Rishi Sunak wins the UK Prime Minister raceEUR/USD 🔼
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After his last competitor leaves the race, Rishi Sunak will soon become the new leader of the UK conservative party, also the nation’s Prime Minister. While the market looks forward to better financial stability in the UK, the British Pound has declined to 1.1275 against the US dollar.
While the Japanese government did not confirm a previous market intervention in its currency rate, USD/JPY had surged more than 140 pips and stabilized at 148.96. USD/CAD rose to 1.3704, investors expect a 75 bps rate hike from the Bank of Canada on Thursday.
EUR/USD closed at 0.9874 with minor gains, and the AUD/USD pair was last traded at 0.631, losing almost 70 pips. Gold price went below $1,650 to a closing price of $1,649.41 an ounce. Despite a slowed Chinese demand and a stronger greenback, WTI oil futures suffered only minimal losses at $84.58 a barrel.
Commoditytrading
The dollar retreated after possible Japanese interventionEUR/USD 🔼
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Last week, the Yen/Dollar pair have went above the 150.0 level, then it plunged to a low of 146.31 and recovered to 147.64. As the market believed the Bank of Japan had intervened to prevent further depreciation, more is expected ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Meanwhile, USD/CAD dropped to 1.3638.
In the UK, the race for the newly vacated position of Prime Minister is likely a two-horse race, upon the decision from Boris Johnson to withdraw his candidacy. GBP/USD rebounded from 1.1074 to 1.1302, as the Euro surged from 0.9713 to 0.986 versus the greenback.
AUD/USD met resistance at 0.6400 and closed at 0.6377. Gold price climbed almost $30 to 1,657.82 per ounce, thanks to a weakened dollar. WTI oil futures slightly increased to $85.05 a barrel.
Liz Truss resigns as UK Prime Minister EUR/USD 🔼
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British Prime Minister Liz Truss has resigned from her post, after mounting political and economic pressure. GBP/USD peaked at 1.1332 and last traded at 1.1233, domestic retail sales and services PMI data will be available later this afternoon.
Meanwhile, the euro retreated from a high of 0.9845 to 0.9783 versus the dollar, closing with minor gains, as AUD/USD slightly increased to 0.6275. USD/JPY finally went past the 150.0 level and stabilized, eventually closing at 150.14, the USD/CAD pair recovered from 1.3653 to 1.3763.
Gold price briefly went to $1,645.0 an ounce, and returned to 1,628.28, WTI oil futures traded lower at $84.51 a barrel.
High inflation and political crisis in the UKEUR/USD 🔽
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The new UK administration led by Liz Truss is under further scrutiny as the Home Secretary resigns, while price levels have risen by 10.1% last month - the highest level since 1990. Such news has brought down the British Pound to 1.1214 towards the US dollar. Eurozone also suffers from a 9.9% inflation rate, though slightly lower than the 10.0% forecast, EUR/USD declined to 0.9771.
Though the bond yield curve remains inverted, a rise in returns has fuelled the greenback's rise toward other major currencies. After minor oscillations, USD/CAD reached a closing price of 1.3764 with modest gains. USD/JPY is ever closer to the historical 150.0 level, after the currency pair closed at 149.89, and was last traded at 149.94.
Sluggish employment growth in Australia has surprised the market, original estimates were set for an increase of 25,000 jobs, but ended up with 9,000 only. As a result, AUD/USD fell from 0.6325 to 0.627. Gold price was weakened by the dollar’s strength, dropping to $1,629.16 an ounce. U.S. WTI crude futures climbed to $84.52, upon news of crude oil inventories depleting 1.72 million barrels.
Are You Seeing What I'm Seeing?Hey trader, I hope you're having a profitable week ;)
The price is currently running in the bearish H&S L2 as well as below the 50 and bearish crossed short-term MA's. Usually when the price is in a patterns L2, it drops (or rallies) for the L3 after closing with a reversal candle pattern or breaking and retesting the levels support/resistant. But for that to happen, the short-term MA's must be crossed in direction of the market maker patterns trend. So in this situation, both the pattern and MA's are supporting a bearish trend. But it may not occur. The price will reject the drop after it has bullish broke and retested the 3rd Monthly Key and 8 MA or the first trades stop loss key level. With that said, enter these trades at your own risk!
That's it for today. I hope you found value in this article. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section, I'd love to know your thoughts!
Stay Blessed Baby,
Sphatrades.
Double digits inflation is expected for Europe and the UKEUR/USD 🔼
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Later this afternoon, the latest inflation data for the Eurozone and the UK will be available, with the market expecting a 10% increase for both. While high inflation is likely to prompt respective central banks to tighten monetary policies further, their currencies have responded differently.
EUR/USD closed slightly higher at 0.9852, and the British Pound retreated from a high of 1.1404 to 1.1318 against the greenback.
Meanwhile, Canada will also announce its inflation readings, but projections are in the negative territory at -0.1%, higher than -0.3% in August. USD/CAD added 22 pips to 1.3738, as the US dollar climbs even higher towards the Japanese yen, the currency pair has increased steadily to 149.26.
As the dollar did not record any significant gains or losses from its peers, the gold price was allowed to rise to $1,652.01 an ounce. Upon news of the US releasing 15 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, WTI oil futures fell to $82.07 a barrel.
UK policy announcements fuels rally against the greenbackEUR/USD 🔼
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The new UK chancellor has scrapped more tax cuts in the "mini-budget", and slashed its energy subsidies. Although the new administration's grip on authority remains tenuous, the British Pound and Euro significantly managed to bounce back against the US dollar. GBP/USD reached a high of 1.1431, then retreated to 1.1353, while EUR/USD rose over 100 pips and closed at 0.9838.
Stocks also improved upon a return of risk appetite. The three major indices rebounded with notable gains, the biggest earner being the Nasdaq 100, which increased 370 points (+3.46%) to 11,062. Dow Jones and S&P 500 also added 1.86% and 2.65% respectively.
AUD/USD climbed and stabilized at 0.629, and the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained that moderate rate hikes are likely needed to control inflation. USD/CAD plunged almost 170 pips to 1.3709, and USD/JPY traded higher to a 32-year high of 149.03.
A weaker dollar sees the gold price last trading at $1,650.67 after a high of $1,666.4 an ounce. WTI oil futures closed slightly lower at $84.53 a barrel, citing Energy Information Administration's higher expectations in US oil production.
Stocks rally despite high US inflationEUR/USD 🔼
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Yesterday, the US Consumer Price Index data released had a 0.4% month-on-month increase and an 8.2% year-on-year increase, both higher than market estimates. Fear sentiment soon faded after an initial plunge in stocks, and a rally followed. All three major indices closed higher, with Dow Jones hitting a week-high at 11,056.
Instead of witnessing a strong greenback upon prospects for more Federal Reserve rate hikes, USD/CAD peaked at 1.3964 yesterday and last traded at 1.375 with minor losses. USD/JPY reached 147.66, a 32-year high, to a closing price of 147.22. AUD/USD recovered from a 2-1/2-year low of 0.6170 and closed at 0.6298 with minor gains.
The British Pound hit great strides as the market expects more U-turns regarding tax cuts mentioned in the proposed “mini-budget”. GBP/USD gained over 220 pips to 1.1329. EUR/USD hit a low of 0.9642, then bounced back to 0.9773. German Consumer Price Index had increased by 10% compared to last year.
Gold price briefly slumped to $1,644 and back to $1,666.26 an ounce. Although crude-oil inventories increased by 9.88 million barrels, against market projections of 1.75 million, WTI oil futures still rose and stabilized at $89.11 a barrel.
The Fed is likely to increase interest rates furtherEUR/USD 🔼
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The latest meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve reiterate the general directions for the central bank would be more rate hikes, allowing USD/CAD to close at 1.3814 after considerable oscillations, USD/JPY also reached a 24-year high at 146.91. Later tonight, year-on-year US CPI figures are expected to run hot at 8.1% - though lower than 8.3% last month.
EUR/USD was last traded at 0.9704, recording minimal growth. The market awaits the German CPI tonight, forecasts estimate a steady 10% rise in September. Although the year-on-year UK GDP has contracted from 2.4% to 2.0%, GBP/USD still rose above the 1.110 level and closed at 1.1103.
AUD/USD traded marginally higher at 0.6276. The gold price gradually increased to $1,673.26 an ounce. Struck by recession fears, WTI oil futures fell further to $87.27 a barrel.
The Bank of England to end gilt purchase programEUR/USD 🔼
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Amidst domestic financial turbulences, the Bank of England announced an emergency program to purchase UK government bonds - which will end on Friday. The decision was made public earlier by the central bank’s governor, a sudden spike in the Claimant Count Change readings to 25,500 was also detrimental to the British Pound, which made GBP/USD plunge below the 1.100 level to 1.0963, losing over 100 pips.
EUR/USD first closed at 0.9703 with minor gains, then climbed to a high of 0.9773, currently at 0.9684. The European continent had growing tensions after the Russian retaliation targeted Ukrainian civilians, as a mobilization in Belarus becomes more likely.
Fearing a resurgence of the pandemic in China, AUD/USD closed lower at 0.627, and briefly peaked at 0.6342. A possible stall in oil consumption also sees WTI oil futures gradually declining to $89.35 a barrel. Gold was last traded at $1,666.29 an ounce amidst a volatile session.
USD/CAD fluctuated to 1.3796, though the FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released early tomorrow morning, the market doesn’t expect new insights to swat the Federal Reserve’s determined hawkish stance.
GOLD Market updateHi friends, I hope y'all had a fantastic weekend!
Today, we're looking at a possible bullish uptrend to the 2nd Daily Key Lvl and 21 MA. Reason being, the price has reached the previous mini bearish half a bat patterns 3rd level. Usually when the price has reached the level, it forms a reversal pattern to confirm it. So, we're looking at two possible bullish reversal patterns that will likely form. Currently the price wants to form a bullish half a bat. If it bearish bounces off the 3rd Daily Key Lvl or Mini Monthly Neckline with a bullish reversal candle pattern, it will dis-confirm the half a bat pattern, and we'll be looking at a head and shoulder pattern formation that will lead to the bullish uptrend we're anticipating for this week.
That's it for today. I hope y'all found value in this article. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section, I'd love to know your thoughts!
Stay Blessed,
Sphatrades.
This Week in the Markets (October 3-7)October 3 (Monday)
German Manufacturing PMI
UK Manufacturing PMI
October 4 (Tuesday)
US ISM Manufacturing PMI
RBA Interest Rate Decision
October 5 (Wednesday)
US JOLTs Job Openings
UK Composite PMI
US ADP Employment Change
October 6 (Thursday)
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Australia Trade Balance
UK Construction PMI
Eurozone Retail Sales
Canada Ivey PMI
October 7 (Friday)
US Nonfarm Payrolls
Canada Unemployment Rate
What You Need to Know This Week:
🔸 The RBA Interest Rate Decision is expected to remain at 2.35%
🔸 Estimates have the Nonfarm Payrolls to add 250,000 jobs into the market.
🔸 No major earnings report this week.
More information on Mitrade website.
Brazil to enter the next round of the presidential electionEUR/USD ▶️
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A fine margin in the results has denied an outright victory in the Brazilian presidential election, both former and current presidents will go head to head in the next round. While the people are divided by their choice of leader, potential unrest lies ahead if the final result sparks controversies.
As an oil producer and commodity exporter, this could further disrupt the global supply chain. WTI oil futures declined to $79.49 a barrel and just surged to $81.67. Despite experiencing considerable fluctuations, recession fears kept gold prices mostly steady at $1,660.98 an ounce.
After rebounding from 0.9744, the Euro then closed to 0.9799 against the US dollar, and GBP/USD went higher to 1.116. Later today, both Germany and the UK will provide their manufacturing PMI readings for September, the market expects the manufacturing sectors would not change in terms of performance.
Tomorrow morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia is going to announce its interest rate decision, current estimates anticipated a 50-basis point increase to 2.85%. Meanwhile, AUD/USD recovered from a low of 0.6397 to 0.6402, recording a loss of over 100 pips. USD/CAD closed at a high of 1.3826, and the US manufacturing PMI will be available early tomorrow.
More information on Mitrade website.
US Oil - is the bearish move still valid ? Hey all,
On a montlhy chart, prices are giving a bearish signal with a cross of EMA, on the MACD indicator .
This bearish signal open a wider window for a more important retracement. First target is located at 73$ , flat of monthly Kijun. Then, 70$ with the golden ratio of Fibonacci extension.
On short term the situation is definitely bearish, with prices below the daily cloud .
Let's see how it goes !
USOIL - MONTHLY TIME FRAMEHi there,
#USOIL
The Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart).
Note: Its my view only and its for educational purpose only. Only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves.
we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. We anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive Moves). Just ride the Bullish or Bearish Impulsive Move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle.
Buy Low and Sell High Concept. Buy at Cheaper Price and Sell at Expensive Price.
Keep it simple, keep it Unique.
please keep your comments useful & respectful.
Thanks for your support....
Tradelikemee Academy
US GDP decline sees stocks closing lowerEUR/USD 🔼
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US GDP readings for the second quarter of 2022 were at -0.6%, aligning with market estimates. On the other hand, Initial Jobless Claims have decreased from 213,000 to 193,000, slightly more optimistic than the original projection of 215,000. A contracting economy has sent US stocks further down, all three major indices fell to over a two-year low, Nasdaq 100 dropped the most to 11,164.78, losing 2.86% in the process.
Despite Canada’s GDP rising by 0.1% over a -0.15% forecast, USD/CAD still managed to close higher at 1.3677, after retreating from 1.3752. German CPI has reached double figures at 10%, and the Eurozone CPI this afternoon is also expected to have a 9.7% spike. But high inflation didn’t stop the Euro from regaining territory lost earlier this week, EUR/USD regained upward momentum after falling from 0.9640, to a closing price of 0.9814.
The British Pound continued to bounce back fiercely after the previous dive, by surging 188 pips to 1.1115. Meanwhile, the Aussie / Dollar pair experienced some oscillation and closed with a modest loss at 0.6499.
A strong dollar and recession fears led to more risk-aversion in the market, and gold prices were little changed at $1,660.61 an ounce, despite dropping to $1,642.0 prior. WTI oil futures went slightly lower to $81.23 a barrel, although oil prices could rise since OPEC is likely to cut production, and civil unrest in Iran made the nuclear deal more difficult to close.
More information on Mitrade website.
Non-US Major currencies recovered after major lossesEUR/USD 🔼
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The decline among major currencies was replaced by a rapid rally yesterday, EUR/USD closed at 0.9734 with a high of 0.9745, and AUD/USD was last traded at 0.6522. As the Bank of England announced a purchase program for long-dated bonds, the British Pound / Dollar pair had the most notable gains. The currency pair bounced back from 1.0557, peaking at 1.0900, and closed at 1.0888.
USD/CAD had lost over 110 pips while slumping to 1.3605. Later tonight, Statistics Canada will provide its GDP data, where investors expected a 0.1% decline. In addition, the US will also update its GDP and Initial Jobless Claims readings this evening.
Commodities also enjoyed a recovery run, gold price rose to $1,662.1 and closed at $1,660.01 an ounce. WTI oil futures went above $80 to $82.15 a barrel, due to a decrease in crude oil inventories by 215,000 barrels.
As the greenback retreats, US stocks and indices reclaimed lost territory. S&P 500 reached a high of 3,734.88, Dow Jones met resistance at 29,800, and Nasdaq 100 was highest at 11,540.98. Apple saw its stock prices fall to 146, currently at 149.84 - due to its decision to hold back production boosts for its latest iPhone 14.
More information on Mitrade website.
The Bank of England steps in after pound hits record lowEUR/USD 🔽
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The UK’s “mini-budget“ with numerous tax cuts proved to be disastrous to the British Pound, as the GBP/USD fell to a record low. The currency pair briefly went below 1.0500, closed at 1.0684, and currently recovered to 1.0750. The Bank of England has swiftly responded by closely monitoring the market, and will adjust interest rates to control price levels while its currency weakens.
Other major currencies too suffered from a strong greenback and recession fears, EUR/USD was last traded at 0.9606 with a low of 0.9585, and the Aussie/Dollar pair suffered fewer losses at 0.6454. USD/CAD returned from 1.3797 to 1.3732, gaining 137 pips. The Bank of Japan’s latest intervention did not stop USD/JPY from rising almost 130 pips, which closed at a high of 144.75.
After declining to $1,622.53, gold prices just bounced back from $1,621.81 an ounce. WTI oil futures spiked to $80.00 but slid to a closing price of $76.71 a barrel afterward, citing potential supply disruptions from a brewing hurricane on the US southeastern coast.
In the stock market, the slump in major US indices has slowed down, with Dow Jones losing the most at -1.11% to 29,260. A scheduled return of Chinese tour groups has cheered the entertainment sector, especially resorts and casinos, Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd (MLCO) jumped to 7.0696, gaining over 25% in the process.
More information on Mitrade website.
Today's forex news: UK borrowing plans sends the pound tumblingEUR/USD 🔽
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The British government announced its plan in response to the economic challenges, it proposed massive tax cuts and increased borrowing following the 50 bps rate hike last week. GBP/USD then plunged over 400 pips, to a three-decade low of 1.0401, finally recovering to a closing price of 1.0856.
Meanwhile, recession fears have also haunted other non-US major currencies, the Euro / Dollar pair declined further to 0.9600, before closing at 0.969 - a level not seen since 2002. Later this afternoon, the German GDP and Business Climate Index will be available, as the market expects the German GDP growth for the third quarter this year to remain at 0.1%.
AUD/USD fell to 0.6527, losing more than 110 pips in the process. The greenback climbed to 1.3589 against the loonie, currently higher at 1.3613. Risk-off sentiment also suppressed global demand for commodities, gold was traded lower at $1,643.57 an ounce, and WTI crude futures slumped to an eight-month low at $78.74 a barrel.
Fueled by a strong dollar, Both US stocks and crypto markets recorded considerable losses, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and the Dow all lost over 4%, and Bitcoin broke through the $19,000 level to $18,935.0.
More information on Mitrade website.
September Commodity Trading at a GlanceSummary of the last September WASDE Report:
***WHEAT***
– U.S. wheat outlook for supply and use is unchanged this month
– Global wheat outlook raises supplies, consumption, exports, and ending stocks this month, as production increases for Russia and Ukraine, more than offset a decline in beginning stocks. Area harvested, yield, and production for Russia will all reach record highs. The Ukraine production forecast is increased as higher yields in the Forest and Forest-Steppe zones
***CORN***
– U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, reduced exports and corn used for ethanol as on reductions to harvested area and yield
– Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, Ukraine, Canada, and Mozambique more than offsetting reductions for the EU and Serbia. China corn production is raised as abundant rainfall
***RICE***
– U.S. rice this month is for lower supplies. Lowest U.S. rice production since 1993/94
– global outlook is for lower supplies, higher consumption, reduced trade, and lower stocks.
***SOYBEANS***
– US Soybean production is projected down with lower harvested area and yield. Higher cottonseed production.
– Worldwide, Ukraine’s soybean production is raised on higher area. China soybean imports for 2022/23 are lowered. Global soybean ending stocks are down mainly on lower U.S. and China stocks. EU soybean imports are lowered with higher supplies of other oilseeds.
***SUGAR***
– U.S. sugar stocks are reduced as combined lower production and imports are only partially offset by lower use. Deliveries for human consumption are reduced.
***LIVESTOCK***
– Beef production is raised for the second half of the year with higher expected slaughter for the period. Cattle price forecasts for 2022 are raised on current strength in demand, but forecasts for 2023 are unchanged.
***COTTON***
– U.S. cotton projections include higher beginning stocks, production, exports, and ending stocks this month.
– The 2022/23 world cotton projections include higher production and ending stocks relative to last month, and lower consumption.
The Bank of England raised rates by 50 bps as expectedEUR/USD ▶️
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After the Federal Reserve's decision to increase the interest rate by 75 bps, the expected 50 bps rate hike from the Bank of England seemed tame in comparison. The UK fell on hard times as economic issues and the passing of its long-reigning monarch presented great challenges to the new Prime Minister, and the British Pound declined to 1.1257 against the greenback.
On the other side of the British Channel, the European continent did not fare much better. EUR/USD recorded little change at a closing price of 0.9836, after returning from a high of 0.9900, still staying below parity. AUD/USD was last traded at 0.6643 with minor losses.
In the US, the labor market displayed some signs of improvement, although the latest Initial Jobless Claims reading was at 213,000, it was slightly lower than the market estimates of 218,000. Riding on the waves of Fed rate hikes, USD/CAD fluctuated to 1.3487, but USD/JPY plunged to 142.35, rebounding from a low of 140.61.
Gold futures were particularly volatile yesterday, swinging between $1,695 and $1,665, finally closing at $1,681.1 an ounce. WTI oil futures briefly went to $86.65 a barrel, but eventually traded flat at $83.49.
More information on Mitrade website.
GOLD (XAU/USD): detailed breakdown. What is the next step?As it can be clearly observed from the 3H timeframe graph, after breaking out of the ascending channel illustrated on the chart, the price has managed to re-test the area of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and complete the break+retest pattern.
At the moment, the price is trading within the borders of the rectangular range portrayed on the graph. Considering the strength of the USD and the recent price development of GOLD, we are pretty positive that bearish impulses will continue from here on.
With the Stop Loss above the upper barrier of the consolidation box, we are entering short positions and aiming for the bottom of the ocean.