US Dollar Still DowntrendingSince the begging of 2021, we have seen around a 2% rally for the $USD; however, there is clearly a downtrend that has to be broken before the bulls get in.
The next level after breaking the upper channel line would be the 100sma, which has proven to be useful as a trend-following system.
Commoditytrading
Are you ready for some Natural Gas ?I believe Nat Gas is approaching a crucial demand zone! WHAT NEXT?
My current view remained neutral and speculative with Natural Gas being in a range of 2.9xx - 3.400. However, Natural Gas could develop a bullish move if the weather condition in the US continued to strengthen.
For Intraday traders, you could look for Buy setups as it approaches 2.9xx with R:R ratio at 3.04. To be more clear, your target will be at 3.400 and stoploss at 2.740. If you want to be risky your stop loss could be at 2.550.
For Swing traders and Position traders, I will not take this trade.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
~ Tuan Anh Commo
COCOA is tapping on the resistance of recent trading rangeNIB (cocoa ETN) is pushing against the top of the trading range. Cocoa has been consolidating for around two month now. Since I am long term bullish on agricultural commodities such as cocoa, if/when the top of the range is taken out, I expect quick run up as most of these commodities tend to have unidirectional run. First target is $32.80 range and next is the yellow down trend line. When and if that trend line is taken, I expect bigger upward move.
Have a good trade everyone,
T.
Maybe it is not too late to get some BREAD !!CBOT Wheat is range bouncing! WHAT NEXT?
My current view remained neutral with wheat being in a range of 632 - 670. However, wheat could develop a bullish move on Monday and early Tuesday due to USDA Supply and Demand report later Tuesday.
Wheat is overall bullish trading in this range, so we should be looking for Trend-Following Buy setups as it approaches our lower orange demand zone at 625 - 632.
So the highlighted green zone is still a very strong area even though it is tested a coupled of times. I strongly believed that this is where smart money a.k.a institutional traders stops hunt and they are looking forward to make the market move higher.
As per my trading style:
I already have a couple of positions open at 626 and 630 with stop losses somewhat at 615.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
~ Tuan Anh Commo
Technical Analysis and OutlookTechnical Analysis and Outlook
The continuous Silver action keeps the price above Mean Sup $26.250 . Silver's upside at this super bull rally is high; however, the downside low probability pullback should be to the Key Sup $24.750 - If it happens at all. To continue the rest of the market story, see the 'Weekly Market Review & Analysis For February 1, 2021" at the usual site.
Commodities poised for breakout?Dollar index is double-top and reaching breakout to the downside with MSCI Asia ETF on the upside. Most of the commodities are bottom and moving up. With stimulus package coming in, S&P500 will go higher and correlate with MSCI as well. Will go long into commodities, namely, gold, silver, copper, and wti and trade on the pivot points.
JO ETN bouncing breaking out of wedge right on supportJO is breaking out of small bullish falling wedge. It was objective to enter the trade as it was falling onto pretty good support at $35.25ish. Looking for follow though green candle tomorrow. $38.80 would be next stop and hopefully to take out top of trading range at $40.70. As you see, JO trades to the technicals pretty well. So, I hope it will be a good trade.
Oil Ascending Channel - Long OrderOil Ascending Channel Long Position
Entry: $51.69
TP & RR: $52.87 (1.59)
Stop Loss: $50.95
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
After breaking up at the ascending triangle, Oil has now formed an ascending triangle, testing the lower trendline. If it holds I believe that it will make a higher high and potentially trying to test the upper trendline or at the very least do a double top.
My Stop Loss is very conservative here because there may be a fakeout and I don't want to get stopped out (my USDJPY trade is still haunting me I guess). As I am writing this I can see that the price is already going up, so I hope a small pullback will give me the entry I want, after which I will start trailing my SL.
SUGAR is testing an important monthly structure 🦐SUGAR is testing an important monthly structure, a static resistance, and dynamic resistance (trendline purple).
The price created even an ascending channel on a weekly timeframe.
IF the price will break the monthly and weekly resistance, and turns into support, we can see a nice bullish impulse, According to Plancton's strategy, we can set a nice order
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis, please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
GOLD SELL ENTRYTrade Executed on H1 supply level, swing trade and SL is above previous wick and TP towards bottom zone.
Lets see what happens.
Please feel free to leave comments.
Thanks
Gold Bullish Sentiment Personality, I feel that we have met the GOLD bottom for the year. Possibly forever.
Well, my $1830 target 🎯 missed by $12, but that's OK.
So, why do I think the bottom is in the past?
Dollar Devaluation
The US Fed has devalued the dollar through a number of tools. This has and will have an effect on the equity & commodity markets. See, when the dollar is weak, the equity markets will rally - this has an implication that there will be no stock market crash any time soon.
How the FED actions affect the market - ->
In addition to this, as long as the equity markets rally and DXY remains weak Gold, silver, lumber, and agricultural futures will rally.
Dollar Devaluation impact - - >
Gold & Silver as a store for value.
It's no secret that the DXY currently isn't the best for storing value as a reserve currency. Near-term bonds & yields are also at record low levels hence making it unattractive for hedge funds to stick to the traditional 60:40 portfolio allocation models as central banks are already flirting with the possibility of negative interest rates. So, what can they use as a store for value?
[* Mining
If you follow gold mining, you already know that there has been no gold discovery recently. This translated to basic demand-supply economics means that the price might shoot up. See, gold demand is going to rise in 2021. Last month's delivery of gold from futures was high and this is going to rapidly rise as we approach the December deadline for the GC1! continuous futures. You could also trade the VANECK gold miners ETF for a nice highly correlated compounding trade.
CFTC COT WEEKLY DATA
Hedge funds remaining bullish with record high net positions seen from last week's report with 323k long positions open.
On the other hand, we are in volatile times, therefore, be careful. We are not yet out of the woods. Price is currently testing a breakout from a descending wedge. If it successfully stays above the $1912 support level, it's safe to assume that $1960 and $2000 are the next targets.
If you agree with the idea, like or leave a comment below 👍🏿 👍🏿