URANIUM is filling the gaps on a long-term bullish trendThis is an update to my April 2021 idea on the Uranium ETF:
As you see, the price rallied following March's Golden Cross on the 1W chart and so far the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has been holding as Support (which was my biggest concern back then), offering a great dip buy opportunity on August 16.
What's even more interesting is that the asset has been filling gap after gap on the Lower Highs of last decade's bear trend. The next one is at 39.00. Be ready to take advantage of the next 1W MA50 dip.
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Commoditysignals
PLATINUM may be on the verge of a strong year-end rally!XPTUSD (Platinum) has had a strong rebound last week that started exactly on the Higher Lows trend-line of June 2020. The commodity may be repeating the 2020 pattern that lead to a massive end-of-year rally.
However it needs to get past (break and close a 1D candle above it) the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As you see since XPTUSD hasn't closed a 1D candle above it since May 18 2021 with the rejections on it being brutal every time. In 2020 once it closed above it, the price soon started a strong rally. Notice how the RSI is on Higher Lows now in similar fashion as in 2020.
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PALLADIUM Best long-term buy opportunity.Palladium (XPDUSD) has been trading within a Fibonacci Channel and is turning into one of the best long-term investments as the price is approaching the MA200 (orange trend-line) on the 1W time-frame. This level has been in support ever since XPD broke parabolically to the upside (January 2017). At the same time, it happens to be resting exactly at the bottom of the Channel (Fib 0). Another indicator in support of a rebound is the CCI which is the nearest it's been to the June 2015 Support level.
As you see on this long-term chart, the potential growth of Palladium is immense as a break above the May High can trigger a parabolic rally towards the 3.0 Fibonacci extension (that happened with Fib 1.0 to Fib 2.0 in 2020. We are adding Palladium to our long-term portfolio.
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WTI OIL Inverse Head and ShouldersLast time I made a post on WTI Oil the price was still struggling to get past both a very strong Lower Highs trend-line and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line on the left chart):
Well the price managed to break and close above both and rallied. The rejection though near the 74.15 Resistance has formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S). Look how the Pivot Zone mentioned on the previous analysis is almost perfectly matched as the Shoulder line. Naturally, we should be expecting an initial pull-back and since the IH&S is a bullish reversal pattern, break above the 74.15 afterwards.
However we need to consider an earlier potential Support and that's the 1D MA50 which, as mentioned, was previously the Resistance since August 03. That fits well the pattern on the right side (which is on the 4H time-frame) which is a Channel Up whose Higher Lows trend-line limit is currently roughly where the 1D MA50 is.
Short-term target if the Pivot Zone holds is the 74.15 Resistance (1). Long-term target is the 77.00 Resistance (2). A candle close below the Pivot Zone temporarily sets this back to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line on the left chart).
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COPPER best time to buy now. 2 year rally ahead.This is COPPER on the 1W time-frame. I've made this idea to show to long-term investors why the metal is currently on the most optimal buy levels ahead of a two-year rally.
As you see, the price has been rising since the August pull-back. Not only is it posting a recovery but the August low happened almost on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the markets major Support since the June 2020 bullish break-out.
The pattern bears strong resemblance with the 2004 fractal. As you see both Cycles made a Double Bottom, which initiated the rally, a 1W Golden Cross was formed along the way and when the price hit the Resistance of the previous Cycle High, it made the first substantial correction/ pull-back. In both cases, the 1W MA50 held and then a 1 year Channel Up followed supported by the 1W MA50, which eventually paved the way for the final parabolic rally. The RSI sequences are also quite similar.
It is obvious the Copper is replicating the previous Bull Cycle and since the 1W MA50 held so emphatically, it is most likely the most optimal level to buy on the long-term.
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WTI OIL analysis on the 1D and 4H time-framesLast time I analyzed WTI Oil on August 24, I made it clear that it was trading within a long-term Triangle and until it broke, its price action would be sideways:
I stressed out the importance of the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Lower Highs trend-line of that Triangle. Well as you see on the chart, WTI Oil got rejected exactly on that Resistance level twice and has been pulling-back since. Until the price closes a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, the bias are towards the Pivot Zone. A 1D closing below it, sees the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as target, which last time held (August 20-23). That is on the left chart which is on the 1D time-frame.
On the 4H time-frame (right chart), a Channel Up has been formed, which naturally is limited by the Lower Highs trend-line (and 1D MA50) of the Triangle. The previous 4H candle, even though it broke below the Channel Up, it managed to close inside it, so as long as we close within the pattern, the short-term target is 71.50. On the long-term, as shown on the 1D chart, it is the 74.15 Resistance.
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XAUUSD Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price hit the bottom of the Channel Up and is close to the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) which is a strong Support.
Target: 1845 (Higher High of the Channel Up and the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. All previous 3 Higher Highs have been around the 1.5 Fib extension).
Most recent XAUUSD signal:
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XAUUSD broke above the 1W MA50 for the 1st time since June!My most recent Gold signal was on the short-term time-frame of 4H:
This time we have a significant technical development on long-term and I've moved us to the 1W time-frame where XAUUSD just broke above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the June 14 weekly candle. Closing the week above this level should be enough to restore the bullish sentiment on the long-term as the 1W MA50 acted as a Resistance on four straight weekly candles in July and August.
Naturally if the price makes that weekly closing, the target should be the 1,915 High of May, which just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. As you see those levels have been acting quite accurately as Resistance/ Support levels since the August 2020 market top.
Note: The 1W MACD made a Bullish Cross. Last time that happened (April 26 candle), a very strong rally followed.
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XAUUSD Golden Cross formed on 4HPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price rebounded near the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and even though there is still room within the Channel for one last low, the 4H Golden Cross that was formed may bring higher prices without it.
Target: 1829 (just below the 1.236 Fibonacci retracement level and the 1832 - 1834 Resistance Zone).
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WTI OIL had the biggest weekly rise since May 31 2020!WTI Crude Oil posted last week the strongest 1W candle (+10.30%) since May 31 2020 (+11.44%). What can this possibly mean for future prices? Alone nothing. But as you see, last week's bounce came after a 1W RSI touch on the 43.50 Support which has been holding since May 2020 as well. That makes the bullish case stronger but based on the September - October 2020 fractal (right before the U.S. elections) we may see one last pull-back before a new rally. As seen on the chart, that pull-back may find Support on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). As long as this holds, the trend will remain bullish, so for a swing trader, the best course of action would be to scale with a buy now and if the price pulls back, add another closer to the 1W MA50.
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WTI OIL aiming at the 1D MA50Pattern: Triangle on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price (a) made a strong rebound on the Higher Lows trend-line, (b) near the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and (c) broke above the Pivot Zone.
Target: The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
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XAUUSD They symmetrical harmony of Fibonacci levelsIn my most recent Gold idea I introduced the importance of the Fibonacci retracement levels as targets following the August 08 flash crash of the Nonfarm Payrolls:
As you see since then, the Fibs have acted very well as Resistance levels which on the following pull-backs acted as Supports. As the 0.786 Fib is currently holding, the only gap left to be filled is the 1.0 Fib at 1832.
It is however the most difficult Fib target to fill as there are two very important barriers: first the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line on the right top chart) at 1,810.30 and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line on the right bottom chart) at 1,825.93, which is holding since June 16.
A positive sign though is the fact that yesterday XAUUSD posted the first 1D candle closing above the 1D MA50 since June 15.
Long-term view:
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XAUUSD Bullish divergence and Inverse H&S lead to break-outThis is a short-term update to my recent long-term idea:
As you see on the left chart, Gold broke above the Channel Down and the early signal to this break-out was the 4H RSI which was you see was on a Bullish Divergence as while the price was in a Channel Down, the RSI was in a Channel Up. So far the Fibonacci retracement levels from the August 04 Top to the August 08 bottom play an important role as the 0.5 and 0.382 have so far acted as Resistance levels, while the 0.236 Fib as a Support. Naturally if the 0.5 Fib level break, the next Resistance could be seen on the 0.618 retracement level, where the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) is headed to.
On the right chart (which is on the 1H time-frame) we see the other short-term pattern that caused XAUUSD to find Support. As you see it is on an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) which is a pattern typically seen on bullish reversals. The Resistance is at 1,752.60, which is exactly where the 1H MA200 (green trend-line) is. If it breaks, then the short-term price action gains a Support level on the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line) and technically sets eyes on the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line) ehich is currently at 1783 but at the time of a potential contact may be closer to 1775, i.e. roughly where the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (that we talked about above) is.
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WTI OIL Double bottom at $65?WTI Oil has been trading within a Channel Up on the 1D time-frame since March. Despite the relative weakness we saw in July and so far in August, yesterday the price held on the 65.00 level , which if it holds will be a Double Bottom event.
This is not a formation that WTI Crude Oil is unfamiliar with, as on April 05 it made the very same Double Bottom while being on a corrective wave under the pressure of Lower Highs. Once those broke, the price went on to post Higher Highs within the 1.618 - 1.786 Fibonacci extensions. With the RSI on a Higher Lows much like in April, we expect to see new Highs once the Lower Highs trend-line breaks. Until then you may target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
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XAGUSD Multi-decade Cup & Handle?Silver pulled back on Friday and today along with most major commodities due to the USD showing strength on the incredible Nonfarm Payrolls numbers. All this short-term price action though can be viewed as nothing but noise on one pattern that has been developing since 1980 and may be close to completion.
I am using the very rare in financial analysis yearly time-frame where each candle represents 1 year. As you see since 1980, XAG has been forming a giant Cup & Handle (C&H) pattern. This formation tends to break aggressively to the upside once completed.
Two elements play a key role here:
* The 31.000 level and
* The 1Y MA50 (blue trend-line).
As you see during the formation of this pattern, Silver may have made its All Time High (and Double Top assuming 1980 was very close) at $50 but it is the $31 level that plays a critical part on a yearly basis as Silver has never closed a year above it even though it broke it four times.
At the same time during the formation of the C&H, the price never closed below the 1Y MA50 (blue trend-line) and only had marginal wick breaks (6 times), which makes this the strongest Support. What makes the case of this pattern even stronger is that last year also almost bounced off the 1Y MA50.
Investors should therefore keep an eye on the 31.000 level. If we manage to close this year (or any as a matter of fact) above it, then it will be a major first bullish sign that the Cup and Handle is close to being completed and that new ATH will follow.
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XAUUSD is approaching the 2018 bullish trend-line.The Nonfarm Payrolls (much) better than expected numbers delivered a major blow to Gold last Friday, which was extended today into one of the most violent daily sessions of the past 2 years (along with August 12 2020 and March 16 2020), that reached the March 2021 lows, which currently acts as the Support Zone. In fact the 1675.50 - 1670 Support Zone has been holding since April 2020, right after Gold recovered from the March 2020 COVID melt-down.
The key point of today's post though is the fact that the price is now closer than ever to the August 2018 bullish (Higher Lows) trend-line that started Gold's hyper bull trend. If the Support Zone holds, then it will be a Triple Bottom and one can't help but to see similarities with the March 2020 one.
Also the 1D RSI just broke the 30.000 level which is where a Buy Signal emerges even in this 12 month down-trend. During the hyper uptrend, the Fibonacci extension played a major role in defining Higher Highs but so do during this 12 month correction. On top of that we see a clear Lower Highs zone (dashed lines). Assuming its a Triple Bottom, then a test of that Lower Highs zone is the most realistic case for buyers until broken. If the Support Zone breaks, investors should start realizing that despite the inflationary pressures, Gold may be entering a new multi-year Bear Cycle.
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XAGUSD approaching the 9 month SupportSilver has been printing Lower Lows since the May 18 High and is now close to the 23.750 Support, which has been holding since December 15, 2020.
If the 1D MA50 Death Cross is avoided (may have a March 2020 effect if it doesn't), then we can expect the Support to hold and rebound back to the Lower Highs trend-line. In that case, the target is 26.700 (just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level).
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GOLD is it close to entering a new 6 year Bear Cycle?Gold has been quite bearish lately as it failed to continue its May momentum and recover with a Higher High. In fact since the June dip, it failed to break the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) on three separate weekly attempts.
This weakness heavily draws comparisons with the previous blow-off top and subsequent consolidation from August 2011 to April 2013, before it eventually led into a 6 year Bear Cycle.
As you see on the chart, the two fractals (Fractal A = 2011-2013 and Fractal B = 2020-date) are quite identical. The key parameters on both are the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and the 1W MA250 (red dotted trend-line).
Fractal A took 75 weeks before the price broke and closed below the 1W MA100, which until then it has been the long-term Support. The 1W MA50/100 Bearish Cross was formed just outside this 75 week sequence and only a few weeks after it led to a test of the 1W MA250.
Fractal B has so far the 1W MA100 in Support but for the first time the 1W MA50 is turning lower so aggressively. I have applied the time Fib Zones on the 75 week model and as you see that is fairly symmetrical to the August 2012 period of Fractal A when the 1W MA50 started to roll lower just after the 0.618 time Fib. On Fractal B it appears we are on the same spot.
What happened after the roll on Fractal A was one last rally above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (vertical) and then the slow but steady decline that broke below the 1W MA100. Does that mean that Gold has currently one last rally to give? We can't be sure as the May 2021 High almost hit the 0.618 Fib retracement level and was rejected, which could be the equivalent of Fractal A's 3rd fake-out break of the 0.618.
What do you think of this Cyclical comparison? Is this a possibility for you?
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WTI OIL Golden Cross 1W. One last top before major correction?Last week the Golden Cross (when the MA50 crosses over the MA200) on the 1W time-frame for WTI Oil went unnoticed. Last time we had a 1W Golden Cross was way back in April 2018. This raises an interesting fractal comparison.
As you see the price action when the Golden Cross happens is within a Channel Up both now then in 2018. Interestingly enough, when the Channel Up pattern started on both occasions, the RSI started printing Lower Highs, meaning it was on a Bearish Divergence. In 2018 that ultimately led to a blow-off top. Both sequences hit the $77.00 as their Highs. Does that fractal comparison indicate that WTI has one last dead-cat bounce to make before a major correction? What do you think?
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XAUUSD Sideways until one of those lines breaksPattern: Rectangle on 4H.
Signal: Scalping as long as the Resistance and Support zones break. (A) Buy if the Resistance breaks, (B) Sell if the Support breaks.
Target: (A) 1870 (just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension), (B) 1760 (just above the 1750 1D Support).
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WTI OIL needs to break this Lower Highs trend-linePattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy if the Lower Highs trend-line breaks or if the MACD forms a Bullish Cross.
Target: 80.00 (below the 1.5 Fibonacci extension).
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XAUUSD Head and Shoulders on 4H Trading PlanPattern: Head and Shoulders on 4H.
Signal: (A) Bullish if the Lower Highs trend-line breaks, (B) Bearish if the Support Zone breaks.
Target: (A) The Higher Highs trend-line, (B) The Lower Support.
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XAUUSD Close to a 4H Golden CrossGold is close to forming a Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame. That is when the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the long-term trend turns bullish.
In the last two 4H Golden Cross formations, the price rose to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level after the Cross was made as you see on the chart. It is also interesting to add that at the time of the Golden Cross, the 1D RSI has been roughly at the same level (around 50.000).
If the 4H Golden Cross is formed now at around 1815.50, then the 2.0 Fib Target will be at 1880. Is this fractal consistent enough to trade in your opinion?
P.S. Bonus Material/ Gold on perfect symmetry:
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