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Gold Likely to Retrace From 1850.00Gold is clearly starting to develop a new bullish trend; however, this does not preclude the possibility for the emergence of interim corrections along the way. The price action is currently drawing near to the descending trend line (in purple) and the 200-day MA (in orange). Given the significance of the two as major turning points, the price of gold seems very likely to rebound from 1850.00, thereby initiating a minor correction. This is further supported by the fact that gold managed to break out above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement only today, and the breakout is not yet certain. A potential dropdown could fall as low as the 23.6% Fibonacci (around 1770.00) before the commodity finds the necessary support. The long term target for the newly emerging uptrend remains the same - the 61.8% Fibonacci at 1917.50
TVC:GOLDShort
by Trendsharks
Gold’s weekly outlook: May 10-14Gold created a large green bar after days of consolidation as the dollar resumed its downtrend. The rise in the price was quite sharp once $1800 was taken out and this was more of a technical burst than fundamentally as the situation across the globe continues to remain grim with new virus strain causing a fresh stir of panic as it has started spreading. The pandemic has heavily impacted the economic growth and it could remain a constant irritant for maybe another year or more as most parts of the world have only faced the second wave and historically such events do not end without a third wave. With economic growth/revival still under a dark cloud it remains quite obvious that the yellow metal should continue to shine given its safe haven characteristics. To watch next week – Fed Speakers, earnings and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold finally broke above the psychological level of $1800 with a large weekly green candle which to some extent is showing the start of the long awaited uptrend as it has likely broken the flag/consolidation though it remains to be reconfirmed to fully judge the technical shift. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1839. If this is crossed it can move towards $1857. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1875. 2. Bears likely have lost their last hope due to a possible bullish breakout except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls stormed above $1800 as the dollar resumed its retreat along with a deepening pandemic as the fresh mutant scare further stretches the uncertainty. The bulls not only exploded above $1800 but likely broke the ongoing flag/consolidation which should push yellow metal into another league with a new all time high eyed. If the breakout is confirmed then gold will possess unmatched technical prowess as fundamentals continue to remain highly favorable. Bearishness continues to remain out of context. On larger terms, gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1840 for the targets of $1857 and $1875 with a stop loss placed below $1833. Longer term target $1886. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
GOLD - Purple War Zones!GOLD is overall bullish trading inside the red channel so we will be looking for Trend-Following Buy setups as (if) it approaches our lower red trendline. Knowing that GOLD can still trade higher from here, to test the upper red trendline. Here are the two strong zones where I will be looking for high probability setups: I call them War Zones, (highlighted in Purple circles) Zone 1: (1790-1800) This highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the round number 1800 and lower red trendline. (trend-following setup) Zone 2: (1850-1860) This highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the orange trendline and upper red trendline. (over-bought / over-extended area) As per my trading style: As GOLD approaches one of the purple circles, I will be looking for reversal buy/sell setups (like a double bottom /top pattern, trendline break, and so on...) Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheSignalyst
38
Gold is about to go high again !After breaking a resistance area, that area became a support for the chart and after that the chart got stuck into a rectangle form range market. Today it has broken the top of that rectangle and it is probable that it will go high as the width of the rectangle.The best are for long position is on the the top of the rectangle with regarding that an ascending trend line will support our chart to continue its uptrend.But remember that Gold is extremely volatile and news and other fundamental factors can be really effective on Gold's trends. So make sure that you use Stop losses for your trades.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by khanzadiashkan7
Gold’s weekly outlook: May 03-07Gold remained in consolidation post a stellar run from the lows as a higher dollar limited the gains though this might be just a temporary co relation as seen in the previous weeks. The move in the week was broadly on the Fed’s policy as it remains confident about the near term inflation rise being unrealistic provided enough impetus to the riskier assets which in turn paused the upmove in gold. Coming to the ongoing uncertainty, the pandemic remains an undefeated mighty villain which has and is still wrecking the global economy as new mutants are able to bypass the current vaccines creating another round of heightened anxiety as the situation demands prolonged restrictions and lockdowns. With most countries remaining in grip of the second wave it seems pretty simple to advocate higher gold prices as it remains the safest haven. To watch next week – Earnings, Fed speakers, BoE meet and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold had another indecisive week ending up with minor losses broadly on back of a higher dollar as the other ongoing events continue to provide a sizable positiveness to the price. The pattern breakouts remain intact as the price movement is confined in a range with the major breakout – the weekly flag/consolidation still awaiting to happen which could be on course given push by the smaller ones(breakouts) happened earlier. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1771. If this is crossed it can move towards $1789. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1804. 2. Bears remain isolated as the trend is largely bullish except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls again tried to burst higher but failed to even cross previous week’s high as a higher dollar along with a renewed interest in riskier assets held back the yellow metal. The chart is pretty bullish as the pattern breakouts remain respected along with stupendous fundamental support as the world continues to fight against the pandemic which has stalled the economic recovery due to persistent restrictions and fresh lockdowns to curb the rampant virus but has only heightened uncertainty given the inability of the vaccines against new mutants. In such a scenario its highly expected that the ongoing flag/consolidation would break on the upside quite soon. Bearishness still remains off the grid. On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1772 for the targets of $1789 and $1804 with a stop loss placed below $1763. Longer term target $1823. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
2
Uranium stock bullish outlook + 400 %The following report will discuss the potential outlook for the uranium market and its stocks (especially Cameco) on which basis superior stocks are picked under the premise to increase the portfolios risk and return potential by applying geographical risk spreading mechanics and return optimizing technical analysis strategies. 1. Macro Outlook It is well known that nuclear energy is a cheap and environmentally friendly energy sources which can be used for the base line electricity generation. Furthermore, many countries are currently working on the so called SMRs (small modular reactors) which will allow a much more flexible and broader application of nuclear energy. Generally speaking, an increasing need for alternative energy sources due to the worldwide decarbonization agenda would lead to a much stronger bias towards non fossil fuels. However, in the past, events like the Fukushima (2011) melt down or Chernobyl have put a dark shadow over nuclear energy due to its dangerous fallout potential. As more and more countries are committing to a low or net zero carbon goal, demand for “clean” sources will significantly increase. Based on the energy outlook published yearly by BP (www.bp.com) the main energy gap will be filled with renewables, while a considerable amount will also consist of nuclear energy. Based on this outlook its evident that early investments in renewable energy or key resources in that field (Lithium, Cobalt, Rare earths, Nickel, Copper) are a good decision. Unfortunately, most of these sectors are already hovering around or way past their all-time highs which reduces the risk reward potential. This is mainly because the potential growth is already discounted in today’s prices and many investors have those investments on their radar already for a while. This is where nuclear energy comes into play, based on the this analysis an early investment in uranium stocks is still a good choice even though they performed pretty well in the 6 months (100-200%, however most assets did..). The more important point here is that those prices are still comparably cheap to their all-time highs which makes them pretty interesting from a risk reward perspective. As renewable energies stocks are already at their highs, uranium stocks seem to just have started to move upwards after a long bear and stagnation period. Currently there is a debate that the uranium prices are usually tied to long term contracts and a spot market is almost nonexistent. Based on that a significant increase in earnings for uranium mines is due when those contracts run out and new contracts have to be repriced under spot terms with higher prices. Some bullish analysts claim that this will happen within the next 2 years. The only question remaining is how quickly will the increase of nuclear energy in the global energy mix move forward (some countries are still reducing their exposure like Germany) and will the supply in uranium favorably not be able to catch up with that pace? Based on some research, currently there are 53 additional NPPs (Nuclear Power Plant) under construction, 8 of them in the EU. According to the IAEO over 100 NPPs are planned and further 300 are in their feasibility study phase. Especially China and India seem to contribute majorly, where China has planned to expand its Nuclear Energy usage from 4% to 20% until 2030. These big players should certainly outweigh any facility closures in EU. 2. Uranium deposits & potential stock candidates Referring to below internet sources, major uranium deposits can be found in Australia, Kazakhstan, Canada and Russia (descending order) which gives potential to decrease the idiosyncratic risk through diversification by investing in different companies and countries. When using the market cap and field of business as the main filtering criteria, below table will give a good summary of potential candidates: Kazatomprom - Kazakhstan Cameco - Canada NexGen Energy - Canada Paladin Energy - Australia Energy Fuels - Canada Altius Minerals - Canada Uranium Participation - Canada Uranium Energy - Canada Centrus Energy - Canada 3. Technical analysis (Cameco) The long-term perspective (left Chart) beautifully shows the extent to which we are still at the beginning of a potential major uranium super bull cycle. In contrast to that, the short-term perspective shows that the current bull trend came to an end as 50MA which was perfectly supporting the price got violated. However, this no shows to just have been a short breather or interim consolidation where traders are taking some profits which were able to increase their stakes by approx. 50% since December. Until the ATH there would be room for an increase of up to 4 times of the current share price. 4. Possible Technical Trading Strategy Since there are some strong fundamentals pointing upwards it might be a good idea to apply a long only algorithm strategy based on moving averages. Nowadays every long strategy is not a bad idea as increasing M2 levels are inflating all assets. In General, the application of the moving average in combination with a fundamental trend perspective allows good market timing in combination with risk management. As the outlook in general is bullish one should always buy whenever a trend is being established by the actual price, crossing from below the MA above. ON the other side one should sell wehnever the MA is crossed from above the MA towards down.Here you can find an example of such a strategy applied for Cameco starting from November 2020 until now. From today’s perspective one could ask how to enter the market. For me personoally now its a very good time to buy Cameco as prices freshly crossed up again the MA which would lead to a fresh buy order. It seems like prices just took a small breather while bouncing back from the blue supporting line and constinuing the bullish path with the MA50. It’s very important not to trade against the fundamental direction therefore its recommended not to short the stocks even though it might appear that there lies some potential profit as well. 5. The other uranium stocks As a sumary for all uranium stocks one could say that the current up movement approximately started at the same time for all uranium stocks (approx. December 2020). As it could be anticipated smaller companies have performed better during the bull run, probably due to the higher risk factor and extended internal leverage structures. Currently the prices seem to consolidate or even reverse in their trend direction. Finally, a good investment mix would be a combination of different geographic locations. Thus, combining Kazatoprom with NexGenEnergy and Cameco should be a good choice. It would include the big names while also being quite diversified. (Kazakhstan, Canada). Further diversification could be achieved by finding a suitable uranium stock located in Australia. 6. ETF Finally, if less technical and more long-term investing is the favored approach it’s a good idea to invest into a Uranium ETF which would spread the risk at low cost due to a very diversified portfolio within the uranium segment held by the Fund. It should rather be seen as an invest into the industry than into a specific stock. The Fund usually charge some management fees which are however very low (up to 1%). One such example would be GLOBAL X URANIUM ETF. In case this sparks your interest please do not hesitate to reach out as it would be necessary to prepare a separate analysis where the fact sheets of those competing ETFs need to be compared. GUYS THIS WAS MY FIRST PUBLIC ANALYSIS PLS LET ME KNOW WHAT YOU THINK!!
NYSE:CCJ
by RobbybubbleX
1
Gold’s weekly outlook: April 26-30Gold had a week of consolidation post the rally of $120 from the lows as the price awaits further cues from the upcoming Fed meeting in the week. Also, crossing $1800 (psychological level) in one go in itself is a tough ask unless its fueled by an impactful fundamental event/news. Riskier assets on the whole were in a consolidation given the continuous flow of positive and negative news which kept it directionless and mainly the Fed meet is eyed for further movement as it should offer more insights on the inflationary perspective which yet remains a cause of worry as the pandemic continues to sweep the globe with new mutants posing a significant danger since the current vaccines are not much effective against them. The actual state of the world economy still is a mystery as the data and the ground reality continues to remain poles apart which only adds to uncertainty and this definitely is a positive for the yellow metal. To watch next week – Earnings, Fed meet and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold had a subdued week cradled between the support and the resistance as it awaits the important event of Fed’s interest rate decision for further direction though the trend remains largely bullish with breakouts getting respected and the move towards the top of the flag/channel on course. $1800 looks like the immediate hurdle and once its crossed then the move forward could gain even more momentum. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1789. If this is crossed it can move towards $1804. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1823. 2. Bears continue to find themselves outcast-ed given the current bullishness except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls made a run towards $1800 but failed to even touch it as it remains a whole figure resistance which does not get conquered in one go generally. Still, the move back from the week’s low suggests the buying is coming at every dip which is absolutely in line given the bullish technicals along with highly supportive fundamentals as in the heightened uncertainty caused by the ongoing pandemic and its negative impact on the economic recovery and stability. The stage remains set for the bulls to reach the top of the flag/channel and ultimately break it on the upside which if happens would lead to fresh all time highs. Bearishness still remains off the table. On larger terms, gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1784 for the targets of $1789 and $1804 with a stop loss placed below $1775. Longer term target $1823. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
Elliott Wave Analysis: Natural Gas Looks Clearly BearishHello traders and investors! Today we will talk about Natural gas, its price action from technical point of view and wave structure from Elliott Wave perspective. We have been bearish on Natgas all the time and seems like the downtrend is not finished yet. After a big, higher degree a-b-c corrective movement at the end of 2020, ideally for wave B, Natgas turned down in an impulsive fashion, probably as part of the first leg (i) of a new five-wave cycle within wave C that can push the price back to 2020 lows. Well, after we noticed a nice bearish setup formation with waves (i) and (ii), seems like Natural gas is on the way down within wave "iii" and after recent break below strong daily channel support line, it's actually confirming the bearish trend. Currently we can see another three-wave intraday corrective pullback, ideally in subwave (ii), where support line of a corrective channel may now act as a strong resistance. All that being said, be aware of a bearish continuation in 2021, ideally and probably as part of a new five-wave cycle within wave C of a higher degree wave (V) that can send it back to 2020 lows to complete a bigger weekly ending diagonal pattern. All the best and have a great weekend! If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by ew-forecast
Gold’s weekly outlook: April 19-23Gold finally had a good move on the upside with gains more than $30 for the week as technicals continue to bloom along with a falling dollar and increased uncertainty due to the ongoing pandemic which is ceaselessly throwing up fresh challenges. The coronavirus mutations are simply messing up the vaccination drives as they seem to dodge through generating paramount fears of a prolonged economic disruption as most likely way to keep the virus from spreading currently boils down to lockdown(s) since people are still failing to understand the gravity of the situation though it might be pretty harsh to blame them only as rising inflation requires even more deeper pockets. On inflationary front, the bonds which had spiked up have come back lower as predicted by the central bodies though it still remains a cause of worry given the rising cost of goods. As global situation continues to remain gloomy it paints a perfect picture for the yellow metal to shine. To watch next week – Earnings, ECB meet and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold made a comforting green bar post retesting the breakout which suggests further continuity of the trend towards the flag/channel top which could be finally broken this time as the global outlook remains grim due to the surge in covid cases worldwide. We have have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1789. If this is crossed it can move towards $1804. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1823. 2. Short bets continue to remain offbeat under such heavy bullishness except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls continue to ride higher as they created another high higher and closed above the resistance of the consolidation pattern which was broken in the week as fundamentals continue to worsen with covid cases surging along with increased death rates as the coronavirus continues to dodge containment through new mutations which are far more deadly and fast spreading. Technical push is probably at its highest in recent weeks with bullish pattern breakouts suggesting the yellow metal should test the flag/channel top and eventually break it on the upside which will make the metal bullish as never before with new high on the cards. Bearishness continues to remain out of context. On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1782 for the targets of $1789 and $1804 with a stop loss placed below $1772. Longer term target $1823. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
Gold’s weekly outlook: April 12-16Gold had another successful green week where it created a fresh higher high as the falling dollar lent its support apart from the blooming bullish technicals. The week saw the Fed chair reaffirming a strong growth forecast along with allaying fears of rising inflation with terming any increase to be temporary which funneled a rally across asset classes except the dollar which had a negative outing. With technical support only getting stronger, the fundamentals seem to match it as situation across globe gets gloomier with every passing day as the pandemic continues to wreck havoc with the 2nd wave claiming more lives than the first. Economic setbacks loom large with many countries in a state which demands a lockdown to curb the spread and mainly reduce the pressure on the overwhelmed medical facilities as many people are not adhering to any measures which is only worsening the situation. This again is the chapter where the uncertainty continues the climb which is a positive for the yellow metal as it remains the safest bet in such times. To watch next week – Earnings season, Inflation figures, Fed speakers and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold continued to build on the last week’s ultra bullish reversal candle as it added $10 for the week which saw a higher high as well. The close seems to provide another signal for prolonged bullishness as it broke the consolidation in lower timeframes which was successfully retested as well. In an expressive picture, it looks like a cup and handle in formation which if broken would just pile up the bullish cases as the major reversal signal of the double bottom formation got confirmed few days ago with only one large bullish breakout remaining – the flag/consolidation going on since weeks. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1755. If this is crossed it can move towards $1771. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1789. 2. Bearish bets still don’t find any value except scalp trades given the ongoing trend. Bullish view – Bulls had a successful outing as they created a higher high though unable to close at such highs still it remains a cause of celebration since another consolidation breakout has been achieved which affirms bullishness. For bulls, the technicals have come into full support which was missing sometime back while the fundamentals continue to demand higher prices since the pandemic is still at large with its 2nd wave getting uglier and deadlier even after lot of vaccination drives across the globe as the virus continues to mutate forcing countries to adopt lockdowns (even if partial) again as medical facilities remain at overwhelmed state. In simpler terms gold again got a new set of wings to fly. Bearishness remains cornered due to continuous bullish breakouts. On larger terms, gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1746 for the targets of $1755 and $1771 with a stop loss placed below $1737. Longer term target $1789. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
4