XAUUSD Closed above the 1D MA200 but important Resistance ahead!Gold (XAUUSD) closed yesterday above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since June 16, making a Higher High on the trend-line that started on the October 04 High. We've discussed about the Ascending Triangle pattern since the September 28 low and with yesterday's move, Gold finally hit our long pursued 1800 target:
Even though closing above the 1D MA200 is a huge development after so many months, we currently see a strong Resistance cluster. First of all, the 1808 Resistance from the August 10 High. Even in the event of a closing above the Higher Highs trend-line, the upside is limited to the 0.5 Fibonacci level (1842.50) and the Pivot Zone (blue) it typically creates. See how the 0.382 and 0.236 Fibs acted as Resistance Zones (the 0.236 recently as Support, thus treating them as Pivots).
As a result this can only be a short-term target, in the event that Gold closes above the 1808 August 10 High. On the other hand, a closing below the 1D MA200 can first test the 4H MA50 (red trend-line) as a short-term Support and then the 0.236 Fib as it did on November 23. The long-term Support, and best buy entry is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). A closing below it, turns the long-term trend back to bearish, targeting 1,630.
Notice how the 1D RSI has a Higher Lows trend-line that since September 26 has caught all three bottoms, thus most optimal buy entries. Use that if the RSI touches the trend-line again.
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Commoditysignals
PLATINUM The 1D MA50 is the key. Potential long-term bull.Platinum (XPTUSD) has been trading within a (very) long-term Triangle pattern since the September 24 2020 Low. That was the low that initiated a massive rally to the February 16 2021 High that started the long-term Lower Highs trend-line, which lastly rejected the price November 11 2022.
The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is the key here. As long as it holds, there are good chances that Platinum will push for another Lower Highs test and potentially a break-out, targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
If the 1D MA50 breaks, we will pursue the Symmetrical Support Zone as our short-term target and the September 24 2020 low (830.00) as our long-term.
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WTI OIL Strong rebound on oversold RSI Resistance.The WTI Oil (USOIL) almost turned oversold on its 1D RSI today and the last time it approached the 30.000 level was on September 26. That was the low of the multi-month downtrend, with Oil making a counter trend rebound to 93.65 in just 10 days!
On the short-term, the Resistance that has been intact since November 15 is the 4H MA50 (red trend-line). Breaking above it would be confirmation of the rebound extension. On the medium-term the target is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). On the long-term it can be within 89.50 - 90.00, the first is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and the second represents a +22.60% rise, identical with the rise of September 26 - October 10.
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XAUUSD Bullish break-out targeting 1800Gold (XAUUSD) broke and closed above the 4H MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time since November 18 and turned the short-term trend bullish again. The target is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is just below the 1800 psychological level, and has been unbroken since June 23.
Notice how perfectly the November 23 low and rebound was made on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Next long-term buy signal, when the 1D RSI hits its Higher Lows trend-line.
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COPPER looks doomed on the long-term. Sell the rallies.Copper (HG1!) on the 1W time-frame appears to be repeating the previous major Bear Cycle that started in 2011/12. Based on this fractal analysis, the recent 1W rejection just below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) puts us at a proportionate level as on the February 06 2012 1W candle. Having rebounded on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) both on the July 11 and September 26 candles, we expect initially to reach it again and then rebound to make a Lower High and form a trend-line similar to that of 2012 - 2014 that made structured Highs to sell that took Copper to the 2.000 - 1.9360 Support Zone.
This long-term bearish pattern will get invalidated if the price breaks above the 0.618 Fibonacci extension, which was where (slightly below) the price was rejected on the February 06 2012 1W candle.
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XAGUSD Huge sell opportunitySilver (XAGUSD) has been trading since September exactly like we wanted it to, as we have been tracking its long-term Channel Down pattern correctly:
Our 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) target has been hit, with the price also marginally breaking above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down (Fibonacci level 1.0). That doesn't call for a bullish extension towards the 1.382 Fib like the Ukraine - Russia was extreme did, as the price quickly retraced back below the 1D MA200.
This continues to replicate the rebound after the Internal Lower Lows, which is the fractal that helped us take that buy trade on September. That sequence, following the 1D MA200 rejection, pulled-back to the 0.236 Fibonacci level. Since the current top on the September - November bullish leg was made a Fib level higher, we are setting the targeted low higher as well, on the 0.382 Fib instead of the 0.236.
The next buy opportunity would be when the 1D RSI hits the 30.000 oversold barrier again.
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XAUUSD Short-term weakness. Buy lower or if this level breaks.Gold (XAUUSD) broke below its 4H MA50 (red trend-line) on Friday for the first time since November 04, which was when the strong rally started on the Triple Bottom. Having failed to reach the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is the long-term Resistance and difference maker between a long-term bullish and long-term bearish trend, this is most likely the start of a much needed technical pull-back.
The Support levels are the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). If this repeats the October 04 - October 21 Bearish Leg, then it could reach 1670 but looks unlikely as this is below not only the 1D MA50 and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (1681).
Perhaps the best indicator to buy is when/ if the 1D RSI hits its Higher Lows trend-line from the September 26 Low. If the pull-back is discontinued and the price rises instead, then we will buy the break-out above the 4H MA50. The target in both cases is the 1D MA200.
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XAUUSD Approaching the 1W MA100. Bullish above, bearish below.Gold (XAUUSD) is approaching the most critical level of its long-term trend. That is the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), which is currently at 1802.69 and tends to be the deciding factor between Gold's Bull and Bear Cycles.
This sample on the 1W time-frame starts from late 2009 and it shows that when Gold is in an uptrend and the 1W MA100 supports, the Bull Cycle remains. When it is broken decisively with successive candle closings below, the 1W MA100 from Support turns into the Resistance of the new Bear Cycle.
That last happened in mid June 2022. Based on both the 1W MACD and RSI, it would appear that the 2020 - 2022 price action follows the 2011 - 2013 sequence that initiated the Bear Cycle of the mid 2010s. As you see, the 1W MA100 didn't break until February 2016, where a three year consolidation/ accumulatio phase started that gave way to the recent Bull Cycle.
As a result, we are on pivotal crossroads on Gold right now as it approaches yet again the 1W MA100 like in early August 2022 where it failed. Successive closings above it, would mean that the Bear Cycle is invalidated and at worst we enter a new accumulation period, waiting for the new Bull rally. Until that happens, expect the price to get rejected near or on the 1W MA100, which maintains the bearish long-term trend.
Which direction do you think Gold will break to?
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WTI OIL Strong Support cluster. Fractal pointing to $93.00.The WTI Oil (USOIL) followed the exact projection we made earlier this week, as after a rebound to its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), it got rejected again and even broke as low as the Support Zone 1:
By doing so it reached the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which is the most important long-term Support. Last time it hit that level (September 26), it made an incredible rebound immediately. As you see we projected this drop on the bearish fractal of October 10 - 18. Plotting (yellow line) it on the price action since the November 07 rejection, it made a fairly accurate projection. This time we even looked at the September 14 - 26 bearish leg and as you see, the yellow fractal fits that one fairly well too. Also the resemblances between their 4H MACD sequences are evident.
Technically the 1W MA100 should hold and provide a rebound first to the 4H MA50 and 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and then towards the 93.75 Resistance. As with the September 26 bottom, we give it a small tolerance limit to allow for a fake-out. If this is exceeded, we'll take it as a sell break-out signal, targeting the 77.25 - 76.25 Support Zone (2).
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Cotton price looking bullish after breaking above 50 day SMATODAY’S MARKET IDEA:
Cotton price looking bullish after breaking above 50 day moving average
Cotton vs US Dollar current price $88.25, both rate of change 4 and 13 day above zero line (bullish); MACD above its signal line (bullish) and the fact that current price is above both its respective 20 and 50 day moving averages indicate bullish technical conditions, upside potential for longs in the short term (1-25 days) at $95.87 (38.2% retracement from its 13 week low) provide price can remain above the $86.2 support.
Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
WTI OIL Hit the bottom of H&S. Scenarios and how to trade them.WTI Oil (USOIL) hit today the bottom of a Head and Shoulders pattern since late October. With the Head being on November 07 and rejected on the 93.75 Resistance (1), the current Low is a short-term buy opportunity, targeting the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), as long as today's Low holds.
A closing below the bottom targets the Support Zone 1 but the long-term Support is the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). We see that such scenario matches almost perfectly the previous Resistance (1) rejection from October 09 to October 18. The MACD sequences between the two fractals are similar.
On the other hand, a break above the top of the Right Shoulder, would be a bullish break-out signal targeting again the 93.75 Resistance (1).
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XAUUSD Pull-back would be natural. Prepare for the next Support.Gold (XAUUSD) had its strongest short-term rally since March and succeeded at breaking above its long-term bearish trend (Channel Down) and 1D MA100 (green trend-line), confirming our bullish outlook on our previous analysis:
Even though it didn't hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), the yellow metal is already showing the first signs of exhaustion and if it makes a new Low as opposed to Friday, it would be natural to see bottom buyers take their profit. With the 1D RSI trading inside a Channel Up, we have strong evidence that we are in a similar top as October 04. A potential pull-back should test the first Support levels of the 1D MA100 and 4H MA50 (red trend-line). If they hold, expect a Resistance and Higher Highs test. If broken, then revisit of the 1660 level (within 0.618 - 0.786 Fib), which would be the strongest buy level for the long-term.
If however the Higher Highs break first, buy into the short-term rally and target the 1D MA200. After that, only a closing above the 1D MA200 can justify a long-term buy to the next Resistance.
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WTI OIL Broke above the 1D MA100 for the first time in 4 months!WTI Oil (USOIL) didn't just break above its long-term Channel Down pattern on Friday, but at the same time broke and closed above its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since July 05. That alone is the second major bullish signal on WTI, after the September 27 rebound on the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). That is something we made clear on our previous analysis:
Right now the price is entering the Resistance Zone of August, which only broke once in August 29/30. This time however the technicals are different as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has become as Support and the MACD on the 1W time-frame has made a Bullish Cross, the first since January 17 2022! At the same time, the 1D RSI remains on Higher Highs and a huge bullish divergence as the actual price is on Lower Highs (since August 29).
As a result, trade within the medium-term (October) Channel Up (dotted lines) for as long as it lasts. A break above, targets the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and above the 0.618 Fib, strong bounce to the 0.786. On the other hand, we will turn bearish on if the price breaks below the 1D MA50, and target the 1W MA100.
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XAUUSD Close to a major bullish break-out!Gold (XAUUSD) closed on Friday above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since August 12 that was practically the time that the stock market made its previous High. At the same time, Gold broke and closed above both the former Channel Down and Triangle patterns that we discussed where bullish break-out signals on our past analyses.
Despite the positives, the price remains within the long-term Channel Down pattern in late April. It is however the first time that the 1D MA50 breaks twice within a month during this 2022 downtrend. Also while the price was making a Triple Bottom on the 1615 - 1617 Support Zone, the 1D RSI has been rising on Higher Lows since September 26, a technical sign of a potential bullish reversal.
As a result the chances of the price breaking above the long-term Channel Down and testing the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) which has been untouched since May 09, are the best ever. That would be the major bullish break-out towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). A closing within the Channel Down though, can target the Support again for a new re-test confirmation.
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XAUUSD Approaching a critical Resistance. Trading plan ahead!Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down (blue) inside a Triangle pattern (dashed lines). The distinct characteristic is that the price hasn't had a 4H candle closing above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) since October 07. Even the recent attempts that broke above it (Oct 26/27 and Nov 02) failed to close above it and dropped emphatically back below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
As a result, a candle close above the 4H MA200 would be the first bullish signal while one above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), which is exactly on the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Triangle, would confirm it. In that case, we will target the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the long-term March 2022 Channel Down (green line). Further break-out should test the 1D MA100 (yellow trend-line). Notice how the RSI on the 1D time-frame is on Higher Lows all this time, potentially accumulating a build-up for a major bullish break-out.
However, new rejection on the 4H MA200, will maintain the short-term bearish trend within the Channel Down and target the bottom (dashed line) of the Triangle pattern.
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WTI OIL Near the top of the 4 month Channel Down.The WTI Oil (USOIL) rebounded on its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) yesterday and is once again near the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the long-term Channel Down pattern that started at the end of June.
On the short-term, it has been trading within a Channel Up (dashed lines) since the October 18 Low. Naturally, the Higher Lows on the 4H RSI draw comparisons with the August 30 - September 20 fractal, which formed a Channel Down and eventually bottomed around the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line).
Our trading plan involves break-outs. A 1D closing above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down, targets the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) on the short-term, also inside the August Resistance Zone. On the longer term, the upper Fibonacci retracement levels can be targeted once the previous breaks.
If the price breaks below the 4H MA200, a short-term Channel Down similar to that of mid September (blue) can be materialized and target the 1W MA100 again.
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XAUUSD Inverse Head and Shoulders calls for a Buy.Gold (XAUUSD) dropped below its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) after failing to close a candle above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and remains within a Triangle pattern (dashed lines) since the September 28 Low.
The 1D RSI remains on Higher Lows since that day so it gives some edge to the upside, which can come if the current short-term pattern gets confirmed as an Inverse Head and Shoulders. Technically, this is a bullish pattern found on market bottoms and calls for a rebound. If it is validated by a break above the 4H MA50, we can pursue one short-term target on the 4H MA200, one medium-term on the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and if that breaks then the top of the long-term (since March) Channel Down (green) around 1690.
On the other hand, the slightest break below the Triangle's Higher Lows trend-line (dashed line), calls for a long-term sell targeting the 1W MA300 (red trend-line, scroll lower on the chart, currently at 1548).
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WTI OIL Short-term breakout levels and one long-term to considerWTI Oil (USOIL) broke today above its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) after three consecutive rejections and is going for the 1D MA50 (green trend-line) test where it was rejected on October 20. A break above it would be a short-term bullish break-out signal, targeting the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down pattern that the commodity has been trading in since June 29 (rough estimate 90.00).
Remember that this is the very same Channel Down that helped us take an accurate sell position 2 weeks ago as shown on the chart below:
If however the price breaks below the (dashed) Higher Lows trend-line, we will take it as a break-out sell signal, initially targeting the middle (dotted line) of the Channel Down, which is where the crucial 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line) is and then the September 25 Low (76.20) in extension (but only if the 1W candle closes below the 1W MA100).
Keep in mind that the only level we can buy comfortably on is upon a break above the 1D MA100 (red trend-line), which has been unbroken since July 05. That would target 105.00 initially.
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XAUUSD Bullish Flag repeating prior fractal. $1690 next?Gold (XAUUSD) largely confirmed our sell signal below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) on our last week analysis:
1620 was hit and the price bottomed on Lower Lows while the 4H RSI was on Higher Lows, with this Bullish Divergence signaling the most optimal buy entry. As you see, the same Bullish Divergence was formed on September 28, with Gold rebounding instantly back to the 4H MA50, which is exactly what took place last Friday. The price is now waving a Bull Flag below the 4H MA50 again and if the pattern continues to repeat, we can expect a new rally wave targeting the 1D MA50 (which is currently at 1695) and the dashed Lower Highs trend-line from the October 04 High. The top of the long-term Channel Up (green) gives an upside limit at 1710.
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WTI OIL broke below the 4H MA200. Bearish confirmation.This is an update to our WTI Oil (USOIL) post published last week, as our sell signal was confirmed:
The price broke below both the (dashed) Higher Lows trend-line and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and following the Rejection on the August Resistance Zone and the pricing of the new Lower High on the Channel Down since June, we can now expect at least a test of the previous Low at 76.30. A break above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) shouldn't invalidate that.
In our opinion technically only a 1D candle closing above the August Resistance Zone will be a bullish break-out signal (aimed at the 0.786 Fib), which now will be a break above both the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. We can start considering booking the sell and instead open a lower buy position when the 4H RSI breaks into its multi-month Support Zone. As you see, such RSI rebounds have always hit the 4H MA50 at least.
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XAUUSD Bullish Divergence on RSI. Be ready to trade break-outs.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down since October 10 when it broke below its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and today it got rejected on its top (Lower Highs trend-line) and the 4H MA100 (green trend-line).
Even though this is a technical sell entry, we should be mindful of the 4H RSI which has been on a Channel Up since also Oct 10, meaning that there is a Bullish Divergence. Potentially this may signify a loss in strength for the downtrend and may see a bullish break-out soon.
The strategy is simple: continue selling below the 4H MA50 but buy if the price closes above it. Targets 1,620 and the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) respectively.
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WTI OIL Sell Signal and invalidation levelFollowing our break-out buy signal last week, the WTI Oil (USOIL) has entered a Resistance Zone, which since the start of August has rejected the price every time with the temporary exception of 1 day (29-30 Aug):
Eventually the Channel Down turned out to be wider. The price is now pulling back since hitting the August Resistance Zone and the 4H RSI has been emphatically rejected much lower than we'd normally expect. This shows how overbought the price was during that 2 week bullish stretch. Despite the imminent formation of a Bullish Cross (MA50 crossing above the MA200), it is best to wait for a confirmed break-out before entering again.
In our opinion a sell break-out will be when the (dashed) Higher Lows trend-line breaks, which will be a breach of the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as well, targeting the September Low.
A buy break-out won't be above the Resistance Zone or the top of the Channel Down but above the 1D MA100 (red trend-line), which has been untouched since July 05 2022, in which case we can target the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
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XAUUSD Fierce battle on the 1W chart.Gold (XAUUSD) closed last week above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) but so far it started this week with a heavy drop back below it. This analysis shows a potential long-term Channel Down pattern on the 1W time-frame, which can extend the rebound that started two weeks ago after the price nearly touched the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the formation.
Basically so far in terms of both MACD and RSI, it resembles the bearish leg that formed the first Low of the Channel on the week of March 15 2021. Notice also that two weekly candles ago, the price also hit the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (High Aug 03 2020, Low Aug 13 2018). The previous Low rebound broke within the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib Zone from the prior High, also above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is now within 1807 - 1852.
As the long-term trend and the US10Y, DXY correlations weigh more towards a bearish Gold sentiment, it may be best to engage after a confirmation. And right now the best you can get would be when the 1W MACD makes a Bullish Cross (green arrow). Failure to do so, will break below the Channel and invalidate the pattern, in which case we can target the 1W MA300 (red trend-line).
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