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Gold’s weekly outlook: Sept 07-11Gold remained in consolidation even after the breakout as a fresh wave of profit booking ensued across all asset classes in the last 2 days of the week which can be again termed as flushing of retailer bets since the fall was limited to the retest of previous high/breakout. This agonizing movement of gold which is clearly saddled between the support and resistance does not offer much of composure in either camp as bets are getting restless and indeed once the consolidation gets broken it would lead to a quite large directional move which ideally should be on the upside since its already having a bullish breakout along with fundamental support comprising mainly of a weaker dollar. The Fed Chair Powell again reiterated the easing stance and signaled lower rates till the situation improves which is an unlikely scenario in short – medium term as the damage done/being done by the pandemic is severe and would require substantial amount of time to get economic order back to normal. On the positive side, again the vaccine news is doing rounds with countries claiming to use them for general masses as they seem satisfied by the trial but again none of the said vaccines have got a FDA clearance which makes them an uncertainty. For gold both situations are a win win as uncertainty remains at large in either which should keep the trend intact. To watch next week – ECB meeting and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold had a red week of consolidation but nothing changed on the technical front rather trend got even more confirmed as the supports got tested again. Gold remains in an uptrend with breakouts being revisited only to get more credible as the dollar remains weak and in downtrend which shall be the likely scenario going forward as well since the money printing is in no sight of being paused or stopped. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1945. If this is crossed it can move towards $1963. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1989. 2. Short trades remain baseless except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls had another hostile week as the price moved between the support and the resistance with no clear direction even after having a breakout in the week before. This actually is a favorable move for bulls since the trend is getting intense by every successful retest and the price is expected to flare up once the range gets broken. This sums up the technical part, coming to fundamentals the concerning factors continues to persist with pandemic not shying away from scaling up (turning into 2nd wave) and geopolitical tensions remaining escalated, it still doesn’t offer any kind of respite acting as a positive catalyst for gold. Price remains on track for new highs and the pattern target of $2700 plus. Bearishness still fails to entice. On larger terms, Gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1936 for the targets of $1945 and $1963 with a stop loss placed below $1924. Longer term target $1989. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
2
How High Will MCX Silver Go?By following the symmetrical triangle (ST), we can say that if candles will consecutively crossover the upper line, the silver will hit the following targets: 72460 - 75360 - 77800 - 80000+ According to the ST, the final targets are 86700 to 88000 levels. But if you look at the volume and S RSI indicators, it is planning for a downtrend. And at present, silver is very close to the control price line. Hence, a downtrend may start from this point. A breakdown of control price can initiate a new fall for 70000 - 55785 - 50570 levels. Keep eyes open while it breaks ST upside or downside. It's a key for the smart traders. If you have any questions regarding this article, you can ask without hesitation through the below comment box.
MCX:SILVER1!
by freestocktips
GOLD Monthly chart’s “Rally & Tell”Just to recap again... 1. In early 2013, a “friend” brought me to a gathering, where the charismatic speaker claimed he was told that Gold would be tracking higher than the last high, etc. There was a following who dumped everything and loaded up on Gold then. I never went back because I saw the opposite. Clearly, from the chart, I was not wrong, although I was apparently the only one at that time to be bearish on Gold. Chided and ran over I was... I left Gold alone for a long time. Clearly, this “friend” never came back to speak to me for very obvious reasons. 2. In August 2018, I started tracking Gold closely (having left it aside since the last high in 2013), and this was due to an Enquiries for my opinion by a long time friend who suddenly was keen to accumulate Gold. Since then, I saw a multi-year opportunity and wrote about it in my Gold Odyssey blog chapter until I migrated over to TradingView. The patterns observed since then are drawn here. Namely, a multi-year Cup & Handle. Previous idea posts depict the last two years worth of experience in technicals and in real trades. 3. The projection to Gold at USD2000 was observed since last year, particularly after Trump declared a trade war by imposition of trade tariffs. 4. Gold exceeded the target by almost 5%, particularly in 2020. So where to now? From the monthly chart, few things catch my eye... Firstly, the candlestick pattern of August. With a 5%ish long shadow above the candle, practitioners would read for a following down candle in September. While early into September, price retraced enough to find the first support of 1930(-1950). This area is significant historically as it was the 2011 rejected high. Probabilities stack up against staying above this level, although most of the analysis by others yelp about the support to bounce. Clearly, I am a lot more bearish in this view (similar to 2013) and perhaps I am one of the few seeing this as a possible move towards 1500, possibly to 1400 at the lowest point. Unthinkable. Secondly, the MACD is burnig out in the rate of acceleration, and with a huge range of volatility, it looks to be able to pull back to 1800 with little effort and time, and even to 1500 (white support line). Thirdly, 1800 is a good support for a very bullish case. But the C&H pattern might need a deeper retracement to 1600 or below. Fourth, around the toppish area, the net interest of non-commercials (orange line, lower panel) and Top 8 Traders (yellow line, lower panel), all point to lowered interest, encouraging more downside. Fifth, outside of this chart, the USD is setting up a strong bullish bounce back, having almost waterfalled over the past months. This would definitely put pressure on Gold prices, as well as any USD denominated commodities. Fifth, it appears to be a time of moderation as all other asset classes are reacting, including cryptocurrencies. Lastly, the seasonal cycle is aligned for Gold to rotate lower from now till end of year, possibly extending into February next year. As projected by the handle of the cup. Whichever way Gold is going, there is definitely robust (up) trend, and being aware of the bigger picture helps going forward... as it clearly did over the past two years. IF the Cup & Handle pattern plays out... just imagine the multi year target price upon breakout. 😳😉
COMEX:GC1!
by Auguraltrader
2
Crude does not look sustainable...Yes, still bullish up trending, but honestly, look at the technicals and it’s like crazy... Cannot keep this weak rally up for too much longer. MACD is so bearishly divergent and recent rally is weak Th ebottom panel is the net non-commercial interest and it has been steadily waning as price edge higher. I thought it was going to give way earlier but everything is extending into September. Now I still expect Crude to roll over in September...
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
Gold-ing down...Not something to short, but finally an opportunity to get ready for a second bite of the cherry, if not the last stop to boar the train is coming up... this expected pullback (mentioned before that it can pull back as deep at 1400-1600 technically, despite all rational reasoning) mane deeper than expected. Regardless, it allows an opportunity to look for entry points. Technically, there has been a series of lower highs, albeit a lack of lower lows for now. It is resting at a horizontal support as well as the triangle support. Later next week, with a risk to break out of the triangle, and breakdown below 1910 (also meeting the 55EMA orange line support), it would be clear as daylight that Gold is retracing and not consolidating. Other technicals suggest more downside to follow, for example, the MACD has crossed down in the bear territory. Other correlations include a strong bullish divergence of the USD to put downside pressure on USD denominated commodities like gold and oil (Crude oil gave way first). 1800 is the immediate target over the next two weeks. Watch for it. By the way, the white arrows indicate my last trade entry and exit points. I walk my talk.
COMEX:GC1!
by Auguraltrader
2
Buy The Dip - Trading 101After the hard crash of the stock markets (and cryptocurrency markets) we've seen gold suddenly take a big plunge. Obviously, you remember your trading lessons and you don't panic sell here. Instead, you buy the dip. I marked a yellow area on this chart where I highlight the area I would still feel comfortable buying. If the price goes above $1940 a new uptrend might have started towards $2000 and I would say you missed the train. Make sure to always have proper risk-reward for your trades. Don't buy too far in the middle between support and resistance. I suggest a nice long trade here towards the ~$2000 region with a buy close to support around ~$1920. Good luck! Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trading-Guru
19
Elliott Wave View: Further Correction in Gold Still PossibleGold 1 hour chart below shows that the metal has ended the cycle from August 18 high in wave 1 at 1911.20 low. From there, the metal then bounced higher and ended wave 2 at 1994.06 high. The bounce unfolded as flat Elliott Wave Structure. From wave 1 low, wave ((a)) ended at 1962.18 high. Wave ((b)) then ended at 1902.30 low. The metal then extended higher in wave ((c)), which ended at 1994.06 high. This ended wave 2 in larger degree. Down from wave 2 high, the metal has resumed lower in wave ((i)), which ended at 1921.66 low. The subdivision of wave ((i)) unfolded as 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave Structure. Wave (i) ended at 1955.70 low and the bounce in wave (ii) ended at 1967.45 low. Wave (iii) then ended at 1926.80 low and wave (iv) ended at 1945.94 high. The push lower in wave (v) ended at 1921.66 low. Currently, wave ((ii)) is in progress. While below 1994.06 high, expect bounce in 3,7 or 11 swings to fail for more downside. However, gold needs to break below August 12 low to confirm that next leg lower has started. If that low is broken, then the target to the downside is the 100% extension from August 7 high at 1800 level.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
Gold’s weekly outlook: Aug 31 – Sept 04Gold finally had a green week after a gap of 14 days as U.S Fed reaffirmed its easing monetary policy rather it extended the timeline to few years from the earlier 2022 end. This move by the Fed indicates that the economic revival will be slow and painful as the pandemic is still creating fresh turbulence and will likely continue for sometime as historically seen during the Spanish Flu outbreak. Ample liquidity combined with bullish breakouts certainly makes gold the most desirable option mainly due to its safe haven class in times of uncertainty. Though the money from the dollar is also flowing towards equities pretty strongly as most world indices are hovering near/above all time highs, it might be getting fairly overstretched in terms of valuation and risk-reward and may well demand a pullback for further followup which again will be bullish for gold prices. The stage is set for gold to make a commendable move once again. To watch next week – Important economic data. On the chart – Gold posted its first weekly gains after the massive fall mainly on back of a lower dollar continuity which was confirmed by the Fed last week. The yellow metal at last broke out of the triangle consolidation which it was in for last 15 trading sessions signalling a fresh leg of upmove which should now test new highs. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1989. If this is crossed it can move towards $2008. And if this is taken out it can rally to $2033. 2. Short bets again go in limbo after the fresh bullish breakout except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls finally made a green bar as dollar continued to decline breaking out of the triangle consolidation. This breakout opens up a new wave of uptrend allowing the metal another run towards its pattern target of $2700 plus which can be deemed quite optimistic in short run but nonetheless it is the breakout target which should be achieved in mid-long term. Factors supporting higher gold prices remain ultra supportive as pandemic continues to wreck havoc on global economies and geopolitical tensions remain elevated with no signs of any near term respite. Technicals have turned super bullish after the breakout with price expected to test new highs. Bearishness remains unmindful after the breakout. On larger terms, Gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1970 for the targets of $1989 and $2008 with a stop loss placed below $1955. Longer term target $2033. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
7
Last Thoughts Before The Weekend - Gold's Most Important LevelsThe weekend is coming and in this analysis I wanted to share with you my final thoughts before the market closes. For GOLD it will be very important to keep an eye on the resistance I marked in yellow. This is an area that brought lots of resistance over the last week. Every time the price hit this level, the bulls were quickly chased away by the bears. Right now the price is at this level again. When the price is close to a resistance zone, two things can happen. It can bounce back to lower levels such as a support zone, or it can break through and spike upwards with high volatility. This happened already one time during a false breakout at the 27th of August. In general, I find it not a good moment to buy your way into gold. The price is in the middle of the channel between the major support and resistance and therefore have bad risk reward going either direction. I will be keeping an eye on this smaller yellow resistance, and depending on what happens a direction might show itself. For an explanation about the other levels, see my previous idea here Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Trading-Guru
5
Gold’s weekly outlook: Aug 24-28Gold made another $100 plus candle on back of a falling dollar nestled between the support and the resistance with actual movement being less than $5. Once again price movement reiterated the trend as the support remained firm with buying emerging at every dip. One can point out the rejection of $2000 but again it can be treated as flushing out retail longs before going higher which is often the case in every asset class. Coming to fundamentals, the globe remains challenged by the pandemic which maybe formally entering into 2nd wave as many countries are overwhelmed by a spike in fresh cases while geopolitical risks continue to weigh on the economies. On the positive side a new method of cure might be in place soon as early vaccine hopes remains dashed. Net net the scenario remains as it is rather its worsening which should augur well for gold. To watch next week – Jackson Hole Symposium and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold made an inside pin bar candle which suggests the low might be in and uptrend should restart once the high (of pin bar candle) is taken out. In another viewpoint it is in consolidation/flag which again will prove into a directive move once it breaks. With support being held in all the falls it is quite likely the breakout would happen on the upside as it is fundamentally supported as well. Also the inverse head and shoulders breakout remains respected adding to the bullish imprint. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1963. If this is crossed it can move towards $1989. And if this is taken out it can rally to $2008. 2. Short bets remain unwanted in such a scenario except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls fired up above $2000 after a five day gap but were unable to sustain as the price corrected back towards the support on back of a retracing dollar. The move may look ugly but its pleasantly bullish as the candle formed suggests a reversal and a near term bottom formation. The main factor moving the prices higher is the ample liquidity and its aftermath which should remain consistent till the end of 2022 or until the Fed takes a u-turn on its easing policy. As mentioned above the uncertainty surrounding global growth due to the pandemic remains a worrying factor along with the cross border tensions which should keep gold fundamentally lifted while technicals remain strongly supportive of higher prices with $2700 plus being a mid – longer term outlook. Bearishness continues to remain out of context. On larger terms, Gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1945 for the targets of $1963 and $1989 with a stop loss placed below $1932. Longer term target $2008. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
2
Soybean Meal Making A Bearish Flat - Elliott waveHello traders, Soybean meal made a five-wave decline, down from 336.4 level, which is a strong indicator that bears are taking charge in the near-term. We can see a completed five-wave move at the end of May, when price started again recovering, however only for a three legged move. We believe a flat pattern is unfolding within a higher degree wave II now, because legs A and B have three sub-waves, and latest recovery, labelled as leg C is sharp and straight, in impulsive fashion. Ideally, wave C of II will recover towards the Fib. ratio of 50.0 and 61.8 (310/312 level), where resistance will be seen, and a bigger, bearish reversal will resume its path. Trade well, The EW-forecast team
CBOT:ZM1!
by ew-forecast
1