USDCHF: Massive downtrend failure screams longThe previous analysis on this pair failed and led to a massive paradigm shift in the markets, which struck me with clarity.
I'll look for long positions in this pair on any chance that I get. The quarterly chart has an uptrend signal that will confirm by year end's close, as long as it's above 0.9324.
There's resistance above, let's see how price reacts to it.
I'll update with my entry once I'm in with sufficient reasons.
If you want live updates and more information, make sure to follow me at collective2, where I provide signals for auto trading and via email for a monthly fee.
I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom free of charge for concordbay.com customers, contact me via skype for more details.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
NZDJPY: Playing catch upNZDJPY seems to be lagging AUDJPY, I'll be taking a short if it slides under today's low.
The resistance to the left is pretty obvious.
Let's see how it goes.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
USDJPY: Neutral, with a bearish biasIn this chart I analyze the price action in USDJPY's weekly chart.
It appears like we have formed a balanced distribution after the lowest low in the recent selloff.
Despite this not-falling situation, rgmov continues to suggest the enviroment is overall bearish, so I'll look into fading exremes in lower timeframes, using CCI and Rgmov signals as confirmation.
Pattern traders might find an abundance of bearish patterns with the PRZ near significant profile levels, like the high and low volume nodes.
It's interesting to note that the 10 period moving averages of the highs and lows are bearish, and that the speed lines drawn using the 0.5 and 0.618 levels, and the highest and lowest price from the top as reference contain the bars in the advance as well.
Hope you find this of use, regards,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
AUDUSD GREAT H4 SHORT POTENTIAL VERY TIGHT STOP GREAT CHANNEL £$Very clean detailed S/R x Fibonacci retrace analysis, 62.8% retracement occurring last 2 candles suggest bullish momentum is dying out!
This trade for me is a channel trade, I use Fibonacci and S/R to add confluence. Please zoom out and examine these areas
The diagonal channel is 3 - 4 months old and very valid and we have seen price already bounce off the top channel 4 times.
Very tight stop any violation of channel suggest full trend reversal.
Commodity channel index overbought currently heading south with break of diagonal bottom
Good luck and happy trading :)
USDCAD: Fundamental shockwaves and bearish setupAnalysis on chart.
We've reached the time at mode uptrend targets, but there's still time left in the 16 bar uptrend.
The news events this week are potentially devastating for the USD longs, so I'll be looking to go short asap depending on the price action around said events.
I'll update once I pull the trigger.
Good luck,
Ivan.
GBPUSD CABLE SHORT LONG TERM BIG DROP COOKING £$Drawn S/R on W1 very strong levels, Fib retrace shows 38.2% reversal occuring CCI Dropping. First target 23.6% - Second 0% - Stop on kumo support but will we test it at all? who knows :)
Delta Air Lines-DAL -Daily -Trend Trading with RgMov & CCITREND TRADING WITH RGMOV AND CCI
1. BUYS = Watch for RgMov to make a 2-month high, then buy CCI readings of -100 followed by trading above, then closing above a previous day's high. Exit at 3 ATR rally or when CCI reaches +100 adding each 1 ATR advance. Stop = 3 ATR's OR if RgMov makes a 2-month low on a closing basis (2 months = 44 days)
2. SELLS = Watch for RgMov to make a 2-month low, then sell CCI readings of +100 followed by trading below, then closing below a previous day's low. Exit at 3 ATR decline OR when CCI reaches -100, adding each 1 ATR decline. Stop = 3 ATR's OR if RgMov makes a 2-month high on a closing basis (2 months = 44 days)
There are plenty of other exit strategies - including using a trailing stop once the CCI has reached the opposite extreme. A simple trailing stop can be over/under the 3-day range.
Tim 1:12PM EST, March 6, 2015
HMNY Bullish on CCI crossupThe CCI crossed above +100 in the last couple of days, and this is a good way to find stocks that are in the beginning of strong moving trends. The CCI has also reached an all time high, extremely bullish, and the price has gapped up over previous highs turning those areas into support.
When the chart is moving fast like this, using the previous highs that are lower than the current price as stops, is a valid way to anticipate trade reversals and lock in gains. If the chart breaks out to new highs above all previous highs, then switch to using previous lows as stops including considering upwards diagonal lines. This is an excellent way to manage and keep trade risk to a minimum while enjoying continued high percent gains.
Placing stops with the price structure that the chart gives you can provide better risk management, than trying to conform all charts generically to an indicator stop or value that is derived from price instead. Support and resistance lines do not change, but indicators do.
USDCAD oversold. Fresh SD level retested.Trend lines hasnt been broken. Fresh SD level is retested. CCI shows oversold. Im expecting the price will go up strongly.
DAX German Stock Index -Daily -"If the log rolls over". SELLDAX potential "smack down" from a 5-day time at mode signal ending on Thursday's close and note that the new 5-breakout-failure where a 5-day consolidation failed to lead to a new buy signal could be a sign of exhaustion up here ... A little drop and a sell signal is triggered (and CCI has crossed under +100 for a 4th time in this rally = typical of a bull market move. A main cause for concern is the "internal strength" of the rally as measured by my proprietary "range movement" indicator is saying this is a "weak rally" with a sub-par 50% retracement... So, I am looking to SELL under The previous 3-day lows and target 9080 minimum. 9291 last...
If we get a range completely above the purple "6" rectangle area, then a new buy signal will register. Cover any shorts and go long.
User Request - Willams %R and CCI BackGround HighlightCM_Willams %R and CCI BackGround Highlight
Created By User Request
Indicator Highlights:
Creates Red BackGround Highlight if CCI Or Williams %R are Above Upper Line (User Defined)
Creates Green BackGround Highlight if CCI Or Williams %R are Below Lower Line (User Defined)
Ability to Turn On/Off either Williams %R or CCI Highlights in Inputs Tab via Check Boxes.
Ability To Set All Parameters for CCI and Williams %R in Inputs Tab.
Ability to Set High/Low “Threshold” Lines for Both CCI and Williams %R in Inputs Tab.
***I was asked if you could plot Back Ground Highlights on Two Individual Indicators AND have it show if BOTH Indicators were Overbought and Oversold.
***The answer is Yes. On the Chart Above I have the same Shade of Red and Green for Both Indicators. However, you will notice when Both Indicators Show OverBought…Both Plot Red Back Ground Highlights Which = a Brighter Red. The same is True for Oversold Conditions. The Green Shows a Brighter Shade of Green.
***VERY IMPORTANT - It is difficult for a programmer to release Indicators with this feature because depending on what color background you use on your charts…THE COLORS LOOK COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. So If You Don’t Use The Black Back Ground Shown Above You Most Likely Will Need To Adjust The Transparency, and Possibly The Colors Themselves!!!!
Indicator and Reference Page In Related Links Below
Misery over for Silver?This isn't a trade set up because I am on the fence with it at the moment, the commodity is at a make or break as it heads towards the $15 support line from 2010; The $15 - $17.50 mark is an important and wildly watched range for the commodity - There may be a bit more of a hit for silver to take over the week or two but using price action I wouldn't be surprised if silver started to make gains over the coming weeks due to the dependence on it for our gadgets as well as the ever growing demand for 'free technology'. If it begins to drops significantly below the $15 mark I would then consider a bearish trade down to the $7.50 support line (more on that if it comes to it !).
London Session Watch EURGBPEUR/GBP has been quite volatile recently which was caused by both the Pound and Euro dollar. There's no obvious trend over the long term horizon but based on the shorter time frame, we do have bullish momentum going on in this market as we can see through the up sloping trend line and Tenken-sen continuing to stay above the Kijun-sen. The current support level is at 0.7977 and the resistance level is at 0.8036. We can also see that there's an inside bar candlestick pattern formed at the 0.8036 key resistance level which could cause the price to have a little pullback before it surges higher. We could potentially have buying opportunities near the trend line and 0.7977 support level in todays London session.
Enhanced CCI V2 - Plot 2 CCI Lines + MoreEnhanced CCI V2 By Request
Added 0 Line, + - 200 lines
Added a line that hi-lights the outside of the CCI
Updated 8/12/2014 by request for christian.david.75457
Added Ability To Plot 2nd CCI - !!!
Added ability to turn On/Off the +-200 lines.
Added Ability to Turn On/Off Show Area of CCI
Added Ability To Turn On/Off Show The Outer CCI Line
USOIL $105 ReversalWith the $105 resistance line tested again towards the end of the week I feel that everything is pointing to a downwards reversal (confirmed by a downwards break on the CCI). Despite the reassuring economic prints out of america in the past few weeks driving up demand, the US Energy Information announced last week that crude oil inventories had risen by 10.1 million barracks, the highest for almost a year.
I have entered the trade $103.60, my stop is above the resistance line at $105.75 - Short of something drastic happening in the Ukraine though I just don't see it jumping that sharply.
The 100MA has been providing a strong support and resistance and I am looking for this support to coincide with 0.382 fibonacci level ($100) which is my first profit target area.
Please be aware that there is potential for great volatility in USOIL with the Ukraine/Russia tension not fully resolved and the violence in Nigeria at the moment due to the elections.
-Darren
