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Gold’s weekly outlook: July 13-17Gold finally managed to break past $1800 after a gap of 8 years and 8 months mainly due to increased safe haven demand in a suffocating global situation caused by the raging pandemic which is only getting worse. Geopolitical tensions remain an ongoing concern as the Trade Deal between the U.S and China remains in limbo since the U.S President decided not to go forward with the phase 2 part of the deal. Hopes of vaccine if any continues to remain bleak further adding to the woes. Still, the “denial” remains at large with riskier asset class extending their uptrend and with earnings season on door, it may help paint a better picture about the economy answering much awaited questions regarding the ongoing disparity between the reality and euphoria. Fundamentals and technicals remains strongly in favor of bulls after last week’s closing. To watch next week – Earnings season and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold extended its uptrend above $1800 after a gap of nearly 9 years hitting fresh 52 week highs for closing as well though it failed to have a close above $1800. The psychological number “$1800” was taken out as the metal rose well above but likely a tide of profit booking held it back below during the end of the week. Still gold remains overly bullish with the weekly candle indicating that it has taken out the historical resistance area and is ready to move higher towards the all time highs and maybe higher. We have 2 scenarios- 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1804. If this is crossed it can move towards $1823. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1839. 2. Bearish bets remain neglected as the support holds except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls finally triumphed over $1800 after a long gap as increased fear drove safe haven demand but they failed to close above it. Still, the closing is extremely bullish as historical resistance seems to have been taken out with a certain amount of ease. Also aiding the bulls is a falling dollar which should continue its downtrend as unlimited QE could result in devaluation. All factors in play remain where they were rather the outlook grows only grimmer on account of increased cases and fatalities and dashed hopes of an early vaccine cementing the bullish case. For bulls to continue their march they need to hold the supports while aiming for new highs. Bears failed to keep the trend in their favor making their bets unproductive unless the inverse head and shoulders pattern gets triggered. On larger terms, Gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1804 for the targets of $1823 and $1839 with a stop loss placed below $1794. Longer term target $1857. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
3
Crude to burn...Crude, having recovered from negative prices, and rallying to 40ish, is not seen to be at clear and present risk of turning over to drop and burn. Recent price action formed an ascending triangle, and the last week of trading sessions were relatively flat. This lack of commitment and momentum is starting to look suspicious. The MACD has a bearish divergence waiting to equilibrate. Potential price breakdown below 39.50 is reminisce of a bear trend forming. Currently, warning signs show of a potential breakdown. 34.50 would be the support if scenario plays out.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Gold’s weekly outlook: July 06-10Another 52 week closing high (weekly) for gold as pandemic continues to roil the globe with infections surging to record highs in various countries. The onslaught caused by the coronavirus still fails to truly show in the economy as the recent data suggests a miraculous turnaround from the lows that too at a never seen before pace whose gap from reality is just increasing where furloughs / jobcuts, closures and bankruptcies have become a fairly common sight. This mirage or denial mode points toward another forthcoming riskier asset class correction when the quarter numbers start trickling in or the worst might have been actually over but all depends over the thin line of statistics. All in all the pessimistic clouds have been shrouded by the free money euphoria which to a large extent could be just an election gig and reality should bite hard once the event is over. $1800 looks closer than ever as both fundamentals and technicals strongly favors higher prices. To watch next week – Inflation and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold continued its rally as it created another 52 week high on back of gloomier economic outlook and a falling dollar. The closing high suggests that there is still more scope on the upside with other global factors already buoying the price in full force. Chances are there that gold might find its true resistance near $1800 area as seen historically but its all the more bullish if it does and aims for inverse head and shoulders pattern which if charted through will catapult gold prices into another range. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1789. If this is crossed it can move towards $1804. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1823. 2. Short trades still remain colorless as trend remains overly bullish except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls registered another high both 52 week and closing as the rush for safe haven continues amidst chaos and uncertainty caused by the pandemic. Fundamentals should remain in favor of bulls for a good amount of time till the virus weakens and things start getting back to normalcy but technically gold nears a crucial resistance zone which if taken out will propel it at an even higher pace. For bulls to keep on the unopposed run they need to take out the critical levels and hold the supports. Bearish bets still remain out of context. On larger terms, Gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1780 for the targets of $1789 and $1804 with a stop loss placed below $1771. Longer term target $1823. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
11
Gold’s weekly outlook: June 29 – July 03Gold extended its bull run hitting a fresh 52 week high broadly on account of deepening global crisis due to the persistent wrath of the pandemic. The economic outlook gets grimmer day by day as number of infections are surging pretty fast forcing the countries to put a screeching halt to their phased re-openings (of economies). Moreover, the race for vaccine is not look as promising either which is ultimately proving that viruses yet cannot have any sort of vaccines or a singular approach of treatment. While most of the riskier asset classes are in a denial mode, reality for sure has started biting from different angles as their demand is getting sluggish compared to safe havens. Current situation looks ripe for a burst over $1800 as the technical headwind is simply too strong on the upside. To watch next week – Powell and Mnuchin testimonies, Fed meeting minutes and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold registered a new 52 week high whilst having a close at another. This fresh upmove suggests the consolidation has been successfully broken on the upside triggering another leg of sustained run which would this time conquer the much awaited “$1800”. Fundamentals remain strongly supportive for higher prices while technicals point towards an uninterrupted run on the upside. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1771. If this is crossed it can move towards $1789. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1804 and 1823. 2. Short trades seems to have filtered out again excepting scalp trades unless the trend changes. Bullish view – Bulls advanced further making a new high as well as closing at another rather closing above its previous 52 week high making a strong case for prolonged uptrend. The ongoing concerns remain ignited firming gold’s already high demand. Fundamentals continue remain in favor of gold while technicals got even stronger after the breakout from the consolidation making $1800 look closer than ever. Bears look defeated again after they failed to stop the breakout. On larger terms, Gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1771 for the targets of $1789 and $1804 with a stop loss placed below $1761. Longer term target $1823. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
6
USOIL 🎯 The Insider's Guide to OilBias: 🔞Just a brief overview of Oil with two potential outcomes, the bullish being much more optimistic so be cautious bulls. note* This is a new "quick and dirty" formating style that contains only the bare minimum context needed to give us the ability to push out some quick outlooks that don't require as much in-depth research and evaluation such as what you see on a regular basis from us. Let us know what you think in the comments about this approach if you have any feedback :) Hit that 👍 button to show support for the content! Help the community grow by giving us a follow 🐣 ----- Support: S1: This is a not as obvious as S2 but still quite clear when highlighted as to be a price pivot point. It currently contains an S/R flip that has yet to be invalidated. S2: Very recognizable price pivot point and likely to come into play if we do retest the bottom range of Oils current up-trending price action. Though I would caution anyone trying to catch a falling knife here and much rather say this is a level of interest to keep your eye on for how price reacts here. Resistance: R1: Bearish S/R flip that is likely to see a reaction from the price on the way back up to retreat the point of break down. R2: Dead cat bounce swing high, this will be a noticeable level of interest for any bears looking to short this resting orderblock. R3: Orderblocks resting at the prior swing high range, a pretty clear range of interest for the bears. ----- ✨ Drop a comment asking for an update, we do NEW setups every day! ✨
TVC:USOIL
by AlphaBotSystem
Gold’s weekly outlook: June 22-26Gold moved higher finally making a new closing high in weekly timeframe amidst the ongoing chaos worldwide. Situations globally are refusing to die down rather fresh concerns keep popping up adding to the already long list of woes. Fresh surge in new cases along with few countries facing 2nd wave of infections have again stoked growth fears as the worst affected are reconsidering lockdowns again. Economic data continues to signal unabated pain in the system while a lower dollar suggests faith in a quick turnaround is waning pretty fast. Without any vaccine in sight, fundamentals look really scary throwing light on “the end of the world” prophecies. Technically gold is in a sweet spot after closing at new highs. To watch next week – Important economic data. On the chart – Gold continued its uptrend managing a new closing high as well as bouncing back from lows/supports suggesting the overall trend. Fundamentals continue to provide increased support to the prices as none of the tensions/issues looks to be resolved anytime soon while technicals strongly present a fresh move on the upside post last week’s closing. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1755. If this is crossed it can move towards $1771. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1789. 2. Short trades remain a failing bet as gold dwells strongly in bullish grip except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls finally made a new closing high (weekly) as they continued to advance on a lower dollar and worsening economic outlook. The rebound from the lows indicate “buy on dips” probably remains the best trade out there until a major support gets breached. Fundamentals are firmly in favor of higher prices, while technicals look even more bullish after a new closing high, all in all $1800 plus looks a near reality. Bearish bets remain wrecked as new closing high makes it super bullish. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1745 for the targets of $1755 and $1771 with a stop loss placed below $1733. Longer term target $1789. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
2
Gold’s weekly outlook: June 15-19Gold reversed all the last week’s loss as it formed a large green candle closing rather too comfortably over $1700 on account of fears regarding 2nd wave of infections and a very slow path of economic recovery. This was bound to happen as the gap between reality and euphoria was outstretched forcing some sanity back into the financial markets as the riskier asset classes took a hit while the risk free gained back lost ground. It does seem the fear of 2nd wave of infections are getting real as China is seeing a rise in fresh cases prompting it for a partial lockdown again which should definitely show up in the economy. Its not only China as Japan and the U.S are also seeing fresh surge in cases. Situations around the globe are just getting worse with the pandemic at full force and continuing geopolitical tensions pointing towards a long fight ahead for economic survival. To watch next week – Powell’s testimony and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold zoomed back above $1700 after a week’s blip as fears of a 2nd wave of infections took the center stage. The green bar created totally negated the big red candle adding to the bullish bias. Fundamentals turned in favor of bulls again while technically the bounce from the support area suggests a likely bottom. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1740. If this is crossed it can move towards $1755. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1771. 2. Short trades look bleak again as the metal closed above the support except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls came roaring back as they reconquered $1700 convincingly as well as negated the full red bar created last week cautioning over shorting the yellow metal at dire times like the current situation. The bounce back from the support was fueled by growing fears over an imminent 2nd wave of infections which can rout the economic recovery forcing the world into a lockdown again. Passing of days are just aggravating the economic fallout as vaccines under development have no certainty while the pandemic continues to grow which is expected to affect 60-80% of the population worldwide before it ends. As mentioned earlier these provide a great recipe for gold to keep hitting highs in days ahead as it remains the only asset class with no negative impact from the virus. Bearishness remains negligible as the bullishness prevails. On larger terms, Gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1740 for the targets of $1755 and $1771 with a stop loss placed below $1729. Longer term target $1789. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
EW Analysis: COCOA May Remain SidewaysCOCOA is sideways for the last 10 years and seems like it will stay like that. Hello traders! Today we will talk about Cocoa and its price action from Elliott Wave perspective. Well, looking at the longer-term weekly chart, we can see Cocoa moving sideways for the last 10 years in the 3700 – 1700 range, ideally within a bigger bearish triangle pattern in wave »B« before we may see even more weakness into a wave C towards 1000 level. But, it is not ready yet, because sub-wave (E) is still missing, so we will probably see a recovery at the end of the year or in 2021 before a bigger sell-off. As you can see, in the shorter-term daily chart, we are currently tracking a three-wave A-B-C decline within wave (D) that can send the price down to the lower triangle line and 2000 – 1800 area. The only question is, either is sub-wave B already finished or will we see a retest of 2500 – 2700 resistance area before a decline into wave C to complete a higher degree wave (D). All being said, be aware of more weakness for Cocoa this year, but downside can be limited, so at the end of 2020 or at the beginning of 2021 we may see another, bigger recovery for the final wave (E). Trade well!
ICEUS:CC1!
by ew-forecast