Oil futures return to pre-war levelsEUR/USD 🔼
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Months of almost unstoppable oil bulls have returned to the starting line, and both Brent and WTI oil futures prices have returned to levels not seen since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with WTI oil futures closing at $88.54 a barrel. Recession fears have weakened manufacturing data, and as the US summer driving season will end by September, lackluster global oil demand sends prices downward.
The loonie was dragged by the falling oil prices, USD/CAD got to 1.2864 and kept climbing, currently trading at 1.2875. New American and Canadian employment data will be available tonight, forecasts set the US unemployment to remain at 3.6%, while the benchmark nonfarm payrolls in July added 290,000 jobs - dropping from 372,000 in June.
As another central bank that has announced a 50 bps rate hike, the Bank of England also aligned with market estimates. Although the decision was the most aggressive since 1995, the central bank claims further actions are required to address the soaring inflation. The GBP/USD pair briefly went below 1.2070, but soon recovered to a closing price of 1.2157 with minor gains. AUD/USD rose above the fluctuations, gaining over 20 pips to 0.6968.
After slowing at the 1.0250 level, EUR/USD was last traded at 1.0243. Gold futures reached a monthly high at $1,806.9 an ounce.
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Surprise data strengthens the greenback and weakens oil pricesEUR/USD ▶️
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Yesterday's US economic data indicated an increase in industrial production and crude oil inventories, cheering the greenback while sending WTI oil futures to slide from $96.23 to $90.66 and stabilize. The addition of 4.467 million barrels of crude oil and OPEC slightly boosting production have relieved oil prices to a six-month low.
Oil bears have also sent the loonie on a downwards trajectory, USD/CAD closed at 1.2838 with a high of 1.2883. Later tonight, the US Initial Jobless Claims readings will update the US labor market later tonight. Meanwhile, economic data in Europe slightly missed market estimates, after rebounding from 1.0127, EUR/USD reached a closing price of 1.0169 with negligible gains.
The Bank of England is likely to announce another rate hike, market bets mostly spread between 25 and 50 bps, noticeably lower than those of the Federal Reserve. The British Pound last traded at 1.2143 against the US dollar, and the AUD/USD increased slowly to 0.6943.
Gold futures experienced some oscillations, and rose to $1,776.4 an ounce.
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Oil back at key support who will win this battle?Hi all, thanks for checking in for Wednesday's video analysis on oil.
Once again, we find ourselves back at key support. This level has stood since March, and till today sellers haven't been able to break through this level. For the last two sessions, sellers have tried and failed at breaking $95.20 support, but the question now is, do buyers still have the numbers to defend a new assault?
Monday saw a strong move down by sellers, but they continue to be blocked at support. Things above are not much clearer as resistance continues to look firm from $101-$102.
Our question today is will we see a new break lower or will support hold, and with price now starting to be squeezed, could this become a defining point that continues the current downtrend or sprouts a new reversal?
One thing I didn't cover in today's video is the danger of breakout selling at this point. The current point looks as good as any for a bear trap after a false breakout out lower, as we have already seen one in July.
Regardless of the breakout direction, we see it might be a good idea to wait for a new LH or HL to gauge that the move is valid and won't get sucked back into the range.
Thanks for watching and reading. We hope you enjoy the rest of your day.
Good trading
Risk aversion sentiment intensified from US-China tensionsEUR/USD 🔽
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Investors flocked to safe-haven assets due to building tensions between the US and China, the greenback and gold had their prices recovered, when US stocks and indices took a hit. Gold futures closed at $1,789.7 an ounce, then slid from $1,804.8 to $1772.5.
A stronger dollar rebounded against other major currencies, and EUR/USD declined to 1.0164, currently trading flat. USD/JPY rose sharply to 133.16, almost gaining 150 pips. The loonie had a choppy trading session, USD/CAD eventually gained 31 pips to 1.2875.
Meanwhile, several Federal Reserve officials have implied further rate hikes to control soaring inflation. The comments have overshadowed an imminent interest rate increase from the Bank of England on Thursday, GBP/USD was weakened to 1.2172.
Despite raising rates on Tuesday, Governor Lowe of the Reserve Bank of Australia claimed “normalizing monetary conditions… is not on a pre-set path”, the relatively dovish comment led the AUD/USD pair to fall below the 0.700 level to 0.6919, losing over 100 pips in the process.
Market estimates have the US Crude Oil Inventories decreasing by 629,000 barrels, and WTI oil futures reached a high of $96.26 a barrel before closing at $94.42 with little change.
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Aussie rises in advance of RBA rate hikeEUR/USD 🔼
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The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to bring another 50 bps rate hike later today, and AUD/USD rose to 0.7023 with minor oscillation while its economy is dealing with the aftermath of the Sydney flood and Chinese lockdowns. As the Bank of England is preparing to increase interest rates on Thursday, GBP/USD climbed to 1.2254 and stabilized at the 1.2250 level, gaining over 80 pips.
The latest reading for US ISM Manufacturing PMI is 52.8, slightly higher than market estimates, but projections for US JOLTs Job Openings in June anticipated a minor drop to 11 million new job openings. Nonetheless, USD/CAD closed at 1.2845 and reached a high of 1.2855.
Compared to previous figures, Germany's retail sales in June decreased by 1.6%, against market bets for a 0.2% minimal growth, the EUR/USD pair was last traded at 1.0261 with a high of 1.029.
Crude oil demands were cut by recession sentiment, falling to $93.89 a barrel, losing almost $5 in the process. Gold futures closed higher at 1,787.7, then went to 1,796.6 an ounce.
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Oil price swayed by OPEC meeting and weak Chinese PMIEUR/USD 🔼
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Last week saw WTI crude oil futures climbing to $101.58 a barrel, but a disappointing Chinese PMI reading and a possible OPEC production boost brought prices down to $98.62, now dwelling at $97 territory.
US dollar and treasury yields both dropped as recession sentiment was intensified by another negative US GDP growth, USD/CAD slipped to 1.2793. Gold futures rode upon a weakened greenback to $1,781.8 an ounce, settling on the $1,780 level.
Greenback’s loss became stock’s gain, major indices have all gone up. Amazon surged 10.40% thanks to a stellar sales report, but Roku lost 23.07% of its stock value due to lackluster earnings that fell short of market estimates.
Meanwhile, major currencies rallied against the US dollar, and the GBP/USD pair further recovered to 1.2189. Aussie met resistance at 0.700, AUD/USD slightly moved up to 0.6985, and both central banks in Australia and Eurozone will announce their interest rate decision this week. Cheered by optimistic Eurozone and Germany GDP results, EUR/USD closed at 1.0226 with a 29-pip gain.
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Fed hints at slowing down after a 75 bps rate hikeEUR/USD 🔼
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Earlier today, the Federal Reserve continued its path of aggressive rate hikes by increasing it by 75 basis points to 2.50%. Meanwhile, Chairman Powell claimed it would be appropriate to slow down the tightening eventually, providing some breathing space for other major currencies, USD/CAD dropped from 1.2895 to 1.2821.
Regarding concerns over a recession, the US GDP data for the second quarter will be available tonight, and the market estimated a 0.5% growth - which could avoid meeting the technical definition of a recession.
As the dollar retreated, the British Pound became the bigger winner, GBP/USD rose and stabilized at the 1.2170 level, gaining over 130 pips to close at 1.2151, and the EUR/USD also maintained a foothold at the 1.0200 level before closing at 1.0202. Australia’s Retail Sales reading in June missed market projections at 0.2%, but AUD/USD nonetheless reached 0.6993, edging towards 0.700.
Gold futures took advantage of a weakened greenback and sluggish bond yields and climbed to $1,719.1, currently trading at $1,743.0 an ounce. US crude oil inventories further went down by 4.523 million barrels, and since Russia reduced gas supplies to Europe, WTI oil futures increased $3 to $98.17 a barrel.
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Natura Gas Triple Top Selling pressure is evident after making Triple top
Shooting Star with a long tail
Decent Risk to Reward
Keep trailing
Let me know your views in the comment.
Focus on the Fed's decision and the EU's energy problemsEUR/USD 🔼
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In Tuesday's financial markets, risk aversion dominated, favoring the dollar most. Several factors affected the mood of the market.
Gazprom, the Russian gas giant, is supplying Germany with approximately 20% of its usual supply of natural gas. For the upcoming winter, the EU countries have agreed to reduce gas consumption by 15% by the end of the six-month period. Despite the fact that Moscow reported that the missing turbine for the pipeline was on its way after maintenance, it has yet to be installed.
Also of interest to speculators were the yields on US bonds. Since 2000, the yield curve has never been more inverted. The yield on 2-year Treasuries is 3.03 percent, while the yield on 10-year notes is 2.76 percent. An inverted curve typically predicts a recession.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced its global growth forecast for this year from 3.6 percent to 2.9 percent. The organization also issued a warning that the Ukraine conflict and high inflation could tip the world economy into a deep recession. The World Economic Outlook also said that a complete gas cutoff from Russia to Europe and a decline in the nation's oil exports would further impede development in 2023.
With EUR/USD edging closer to 1.0100, the EUR was once more among the USD's weakest rivals. The GBP/USD exchange rate remained above 1.2000, while the AUD/USD closed at 0.6935. The USD/CAD pair increased as oil prices declined, trading close to 1.2890.
There was no movement in safe-haven currencies, with the USD/CHF staying stable at 0.9620 and the USD/JPY currently trading at 136.75.
Spot gold remained at a familiar level, though it was close to the bottom of its most recent range. The price of an ounce of the shiny metal is $1,717.
The United States' decision to sell an additional 20 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve contributed to the slight decline in crude oil prices, which was also a result of the depressing mood. WTI's final trading price for the day was $94.90 a barrel.
The US Federal Reserve is presently the center of attention. Although there is a probability of a 100 bps change, it is widely expected that the central bank would increase the funds rate by 75 basis points. Since the most recent Fed meeting, the latter has become less and less plausible as economic growth keeps declining. To control inflation, policymakers might not want to risk a recession.
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Major currencies retreat ahead of another Fed rate hikeEUR/USD 🔽
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After a week of rallying, greenback peers have weakened towards the US currency, mostly due to disappointing domestic economic data, recession fears, and the imminent 75 bps rate hike from the Federal Reserve, while some even predicted a full percentage increase. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone, Germany, and France all missed market estimates, signaling a slowing economy,
EUR/USD thus went on a continuous decline to 1.021.
Despite trading with considerable fluctuations, GBP/USD closed at 1.1996 with negligible gains. Although the British Pound did breach the 1.2000 level against the US dollar, the currency pair soon lost support and went below it again. Meanwhile, AUD/USD fell to 0.6925, and USD/CAD was at 1.2914 last Friday, now edging towards 1.3000 level, with a high of 1.2944.
Gold price climbed to $1,727 an ounce, WTI crude futures experienced an oscillation between $94 to $96, to a closing price of $94.7 a barrel. Other than the Fed interest rate decision, multiple GDP readings will be available from Canada, the Eurozone, Germany, and the US this week.
In US stocks, Social media firm Snap (SNAP) was one of the worst performers, dipping over 39% as its recent results were less than satisfying.
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ECB mildly surprises market with a 50 bps rate hikeEUR/USD 🔼
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The European Central Bank finally increased its interest rate by 50 basis points, in order to drive inflation back to 2%. Though Europe has lagged behind other major central banks in terms of tightening monetary policy, the decision still exceeded the 25 bps forecast. Euro gained momentum against the greenback, EUR/USD briefly surged to 1.0275 before closing at 1.0228.
While the UK top job has narrowed down to the final two candidates, GBP/USD fluctuated around the 1.2000 level and closed at 1.1993 with minor gains. Later tonight, domestic retail sales and price manager index related data will be available. AUD/USD had slumped to a low of 0.6861, but climbed to 0.6929, gaining over 30 pips.
USD/CAD retreated from 1.2936 to 1.2867. The latest US economic figures were not encouraging, Initial Jobless Claims reached a six-month high of 251,000, as the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to -12.3. Signs of a slowing economy may convince the Federal Reserve to stay away from a 100 bps rate hike next week.
After sliding to $1,679, gold futures rebounded $1,713.4 an ounce. U.S. WTI crude futures fell to $96.35 a barrel, thanks to Libya resuming oil production, and recession fears still looming over the US and Europe.
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Market expects ECB rate hike will be outshined by the FedEUR/USD 🔽
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Later tonight, the European Central Bank will announce its first rate hike in six years. While most expected a 25 bps rate hike, some still believed the ECB would double the amount to combat inflation. Still, it pales compared to the 75 bps rate hike forecast from the Federal Reserve, and the greenback recovered against its peers; EUR/USD closed at 1.0177, with a low of 1.0157.
According to the UK Office for National Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings in June recorded a 9.4% - a four-decade high, almost reaching double-digit inflation earlier warned by Governor Bailey of the Bank of England. The British Pound was weakened, with GBP/USD declining to 1.1969.
Canada’s inflation slowed last month, and core CPI increased by 0.3%. USD/CAD rose to 1.2884, with a high of 1.2904. Meanwhile, AUD/USD closed at 0.6885, losing 13 pips.
By the end of yesterday’s trading session, gold futures lost support and went below $1,700 to close at $1,695, currently sliding to 1,689.75 an ounce.
US Crude Oil Inventories decreased by 446,000 barrels over an anticipated addition of 1.36 million barrels, but recession fears proved to be a more significant market force. WTI oil futures fluctuated between $98 and $100 a barrel, finally settling on $99.88.
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Strong earning reports cheer US stock pricesEUR/USD 🔼
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So far, most earning reports this week have exceeded market forecasts, e.g. Johnson & Johnson and IBM, allowing major US indices to rally, Nasdaq led with a 3.13% surge to 12,249. Despite a stream of leaving subscribers, Netflix managed to grow 5.5% past the $200 level, currently at 201.63.
Meanwhile, major currencies extended their recovery runs as well. The Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a 8.6% rise in price levels that met estimates, and bets on a 50 bps rate hike from the European Central Bank further boosted the Euro, EUR/USD rose 82 pips to close at 1.0224.
The GBP/USD pair briefly went above 1.2000 and closed at 1.1995, reflecting a couple of fairly optimistic employment data. Last month's unemployment rate in the UK was at 3.8% as expected, though investors projected the CPI reading in June to go up by 9.3%, adding more inflationary pressure.
AUD/USD has a closing price of 0.6895, after gaining over 80 pips and trading flat at 0.6900. USD/CAD fell over 100 pips to 1.2869.
Gold futures experienced minor oscillation, but remained little changed at $1,710.7 an ounce. Oil bulls slowed down as they met resistance at $100 level, finally closing at $100.74 a barrel.
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Greenback softens from cooled 100 bps Fed rate hike betsEUR/USD 🔼
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Previous comments from Federal Reserve officials have shifted market bets from a 100 bps rate hike to 75, pushing the US dollar to retreat against its peers, with the British Pound gaining 99 pips to 1.1954 towards the greenback as the leading currency pair. Later today, the UK Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings will be announced, and investors expect the latest readings to have little to no change from last month.
Forecasts for the Eurozone Consumer Price Index also stayed the same at 8.6%, still high enough to prompt a possible 25 bps interest rate increase from the European Central Bank on Thursday. Meanwhile, EUR/USD rose to 1.0141 with a week-high of 1.0193, as Bitcoin rallied over 7% to $22,300.
Fresh meeting minutes for July revealed the Reserve Bank of Australia's perspective for the 50 bps rate hike, the document addressed increased savings, a tight labor market, and overall resilience as key components for its economy to combat inflation. AUD/USD closed with minor gains at 0.6811, USD/CAD slumped to 1.2902 and rebounded to 1.2978.
Gold futures retreated from a high of $1,721.0 to $1,710.2, now trading at $1,704.8 an ounce. Though the annual maintenance is still underway, Gazprom has warned Europe that the Nord Stream 1 gas supply may not resume on time. As a result, oil prices climbed and met resistance at $99 level, finally closing at $99.42 a barrel.
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Major currencies recover from multi-year lowEUR/USD 🔼
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This week, investors expect a 25 basis point rate hike from the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday, which remains the most dovish despite being most affected by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Uncertainties also surrounded the scheduled resumption of Nord Stream 1's gas supply from Russia, still EUR/USD managed to lose some pressure and climbed back to 1.0087, currently at 1.0114.
Other peers also reclaimed losses from the greenback last week, GBP/USD increased to 1.1852 and AUD/USD with a closing price of 0.6792. On Tuesday, the latest meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia outline the following monetary policies. The USD/CAD pair had lost over 90 pips to 1.303, with US Building Permits readings available tomorrow night.
Recession fears did not give gold futures a significant edge, the yellow metal slipped $5 to $1,703.6 an ounce. However, WTI crude oil futures declined to $94.57 a barrel, with a low of 91.84. President Biden's effort to convince Saudi Arabia to increase oil production substantially proved fruitless, though he claimed further steps are in motion to boost supply.
In the stock market, Citigroup's Q2 earnings exceed forecasts to gain 13.23%, leading the rally in the banking sector. Meanwhile, bitcoin just bounced back from 20,757 to 21,316.9.
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Fears of a 100 bps US rate hike cool downEUR/USD ▶️
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Assuring Federal Reserve officials' comments have calmed investors' concerns for a historical 100 basis points (bps) interest rate increase, as the 9.1% headline inflation could persuade the Fed for more aggressive measures.
The latest initial jobless claims rose to 244,000 over a 238,000 forecast. The Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment readings tonight are expected to indicate a slightly contracted economy as inflation rages on.
Meanwhile, the greenback retained its strength against other major currencies. USD/CAD reached 1.3223 before closing at 1.3117. USD/JPY even surged 154 pips to 138.93, a 24-year high.
The EUR/USD pair broke parity levels to a two-decade low, after recovering from 0.9950, it closed at 1.0016 with little change. The British Pound lost 66 pips to 1.1822. AUD/USD slid to 0.6745, giving up 15 pips.
Gold prices also took a hit from the dominant US dollar, gold futures briefly broke $1,700 support, managing to return to 1,705.8 with a $30 deficit. Recession fear still haunts the oil market, crude oil futures traded flat at 95.78 as they recouped from a low of 91.03.
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Uptrend holds despite dollar fallEUR/USD 🔽
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Following the release of the US Consumer Price Index, which showed that prices rose by a significantly worse 9.1% YoY in June than anticipated (8.8%), the US dollar ended the day slightly weaker. The core figure came in at 5.9 percent, down the previous 6 percent but higher than the projected 5.8 percent, indicating that pricing pressures are still very much present.
The data first sparked risk aversion, causing stocks to plummet and government bond costs to skyrocket amid speculation that the US Federal Reserve may consider more significant rate hikes, raising the possibility of a recession.
Germany also released its CPI data, which showed that it was indeed 7.6 percent YoY as previously predicted.
Due to central bank imbalances, the EUR/USD pair is presently trading at about 1.0055 after reaching a peak of 1.0121. The US Federal Reserve has increased rates several times, and this month they will probably increase them by another 75 basis points. On the other hand, the European Central Bank will increase rates by 25 basis points to begin its gradual tightening in July.
Positive UK data helped the pound during European trading hours as the monthly GDP increased to 0.5 percent in May, a significant improvement from the previous -0.3 percent. Additionally, Manufacturing Production expanded by 2.3 percent YoY in the same month, above expectations, while Industrial Production increased by 1.4 percent YoY. The pair lost ground during the day, finishing at roughly 1.1890.
In July, the Bank of Canada increased its policy rate by 100 basis points to 2.5 percent, versus the market’s forecast for a rate increase of 75 basis points. The BOC recognized in its policy statement that, since the spring of last year, it has largely underestimated inflation due to external factors. Due to the dismal state of US equities, USD/CAD dropped to 1.2933 and is currently trading around 1.2980.
Prior to the announcement of Australian employment data, the AUD/USD pair maintained slight gains near 0.6760. The nation will release June employment data during the upcoming Asian session. After adding 60.6K new jobs in May, it is anticipated that the nation will have added just modestly 25K new jobs in June. The nation’s unemployment rate is also anticipated to decrease to 3.8 percent from 3.9 percent. Australia will also release July Consumer Inflation Expectations before the statistics, with analysts anticipating a decrease from the previous estimate of 6.7 percent to 5.9 percent.
While there was minimal movement in crude oil prices, WTI is currently trading at $95.80 per barrel. The gold price settled at $1,733 per troy ounce.
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Oil prices declined to a three-month low, EUR/USD reached parityEUR/USD 🔽
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WTI Oil futures have returned below $100 to a three-month low of $95.84 a barrel, thanks to recession fears and hopes for a production boost among major OPEC members. Tonight's US consumer price index is predicted to reach a 41-year high of 8.8% for June, paving the way for another 75 basis point hike to combat inflation. On Thursday, the US Crude Oil Inventories are expected to decrease by 154,000 barrels, possibly cheering oil prices.
A contracting economy has strengthened the greenback, with the Euro briefly reaching parity towards the US dollar to close at 1.0003, then recovered to 1.0036. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment has recorded a reading of -53.8 against a forecast of -38.3, the negative sentiment is shared among predictions of various CPI data, which will be available this afternoon.
GBP/USD bounced back from 1.1818 to a closing price of 1.1885 with negligible losses, while a series of GDP data will be provided by the UK Office for National Statistics tonight. Despite investors anticipating a slowed growth in yearly and quarterly terms, the forecast for a 0.1% month-on-month bump still showed certain optimism.
The AUD/USD pair rose 25 pips to 0.6776, and the USD/CAD climbed 14 pips to 1.3021. Later today, The Bank of Canada will likely follow the Federal Reserve with a 75 basis points rate hike to 2.25%. Meanwhile, gold futures fluctuated on a downward trajectory to 1,724.8 an ounce.
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EUR/USD edges towards parityEUR/USD 🔽
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The Euro has been steadily declining to a two-decade low against the US dollar at 1.0039, barely floating above parity. On the one hand, last week, the US nonfarm payroll readings led investors to anticipate further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, Russia's Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline began its annual maintenance, which will cease its gas supply to Germany for ten days - a significant impact on the European economy.
The British Pound and Aussie slipped to two-year lows, and GBP/USD just slid below 1.185, after stabilizing at 1.1900 and closing at 1.1889. Governor Bailey of the Bank of England will give a speech tomorrow, the first time after Boris Johnson announced his scheduled resignation as Prime Minister. New pandemic restrictions in China have brought the Australian dollar down to 0.673, mostly trading flat afterwards.
Greenback gained from its competitors' losses, USD/CAD rose by 57 pips to 1.3005, with a high of 1.3034, as USD/CHF closed with noticeable gains at 0.9829, and USD/JPY also gained 132 pips to 137.42. A stronger dollar held back gold futures, slipping $10 to $1,731.7 an ounce and just plunged to $1,725.5. US oil futures briefly fluctuated to $101.10, soon returning to $103.43 a barrel.
As Elon Musk backs out of the 44 billion Twitter deal, Twitter (TWTR) has doubled its losses, plunging over 11%, but the platform is ready to use legal means to make the Tesla CEO see it through.
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Positive US-Nonfarm Payrolls may bring more rate hikesEUR/USD 🔼
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Amidst political shockwaves from Japan and the U.K., the Nonfarm Payrolls readings for June have increased by 372,000, significantly outperforming the market forecast of 268,000. Since this result does not align with market fears for a recession, the Federal Reserve will likely implement further mega rate hikes to combat inflation.
Meanwhile, Elon Musk opted to terminate the Twitter deal, as he claimed the lack of information provided by Twitter itself hindered his goal of removing all spam and fake accounts on the platform. As a result, the stock price (TWTR) decreased by 5.10%, losing over two U.S. dollars over the weekend.
EUR/USD closed at 1.0183, after recovering from a low of 1.0100, and the German ZEW Economic Sentiment index will be available tomorrow. As the British Parliament awaited the next political leader, GBP/USD recovered from 1.1933, then closed at 1.2027 with minor gains. AUD/USD had a choppy trading session to 0.6856, and just declined to 0.6828.
Gold futures markets were mostly quiet, and little change was recorded at $1,741 an ounce. Although U.S. oil futures settled at 104.79, they were climbing slowly. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield bonds advanced a further 8.8bps to 3.082%.
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