New Zealand dollar edges higherThe New Zealand dollar has posted small gains on Thursday, as NZD/USD has pushed above the 0.68 line in the North American session.
New Zealand is hugely dependent on its export industry, and the Covid pandemic has taken its toll on exports, as global demand has fallen. However, with the worst of Covid hopefully behind us, global demand has picked up, which bodes well for New Zealand's economy. The ANZ Commodity Price Index climbed 3.9% in February, its strongest gain since March 2021.
The war in Ukraine has intensified, with fierce fighting reported near Ukraine's major cities as the number of refugees fleeing from Ukraine has hit one million. Western countries has imposed severe sanctions on Moscow as relations between East and West have plummeted. Russian and Ukrainian officials will hold talks later today, which has raised risk sentiment and kept the New Zealand dollar in positive territory. NZD/USD has been on an impressive roll, posting four straight winning weeks and has gained close to 1 per cent this week. So far at least, the panic in the financial markets has not weighed on the New Zealand dollar, which is sensitive to risk.
The Fed is again on center stage, as Chair Jerome Powell testified on the Hill on Wednesday and will appear before lawmakers today as well. There had been some speculation that the war in Ukraine might force the Fed to delay a rate hike, but Powell removed any such doubts in his testimony, stating that the hike would go ahead as planned. Powell's comments suggested that the Fed will stick with the traditional 25-bps move rather than a massive half-point hike. The confirmation of a rate hike by Powell boosted US Treasury yields, and currently the 10-year yield is at 1.85%.
There is resistance at 0.6826 and 0.6908
NZD/USD has support at 0.6647 and 0.6550
Commodityindex
Commodity Index (SPGSCI) Global view DWe are approaching to the major resistance made by 3M timeframe.
However wave (a) of last (abc) pattern is ongoing so far. In this respect, I am awaiting SHARP wave (b) in the form of “Change in behavior” and then last move (c)(z)(C){a} prior to deep correction within M timeframe
Commodity CRB Index under resistanceAt the same time we see:
- DXY on massive support
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- EUR/USD under massive resistance
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- Gold under resistance:
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- Quantitative tightening from the fed which should result in USD strengthening, and QE still going on in ECB, which should lead to EUR weakening.
OJ1! @ daily @ highest H/L-Range commodity (of 32) while 2017This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
4XSetUps for next wee - friday close (32 Commodities)
drive.google.com
Best regards :)
Aaron
LF1! @ daily @ last 3 weeks lower (friday), until trend confirmsThis is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
4XSetUps for next wee - friday close (32 Commodities)
drive.google.com
Best regards :)
Aaron
CC1! @ daily @ nearest commodity (of 32) to ATL still not a buyThis is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
4XSetUps for next wee - friday close (32 Commodities)
drive.google.com
Best regards :)
Aaron
KC1! @ daily @ nearest commodity (of 32) to ATH back on trackThis is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
4XSetUps for next wee - friday close (32 Commodities)
drive.google.com
Best regards :)
Aaron
GBP/JPY 4H STRATEGY JAN 17 FORECASTGBPJPY - LONG ORDER
New Year, New motives: Aiming for an emotionless trading year.
- Money Management
- Strategy Play
- Discipline
- Patience
GBPJPY: SETUP
- Waiting for MA20 to cross back above MA50 for long orders.
- MA20 to test for support again.
Rules: Long
1. MA20 above MA50
2. Price must cross MA20 from below
3. Test MA20 for support
4. Create bullish 4H candle after test of support
Entry: Enter Long on close of Bullish candle
SL: Set below Bullish 4H candle
USDJPY 4H MA TREND STRATEGYUSDJPY - SHORT ORDER SET UP / STAGE 3/4
SL: 117.20
ENRTY: BEARISH CONFORMATION CANDLE CLOSE (EST: 18:00 GMT)
EXIT: PRICE CLOSES ABOVE MA20
4H trend strategy set up nearing completion, awaiting bearish conformation candle for test of MA20 as new resistance.
RULES: SHORT ORDERS
1. MA20 BELOW MA60
2. PRICE BELOW MA20
3. PRICE TEST MA20 AS RESISTANCE
4. BEARISH CONFORATION CANDLE
ENTRY: CLOSE OF CONFORMATION CANDLE.
Commodities: Oil leading the pack and an interesting spreadWe have an interesting setup here, with oil suddenly breaking up above weekly resistance, and outperforming precious metals, I think we might see a shift in positioning towards oil, and a few laggards that show an increase in commercial long positions for some time according to the commitment of traders report.
I'm watching oats, rough rice, soybeans, corn and wheat here.
Powerful trends look to either stall, or shift down, like the ones in silver, gold, orange juice, sugar, coffee...If everyone already bought and is in positions, who is left there to buy and bid it higher?
Right now, my focus is seeing which commodities moved up for the day yesterday, and then examine the individual setups. I'll post the ones worthy of attention, but meant to publish this as a heads up.
You can read the tickers and the color code on the top left corner.
Feel free to leave comments below.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.