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Gold Bullish Sentiment Personality, I feel that we have met the GOLD bottom for the year. Possibly forever. Well, my $1830 target 🎯 missed by $12, but that's OK. So, why do I think the bottom is in the past? Dollar Devaluation The US Fed has devalued the dollar through a number of tools. This has and will have an effect on the equity & commodity markets. See, when the dollar is weak, the equity markets will rally - this has an implication that there will be no stock market crash any time soon. How the FED actions affect the market - -> In addition to this, as long as the equity markets rally and DXY remains weak Gold, silver, lumber, and agricultural futures will rally. Dollar Devaluation impact - - > Gold & Silver as a store for value. It's no secret that the DXY currently isn't the best for storing value as a reserve currency. Near-term bonds & yields are also at record low levels hence making it unattractive for hedge funds to stick to the traditional 60:40 portfolio allocation models as central banks are already flirting with the possibility of negative interest rates. So, what can they use as a store for value? [* Mining If you follow gold mining, you already know that there has been no gold discovery recently. This translated to basic demand-supply economics means that the price might shoot up. See, gold demand is going to rise in 2021. Last month's delivery of gold from futures was high and this is going to rapidly rise as we approach the December deadline for the GC1! continuous futures. You could also trade the VANECK gold miners ETF for a nice highly correlated compounding trade. CFTC COT WEEKLY DATA Hedge funds remaining bullish with record high net positions seen from last week's report with 323k long positions open. On the other hand, we are in volatile times, therefore, be careful. We are not yet out of the woods. Price is currently testing a breakout from a descending wedge. If it successfully stays above the $1912 support level, it's safe to assume that $1960 and $2000 are the next targets. If you agree with the idea, like or leave a comment below 👍🏿 👍🏿
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by GrizzlyBearBee
Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 12-16Gold printed another green candle on back of dollar weakness ending the week not only above $1900 but above the crucial level of $1920s which tends to be the gatekeeper for the further price movement. As ever so important event of U.S election draws closer volatility will continue to ramp up irrespective of the nature of news flow rather even small things will be looked through magnifying glass just for the sake of speculation which definitely suggests that gold will remain in an uptrend due to its safe haven status. The ongoing fundamental issues like geopolitical tensions and round two of the pandemic continues to keep the world enveloped in uncertainty while on the vaccine front October is a critical month as most of the trial results are due this month. Net net all factors remain supportive of the bullishness. To watch next week – Earnings, Fedspeak, Brexit talks and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold closed above the important $1920s level broadly on account of a falling dollar clearly suggesting the ongoing trend as all dips towards supports are being bought. The bounce from the 20 day moving average defines a short term low and likely cracks open the deeper demand zone. Again last week gold broke out from the triangle/wedge which poses as a sufficient cause of bullishness apart from the ongoing concerns and the broader chart which is extremely bullish unless it turns otherwise which is a low probability. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1945. If this is crossed it can move towards $1963. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1989. 2. Bearish bets remains isolated as gold closed above the support except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls came roaring back as gold closed above the important level of $1920 as dollar remained in downtrend. Not only did the bulls manage to close above the crucial support but also made another breakout from triangle/wedge on daily timeframe showcasing their prowess. Factors/fundamentals promoting bullishness remains intact rather it just adds on every week like the surge in virus cases across the globe and the ongoing Asian drama. Technicals remain largely supportive of higher prices due to pattern breakouts and supports being respected. Till November 03 event all asset classes will likely remain volatile with gold benefiting the most out of this scenario. Bears remain exiled as the gold closed above the support. On larger terms, gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1936 for the targets of $1945 and $1963 with a stop loss placed below $1925. Longer term target $1989. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
1
Gold breaking out again, but wait...The Gold GC1! Weekly chart shows a repeated pattern where a corrective wave forms a wedge and then breaks out. This has had happened previously, and it is followed by a relatively strong bull rally. Also plotted are the net positions of the Non-Commercials and the Top 8 Traders, according to CFTC data. And again, it shows a repeated pattern where there is a breakout of Non-Commercials net positions (Orange line, lower panel) with a concomitant breakdown of Top 8 Traders net positions (Yellow line, lower panel). The cyan horizontal lines mark the week where the breakouts occur, and you can see the repeated pattern. One observation is that in the last two times, MACD cross up occured after retracement to near the zero line. This time, all else appearing similar, the MACD is falling with momentum instead of crossing up. This could be an indicator to suggest that this breakout might be limited, and could be the last one before resumption of further downside. At this point, it is worth a cautionary note, which otherwise, appear to see Gold being on a bullish breakout.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Auguraltrader
Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 05-09Gold retraced back almost 50% of last week’s loss as uncertainty continued to weigh in and with U.S elections not being even a month away the volatility will continue to muddle investment instruments. Again with gold seemingly looking a bit torn down post the fall below $1920s, fundamentals continue pouring in support and this time its a massive cause of uncertainty in form of U.S President Donald Trump being diagnosed with the novel coronavirus which will definitely impact forthcoming elections thus generating wide array of speculative bets across asset classes. On the ongoing crisis as in the pandemic, new infections are rising at a very rapid speed compared to a month before in almost every corner of the world signalling more economic pain ahead with no vaccine in sight in the near term while on geopolitical front things haven’t taken a backseat either which only adds to uncertainty if not anything else. To watch next week – Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis, Powell’s speech, Stimulus talks and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold immediately made a green candle after a big red one suggesting the trend might not have changed at all even after the break of crucial support of $1920s rather it continues to remain in an uptrend as the 20 day moving average was tested and the price bounced back. The breakout from inverse head and shoulders pattern remains intact as it also got tested during the fall clearly pointing towards a next leg up till the support holds. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1901. If this is crossed it can move towards $1921. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1945. 2. Bearish bets might have finally received a wake up call but again the support was held keeping the trend bullish except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls managed a near 50% recovery of past week’s loss mainly on back of increased uncertainty caused by the nearing presidential elections along with the rise in rate of infections across the globe as the pandemic intensifies. For bulls, forgoing $1920s might just be a step backwards to prepare for the next set of rally as across the table all factors be it technical or fundamentals remain largely supportive as it is the best safe haven at the moment with dollar looking comparatively weak. For the price to keep moving higher, bulls need to defend the supports while aiming for fresh highs. Bears yet again got duped as the supports were held and price bounced back higher. On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1921 for the targets of $1945 and $1963 with a stop loss placed below $1908. Longer term target $1989. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
4
Iron Ore - where to next?Thanks for viewing. This will just be a short one. My reasons for bearishness are: - bearish RSI divergence (higher price high shown as a lower high on the RSI - at a minimum indicates reduced momentum but normally precedes changes in price direction), - MACD histogram is trending downward quite steeply, - MACD moving averages look like they are starting to head towards a cross-over to the downside, - Declining volume over the past 18 months (seems to average over 400 in May 2019 and is about 120 now), - A generalised global industrial slowdown. I may be wrong, or I may be right but just too early, and there may be residual upside remaining. Medium term I see price heading back to ~$40 level. Protect those funds.
COMEX:TIO1!Short
by flyinkiwi10
MCX Aluminium Intraday Tips For TodayAccording to this chart, aluminium is moving flat under the rectangle pattern. The top of this rectangle is the resistance , and the bottom of this rectangle is the support . The trend is making frequent parallel channels between the support and resistance of this rectangle. At present, aluminium is playing into support trendline (B) . There is a crucial support. Fakeout, volume spike, tail, massive buying pressure, and S-RSI crossover is made in that area. So, break out of the crucial support means downfall for the levels of 143.6 - 142.6 . ...but aluminium will try to climb because of 50 & 10 MA crossover. Therefore we may see prices at 146.6 - 147.4 - 148+ soon.
MCX:ALUMINIUM1!Long
by freestocktips
Elliott Wave View: Support Area for SilverElliott Wave View of Silver (XAG) suggests the cycle from September 1 high has ended as wave (1) at 25.82 low. From there, the metal bounce higher in wave (2). The correction unfolded as zigzag Elliott Wave Structure. Up from wave (1) low, wave A ended at 27.48 high. The dip in wave B ended at 26.54 low. Afterwards, the metal resumed higher and ended wave C at 27.60 high. This ended wave (2) in the higher degree. Since then, the commodity has resumed the decline lower. Down from wave (2) high, wave 1 ended at 26.26 low. The subdivision of wave 1 unfolded as 5 waves impulse structure. Wave ((i)) ended at 26.98 low and wave ((ii)) bounce ended at 27.43 high. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 26.69 low and wave ((iv)) bounce ended at 26.94 high. The push lower in wave ((v)) ended at 26.26 low. The metal then bounced higher in wave 2, which ended at 27.22 high. Afterwards, the metal resumed lower in wave 3, which ended at 23.67 low. The bounce in wave 4 ended at 25.24 high. Currently, wave 5 is in progress. As long as 27.60 stays intact, expect the bounces in 3,7 or 11 swings to fail for more downside. The 100 – 161.8% extension from August 7 high is at 18.36 – 22.39 area. If reached, that area can see support for 3 waves bounce at least.
FX_IDC:XAGUSD
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Potentially undervalued counter-cyclic asset classHello, Thanks for viewing. Really nice to see the encouragement and feedback from my last post about the gold/silver ratio. This is to share another of my recently entered, but shortly to grow significantly in size, positions. Boring old Commodities. If you look at a long-term chart, commodities have been on a largely downward slide for over 29 years. I just looked up a 100 year Commodities chart and had a chuckle reading how a blogger was calling the bottom on commodities in 2017 when the index was around 40% higher than now (blog.gorozen.com). So, I realise that it is unlikely that I started looking into commodities right at the bottom of the market. Still, there are good reasons to be a buyer. 1. From TA, it looks like we are nearing a bottom. I would tentatively put it between $5.40 and $3, however, things can change quickly and I decided to start creating a position, 2. I like Ray Dalio, I like him so much I have invested into GSG despite overall very negative outlook on ETFs (please please don't invest in GLD). So Ray Dalio was talking on a YT video with Tony Robbins (yeah the guy with the huge teeth) about his all-weather portfolio. Since, in early 2019, I was trying to find a way to "recession-proof" myself in expectation of a recession (The US was nearing its longest and weakest expansion in history with rather high debts - I never would have guessed that in a recession that already overvalued stocks with no chance of producing a dividend return would become the stock-market darlings). Check out the basics of his portfolio here: www.lazyportfolioetf.com Now, I haven't done all of it and I probably won't. I started with stocks (up to 30%), Precious metals (supposed to be 7.5% but I have replaced a significant portion of the bonds in the portfolio with precious metals - because of the negative real return of treasuries. I have posts about the S&P500, Shiller 10 year PE ratio, and my treasuries entry - which would have been in Oct 2018 - if I did pull the trigger. At the time, I thought the bonds return was too low to warrant an investment... turns out 3% wasn't that low after all. Long story short, I am probably 30% precious metals, 10% bonds, 30% stocks, <1% GSG but adding more up to a goal of 7.5%, the rest is cash looking for a home in income-producing real assets at some future date (and some crypto). I am buying, even though I think we aren't yet at the bottom, just because of how difficult it is to pick the low point in the market. Commodities have bottomed out in 1929 (that seems a significant date), the mid to late 1960s, and a 10 year down-trend pulled back around 1998-9. I am especially interested in the 1929 bottom, that happened around the time equities reached all-time high valuations in terms of PE and Market Cap/GDP (of course these have been exceeded in the current market). I feel we are approaching a 1929 type of moment. There are some interesting things happening of late; massive demand increases and shortages for both physical bullion and lumber (lumber isn't on the ETF) as people move away from intangible assets and populated main centres etc. There is a very real possibility that people will look to other tangible things, things with inherent value, should paper assets and a vast array of financial derivatives blow up (again). Add in the Fed's goal to stoke inflation (and then stop it again when it reaches its target) and we have at least a possibility, an outside chance, that Commodities will be valued higher. I'm sure I had more to say, but I am watching the Dow drop like a stone. Protect those funds
AMEX:GSGLong
by flyinkiwi10
Gold’s weekly outlook: Sept 21-25Gold yet again remained in consolidation even after another pattern breakout offering no respite to either camps (bulls and bears) as they just kept biting into one another for glory. This kind of nonchalant movement with every weekly candle closing above the trendline support remains one of the key indicators for the continuity of the trend on technical front while fundamentals remains largely supportive for higher prices as officially pandemic enters into the 2nd wave though comparatively less lethal but its forcing countries to reimpose strict restrictions which raises uncertainty of economic revival even more along with ongoing geopolitical concerns. For gold this year is quite special as it has one of the most important events – U.S Presidential Elections which in itself is a huge ambivalence generator. While dollar tried several times to reverse course post Fed policy outcome which ultimately it could not adding to the bullish build of gold and stop-start vaccine trials continue to add anxiety. To watch this week – Fed Chair Powell testimony and other important economic events. On the chart – While gold’s showcased struggle continues as it remains range bound unable to break away, its pretty evident from the price action that its technically in a strong bull trend breaking pattern after pattern on weekly basis. Again another triangle was broken in daily timeframe which was also retested reigniting hopes of a directive move finally. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1963. If this is crossed it can move towards $1989. And if this is taken out it can rally to $2008. 2. Bearish bets remain in denial as breakouts are happening on the upside except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls finally broke the ongoing triangle which they were stuck in plus even had a successful retest of the breakout adding to the prevailing bullishness and hopefully this move should lead to a directive price action. The technical aspect looks quite formidable post the breakout, fundamentals too provide massive support as uncertainty is on the rise with pandemic evolving into 2nd wave in most countries along with overly concerning geopolitical issues. And being the election year gold can see sharp moves with $2700 plus as a mid to long term target. Bearishness still remains off grid. On larger terms, Gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1955 for the targets of $1963 and $1989 with a stop loss placed below $1944. Longer term target $2008. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
3
Gold has an early indication of potential breakout rallyThe week ended with Gold going nowhere, but early indications suggest a possible potential breakout rally. Compare the current setup with the previous setup and entry (white arrow), the technicals appear similar yet again, as well as candlestick pattern shows a bullish harami... just like a coiling pattern. Having said that, being very wary about this imminent (and yet to be confirmed breakout) as the higher time frame suggest a toppish area about 2100, and an expected handle pattern to form (faint yellow line). Meanwhile, the breakout range spans 1930 to 1980. Perhaps other aspects might be giving some insights, especially the USD? Watch for it.
COMEX:GC1!
by Auguraltrader
MCX Natural gas Struggling at Strong SupportOn the chart above, we have plotted three different MAs on the 1-hour chart of MCX Natural gas futures. As you can see, the 62 MA is indicating a downtrend ahead. And 5 MA & 30 MA are crossing each other for a reversal. This reversal can be for 174 to 180 levels. But according to the support & resistance trendline, we may see continue price collapsing. I have also highlighted a support area with green color . Particularly from this point, it's taking a u-turn. For safe traders, short positions can be initiated after 170 levels. Targets: 167.6 - 165 - 162.6 - 160
MCX:NATURALGAS1!
by freestocktips
11
Gold's Most Important Levels Before The WeekendIn this analysis I will go over Gold's most important levels right now and show you a potential trade set-up. The first and most important thing that I want to highlight is the location of the price currently with regards to its distance to horizontal levels. We can see that the price is far away from the nearest very strong support zone, but also not very close to the resistance zone level I. The means that we cannot possibly enter a trade with a good risk-reward. Please be patient and don't enter a trade right now. Wait for the price to get closer to a horizontal level first. Seeing as gold is trending bullish I would suggest to wait for the price to get close to the horizontal resistance zone and get ready for a short trade there. There is quite a chance on a reversal seeing that gold reversed from bullish to bearish the last three times it hit the zone around $1,970. The horizontal support zone at the bottom seems the be extremely strong, so I wouldn't trade any short position beyond the $1,900 level. You should probably take profit slightly above the zone at around $1,915. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trading-Guru
16
Elliott Wave View: Correction in Oil CompletedElliott Wave View of Oil (CL) suggests the cycle from August 26 high has ended as wave II. The correction unfolded as double three Elliott Wave Structure. Down from August 26 high, wave ((W)) ended at 40.22 low. The bounce in wave ((X)) ended at 41.87 high. Afterwards, the commodity resumed lower and ended wave ((Y)) at 36.21 low. This ended wave II pullback in the higher degree. Since then, the commodity has resumed the rally higher. Up from wave II low, wave 1 ended at 38.45 high. Wave 2 dip unfolded as zigzag correction and ended at 36.67 low. Currently, wave 3 higher is in progress. The subdivision of wave 3 is unfolding as 5 waves impulse structure. Wave ((i)) ended at 37.82 high and wave ((ii)) dip ended at 36.82 low. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 40.34 high. Afterwards, pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 39.51 low. Oil can push for another high before ending wave 3 and followed by a pullback in wave 4 later. As long as 36.21 low stays intact, expect the dips in 3,7 or 11 swings to find support. However, oil still needs to break above August 26 high at 43.78 to confirm that next leg higher in wave III has already started. Otherwise, wave II could still unfold as a double correction before upside resume again.
NYMEX:CLV2020
by Elliottwave-Forecast