Fed unfazed by softened inflation dataEUR/USD 🔼
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Last week’s speech from Federal Reserve officials indicated the US central bank is still leaning towards using aggressive rate hikes to control inflation, though remains open to slowing the pace. Meanwhile, the stock market extended its rally, with the Nasdaq 100 adding over 210 points 11,817 being the best-performing index out of the three, the Dow also enjoyed a weekly gain of 4.15%.
Improved GDP reading in the UK led major currencies to recover against the greenback, GBP/USD climbed more than 120 pips to 1.1835. EUR/USD surged to 1.0352, gaining almost 150 pips, as Germany’s annual inflation reached 10.4% - aligning with marketing projections.
USD/JPY plunged below the key level of 140.00 to 138.79, losing over 230 pips, and USD/CAD declined to 1.3254. AUD/USD closed higher at 0.6702, the meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia will be announced tomorrow morning.
Spot gold increased to $1,771.42 an ounce, the highest level in over two months. WTI oil futures gained slightly to $88.96 a barrel, currently at $89.22.
Commoditytrading
Risk aversion increases amidst election and inflation suspenseEUR/USD 🔽
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The market is intently following the US midterms results, with the Republican party holding the upper hand for now. Later tonight, the upcoming CPI data is expected to record an 8.0% year-on-year increase - still far from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
As political and economic uncertainty looms, the stock market has ended its rally. The Nasdaq 100 dropped the most, losing 2.37% to 10,797. The safe haven greenback strengthened against its peers, USD/CAD rose above the 1.3500 level to 1.3526, and USD/JPY recovered to 146.44.
The euro/dollar pair slid near parity at 1.0011, and GBP/USD lost almost 190 pips and declined to 1.1356. As health concerns grew in China once again, AUD/USD decreased to 0.643. Bitcoin slumped further to 16,230.0 with a low of 15,702.
US Crude Oil Inventories increased by 3.92 million barrels - significantly higher than Mitrade's estimates of 1.360 million, WTI oil futures then closed at a three-week low of $85.83 a barrel. Gold price experienced minor fluctuations and closed lower at $1,707.04 an ounce.
Crypto tumbles upon FTX liquidity crunchEUR/USD 🔼
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As US midterm results are revealed one by one, the stock market has continued to rally while the dollar weakens. The Dow once again recorded the highest gains by increasing over 1% to 33,160, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose 0.56% and 0.75% respectively.
However, the crypto market suffered heavily upon the news that FTX’s liquidity crunch, followed by a possible bailout by rival exchange Binance. Bitcoin has plunged to a two-year low at 18,419.0, and Ethereum also fell to 1,326.21.
EUR/USD has remained above parity at 1.0072, and GBP/USD closed higher at 1.1536. AUD/USD enjoyed modest gains to 0.6503. USD/CAD decreased to 1.3426, and USD/JPY dropped further to 145.62.
Spot gold has gone past the $1,700.00 level to $1,712.48 an ounce. WTI oil futures retreated to $88.91 a barrel, Mitrade expects US crude oil inventories will increase by 1.36 million barrels.
Euro / Dollar pair returns above parityEUR/USD 🔼
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US mid-term elections have taken the spotlight for the day, as voting is currently underway. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms are reported to carry out large-scale layoffs to reduce costs, its stock prices gained 6.53% and led tech stocks and major indices in general to rally. The Dow has recorded the largest uptick of over 420 points, currently at 32,827.00.
EUR/USD has returned above parity at 1.0019, Mitrade expects the eurozone retail sales to turn positive with a 0.4% growth estimate. GBP/USD increased over 130 pips to 1.1511, and AUD/USD moved up slightly to 0.6478 upon lower consumer confidence levels.
USD/CAD closed higher at 1.3496, and USD/JPY was last traded at 146.62 with minimal gains.
Spot gold has recovered from a low of $1,667.15 to $1,675.38 an ounce, WTI oil futures briefly broke through $93.00 and slumped to $91.79 a barrel.
Iron ore hits record-low as demand drops By the end of 2022, the price of iron ore is expected to hit their lowest level in three or four years as global demand for the commodity continues to slow down, particularly from China, the world's largest consumer of iron ore.
In recent years, China has been cutting down its iron ore demand especially after the government placed restrictions on the industry to reduce carbon emissions. In 2021, the country's iron ore import fell to 1.12 billion tons from 1.17 billion tons in the prior-year period.
Expectations for 2022 from the production side are no better with Australia, the world's biggest exporter of iron ore, projecting a 0.6% drop in global steel output to 1.947 billion tons.
"Combined with growing global recessionary fears, new COVID-19 outbreaks and weakness in China's housing sector have dampened world steel and iron ore demand in recent months," the Australian government said in its October quarterly report.
A Reuters survey in October showed that prices are expected within the $90/ton to $115/ton range by the end of the year. MetalMiner data shows the price in early 2022 were at $160.30/ton at the beginning of Russia's war against Ukraine.
The decline comes despite forecasts of growth in the demand for iron ore through to 2026. The global market for iron ore is estimated to reach 2.7 billion metric tons, while production is expected to reach 3.17 billion metric tons.
Until definite signs of recovery are observed, maybe it is best to err on the side of caution regarding iron ore prices, especially considering the threats of a recession in Europe and the persisting problems in China's property sector, which could heavily impact on the demand for the key steelmaking ingredient.
US nonfarm payrolls exceed estimates againEUR/USD 🔼
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The latest US nonfarm payrolls data has reflected a tight labor market, increasing 261,000 jobs in October, against projections between 200,000 and 240,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has increased slightly to 3.7%, though the market expected only 3.6%.
However, brief hopes for China to lift pandemic-related restrictions have strengthened major currencies toward the greenback. EUR/USD climbed and stabilized at 0.996, edging toward parity. GBP/USD added almost 220 pips to 1.1375, the Aussie/dollar pair has gained the most by rising more than 3.0% to 0.6478.
USD/CAD dropped over 270 pips to 1.3478, and USD/JPY retreated to 146.59.
Both stocks and commodities have recovered, and all three major stock indices have increased over 1.2% on Friday. Spot gold jumped more than $50 to $1,681.38 an ounce, as WTI oil futures returned above the $90.00 level to $92.61 a barrel.
Bank of England raised rates by 75 basis pointsEUR/USD 🔽
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After the Federal Reserve’s 75 basis point rate hike, the Bank of England has followed suit - though notably less inclined to continue aggressive tightening, being warier of an economic recession. GBP/USD lost over 230 pips to a closing price of 1.1165, while EUR/USD slumped from a high of 0.9943 to 0.9751.
Later tonight, Mitrade anticipated the US Nonfarm Payrolls to increase employment by 200,000 displaying the resilience in the labor market, hence justifying the hawkish stance of the Fed. Recent rate hikes saw USD/CAD climbing to 1.3745, and USD/JPY rising over 30 pips to 148.27.
Due to China’s zero-COVID policy and continued tightening among global central banks, the gold price rebounded from a month-low of $1,617.05 to closed lower at $1,629.65 an ounce. The commodity-sensitive AUD/USD pair declined and stabilized at 0.6287, as WTI oil futures fell to $88.17 a barrel.
Market expects slowed US rate hikes in DecemberEUR/USD 🔽
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Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are to announce their interest rate decisions tomorrow, while sharing the same 75 basis points forecast. Upon some weakened economic indicator readings, Mitrade expects the two central banks would slow down on the rate hike next month.
As a result, the greenback has also put the brakes on its peers, EUR/USD closed lower at 0.9874, just recovered to 0.9885, and GBP/USD added slightly to 1.1483. Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 basis points to 2.85%, aligning with market projections.
USD/CAD rebounded to 1.3629, and USD/JPY declined and closed at 148.28.
Upon raising hopes for China to re-open its cities and factories, WTI oil futures increased to $88.37 a barrel. Later tonight, the US Crude Oil Inventories are estimated to add 367,000 barrels. Gold price climbed to $1,647.8 an ounce, after reaching a high of 1,655.14.
GOLD (XAU/USD): bearish perspective. When do we sell?Looking at the 4h-timeframe chart of Gold, the following can be observed: the price is pulling back to re-test the 1658 - 1659 area of previously penetrated support which now serves as a zone of resistance. The same area nicely lines up with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
Once that specific key zone is reached, we are looking into closely monitoring the price action and eyeing possible short positions.
The initial target is plotted on the graph.
Happy November!
The Dow recorded the highest monthly gain since 1976EUR/USD 🔽
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Yesterday, the stock market has returned to previous gains, and all major US indices recorded moderate losses. Although the Dow fell 128 points to 32,732, Mitrade observed it has also recorded the highest monthly gain for October at 13.95% - the highest since 1976.
Later today, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision, as AUD/USD recovered from a low of 0.6368 to close at 0.6397 with minor losses. EUR/USD declined to 0.9883, Eurozone inflation went higher to 10.7% on the year in October. GBP/USD has the steepest loss of almost 150 pips to 1.1469.
USD/CAD peaked at 1.3677 and retreated to 1.3622, while USD/JPY climbed and stabilized at 148.71.
Higher US oil production estimates and slowed Chinese manufacturing data have weakened oil prices, WTI oil futures fell to $86.53 a barrel. The imminent Federal Reserve rate hike sends gold prices down to $1,633.64 an ounce.
More controversies in the new Twitter regimeEUR/USD 🔽
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Despite the monthslong process, the drama between Elon Musk and Twitter is far from over, key executives were fired, and alleged conversations were leaked. Meanwhile, Twitter’s stock price is mostly trading flat at $53.70.
Major U.S. stock indexes have extended their gains by more than 2%. The Dow Jones has enjoyed a four-week winning streak, increasing 828 points (+2.59%) to 32,861, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 added 93 points and 354 points respectively.
USD/CAD climbed to 1.36, and USD/JPY increased 119 pips to 147.45.
EUR/USD continued to close below parity at 0.9963, currently at 0.9952. Later tonight, the Eurozone inflation rate is expected to record an annual increase of 10.2%. GBP/USD stabilized near the month-high level and closed at 1.161.
AUD/USD declined to 0.6411, as the Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its interest rate decision tomorrow, Mitrade has estimated a 25 basis points rate hike. Gold price slid further down to $1,642.76 an ounce, and WTI oil futures fluctuated and closed lower at $87.9 a barrel.
ECB raised rates by 75 basis pointsEUR/USD 🔽
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The latest interest rate decision from the European Central Bank aligned with market projections at 75 basis points, while the statement had indicated a more dovish approach to control inflation. Once again, EUR/USD plunged below parity to 0.9962. The British Pound fell to 1.1564 against the greenback, and AUD/USD closed lower at 0.6449.
On the other hand, Mitrade was informed that US GDP data exceeded expectations by growing 2.6% compared to the previous quarter, the strong readings displayed resilience in the US economy. As a result, the Federal Reserve should gain more confidence in announcing more aggressive rate hikes.
USD/CAD bounced back from a low of 1.3501 to 1.3563, and gold price suffered minor losses at $1,663.39 an ounce. WTI oil futures rose to a high of $89.61 and closed at $89.08 a barrel. In the stock market, Meta Platforms (META) was struck by a lackluster earnings report, which made its prices drop 24.56%, currently at 97.94.
Euro / Dollar returns above parityEUR/USD 🔼
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Underperforming earnings from tech giants Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) have sent major stock indices reeling. As Alphabet and Microsoft’s stock prices have dropped 9.14% and 7.72% respectively, signs of a slowed economy are likely to make the Federal Reserve slow down on the rate hikes in December.
Meanwhile, the news has also weakened the greenback, allowing EUR/USD to surge above parity and stabilized at 1.0077. Later this afternoon, Mitrade was informed that the European Central Bank is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points to 2.00 %. AUD/USD closed higher at 0.6497 with notable gains.
Although the British Parliament is still heavily divided as the new Prime Minister is in office, GBP/USD led its peers by adding over 150 pips to 1.1627. The Bank of Canada only increases its interest rate by 50 basis points - lower than the estimate of 75, USD/CAD fell to a low of 135.13 and recovered to 1.3551. USD/JPY declined further to 146.35.
With investors looking forward to a less hawkish Federal Reserve, gold prices rose steadily to $1,664.76 an ounce. Despite an increase in crude oil inventories by 2.59 million barrels, WTI oil futures have increased to $87.91 a barrel.
The Fed expected to ease rate hikes as the economy slowsEUR/USD 🔼
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Upon a series of US economic data failing to meet their estimates, the market now believes the Federal Reserve is bound to be less aggressive in next week’s interest rate announcement. The news has weakened the greenback against its peers, USD/CAD plunged to 1.3606, and USD/JPY declined to 147.91.
EUR/USD closed higher at 0.9964, edging closer back to parity. GBP/USD rose and stabilized at 1.1467, almost gaining 200 pips. Although Australia’s inflation problem is less severe than other major countries, it recorded a 1.8% increase in the price level - higher than the projected 1.6%, while AUD/USD rose to 0.6394.
Despite the API Weekly Crude Oil Inventory having increased by 4.5 million barrels, WTI crude futures only had minor gains, as it briefly went to $85.89 and closed at $85.32 barrel. Gold price rose to a high of $1,660.47 an ounce and retreated to $1,653.22.
Rishi Sunak wins the UK Prime Minister raceEUR/USD 🔼
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After his last competitor leaves the race, Rishi Sunak will soon become the new leader of the UK conservative party, also the nation’s Prime Minister. While the market looks forward to better financial stability in the UK, the British Pound has declined to 1.1275 against the US dollar.
While the Japanese government did not confirm a previous market intervention in its currency rate, USD/JPY had surged more than 140 pips and stabilized at 148.96. USD/CAD rose to 1.3704, investors expect a 75 bps rate hike from the Bank of Canada on Thursday.
EUR/USD closed at 0.9874 with minor gains, and the AUD/USD pair was last traded at 0.631, losing almost 70 pips. Gold price went below $1,650 to a closing price of $1,649.41 an ounce. Despite a slowed Chinese demand and a stronger greenback, WTI oil futures suffered only minimal losses at $84.58 a barrel.
The dollar retreated after possible Japanese interventionEUR/USD 🔼
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Last week, the Yen/Dollar pair have went above the 150.0 level, then it plunged to a low of 146.31 and recovered to 147.64. As the market believed the Bank of Japan had intervened to prevent further depreciation, more is expected ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Meanwhile, USD/CAD dropped to 1.3638.
In the UK, the race for the newly vacated position of Prime Minister is likely a two-horse race, upon the decision from Boris Johnson to withdraw his candidacy. GBP/USD rebounded from 1.1074 to 1.1302, as the Euro surged from 0.9713 to 0.986 versus the greenback.
AUD/USD met resistance at 0.6400 and closed at 0.6377. Gold price climbed almost $30 to 1,657.82 per ounce, thanks to a weakened dollar. WTI oil futures slightly increased to $85.05 a barrel.
Liz Truss resigns as UK Prime Minister EUR/USD 🔼
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British Prime Minister Liz Truss has resigned from her post, after mounting political and economic pressure. GBP/USD peaked at 1.1332 and last traded at 1.1233, domestic retail sales and services PMI data will be available later this afternoon.
Meanwhile, the euro retreated from a high of 0.9845 to 0.9783 versus the dollar, closing with minor gains, as AUD/USD slightly increased to 0.6275. USD/JPY finally went past the 150.0 level and stabilized, eventually closing at 150.14, the USD/CAD pair recovered from 1.3653 to 1.3763.
Gold price briefly went to $1,645.0 an ounce, and returned to 1,628.28, WTI oil futures traded lower at $84.51 a barrel.
High inflation and political crisis in the UKEUR/USD 🔽
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The new UK administration led by Liz Truss is under further scrutiny as the Home Secretary resigns, while price levels have risen by 10.1% last month - the highest level since 1990. Such news has brought down the British Pound to 1.1214 towards the US dollar. Eurozone also suffers from a 9.9% inflation rate, though slightly lower than the 10.0% forecast, EUR/USD declined to 0.9771.
Though the bond yield curve remains inverted, a rise in returns has fuelled the greenback's rise toward other major currencies. After minor oscillations, USD/CAD reached a closing price of 1.3764 with modest gains. USD/JPY is ever closer to the historical 150.0 level, after the currency pair closed at 149.89, and was last traded at 149.94.
Sluggish employment growth in Australia has surprised the market, original estimates were set for an increase of 25,000 jobs, but ended up with 9,000 only. As a result, AUD/USD fell from 0.6325 to 0.627. Gold price was weakened by the dollar’s strength, dropping to $1,629.16 an ounce. U.S. WTI crude futures climbed to $84.52, upon news of crude oil inventories depleting 1.72 million barrels.
Are You Seeing What I'm Seeing?Hey trader, I hope you're having a profitable week ;)
The price is currently running in the bearish H&S L2 as well as below the 50 and bearish crossed short-term MA's. Usually when the price is in a patterns L2, it drops (or rallies) for the L3 after closing with a reversal candle pattern or breaking and retesting the levels support/resistant. But for that to happen, the short-term MA's must be crossed in direction of the market maker patterns trend. So in this situation, both the pattern and MA's are supporting a bearish trend. But it may not occur. The price will reject the drop after it has bullish broke and retested the 3rd Monthly Key and 8 MA or the first trades stop loss key level. With that said, enter these trades at your own risk!
That's it for today. I hope you found value in this article. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section, I'd love to know your thoughts!
Stay Blessed Baby,
Sphatrades.
Double digits inflation is expected for Europe and the UKEUR/USD 🔼
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Later this afternoon, the latest inflation data for the Eurozone and the UK will be available, with the market expecting a 10% increase for both. While high inflation is likely to prompt respective central banks to tighten monetary policies further, their currencies have responded differently.
EUR/USD closed slightly higher at 0.9852, and the British Pound retreated from a high of 1.1404 to 1.1318 against the greenback.
Meanwhile, Canada will also announce its inflation readings, but projections are in the negative territory at -0.1%, higher than -0.3% in August. USD/CAD added 22 pips to 1.3738, as the US dollar climbs even higher towards the Japanese yen, the currency pair has increased steadily to 149.26.
As the dollar did not record any significant gains or losses from its peers, the gold price was allowed to rise to $1,652.01 an ounce. Upon news of the US releasing 15 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, WTI oil futures fell to $82.07 a barrel.
UK policy announcements fuels rally against the greenbackEUR/USD 🔼
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The new UK chancellor has scrapped more tax cuts in the "mini-budget", and slashed its energy subsidies. Although the new administration's grip on authority remains tenuous, the British Pound and Euro significantly managed to bounce back against the US dollar. GBP/USD reached a high of 1.1431, then retreated to 1.1353, while EUR/USD rose over 100 pips and closed at 0.9838.
Stocks also improved upon a return of risk appetite. The three major indices rebounded with notable gains, the biggest earner being the Nasdaq 100, which increased 370 points (+3.46%) to 11,062. Dow Jones and S&P 500 also added 1.86% and 2.65% respectively.
AUD/USD climbed and stabilized at 0.629, and the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained that moderate rate hikes are likely needed to control inflation. USD/CAD plunged almost 170 pips to 1.3709, and USD/JPY traded higher to a 32-year high of 149.03.
A weaker dollar sees the gold price last trading at $1,650.67 after a high of $1,666.4 an ounce. WTI oil futures closed slightly lower at $84.53 a barrel, citing Energy Information Administration's higher expectations in US oil production.