XAUUSD Rejection on the 4H MA50 gives a short-term sell signal.Gold (XAUUSD) appears to have entered a ranged phase, similar to the 'Accumulation Rectangle' pattern of August 19 - September 11. This (almost) 1 month consolidation was the accumulation pattern that the market used in order to fuel the next big Bullish Leg, supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
The 4H MA50 was acting as a Pivot though during the Rectangle and a rejection on September 02 there, caused the last Support (bottom) test before it started the recovery process. We believe we might be on a similar stage as the 4H RSI is posting a similar Lower Highs trend-line.
As a result, we believe that the current potential rejection on the 4H MA50 is a short-term sell opportunity, targeting 2625.
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Commoditysignals
Potential bullish bounce?WTI oil (XTI/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance level which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 69.90
1st Support: 67.81
1st Resistance: 73.04
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Pullback resistance ahead for Gold?The price is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support level which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 2,545.34
1st Support: 2,624.97
1st Resistance: 2,660.47
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
XAUUSD Top of Channel Up. Small correction possible.Gold (XAUUSD) has reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 2-month Channel Up. The trend also shows a top on the Sine Waves sequence and the 1D MACD a potential Bearish Cross. This has been the most consistent sell signal in the past 4 months.
As a result, we turn bearish on Gold short-term, targeting a new Higher Low at the bottom of the Channel Up, a little over the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level as the September 03 Low. Our Target is 2615.
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Sentiment: Option Traders Take Bearish Bets on Silver and CopperNegative option flows were found for two metals at the same time: silver and copper.
Portfolios that want prices to fall appeared at the same time as the market is growing, which is interesting.
The positions are quite large, but they cannot be called "Insider positions", so we will be careful with forecasts.
Of course, we need chart confirmation that agrees with the sentiment in options. Option traders like to flip trends too, so we need more signals.
If you're long right now, though, that's something to consider. Like I said, option trades in Silver and Copper are significant.
WTI OIL Still bullish, targeting the 1D MA200.WTI Oil (USOIL) eventually gave us the 2 green day streak we wanted in order to turn bullish, as per our suggestion 2 weeks ago (September 10, see chart below):
Event though it marginally broke below April's Channel Down, the buying pressure it has build is similar to all 3 major Bullish Legs since June 2023. Notice how the 1D RSI forms the same Bullish Divergence (Channel Up).
However due to the lower bottom than the one we expected, we have to change our Target to 76.00, which represents a +16.60% rise from the bottom, similar to the smaller Bullish Leg of the three that started on the June 04 2024 Low.
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XAUUSD There is no stopping it. Can breach $3000 by mid 2025.It was only a little over a month ago (August 05, see chart below) when we signaled a strong buy on Gold (XAUUSD), targeting at 3100:
Practically, we've been calling for Gold's new Bull Cycle since April 04 (see chart below):
As you can see the price action followed our projection closely and immediately broke higher making a new All Time High. According to the 2019 - 2020 Bull Phase, we are in the middle of the Cycle, assuming both fractals are similar in % rise terms (+85.42%) or the 3.0 Fibonacci extension.
Even if they don't, it is pretty clear that the long-term pattern is an 8-year Channel Up and most likely shouldn't top before the 1M CCI starts making Lower Highs. So far we have priced the first High (April 2024) and according to the 2020 fractal, the second should be at the end of the Bull Phase when the trend tops.
If that's not at 3100 by that time, we encourage you to take the long-term profit earlier like us. Also, this chart shows that since 2015, October isn't generally a bad month to buy at all, having failed as an entry only 2 times in 10 years.
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Bearish drop off pullback resistance?USO/USD is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 72.19
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 74.66
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 69.80
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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Bullish momentum to extend?COPPER is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that align with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 4.2646
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 4.2003
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 4.3858
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bearish reversal?WTI oil (XTI/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to thee 61.8% Fibonacci support.
Pivot: 72.56
1st Support: 68.16
1st Resistance: 75.18
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce off major pullback support?The Gold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 2,531.45
1st Support: 2,500.49
1st Resistance: 2,588.56
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
XAUUSD Approaching the cyclical top. Be ready to sell.A little more than 2 months ago (July 08, see chart below) we signaled a strong buy on Gold (XAUUSD) as the start of the new Bullish Leg of the 2-year Channel Up was confirmed, and we set a long-term Target at 2600:
Now that the Target is about to get hit, we prepare for a new long-term peak at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up. The previous rallies/ Bullish Legs of the pattern rose by a minimum of +15.74% and maximum of +24.12%. The latter rally however started very close to the bottom of the Channel Up, so we believe that the new top will be priced within a +15.74% and + 18.60% (second lowest) range.
This gives us a Bearish Range of 2635 - 2700, where the action is a Sell, certainly not the level to place any long-term buys. We will start considering this after the price approaches the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) again, which is a signal that only failed once in four times.
This time the top formation may be prolonged until November's U.S. elections but the bottom line is that near the top of the Channel Up, the action is to sell/ take profit.
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Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?USOUSD is falling towards the support level that is an overlap support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 67.83
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 66.26
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 70.43
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
XAUUSD: Makes a critical Bull Cross and aims at 2,650.Gold has turned completely bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 64.281, MACD = 19.680, ADX = 29.142) as it made a new All Time High today, extending the new bullish wave of the Channel Up. With the support of the 1D MA50, which is unbroken since July 3rd, we expect the extension of this wave as the 1D MACD is on its way to a Bull Cross. Since early June MACD Bull Crosses have come one after the other, the first priced Gold's bottom and the second confirmed it. Consequently, this is the most efficient level to buy and aim for a new +7.50% rise (TP = 2,650).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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XAGUSD One final Low remaining.Silver (XAGUSD) has been trading within a 2-year Channel Up pattern and since its last Higher High (top) on the week of May 20 2024, it has been declining on the new Bearish Leg. The price already broke below the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) and so far seems to be replicating the Bearish Leg (Channel Down) of May - September 2023.
With the 1D RSI sequences between the two fractals also similar, we expect Silver to make one final Low just below the 1W MA50 and above the 0.618 Fibonacci level, before bottoming and rebound. Our Target is 26.500.
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Overlap resistance ahead?The Silver (XAG/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support level which has been identified as a pullback support.
Pivot: 28.93
1st Support: 27.72
1st Resistance: 29.61
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
XAUUSD The 1D MA50 test is imminent.Three weeks ago (August 26, see chart below) we called that it was 'time to turn bearish short-term' on Gold (XAUUSD) as the price was approaching the top of its 3-month Channel Up:
Today we realize why as the price has turned sideways and can potentially one Bearish Leg to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which last time signaled the pattern's bottom (Higher Low).
This is why we keep our Sell Target unchanged at 2450, just above the 0.618 Fib and a revised Channel Up bottom line. After that, we will buy just before the 1D MACD forms its 2nd Bullish Cross, which as you can see, has been the most optimal confirmed Buy Signal within the Channel Up.
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Oil Collapse | WTICOUSD About to Give it Up!I called the oil top in June 2022 and I have been building / holding a massive leveraged short position ever since then.
This market will take YEARS to recover, after the current selloff is complete. I will continue to cover the devastation, along the way.
Don't listen to the media - they are lost.
Question your "advisors" - they are going to encourage you to "stay invested", it's what they do.
Ultimately, the decision to ride out this market will cost you dearly.
If you are able, GET OUT OF THE MARKETS.
There is nowhere to hide!
Bearish drop off 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?XAG/USD has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could fall from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 29.11
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop stop: 27.88
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support.
Take profit: 28.35
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Pullback resistance ahead?The Silver (XAG/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the overlap support.
Pivot: 28.78
1st Support: 27.92
1st Resistance: 29.63
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GASOLINE Do-or-die moment before total collapse.Gasoline (RB1!) is approaching not only the Lower Lows trend-line from the December 12 2022 Low but also the Support Zone that has been in effect in the past 3.5 years. Naturally, this is the most critical Support Cluster of all, if the market is avoid a brutal sell-off in the coming months. That will be if Gasoline closes a month below the Support Zone.
Until then, this is its last chance to stage another multi-month Bullish Leg similar to those of early 2023 and early 2024. As long as the Support Zone holds then, we will target 2.6000, which is below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level as well as the Lower Highs trend-line.
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PALLADIUM Double bottom calls for a buy after the 1W MA50 breaksWe recently (August 06, see chart below) made a multi-year projection on the trend of Palladium (XPDUSD) as we saw a cyclical bottom buy opportunity that takes place roughly every 6-7 years:
This opportunity has been confirmed even on the lower 1D time-frame where the price made a Double Bottom. What's left to conclude the bullish break-out signal is a break above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which has been holding as a Resistance for almost 2 years (since October 14 2022). If that happens, it will also be a break above the 8-month Lower Highs trend-line.
At the same time of that potential 1W MA50 break-out, we should form a 1D Golden Cross, which is a pattern we haven't see since March 10 2022.
As a result, when the 1W MA50 breaks, you can buy with more confidence long-term. Our 1st Target will be 1250 (Resistance 2) and 2nd at 1400 (just below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level).
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COPPER Rejected on the 1D MA50. Will it rebound or break lower?Copper (HG1!) got rejected yesterday on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since early July. This is a clear Bearish Leg on a potential Channel Up pattern, so technically, it may form a bottom on its Higher Lows trend-line and rebound.
If it does, our Target will be the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at 4.900 as on the January 17 2023 rebound. If on the other hand the price breaks below 3.800 and the Higher Lows (dotted) trend-line, we will take the loss on the buy and sell, targeting 3.3500 (top of 2 year Support Zone).
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