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Commodity

Gold breaking out again, but wait...The Gold GC1! Weekly chart shows a repeated pattern where a corrective wave forms a wedge and then breaks out. This has had happened previously, and it is followed by a relatively strong bull rally. Also plotted are the net positions of the Non-Commercials and the Top 8 Traders, according to CFTC data. And again, it shows a repeated pattern where there is a breakout of Non-Commercials net positions (Orange line, lower panel) with a concomitant breakdown of Top 8 Traders net positions (Yellow line, lower panel). The cyan horizontal lines mark the week where the breakouts occur, and you can see the repeated pattern. One observation is that in the last two times, MACD cross up occured after retracement to near the zero line. This time, all else appearing similar, the MACD is falling with momentum instead of crossing up. This could be an indicator to suggest that this breakout might be limited, and could be the last one before resumption of further downside. At this point, it is worth a cautionary note, which otherwise, appear to see Gold being on a bullish breakout.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Auguraltrader
Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 05-09Gold retraced back almost 50% of last week’s loss as uncertainty continued to weigh in and with U.S elections not being even a month away the volatility will continue to muddle investment instruments. Again with gold seemingly looking a bit torn down post the fall below $1920s, fundamentals continue pouring in support and this time its a massive cause of uncertainty in form of U.S President Donald Trump being diagnosed with the novel coronavirus which will definitely impact forthcoming elections thus generating wide array of speculative bets across asset classes. On the ongoing crisis as in the pandemic, new infections are rising at a very rapid speed compared to a month before in almost every corner of the world signalling more economic pain ahead with no vaccine in sight in the near term while on geopolitical front things haven’t taken a backseat either which only adds to uncertainty if not anything else. To watch next week – Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis, Powell’s speech, Stimulus talks and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold immediately made a green candle after a big red one suggesting the trend might not have changed at all even after the break of crucial support of $1920s rather it continues to remain in an uptrend as the 20 day moving average was tested and the price bounced back. The breakout from inverse head and shoulders pattern remains intact as it also got tested during the fall clearly pointing towards a next leg up till the support holds. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1901. If this is crossed it can move towards $1921. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1945. 2. Bearish bets might have finally received a wake up call but again the support was held keeping the trend bullish except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls managed a near 50% recovery of past week’s loss mainly on back of increased uncertainty caused by the nearing presidential elections along with the rise in rate of infections across the globe as the pandemic intensifies. For bulls, forgoing $1920s might just be a step backwards to prepare for the next set of rally as across the table all factors be it technical or fundamentals remain largely supportive as it is the best safe haven at the moment with dollar looking comparatively weak. For the price to keep moving higher, bulls need to defend the supports while aiming for fresh highs. Bears yet again got duped as the supports were held and price bounced back higher. On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1921 for the targets of $1945 and $1963 with a stop loss placed below $1908. Longer term target $1989. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
4
Iron Ore - where to next?Thanks for viewing. This will just be a short one. My reasons for bearishness are: - bearish RSI divergence (higher price high shown as a lower high on the RSI - at a minimum indicates reduced momentum but normally precedes changes in price direction), - MACD histogram is trending downward quite steeply, - MACD moving averages look like they are starting to head towards a cross-over to the downside, - Declining volume over the past 18 months (seems to average over 400 in May 2019 and is about 120 now), - A generalised global industrial slowdown. I may be wrong, or I may be right but just too early, and there may be residual upside remaining. Medium term I see price heading back to ~$40 level. Protect those funds.
COMEX:TIO1!Short
by flyinkiwi10
MCX Aluminium Intraday Tips For TodayAccording to this chart, aluminium is moving flat under the rectangle pattern. The top of this rectangle is the resistance , and the bottom of this rectangle is the support . The trend is making frequent parallel channels between the support and resistance of this rectangle. At present, aluminium is playing into support trendline (B) . There is a crucial support. Fakeout, volume spike, tail, massive buying pressure, and S-RSI crossover is made in that area. So, break out of the crucial support means downfall for the levels of 143.6 - 142.6 . ...but aluminium will try to climb because of 50 & 10 MA crossover. Therefore we may see prices at 146.6 - 147.4 - 148+ soon.
MCX:ALUMINIUM1!Long
by freestocktips
Elliott Wave View: Support Area for SilverElliott Wave View of Silver (XAG) suggests the cycle from September 1 high has ended as wave (1) at 25.82 low. From there, the metal bounce higher in wave (2). The correction unfolded as zigzag Elliott Wave Structure. Up from wave (1) low, wave A ended at 27.48 high. The dip in wave B ended at 26.54 low. Afterwards, the metal resumed higher and ended wave C at 27.60 high. This ended wave (2) in the higher degree. Since then, the commodity has resumed the decline lower. Down from wave (2) high, wave 1 ended at 26.26 low. The subdivision of wave 1 unfolded as 5 waves impulse structure. Wave ((i)) ended at 26.98 low and wave ((ii)) bounce ended at 27.43 high. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 26.69 low and wave ((iv)) bounce ended at 26.94 high. The push lower in wave ((v)) ended at 26.26 low. The metal then bounced higher in wave 2, which ended at 27.22 high. Afterwards, the metal resumed lower in wave 3, which ended at 23.67 low. The bounce in wave 4 ended at 25.24 high. Currently, wave 5 is in progress. As long as 27.60 stays intact, expect the bounces in 3,7 or 11 swings to fail for more downside. The 100 – 161.8% extension from August 7 high is at 18.36 – 22.39 area. If reached, that area can see support for 3 waves bounce at least.
FX_IDC:XAGUSD
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Potentially undervalued counter-cyclic asset classHello, Thanks for viewing. Really nice to see the encouragement and feedback from my last post about the gold/silver ratio. This is to share another of my recently entered, but shortly to grow significantly in size, positions. Boring old Commodities. If you look at a long-term chart, commodities have been on a largely downward slide for over 29 years. I just looked up a 100 year Commodities chart and had a chuckle reading how a blogger was calling the bottom on commodities in 2017 when the index was around 40% higher than now (blog.gorozen.com). So, I realise that it is unlikely that I started looking into commodities right at the bottom of the market. Still, there are good reasons to be a buyer. 1. From TA, it looks like we are nearing a bottom. I would tentatively put it between $5.40 and $3, however, things can change quickly and I decided to start creating a position, 2. I like Ray Dalio, I like him so much I have invested into GSG despite overall very negative outlook on ETFs (please please don't invest in GLD). So Ray Dalio was talking on a YT video with Tony Robbins (yeah the guy with the huge teeth) about his all-weather portfolio. Since, in early 2019, I was trying to find a way to "recession-proof" myself in expectation of a recession (The US was nearing its longest and weakest expansion in history with rather high debts - I never would have guessed that in a recession that already overvalued stocks with no chance of producing a dividend return would become the stock-market darlings). Check out the basics of his portfolio here: www.lazyportfolioetf.com Now, I haven't done all of it and I probably won't. I started with stocks (up to 30%), Precious metals (supposed to be 7.5% but I have replaced a significant portion of the bonds in the portfolio with precious metals - because of the negative real return of treasuries. I have posts about the S&P500, Shiller 10 year PE ratio, and my treasuries entry - which would have been in Oct 2018 - if I did pull the trigger. At the time, I thought the bonds return was too low to warrant an investment... turns out 3% wasn't that low after all. Long story short, I am probably 30% precious metals, 10% bonds, 30% stocks, <1% GSG but adding more up to a goal of 7.5%, the rest is cash looking for a home in income-producing real assets at some future date (and some crypto). I am buying, even though I think we aren't yet at the bottom, just because of how difficult it is to pick the low point in the market. Commodities have bottomed out in 1929 (that seems a significant date), the mid to late 1960s, and a 10 year down-trend pulled back around 1998-9. I am especially interested in the 1929 bottom, that happened around the time equities reached all-time high valuations in terms of PE and Market Cap/GDP (of course these have been exceeded in the current market). I feel we are approaching a 1929 type of moment. There are some interesting things happening of late; massive demand increases and shortages for both physical bullion and lumber (lumber isn't on the ETF) as people move away from intangible assets and populated main centres etc. There is a very real possibility that people will look to other tangible things, things with inherent value, should paper assets and a vast array of financial derivatives blow up (again). Add in the Fed's goal to stoke inflation (and then stop it again when it reaches its target) and we have at least a possibility, an outside chance, that Commodities will be valued higher. I'm sure I had more to say, but I am watching the Dow drop like a stone. Protect those funds
AMEX:GSGLong
by flyinkiwi10
Gold’s weekly outlook: Sept 21-25Gold yet again remained in consolidation even after another pattern breakout offering no respite to either camps (bulls and bears) as they just kept biting into one another for glory. This kind of nonchalant movement with every weekly candle closing above the trendline support remains one of the key indicators for the continuity of the trend on technical front while fundamentals remains largely supportive for higher prices as officially pandemic enters into the 2nd wave though comparatively less lethal but its forcing countries to reimpose strict restrictions which raises uncertainty of economic revival even more along with ongoing geopolitical concerns. For gold this year is quite special as it has one of the most important events – U.S Presidential Elections which in itself is a huge ambivalence generator. While dollar tried several times to reverse course post Fed policy outcome which ultimately it could not adding to the bullish build of gold and stop-start vaccine trials continue to add anxiety. To watch this week – Fed Chair Powell testimony and other important economic events. On the chart – While gold’s showcased struggle continues as it remains range bound unable to break away, its pretty evident from the price action that its technically in a strong bull trend breaking pattern after pattern on weekly basis. Again another triangle was broken in daily timeframe which was also retested reigniting hopes of a directive move finally. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1963. If this is crossed it can move towards $1989. And if this is taken out it can rally to $2008. 2. Bearish bets remain in denial as breakouts are happening on the upside except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls finally broke the ongoing triangle which they were stuck in plus even had a successful retest of the breakout adding to the prevailing bullishness and hopefully this move should lead to a directive price action. The technical aspect looks quite formidable post the breakout, fundamentals too provide massive support as uncertainty is on the rise with pandemic evolving into 2nd wave in most countries along with overly concerning geopolitical issues. And being the election year gold can see sharp moves with $2700 plus as a mid to long term target. Bearishness still remains off grid. On larger terms, Gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1955 for the targets of $1963 and $1989 with a stop loss placed below $1944. Longer term target $2008. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
3
Gold has an early indication of potential breakout rallyThe week ended with Gold going nowhere, but early indications suggest a possible potential breakout rally. Compare the current setup with the previous setup and entry (white arrow), the technicals appear similar yet again, as well as candlestick pattern shows a bullish harami... just like a coiling pattern. Having said that, being very wary about this imminent (and yet to be confirmed breakout) as the higher time frame suggest a toppish area about 2100, and an expected handle pattern to form (faint yellow line). Meanwhile, the breakout range spans 1930 to 1980. Perhaps other aspects might be giving some insights, especially the USD? Watch for it.
COMEX:GC1!
by Auguraltrader
MCX Natural gas Struggling at Strong SupportOn the chart above, we have plotted three different MAs on the 1-hour chart of MCX Natural gas futures. As you can see, the 62 MA is indicating a downtrend ahead. And 5 MA & 30 MA are crossing each other for a reversal. This reversal can be for 174 to 180 levels. But according to the support & resistance trendline, we may see continue price collapsing. I have also highlighted a support area with green color . Particularly from this point, it's taking a u-turn. For safe traders, short positions can be initiated after 170 levels. Targets: 167.6 - 165 - 162.6 - 160
MCX:NATURALGAS1!
by freestocktips
11
Gold's Most Important Levels Before The WeekendIn this analysis I will go over Gold's most important levels right now and show you a potential trade set-up. The first and most important thing that I want to highlight is the location of the price currently with regards to its distance to horizontal levels. We can see that the price is far away from the nearest very strong support zone, but also not very close to the resistance zone level I. The means that we cannot possibly enter a trade with a good risk-reward. Please be patient and don't enter a trade right now. Wait for the price to get closer to a horizontal level first. Seeing as gold is trending bullish I would suggest to wait for the price to get close to the horizontal resistance zone and get ready for a short trade there. There is quite a chance on a reversal seeing that gold reversed from bullish to bearish the last three times it hit the zone around $1,970. The horizontal support zone at the bottom seems the be extremely strong, so I wouldn't trade any short position beyond the $1,900 level. You should probably take profit slightly above the zone at around $1,915. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trading-Guru
16
Elliott Wave View: Correction in Oil CompletedElliott Wave View of Oil (CL) suggests the cycle from August 26 high has ended as wave II. The correction unfolded as double three Elliott Wave Structure. Down from August 26 high, wave ((W)) ended at 40.22 low. The bounce in wave ((X)) ended at 41.87 high. Afterwards, the commodity resumed lower and ended wave ((Y)) at 36.21 low. This ended wave II pullback in the higher degree. Since then, the commodity has resumed the rally higher. Up from wave II low, wave 1 ended at 38.45 high. Wave 2 dip unfolded as zigzag correction and ended at 36.67 low. Currently, wave 3 higher is in progress. The subdivision of wave 3 is unfolding as 5 waves impulse structure. Wave ((i)) ended at 37.82 high and wave ((ii)) dip ended at 36.82 low. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 40.34 high. Afterwards, pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 39.51 low. Oil can push for another high before ending wave 3 and followed by a pullback in wave 4 later. As long as 36.21 low stays intact, expect the dips in 3,7 or 11 swings to find support. However, oil still needs to break above August 26 high at 43.78 to confirm that next leg higher in wave III has already started. Otherwise, wave II could still unfold as a double correction before upside resume again.
NYMEX:CLV2020
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Gold’s weekly outlook: Sept 14-18Gold for the 4th straight week proved to be directionless with moves limited in a range although its continuously sending bullish signals via breakouts over and over again. Probably it can be seen as a wait and watch game going on in gold as it seeks further direction from U.S Fed which is due to meet on 16th for its monetary policy or maybe its the same old operator play happening before a substantial move where all the retail bets are cleaned up before any actual movement. This stalemate from gold can be clearly contradicted by a breakdown in dollar and the ailing fundamentals across the the globe which is still reeling under pressure of the pandemic along with geopolitical tensions which seem to tag along without any concessions. All the buzz around a probable vaccine and its availability remains just a noise until one is actually cleared by the FDA which continues to be a generator of uncertainty. Going with the above factors it is quite easy to detect the ongoing trend of gold which remains bullish until things make an one-eighty degree move. To watch next week – U.S fed meeting, Brexit talks and other important economic data. On the chart – While gold poses indecisiveness chart suggests otherwise as pattern breakouts are being registered and tested almost every week which advocate continuity of the trend once the lull ends. Last week once again gold had a triangle breakout which can be eyed as an extension of previous triangle which had already been broken. The 10 day moving average (weekly) has also been tested as it caught up with time consolidation suggesting gold might finally be ready to make a directive move. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1945. If this is crossed it can move towards $1963. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1989. 2. Short bets continue to be void in the given situation except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls again held the support of previous high as they continue to fight in the consolidation. It might be tiring for the bulls to just hang around without being able to push the price higher but this movement only strengthens the trend as the supports are getting stronger with every retest with a possibility of a large move remaining high. Apart from the ongoing uncertainty caused by pandemic and other cross border tensions, technically gold has provided another breakout which should aid the bulls further for the quest of $2700 plus in medium to long term. Bears still don’t find any trade support as trend remains bullish. On larger terms, Gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1947 for the targets of $1963 and $1989 with a stop loss placed below $1935. Longer term target $2008. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
4
Gold’s weekly outlook: Sept 07-11Gold remained in consolidation even after the breakout as a fresh wave of profit booking ensued across all asset classes in the last 2 days of the week which can be again termed as flushing of retailer bets since the fall was limited to the retest of previous high/breakout. This agonizing movement of gold which is clearly saddled between the support and resistance does not offer much of composure in either camp as bets are getting restless and indeed once the consolidation gets broken it would lead to a quite large directional move which ideally should be on the upside since its already having a bullish breakout along with fundamental support comprising mainly of a weaker dollar. The Fed Chair Powell again reiterated the easing stance and signaled lower rates till the situation improves which is an unlikely scenario in short – medium term as the damage done/being done by the pandemic is severe and would require substantial amount of time to get economic order back to normal. On the positive side, again the vaccine news is doing rounds with countries claiming to use them for general masses as they seem satisfied by the trial but again none of the said vaccines have got a FDA clearance which makes them an uncertainty. For gold both situations are a win win as uncertainty remains at large in either which should keep the trend intact. To watch next week – ECB meeting and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold had a red week of consolidation but nothing changed on the technical front rather trend got even more confirmed as the supports got tested again. Gold remains in an uptrend with breakouts being revisited only to get more credible as the dollar remains weak and in downtrend which shall be the likely scenario going forward as well since the money printing is in no sight of being paused or stopped. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1945. If this is crossed it can move towards $1963. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1989. 2. Short trades remain baseless except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls had another hostile week as the price moved between the support and the resistance with no clear direction even after having a breakout in the week before. This actually is a favorable move for bulls since the trend is getting intense by every successful retest and the price is expected to flare up once the range gets broken. This sums up the technical part, coming to fundamentals the concerning factors continues to persist with pandemic not shying away from scaling up (turning into 2nd wave) and geopolitical tensions remaining escalated, it still doesn’t offer any kind of respite acting as a positive catalyst for gold. Price remains on track for new highs and the pattern target of $2700 plus. Bearishness still fails to entice. On larger terms, Gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1936 for the targets of $1945 and $1963 with a stop loss placed below $1924. Longer term target $1989. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
2