WTI Crude Oil Trading Strategy for this weekWTI Crude oil following the support trendline and dynamic resistance. At present, it's in an uptrend for short-term investors. According to this chart, the last descending triangle pattern is the broken upper side.
Still, we cannot trust this breakout because of excess at the support line. Buy position can initiate at 43 for 43.4 - 44 targets.
If WTI comes below descending resistance or at the red circle area, jump for 42 - 41.6 levels as a target.
Note: keep your eyes open at the uptrend channel.
I have updated a report on Gold on Sunday. Wherein I listed a few events/inventories that can affect to Bullion & Energy sector commodities. You must read that.
Commodity
Gold’s weekly outlook: Aug 17-21Gold had a huge week with a candle of over 180 points where it saw one of the biggest intraday fall lately all getting accounted for the overbought state of the metal since fundamentals didn’t change a bit nor did the dollar see a reversal in trend. This move, probably a historical one was largely a technical pullback/retest of previous highs as things were getting far too overstretched for any kind of risk reward to fit in nicely. Post the retest which was highly anticipated though not so swiftly the trend just gets stronger than ever as global situations remain murky since pandemic continues to wreck havoc and geopolitical tensions remain simmering. The week’s move may have irked a lot of bears as their hopes for a trend reversal were dashed at the similar speed at which they were cultivated. To watch next week – FOMC meeting minutes, earnings and other important economic data.
On the chart –
Gold saw one of the swiftest and biggest intraday fall in recent times without much/none fundamental backing. The intensity of the move was such that interim supports were melting like a hot knife through butter but the agony was short lived as the price catapulted back after testing previous high which was always the expected scenario. This fall was definitely on cards as technicals were posing a corrective pattern but the ferocity and depth was a surprise which may have taken out most of the retail longs. Amidst all the gloom, a bullish pattern of inverse head and shoulders breakout likely got confirmed reaffirming the trend. We have 2 scenarios –
1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1963. If this is crossed it can move towards $1989. And if this is taken out it can rally to $2008.
2. Short bets still remain neglected except scalp trades.
Bullish view – Bulls took a breather after 9 straight weeks of gains as the price corrected from highs mostly due to technical reasons. Overall the negativity was indeed a positive for the bulls as their tenacity got retested and the price resumed its upward journey. Not only the previous highs but the neckline of inverse head and shoulders was also retested pointing towards a sustained bull run as global tensions remain in similar state which they were a week back rather it is getting worse only. Fundamentals and technicals remain strongly in favor of higher prices with $2300 plus now seeming an attainable target in short-medium term.
Bearish bets were hooked in for a short while but failed to capitalize.
On larger terms, Gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher.
Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1945 for the targets of $1963 and $1989 with a stop loss placed below $1932. Longer term target $2008.
Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets.
Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
Usoil Looks ready to move to upside.!!! Buy setupHello Guys, This is a quick break down of the pair and my perspective on the market, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, what you would like to learn from me, or anything of value that you wanna share,All entry will be based on multiple confirmation as stated on the videos, I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist & use proper risk management.
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this was last week similar outlook still to upside i recommend watching it
Gold’s weekly outlook: Aug 10-14Gold scooted past $2000 in another large ranged week as dollar continued its downtrend. Another milestone in matter of 3 weeks simply puts across a stern message regarding the trend and its follow through, this parabolic move does indicate a lot towards FOMO rally but again the precious metals basket got an overall lift when silver mobilized real hard suggesting the move is more of actual than a traditional retailer trap. When stimulus talks hit a bottleneck, a major cause of pullback last week, President Trump signed an executive order in the weekend providing much needed relief which again should set the course back to a lower dollar and higher gold as globally things remain equally murky as it was rather the pandemic still grows which should keep the QE pursuant till 2022. On the brighter side, a possible vaccine might be launched in the coming days by Russia whose authenticity is yet not confirmed fully again causing a flutter of uncertainty. In the current scenario, its the liquidity which is driving up all the asset classes excepting dollar which should continue further until free money flow is stemmed. To watch next week – Earnings and other important economic data.
On the chart –
Gold hurried over $2000 as shorts continued to get punished partly due to immense liquidity and party cause of technical push. Its getting more and more stretched on the upside but still this overbought state is not acting as much of a roadblock for further gains since charts can stay in such a condition if situations persist/demands which is the actual reality at the moment. With more stimulus, this is not looking like stopping anytime soon until an exhaustion limit is reached. Technicals remain favorable as its creating fresh highs and new closing ones as well moreover every week with no reversal pattern in sight. We have 2 scenarios –
1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $2061. If this is crossed it can move towards $2090. And if this is taken out it can rally to $2109.
2. Short bets still remain an ill fated option except scalp trades.
Bullish view – Bulls achieved another milestone as they conquered $2000 for the first time on back of a lower dollar and ample liquidity. This straight $230 point rally in span of 3 weeks does showcase the prowess of the bulls as they were unforgiving to any shorting opportunity rather the recurring shorts fueled the upmove. There was a slight hiccup at the end of last week where the metal pulled back quite sharply from highs (maybe due to week ending adjustment) as stimulus talks hit a roadblock, but all seems well now post signing of an executive order in the weekend by President Trump to keep the stimulus going which should put back gold into its ascending course as likely the dollar will get another blow. Other than this, ongoing concerns remain elevated as pandemic continues to rattle the economies while geopolitical tensions fail to ease. With the above considerations its highly likely for gold to reach $2300 and maybe even higher before a major correction sets in.
Bearishness still remains off grid.
On larger terms, Gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher.
Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $2045 for the targets of $2061 and $2090 with a stop loss placed below $2030. Longer term target $2109.
Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets.
Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
US Coffee futures ( KC1!) - stay short for C wave US Coffee futures ( KC1!) has completed ABC zigzag up side where C wave was extended impulse.
It dropped in wave A in 15 min time frame, so get in to sell trade in B wave near 124.25, with stops above invalidation level above 127.50 for target of C wave down up to 116.50, which is the 4th wave zone of internal wave of C previous wave of Up cycle.
US Wheat futures ( ZW1!) - Stay Long - Simple zigzag patternUS Wheat futures ( ZW1!) is in ABC zigzag in 4 hr chart from last major low as shown on the chart. It has completed impulse wave A and B wave as complex wxy correction, where w and y both are zigzag in nature. B wave is now over. So C wave will be the next big up move expected, which is an easy swing trade as per Elliott wave set up.
Wait for confirmatory impulse in 10 min time frame for reference and deciding stops loss as low to get in to trade for C wave. Once you get in to trade then stay in to trade till the price crosses the high of wave A.
USDCAD - LongI see a couple reasons for this long, firstly: OIL. I see it dropping adding to the CAD weakness.
-USD index showing a little strength.
-I called this trade is my private group last week, my entry is shown here.
-A technical double bottom?
-Bullish flag
-Gorgeous long lower wicks on the last 8
hours of trading.
Gold’s weekly outlook: Aug 03-07Gold continued its relentless rally as it gained $74 for the week not allowing even a single negative tick. The close above $1900 made the handsome gains pretty obvious as once the all time high is crossed its certainly no looking back unless there is a dramatic turnaround, not only it created another closing high but now the support moves a notch higher near the previous high of $1920 which was retested in the week itself. A lower dollar remains the ultimate mover of gold prices currently above everything which is expected to further slide as the lasting QE support by Fed was reaffirmed in the meeting held on Wednesday. On the fundamental front, the pandemic continues to wreck havoc as it enters into 2nd wave for many countries pressuring them to rethink the reopening stance while global political drama remains loyal to providing its share of volatility. With the year’s most awaited and the biggest event – U.S elections coming nearer, orchestrated theater of sentiment manipulation gains momentum. To watch next week – BoE meeting, earnings and other important economic data.
On the chart –
Gold blazed past its all time high as the dollar picked up more steam on the downside literally having a melt down. Chart looks really encouraging even as its highly overbought since the retest of previous high was successful creating a major support and a best possible area (risk-reward wise) to initiate fresh longs in future until the structure changes. With probably every asset class in a buy mode except dollar due to ample liquidity its ideal for the gold prices to keep pacing ahead as its demand as safe haven and a requisite for banks/governments only continues to grow. We have 2 scenarios –
1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1989. If this is crossed it can move towards $2008. And if this is taken out it can rally to $2033.
2. Short bets remain mute in current scenario except scalp trades.
Bullish view – Bulls not only reclaimed the previous high but overpowered it with ease creating a fresh all time high negating any reversal scenario which was the only scare they had until last week on back of a fractured dollar. Nothing but the sharp fall in dollar helped swell the prices above the previous high opening up a new territory and this shall continue as the dollar remains in downtrend given its breakdown. Whilst the above move took away much attention from global scene, nothing has changed there either as the raging pandemic remains the catalyst for de-growth along with geopolitical issues old and new creating its menace. Fundamentals and technicals both strongly support higher gold prices with $2300 looking a reachable target in near to medium term.
Bearishness remains off the table.
On larger terms, Gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher.
Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1989 for the targets of $2008 and $2033 with a stop loss placed below $1974. Longer term target $2061.
Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets.
Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
Usoil Looking bullish Nice momentum for Buying setup!!Hello Guys, This is a quick break down of the pair and my perspective on the market, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, what you would like to learn from me, or anything of value that you wanna share,All entry will be based on multiple confirmation as stated on the videos, I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist & use proper risk management.
Follow me for more updates here!!
Gold’s weekly outlook: July 27-31Gold hatched above $1900 (weekly closing) on back of an unforgiving $100 rally from the lows as dollar continued to devalue. This parabolic move resembles a classic FOMO rally but it doesn’t seem to be exhausting anytime soon since there are still good amount of shorts in the system which if covered can keep the pace of increase intact. Geopolitical and economic situations remain as it is with pandemic continuing to haunt the revival. Week after week vaccine news keeps on getting intense but still its far from being a reality though many are in final testing phases. Economic data which was encouraging all the while post March did finally showcase a form of disappointment adding to the woes. Fundamentals remain ever so supportive with technicals pushing into a fresh level of bullishness post an all time high close. To watch next week – Federal reserve policy meeting, earnings and other important economic data.
On the chart –
Gold made a new all time high close (weekly) above $1900 fueled by a weakened dollar and a fresh bout of buying/short covering. This close certainly offers more room on the upside neglecting the overbought condition of the indicators as they can remain in that state for an extended time. But this optimism also has a shaded view which remains the dreaded double top but the weekly closing has likely ruled that out completely unless gap down brings it back in the picture. Above the all time high its uncharted waters with moves becoming slightly difficult to map but gold remains a strong buy as the trajectory of dollar and the yellow metal remains inverse of each other. We have 2 scenarios –
1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1921. If this is crossed it can move towards $1945. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1963.
2. Short bets remain at bay post such a close except scalp trades.
Bullish view – Bulls had a huge green week after a gap of 4 months conquering $1900 on back of a lower dollar. Bulls managed to close the week above $1900 for the first time which not only suggests a prolonged run but all together a shift in the range. The area of $1876-$1884 now becomes an important support zone. Multiple factors still side with the bulls even as indicators show overbought, the global turmoil remains at highs with economies still facing fresh shocks from the pandemic while geopolitical concerns continue to overpower any positivity from fundamental aspect. All in all, the demand for the yellow metal remains elevated even at such high price owing to the safe haven aspect and technical advancement.
Bears remain cornered post such a bullish close.
On larger terms, Gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher.
Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1907 for the targets of $1921 and $1945 with a stop loss placed below $1896. Longer term target $1963.
Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets.
Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
PALLADIUM - Analysis.Over 50% of PALLADIUM supply (and its congener, PLATINUM) is used in catalytic converters,
These convert up to 90% of the harmful gases in automobile exhaust (hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide & nitrogen dioxide) into less harmful substances such as:
nitrogen, carbon dioxide and water vapor.
Helpful information about PALLADIUM vs PLATINUM in the car manufacturer market:
seekingalpha.com
As a primary metal for the automobile industry, particularly in the USA - I believe it's accurate,
To say that PALLADIUM is providing a historical evaluation of economical progress in the United States.
The main methods of transport (Cars, Trucks, Tractors, etc.) are huge driving forces behind active commerce.
Manipulated markets (E.G. Dow Jones, S&P500) do NOT provide correct valuations regarding economical progress,
To my knowledge, PALLADIUM adjusted to natural fluctuations as they should appear (without FED interference).
Based on bearish sentiment, I expect PALLADIUM to drop to $1,100 & below (alongside #DJI),
This is roughly 50% from its previous fibonacci support level as shown in the chart above.
Upon further decline, our estimates for opportunities can be more precisely measured:
i.pinimg.com
Bull Trap has been displayed - Entering return to "normal" phase:
static.seekingalpha.com
Strong Bearish Reversal for GOLDGOLD is approaching a possible Strong Bearish Reversal. GOLD is inside of a Strong Resistance Zone/Double Top and RSI/Bollinger Bands are indicating an Over Bought Market. Using Fibonacci Retracement, I would place a take profit between the "Golden Zone" (0.50 and 0.618), then I would place Stop Loss right above the previous Resistance Zone.
What do you think about my idea? Do you agree or disagree? Let me know in the comments!
Much love,
- ALPHALICIOUS
DISCLAIMER: I am NOT responsible for any trades that you execute. PLEASE use proper RISK MANAGEMENT as markets such as GOLD can be extremely volatile!
Commodity Reaserch Bureau (CRB) IndexExpected increase in price of commodities for this year.
Remember that in this index, each asset has different a weight and includes 19 commodities. According to Investopedia:
39% allocated to energy contracts
41% to agriculture
7% to precious metals
13% to industrial metals
Related indices:
SPGSCI: S&P Goldman & Sachs Commodity Index
BCOM: Bloomberg Commodity Index
Gold’s weekly outlook: July 20-24Gold ultimately closed (weekly) above $1800 broadly on account of an ever increasing safe haven demand due to persisting fears regarding global growth and a falling dollar. Coronavirus pandemic still remains the biggest cause of worry as it has led/leading to sizeable and unforeseen economic disruptions across the globe, even as few countries are trying to ease restrictions earlier imposed it is not helping much because on other hand the deeply affected ones are close to reimposing lockdowns again due to uncontrollable increase in infections. Mixed news regarding vaccine ain’t providing much relief either as it is actually creating more anxiety and confusion. Although recent economic data released is not showing the depth of pain this pandemic has cause, it might be thoughtful to assume that the worst is probably priced in which remains the only heartening factor if at all it is true. For gold, a close above $1800 is suffice to path the future trajectory irrelative of the fundamentals and the technicals though both strongly favor higher prices. To watch next week – Earnings season and other important economic data.
On the chart –
Gold at last closed above the psychological $1800 marking a fresh territorial advancement. This fresh 52 week high closing (weekly) certainly charts out the parabolic move ahead discarding all bearish scenarios. The price is trapped in a band which is likely to break on the upside, a possible gap up might be the initiator for the next move ahead. We have 2 scenarios –
1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1823. If this is crossed it can move towards $1839. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1857.
2. Bearish bets remain out of context after such a close.
Bullish view – Bulls comfortably reclaimed $1800 after nearly 9 years which itself is a big ordeal. This close opens up the next leg of upmove which should take the metal to all time highs and possibly even higher as global recovery would remain sluggish until the virus slows down. With $1815 posing a stiff resistance, it could be taken out with a gap up which would trap the meanest of the shorts prompting a ferocious short covering rally. Fundamentals and technicals remain supremely supportive with metal expected to create fresh highs.
The close itself is sufficient to suggest what remains in the offing for bears.
On larger terms, Gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher.
Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1815 for the targets of $1823 and $1839 with a stop loss placed below $1804. Longer term target $1857.
Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets.
Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.