for the Yearly Close
First with an immediate review of the flows.
We were tracking for the capitulation low which was our moment to advance...
It was a great choice of moment to load the longs.
Extending the belief in commodity shortages which have been entering into play all year long. The highs are worth striving for, all factors remain the same with the macro picture still equal. The main cases where this will play an additional note too at China and Australia flows which is something to consider.
After clearing our first targets it's time to aim for the 4.5 main impulsive zone. A flyaway break is in play with such a bullish close, which is generally not very common. Of course the last time this happened was in the early 2000's; and we exploded.
As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Palladium Ready For A Breakout?Palladium looks set to make another attempt at breaking out of the 16 month period
of consolidation, which began in February 2020.
A break above the consolidation high at $2875 was made in April this year, but that
was short-lived as price returned back into the consolidation zone after being forced
down by the $300 round number psychological resistance level.
During the sideways market movement, price has still respected the 50 simple moving
average, which has acted as support, helping price create higher lows.
Last week we had a reversal just around the 50 simple moving average, which was shown
in a recent post, and this week price is gaining momentum and heading towards
resistance at $2875.
If this level is broken then we still have the $3000 round number and the all-time high
at $3017 in the way.
The long-term movement has been bullish prior to the consolidation period, so the bias
is for a break out to the upside.
Should we finally have a breakout, then we should see a linear trend unfold as this
commodity has trended really well in the past.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Nickel short tradeThanks for viewing,
I am not sure how widespread interest in Nickel is, my interest in Nickel is;
- It is a valuable metal that is in demand as the world turns towards electrification (Nickel currently has a low proportion of its demand ~3% from batteries and ~70% from steel-making but EVS. Vehicle manufacturers are turning towards much higher proportion of vehicles being EVS and battery manufacturers are turning to higher efficiency batteries with a higher proportion of nickel,
- There are therefore, strong fundamental reasons to expect strong long-term demand,
- It is possible to buy large volume physical metal and store it in secure locations (you can even take out a low interest loan on a %age of the market value of the metal collateral) like silverbullion.com.sg.
- I would like to add physical Nickel into my "all weather portfolio" (so that commodity positions comprise 7.5% of the portfolio - a la Ray Dalio) I am looking for an entry point to buy.
If you trade, I put my entry point on a break below the swing low for a 1:1 extension of the previous drop. If my view is correct this would allow wave (B) to complete without making a lower low (than was set in Feb 2016). This would set the scene for a new bull move towards all-time highs. That short trade (stop placed arbitrarily above nearby resistance) could net -27% closing out at $180.93. Actually, I may look into a platform that offers a short contract. If the Feb 2016 low is exceeded, my bullish scenario is off the table.
Reasons for a bearish view:
- MACD histogram strong down trend,
- MACD moving averages looking like crossing over to the downside,
- If a wave (B) unfolds to an expected 1:1 extension that will mean an 44% price decline,
- Lower buy volume for Iron ore over the past 18 months and signs of exhaustion in the Iron Ore rally - and as so much of nickel demand is from steel-making this would also drag down Nickel,
- Nagging suspicions about a generalised property bubble that is in the process of deflating in the west (commercial property down 20-30% in the US in 2020) if it gets underway (massive manipulation will be required to stop the implosion of a huge speculative bubble in residential and commercial property) in China - there could be a huge reduction in steel demand for construction.
At the moment I'm not trading, but looking to enter long around the $180 (below $8000/ton) mark. At the moment silverbullion.com.sg is offering just under 4% over spot and similar buy-sell spread. Storage fee are around 1.5% per year at current prices (more as a % basis for smaller 250kg / 550lb amounts). They have 2000kg bags of 99.8% pure Nickel at USD14,986/ton. I would be looking to enter below USD8000/ton and am hoping for a ~40% price drop overall before the next bull market. Of course, I could be wrong, or right but too early, or I may miss the buy-zone for some reason (like lack of funds) even if it unfolds exactly as I have charted it.
I am not an affiliate and the link posted isn't an affiliate link. It is just something I discovered in my search for gold and silver bullion non-bank vaults. If anyone knows of a better offering elsewhere - please let me know (I am also interested in low premium / spread bulk copper - not small ingots or coins).
Lately, I have been finding Elliot Wave principles very helpful in determining entry-points into commodity, gold and silver, and equity positions. When pessimism prevails people and organisations sell or get liquidated and the bottom normally isn't right at the point that fundamental factors switch from 'sell' to 'buy'. I find EW is helpful for setting entry and exit points - especially in lieu of more concrete information.
Protect those funds
Gold, Bullish Reversal ImminentGood afternoon ladies and gents,
What a week it has been. Lots of beautiful setups all week on many dollar based pairs. Whilst all of that has been going on, I've been sniping entries on Gold in preparation for the reversal that will take place soon. The Monthly & Weekly Orderflow on this pair is Bullish. Despite the sharp drop after FOMC last week, the bias remains intact and as a matter of fact, I have even more conviction in this trade.
Technically speaking, Gold should rally as it's extremely undervalued and dropped directly into my Buy Zone where I'm looking for a solid reversal structure on the H4. Although it's not fully formed yet, I have a feeling that when Gold moves, it will be aggressive and it will not be moving in any other direction other than up and until those targets above are yet.
Fundamentally speaking, Gold may rally as Inflation is as its all time highs (catalysed by the incredibly high QE rate that took place last year) and CoT reports do point towards this commodity being bullish.
Here I give you a potential entry point and stop loss that provides an RR of 1:5/1:6; however, my entries on the lower timeframe provide a superior risk to reward.
Let's see what happens.
Trade at your own risk & manage your risk effectively should you trade this idea.
Until later
- AmplaFX
New Crop Beans Probe Below the Teens - Did Lumber Give the Clue?Last week, the commodities sector experienced more than a speed bump after an extended period of price appreciation. As July soybeans roll to the next active month and the new crop November contract in the futures market, the price became a falling knife before recovering on Friday, June 18.
Beans tank
They were not the only commodities
A Fed hint made its transitory wish come true
Lumber continues to give clues as it moves first
The legacy of COVID-19 will live on- Bull market dips can be brutal
July beans have been in the teens for most of 2021. New crop November beans rose into the teens in April and remained there until mid-June when they briefly fell below $13 per bushel.
While the weather across the critical growing regions is the primary factor driving the price of the oilseed futures, all commodity prices fell last week. Ironically, lumber has been signaling a correction was on the horizon since mid-May. The illiquid lumber market has a habit of leading commodity prices, making it a crucial sentiment benchmark. I never trade lumber because of its limited liquidity, but I watch the price action like a hawk.
Beans tank
Nearby CBOT soybean futures reached a high of $16.6750 in May 2021.
The chart shows the rise to the highest price since September 2012 when soybean futures reached a record $17.8900 peak. Chinese demand, the weather conditions and COVID-19 in South America, and falling global inventories pushed the price to the high last month. Nearby soybean prices have been mainly in the teens throughout 2021, only dipping to a low of $12.98 in January.
The recent selling took the price down to a low of $13.2350 per bushel last week before it covered to around the $14 level. New-crop November soybeans have been trading in backwardation to the nearby July contract. Backwardation is a condition where nearby prices are higher than deferred prices. Backwardation is a sign of tight supplies or a market deficit.
The market has remained optimistic that the 2021 crop year will produce enough oilseeds to meet the growing global demand.
The chart of soybeans for delivery in July 2021 minus November 2021 shows the backwardation narrowed from a high of $2.29 per bushel in January to the 82.25 cents level at the end of last week. However, at 82.25 cents, the July beans continue to command a hefty premium to the new crop November beans.
The chart shows that the November futures contract entered the teens, with the price rising above $13 per bushel in late April and remained there until last week when it probed under the level. However, the November contract recovered, and new crop beans were still in the teens as of June 18. At $13.15, soybeans for November delivery corrected by over 11% from the June 7 high at $14.80 per bushel.
They were not the only commodities
Soybeans were not the only commodities to experience selling over the past weeks. Corn and wheat prices decline. Copper, a leading metal, fell from a record high at nearly $4.90 per pound in May to settle below $4.16 last week, a 15% decline. Palladium reached an all-time high of $3019 per ounce in May and was trading around the $2470 level on June 18, over 18% lower. Metals, industrial, and agricultural commodities fell sharply last week.
The only markets that remained near the recent highs were crude oil and natural gas. The strength in the energy sector is likely a function of the shift in US energy policy, causing tighter regulations on drilling and fracking at a time when demand is booming in the wake of the global pandemic.
A Fed hint made its transitory wish come true
The selloff in commodities began before the June 10 Fed meeting but selling accelerated in its aftermath. The Fed did not change monetary policy. The only concrete change was a slight five basis point increase in the reverse repo rate. However, the central bank shifted its rhetoric from “not thinking about thinking about” rate hikes or tapering QE. The FOMC members decided it was an excellent time to begin thinking. The May CPI data that shows inflation rising by 5% and the 3.8% rise in core inflation, excluding food and energy, was enough for the central bank to hint that rates could head higher and QE could begin to taper in 2022. The prospects of a less accommodative Fed caused a cascade of selling in markets across all asset classes.
On Friday, June 18, hawkish comments by Fed Governor James Bullard caused selling in the stock market. While the Fed continues to characterize rising inflationary pressures as “transitory,” the more hawkish comments and forecasts may have made its characterization comes true, at least in the short term. The correction in commodity prices will likely cause a decline in inflation data over the coming months if prices continue to fall or sit around the current levels.
Lumber continues to give clues as it moves first
The illiquid lumber futures market provides the commodity market with clues over the past months on the up and the downside. Before 2018, the lumber price never traded above $493.50 per 1,000 board feet, the 1993 high.
The annual chart dating back to 1972 shows the explosive move in lumber that took the price to a high of $659 in 2018, $1000 in 2020, and $1711.20 in 2021.
The weekly chart shows lumber futures rose above the 2020 high in mid-February 2021, months before other commodity prices reached record or even multi-year highs. Lumber peaked at $1711.20 during the week of May 10 and became a falling knife. The turn came before other commodity prices corrected dramatically in June.
Lumber may be an illiquid market that does not offer trading or investment opportunities, but it has been an impressive barometer for the future path of least resistance for raw material prices. I never trade lumber, but I watch the price action in the wood market like a hawk.
Last week, nearby lumber futures fell to a low of $855.10 per 1,000 board feet and settled below the $900 level on June 18. Lumber has nearly halved in price from the early May high, just six short weeks ago. Put lumber on your radar as a critical indicator of commodity market sentiment. Over the past year, lumber rallies have been a harbinger of bullish trends in the raw materials asset class. Falling lumber prices have signaled that corrections are on the horizon.
The legacy of COVID-19 will live on- Bull market dips can be brutal
Meanwhile, the correction in commodities was brutal last week, but the asset class remains in a bullish trend since the March and April 2020 lows. Even the most aggressive bull markets rarely move in straight lines. The higher prices move, the odds of brutal corrective periods rise. The cure for high prices in commodities is those high prices as producers increase output, and demand tends to decline when raw materials become too expensive for consumers.
We are still in the early days of the post-pandemic era. The tidal wave of central bank liquidity and tsunami of government stimulus continue to overwhelm the financial system. The CPI data told us that inflation is a clear and present danger. Whether it is “transitory” is a question that remains. Real estate prices are soaring; the stock market remains near its all-time high. Digital currency prices suffered severe corrections, but they remain far higher than 2020 levels. The US dollar may be bouncing against other world currencies, but that could be a mirage. Measuring the dollar’s value against other foreign exchange instruments provides an incomplete picture. If all fiat currencies are losing purchasing power, the dollar may only be the healthiest horse in the foreign exchange glue factory.
Inflationary pressures will not go away overnight. Even if the Fed begins increasing the short-term Fed Funds rate and tapers QE, the liquidity in the financial system remains at unprecedented levels. Government spending is not likely to decline under the current administration in Washington, DC.
The impact of liquidity and stimulus in 2008 drove commodity prices higher until 2011-2012. The levels in 2020 and 2021 are far higher than in 2008. As I recently wrote, Albert Einstein defined insanity as doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different result. Professor Einstein would likely be a buyer of commodities on the current price dip as we are still in the early days of the bullish cycle if the period from 2008-2012 is a model.
As vaccines create herd immunity to COVID-19, the virus will continue to fade into the market’s rearview mirror. However, the legacy will live on for years. I will be watching lumber for clues. When the wood price hits bottom and turns, it could provide another hint that commodity prices will reach higher lows sooner rather than later.
When it comes to the soybean and other agricultural markets, rising inflation is bullish, but Mother Nature will dictate the path of least resistance for prices. The 2021 crop will be a function of the weather conditions across the fertile plains in the US and other growing regions in the northern hemisphere over the coming weeks. Commodities remain in bull markets, despite the recent selloff on the back of the Fed’s rhetoric. Any significant shift in monetary policy remains months away. A rising dollar and higher interest rates could cause lots of turmoil in markets across all asset classes, but the damage from the liquidity and stimulus that stabilized the economy and financial system will last for years to come. I remain a commodity bull, despite the recent selloffs and view them as buying opportunities.
Picking bottoms in markets is a fool’s game, so we trade with the trends. However, the odds and fundamentals favor higher lows in the inflation-sensitive asset class.
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Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
GOLD, correction time and next destinationAfter FOMC news release yesterday, a massive bearish candle pierced through 1844 level of support, which was previously a level of resistance. Now, it needs some correction and rest. The price is located near an important structural level at the moment. Therefore, we are getting ready to open some long positions and aim for the previously broken area of support, before we can see some further decline in the price.
What do you think, family? Feel free to drop your ideas in the comment section below!
USOIL NEXT RESISTANCE IS 80.00US OIL TRYING TO DO BIG ACHIEVEMENTS, REVISITING POST 2008 CRASH LEVELS OF 80.00, I EXPECT OIL TO BREAK THE RESISTANCE AND FLIP IT INTO SUPPORT SO I'M OPENING A LONG POSITION TARGETING 109.00 IN THE UPCOMING YEAR.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, THIS IS ONLY MY IDEA. TRADE RESPONSIBLY.
USDWTI Pullback?Here we're seeing a weak momentum on Crude oil. We may see a pullback to levels marked on the chart for a move higher.
*If you enjoy these analyses, be sure to follow so you can get chart updates if any changes occur as new market data (price action) comes in.*
Happy Trading folks!
Cheers!
NASDAQ Fib Levels and more symbols regardlessLet's talk about US Markets first. Dow Jones (daily Buy) is moving in the direction 34574.2 gaining %0.13. NASDAQ (Buy) is 13747.51 points, following its trendline falling % -0.01. Also on the chart, important Fib lines are drawn. S&P 500 (signalling Buy) is 4203.47 high, falling % -0.02.
Silver troy ounce (31.10 gram) 28.125 USD (percentage of 0.4, Buy signaling) and Platinum , 1199.2 USD (1.42 of pct, Neutral) are finding buyers/sellers presently. Ounce palladium 2866.5 USD (%1.5) costs for traders.
Copper 1 pound (0.4535 kg), 4.654 USD (with the percentage of -0.5, Buy) is being traded at the time written. Besides this, XAUUSD, 1902.7 USD (%-0.14, Buy) going along its trendline.
American Dollar index (DXY) 89.886 is pushing itself (%0.06 Buy) on the line again. USDTRY is signalling Neutral along with the price of 8.5105 TRY (%0.0312 ) and Euro TL (signalling Neutral) is currently being traded with 10.40538 TRY (pct 0.02327).
Exchange Istanbul (BIST100) (signalling Neutral) is moving with 1432.04, gaining %0.81. Asian stock markets may tell us more. Shanghai Composite (SSEC) (Buy) is 3624.7137, gaining %0.26. NIKKEI (Buy) is followed by 28814.12, falling % -0.16.
German DAX is at the high of 15567.36, gaining %0.95 (Strong Buy). UK100 index 7080.47 is gaining %0.82 (providing Buy signals).
Gold’s weekly outlook: May 31 – June 04Gold made a 4th consecutive green candle closing above $1900 (weekly close) after a long gap of 27 weeks as the dollar remained weak. The move in the gold was more of a technical push than anything else but the inflation fears and the ongoing pandemic led disturbed fundamentals also helped in the rise. As countries continue to lighten restrictions on back of full vaccinations, it still remains oddly unclear whether the newer variants are skillful enough to bypass the inoculations easily which might pose a larger threat to the exposed population. If one event softens a bit another is ready to take up the lead to keep the uncertainty heightened as now the Wuhan China angle has resurfaced over the origin of the virus which could again mount geopolitical tensions between U.S and China. Thus the world continues to remain in the clutches of uncertainty which makes the yellow metal an easy sought after given its safe haven characteristics. To watch next week – Fed speakers, inflation data, OPEC meet and other important economic data.
On the chart –
Gold finally closed above $1900 for the week after a lengthy wait as the technicals continued to push the price higher. The price has hit a minor resistance area though a small gap up might be enough to overcome it as the major resistance lies still ahead. In a probability, gold might try an inverse head and shoulders pattern if the price fails to take out the resistance at $1960-70 which again if happens is another towering bullish sign. We have 2 scenarios –
1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1921. If this is crossed it can move towards $1945. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1963.
2. Bears remain out of the picture given the trend except scalp trades.
Bullish view – Bulls reclaimed $1900 on closing basis after a gap of 27 weeks on back of a muted dollar. The move was aided by supportive fundamentals arising from fresh geopolitical tensions and continued uncertainty due to the ongoing pandemic which is failing to fade. For bulls it can be seen as a huge victory as $1900 was a big psychological level which was difficult to cross in the recent past, now that it has been taken out on weekly timeframe the confidence of bulls should be at a new high and surging forward might not be that difficult. Only cause of worry is the upcoming resistance area which if taken out can propel the metal higher at a faster pace.
Bearishness still fails to entice.
On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher.
Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1906 for the targets of $1921 and $1945 with a stop loss placed below $1897. Longer term target $1963.
Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets.
Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
Gold’s weekly outlook: May 24-28Gold had another big green week as inflation fears returned back forcing riskier asset classes to reverse some gains. The situation though remains mostly same with virus still rampant in many countries while few others are reopening after vaccinating the population, the element of fear hasn’t faded with the new mutants spreading at a heightened pace which might force countries to rethink over opening too soon. Though the cheer is quite obvious post the long time spent in curbs it might be short lived given what has happened with some other countries after they were fully opened post the end of first wave. The outlook for the economies remain pretty grim as if a part of globe is on the improvement the part is succumbing which is not at all helping the overall recovery and this scenario might stay for some more months which only signifies a sustained bull run for the yellow metal as it remains the safest haven. To watch next week – Fed speakers, earnings and other important economic data.
On the chart –
Gold moved higher with a $58 green candle clearly breaking out of the flag even on a conservative approach doubly confirming the much awaited large flag breakout. The metal now has a defined trajectory which should lead it to new highs given the intensity of the breakout. We have 2 scenarios –
1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1886. If this is crossed it can move towards $1901. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1921.
2. Bearish bets remain void post the large bullish breakout except scalp trades.
Bullish view – Bulls climbed higher post breaking out of the flag as inflation fears aided their run along with the grim situation across the globe due to the pandemic which is still unwilling to rest. For bulls the breakout itself is an exuberance but what lies ahead would be even more cheerful as the breakout is huge and it should result in new highs given the technicals and the fundamental factors aiding the yellow metal.
Bearishness continues to remain off the grid as the trend remains bullish.
On larger terms, gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher.
Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1891 for the targets of $1901 and $1921 with a stop loss placed below $1882. Longer term target $1945.
Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets.
Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
Is it a good time to sell some SugarThe buying spree at 17/05 NY open didn't make the market move very much. Instead, it creates volatility in the Sugar market. Therefore, I believe the Bulls are just not there to defend the market and a breakout should occur soon.
Trailing Stops should be used when the price hits 16.62.
XAUUSD SHORT TO 1570XAUUSD short to 1570 long term as a major correction is needed after a multi year bull run. Also, on its recent bull run, Gold has move up really impulsively without retesting a lot of major zones, in the process creating a lot of imbalance which now needs to be filled. Inefficiency is a sign of weakness in any trend.
From a fundamental perspective, the US10 year Yields rising back to previous highs of 2020, will put pressure on Gold to drop as both assets correlate negatively. Also, with the roll out of vaccines and economies worldwide slowly reopening, the demand for Gold will drop. Waiting on the next big false flag attack by the worlds elite & shadow government, so that I have a reason to start buying Gold again long term!
GOLD Buy or Sell ? Price Action Is Key.
Hello traders:
Lately many have been asking about where GOLD might be going, and the question is always whether to bur or sell now.
From my point of view, there is no need to rush to jump into the position right away.
Let the price comes to you when its ready and execute is going to be more consistent and sustainable.
So lets take a look at the overall price action.
We know the price is in a higher time frame correction, flag/channel structure that has been correcting since August 2020.
The latest price shows us at the top of this HTF correction, and depending on how you would identify structure, looks like price is breaking out now.
As always I talk about don't jump into the trades just because price breaks some trendline, S/R line or other indicators.
Wait for confirmation with a clear breakout, and a lower time frame continuation correction is best.
This would be the first option to look for if it develops into such.
Where as the second option would be to see if price will fail to break higher,
instead have a reversal impulse on the LTF, pushed the price down out of this current ascending channel correction,
then look for bearish continuation down.
Very similar like the previous ascending channel that the price formed.
Overall from a higher time frame perspective and long term outlook, I still would like to see this HTF flag/channel finish correction and leads to the upside.
But we also need to acknowledge the price may or may not be ready now for the upside move,
and we need to adjust and have plan to manage if it doesn't.
As I always say, let the price come to you. Plan your trade, trade your plan.
This is how we can be more consistent, sustainable in trading for long term.
Thank you
Gold’s weekly outlook: May 17-21Gold closed in the green as the technicals continued to propel the price along with a lower dollar. The price was dominated by the inflation fears in the start of the week but it eased away as the economic data suggested a robust recovery which was the reason behind the dip in the dollar and the bonds. The ongoing pandemic continues to ravage the economy as it has forced many countries to shutdown again to battle its deadly second wave which is claiming more lives nearly every day but the economic data speaks completely opposite which is just adding to the uncertainty. Some countries are reopening after vaccinating its population but with the new mutant jumping borders it might create undesired situations again which only adds up to the bullish scenario for the yellow metal. It may look only pessimistic around but the reality is such with uncertainty just going one way up as if not the pandemic the other geopolitical reasons continue to haunt the world without taking a breather which bodes well for the gold as it remains the safest haven. To watch next week – Fed Minutes and other important economic data.
On the chart –
Gold had a mild green bar but a positive one post an important candle which was showcasing the awaited breakout, the bar created is still a tricky one as it cannot be taken as a foolproof to ascertain the accuracy of the breakout but the bounce from the lows does suggest otherwise as in the retest of the flag/consolidation which confirms the breakout. Given the flag/consolidation is finally broken with a confirmation it makes the path of gold very clear. We have 2 scenarios –
1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1857. If this is crossed it can move towards $1875. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1886.
2. Bears remain ousted post the bullish breakout except scalp trades.
Bullish view – Bulls tried to advance higher post the likely flag/consolidation breakout but were grounded briefly as inflation fears overtook though they still managed to end the week with minor gains making a new closing high. The situation only worsened with geopolitical tensions reemerging along with increased fears due to fast spreading of a new variant of the coronavirus which might be able to dodge the vaccine as well. The fundamentals stay deeply in favor of higher prices while technicals have turned ultra bullish post the likely breakout.
Bearishness continues to remain off the table post another bullish breakout.
On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher.
Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1846 for the targets of $1857 and $1875 with a stop loss placed below $1837. Longer term target $1886.
Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets.
Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.