Will October be Déjà vu for NATURAL GAS?Quick observation here. NG traders that are deep into the commodity's technical dynamics agree that Natural Gas is trading on patterns that are cyclical on the very long-term.
If cyclical behavior and seasonality play a big part on this, then why should the month of October be any different? Every 4 years since 2012, NG makes a bottom around March-April, then rises aggressively up until October, which initiates a pull-back. That pull-back appears to be a Bull Flag for a new High a few months later.
Will history repeat itself?
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Commoditysignals
WTI OIL just formed a Golden Cross on 1D!Oil is under pressure since Friday as it got rejected just short of the 41.70 Resistance. However as you see on the right chart (1D time-frame), that formed a Golden Cross, which is typically a bullish formation. Interestingly enough, the price action since the August high resemble that of early March - late May (when Oil formed a Bottom).
On the 4H chart, symmetry is having its way as we have 2 perfect contacts on the 41.70 Resistance and 36.60 Support already. If that pattern continues to be symmetrical, we may see a bounce on the 38.85 (or close) Interim Support (or Pivot however you may want to call it), as it happened on September 21.
Which pattern do you think will weigh more on Oil? The 4H Resistance/ Support or the 1D Golden Cross can make it finally break above and towards a new High? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
Most recent Oil signal:
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MCX Nickel Detailed Trend Forecast & TipsHere, I have used Elliott wave theory, Fibonacci Retracement, and MA ( 30 & 62 ) to identify the next move. At present, MCX nickel in a corrective wave. We may see a reversion bounce off here. It can be up to 38.20% to 23.60% of the retracement level. Wherein, 38.20% retracement level will act as a resistance and 50.00% vice versa.
In other words, nickel will start raising for 1076 - 1090 - 1100 level. Dynamic resistance breakout will lead the prices for a 23.60% retracement level. Intraday or positional trader can hold 1080 level.
If nickel breakout the strong support and 50.00% retracement level, don't buy. That can slip immediately for a 61.80% retracement level.
Also, don't forget to wait for a crossover of MA 30 & 62.
GOLD Will this be the longest Bull Cycle in history?Gold has started a new Bull Cycle (since the late 2015 bottom) that was confirmed after it broke above the $1380 5-year Resistance in mid 2019. The U.S.-China trade war peaking at that time and recently the massive money stimulus from the Federal Reserve creating inflation , Gold has already reached new All Time Highs.
The recent 2 month pull-back shouldn't worry long-term investors. We have entered a new era in money supply and this alone can be enough to sustain this new Bull Cycle to extreme Highs.
On this chart, I plotted the previous two Bull Cycles (1976 - 1980 and 2000 - 2011) on the current one. We see that the first one (1976 - 1980) was far more aggressive, reaching higher (marginally) but being shorter (considerably) than the second (2000 - 2011). The current Cycle (2015 - now) seems so far to be like the second and if it wasn't for the U.S. - China tensions and now the massive COVID stimulus, it would have been even less aggressive. As soon as new balances are found, we can argue that this Cycle too might reach (marginally) lower Highs than the previous too, while being longer. Of course it doesn't have to be symmetrical as my projection shows but that serves as a good illustration to make my point reach out.
That is the "Theory of Diminishing Returns" on economic asset classes that rise through time, and is the same as the one I have published on Bitcoin a few years back. That theory suggests that no matter how strongly an asset rises through time, every time will be less aggressive than the previous one.
Do you agree with this? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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P.S. For those who recognize the analysis, this is a repost of the idea below which I published on September 27 and got deleted. I am publishing it again in order to be used for future reference reasons:
GOLD bullish formations on key time-framesGold has closed last week in strong fashion as it registered the highest close since September 21, a few points shy of the MA50 on the 1D chart (blue trend-line on the left chart). This may be to many (and to be honest technically it is) a strong Resistance level, but in the last 12 months that level along with another formation, create a very bullish structure for Gold long-term.
** The 1D time-frame **
That is the MACD Bullish Cross on the 1D time-frame. As you can see on the chart, every time the MACD makes a Bullish Cross and Gold is trading below or on the 1D MA50, a very aggressive rally follows. In fact in the last 3 occurrences since November 2019, Gold rallied +17%, +11% and +21% respectively, following such a series of formations.
** The 4H time-frame **
At the same time, we shouldn't ignore the smaller time-frame of 4H (right chart). As with 1D, that two at first glance waves a bearish signal as the price is almost on the Lower High trend-line of the Channel Down (blue channel) that started after the August 17 High and just broke above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) which last time initiated a sharp drop.
However I can't overlook the fact that the 4H MA50 and MA200 are close to forming a Golden Cross (happens when the MA50 crosses above the MA200). Since December 2019 (I couldn't fit that on the screen), that technical set-up has also kick-started a very strong rally. It is interesting to mention that this set-up always comes a few days later than the 1D MACD Bullish Cross. Additionally, the 4H RSI is near the level (77.000) where the 4H Golden Cross is typically formed.
Are those patterns bullish enough for you to deliver another aggressive rally or not? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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Will GOLD Hit the 50000 this Weekend?Overall it's a descending trend. According to the Stoch RSI, It will continuously fall. So, intraday traders can sell GOLD now nearby dynamic resistance (DR) trendline for the target of 50000 - 49600 .
If gold will breakout the DR, don't selloff.
At present, we have chances to see the following levels before this weekend: 50560-50700 .
Please keep your eyes on the Stoch RSI and moving average.
GOLD The 1D RSI hit the March levels! Time to buy or not yet??Gold ( XAUUSD ) has been under heavy selling pressure lately as not only does it follow the stock markets lower but is also hit by its negative correlation with the recent rise on DXY . As it happened in March, it appears that the market puts (the highly speculative Gold contracts) and stocks in the same risky basket and instead rush to DXY as safe haven.
** The RSI **
What I want to share with you today is that Gold's RSI has just entered the 35.000 - 30.000 Buy Zone, which it last touched in March. In fact this Buy Zone has been holding since the August 2018 market Bottom of 1160! Every time Gold has made contact with that Zone, buyers used it as accumulation and a sharp rally followed. So it is obvious that it is a very reliable technical buy level for long-term traders/ investors.
** The 1D MA300 **
In addition to the above, there were a few times (March - May 2019 and March 2020) when the price along with the RSI Buy Zone, also made contact (or near contact) with the 1D MA300 (green trend-line on the chart). Right now, there is a significant Gap from where we are now (1870) and the 1D MA300 (1650).
Will it get filled as in March or is the contact with the RSI Buy Zone good enough to accumulate buyers again? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
P.S. For those who recognize the analysis, this is a repost of the idea below which I published on September 24 and got deleted. I am publishing it again in order to be used for future reference reasons:
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WTI OIL Buy SignalPattern: Descending Triangle on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price rebounded on the Support making a Double Bottom event, while the MACD made a Bullish Cross.
Target: 40 (right on the Lower High trend-line and the 4H MA200).
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XAUUSD Sell SignalPattern: Channel Down on 4H.
Signal: Sell as the price is approaching the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level while the RSI is forming a top pattern (sideways) near its 1.5 month Resistance.
Target: 1860 (roughly above the Support).
Most recent XAUUSD signal:
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Gold glittering on positive stimulus hopes...new month new levelGold prices Gold declined after a back-to-back advance as the first American presidential debate disappointed the market by giving no clarity regarding their policies and stances. If USD is to weaken as the stimulus package accord seems far away, gold could make its way back. Technically holding above 1880 and close abv 1889 could rise again to test immediate resistance at 1900 and 1905. Buying on dips is suggested.
SILVER buy signals.SILVER, D1: Support line + Side of Bollinger bands + Hidden divergence + Oversold + Hammer
NATURAL GAS Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: (A) Buy as long as he price trades above the 1D MA200 (orange line) (B) Sell if it breaks below it.
Target: (A) 2.700 (right below the Resistance) (B) 1.650 (right above the Support).
*Note: the RSI is near its 1 year Support Zone. Only once this failed to initiate a bullish sequence.
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XAUUSD Buy SignalPattern: Head and Shoulders on 1H.
Signal: Buy as the price is consolidating on the Right Shoulder.
Target: 1,960 (bottom of the neckline/ symmetrical Resistance).
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GOLD The 1D MA50 held! Potential rally ahead.Gold has completed a series of successive touches on the 1D MA50 (blue line) without breaking it. Ever 1D MA50 contact since March 31 has initiated aggressive rallies (+11.50% and +24.30% respectively) within the Channel Up. Additionally, the MACD about to make a bullish cross for the first time since June. Coincidentally that was when (roughly) the price last rebounded on the 1D MA50.
Assuming the less optimistic scenario of a +11.50% rally takes place, that puts XAUUSD's target at $2130. Do you agree or is it far fetched?
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XAUUSD Scalping signalPattern: Head and Shoulders on 4H.
Signal: Sideways as long as the price trades within the 4H MA50 and MA200.
Target: The MA50 (for sell) and the MA200 (for buy).
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USOIL Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up.
Signal: (A) Buy if the Lower Highs trend-line breaks (B) Sell if the Channel Up breaks downwards.
Target: (A) 43.50 (just below the Resistance) (B) 37.10 (just above the Lower Support).
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XAUUSD Channel Up vs Channel DownPattern: (A) Channel Down (blue), (B) Channel Up (orange).
Signal: (A) Sell as long as it doesn't close a 4H candle above the 4H MA50, (B) Bullish if 1,992 breaks.
Target: (A) 1885 (Lower Low of the Channel Down), (B) 2060 (Higher High of the Channel Up).
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XAUUSD Trading PlanPattern: (A) Triangle (B) Emerging Channel Up.
Signal: (A) Sell as long as the price stays within the Triangle, (B) Buy if the Triangle breaks to the upside.
Target: (A) 1930 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement level), (B) 2050 (Channel Up Higher High).
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Copper (to break July's high)Experimental probability of breaking 13/07/20 high (2.9756) > 80%
Entries @ discount zones highlighted on chart -high chance price will not retrace :(...
Note: discount zone are invalid if price broke the high.
WTI Crude Oil Trading Strategy for this weekWTI Crude oil following the support trendline and dynamic resistance. At present, it's in an uptrend for short-term investors. According to this chart, the last descending triangle pattern is the broken upper side.
Still, we cannot trust this breakout because of excess at the support line. Buy position can initiate at 43 for 43.4 - 44 targets.
If WTI comes below descending resistance or at the red circle area, jump for 42 - 41.6 levels as a target.
Note: keep your eyes open at the uptrend channel.
I have updated a report on Gold on Sunday. Wherein I listed a few events/inventories that can affect to Bullion & Energy sector commodities. You must read that.
OIL Pull back will create a buy opportunityPattern: Triangle on 4H within a Channel Up.
Signal: Sell as long as the Triangle doesn't make a Higher High. Buy the dip afterwards.
Target: 44.50 the dip buy target.
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XAUUSD Break-out Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy only if 1992 breaks as at the moment the 4H MA50 is applying sell pressure.
Target: $2040 (+6.00% extension and Lower High limit).
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XAUUSD How low can it go? $1670 possible?Following yesterday's strong sell-off, it would be useful to see how far Gold can correct to in order to be prepared for the next big buy entry.
This is a highly speculative projection though based on the previous time (early March) that Gold posted such a strong decline.
As you see it was when the MACD on the 1D chart turned bearish. Gold broke the 1D MA50 on March 12 and continued aggressively lower, even broke the 1D MA200 and found relief (and buyers) on the 2 month Support trend-line (green line). The fundamentals played a big part as it was when the U.S. announced strong economic stimulus to save the falling stock markets and the Fed lowered the interest rates twice in a week. The expected inflation made investors rush into Gold heavily.
Right now, the 1D MA50 is holding, in fact the price rebounded exactly on the (dashed black) trend-line that is holding since the March bottom. We can assume that if the MA50 breaks, we may see another crash wave as low as the 1D MA200 and the 2 month Support, which is now at $1670. That would be the most optimal long-term buy entry.
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