Crude Oil: Ongoing Elliott Wave Corrective Drop Can Be DeeperCrude oil has been on the rise over the last view weeks, which is the main reason why inflation is still the main global problem, so we have seen some positive correlation between dollar and crude as speculators believe that rates will stay here higher for longer. Well, what’s interesting now is that after that after a lot of crude oil bull calls for 100 dollar and higher, the energy is turning south. Looking at the current intraday drop, we can see some sharp move down now, it looks like an ongoing intraday impulse with room for more weakness after Crude inventory data shows decline of 2.2 million barrels last week. From an Elliott wave perspective that’s going impulse for wave A, so more weakness can be seen after subwave iv rally, or even after wave B bounce. Resistance is at 86.75 and 88.30.
In fact, lower energy can also mean that inflation can slow down, and this can then at some point puts limited upside for the USD and yields.
Grega
Commodity
Gold - We Want our Safe Haven Back ❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
XAUUSD has been overall bearish trading inside the falling channel in blue, and it is currently approaching the lower bound of the channel.
Moreover, the zone 1800.0 is a strong support, demand and round number.
🏹 So the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for trend-following buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower red trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
As per my trading style:
As XAUUSD approaches the lower blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
#Aluminium - Could reach $2500 and $2700Hi guys! 👋🏻
🔔 There's no clean energy without Aliminium, which is widely used in electric vehicle and solar panels production
🔔 One of the largest consumers of Aluminium - China is expected to increase the demand for the metal in its e-vehicle, clean energy and airplane production.
🔔 Other fundamentals which support higher demand for metals are: global ecnomies raise their expenses on military, renewing their military equipment.
🔔 Aluminium daily chart
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US Oil Approaches $90 Amidst Supply Scare and Cooling DemandIntroduction:
The oil market is heating up, and there's an exciting opportunity knocking at our doors. Brace yourselves as we delve into the recent surge in US oil prices, which have approached the $90 mark due to a scare in supply and cooling demand. In this article, we will explore the factors driving this upward trajectory and present a compelling call-to-action for those ready to seize this golden opportunity and long oil!
The Supply Scare:
In recent months, the global oil market has been grappling with a series of supply disruptions, sending shockwaves through the industry. From hurricanes disrupting offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico to geopolitical tensions impacting major oil-producing regions, the supply scare has created a perfect storm for oil prices to skyrocket. As traders, we understand the significance of such disruptions and the potential for them to create lucrative opportunities.
Cooling Demand:
Simultaneously, we have witnessed a cooling in demand, primarily driven by concerns over the resurgence of COVID-19 and its impact on global economic recovery. Travel restrictions, reduced industrial activity, and shifting consumer behavior have all contributed to a temporary dip in oil demand. However, as the world adapts to the new normal and economies gradually reopen, the demand for oil is expected to rebound, further fueling the potential for significant returns.
The Perfect Storm for Traders:
The convergence of supply disruptions and cooling demand has created an ideal environment for traders to capitalize on the oil market's upward momentum. With US oil prices inching closer to the $90 mark, there's an undeniable opportunity to long oil and ride the wave of potential profits.
Call-to-Action: Long Oil Now!
Fellow traders, it's time to seize the moment and embrace the exciting prospects that lie ahead. Here's a compelling call-to-action to encourage you to long oil:
Conduct Thorough Research: Dive deep into the current market dynamics, examining supply trends, geopolitical factors, and demand projections. This will enable you to make informed decisions and identify the best entry points for long positions.
Diversify Your Portfolio: Consider incorporating oil-related assets into your trading portfolio to leverage the potential upside. Options such as oil futures, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), or even energy sector stocks can provide exposure to the oil market's upward movement.
Set Realistic Targets and Manage Risk: Establish clear profit targets and implement risk management strategies to protect your investments. Utilize stop-loss orders, trailing stops, or other risk mitigation tools to ensure you don't get caught off guard by unexpected market fluctuations.
Stay Informed and Adapt: Monitor market news, industry reports, and expert opinions to stay ahead of the curve. The oil market can be volatile, and being proactive in adjusting your positions based on new information is crucial for maximizing returns.
Conclusion:
Traders, the time has come to embrace the exciting opportunity presented by the surge in US oil prices. With supply scares and cooling demand paving the way for potential gains, it's time to long oil and ride the wave of profits. By conducting thorough research, diversifying your portfolio, setting realistic targets, and staying informed, you can position yourself for success in this dynamic market. So, let's seize this moment and make the most of this exciting trading opportunity!
Eurnzd likely more downside, waiting for pullbacks**Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week**
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USOIL on bullish move!So as said in my last view on Oil (WTI) i hit in perfect with the 80~ level.
And so far the last couple of days we have gotten data and such, which made the oil stay in the 80-81 level. Thats fine, we have massive support/resistance here.
But i have a feeling that we will go higher and go for the 90~ level.
this could happen throughout August (start of September).
lets see what happens and what data we are given.
Good luck!
GOLD - Is History Repeating Itself ⁉️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
After rejecting the 2080 resistance, GOLD has been overall bearish trading inside the falling channel in red and it is currently retesting the upper bound / trendline.
Moreover, the zone 1980 is a strong resistance.
🏹 So the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the blue resistance and upper blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal resistance.
As per my trading style:
As GOLD approaches the "3" zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
For the bulls to kick in and invalidate the bearish scenario, we need a break above the blue resistance.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Higher for LongerUS inflation data in July 2023 provided mixed signals. While Consumer Price Index (CPI) is moving in the right direction, producer price inflation suggest pipeline pressures are picking up. Core CPI, which excludes often-volatile food and energy costs, rose only 0.2% for a second month in a row . However, US producer prices picked up in July, owing to increases in certain service categories. This likely buys more time for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to deliberate on the future path of monetary policy.
The flows into bond exchange traded funds (ETFs) have been volatile. Over the past year, investors were starting to embrace duration. Investors were positioned for recession, inflation crash, and Fed cuts - evident from $31.7bn inflows to Treasury bond ETFs on pace for a record year2. However, investors are starting to pull out of the biggest bond ETFs devoted to Treasuries. More than $1.8 billion came out of the $39 billion iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF last week, the most since March 20203. Sentiment toward long-dated Treasuries has soured over the past month amid growing conviction that the Fed will keep interest rates at elevated levels for an extended period. We expect rates to remain higher for longer and are unlikely to see the Fed cut rates until the Q1 of next year amidst a stronger US economy.
Don’t celebrate on disinflation just yet
Overall, the US economy continues to show extraordinary resilience despite monetary constraints and credit tightening. While inflation has shown encouraging signs of decline, we caution that the level remains high. Strong July retail sales raise the risk of a re-acceleration in inflation. The four biggest categories of the ex-auto’s component saw outsized gains: non-store retailers, restaurants & bars, groceries, and general merchandise. Amidst a tight US labour market, with unemployment at historic lows and wages continuing to rise, the downward pricing momentum in the service sector is likely to be at a slower rate. Commodity prices are also beginning to rebound from the weakness seen in Q2 2023. Energy prices have been rising on the back of Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) production cuts. If commodity prices extend their recent momentum, it could pose upside risks to inflation.
Fed Officials remain divided
Messaging on a somewhat mixed inflation outlook from the Fed Officials remains a mixed bag. One faction remains of the view that rates hikes over the past year and a half has done its job while another group contends that pausing too soon could risk inflation re-accelerating. Fed governor’s Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller remain in the hawkish camp, hinting at more rate increases being needed to get inflation on a path down to the 2% target.
Futures markets are assigning about a 11% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike when the Fed next meets on 19 and 20 September4. Additionally, rate cuts have now been completely taken off the table until perhaps later in the Q1 2024. The latest Fed minutes reveal commentary from officials, including the hawks, such as Neel Kashkari, suggest a willingness to pause again in September, but to leave the door open for further hikes at the upcoming meetings5.
Opportunity for a yield seeking investor
It’s been an impressive turnaround since the pandemic when negative real yields became the norm. TINA- ‘There Is No Alternative’ to equities, is over now that evidence of the shift to a 5% world appears stronger than ever. Today investors have the opportunity to lock in one of the highest yields in decades, with US two-year yields paying close to 5% exceeding the yields at longer maturities without the volatility witnessed in the 10-year sector. A resilient US economy is likely to keep interest rates and bond yields higher for longer.
Sources
1 Bureau of Labour Statistics as of 10 July 2023
2 BofA ETF Research, Bloomberg as of 9 August 2022 - 9 August 2023
3 Bloomberg as of 14 August 2023
4 Bloomberg as of 17 August 2023
5 federalreserve.gov as of 16 August 2023
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
GOLD → still bearishhello guys...
as you can see, xauusd is in the descending channel and break out the middle line of the channel and head and shoulders pattern at the same time!
so it is so possible that this one continues a downward movement from here or after a correction.
it shouldn't go upper than the gray area, if this happens then this analysis becomes invalid.
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GOLD → still bearishhello guys...
this commodity made a sharp movement and will make a three-drive pattern.
target 1: 1889
target 2: 1885
target 3: 1881
_______________________________
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If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below, and I will answer them.
And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comment
Upside Range for gold with a midpoint for invalidation of range Pictured is gold from a Daily timeframe perspective
How price is reacting at the bottom of the Weekly range is rather Reversal like and also paying attention to where price is on the DXY - the probability lies in a correction inbound - wether it correct to the mid zone and then continue lower, or if price brakes through we can see price make its way up to 1980 and BEYOND !!!
On the Monthly chart price is also testing last months low region and a clear brake below this if you were to go to the monthly chart would see a further decline to 1800
The remainder of the month is looking interesting .....
Stay tuned
SOYBEAN - IMMINENT SELL OFFSOYBEAN FUTURES - MONTHLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND ANALYSIS
Soybean sold at Monthly Supply Zone -> Destiny: Monthly Demand Zone
I suggest make the following probable trades:
- Sell Soybean until reach Monthly Demand zone
- Buy Soybean from Monthly Demand Zone until Monthly Supply Zone
Natural Gas bullish move!Big move down today!
But! i still believe we have a potential huge upside.
We could go a little lower to a support level around 2.5~
but we should go up over the coming week(s).
I expect a target price around 2.7~ and after that, another move upwards towards 3~.
lets see what happens!
Good luck!
Oil going bullish!So as said in my last view on Oil (WTI) i hit in perfect with the 80~ level.
And so far the last couple of days we have gotten data and such, which made the oil stay in the 80-81 level. Thats fine, we have massive support/resistance here.
But i have a feeling that we will go higher and go for the 90~ level.
this could happen throught August (start of September).
lets see what happens and what data we are given.
Good luck!
GOLD - One More Correction ?Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
As per my last analysis, we were waiting for GOLD to approach the 1935 support to look for buy setups.
🏹 The 1935 is a strong rejection zone because it is the intersection of the blue support and lower red trendline.
📈 For the bulls to take over and start the bullish correction, we need a break above the last major high in gray.
In this case, a movement till the upper red trendline would be expected.
Meanwhile , until the buy is activated, GOLD would be overall bearish and can still trade lower and even break the blue support downward.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
GOLD - Strong Support Ahead 💪Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
GOLD has been overall bearish trading inside the falling broadening wedge in red, and it is currently approaching the lower trendline.
Moreover, the 1935 level is a strong support.
🏹 So the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the blue demand and lower blue trendline.
As per my trading style:
As GOLD is sitting around the purple circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich