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Commoditysignals

WTI OIL Bullish divergence could give one last pumpThe WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a structured Channel Down pattern since the March 08 market High, following the immense growth after the COVID 2020 demand crisis. We have covered the Higher Lows zones since the November 02 2020 Low (green circle) and the March 23 2021 Low (blue circle) extensively over the past months on the higher time-frames, but this time we will focus on the Bullish Divergences forming on the lower time-frames (t-f). The chart is on the 1D t-f, as well as the RSI with the MACD on the 8H t-f. As you see, the price is currently testing the August 11 High, which is its short-term Resistance and happens to be also on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which rejected Oil on that particular High. A break above it would be on its own a strong bullish break-out signal on the short-term. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is just above the MA200. On the flipside this means that it will form a Death Cross pattern, which is technically a bearish formation, for the first time since the Feb 25 2020 Death Cross, which preceded the COVID crash. With the Nov 2020 Higher Lows Zone (dotted lines) though right below, the Death Cross effect may be postponed for the short-term. Especially by having the 1D RSI forming the same bullish break-out pattern as with April 2022, which was the Lower Low formation that initiated the rebound to the Lower Highs trend-line of the Channel Down. The Bullish Divergence is more evident on the 8H MACD with them being on Higher Lows while Oil has been on Lower Lows since June 22. Technically the Channel Down should make a new Lower High within 110.00 - 115.00. A break below it though, should finally test the March 23 2021 Higher Lows zone (dashed lines). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
5
XAUUSD Successful rejection as expectedIt was only last week where we first called for some relief following Gold's (XAUUSD) 4 straight green weeks rally: The rejection has been successful and the price is now approaching the Pivot Zone (red) made of a similar fractal back in August - September 2021. The 4H MA50 (red trend-line) has crossed again below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 27. The same happened on September 16 2021 (red flag). This short-term pull-back shouldn't alter the medium-term bullish trend, as shown by both the 1D RSI, which remains on Higher Highs and the 1D MACD (histogram on Higher Highs and Higher Lows, but on Bearish Cross). Perhaps it would be best to wait for a break above the 1D MA50 again for a safer buy. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
WTI OIL 3rd week below the 1W MA50. Critical Support below.The WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) opened the week yesterday on the 3rd straight 1W candle below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Last time that such streak took place was in early November 2020! It is therefore easy to understand that if this level is not recovered, Oil may enter a new Bear Cycle. On the short-term we ideally want to see a candle closing above the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), in order to trigger a buy signal, targeting the Lower Highs of the March Top. Until then, the short-term price action calls for further selling towards the November 2020 Higher Lows trend-line. A closing below should be enough to trigger a bearish extension to the March 2021 Higher Lows. The 1W RSI has been trading within a Channel Down since March 2021 and is close to its bottom. That is an indicator showing that if it starts reversing, we may see a rebound (at least on the medium-term) on the November 2020 Higher Lows. We will follow with many updates until then. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
XAUUSD on 4 straight green weeks. Some relief next?Gold (XAUUSD) has completed four (4) bullish 1W (weekly) candles in a row since the mid July bottom. This is its longest green weekly streak since December 2021. Having broken last week above the Lower Highs trend-line from the March 08 Top, Gold quickly re-tested its 1D MA50 (green trend-line) as a Support. The overall long-term outlook hasn't changed since our July 08 idea: The next Resistance to overcome is the 1D MA200 (yellow trend-line) - 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) cluster, which happens to be just above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. We may not get a real move for months, as Gold has previously traded sideways within the 1750 Pivot line and that Resistance cluster, from late June 2021 to early February 2022 and the Ukraine - Russia war that helped it to fundamentally break upwards. So it is our opinion that unless XAUUSD closes above the 0.5 Fib level, a lot of low risk sideways opportunities exist within roughly 1750 - 1830. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
WTI OIL Rejection on the 1D MA200.The WTI CRUDE OIL (USOIL) is trading within a Channel Down since June 29, following quite closely the outlook we presented 1 month ago, as it hit the 1D MA300 (red trend-line) target: As you see, it has been below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) all this time and the longer it does, the more likely it is to print a Lower Low within the Channel Down on the dotted long-term Higher Lows trend-line around 82.00. This is further enhanced by today's rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). If however it breaks above the 1D MA50, look for a reversal towards the Lower Highs of March 08. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
3
XAUUSD Make or break time for the bullish case after a long timeGold (XAUUSD) continues to trade within the Channel Up we discussed last time, having hit on Thursday the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 22: It has only been a month since we laid out the symmetrical levels on the long-term and how 1680 would be targeted but remained the long-term Support. The rebound since July 21 has been strong and having broken above the 1D MA50, Gold is making a case for finally reversing the long-term bearish trend: As you see on today's chart, the final hurdle is the Lower Highs trend-line that started from the March 08 Top. Both the 1D RSI and the MACD show that the we've broken above momentum Resistances and the buying pressure is pilling up. A favorable R/R strategy would be to sell with an SL on the March Lower Highs if the 4H MA50 (red trend-line) breaks, and target the 1725 level, which is top of the Pivot Zone. If the price breaks above the March Lower Highs, we'll have the final confirmation for the shift to a bullish trend long-term, with a first target on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and second the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at 1875. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
WTI OIL heavily bearish eyeing a level untouched since Dec 2021!WTI CRUDE OIL (USOIL) eventually followed the rough projection we made three weeks ago and made a Lower Low as it failed to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again: This has created a new Channel Down on the medium-term, which after closing below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), it is now eyeing the 1D MA300 (red trend-line) for the first time since December 02 2021! As we outlined in our previous analysis though, the downtrend is unlikely to stop there and most likely will hit the November 2020 Higher Lows trend-line around 82.00 - 83.00 before giving a relief (at least) rally. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
1
GASOLINE Head and Shoulders likely to turn long-term bearishGasoline (RB1!) has been rising since the March 2020 bottom on a straight Channel until late February 2022 where war and inflation worries turned it parabolic as illustrated by the use of the Fibonacci Channel extensions. Following the June 06 market top, a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern was formed that hit (and so far rebounded on) the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), a level touched for the first time since December 23 2021. A break below the Support, should target the lower extension of the 1D MA300 (green trend-line), if not a retest of the Shoulder Resistance and potentially rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) would initiate the 1D MA300 drop. This trend-line has been Gasoline's Support since December 08 2020. This however may be the perfect opportunity to break it finally as the H&S pattern typically end such parabolas in fashion to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement level. Interestingly enough, that happens to be currently on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NYMEX:RB1!Short
by TradingShot
1
NATURAL GAS testing the 1D MA50 support.It has been almost 1.5 month since we last updated our Natural Gas (NG) thesis: As you see the symmetry within this long-term Bullish Megaphone worked perfectly and our sell hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) - 1D MA300 (green trend-line) Support Zone and rebounded. If you took that last buy and you haven't booked profits already, it may be a good time to do so if the current Support on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks. The reason is the Double Top formation created on the July 26 rejection. If the 1D MA50 breaks, target again the 1D MA200 at least. This long-term pattern has been very consistent and there seems to be no reason to change that until it breaks either direction. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by TradingShot
1
XAUUSD turned to a Channel UpGold (XAUUSD) broke above its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line0 today for the first time since June 23. It has done so by forming a Channel Up pattern since the rebound on the 1680 Support. That was a projection we clearly outlined on our long-term analysis at the start of July: Right now the next Resistance that buyers are targeting is the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), which has been intact since April 22. Most likely this will coincide with a test of the March 08 Lower Highs trend-line, where a break above will be a major bullish break-out and should start filling the higher Fibonacci retracement levels. If you haven't bought already and are looking for a confirmation signal, do so after the 1D RSI breaks above the June 10 Resistance. On the other hand, any rejection on the 1D MA50 or the March 08 Lower Highs trend-line, will be a sell signal (short-term) towards the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
1
WTI OIL testing the top of its 1 month Channel Down.WTI Oil (USOIL) broke today above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) again after a three day stay below it and is approaching the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Down it started after the June 14 High. On 4H RSI terms as well, it looks like the V-shaped Lower Highs test of June 29 - July 05 that ultimately led to a sharp sell-off towards the bottom of the Channel. As a result our strategy is to take this favorable R/R sell trade as long as the top of the Channel holds and target the Support (also the 1W MA50 (green trend-line)) at 91.00 and if we get a 1D candle closing below it, then target the multi-year Higher Lows trend-line (dotted line) at 80.00. This pattern is invalidated if the price breaks above the Channel Down and a buy signal will be waiting above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), targeting the March 2022 (war) Lower Highs trend-line at 120.00. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
XAGUSD At the bottom of the 2 year Channel DownSilver (XAGUSD) has been approaching the bottom of the long-term Channel Down that has been trading in since the February 01 2021 High. This makes it an automatic technical buy targeting first the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) in extension. This is depicted on the 1D RSI as well which is rising after breaking below the 30.00 oversold level. As long as the bottom (Lower Lows) trend-line holds, the price action is a buy. If it breaks, we may see the price drop as low as the -0.382 Fibonacci extension, which is the symmetrical move that happened during the March 2022 war extreme. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAGUSDLong
by TradingShot
1
Intensified recession mood as US bond yield curve remains invertEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔼 Almost three weeks of an inverted US bond yield curve has led investors all but confirm the recession, and sluggish GDP data on Thursday could be the nail in the coffin. The latest price to yield readings of the two- and ten-year Treasury notes were at 3.0081 and 2.785, respectively, which remained inverted since 6 July. Meanwhile, major currencies have retrieved lost ground against the greenback. EUR/USD has a minor uptick to 1.022, despite Monday's Germany IFO business climate index declining to 88.6, falling short of the 90.2 forecasts. GBP/USD returned above the 1.2000 level to close at 1.2042. AUD/USD rose and stabilized at 0.6950 level, reaching a closing price of 0.6953. The Australia Consumer Price Index will be available on Wednesday morning to reveal recent price level changes. USD/CAD slumped to 1.2848, after slowing at the 1.2850 level. The jury is still out on gold being the proper hedge option for the possible recession, gold futures retreated from a high of 1,733.3 to 1,719.1. WTI oil futures gained $2 to $96.7 a barrel, lower than expected gas demand in the ongoing US driving season has eased the supply shock impacts. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
XAUUSD is a buy again but act cautiouslyWe have been bearish on Gold (XAUUSD) since the March (war) peak and especially since the start of the month have been warning of a potential $100 collapse: This time however we have a number of indicators pushing the scale in favor of (short-term at least) buying again after 2 months. The chart on the left is on the 1D time-frame, while the one on the right is on the 4H. As we see on the 1D, the RSI started to find Support while trading within a Channel Down since April. This could be similar to the March 2021 bottom that made a short-term rebound to 1755. With 4H showing the price action since July 06 within a Channel Down but the 4H RSI on Higher Lows (bullish divergence), we are waiting for a break of the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line on the 4H chart, red on the 1D) to target 1755. A new break above 1760 constitutes a new bullish break-out signal towards the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) - 1D MA50 (red trend-line on the 4H chart, blue trend-line on the 1D chart) cluster. After that we have to evaluate based on the macro-economics at the time. There are the Fibonacci retracement levels involved for a longer-term approach. A rejection on the 4H MA50 or the 1760 Resistance, are both short-term sell signals. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
4
GOLD vs Fed Rate Hikes. How does the metal reacts historically?This is a cross-asset analysis of Gold (black trend-line) and the Effective Federal Funds Rate (green trend-line). Following the aggressive rate hiking by the Fed since the start of the year in an attempt to battle an out of hand rise on inflation, the idea of this study is to see how Gold historically reacts to raises on the Fed Interest Rates. The Red Shapes are periods when Gold declines while the Rate is rising. The Green Shapes represent periods when Gold and the Rate rise together while the Blue Shapes are when Gold stays neutral amid Rate rises. It is easy to see that the Red periods dominate the chart since 1980, which means that most of the times, when the Fed has risen the Rates, the precious metal is getting sold. 2022 so far seems no different as, excluding a March flash rise due to the Russian invasion in Ukraine, Gold has lost value since the start of the year and would probably be even lower if it weren't for the war. How low it can go is anybody's guess, but this chart shows that normally during rate hike periods, Gold loses much more value than it has currently done so. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
6
XAUUSD Flash crash to 1680 still possible.Gold (XAAUSD) broke this week below the 30.000 1D RSI for the first time since August 2021. It was only a week ago when we warned of this potential collapse based on the following 1M (monthly) structure: Now on this 1D time-frame analysis, we see that following the 1D Death Cross (when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line)), this isn't as unexpected and follows very closely the sell-off Gold had after the February 15 2021 1D Death Cross. As a result, even though the price has crossed below the 2 year buy level (1760), it is very likely to see one last flush to the 1680 Support before a new trend emerges. Especially considering the high volatility that today's Nonfarm Payrolls report (NFP) usually brings to the table. A consolidation next month within this zone is possible according to the 1M study, so consider the risks when proceeding to long-term buying. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
3
XAUUSD Holding the Support but still huge Resistance aboveGold (XAUUSD) is rising on the short-term after the July 01 Low, which was accomplished on a Support Zone holding since December 21 2021. On a 2 month horizon, this can be viewed as a Double Bottom on a Descending Triangle pattern. If last week's low breaks, the Support to be targeted is the 1720.50 September 29 Low. As you see there are numerous Lower Highs trend-lines involved, the price remains below the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line) since April 22, so it is best to apply a break-out buy strategy above the 1D MA50 and March LH with a short-term target the 1880 Resistance. Anything in between can only be scalped on the hourly/ minute time-frames. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
2
WEAT - Massive double top short opportunity using wheat etfDouble top Volume profile showing a lot of supply Seasonal data favors downside until mid September Plan your trades before executing the trade. How much are you willing to bet? Where will you get out? How will you lock in profits? Risk: 60 bps Profit Protection: 3-Day Trailing Stop Rule (Peter Brandt) You don't need to know what's going to happen next to make money ~Mark Douglas Anything can happen ~Mark Douglas
AMEX:WEATShort
by pangx623
2
XAUUSD could be on the brink of collapse.This is a chart that no-one in the Gold (XAUUSD) market (or as a matter of fact in the metals market) wants to see fulfilled as the 1M (monthly) time-frame presents a devastating scenario for the next 1 year at least. As you see this is based on a fractal taken from Gold's previous Cycle Top (September 2011). The 1M RSI particularly has been on a bearish trend since the July 2020 peak and is following almost precisely the peak pattern of Aug 2011. Right now it appears that the market could be after the September 2012 final High which started a violent 1 year correction below the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). See that both the candle action and the MA periods involved, align almost perfectly with the price right now trading below the 1D MA200 (yellow trend-line), having broken below the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) which on February 2013 was the trigger signal for the collapse. Being close to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, we may have the first Support involved but watch for a 1D MA200/ 1W MA100 Bearish Cross. That should be enough technically to hit at least the 1M MA50 in the coming months. That level has been holding since the start of Gold's mega rally in December 2018. Closing below that on a monthly basis would be devastating as the market can lose confidence completely and go on to test the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line), which surprisingly or not has been untouched for almost 20 years since August 2003! We have to note that the macro-environment is different now as 1) we are not getting out of a crisis/ recession as severe as the 2008/09 Subprime Mortgage crisis and 2) the Fed Interest Rate is not flat as in 2013 but is rising aggressively instead. As a result this technical fractal may not repeated because such fundamentals are strong enough to invalidate it. As a result a proper investor should keep an eye on the macro-economic developments (Fed, war, inflation) and be ready to close a technical position if it gets invalidated as quickly as possible. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by TradingShot
11
XAUUSD completed 2 months below the 1D MA50. What's next?Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up since the March 31 2021 Low, with the exception of two extremes, one Low (August 09 2021) caused by the NFP report and one High (March 08 2022) caused by the escalation of the Ukraine-Russia war. What's even more interesting is that Gold has been trading below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for 2 full-months (since April 25). In fact the latest rejection on June 13 has turned the price action neutral around the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). However as long as we remain above the Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Channel Up, there is a strong chance of getting a rally. Needless to say, a 1D candle close above the 1D MA50 is required. This sideways price action since the May 16 Low seems like a bottom formation that (in RSI terms also) resembles July-August 2021. This would create numerous buy low sell high trading opportunities before a rally to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Fundamentally as long as the macro condition on stocks stays that way, Gold takes the hit of they high US10Y. Keep an eye on a potential reversal there if you want to better time a break upwards. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
1