XAUUSD Ideal level to start selling.Gold (XAUUSD) is being rejected since Friday right at the top of the emerging Channel Down and that is a Lower High. Even though Gold has officially started a new long-term Bull Cycle, it doesn't mean that the market won't deliver medium-term corrections that are technically much needed in order to get the trend going.
Quite the contrary, the current Bullish Megaphone resembles the pattern of November 2022 - May 2023, which after holding the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) half-way through, it eventually topped and broke below it, testing after that even the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
We will not speculate on such a long horizon but on the medium-term we do see this Channel Down or better yet Bearish Leg of the Bullish Megaphone eventually breaking below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and testing the 0.382 Fibonacci as part of a natural and healthy correction that will attract long-term buyers again and resume the bullish trend.
As a result, we turn bearih again today, targeting 2200 (Fib 0.382).
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Commoditysignals
WTI OIL Will it continue to drop?WTI Oil (USOIL) gave us an excellent sell signal last week (April 29, see chart below) following the first 4H Death Cross since October 10 2023, which easily hit our Target:
We now need to look at the longer-term time-frames for clues on the direction as short-term it turned bearish. Looking at the 1D time-frame though, we can clearly see that WTI is on a strong Support Cluster consisting of the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The Higher Lows trend-line that started on the December 13 2023 bottom, is just below.
With the 1D RSI hitting its 30.00 oversold level and rebounded, we are bullish short-term, targeting 84.00 (the Lower Highs trend-line). If however we close a 1D candle below the Higher Lows, we will take the loss and turn bearish instead, targeting 71.00 (the 0.236 Fibonacci and just above the 3-year Higher Lows Zone. The risk is low on this strategy.
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XAUUSD This correction is far from over. What the US10Y shows.Gold (XAUUSD) completed on Friday the 2nd straight red 1W (weekly) candle for the first time since mid February. That was when the enormous 9 week rally started that only had to show 1 red week. Even though the long-term pattern is a Bullish Megaphone, the bad news for Gold is that this correction may be far from over and the US10Y (orange trend-line) makes a good case out of it.
The last time Gold was trading within a Megaphone and started to decline while the US10Y was rising (negatively correlated) was after the May 01 2023 High. As you can see, that was when the yellow metal started a slow and steady decline first to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (where it had its first rebound) and then just above the 0.618 Fib (where it bottomed and started the new Megaphone). Notice how despite the aggressive rise on the US10Y at the time, Gold had a steady decline.
Due to having entered a new long-term Bull Cycle, we don't expect it reaching prices this low but technically a pull-back to the 0.382 Fib would be a very healthy correction of the early 2024 rally. As a result our medium-term Target is 2200.
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XAUUSD Failed to reclaim the 4H MA50. Strong decline ahead.We expand on our April 15 idea (see chart below) on Gold (XAUUSD), where we discussed the 'necessity' for a medium-term technical pull-back based on its 5-year Cycles:
As you can see that correction happened and the new Bearish Leg of the long-term Bullish Megaphone is well underway. The price got rejected both yesterday and on Friday on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), while forming the first 4H MA50/100 Bearish Cross since February 13 2024.
We expect the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) to be tested shortly but the correction shouldn't stop there. It will either take the long way within the dashed Channel Down towards 2200 or hit that level earlier within the more aggressive blue Channel Down that will seek the dashed bold Higher Lows trend-line. Either way, our medium-term Target is 2200.
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WTI OIL 1st 4H Death Cross in 7 months. Will it turn bearish?WTI Oil (USOIL) made a solid (Higher) Low at the bottom of the Channel Up pattern and started rising as we discussed on our previous idea (April 22, see chart below):
We now need to take it a time-frame lower to 4H as on Friday the market formed the first 4H Death Cross (4H MA50 crossing below the 4H MA200) in almost 7 months (since October 10 2023). This has the capacity to invalidate the current 4-month bullish trend but only if Oil closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line).
As long as it doesn't, we remain bullish on WTI, targeting 94.00, which is at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up and marginally below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which is where the previous Higher High peaked.
At the same time, this is where the the previous Channel Up of July - September 2023 made the symmetrical Higher High, relative to the current proportion. As you can see, there is a strong degree of symmetry between the two fractals, even in terms of RSI, with the only notable difference (which as mentioned can be critical), being the 4H Death Cross.
If the price does close that 1D candle below the 1D MA50, we will take the loss on the buy and go short instead, targeting 78.00 (just above Support 1).
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XAUUSDGold time frame 4 hours
According to our analysis, we expect the price to reach our range and wait for the price reaction from there. In the 4-hour time frame, the trend has changed, so short trades have a higher percentage of profit than long trades. It is better to enter short trades to reach a strong demand range.
GASOLINE Short-term buy. Sell at the right time.Gasoline (RB1!) is on a 3-day bullish 1D candle run after testing and holding the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) this week for the first time since February 05. On the wider scale, this is the Bullish Leg of the 18-month Channel Down and it is approaching its top (Lower Highs trend-line).
As you can see, the Bullish Legs of this pattern share a certain degree of symmetry, so as it happened on April 12 2023, we expect the new Lower High to be priced near the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. That will also touch the internal Higher Highs trend-line. The symmetrical 1D MACD Bullish Cross of March 27 2023, was a signal that the Bullish Leg will soon come to an end.
As a result, on the 1.236 Fib we will turn bearish and target the bottom of the (dotted) Channel Up at 2.6000.
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XPDUSD Monumental buy at the bottom of the 6-year Cycle.Palladium (XPDUSD) is in the process of forming an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern as it approaches its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been unbroken as a Resistance since the week of October 10 2022. Once the 1W MA50 breaks, we will have a confirmed buy signal, whose first emergence was when the 1W RSI formed Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows, which is a Bullish Divergence.
We can see that this bottom is on a 6-year Cycle as the previous ones (January 11 2026 and December 01 2008) also took place on a 1W RSI Bullish Divergence forming an IH&S pattern. We expect Palladium to reach at least the 'Russia-Ukraine war peak' at 3450 by late 2025 the earliest or late 2027 the latest.
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Rising into 50% Fibonacci retracement resistance?XAG/USD is rising towards a resistance level which has been identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 27.861
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 28.872
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
Take profit: 26.399
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
XPTUSD Strong Higher Low buy opportunity. 1D Golden Cross formedPlatinum (XPTUSD) gave us an excellent bottom buy signal last time (March 13, see chart below), as the metal entered a Channel Up pattern following the bottom just below 880.00:
Currently we are on the 2nd Bearish Leg of the Bullish Megaphone pattern that emerged and will complete a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame today. As per the December 02 2023 Golden Cross, which was formed after a similar rebound, but on a more aggressive Channel Up instead of a Megaphone, we should be expecting another Higher High near the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. Our Target is 1060.
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XAG/USD rising towards 50% Fibo resistance, could it reverse?Price is rising towards a resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 27.861
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 28.872
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
Take profit: 26.399
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
XAUUSD Technical profit taking started.Last week (April 15, see chart below), we discussed the 'necessity' of Gold (XAUUSD) for a medium-term technical pull-back based on its 5-year Cycles:
As you can see, we did get indeed the expected rejection at the top on Friday and this week we have started with almost a -5% already. The 1D RSI Double Topped on overbought territory and now is on a Lower Low. This RSI pattern since the October 06 2023 Low is very similar to the sequence that started on November 03 2022. As you can see on both occasions, Gold traded on Bullish Megaphones.
The 2022/23 Megaphone hit the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) once its RSI started printing the correction sequence it has now. In fact the 1D MA100 provided the last bounce on both Megaphones (February 14 2024 and March 09 2023).
As a result, we remain bearish on Gold, targeting 2200 (0.382 Fib and potential contact with the 1D MA200) on the medium-term. Ideally, the best level to buy again for the long-term would be when the 1D RSI hits the oversold barrier (30.00) again, but until then we will follow up with many updates.
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WTI OIL On the 1D MA50 & bottom of the Channel Up.WTI Oil (USOIL) hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) today for the first time since February 07 and touched the bottom of the long-term Channel Up, forming a Higher Low. This is only 2 weeks after the formation of a 1D Golden Cross, the first since August 22 2023.
That Golden Cross was also formed during a correction, which eventually kept the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) intact and initiated a new Bullish Leg towards the 2.0 and 2.382 Fibonacci extensions.
As a result, we remain bullish as long as Oil closes 1D candles above the 1D MA200, and target $94.00 (Fib 2.0 ext). If it closes even a single candle below it, we expect a new long-term Channel Down, similar to the one that was initiated after the September 28 2023 High, and we will take the small loss, open a short and target 71.50 (Support 1).
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COPPER New Bull Cycle confirmed. 6.7600 possible.Copper (HG1!) has emphatically broken above the last Resistance of the 2-year Bear Cycle as it smashed through the top of the long-term Triangle pattern. The same pattern kept Copper on a Bear Cycle up until June 2020 when it started the remarkable rally to the 5.000 High (1.786 Fibonacci extension).
As you can see on both fractals, the formation of a Death Cross on the 1W time-frame signaled the bottom (Feb-March 2020 is the COVID crash exception, if that hadn't happened, the Triangle could have even broken upwards earlier).
Our minimum Target on the emerging (green) Channel Up is 6.7600 (Fibonacci 1.618 extension).
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NATURAL GAS Can turn bullish on the short-term.Natural Gas (NG1!) has been posting Higher Lows, three so far since the February 20 Low, despite the fact that it remains within a Channel Down since the October 27 2023 High. This might be a short-term trend change similar to the Channel Up that started on the April 14 2023 Low following a sharp and long-term selling sequence. Notice also the Higher Lows Bullish Divergence on the 1D RSI patterns.
As long as the bottom of the (dotted) Channel Up holds, we will be bullish short-term, targeting the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) at 2.050. If the bottom of the Channel Down breaks, we will turn bearish, targeting the Lower Lows trend-line at 1.400. The risk is low on both sides.
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XAGUSD New Bull Cycle but pull-back possible. Buy it.Silver (XAGUSD) easily broke through the 25.000 Target we set 2 months ago (February 15, see chart below) and invalidated the Triangle pattern as it is entering into a new long-term Bull Cycle:
This was achieved as it broke above the 2-year Resistance Zone 1 and the Triangle transitioned into a Channel Up. Last week it hit Resistance Zone 2 and technically we should be expecting a medium-term pull-back as this is close to the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up. Note that Resistance Zone 2 was formed after the August 2020 High.
We are looking for a buy within 26.500 - 26.000 to target the top of the Channel at 32.000. A Resistance Zone 2 break-out practically confirms the new Bull Cycle. We have to point out also the the 1W RSI broke last week above the 70.00 overbought barrier and is at the highest level since September 2020.
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XAUUSD Is this a legitimate correction?There is no doubt that Gold (XAUUSD) has entered a new Bull Cycle after last month's bullish break-out. Last week though it closed its 1W candle almost on a Doji which can potentially be a trend reversal, at least on the short-term.
As you can see on this 1W chart, which displays the similarities between the previous Cycle and the current, such 1W candles have been on global market tops: May 01 2023, January 16 2023, March 07 2022 etc.
If we are indeed at the phase past the Accumulation (Rectangle pattern) simular to February 2020, then we can expect a short-term correction. Of course the March 2020 price collapse that touched the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) had solely to do with the COVID asset-wide crash. Still though, in February 2020, the market posted a red 1W candle that erased the gains of two weeks in a row.
As a result, if the current week doesn't post a new High, we expect a pull-back towards at least 2250. Beyond that, in order to approach the 1W MA50 again, we need a fundamental catalyst.
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WTI OIL Consolidation before rise to $91.50.WTI Oil (USOIL) is trading within a Channel Up pattern since the January 28 High supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) - 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) Zone. The Bullish Legs have so far recorded rises within a +8.24% to +10.24% range.
Right now it appears that Oil has finished the latest Bullish Leg as the 4H RSI made its standard Peak formation and declined. According to the previous RSI patterns, this decline is the most optimal buy entry.
Now we should be expecting a consolidation around the 4H MA50 and not lower than the 4H MA200 before the next rally. Taking the lowest +8.24% rise scenario, we are targeting for a minimum Higher High at 91.50.
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XAUUSD Bullish extension expected. Unless this level breaks.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a very aggressive (blue) Channel Up, which today hit the top of the logarithmic (dotted) 6-month Channel Up. If it is indeed symmetric with the first Bullish Leg of that Channel Up, then it is close to completing a +10.60% rise which should call for a 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) pull-back.
As a result we expect a quick fall to 2305 and then sharp rebound targeting 2500, for a new Higher High on the (blue) Channel Up. If however the price closes below the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), which has been supporting since February 23 2024, and Support 1 (2270), we will sell for the medium-term and target 2150 (Support 2), near the bottom of the (dotted) 6-month Channel Up, which will be a very comfortable buy entry for the long-term.
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XAUUSD New Bull Cycle mapped! Approaching first Resistance Zone?Gold (XAUUSD) has technically started its new Bull Cycle after breaking above the Resistance and previous All Time High (ATH) into green overbought territory. Being overbought in such instances isn't necessarily bearish but suggests that even though the long-term trend is now heavily bullish (and should be for the next year or so), we should look for key Resistances to offer relief pull-backs.
As you can see on this 1W chart, there are strong similarities of the current Cycle (both Bear and Bull) with the previous one (June 2016 - August 2020). The Bear Cycle's come in the form of Cup patterns, while the Bull Cycles start on Channel Up patterns at the bottom of the Bear ones. During the previous Bull Cycle, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has supported all the way from its bullish break-out (December 24 2018) until deep into the next Bear (February 01 2021).
Right now the 1W MA50 has been supporting since October 09 2023, which is shortly after the dashed Channel Up started. That is an important pattern as it currently has a maximum upside to 2350 for a Higher High. The dotted Channel Up on the contrary, which was initiated at the bottom of the Bear Cycle has already touched its Higher High.
This means that Gold's new Bull Cycle is facing its first significant Resistance Zone of the current run: 2300 - 2350. Relative to the previous Bull Cycle, Gold had it's first Resistance rejection on August 26 2019, making a Higher High and started to pull-back for almost 100 days (3 months). As the current bullish trend is significantly stronger than the 2019 one, the dashed Channel Up being narrower, I doubt that Gold will correct for that long, but on the next red 1W candle, we have to consider the possibility for a short-term correction.
The August 2019 one pulled as low as the previous High before the rejection (bold black line). This suggests that 2220 - 2200 is Gold's floor at the moment and shouldn't be broken. Back to its overbought status, the 1W RSI gives a clear indication of that. Once it starts reversing inside an Arc pattern, we will confirm the correction we're discussing now. And after it forms systematically Lower Highs on quarterly intervals, we can expect by the 3rd Lower High to be close to the Top of the Bull Cycle.
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XAUUSD target hit. Now expect a 2100 reversal.Gold (XAUUSD) hit this morning our long-term 2260 Target, which we called for on our March 2021 (see chart below) idea:
That not only made a Higher High formation at the top of the 5-month Channel Up that started on the November 03 2023 Low but also hit the symmetrical 1.382 Fibonacci extension as the last Higher High on May 04 2023.
This has indeed been a long rise for Gold, which is now looking ahead of an equally lengthy correction, assuming the Channel Up and its top stay intact. If they do, we expect a 6-8 week pull-back below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and towards the 0.618 Fibonacci extension from Gold's last Low.
That gives us a 2100 Target, which could make contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since November 13 2023.
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XAUUSD Bullish unless this trend-line breaks.Gold (XAUUSD) is on a short-term uptrend on the 1H time-frame as it is supported by a Higher Lows trend-line since Friday's bottom. As long as this trend-line holds, we are bullish, targeting 2220 (marginally below Resistance 1).
If the price breaks and closes a 1H candle below the Higher Lows trend-line, we will see and target 2150 (marginally above Support 1).
We follow this break-out approach as it was exactly what Gold did on March 20, after it broke above the Lower Highs trend-line and turned aggressively bullish.
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WTI OIL Strong sell aheadWTI Oil (USOIL) eventually held the short-term uptrend within the Bullish Leg of the Channel Up and hit our 81.85 Target, as explained on our last idea (March 14 2024, see chart below):
Moving out to the 1D time-frame, we can see that the price has started to pull-back after reaching the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up pattern. In addition, it was rejected on the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line).
As the 1D MACD formed a Bearish Cross, selling may start to gain momentum and transition into the new Bearish Leg. The previous one hit the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the top. It also made the last contact with the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which has been Oil's multi-year Support.
As a result, we are now turning bearish on WTI, targeting the 0.618 Fib at 76.00.
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