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Commoditysignals

GOLD eyeing $2800 long-term as inflation runs wildThis chart displays Gold (XAUUSD) along with the United States Inflation Rate (orange). The recent developments both geopolitically (Ukraine conflict) but more importantly macro-economically (inflation soaring), have put Gold back on track to its long-term bullish trend ever since it broke free of its 2012 - 2019 Bear Cycle. As the Inflation Rate shows, we are at the stage of the first major spike (ellipse pattern), which during the past 2 Gold Cycles was seen half-way through the long-term rally (small circles). In the previous Cycle, Gold peaked on its 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level from its prior All Time High. This Fib is currently at $2785. There's the target for long-term investors. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
2
XAUUSD Trading plan for the rest of the monthGold (XAUUSD) reached our 1875 target within the short-term Channel Up: The price didn't advance any further as it was rejected exactly on the 1877.50 Resistance (formed of the November 16 High) and is pulling back. In order to extend this bullish sentiment into the medium-term as well, Gold needs to close a 1D candle clearly above the 1877.50 Resistance. In that case the target will the 1935, which will make both a new Higher High on the long-term Channel Up (since the August 09 market bottom) while also reaching the 3.0 Fibonacci extension (such as the last Higher High run on November 16). Until it closes above 1877.50 though, the price is more likely to make a pull-back first towards at least (even slightly below) the 1D MA50 again in order to attract more buyers and form a new Higher Low on the short-term Channel Up. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
4
XAUUSD Big upside potentialGold is on a sustainable uptrend after holding the 1,780 Support following my buy update two weeks ago: This time I am putting things on a wider perspective and besides the two small Channel Up patterns, I've displayed the wider one that started with the August 09 2021 market bottom. As previously mentioned, the short-term target is 1875 (just below the 1877.50 Resistance and the 2.0 Fibonacci extension). When that broke during the previous short-term Channel Up, Gold reached both the 2.5 and 3.0 Fib extensions. Technically those are realistic long-term targets if the price breaks above the 1877.50 Resistance. P.S. Always keep in mind the multi-month outlook on the 1W time-frame: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
6
WTI OIL Potential Market Top. Time to sell again? Risk involved.Those who follow me for a long time here and on Reddit know how bullish I've been on WTI since the rescue packages arrived in 2020. Since March 08 2021, though a new and very well structured Megaphone pattern has emerged that has allowed us to trade both directions with high efficiency. Most recently, since November 30 to be exact, I've started with buy trades on the expected rally to the Higher Highs trend-line of this Megaphone: All targets during that leg have been accomplished and now WTI Oil is getting very close to the top of the pattern. Notice that during the previous rally of late August - late October 2021, this Top was projected by the Ichimoku squeeze. This squeeze is only 1 week away, so technically it is a valid strategy to start selling again. Now of course selling a long-term bullish market is a counter-trend move and involves higher risk than dip buying, so approach this strategy in accordance to your risk tolerance. Technically, targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level or at least the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) is a viable option. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
3
XAUUSD Channel Up + 1 extra Support towards 1875Gold is being sold aggressively following Powell's comments on the expected inflation yesterday, despite being considered a counter-inflation asset. Technically that sell-off can be attributed to the chart I posted 1 week ago on the selling pressure that the top of the long-term Triangle applies: On the shorter term and the 1D time-frame, Gold has formed a very structured Channel Up. That is similar to the pattern of late September - October, which eventually broke to the upside and reached as high as the 3.0 Fibonacci extension. In case of a breach there is a last Support involved, which on November 03 gave the final bottom before the rally. We have set a medium-term target of 1875 (just below the next Resistance) for the next Higher High. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
15
NATURAL GAS 1D Death Cross ahead. Lower Lows expected.It was last September (2021) where I first starting calling for a market top on Natural Gas, which at the time seemed odd to the majority of the energy market participants as it was coming off a very aggressive 6 month rally. It wasn't odd though based on NG's long-term, multi-year cyclical behavior as I accurately displayed on the following chart: Back to today, and the 1D time-frame, the price is about to form a 1D Death Cross, which happens when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and is considered to be a bearish formation. The last 1D Death Cross after a Cycle Top was formed on February 21 2019. It was on that period that NG made a new Low and gradually entered a structured bearish pattern on Lower Lows (Channel Down ish), with the 1D MA50 acting as Resistance. Check also the MACD indicator which is virtually identical between those two periods. My long-term targets are the 1.236, 1.5 and 1.618 Fibonacci extensions successively, which were the Lower Lows targets of the 2019 pattern. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by TradingShot
2
XAUUSD Major long-term break-out ahead.Gold eventually followed the pattern presented on my last analysis (see chart below) and after completing the Bull Flag, it reversed and broke above the 1834 Resistance: The immediate target on the short-term is 1875 (Resistance at 1877.50). However, this latest development brings us ahead of a potential huge long-term break-out. Today's chart is on the 1W time-frame, where this possibility can be more effectively presented. As you see, XAUUSD has been trading within a Triangle pattern of Lower Highs and Higher Lows since late August 2020. No 1W candle has closed above or below this structure, not even the weekly candle of August 09 2021 which started will a collapse but quickly recovered and closed well above the Higher Lows of the Triangle. This indicates that the market has been ranging and investors have been waiting in anticipation of a longer term break-out. A rejection on the Lower Highs trend-line should pull the price back below 1800 marginally. A 1W candle close above the Lower Highs could target the 1915 High of the May 31 2021 1W candle, which interestingly enough is on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. If you are a long-term trader, use this pattern to your advantage. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
6
WTI OIL is on track for the October $85.00 high.We have been following this bullish sequence on WTI Oil closely since the December 02 2021 bottom and so far is following our projection to a great extent: As you see, the most recent pull-back (red arrow) was successfully made on the yellow Lower Highs trend-line and after the price recovered, it re-tested (green arrow) the line as a Support, which is so far giving a very strong green 1D candle today. As explained on my previous analyses, this is following the late August - late October bullish wave sequence to the Higher Highs trend-line of the long-term pattern. You don't need to target all the way to the Higher Highs trend-line, the previous high of $85.00 is good enough to take profit as we've been mentioning since December. However if you wish to seek more risk, an potential indicator that may signal the next top, is the Ichimoku Cloud. During the last bullish wave of August - October, the market top was formed exactly on the Ichimoku squeeze. Currently the new squeeze is on February 10. Can this mean that we still have another month of uptrend? Possibly but always manage the risk carefully especially in the energy sector. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
5
GOLD forming a symmetrical November bullish break-out pattern.As you see Gold spot prices (XAUUSD) broke below their dominant Channel Up pattern of December but this didn't turn out to be a bearish signal as the very same bullish (break-out) flag was formed in October's Channel Up. The Bull Flag (black channel) eventually recovered the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and broke upwards, above the 1834 Symmetrical Resistance and made a 1877.50 top. Right now Gold is above the 4H MA50, attempting that important break-out test. We expect 1875 at least within January. A 3.0 Fibonacci extension can be used as target later after 1D closes a candle above the Resistance. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
5
XAUUSD hit the 4H MA200. Buy opportunity.Gold experienced strong selling yesterday on the 4H time-frame, which technically was the result of the Channel Up making a Higher High. So far the pull-back has stopped on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and as it holds, at the same time the RSI bounced on its 1 month Support Zone. This creates buy conditions again. Technically it appears to be forming a similar pattern to the October Channel Up, which resulted in a very bullish break-out rally in November. As such, my immediate target is the next Resistance (1877.50) and in extension, if a 1D candle closes above it, then the 3.0 Fibonacci extension (1938.50). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
3
WTI OIL The important 1D MA50 testWell I've been tracking and trading the pattern you see on this chart for over a month and the very last formations have played out particularly well: Right now WTI is ahead of the first important test of this uptrend, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) which is currently posing as a Resistance. If that breaks, we have a strong case of a bullish continuation. However, this the current wave is repeating that of August - September quite closely, the (yellow) Lower Highs trend-line will be critical as well, and what I am particularly looking as confirmation is a rejection there, hold on the 1D MA50 and the red Ichimoku area and then a strong bullish break-out. The RSI is so far on course for its Symmetrical Resistance of those Lower Highs. If that breaks, our next target will be $85.00. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
XAUUSD Emerging Golden Cross on 4HGold appears to have priced the bottom two weeks ago on the medium-term Channel Up on the 4H time-frame and is now ready to break upwards for a new Higher High. The confirmation signal for this rise could be the 4H Golden Cross (when the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 4h MA200 (orange trend-line). This is technically a very bullish formation. As shown on the chart, last time this pattern emerged was on October 20. It was when the price of XAUUSD was coming off a Higher Low (bottom) and the Ichimoku Cloud has just turned green again. This is the very same sequence we see today. The price is above the Ichimoku and is about to form a Golden Cross. Assuming the Higher Highs are symmetrical then the next one should be on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension as well, which is currently around 1920. Before that however, the price has to overcome the 1876 Symmetrical Resistance, which rejected the uptrend recently on November 16. That is our medium-term target. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
3
WTI OIL Consolidation almost over. Buy the break-out.This is an update to a pattern on WTI that I've been working on since August: As you see, the price did eventually rebound and right now is consolidating within the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) being the Support and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) being the Resistance. This is similar to the August 25 - September 10 consolidation, looking like another accumulation phase before a major rally. Be ready to buy the break-out and target 76.30 on the short-term, which where the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) may act as a Resistance. After the (yellow) Lower Highs trend-line breaks, our attention shifts to the long-term target of $85.00. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
3
XAUUSD update. The rally is starting.This is an update to last weeks trading plan on Gold: As you see even though the Fed Rate Decision event yesterday slightly altered the original pattern with a candle wick 1753, the current formation remains very similar to the June 21 - July 05 sequence. Then it was the July rally that took Gold to its 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, this time we are starting the December rally which initially targets 1815 (0.5 Fib) and if a session closes above, then 1870 in extension. Notice how accurately the reversal formation on the RSI predicted the bottom and the current rebound we are in. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
3
WTI OIL approaching a medium-term ResistanceThis is an update to my WTI Oil outlook made over a week ago: Despite breaking below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and the Higher Lows trend-line of the multi-month Bullish Megaphone pattern, the price managed to close all 1D candles within the pattern and formed a Support. It has come very close to my first 73.50 Target which is near the 0.5 Fibonacci level and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). I consider this a strong Resistance, in fact the whole zone as high as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), where we can see a weekly consolidation and sideways trading in a similar way as in late August - early September. Short-term traders may buy if the price breaks above the 1D MA100 and target 76.30 and engage for a more long-term trade only if the 1D MA50 breaks (TP 85.00 in that case). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
3
XAUUSD Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 1D. Signal: Buy as the price has so far found Support on the Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Channel Up, while a Golden Cross (when the MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the MA200 (orange trend-line) has emerged. Also the 1D RSI is on a reversal formation similar to June 29. Target: 1815 (just below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which was the Resistance during the July rebound) and if 1820 breaks then target extension at 1870 (just below the 1876 Resistance). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
3
WTI OIL Ideal long-term buy opportunityWTI Oil is down more than -20% since the October High. The fundamentals over the new Omicron COVID variant have undoubtedly accelerated this but technically this is a much needed correction following the big rally of August - October. My last update on WTI was the following, where I pointed out the upcoming rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line): The 1D RSI touched its multi-month Support Zone and even though a slightly lower level is technically possible (-23.50% would be within the technical limits of the 9 month Bullish Megaphone pattern), the current levels already represent an ideal buy opportunity for the long-term. Our firm's thesis is that the rebound that will follow will target the 0.5 Fibonacci level (73.50) on the short-term, followed by the 0.382 (76.30) on the medium-term. The long-term lies on October's 85.40 High and potentially beyond (based on the geopolitics at the time can be reviewed). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
2
XAUUSD 1D Golden Cross forming.This is a Gold update to last week's idea on the potential bottom formation on the 1D MA50: The price did form a Support around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) indeed and the important development of the day is the formation of the Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame (when the 1D MA50 crosses above the 1D MA200), which is about to emerge. Being technically a bullish indicator, Gold is expected hold the Higher Lows zone of the Megaphone and the Channel Up. See also how well the RSI bounced off its own Higher Lows zone of August. The green line is the DXY and since it is pulling back, that should have an additional bullish effect on Gold. But be advised that the Nonfarm Payrolls at the end of the week is the trigger for either a strong rebound or break below the Channel. The direction after the Nonfarm Payrolls should provide the new trend. In our view, it is very likely to see a slow monthly rise similar to October's. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
XAUUSD Finding a Support on the 1D MA50Gold has held its 1D candle closings on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for 2 straight sessions and today despite the low volume (due to the Thanksgiving holiday), is attempting to print its first green 1D candle since November 17. As you see this is right on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Bullish Megaphone, slightly above the bottom trend-line of the Channel Up and with the RSI on its own Higher Lows trend-line. As long as this holds, the price should rebound and initially aim for the 1876 Symmetrical Resistance. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
4
WTI OIL Rejection on the 1D MA50Pattern: Megaphone on the 1D time-frame. Signal: Sell as the price has been rejected on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and buy before it touches the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) or when the RSI hits the Support Zone. Target: 85.40 (the October 23 High). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
COPPER Buy signalPattern: Channel Up on 1D. Signal: Buy as the price is rebounding on the Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Channel Up while the MACD just formed a Bullish Cross. Target: 4.980 (the 1.236 Fibonacci extension). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMEX:HG1!Long
by TradingShot
2