GOLD Cup and Handle showing $2300 and $3050 long-termThis doesn't need any complicated description. Long-term Gold holders can feel very secure as the giant Cup & Handle that has been formed on the 1M chart, is almost complete and is close to breaking above the Handle.
The next natural technical targets are the 1.786 Fibonacci extension ($2300) and the 2.0 Fib extension ($3050).
Thoughts?
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Commoditysignals
WTI OIL Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price entered the 4H MA50 (blue) - 4H MA100 (green) range, which has been a Buy Zone before.
Target: 67.50 (just below the 2 month Resistance). With a little more risk you may pursue the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, depending on where the price bottoms now.
Most recent WTI signals:
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GOLD broke above the 1D MA100. Major bullish break-out signal.As mentioned on a series of posts, Gold has been trading within a Channel Up since April:
This Channel had one major barrier before the short-term bullish sentiment made the leap to the long-term as well, and that was the 1D MA100 (yellow trend-line). The current chart is on the 4H time-frame for better illustration, so be advised that the blue line is the 4H MA50 while the green line is the 4H MA100.
So as you see XAUUSD closed its first 4H candle above the 1D MA100. The trend-line has also been hit both on May 04 and 03 but never had a 4H candle closing above it. So today marked the first time this happens since January 08!
So what happens now? Well if the Channel Up is sustained, then every dip within the 4H MA50 - 4H MA100 Zone is a buy opportunity targeting the Lower Highs of the January - February downtrend: Feb 23 = 1816.50, Feb 10 = 1855.50 and Jan 29 - 1876.00.
Pay attention to the 4H RSI which has a Resistance Zone that marks price tops within the Channel Up fairly accurately.
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GOLD 2021 vs 2020This is a comparison of XAUUSD (Gold) during March/ April / May 2021 and May/ June/ July 2020. As you see there are a few strong similarities:
* Both formed a Double Bottom on their start.
* A Golden Cross was then formed on the 4H time-frame.
* This gave way to a Channel Up (blue).
* The 4H MACD at the start of the Channel Up until now is virtually identical.
Do you think history will repeat itself and push Gold higher inside the Channel Up and then even aggressively outside it on a Parabolic Rise?
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GOLD Successful test of 1760 as Support. Bullish.Pattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price successfully tested the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) and the 1760 level (was formerly the Resistance for 1.5 month) as Support. The 4H MACD made a Bullish Cross.
Target: 1795 short-term (right below the 1D MA100 (yellow trend-line), which is holding as Resistance since January 08) and 1830 medium-term (right below the projection of the 1W MA50 (red trend-line).
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WTI OIL Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price rebounded on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel and is supported by the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), which has been the Support on the November 2020 - February 2021 uptrend.
Target: 66.00 (just below the 66.40 Resistance).
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WTI OIL First 4H Golden Cross since November!WTI Crude Oil has just formed a Golden Cross on the 4H chart (MA50 (blue trend-line) crossing above the MA200 (orange trend-line)), the first since November 12, 2020. The price action since March 12 is quite similar to late October - early November. After the Death Cross on October 27, 2020, a bottom was formed a few days later. Once the Golden Cross was formed on November 12, 2020, the very aggressive rally of December - March was initiated. We are on a similar situation right now. The March 26 Death Cross may have priced the Bottom and if so, then today's Golden Cross may kick-start a new rally. I expect a value above $70.00 before June.
Most recent WTI signal:
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NATURAL GAS 1st Higher High since mid February. Buy.Pattern: Triangle on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price has rebounded on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and formed the 1st Higher High since February 17. After a Higher High, a rally was always followed since July 2020.
Target: 3.140 (the 1.618 Fibonacci extension ).
Most recent signal on NG:
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COPPER Buy SignalPattern: Fibonacci Channel on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price rebounded on the 1D MA50.
Target: The 1.5 Fibonacci extension level (low-risk) or the 2.0 Fibonacci level (high-risk).
Previous COPPER signal:
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SILVER (XAGUSD) Buy signal towards the August HighPattern: Ascending Triangle on 1W.
Signal: Buy as the price rebounded right before testing the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) with the RSI trading sideways supporting trading within the Triangle.
Target: 27.700 short-term (the 1.382 Fib extension) and 29.700 (August High).
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PLATINUM (XPTUSD) starting a long-term rallyPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price has been consolidating near the Channel's Higher Lows trend-line in a manner similar to November 2020. Identical MACD sequences also.
Target: 1330 (current Resistance on 1D) medium-term and 1550 (Higher Highs trend-line of the Channel Up) long-term.
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GOLD broke the 1760 and 1D MA50 for the 1st time since February!Finally the precious metal has broken above the 1760 Resistance which has been holding since February 26. The reason behind it wasn't the DXY or the rise on stocks but the strong daily sell-off on the US10Y, which broke below its own 4H MA200 for the first time since November! Whether that is enough to kickstart a correction, thus a sustainable uptrend on Gold on the long-term (month-to-month basis) it remains to be seen.
On my latest XAUUSD (see chart below), I focused on how the (at the time) emerging Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame was the key in an uptrend to 1800/ 1825 as it had many similarities with the December 2020 price action.
On the current study I take this on the 1D time-frame, which also shows many similarities both on the RSI and MACD. Another break-through is that today the price not only broke the 1760 Resistance but also the 1D MA50 for the first time since February 02.
Based on the December 2020 fractal, 1800 is a reasonable level to target as it is on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which was the first stop on the December (21st) uptrend. 1825 is eyed too as it is where the 1W MA50 is projected to be (and as mentioned on the previous idea is the pivot on the long-term).
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WTI OIL turned bullish againPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy (A) after a pull-back on the 4H MA50/ Higher Lows trend-line, or (B) if Resistance 2 breaks first.
Target: (A) 66.45 (Resistance 2), (B) 69.00.
Most recent WTI idea projecting that rally:
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URANIUM Time to go on a big buy?The Uranium ETF has sustained an uptrend since March 2020, with is rise resembling other bullish stock markets. Perhaps the most important development is the formation of the Golden Cross (MA50 crossing above the MA200) on the 1W time-frame. The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has been the Resistance throughout its multi-year downtrend. Can it now provide Support for a multi-year uptrend?
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GOLD First 4H Golden Cross since December! Bullish or not?Gold reached yesterday the 1760 Resistance which is a very critical level as it may currently be the Resistance (since March 01) but is a Pivot as it was formerly a Support (two contacts: November 30, 2020 and February 18, 2021).
It is no surprise that the price got rejected there as besides the 1760 Resistance, it also touched the 1D MA50 (light blue trend-line), so short-term buyers naturally booked profits. What happens on the medium/ long-term though?
Well the most important development is the emerging (will have formed by Monday) Golden Cross on the 4H chart. Last time we had the MA50 (dark blue trend-line) crossing above the MA200 (orange trend-line) was in December 22, 2020). What followed then was an aggressive rally to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. Assuming the same pattern is replicated, then medium/ long-term traders may target 1800 (just below the 1.618 Fib ext) and 1825 (roughly where the 1W MA50 (yellow trend-line) will be at the time). Why the 1W MA50 is important? Because it is a Pivot as well, signaling trend changes on the long-term. As long as Gold trades below it, the trend remains bearish, above it we have a trend shift. Notice how the price found Support there twice (November 30, 2020 and January 18, 2021) and now has turned into the long-term Resistance that may reject the price.
BONUS MATERIAL:
Most recent Gold idea:
Long-term outlook:
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WTI OIL Emerging 4H MA50/100 Golden Cross. Rally ahead?Simple fractal comparison on WTI as the price is consolidating since the March 23 low and is approaching the Higher Lows trend-line that started on December 01.
As you see the current price action is quite similar to the late October - early November one. After the 4H MA50 crossed below the 4H MA100, a bottom was formed a few days later. Once the two crossed again on a Golden Cross this time, the very aggressive rally of December - March was initiated. We are on a similar situation right now. Has the March 23 MA50/100 Death Cross priced the Bottom? And if yes will an emerging MA50/100 Golden Cross kick-start a rally?
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WTI OIL should avoid this fractal at all costs.I don't call it Fractal of Doom for nothing. As you see WTI Oil hit the 2 year Resistance trend-line (red zone) that was first created on the April 23, 2019 High, and got strongly rejected on March 08, 2021. This is a Triple Top (counting the Jan 08, 2020 almost hit). A common characteristic of all three rejections is that after the initial drop, the price consolidated (orange rectangle) around on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). On the first 2 occasions, a bigger fall took place after this consolidation. Will it happen again this time?
It is worth pointing out also the important of the 50.00 - 51.00 zone (blue) as a long-term Support. It didn't only hold from January 2019 to January 2020 (broke due to the COVID pandemic) but also on January 2021. If the bigger fractal fall comes after the current consolidation, will that (blue) Support Zone hold again and cause another lengthy sideways period between this and the (red) Resistance?
I am really interested to read your opinions on it.
P.S. See the RSI similarities
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GOLD The peculiar 4H MA50/100 Cross divergenceToday Gold is on a strong rebound as it held the 1675.50 Support made from the March 08 Low. But the reason for this short post is to bring forward the counter signal that the MA50/ 100 Cross give on the 4H time-frame.
As you see on the chart since January 14 the MA50 (blue trend-line) and the MA100 (green trend-line) on the 4H time-frame have crossed paths 4 times:
* On Jan 14 we had a Death Cross, which is theoretically bearish but 6 days later the price ended higher instead making a Higher High.
* On Jan 24 we had a Golden Cross, which is theoretically bullish but 6 days later the price ended lower instead making a Lower Low.
* On March 19 we had a Golden Cross, but again 11 days later the price ended lower instead making a Lower Low.
* Today (March 31) we had a Death Cross, but again the price is on a strong rise. Will that make a Higher High and if so will it be below the 1755.50 Resistance?
Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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GOLD aims at $1850. Similarities with December 2020.This is a fractal comparison on XAUUSD between the current sequence and that of December 2020.
At the moment Gold is trading on top of the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) using it as a Support and around the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) using it as a Pivot. It still hasn't broken above neither the Symmetrical Pressure level (former Support, currently Resistance) of 1760 or the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Technically once those break, the trend switches from neutral to bullish.
Almost the same sequence was seen back in December. After the market Bottom of Nov 30, Gold rose and after it broke the 4H MA100, a Bullish Cross followed (4H MA50 crossing above the 4H MA100). The difference is that the 4H MA200 got hit then (and the Symmetrical Pressure level broke) before the Bullish Cross, whilst today it hasn't. Then the 4H MA100 held as Support and the price rose aggressively to complete a +11% rise in total.
Another common characteristic of the two fractals that stands out is the fact that both made a Bottom at around -4.60% from the Symmetrical Pressure level.
The January 06, 2021 High was roughly over the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. If approximately the same price action is followed, then Gold can top anywhere within 1860-1870, so it makes sense to have a bullish target slightly below (1850). That would still be below the Lower Highs trend-line that started on the August 06 2020 market Top, which until it breaks, we can't confirm a long-term bullish reversal.
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WTI OIL Rebound on the 1D MA50Pattern: Fibonacci Channel on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price hit the 1D MA50 (green dotted line) and rebounded while the 4H MACD made a Bullish Cross.
Target: 69.00 (the 2.0 Fib extension) and 72.00 (the 2.5 Fib extension).
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XAUUSD Bullish momentum on MA break-outPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the emergence of this Channel happened while the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) broke for the first time since February 11.
Target: The 1760 Symmetrical Pressure level (former Support, current Resistance) and if you seek more risk, the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
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NATURAL GAS Buy SignalPattern: Triangle on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price has found support just above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and within the 8-month Higher Lows Zone (green). The RSI also hit its own Support Zone.
Target: 3.140 (the 1.618 Fibonacci extension).
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