XAUUSD New uptrend has startedGold crossed over the MA50 4H and invalidated the Channel Down.
This rise is strong as it started on a Double Bottom.
The price already filled the 0.382 Fibonacci level.
Trading Plan:
1. Every pull-back near the MA50 4H starting from now.
Targets:
1. 1870 (which is a little under Fibonacci 0.786 and on a projected course with the MA200 4H). Close the trade earlier though if it hits the MA50 1D earlier.
Tips:
1. The RSI 4H is entering a 1 month Resistance. Use this to anticipate when the price might pull back in order to either take short term profits or be ready for buying price pull backs.
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Commoditytrading
Australia and Canada post mildly disappointing GDP resultsIncreasing living costs saw Australia’s GDP just add 0.5% in the quarter, slightly lower than the expected 0.7%, with AUD/USD sliding 6 pips to 0.6728. In Canada, its monthly GDP readings also fell short of Mitrade's estimates at -0.1%, as USD/CAD climbed 70 pips to 1.3645.
EUR/USD decreased 31 pips to 1.0576, and GBP/USD lost 44 pips to 1.2020. USD/JPY was down 4 pips at 136.16.
On Tuesday, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 15 points (-0.13%) to 12,042, posting the least deficit. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 232 points (-0.71%) to 32,656, and the S&P 500 fell 12 points (-0.30%) to 3,970.
Spot gold jumped $9 to $1,826.78 an ounce, and WTI oil futures gained $1.37 to $77.05 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum were trading lower at $23,163.0 and $1,606.63 respectively.
XAUUSD Short term buy signal by the RSIXAUUSD didn't just break over the 4hour MA50 today but what few are seeing is that the 1day RSI crossed over its MA as well. The last three times this has happened, Gold came very close or even hit the 1day MA50, even when it was on a downtrend.
The lowest rise was 2.75% and based on that worst case scenario we are long and have a 1855 target.
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Slow GDP growth expected from CanadaLater tonight, Mitrade expects Canada's month-on-month GDP to record 0.1% growth. Meanwhile, USD/CAD fell 34 pips to 1.3575, and USD/JPY closed 26 pips lower at 136.20.
This morning, Australia's retail sales were slightly higher at 1.9%, as AUD/USD moved up 9 pips to 0.6734. EUR/USD added 61 pips to 1.0607, and GBP/USD surged 118 pips to 1.2062.
The stock market is recovering from previous sessions, with the Nasdaq 100 gaining 88 points (+0.74%) to 12,057. The S&P 500 rose 12 points (+0.31%) to 3,982, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 72 points (+0.22%) to 32,889.
Spot gold gained $5.68 to $1,817.28 an ounce, and WTI oil futures declined $0.64 to $75.68 a barrel. Bitcoin traded slightly higher to $23,380, as Ethereum decreased to $1,627.30.
Oil Sell setup 320 pipsThis setup is based on previous oil analysis, so we see price retracing to 61.8% fib level which also act as a high resistance level, so shall see a continutaion to downside
check the previous analysis for continuation to downside on link below
Nice risk to reward
Hope you guys enjoy the rest of week
Major US indices posted the highest weekly losses in 2023Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve meeting minutes had sent the stock falling. The Nasdaq 100 was down 3.14% in the past week. The Dow and the S&P 500 also lost 2.99% and 2.67% respectively, which were the highest weekly losses in 2023 for all three indices.
On Friday, the Nasdaq 100 plunged 210 points (-1.73%) to 11,969. The S&P 500 lost 42 points (-1.05%) to 3,970, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell 336 points (-1.02%) to 32,816.
Prospects for more aggressive rate hikes fuelled the greenback. EUR/USD slid 49 pips to 1.0546, and AUD/USD declined 82 pips to 0.6725. GBP/USD dropped below the 1.2000 level, losing 69 pips to 1.1944. USD/CAD added 62 pips to 1.3609, and USD/JPY surged 176 pips to 136.46.
Spot gold declined more than $10 to $1,811.6 an ounce, while WTI oil futures traded $1.20 higher to $76.32 a barrel. Bitcoin just recovered to $23,538.0, and Ethereum rebounded to $1,642.62.
Natural Gas prints an RSI bullish divergence As you can see in the chart, natural gas had a big downside movement for the last months. Now It looks like the bottom is printed so I will consider entering a long here with targets 3.11$ and 4.69$ .
You can see apart from the Bullish Divergence that It is starting to show a lot of strength, you can observe a gap-up between 2.314$ and 2.415$.
For the buy setup I will enter now and set an stop loss order under the gap. If the position goes well, I will keep locking profits manually trailing the stop under key areas.
Don't forget to share your thoughts on the comments and happy emotionless trading.
US GDP growth less than expectedOn Thursday, US quarter-on-quarter GDP reported a 2.7% increase, over market estimates of 2.9%. The US dollar then weakened with USD/CAD moving down 2 pips to 1.3547, and USD/JPY falling 20 pips to 134.70.
Meanwhile, EUR/USD declined 6 pips to 1.0595, as the Eurozone year-on-year inflation rate rose 8.6% as Mitrade has expected. GBP/USD dropped 31 pips to 1.2013, and AUD/USD traded 4 pips higher to 0.6807.
To prepare for a possible decline in oil production, US Crude Oil Inventories added 7.648 million barrels, though WTI oil futures added $1.44 to $75.39 a barrel. Bitcoin is trading lower at $24,073.0, and Ethereum just climbed to $1,659.52.
The Nasdaq 100 surged 113 points (+0.94%) to 12,180. The S&P 500 rose 21 points (+0.53%) to 4,012, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also gained 108 points (+0.33%) to 33,153.
Fed minutes signal more rate hikes in 2023The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes reveal they continue to believe ongoing interest rate increases will be appropriate to combat inflation, with the target rate range set at 2%. This raised the risk-aversion mood in the market while strengthening the dollar. USD/CAD added 12 pips to 1.3549, but USD/JPY slid 9 pips to 134.90.
Germany's year-on-year inflation rate in February was 8.7% as Mitrade estimates. EUR/USD then fell 45 pips to 1.0601. GBP/USD dropped 71 pips to 1.2044, and AUD/USD decreased 49 pips to 0.6803.
Spot gold plunged almost $10 to $1,825.29 an ounce, and WTI oil futures declined $2.41 to $73.95 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum closed lower at $24,150.0 and $1,641.40 respectively.
The Nasdaq 100 closed 5 points higher (+0.05%) at 12,066. On the other hand, the S&P 500 lost 6 points (-0.16%) to 3,991 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 84 points (-0.26%) to 33,045.
OIL(USoil ) massive sell off incoming 430 PipsWe clearly see a nice daily downward trend and price still respecting the lower high level which is also in confluence with EMA pointing downward, showing still continuation
As we move down to lower timeframe like H4 and H1 we see price breaking structure to downside and current price is testing it as resistance
also it respecting the 50% fib level we could see a fake-out to grab liquidity to downside, so wait for a nice reversal candlestick and bearish volume
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US equity markets post worst performance in 2023As the market awaits the latest minutes from the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, recent strong economic data raised Mitradess anticipation for more Fed hawkish measures. The US 10-year Treasury yield then rebounded 13.8 basis points to 3.953%, sending spot gold $6 lower to $1,835.04 an ounce.
Therefore, the US stock market dropped over 2% on Tuesday, the poorest performance year in 2023 so far, with the Nasdaq 100 plunging 297 points (-2.41%) to 12,060. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell 697 points (-2.06%) to 33,129, and the S&P 500 lost 81 points (-2.00%) to 3,997.
EUR/USD dropped 36 pips to 1.0646, and AUD/USD fell 53 pips to 0.6852, but GBP/USD rose 77 pips to 1.2115. USD/CAD surged 86 pips to 1.3537, and Canada recorded a 0.3% month-on-month increase in its core inflation levels. USD/JPY added 76 pips to 134.99.
WTI oil futures closed slightly lower at $76.36 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum were last traded lower at $24,316.0 and $1,644.19 respectively.
Extended inflation expected in Canada and EuropeOn Washington's Birthday, US President Joe Biden paid a surprise visit to Kyiv, reiterating his unwavering support for Ukraine against the Russian invasion. From military equipment and economic aid, to further sanctions on Russia, they will likely impact the global economy soon.
The US stock market remains closed. Later today, Mtrade expects inflation readings in Canada, Germany, and the UK to increase, with Canada's Core CPI jumping from -0.3% to 0.2%. USD/CAD then fell 19 pips to 1.3451.
Meanwhile, EUR/USD moved down 12 pips to 1.0682, and GBP/USD traded 3 pips higher to 1.2038. AUD/USD rose 26 pips to 0.6905, and USD/JPY added 7 pips to 134.23.
Spot gold slid $2 to $1,841.36 an ounce, and WTI crude futures saw a minor $0.86 uptick to $77.41 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum climbed steadily to $24,856.0 and $1,706.81 respectively.
US30 Sell setup 500 PipsBased on the H4 timeframe we seeing price action indicating a shift of momentum to downside as we break the H4 high low, currently the price has retraced to 50% fib level in both H4 and H1
This is also in confluence with other indicator like EMA cross over to downside and also supporting the previous support now got reject has resistance
Nice risk to reward
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USOIL Outlook - Bearish Sentiment .USOIL has been in a free-fall since I shorted at 127.00 (POI). Price is now where it broke structure at 77.00. I'm expecting it drop further to my LIQ SWEEP area (where it sweep liquidity to the downside).
My POI (Point Of Interest) is 4.50. I'm looking for BUY at that level.
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Patience is KING!!!
Hawkish Fed backed by resilient economic dataUS Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 194,000 against an estimate of 200,000. Combined with a growing Producer Price Index and relatively hawkish comments from Fed officials, Mitrade now expects more significant rate hikes to combat inflation.
As a result, the greenback strengthened against most of its peers. EUR/USD fell 21 pips to 1.0668, and GBP/USD lost 33 pips to 1.1993. Australia recorded an 11,500 decrease in employment, as AUD/USD lost 27 pips to 0.6876. USD/CAD climbed 64 pips to 1.3456, and USD/JPY slid 17 pips to 133.94.
Spot gold and WTI oil futures suffered minor losses to close at $1,836.49 an ounce and $78.49 a barrel respectively. Bitcoin lost momentum and dropped to $23,753.0, whereas Ethereum was last traded at $1,658.62.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 1.26% to 33,696. The S&P 500 declined 57 points to 4,090, and the Nasdaq 100 lost 245 points to 12,442.
XAUUSD: Near a sell entryGold is trading inside a Channel Down on a technically bearish 4H time frame (RSI = 42.428, MACD = -8.260, ADX = 23.790). Every time the price rises near the 4H MA50, it gets rejected, makng it the technical Resistance.
The structure of this Channel Down is as follows: First the price drops by -2.00%, then it rises by +1.00% and repeat. The rise is being carried out by a short term Channel Up. Right now the price is inside such a Channel Up and is approaching the +1.00% rejection point. We are short on this one, targeting another -2.00% decline (TP = 1,812.50).
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Bitcoin rebounded to an eight-month highThe dollar strengthened amidst strong US retail sales data, but cryptocurrencies managed to recover significantly. Bitcoin jumped over 9% to $24,300, the highest level since June 2022. Ethereum also surged over $140 to $1,688.18.
US retail sales recorded a 3.0% growth in January. This outperformed Mitrade's estimates of 1.8%. This allowed USD/CAD to climb 58 pips to 1.3392, and USD/JPY 100 pips higher at 134.11.
Although the UK year-on-year inflation rate slightly slowed to 10.1%, GBP/USD still plunged 144 pips to 1.2026. EUR/USD declined 46 pips to 1.0689, and AUD/USD dropped 82 pips to 0.6903.
Spot gold fell $18.5 to $1,835.97 an ounce. As the US added over 16 million barrels to its crude oil inventories, WTI oil futures traded $0.47 lower at $78.59 a barrel.
The Nasdaq 100 increased 97 points (+0.77%) to 12,687 thanks to a rally among major tech shares. The S&P 500 rose 11 points (+0.28%) to 4,147, and the Dow added 38 points (+0.11%) to 34,128.
NATURAL GAS: Short term buy signal may be emerging.Natural Gas is very bearish on the 1D time frame (RSI = 36.041, MACD = -0.435, ADX = 40.625) with the RSI a few days back even oversold as since the December 15th Triple Top it has been falling non-stop.
That fall was initiated not just because of the Triple Top but also because of the RSI's Lower Highs (LH), which flashed a Bearish Divergence.
The price this month has been ranging sideways within the 2.340 Support and the 2.655 Resistance. Being this time on a Triple Bottom and with the RSI on HL (Higher Lows) we expect a short term rise to start if the price crosses the 4H MA100, which is untouched in 2 months. We will target the 4H MA200 (TP = 3.000).
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XAGUSD: Bearish. Has more space to drop before a rebound.Silver is completely bearish on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 30.745, MACD = -0.501, ADX = 35.018) with the RSI almost oversold. The long term pattern since early 2021 is a Channel Down and the last time inside this pattern the 1D RSI hit 30.000 was on September 1st 2022, which was a market bottom and Lower Low on the Channe Down.
In order to help us get a better understanding if this is a buy zone, we have identified all other times the the 1D RSI broke below 30.000. Those circles as shown on the chart, most of the times have made the price rebound instantly and hit the 1D MA50 but on two occassions, the price dipped significantly more before it rebounded. One was on April 27th 2022, which was a sequence similar to what we experience today as the price was also coming off a Lower High on this multi year Channel Down.
The blue zone that supported the initial peak fall on the 1D MA200 during the June 18th 2021 oversold RSI, didn't do so in April 2022 and XAGUSD fell significantly more to almost reach the 0.786 Fibonacci level, before making the bounce to almost hit the 1D MA50. The 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci Zone (green zone) held in 2021 as well.
Our long term strategy on Silver is based exactly on this. We will buy on the 4H MA200 and will target the 1D MA50 (TP = 22.500) but if the price crosses under the blue zone, we will take the loss and short to the middle of the green zone, where we'll take a short term buy again to the 1D MA50. The risk is low due to the SL placement while the reward is high.
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Market slows after US inflation dataThe latest inflation data from the US mostly met market estimates, with an annual rate of 6.4% slightly higher than expected. The readings were still well above the Federal Reserve's inflation targets, so investors expected more rate hikes in 2023.
Meanwhile, USD/CAD moved up 4 pips to 1.3334, and USD/JPY rose 71 pips to 133.11. GBP/USD climbed 32 pips to 1.2170. Mitrade projected the UK inflation rate to rise by 10.3% year-over-year. EUR/USD added 15 pips to 1.0735, and AUD/USD gained 20 pips to 0.6985.
The stock market closed with mixed results. The Nasdaq 100 increased 88 points (+0.71%) to 12,590. The S&P 500 only slid 1 point (-0.03%) to 4,136, and the Dow lost 156 points (-0.46%) to 34,089.
Spot gold increased $1 at $1,854.47 an ounce, and WTI crude futures declined $1.00 to $79.06 a barrel. Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading higher at $22,126.0 and $1,547.71 respectively.
XAUUSD: 4H Death Cross is triggering a sell off.Gold formed a Death Cross on 4H turning bearish both on 4H (RSI = 38.637, MACD = -8.760, ADX = 19.351) and the 1D time frames (RSI = 40.973, MACD = -1.230, ADX = 37.908). If the February 02 Top is anything like April 2022 top as we brought to you with the following idea, then a break down of the 4H Death Cross of that period and comparison with today's may be indicative of the price action that will follow:
Both Death Cross patterns were formed while the RSI was on HL, a Bullish Divergence with the candles' LL. This indicates that one last rebound to the 4H MA50 will follow with a rejection down to the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. We are selling with TP = 1,825.
Both falls from the top up to the Low before the Death Cross were exactly the same (-5.25%). The rebound that was rejected on the 4H MA50 on April 29th 2022 dropped another -6.80%, below the 1D MA200. It never broke over the 0.618 Fibonacci or the 4H MA200. If this periods new fall is of the same magnitude as -5.25% was, then the price can drop to even 1,760. But best to settle for a TP = 1,775 (over the 1D MA200) in case the 1.382 Fibonacci is crossed.
The fractal is negated with a bullish trigger above the 4H MA200. In that scenario the bullish trend changes back to long term buy and we will long TP = 1,950.
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