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Gold’s weekly outlook: Jan 25-29Gold again bounced back from the support and this move was broadly attributed to 2 things with the first being a continued fall in dollar and other being the uncertainty caused by the ongoing deadly pandemic. Last week’s important event of presidential transition was pretty uneventful in terms of the concerns it was roping in from days also failed to destabilize the gold as the focus shifted to an extra large stimulus on offing which in turn played the catalyst in the decline of dollar. Virus led fear might not reflect in current financial market as moreover everything is at or near to highs which can be another reason behind the lackluster movement in gold which should in actual terms fly given its safe haven nature since the situation post vaccination drive is not yet looking consoling as newer deadlier strains are raising questions regarding the effectiveness of current vaccines. And about the other geopolitical fundamentals, even they seem to never cease creating uncertainty. Things across the globe are looking equally gloomy as it was just a year back when the virus had started spreading and such similarity is due to moreorless exact copy of the spread by newer strains. In such a scenario gold remains the best investment asset class. To watch next week – Earnings, Fed meet, World Economic forum and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold made a dash towards the top of the flag again on lower dollar and added uncertainty but failed to break. This may look like a negative sign but again the pattern of inverse head and shoulders remains intact and in formation given the movement of the last week keeping the bullish trend alive. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1857. If this is crossed it can move towards $1875. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1886. 2. Bears tried hard again to push the price lower but failed suggesting the ongoing trend except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls made another attempt to break out of the flag on back of a falling dollar and rise in uncertainty but failed to do so. The move should be seen as not a negative one but a positive as the ongoing pattern formation of inverse head and shoulders remains intact which in itself is a bullish conveyor other than very disturbing fundamentals/event which has been ongoing since a year. With both technical and fundamentals in favor of bulls they might not be kept inside the flag for a longer duration and once the flag breaks with a solid confirmation then it will be no looking back. Bearishness continues to remain out of context. On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1858 for the targets of $1875 and $1886 with a stop loss placed below $1848. Longer term target $1901. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
Gold’s weekly outlook: Jan 11-15Gold had a wild week where it swung little more than $130 after gaping up on the first day. This unprecedented spin off post the breakout in daily timeframe can mostly be attributed to a sudden risk on attitude in the financial market which is clearly visible through bonds. Again fundamentally nothing absolutely nothing budged apart from an unexpected smooth transition of U.S presidency as Donald Trump vowed to provide so which was a question mark till it was announced. Infact more of negativity got collected in the past week mainly arising due to events (breach of U.S Capitol building by Trump supporters) connected with the outgoing president Donald Trump only which now has snowballed into another first in history types where again cries of impeachment has gone loud. This has raised the bar of uncertainty which does not seem to die down as after a brief positive development a larger negative one keeps the hands always full. Gold remains the best asset class in these times as developments are becoming extra sudden with the pandemic still continuing to wreck havoc as world now has to put a fight against the new strain which is spreading like the coronavirus did in its early days. To watch next week – Fed chair Jerome Powell speech, earnings, stimulus hopes, political developments and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold erupted higher as it broke through the consolidation via a gap up but failed to cling on above the breakout though the charts now are a bit confusing as it did actually break the flag but at the end of the week it settled much deeper back in the zone. This might be seen as a failed breakout attempt in weekly timeframe but likely a distorted breakout in daily as the pattern of inverse head and shoulders looks to be in formation which still keeps the trend bullish. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1857. If this is crossed it can move towards $1875. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1886. 2. Bears tried to find themselves once again as the weekly breakout got negated but still they need to do a lot to change trend in their favor except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls surpassed a major hurdle of breaking the consolidation with a good gap up but failed to build on it. They rather got messed up in the charts as weekly shows a failed attempt while daily depicts another chance to surge higher. The aspects favoring them hasn’t changed as fundamentals remain highly supportive while technical(s) have become somewhat less bullish due to last week’s unstable move. Bearishness still fails to entice. On larger terms, gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1858 for the targets of $1875 and $1886 with a stop loss placed below $1848. Longer term target $1901. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
Bearish Gold Getting Ready for a $1900 RETESTIn this technical analysis I share my current views on XAU/USD (Gold) with half a day left before the market closes. I tried to make the chart as self explanatory as possible, but feel free to reach out or drop a comment if you have any questions. This chart follows the same logic as my previous idea, which played out very well. I pride myself with having given the advice to NOT take the call and enter, as in real life you can't always take all of the trades. Make sure you wait for the right opportunity. -Trading-Guru
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Trading-Guru
8
Gold’s weekly outlook: Jan 04-08Gold ended 2020 on a strong note having a green week closing just shy of $1900 broadly on heightened uncertainty and a down-trending dollar. The current situation of the world remains conducive of higher gold price as the pandemic is still not showing any signs of weakening even after 10 months which spills over as a grave problem point in the 2021 as well even after multiple vaccine rollout(s), and such is the ferocity that most countries are experiencing a deadly 2nd wave which has forced them to again invoke strict restrictions and even partial to full lockdown(s) in badly affected areas which would not only impact the already battered economies but again stretch the disparity which would be impossible to heal. Not only this but geopolitical activities too continue to fuel uncertainty as well. With U.S presidency to change from 21st Jan, it will likely bring more confusion due to the President Elect’s mandate which seems to be directly opposite to Donald Trump’s actions. All this chaos would likely not be sorted that easily even if more than half of the world is vaccinated at a pretty brisk rate with gold staying as the best investment asset class given its safe haven nature for a much longer time. To watch next week – Opec meeting and other important economic activities. On the chart – Gold made a closing high again testing the flag/channel top and ending just below it. A mere push would force the gold out of its 22 week consolidation and such can be achieved with a gap up which is generally the case with such large consolidation breakouts. All the levers (technically and fundamentally) look set for the breakout and once it is achieved then the bull run will get a new set of wings and it would definitely move towards a new high in lesser time than expected. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1901. If this is crossed it can move towards $1921. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1945. 2. Bears will have no chance once the flag/consolidation breaks on the upside except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls tried again to capture $1900s but failed to do so as the flag resistance still remains a substantial hurdle which would be easy to conquer with a gap up and it is becoming the most likely scenario as gold ended extremely close to the top of the channel/flag. Fundamentals play their part in supporting higher gold price as the pandemic created situation(s) is only worsening even after vaccine rollout and it doesn’t look to sober down any time soon as the second wave is proving more deadly than expected. With a massive breakout in sight and ailing fundamentals bulls have their feet in the runner’s shoes. Bearishness continues to remain out of context. On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1902 for the targets of $1921 and $1945 with a stop loss placed below $1893. Longer term target $1963. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
Gold’s weekly outlook: Dec 28 – Jan 01Gold moved higher crossing $1900 briefly mainly on back of a lower dollar and substantial rise in uncertainty due to the spreading of the second strain of coronavirus which forced a near total lockdown of the United Kingdom where as other countries were also pushed to take measures to curb the spread of new virus strain though it has already reached in many parts of the world. This spread of the new strain also raises the question of the viability of the vaccines launched earlier though the companies are confident about its use against the new coronavirus still the vaccines are being tested once again on the fresh strain which does nothing but raises the already heightened uncertainty. Apart from the pandemic, another news flow/event of concerning nature evolves around President Donald Trump (who has less than a month of office remaining) as he rejected the coronavirus relief bill which would lead to the shutdown of the government if not vetoed in coming days. Situation across the globe remains precarious as the virus is still not giving any breathing space to the already battered economies and with winter the next few months would be pretty difficult which should provide ample push to the gold prices on the upside. Plus as the year nears the end not much should be expected as generally the holiday mood distances investors/traders from the markets in this patch. To watch next week – Coronavirus bill and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold remained indecisive as it was confined between the support and the resistance. This type of move might look orderly given the time of the year where most people have book closures and a holiday mood. Again a higher high and a cross of $1900 even though briefly depicts the ongoing trend. Gold still remains in the flag/consolidation whose high was tested last week and its largely expected that the flag should break on the upside quite soon given the ongoing fundamentals and the obvious technical push of smaller breakouts. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1886. If this is crossed it can move towards $1901. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1921. 2. Bearish bets still don’t find any value except scalp trades given the ongoing trend. Bullish view – Bulls pushed the price above $1900 with quite a force but failed to stay afloat above it as the flag resistance/top proved quite stubborn on the first try along with the holiday mood/book closures which dampens regular activity. The bar formed shows indecisiveness but the close suggests otherwise providing the bulls enough faith to again try and break the ongoing weekly flag. The fundamentals show strong support to the bulls as the pandemic and other political activities continue to raise uncertainty while the technicals continue to remain bullish due to smaller breakouts and once the flag is broken then the bulls will have total say over the yellow metal with new high on the cards. Bearishness still fails to entice as the trend remains bullish. On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1881 for the targets of $1886 and $1901 with a stop loss placed below $1871. Longer term target $1921. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
2
Watching Gold for a real breakout rally... or breakdown While many may be bullish on Gold in the short term, I find that Gold is acting a little off and weirdly too. With a fiercely dropping USD, Gold is barely in demand (in the short term). This tells of either a burst breakout rally or a slow breakdown as Gold has slowly creeped up in the last three weeks. Having bounced off the initial downside target of 1800, Gold is marginally below 1900, and it just failed the downtrending channel resistance despite clocking a series of higher lows and higher highs. Watch this one reveal its true colours... soon.
COMEX:GC1!
by Auguraltrader
4th Extended Drive Gold Shorts Explained. Shorting Gold into 1850.00 as mentioned on prev analysis. Commodity went 60-70 pips past crucial weekly level to take out all intraweek/swing sellers and also putting in buyers into the market. It has made 200+ pips in just the Assian session so im expecting a intraday meltdown into the current LOD for the next two sessions ahead. Feeling confident about the move but anything can happen in this market so trade smart. Let's grab this bag for Christmas! Peace Out
FX:XAUUSDShort
by tropicalinvestor
1