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Commoditysignals

XAUUSD Targets in case of further war escalation or deescalationGold has seen a rapid rise in recent weeks as investors seek safe haven shelter during the start of the Ukraine - Russia war. The result has been an aggressive detachment of the price from its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), where Gold has been trading around using it as a pivot since August 2021. There is a long-term Channel Up involved so, as long as Gold manages to make 1D candle closings within it (roughly below 2050), it is more likely to see a relief pull-back to the 1D MA50 again. On the other hand though, a consistent close above the top of the Channel Up could set course for a new All Time High (ATH) at 2200. As you see, this case is supported by the hyper aggressive May - August 2020 fractal. After a consolidation (blue ellipse pattern), the price broke to the upside and a Channel Up (green) fueled the final rapid rise to the ATH at the time. Right now, the 1D RSI seems to agree to the scenario that we've just breaking above the green Channel Up. Be prepared to trade according to the 1D candle closings. P.S. As an investor, it may be useful for you to trade based on the long-term pattern. Going back in my literature, see how Gold now broke above the Handle of its multi-year Cup & Handle pattern, potentially eyeing prices as close as $3000 within this decade: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
1
WTI OIL in need of a pull-back to the 1D MA50.One of the biggest (if not the biggest) winner of the current war between Russian and Ukraine, is Oil. Energy crises are almost a certainty in times of geopolitical conflicts involving major producers. Even though it is tough predicting technically WTI prices while war is ongoing, charting past fractals could give an idea to where, at least the next consolidation phase could be. The price action from November 2021 to today has been so far fairly similar to the sequence from November 2020 to March 2021. Both have gone on a slightly above +100% rise since their November lows. Right now the current 1D RSI sequence is exactly on the February 17 2021 RSI top, which prompted the price to enter a Channel Up that eventually led to a Top two weeks later. Based on this and of course assuming that the war is entering its final stage and will not escalate into a multi-month conflict involving more countries, WTI Oil may be entering an exhaustion channel that will eventually lead to a pull-back on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is what happened in March 2021. After that, and depending on how the geopolitical stage will look like, we will re-evaluate our thesis. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
5
NATURAL GAS Head & Shoulders of Donbas annexation vs 2014 CrimeaThis is Natural Gas on the 1D time-frame. The recent acts of war by Russia in Ukraine and the annexation of the Donbas region has created a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, which is typically a bearish reversal sequence forming market tops. This is similar to some extent with the pattern formed in February - March 2014 when Russia again committed acts of war against Ukraine by annexing the Crimea region. In both cases the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) was is Support. In March 2014, the situation was de-escalated by a Channel Down, following the peak (head) of the formation. At the moment NG may be forming a similar Channel Down. Could this be a sign of de-escalation and follow up of lower prices in the coming months for Natural Gas? P.S. Always keep in mind Natural Gas' multi-year cyclical behavior as I accurately displayed on the following chart: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NYMEX:NG1!
by TradingShot
1
WTI OIL at $100! Best short for the next 12 - 18 months!WTI Oil is among the major gainers of the current geopolitical conflict in Ukraine, hitting the $100 mark for the first time in roughly 8 years. Fundamentally this happens most of the times during periods of unrest or even worse war, such as the one that broke out yesterday. In times like these, it is very useful and most efficient to zoom out of short-term charts and look into the longer term picture. Long-term investors should be particularly interested in what this analysis reveals about WTI's outlook for the next 12 months. This is on a 1W time-frame and displays Oil's in Eras of 10 years (roughly). The current spans from the June 2014 Top until today and is very similar so far with the one from October 1990 to October 2000. Given the fundamentals of the two periods, with roughly similar geopolitical tensions in a 10 year span, it is no surprise that the Cycles' legs are identical. What's left of the current Cycle is leg (6), which represents a major correction back to the High Volatility Zone, which currently is within roughly the 0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels (as opposed to the 1990s which was within 0.5 - 0.618). This suggests that based on Oil's cyclical behavior, its systemic response should be a correction within roughly $53 - $43. It may seem, and surely is, a long way from the current $100 landmark but so was the $100 target we at Tradingshot suggested back in June 07 of last year when the price was still at $69.20, but clearly had broken above a 13 year Lower Highs trend-line: In our opinion, as this energy and geopolitical crisis will come to an end, WTI will turn into one of the best sell opportunities for the next 12-18 months. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
9
WTI Oil Turning Parabolic 82.50Since WTI Oil broke the former two Resistance levels (74.15 and 77.00), the price turned parabolic outside the Channel Up that dominated most of the price action in September. There seems to be a Buy/ Support Zone consisting of the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) and a Resistance Zone on the RSI Higher Highs trend-line. Technically those two pressure levels should provide the next dip buy and target. I've applied the Fibonacci Channel to assist in finding the target and as you see every Fib extension prices a Higher High (1.0, 1.5, 2.0). Naturally the 2.5 Fib extension is next, I project a Higher High around $82.50. ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
TVC:USOILLong
by Jbridgez
1
UKOIL short position selling from the 80sAs the new year begins, the markets are a little quiet but in the oil , markets seem a little confusing, Based on OPEC-JMMC Meetings we made our view on the oil market. "That's one way of looking at it OPEC plus seems confident that despite omicron spreading rapidly around the world and with cases rising it's not going to have that much of an impact on oil demand the group is expecting the oil market to be in a supply surplus in the first and second quarters" While the U.S airlines have canceled and delayed thousands of flights since 23 December 2021, The energy sector will depend on storage more than consumption in the coming period. OPEC plus is probably not almost certainly not going to actually add 400 000 barrels a day to the market because of supply problems incertain members in the oil club. I see OPEC crude oil production increasing since Jul 2020 : 24.82M bbl /d on Jul 2020 to be 28.87M bbl /d in Aug 2021 Making the oil production increase +16.31% in one year. The technical view you will see 83.00 -82.00 area as a supply area on the chart, also, 86.50 - 85.00 area is a strong historical supply area. The Market tend to sell from these areas, we may see some increase in the price shortly but in the volume indicator the average volume is in decline For the position I recommend a sell order from 83.00 -81.50 area Sell limit on 84.5- 86.5 in case the market still growing before retrograding Targets 1st target 77. 40 - 77.00 demand area 2nd target 68.40- 69.10 demand area The period of the Positon is more than 1 month up to 5 months (estimated ) This is a swing trade so be patient we estimate +16% to +20% profit for 5 months The news and numbers source coming from theoilsellers.com/ news.cn/ ycharts.com/
TVC:UKOILShort
by youssefallax
2
COPPER is one of the best investments on a 2 year basisInvestors looking for value long-term better have a look at Copper, which has been consolidating ever since its May 2021 All Time High (ATH). The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting all this time, indicating that the market has found a new long-term demand zone where buyers step in. The last time a similar demand level on the 1W MA50 took place was half-way through Copper's historic parabolic rally of the 2000s. In particular, in February 2004, the market made a similar High (red flag), then turned sideways into a +1 year accumulation period, when again the 1W MA50 was supporting. Eventually that demand level initiated the last and more aggressive part of this rally during 2005-2006. The 1W RSI sequences between the accumulation phases of today and 2004 are also identical. The 2006 rally peaked a little higher than the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. That should be a solid benchmark for long-term investors looking for value. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMEX:HG1!Long
by TradingShot
1
XAUUSD Time to start selling?Gold has been one of the major winners of the recent geopolitical crisis in Ukraine and while capitalizing also on the growing inflation, it is approaching the top of the Major Channel Up it's been trading in since the August 09 2021 bottom. As I explained on my previous XAUUSD analysis at the start of the month, the Higher High is technically on the 3.0 Fibonacci extension: On the current chart we can see that this 3.0 Fib metric for tops has been consistent for a 12 month basis as the same happened with the March 2021 Channel Up. Since we've already hit the 2.5 Fibonacci level, you should all have made respectable profit already from buying low in February, so now I turn my attention to build up sell positions. The previous two corrections from 3.0 Fib tops have pulled-back to at least the 1.0 Fib, which is now at 1814.50. A more conservative target is the 1D MA50, which is currently at 1822.90 and rising. As a conclusion, when investing/ trading Gold, I urge to keep always in mind the long-term technical trend and fundamentals. In January I published the following chart on the 1W time-frame, indicating that when Gold breaks above its 1.5 years Triangle, it resume the long-term bullish trend: A long-term bullish trend, which I analyzed in more detail yesterday, comparing it to the rising inflation. You may even go further back in my literature and see how Gold now broke above the Handle of its multi-year Cup & Handle pattern, potentially eyeing prices as close as $3000 within this decade: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
2
WTI OIL Head and Shoulders top on the Megaphone?I haven't updated my WTI Oil thesis since the start of the month when I first started calling for a potential market top and a stop to buying activity. Well this top may have been formed now as WTI has formed a Head and Shoulders pattern, right at the top (with the Head actually slightly above it) of the Megaphone pattern. Also that took place exactly on the Ichimoku Squeeze which was a marker for the prior Higher High of the Megaphone on October 25 2021. On top of all that, the 1D RSI got rejected, in fact made a Double Top rejection exactly on its 77.00 Resistance, which made the rejections of the two previous Higher Highs of the Megaphone on July 05 and October 25 2021. I am expecting the price to start pulling back this week or by next the latest (depending of course on the Ukraine conflict) and correct towards the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on the medium-term. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
3
GOLD eyeing $2800 long-term as inflation runs wildThis chart displays Gold (XAUUSD) along with the United States Inflation Rate (orange). The recent developments both geopolitically (Ukraine conflict) but more importantly macro-economically (inflation soaring), have put Gold back on track to its long-term bullish trend ever since it broke free of its 2012 - 2019 Bear Cycle. As the Inflation Rate shows, we are at the stage of the first major spike (ellipse pattern), which during the past 2 Gold Cycles was seen half-way through the long-term rally (small circles). In the previous Cycle, Gold peaked on its 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level from its prior All Time High. This Fib is currently at $2785. There's the target for long-term investors. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
2
XAUUSD Trading plan for the rest of the monthGold (XAUUSD) reached our 1875 target within the short-term Channel Up: The price didn't advance any further as it was rejected exactly on the 1877.50 Resistance (formed of the November 16 High) and is pulling back. In order to extend this bullish sentiment into the medium-term as well, Gold needs to close a 1D candle clearly above the 1877.50 Resistance. In that case the target will the 1935, which will make both a new Higher High on the long-term Channel Up (since the August 09 market bottom) while also reaching the 3.0 Fibonacci extension (such as the last Higher High run on November 16). Until it closes above 1877.50 though, the price is more likely to make a pull-back first towards at least (even slightly below) the 1D MA50 again in order to attract more buyers and form a new Higher Low on the short-term Channel Up. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
4
XAUUSD Big upside potentialGold is on a sustainable uptrend after holding the 1,780 Support following my buy update two weeks ago: This time I am putting things on a wider perspective and besides the two small Channel Up patterns, I've displayed the wider one that started with the August 09 2021 market bottom. As previously mentioned, the short-term target is 1875 (just below the 1877.50 Resistance and the 2.0 Fibonacci extension). When that broke during the previous short-term Channel Up, Gold reached both the 2.5 and 3.0 Fib extensions. Technically those are realistic long-term targets if the price breaks above the 1877.50 Resistance. P.S. Always keep in mind the multi-month outlook on the 1W time-frame: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
6
WTI OIL Potential Market Top. Time to sell again? Risk involved.Those who follow me for a long time here and on Reddit know how bullish I've been on WTI since the rescue packages arrived in 2020. Since March 08 2021, though a new and very well structured Megaphone pattern has emerged that has allowed us to trade both directions with high efficiency. Most recently, since November 30 to be exact, I've started with buy trades on the expected rally to the Higher Highs trend-line of this Megaphone: All targets during that leg have been accomplished and now WTI Oil is getting very close to the top of the pattern. Notice that during the previous rally of late August - late October 2021, this Top was projected by the Ichimoku squeeze. This squeeze is only 1 week away, so technically it is a valid strategy to start selling again. Now of course selling a long-term bullish market is a counter-trend move and involves higher risk than dip buying, so approach this strategy in accordance to your risk tolerance. Technically, targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level or at least the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) is a viable option. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
3
XAUUSD Channel Up + 1 extra Support towards 1875Gold is being sold aggressively following Powell's comments on the expected inflation yesterday, despite being considered a counter-inflation asset. Technically that sell-off can be attributed to the chart I posted 1 week ago on the selling pressure that the top of the long-term Triangle applies: On the shorter term and the 1D time-frame, Gold has formed a very structured Channel Up. That is similar to the pattern of late September - October, which eventually broke to the upside and reached as high as the 3.0 Fibonacci extension. In case of a breach there is a last Support involved, which on November 03 gave the final bottom before the rally. We have set a medium-term target of 1875 (just below the next Resistance) for the next Higher High. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
15
NATURAL GAS 1D Death Cross ahead. Lower Lows expected.It was last September (2021) where I first starting calling for a market top on Natural Gas, which at the time seemed odd to the majority of the energy market participants as it was coming off a very aggressive 6 month rally. It wasn't odd though based on NG's long-term, multi-year cyclical behavior as I accurately displayed on the following chart: Back to today, and the 1D time-frame, the price is about to form a 1D Death Cross, which happens when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and is considered to be a bearish formation. The last 1D Death Cross after a Cycle Top was formed on February 21 2019. It was on that period that NG made a new Low and gradually entered a structured bearish pattern on Lower Lows (Channel Down ish), with the 1D MA50 acting as Resistance. Check also the MACD indicator which is virtually identical between those two periods. My long-term targets are the 1.236, 1.5 and 1.618 Fibonacci extensions successively, which were the Lower Lows targets of the 2019 pattern. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by TradingShot
2
XAUUSD Major long-term break-out ahead.Gold eventually followed the pattern presented on my last analysis (see chart below) and after completing the Bull Flag, it reversed and broke above the 1834 Resistance: The immediate target on the short-term is 1875 (Resistance at 1877.50). However, this latest development brings us ahead of a potential huge long-term break-out. Today's chart is on the 1W time-frame, where this possibility can be more effectively presented. As you see, XAUUSD has been trading within a Triangle pattern of Lower Highs and Higher Lows since late August 2020. No 1W candle has closed above or below this structure, not even the weekly candle of August 09 2021 which started will a collapse but quickly recovered and closed well above the Higher Lows of the Triangle. This indicates that the market has been ranging and investors have been waiting in anticipation of a longer term break-out. A rejection on the Lower Highs trend-line should pull the price back below 1800 marginally. A 1W candle close above the Lower Highs could target the 1915 High of the May 31 2021 1W candle, which interestingly enough is on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. If you are a long-term trader, use this pattern to your advantage. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
6
WTI OIL is on track for the October $85.00 high.We have been following this bullish sequence on WTI Oil closely since the December 02 2021 bottom and so far is following our projection to a great extent: As you see, the most recent pull-back (red arrow) was successfully made on the yellow Lower Highs trend-line and after the price recovered, it re-tested (green arrow) the line as a Support, which is so far giving a very strong green 1D candle today. As explained on my previous analyses, this is following the late August - late October bullish wave sequence to the Higher Highs trend-line of the long-term pattern. You don't need to target all the way to the Higher Highs trend-line, the previous high of $85.00 is good enough to take profit as we've been mentioning since December. However if you wish to seek more risk, an potential indicator that may signal the next top, is the Ichimoku Cloud. During the last bullish wave of August - October, the market top was formed exactly on the Ichimoku squeeze. Currently the new squeeze is on February 10. Can this mean that we still have another month of uptrend? Possibly but always manage the risk carefully especially in the energy sector. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
5
GOLD forming a symmetrical November bullish break-out pattern.As you see Gold spot prices (XAUUSD) broke below their dominant Channel Up pattern of December but this didn't turn out to be a bearish signal as the very same bullish (break-out) flag was formed in October's Channel Up. The Bull Flag (black channel) eventually recovered the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and broke upwards, above the 1834 Symmetrical Resistance and made a 1877.50 top. Right now Gold is above the 4H MA50, attempting that important break-out test. We expect 1875 at least within January. A 3.0 Fibonacci extension can be used as target later after 1D closes a candle above the Resistance. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
5
XAUUSD hit the 4H MA200. Buy opportunity.Gold experienced strong selling yesterday on the 4H time-frame, which technically was the result of the Channel Up making a Higher High. So far the pull-back has stopped on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and as it holds, at the same time the RSI bounced on its 1 month Support Zone. This creates buy conditions again. Technically it appears to be forming a similar pattern to the October Channel Up, which resulted in a very bullish break-out rally in November. As such, my immediate target is the next Resistance (1877.50) and in extension, if a 1D candle closes above it, then the 3.0 Fibonacci extension (1938.50). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
3
WTI OIL The important 1D MA50 testWell I've been tracking and trading the pattern you see on this chart for over a month and the very last formations have played out particularly well: Right now WTI is ahead of the first important test of this uptrend, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) which is currently posing as a Resistance. If that breaks, we have a strong case of a bullish continuation. However, this the current wave is repeating that of August - September quite closely, the (yellow) Lower Highs trend-line will be critical as well, and what I am particularly looking as confirmation is a rejection there, hold on the 1D MA50 and the red Ichimoku area and then a strong bullish break-out. The RSI is so far on course for its Symmetrical Resistance of those Lower Highs. If that breaks, our next target will be $85.00. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
XAUUSD Emerging Golden Cross on 4HGold appears to have priced the bottom two weeks ago on the medium-term Channel Up on the 4H time-frame and is now ready to break upwards for a new Higher High. The confirmation signal for this rise could be the 4H Golden Cross (when the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 4h MA200 (orange trend-line). This is technically a very bullish formation. As shown on the chart, last time this pattern emerged was on October 20. It was when the price of XAUUSD was coming off a Higher Low (bottom) and the Ichimoku Cloud has just turned green again. This is the very same sequence we see today. The price is above the Ichimoku and is about to form a Golden Cross. Assuming the Higher Highs are symmetrical then the next one should be on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension as well, which is currently around 1920. Before that however, the price has to overcome the 1876 Symmetrical Resistance, which rejected the uptrend recently on November 16. That is our medium-term target. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
3