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Commoditysignals

XAUUSD Is this rally coming to an end?Two weeks ago (October 07) we called for a new Bullish move (see chart below) on Gold (XAUUSD) as the price hit the 1W MA200 and held it The sheer force behind this bullish move has surpassed all technical expectations as it is also fundamentally driven by the Middle East tension. Gold acts as a safe haven in times of market uncertainty. In any case, the rally broke today above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (from the ATH) and entered the 5-month Resistance Zone that is in place since May 18 and has 10 rejections under its belt. The 1D RSI broken yesterday into the +70.00 overbought territory so a technical pull-back isn't at all unrealistic now. It all depends on the 1D candle closing (which will also be the weekly closing). If the candle closes below 1979 (0.618 Fibonacci), it will be an early bearish signal. The target of the first correction of the previous similar bullish leg in March was the 4H MA50 (red trend-line). As a result, if the candle makes that closing, we are willing to take the risk and target the 4H MA50/ 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Support cluster at 1935. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by TradingShot
1
WTI OIL Channel Up. Short-term sell opportunity.WTI Oil (USOIL) got heavily rejected following our sell signal (see chart below) earlier this month (October 02) after failing to close above the 12-month Double Top: This long-term bearish trade is still valid but on the short-term (4H time-frame) we see another sell opportunity in the making. The Channel Up that is emerging after the price got rejected on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) calls for a sell back to the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the pattern. Our target is 83.50 (-5.66 bearish leg as the one before it). The 4H MACD is about to form a Bearish Cross so if the price breaks below the (dashed) Higher Lows trend-line, we will sell the break-out and target the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) at 78.50 (just above Support 1). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
4
XAUUSD Channel Down turning into Inverse H&S?Gold (XAUUSD) emphatically smashed the bullish target we set 2 weeks ago (see chart below) and made a standard Lower High at the top of the 5-month Channel Up: The price also hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) in the process and that is a technical sell, with which we will target 1890 (just above Symmetrical Support 2). Since however the October 06 rebound was initiated on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), it may not just be a Channel Down Lower Low but a long-term market bottom and the Head of an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern. A Bullish Cross completion on the 1W MACD, will largely confirm that. Being a technical bullish reversal pattern, the IH&S typically targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, so 2095 is our long-term target. But on the shorter term, if the price breaks above 1953.50 (Resistance 1), we will target 1987 (just below Resistance 2). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
2
XAUUSD Channel-to-Channel Cycles. New Bull or 1700 next?This is not the first time we chart these Cycles on Gold (XAUUSD), as we did our latest study on September 27 (see chart below) and we were quick to catch the break-out sell on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line): This time though, we add the Channel element as well as the unique US10Y/DXY ratio and the mix proves to be quite accurate. As you see every Channel Down (red) is formed on a rising US10Y/DXY ratio, which is naturally expected as both the US10Y and DXY are negatively (inversely) correlated to Gold. Similarly every Channel Up (green) is formed while the US10Y/DXY ratio gets neutralized. Right now the ratio is on the rise, hence the Channel Down on Gold, and the price hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 11 months (since November 07 2022) and immediately reacted with a bounce. At the same time, the 1W RSI hit the top of the 2-year Support Zone. Every time the RSI hit this Zone, while the US10Y/DXY ratio was rising, Gold started to form its market bottom. The only time this RSI Support Zone got hit and Gold didn't rise was when the ratio was declining (July 11 2022). Right now we have the conditions for a market bottom as the ratio is rising. Next week will be critical as if it closes the candle in green and the RSI reverses, then we can see a 1-month bottom formation that will lead to the new Channel Up. If not, we can't rule a price as low as 1700. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
5
XAUUSD Time to see the first short-term rebound.On last week's Gold (XAUUSD) analysis we called it was time to finally break below the 1W MA50 (chart below) and it did in spectacular fashion, already hitting the 1850 target: The price now almost hit the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) and being near the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the 5-month Channel Down, the conditions for a short-term (at least) rebound emerge. The 1D RSI hit 20.00, the lowest it has been in almost 7 years (since December 14 2016) and that enhances the probabilities of a rebound. The current Channel Down resembles that of 2022 and as you see all rebounds to Lower Highs hit at least either the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level or the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). We are therefore targeting the new 0.5 Fib at 1885 for the moment, unless the price hits the 1D MA50 first. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
5
WTI OIL Huge Cup and Handle?WTI Oil (USOIL) hit and broke last week the 93.75 Resistance (which was the October 10 & November 07 2022 Highs) but failed to stay above it and got aggressively rejected back below it. This emphatic rejection indicates that as long as the price doesn't close a 1W candle above the Resistance, the short-term trend has more probabilities of being bearish. ** Cup and Handle ** We often like to view our financial assets on a more long-term scale using larger time-frames. We can claim that the recent Channel Up since June has completed a Cup formation. What technically follows within this pattern is the formation of the Handle. If Oil is indeed trading on the Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern, then once the bottom of the Channel Up breaks (assuming we keep closing below the 93.75 level), it can start the formation of the Handle part. ** The importance of the MA levels ** This 1W chart shows also the important that the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) have been having in the past year or so. They act as Supports until broken and move to the next one and similarly as Resistances. As you can see the current bull run since June started after the 1W MA200 held repeatedly (closed above it 7 candles despite hitting and breaking it), then broke above the 1W MA50 that was holding since August 2022 and 1W MA100 that was holding since November 2022. ** So what's the target? Fibs in play? ** So as long as the conditions mentioned above are met and Oil starts forming the Handle, you can use the 1W MA100 (closing below it) as the break-out sell signal and target the 1W MA50 at $80.00. This is marginally above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which has its own fair share of importance. Notice that the 1W RSI is just below the 70.00 overbought barrier. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
6
XAUUSD Time to finally break below the 1W MA50? How bad is it?Gold (XAUUSD) is about to test the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the week of December 26 2022. Last time it was nearly hit (February 20 - 27 2023) it supported the pull-back emphatically, and initiated a strong rebound. Almost 5 months ago (May 4), when everyone in the market was jubilant about Gold's new All Time High, we warned the community (see chart below) of the high probability of a 1W MA50 correction if the the 1W candle failed to close above the 2075 Resistance, which is holding since the August 2020 High: This is what happened as the price closed below the ATH Resistance, the 1W RSI got rejected exactly on the Lower Highs trend-line (additional sell signal), hit the initial 1975 target and broke below the 1D MA50. In the proccess, it turned the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) into Resistance and formed the Lower Highs trend-line that dictate the course of the downtrend. This development (Lower Highs on top of a 1D MA100 Resistance) has been the characteristic of both previous corrections after fails to close above the 2075 level (August 2020, March 2022). On both sequences, Gold found the first Zone of Support within the 0.5 - 0.382 Fibonacci range. Our targets, always in the event of a close below the 1W MA50, are firmly placed (1850 and 1800) based on that Zone (we call it the High Volatility Zone) but this time is slightly different as we have to acknowledge the presence of the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is currently at 1812.50 and rising continuously. However the 1W MA200 was breached and the price even stayed below it for almost 2 months, last September (2022). This more than justifies a 1800 projection but best to pursue it with less risk after a 1W candle closing below the 1W MA200. During this 3-year pattern, the bottom is already priced when the 1W MACD forms a Bullish Cross below the 0.00 mark. Right now it is marginally on it but with no signs of reversing. On both previous corrections the week that followed the 1W MACD Bullish Cross, the price also broke above the 1D MA100. If it breaks before that, it could be a sign of an early bearish invalidation. Additional relevant material: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by TradingShot
2
XAUUSD Ichimoku supported within the Triangle.Gold (XAUUSD) is trading around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) after a Lower Highs trend-line at the top of 2-month Triangle. The MACD on the 1D time-frame has formed a Bullish Cross and as the green Ichimoku Cloud turned green, it waves a buy signal. Every time the Ichimoku turned green since July, Gold flashed a buy signal. As a result we expect one more rise towards at least the Lower Highs trend-line. Our target is 1943. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
2
WTI OIL Channel Up rejection at the top. More selling ahead?WTI Oil (USOIL) almost hit our $93 target on our last idea two weeks ago (see chart below) and yesterday reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 3-month Channel Up: The first reaction is so far a rejection that has already taken the price to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This is the first contact with it in 3 weeks but it's not a confirmed sell yet as during the previous Higher Highs run it got breached several times and still rebounded. The confirmation came when it broke below the 4H MA100 (green trend-line). As a result, we are only willing to take a confirmed break-out sell below the 4H MA100 and target $85.00 which is the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up (-8.68% from the top). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
4
COPPER Two year Triangle is about to break out!Copper (HG1!) has been trading within a Triangle pattern for more than 2 years and recently the price action has gotten so narrow that it prompts to a break-out soon. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been acting as the Pivot level while the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) had the last rejection on record on September 01. The 1D RSI since the May 24 Low has been printing a similar price pattern to July - October 2022 (so far). That fractal was also using the 1D MA50 as the Pivotand after it broke its Resistance, it rose aggressively almost as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. We will purse a more modest target, below the 1.5 Fib at 4.2000. The R/R is worth it as a break below the Higher Lows (bottom) of the Triangle will make us close the trade on minimum loss and open a sell instead targeting 3.5500 (Support 1). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
COMEX:HG1!Long
by TradingShot
XAUUSD Golden Cross and the 1H MA50 are supporting this uptrend.Last time we looked at Gold (XAUUSD), it gave us two sell opportunities both of which hit their targets (see chart below): The price has been rising since, supported by the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line) and on top of that, the 1H Golden Cross has been formed. Last time we saw that pattern was on August 23. On that fractal, once the 1H MA50 broke, the price pulled-back to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and then resumed the uptrend. As a result, we are bullish already since the 1H MA50 is supporting. If it holds, we will simply add one more buy position when the pull-back hits the 0.5 Fib. In either case, the target is 1953 (Resistance 3). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
1
NATURAL GAS Short-term buy but expect long-term reversal soon.Natural Gas (NG!) is struggling to get past the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the short-term Resistance and at the same time is supported by the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The long-term pattern is a Bullish Megaphone and besides the 1D MA100, the price action is supported by the pattern's bottom (Higher Lows trend-line). Recently however the pattern that has emerged is a Head and Shoulders (H&S) and it remains to be seen if it establishes itself on the immediate price action, which technically means a sharp decline, as in theory it is a bearish pattern. On the short-term, you can buy up to the Lower Highs trend-line and target 2.750. On the long-term we believe the upside is limited by the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is now on Resistance 2 (3.025) and most likely will reject any spike on Resistance 1 (2.865). So on the long-term, if the price breaks and closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA100 and Higher Lows trend-line, we will open a long-term sell and target 1.950 (Support 3). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:NG1!
by TradingShot
XAUUSD Sell opportunity within the Channel Up.Gold (XAUUSD) is trading within a Channel Up pattern but following the downtrend since the September 01 High, it may be nothing more but a Bull Flat pattern. Whatever the long-term case, the short-term trade is a sell as the price appears to be getting rejecting at the top of the pattern, while the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) looms above. Our target is the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) at 1918. We will make short-term trades only and buy every candle closing above the 1D MA200, targeting the upper Resistance levels. Similarly we will sell if a 4H candle closes below Support 1 and target 1903.50 (Support 2). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by TradingShot
2
XAUUSD Quick buy opportunity but upside long-term limited.Gold (XAUUSD) may have formed a Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame but the bullish effect can only be short-term as the Falling Wedge pattern limits the upside below its Lower Highs trend-line. Regardless of that, ahead of an emerging 4H MACD Bullish Cross, we are using this opportunity for a quick buy that targets 1947.50. A closing below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, invalidates that opportunity and opens the way to a deeper decline such as on August 02. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
4
XAUUSD Buy opportunity on a 2 week horizon.Gold (XAUUSD) has been consolidating for the past 2 trading sessions, having held the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on Friday as Support. With the 4H STOCH RSI on a similar cross-to-cross sequence as July 05/06, one last pull-back inside the Ichimoku cloud, can be a Higher Low on an emerging Channel Up. If we see that rebound, we will buy and set a quick target just below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). If the price manages to close a 4H candle above it, we will buy again and pursue a final target at 1975 (just below the 2.5 Fibonacci extension). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
11
WTI OIL Rejection on the 4H MA50, sell if the 4H MA200 breaks.WTI Oil (USOIL) got emphatically rejected yesterday on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and formed another Lower High on the emerging Channel Down. The price is now approaching the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) on an additional sell signal as the 4H MACD just completed a Bearish Cross, the first since the one that started this correction at the top on August 10. As a result, we are waiting for this bearish continuation confirmation, and will sell after a 4H candle closing below the 4H MA200. Our target will by 76.00 (just above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line)). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
1
XAUUSD Still nothing bullish about it yet.Gold (XAUUSD) broke below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since December 19 2022 and that of course didn't do any favors to the bullish cause. The trend remains bearish within a Channel Down since the May 04 2023 High and the technical outlook gets even worse as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is on course to forming a 1D Death Cross below the 1D MA200, projected at the end of the month (would be the first such pattern since July 04 2022). As a result we expect the price to remain under pressure and eventually test the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line) within 1860 - 1850, regardless of a potential decline on the DXY (green trend-line) which was unable to lift Gold as we saw in June. The bullish trend will re-emerge only if the price breaks above the Channel Down and more specifically, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the bottom at that given time. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by TradingShot
3
XAUUSD hit the 1D MA200 for the first time in 8 months.Gold (XAUUSD) easily hit our 1913 short-term target within the narrow Channel Down, as presented on our last idea (see chart below): As the price hit yesterday the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since December 20 2022, it is time we look again at the long-term charts in an attempt to identify potential Support/ Pivot levels. On the 1D time-frame, we have Support 1 at 1893 which along with Resistance 1 (1987.50) form the most noticeable pattern on the 1D time-frame, a 3 month Rectangle. As long as the 1D candle closes above the 1D MA200, we may see a bounce without a Support 1 test. In either case, we will buy and target 1980 (just below Resistance 1). If however a 1D candle closes below Support 1, we will take the loss and sell instead targeting the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) at 1870. Amidst the above, once/ if the 1D RSI breaks below its 30.00 barrier, Gold will start turning into a solid long-term buy opportunity, so regardless of having hit the 1870 target or not, we will close the sell and turn bullish again, targeting initially the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
XAUUSD Sell signal on the 1H time-frameGold (XAUUSD) broke below its 1H MA50 again (blue trend-line). Within the 2-week Channel Down pattern on this chart, every time the price broke below the 1H MA50, it continued to a Lower Low. With the 1H MACD also under a Bearish Cross formation, this is a clear technical sell signal and below Support 1 (1925) is Support 2 (1912.60) for a potential Lower Low. We are targeting 1913. If however the price closes above the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line) we will take the loss and buy instead, targeting the Lower Highs trend-line at 1970. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by TradingShot
1