WTI OIL Buy SignalPattern: Fibonacci Channel on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price just hit the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). The region within the 4H MA50 and 4H MA100 (green trend-line) has been the most optimal buy level since November. Also the RSI is very close to its Support Zone.
Target: 69.00 (just below the 2.5 Fibonacci extension) and 72.00 (just below the 3.0 Fibonacci extension).
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Commoditysignals
GOLD Has it bottomed?The answer to this is not easy but at least on the short-term it appears it has. An early warning signal was the RSI Bullish Divergence as I mentioned on the March 04 idea shown below:
The biggest development is that Gold made its first Higher High today since February 23. It also broke the more recent March 01 Lower Highs trend-line.
However it has just met its biggest obstacle, a patter that is holding since January 20. That is the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). As you see since that date, every time the price met the 4H MA50 after a new Low, it marginally broke above it, consolidated and then broke down below only to make a new Low. See how the RSI Resistance (65.000) has always marked the peak/ rejection point. So on the medium-term we don't yet have a clear signal to buy.
That should only come if the 1760 level breaks. Why is that so important? Because it is a Symmetrical Pressure level as it has been the Support since November 30, which on March 01 turned into a Resistance.
On the long-term though the picture is clearer as I've mentioned on my February 27 idea:
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WTI OIL pull-back needed for next Higher HighPattern: Bullish megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Buy once the price touches the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) again.
Target: $69.00 (right below the 2.5 Fibonacci extension and on the Higher Highs trend-line of the Megaphone).
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XAUUSD The RSI's rare Bullish DivergenceDespite Gold's recent and continuous downfall, there is a unique technical occurrence that I spotted and have to bring forward for short-term consideration.
As you see on the chart, since November 24, 2020, every time XAUUSD's price is on Lower Highs (red), while the RSI is on Higher Lows (green), i.e. a Bullish Divergence, the price makes a bottom and rebounds.
Since January 15, 2021 in particular, that rebound (after the RSI's Bullish Divergence) has always topped above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) on what is a Lower Highs Zone (red zone).
This is on a short-term horizon, for your consideration only. Do not lose track of the bigger time-frames as shown below:
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SILVER Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price is testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) which is providing Support since December 15, 2020.
Target: 29.900 (August's Resistance) and if you are seeking more risk, then 31.500 (the 1.382 Fibonacci extension).
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GOLD Is the selling over?Today Gold hit the June 19, 2020 low after a very aggressive 2-day selling sequence. The dominant pattern since the August Highs (All Time Highs to be more exact), is a Channel Down and to better illustrate it I have used the Fibonacci Channel.
As you see most of the price action since the All Time High (ATH) is concentrated within the 0.786 and 0.236 Fibonacci levels (blue zone). That is the High Volatility zone. The price only broke outside the Channel two times during these 7 months, once on August 12, 2020 to test the -0.236 Fib extension and on January 06, 2021 to test the 1.382 Fib extension. So we can say that this pattern has been impressively consistent for such a long period of time.
However this is the first time that the Channel Down has entered the Major long-term Support Cluster (green zone). That is basically the consolidation phase roughly within April 15 to June 15, 2020, which was when the market was undecided following March's first stimulus package and was looking for direction. So ahead of the new stimulus vote, can this Cluster offer the Support and buying pressure that the market needs once again? It is possible but will it be on the (current) top layer or the lower one (1670 - 1680).
At the same time the 1D RSI just hit its multi-year Support level. Every-time this level has been hit, Gold made a strong rise. Within the Channel Down in particular, the rise normally hits the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). That typically happens to be at least on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement from the previous Lower High.
So if today was the new Bottom, then the potential rebound should technically hit anywhere within 1815 - 1835. And if the stimulus gets voted, then the Major Support Cluster may offer the necessary demand to break the Channel Down upwards and reverse this 7 month bearish trend.
What do you think? Is the selling over for Gold?
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XAUUSD a Channel Down perspectivePattern: Channel Down on 1D.
Signal: Buy is the current 1D candle makes a green closing as the price is on the Lower Lows trend-line and every bounce on the line within the Channel that closed on a green 1D candle, initiated the bullish leg towards the Lower Highs trend-line. 1,765 also happens to be the Support since November 30th and the 1D RSI is also currently on the multi-year Support Zone.
Target: 1830-1835 (the Lower Highs zone).
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XAUUSD a complete medium-term overview.Gold hasn't been acting itself lately as it has stayed too low for too long. The reason fundamentally is obvious. Following Pfizer's vaccine announcement, the medium-term Gold buyers came to a realization that the extreme gains of 2020 have (temporarily) come to an end and the only catalyst that can push the market again is the U.S. stimulus package. That has been delayed considerably, and even though it is very likely to have an agreement before February is offer, it is useful to see Gold's medium-term price action.
As seen on the chart, the underlying pattern is a Triangle, even though there is a clear horizontal Resistance since November 09 at 1966 and a clear horizontal Support since November 30 at 1765.
* Within the Triangle, the Lower Highs (Sell) Zone is displayed by the red range, while th Higher Lows (Buy) Zone by the green.
* The 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) has been rejecting further upside attempts outside the Triangle since January 12. So we've basically completed a full-month of practically dead neutral price action in anticipation of the new economic rescue package to offset COVID's disaster.
* If the price breaks above the Red Zone and the Triangle, then the obvious Target is the 1,960 - 1,966 Resistance. So far we've seen this happen twice and surprisingly the High is quite symmetrical. As you see on the chart the distance between each High since the Triangle started is on average 55 days. If this sequence holds, and Gold breaks above the Triangle, we may test the 1960 - 1966 Resistance in the first days of March.
* Breaking below the 1765 Support, will most likely mean a 1W candle close below the 1W MA50 (the +2 year Support of Gold, the importance of which I've covered extensively in previous analyses), meaning that the long-term trend switches to bearish.
* Breaking above the 1966 Resistance restores the medium-term bullish sentiment and we should see new All Time Highs within two months from the break-out.
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WTI OIL First buyers on the 4H MA50Pattern: Channel Up and Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Bullish once the price makes contact with the 4H MA50 (strong buy accumulation level since November).
Target: 60.00 (top of the Channel Up), if seeking more risk aim at 62.50 (top of the Megaphone and 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which indicates the Higher High since November).
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XAUUSD Buy SignalPattern: Rebound on the 4H RSI Support, and MACD Bullish Cross.
Signal: Buy as the price seems to be repeating the early December 2020 fractal, as it made its first stop on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Target: 1,865 (the 4H MA200) and 1,960 (the Monthly Resistance) in extension.
Recent Gold idea on the importance of the 1W MA50 on this Cyclical Bullish Trend:
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GOLD is at the start of a decade long Bull CycleGold has seen a rather strong selling pressure in recent weeks mainly due to the USD's strength and the continuous rise of the bond market, especially at the beginning of this year. Today's sharp drop after the Initial Jobless Claims put on a stronger risk-on sentiment on the stock markets, only made the short-term picture worse making Gold buyers panic. Tomorrow's Nonfarm Payrolls report may bring even more volatility to the table.
However I think it would be useful at this point to zoom out to the long-term charts and on the 1W time-frame in particular and compare Gold's current Bull Cycle to the one in the 2000s. As you see the bullish trend remains intact and in fact we are at the very beginning of the new 2020s Bull Cycle. In the 2000s, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting non-stop for more than 6 years before it broke. There have been some marginal breaches on the 1W MA50 but always quickly recovered on the next weeks.
So far on the current Bull Cycle, the 1W MA50 has been supporting for two years and two times Gold has made contact with it. Today we've had a marginal breach but if this week and the next close above it, then as in the 2000s, the bullish trend will remain intact. On top of that, the LMACD has entered the Support Zone which in the 2000s Bull Cycle always initiated a strong rally.
Do long-term buyers need to step in based on this comparison?
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WTI OIL Wait for a 4H MA50 test before enteringPattern: Channel Up & Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Buy once contact is made again with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Target: 60.00 (top of the Channel).
Most recent WTI idea:
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MCX Gold Trading Strategy for Intraday TradersGold is taking reversal from the strong support (SS) level ( 48635 ). And at present, it's very close to the SS. Can we see a reversal again?
If gold remains above SS, then it can touch the following levels: 49000 - 49200 - 49400
But according to RSI, MA, & DMI, it seems in a downtrend. So, if MCX gold breaks the support level, we may see the following targets: 48460 - 48260 - 48000
WTI OIL Buy SignalPattern: Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Buy if the 53.90 Resistanct breaks, as the 4H MACD and RSI is repeating the December 02 - 10 bottom fractal.
Target: 56.00 (the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which has been holding since late November).
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XAUUSD Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price is close to the Higher Lows trend-line and quite possibly repeating the December 02-14 consolidation fractal before the bullish break-out.
Target: 1895 (just below the Symmetrical Resistance) and 1950 is extension (just below the Resistance).
Most recent XAUUSD signal:
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COPPER showing strength. Buy opportunity.Pattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the RSI and MACD are approaching their Support levels, while the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is closing in.
Target: 4.200 (the 3.5 Fibonacci extension).
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GOLD Time for Higher Lows assisted by the 1W MA50?Quick update on Gold (XAUUSD). Today the price hit the MA50 on the 1W time-frame (blue trend-line) and is the first time it makes contact with that level since November 30th. I had then called for a strong long-term buy and this is what I will do again, as this is only the 3rd time contact is made with the 1W MA50 since December 2018. Naturally, that is a very strong Support trend-line. As long as it holds, the long-term trend remains bullish, as we'll have Higher Lows, first towards $2000 and then if the orange pivot breaks even $2200. However if one 1W candle closes below the 1W MA50, we can see a pull back to the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) around $1670, which would correct the whole June-July 2020 (abnormal) Parabolic Rise. That would be a standard -20% correction.
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XAUUSD Entered the 4H Support Zone - Buy SignalPattern: Consolidation within the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1,815 - 1,820 Support Zone.
Signal: Buy as long as the Support Zone holds. If broken keep in mind that the 1W MA50 (ultimate yearly Support) is at 1,795.
Target: the 4H MA200 and if we get a daily close above it, then the Symmetrical Resistance Zone.
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WTI OIL needs to hit the 4H MA50 to accumulate buyersPattern: Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Buy once contact is made with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and after the price consolidates with a Double Bottom. Every drop below the 4H MA50 has been the optimal buy entry.
Target: 53.90 (the Resistance) and for those seeking more risk 56.00.
Most recent WTI signal:
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NATURAL GAS broke the 1D MA50 after +2 months.Last time NG crossed that level was on November 03. But last time it did so coming below with the 1D MA50 as a Resistance, was on July 28 and before that March 09.
On both occasions, the after the break-out, an approximately +20% rise followed. In addition, the RSI just broke the trend-line which also broke during those two events. Everything points towards a Natural Gas value around 3.300.
Most recent NG signal:
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GOLD Is it time for buyers to start worrying?Last week Gold saw a drop bigger than -6%, which got a lot of investors thinking that a stronger sell-off may be starting. So should Gold buyers worry? In my opinion not (yet) and I will explain why.
** The long-term Bullish Channel is still intact **
As you see on the chart, Gold remains within its long-term Bullish Channel that started after the August 2018 bottom ($1160) and got confirmed after breaking the (former) $1400 Resistance that was holding since 2014.
Excluding the March 2020 break downwards (which was caused by the COVID melt-down) and the July 2020 break upwards (which was caused by the stimulus hopes), this bullish Channel has been pretty consistent. In fact its last Low on November 30, 2020 has been on its Higher Low trend-line. Not only that but that Low took place on the 1W MA50 (as seen on the chart below that I posted on November 30), which has been holding since December 2018 and every contact with is a long-term buy opportunity.
So as long as this trend-line holds, the long-term bullish trend should be preserved. Back to our current chart, which is on the 1D time-frame. As you see, we currently have an MA50/ MA200 squeeze (black arrows). Last two times this happened (May 30, 2019 and December 23, 2019), Gold rallied aggressively.
** The role of the MACD and RSI **
It is important to note here that the 1D MACD just made a Bearish Cross. As you see on the chart, every time the MACD makes a Bearish Cross and turns lower, Gold enters a shor-term consolidation phase (green rectangle on the chart). Special case was the case even during the 2nd August irregularity when the price turned sideways after the MACD Bearish Cross but then never recovered (even till now) that high and instead dropped lower (but it can be argued that it just corrected itself after the irregularity back into the Channel Up). But in all other 3 instances, a new High followed the consolidation.
In my opinion the current phase is more similar to the April 2020 Bearish Cross. The RSI shows us something interesting here. In both cases it rebounded after it roughly touched the 30.000 (RSI) level and then after a roughly 70.000 top, it dropped back to the 41.000 level. A strong rebound followed. This is where the RSI is today, even though this time the 41.000 pull-back came earlier.
** The Death Cross that we should avoid **
I need to point out, that the pattern which would signal a long-term trend change would be the 1D Death Cross. That is when the MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses below the MA200 (orange trend-line). That could be devastating for Gold bugs. To put it into perspective, last time a Death Cross occurred on the 1D time-frame was on June 22, 2018 (see chart below):
What followed after that was a sharp 2-month sell-off of around -9% that made Gold's last known bottom at $1160. A similar sell-off would drop the price close to the $1650 mark. So far that looks less likely, but I would like to read your thoughts on that. Do you think that Gold's long-term bullish trend is intact, or the trend has started shifting to the downside?
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XAUUSD Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price hit both the 4H MA50 and the Higher Low trend-line of the Channel Up and the RSI its Buy Zone. However the MACD has a gap, which could lead lower so reserve a buy for the 4H MA200 as well.
Target: 1990 (right below the September 01 High and the inner Higher High trend-line).
Previous Gold signal:
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