XAUUSD 1D MA50 in Support but MACD Bearish Cross threat.Gold (XAUUSD) kept the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support as it made a Friday rebound exactly on it. At the same time the 1D RSI bounced on its Higher Lows trend-line since the June 29 bottom.
As long as the price is closing above the 1D MA50 (and obviously the 1943 Support that was formed), the trend is bullish towards the Lower Highs with a 1978 short-term target. In order to extend the uptrend, a 1D candle needs to close above Resistance 1 (1987.50).
The biggest bearish signal however is the Bearish Cross on the 1D MACD that is about to be formed. This means that if the price breaks below the Higher Lows trend-line, it will be a sell signal towards Support 2 at 1913. If the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) supports on Support 2 and 3, the long-term bullish trend remains intact.
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Commoditysignals
COPPER Two year Triangle may finally break.Copper (XCUUSD) is trading within a Triangle pattern since the March 07 2022 High. The price is currently above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), supported twice by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The 1D RSI shows that we may be replicating the July 15 - September 20 2022 fractal.
If the price breaks above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Triangle, then based on the fractal should target initially the 1.5 Fibonacci extension level at 4.1800.
As long as it closes below the Lower Highs, we will sell and target the 3.6870 Support.
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XAUUSD at the bottom of its 3 week Channel Up.Gold (XAUUSD) broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and hit today the bottom of the 3 week Channel Up pattern that has been in effect for the whole month of July. This is a short-term buy signal as the 4H RSI is also on the same level it was on the July 06 Higher Low.
The lowest risk entry will be after the RSI breaks above its MA trend-line (yellow), as this has been a confirmed buy signal in at least the past 2 months. When it does, we will take a short-term buy and target 2015 (below Resistance 2 but Higher High for the Channel Up).
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NATURAL GAS Buy lower, sell the break-outLast time we looked into Natural Gas (NG) we called for a buy entry (see chart below) right after the contact at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Bullish Megaphone:
The 2.550 target has been hit but the rise didn't stop there, breaking even above the former 2.690 Resistance and making a Higher High in the process. The price is right now above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but in terms of Risk/ Reward neither a favorable buy or a sell. We are willing to buy at 2.400 with a tight stop just below the Megaphone's Higher Lows trend-line and target 2.800 (below Resistance 1). If a 1D candle closes below the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the pattern, we will sell and target the 1.950 Support.
The 1D RSI is trading inside a Channel Up pattern. If broken, it will be a first confirmation of a bearish break-out signal.
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XAGUSD Massive success on last trade now looking for the next!Silver (XAGUSD) gave us a very successful sell trade on our last analysis (see chart below) on April 12:
The price rebounded right before hitting the 21.715 Pivot because it touched the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Even though May's rejection was done at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down that started in August 2020, we may witness the break-out above this bearish structure finally as since the August 29 2022 bottom, a Bullish Megaphone and later a Channel Up are guiding the price action.
On top of that, Silver is completing the first 1W Golden Cross since May 2020. In any case we will not jump on this impulsively but rather wait for a clear bullish break-out signal, which will be if a 1W candle closes above the Lower Highs trend-line. In this case we will target Resistance 1 (26.230) and Resistance 2 (26.935) respectively. If the price gets rejected on the Lower Highs instead, we will wait for a buy on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
Notice also the 1W MACD Bullish Cross that is about to be formed, indicating that a continuation of the current uptrend might be more probable than a rejection.
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xauusd ⇨ when entering the short position.hello guys...
I believe the main trend is still bullish but there is some area in the lower level that should be touched!
on the other hand, the second yellow area is the QML area so we can expect a correction there!
I recommend you break your volume into three parts:
the first entering could be the second yellow area
the next one could be when the xauusd hunt the last higher high
and keep the last part when we get a confirmation for a short position in the lower time frame!
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BluetonaFX - SILVER 26 Level Next TargetHi Traders!
There is strong resistance on Silver at the psychological 25 level. After the ascending channel break, there was a bullish wave towards the 25 level, and we now have a big slowdown in the bullish momentum.
Looking at the price action on the chart, the market looks like it wants to break the 25 level to target our long-term resistance level at 26.129, primarily due to the lack of any current pullbacks. However, we may need a new wave of bulls to achieve this.
That being said, the longer the 25 level holds, the more chance we have of getting a pullback to test the 24 level as support. If we get a momentum break and close above 25, then 26.129 is the next key level; there was a double top at this level in May 2023.
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XAUUSD is trying to hold the 1D MA50. Huge rally if it succeeds.Gold (XAUUSD) eventually broke above the 2 month Channel Down and even made a candle closing above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) last week:
Currently the big development for buyers would be to hold the 1D MA50 and establish it as the new long-term Support. Based on both the 1D RSI and 1D MACD, Gold has alreayd formed a technical bottom similar to the February 27 2023 and October 21 2022 patterns. Assuming the long-term pattern is a Channel Up, this latest bottom is a technical Higher Low.
As a result, if the price breaks above Resistance 1 (1968.50), we expect a bullish extension first to Resistance 2 (2020) and then Resistance 3 and All Time High at 2080.
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BluetonaFX - SILVER Ascending Channel 24.000 Target HIT!Hi Traders!
Our Silver ascending channel opportunity (LINK TO ORIGINAL IDEA BELOW) from a few days ago worked to perfection, and the market agreed with our bullish view. The 23.228 was finally broken with momentum, and we had a massive bull rally to our profit target of 24.000 to fulfil our opportunity.
We are now trading just above the 24.000 level. There is another resistance level at 24.521, so if the bullish momentum continues, that will be the next target.
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BluetonaFX - USOIL 74 Target HITHi Traders!
Our range zone on USOIL worked exactly as predicted (LINK TO ORIGINAL IDEA BELOW). The range zone support of 66.88 refused to be broken, and the bulls took over to push the market up to the range zone resistance of 74.72.
Now, we need to see how the market behaves around this level, the psychological 75 barrier is just above, and there will be some resistance here as the market has not been above the 75 level in a couple of months.
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XAUUSD Channel Down still stands, trade within this range.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern for almost 2 months, with it being the correctional wave from the April - May vastly overbought technical levels. Our focus is now on the shorter term were the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) continues to act as the Resistance and the new 4H MA100 (green trend-line) rejection should technically pull the price down near the Higher Lows trend-line.
This projection is modelled out of the May 30 - June 14 fractal. Our sell target is 1906.50, unless the price breaks above the 4H MA200, in which case we will buy the break-out and target the 1D MA50 at 1955.
On the medium-term, a bounce on Support 1, can provide the next sell entry that will target the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) within 1,880 - 1,875 which is the long term sellers' target.
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GOLD ---> is going to touch $1852hello guys...
as you can see gold formed a descending channel and break this out!
At the same time, it formed a base channel that is sharper than a regular channel!
in this case, you can expect a downward movement as high as a regular channel, but if you look at the higher time frame you can see a support level of $1874, so I recommend you close half of your position there and close on $1853 the remaining one!
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BluetonaFX - USOIL 74 Level Next TargetHi Traders!
Our range zone support on US OIL refuses to be broken, and we are heading back towards the 74.72 range zone resistance level. Previously, we spotted a possible triangle break to the downside with a dragon fly doji candle pattern (LINK TO IDEA BELOW), and one of our rules to confirm the break was a break and close below the range zone support at 66.88, which we did not get. This confirms to us that the market is content to remain in the range.
74.72 seems to be the next target, and we can look to continue trading the range with possible shorts with tight stops around this level.
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We appreciate your support.
BluetonaFX
GOLD ---> two possible short positionshello guys..
as you can see on the chart gold is on descending channel very well
there are two are that the price could start the downward movement from there!
i put this detail on the chart
the target for both positions is the blue area,
it is R:R 1:3.5 POSITION, GREAT RISK TO REWARD!
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BluetonaFX - USOIL PRICE ACTION ANALYSISHi Traders,
Although we are all in the middle of key fundamentals in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the US, US Oil is still trading beautifully technically.
Here on the 1D chart, we are in the range zone and have been in the past few weeks or so. We first had a price gap (shown on the chart) to break the range zone and rally up to 83.49, which is our upper Vector level. After reaching 83.49, there was a pullback to fill the price gap with a very aggressive bearish push to break below the range zone, which was rejected at the 63.61 level. After this rejection, there was a close back inside the range zone.
The range zone resistance is 74.72 and the range zone support is 66.88. While in the range zone, there are great risk to reward opportunities to sell at the resistance and buy at the support with stops outside the range zone depending on which side of the trade you are on. If there is a break on either side, then we are looking at our Vector levels as possible targets. A break above the range zone and we have the Vector level target at 83.49 and a break below the range zone and we have the Vector level target at 63.61.
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BluetonaFX
WTI OIL decline continuation and potential bounce around 69.40.WTI Oil (USOIL) almost hit our 75.00 target with Monday's gap up, as we discussed on our analysis last week (see chart below):
The rejection was made slightly above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Higher Highs trend-line. We now expect this pull-back to test the 69.40 Symmetrical Support and rebound. Our new target will be 74.00, at the bottom of the Triangle rejection Zone and below both the 1D MA50 and possibly at the time the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
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XAUUSD is starting its new bullish leg to at least 2100.Gold (XAUUSD) hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) again and this is technically completing the bottom phase that we called for 3 weeks ago (see chart below):
Our trading strategy hasn't changed, that was our long-term entry, bottom on the Higher Lows trend-line of the 7 month Channel Up and target a Higher High at 2100. Potentially, if it repeats another +10.60% rise, ut can even go as high as 2140. Regardless of that, this appears to be the start of the new bullish wave to a Higher High. Even the 1D RSI is on perfect symmetry with the February 02 - March 08 correction (bearish wave).
A 1D candle closing below the 1D MA100 however, thus the Channel Up, can potentially accumulate more selling pressure and accelerate the decline towards the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and 1840.
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WTI OIL Buy signal targeting the 1D MA100.WTI Oil (USOIL) reversed after hitting our previous target (see chart below) and is now rebounding again:
As you see it bounced off the previous Support Zone of the candle bodies, which we view it as a Pivot Zone similar to the one formed on December 16 2022. On both sequences the 1D RSI rebounded after almost turning oversold (below 30.00) and the current rebound was from the symmetrical 37.50 level.
The technical target is the Higher Highs trend-line and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), as it did on January 18, which we project to be at 75.00. Keep in mind that since November 04 2022 (almost 7 months) of long-term Channel Down trading, the price almost hit the 1D MA100 before getting rejected.
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XAUUSD Rebounding on the Channel Down bottom.Last week, as well as two weeks ago (see charts below) we called for a buy entry on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) on Gold (XAUUSD) and today it has started to deliver:
As you see, this is similar to the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up (March 08), with the price closing again above the 1D MA100. The confirmation was delivered once the price broke and closed above the 4H MA50 too (yellow trend-line). Our long-term bullish target is intact at 2100. If we get a closing below the 1D MA100 however, we will turn bearish instead and sell, targeting the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) at 1840. On the current levels, the risk is low anyway.
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XAUUSD completed a 1W MACD Bearish Cross. Warning!Gold (XAUUSD) completed this week the first Bearish Cross on the 1W MACD since the week of April 25 2022 (a year+ ago). This is a strong bearish technical signal that cannot be ignored as its last two occurrences above the 0.00 MACD level, kickstarted multi-month declines, all exactly from the same 2070 - 2080 Resistance level.
In order for such a correction to be avoided we need a 1W candle to close above the last highest closing level of the peak candle. In the previous two cases it failed. On the current case, that is 2018. Until that happens, every rise is a sell opportunity as long as a series of Lower Highs is formed.
Since the price hit the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) yesterday and is rebounding, it is quite likely to see a medium-term rebound as high as 2000 for the next optimal sell opportunity. Unless of course the 1W candle closes below the 1D MA100 first. A sell closer to 2000 though with the invalidation level marginally above it (at 2018) offers a great Risk/ Reward ratio. In either case the first long-term target of the downside is the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), with an early projected contact at 1850. On the other hand, a 1W close above 2018, is a bullish break-out signal targeting the 2083 All Time High.
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XAUUSD Rejected on the 4H MA50. Bottom process starting.Gold (XAUUSD) has started the final phase of the bottom process as we presented on the 1D time-frame last week:
This time we shift to the 4H chart, as some short-term parameters are more obvious. Following the 4H Death Cross, Gold made today an exact rejection on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This is a similar rejection to February 14, which also came after a 4H Death Cross. We have the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) as the first line of Support (which held and made the price rebound on the March 08 Low) but if a -8.00% decline from the top is repeated, we may see the price break a little lower than the long-term Channel Up this time.
Our goal is anywhere inside the green circle, or on the 4H MACD's 3rd Higher Low. Our long-term target of 2100 is intact.
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Is Gold pulling up a Bitcoin correction?Gold (XAUUSD) is trading below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the second week in a row, something that hasn't done since early March. In striking fashion Gold's price action since the March 2022 High is astonishingly similar to Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) price action from its April 2021 High to November 2021 (up until now, it remains to be seen if it continues to replicate the pattern).
Bitcoin started falling under Lower Highs, bottomed following a Death Cross and while the 1D RSI was on Higher Lows and a Golden Cross was the mid rally signal to buy for the new market High. It peaked on Higher Highs while the 1D RSI was on Lower Highs (Bearish Divergence) and after breaking below the 1D MA50 again, it never tested it again until leg (l), long after it broke below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as well.
Gold currently declined after the same 1D RSI Lower Highs Bearish Divergence and if it fails to re-establish successive trading days above the 1D MA50 again, it can hit the 1D MA200 (currently at 1828.35 and rising) on leg (j).
Do you think it will pull out that Bitcoin-like correction?
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WTI OIL Triangle closing decides the trend.WTI Oil (USOIL) has easily hit our short-term target (see chart below) and is now consolidating:
This consolidation is being done within a Triangle pattern, which as we saw on Friday it remained valid despite the fact that the price broke marginally above it, as the 4H candle closed eventually back inside it. This suggests that the (currently neutral trend) will change only when we have a 4H candle closing outside of the Triangle.
If that is above it, then we will buy and target within the 76.50 Resistance and the 4H MA200 at 75.50. If it closes to the downside, we will sell towards the Support and target 68.00. The fact that the 1D RSI is above its MA line, indicates that the bullish case is slightly favored.
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