Analyzing Sector Dynamics and Momentum ShiftsIntroduction:
The performance ratio between the communications sector (XLC) and the technology sector (XLK) highlights two of the market's leading sectors, both of which feature overlapping companies. While XLC has been a strong performer for much of the year, it has recently shown signs of weakness, even lagging behind traditionally defensive sectors like utilities. Historically, technology has maintained more consistent strength compared to communications.
Analysis:
Sector Comparison: The XLC-to-XLK ratio helps gauge the relative momentum between these two sectors. Recent weakness in XLC, paired with XLK’s historical stability, suggests a shift in relative strength back toward technology.
Rectangle Pattern: Currently, the XLC-to-XLK ratio displays a rectangle formation, which hints at a potential continuation of the downtrend should the ratio break below the rectangle’s lower trendline. This pattern could indicate that XLC’s outperformance may have peaked for now.
Momentum Shift: Although XLC has shown some recent underperformance, any shift in momentum away from communications is likely to be gradual rather than abrupt, given the current technical setup.
Conclusion:
The relative performance of XLC and XLK is crucial for understanding current sector dynamics and where momentum may be shifting. While technology remains robust, the recent pattern in the XLC-to-XLK ratio suggests a possible weakening in communications. Traders should watch for a break below the rectangle pattern to confirm a continuation of the downtrend. What’s your view on the XLC-to-XLK relationship? Share your thoughts below!
Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the XLC-to-XLK ratio, the rectangle formation, and the potential breakout areas)
Tags: #Communications #Technology #SectorAnalysis #XLC #XLK #TechnicalPatterns
Communications
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LUMN: Bullish Gartley Visible on the 3-Month ChartShares of Lumen Technologies are currently sitting at the HOP Level of a Massive Bullish Gartley that is visible on higher timeframes such as the Monthly and Quarterly Charts. It is also showing Bullish Divergence on the MACD and RSI and looks to be ready to make a move towards $6.00 in the short term, but the situation could evolve into a bigger long term move towards $25.00 and $50.00
Will communications $XLC lead the next leg up? In the last 6 months AMEX:XLC is the leading sector in the $SPX.
And with the recent sell of in the energy sector AMEX:XLE , communications is the only sector without lower lows.
There are various stocks that confirm this strength in AMEX:XLC , some are NASDAQ:MATH , NASDAQ:ATVI , NASDAQ:META , NASDAQ:CHTR and many others.
Let's wait and see.
$T -4%, are you serious?This is another case of hidden value by a downgrade.
Nothing we do today could be possible without this company; communication is the foundation of everything nowadays.
But technically we have a broadening falling wedge, the resistance is just 32% from this price.
Maybe the key day will be the earnings call, but the opportunity is there!
GL!
CHTR Potential Trade AlertThis is a top short target. Keep this name on your watchlist as its been lagging the communications sector.
If the communication sector sees weakness which we think it will, this name will be a relative weakness trade to the downside.
Earnings approaching is the major outlier event.
Trade Idea: TMUS (T-mobile) TMUS is looking very topping heavy on the larger term time frame.
This would align with our thesis that we believe communication and aspects of the tech market are going to see some capital rotation.
If this weekly topping formation is triggered in this chart we will have a high probability trade setup.
Knowing the trend to trade is key.
T | Technical Bounce In Order | AT&TAT&T Inc. provides telecommunications, media, and technology services worldwide. Its Communications segment offers wireless voice and data communications services; and sells handsets, wireless data cards, wireless computing devices, and carrying cases and hands-free devices through its own company-owned stores, agents, and third-party retail stores. It also provides data, voice, security, cloud solutions, outsourcing, and managed and professional services, as well as customer premises equipment for multinational corporations, small and mid-sized businesses, governmental, and wholesale customers. In addition, this segment offers broadband fiber and legacy telephony voice communication services to residential customers. It markets its communications services and products under the AT&T, Cricket, AT&T PREPAID, and AT&T Fiber brand names. The company's Latin America segment provides wireless services in Mexico; and video services in Latin America. This segment markets its services and products under the AT&T and Unefon brand names. The company was formerly known as SBC Communications Inc. and changed its name to AT&T Inc. in 2005. AT&T Inc. was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) bullish scenario:The technical figure Falling Wedge can be found in the daily chart in the US company Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO). Cisco Systems, Inc., commonly known as Cisco, is an American-based multinational digital communications technology conglomerate corporation. Cisco develops, manufactures, and sells networking hardware, software, telecommunications equipment and other high-technology services and products. Cisco specializes in specific tech markets, such as the Internet of Things (IoT), domain security, videoconferencing, and energy management with leading products including Webex, OpenDNS, Jabber, Duo Security, and Jasper. Cisco is one of the largest technology companies in the world ranking 74 on the Fortune 100 with over $51 billion in revenue and nearly 80,000 employees. The Falling Wedge broke through the resistance line on 29/10/2022. If the price holds above this level, you can have a possible bullish price movement with a forecast for the next 69 days towards 50.28 USD. Your stop-loss order, according to experts, should be placed at 38.61 USD if you decide to enter this position.
For the July quarter, adjusted earnings came in at 83 cents per share, down 1% from a year earlier. Revenue was flat at $13.1 billion, including acquisitions.
Analysts estimated that Cisco would earn 82 cents per share on revenue of $12.73 billion.
For the October quarter, Cisco forecast profit in a range of 82 cents to 84 cents vs. estimates of 84 cents. Cisco projected revenue growth of 2% to 4%, compared with projections for flat sales growth.
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Apple - Will next earnings reinforce the selling pressure?After the 242% run-up from its lows during the 2020 crash to its high in January 2022, Apple gave up almost 20% in regard to the current value. In addition to that, the introduction of the new iPhone 14 has not created much hype among consumers and market participants. Since the release of the new product, the price has continued to be choppy and seemingly returning to its 2022 lows.
Because of that, we will continue to monitor the Apple stock in the coming weeks and provide a more detailed update on the price and its potential future direction. However, at the moment, we abstain from setting a price target for this stock title.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of Apple stock and two moving averages, 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. In addition to that, two yellow arrows point to natural retracements toward the price's moving averages, acting as a correction of the downward move. If the price fails to break above the 20-day SMA and then subsequently above the 50-day SMA, then it will add to a bearish consensus.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows the weekly chart of Apple stock and two simple moving averages; now, 20-week SMA and 50-week SMA. The yellow arrow pinpoints the similar retracement toward (and even above) these SMAs; in this particular example, the retracement represents a strong correction of the downtrend.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Rogers Communication RCI.B - Weakness AheadI have been following Rogers Communication for a while watching price unfold as the company has been in the news over the last few months.
Firstly, Rogers would like to purchase Shaw communications which will constrict wireless competition landscape even further within Canada and secondly, they had a serious country wide outage a few weeks back which affected millions of their consumers as well as businesses such as Interac and emergency services. The outage revealed how vulnerable their infrastructure is to being affected as they appear to have less than reliable redundancy systems in place. Management noted they will be investing heavily into their infrastructure so this downtime issue will not happen again. Millions will be spend on their networks which will likely affect stock price.
Looking at the long term monthly timeframe, I see continued weakness in RCI.B after it breached an old Feb-2019 all time high of $73.82 but was strongly rejected with price currently sitting in the middle of the dealing range between $73.82 and $46.81.
Under current price, we have a few levels that I believe price will reach for.
1st target = 56.00
2nd target = 54.70
3rd target = 50.70
4th target = 46.80
Ultimate target for the stock in my opinion is $40.0. Feel free to comment on my idea. Feedback is always appreciated.
7/10/22 TAT&T Inc. ( NYSE:T )
Sector: Communications (Major Telecommunications)
Market Capitalization: $148.907B
Current Price: $20.80
Breakout price: $21.40
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $20.50-$18.45
Price Target: $21.60-$21.80 (1st), $23.10-$23.50 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 132-137d (1st), 286-299d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $T 10/21/22 20c, $T 1/20/23 23c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.61/contract, $0.51/contract
IRDM Iridium Communications Price TargetARK Invest is selling IRDM Iridium Communications for some time now. They timed the PayPal and Facebook selloff perfectly, so i expect they did the proper research before selling IRDM too.
In this case, my price target is the 28usd support level.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
$NXST: COVID / Tech Hangover?This one may be a bit risky but valuations are below the historical average and there's is some possibility that the divisions we've been seeing over COVID vaccines leads to a more local-focused population. People getting back to what's real and the issues that actually affect them in order to recalibrate to a sense of normalcy. If there is a tech hangover, I believe you'll find it priced in here first. XLC has been slippery though so we'll see how this plays out.
Communications is KeyIn my honest opinion here. When looking at S&P through RRG, Communications sector XLC looks really good long term. Short term watch out as we could go as low as 70's or more before the bounce. But this should offer a nice low point of buy in, providing the FED does not mess it up. Pay attention to Communications news over this time span. maybe a week or two max.
AT&T Communications/Metaverse Play?AT&T did a double bottom with equal buying and selling here on the Daily. The double bottom happened only over a few days, however there's Four Green Candles "Marching Up" a fifth one would have been nice, but four is pretty strong. What do you think is AT&T going to gain 5G Market Share? I recently saw a comparison to T-Mobile, but can't help think which other brands will gain in this sector. The Metaverse is going to need 5G as more games roll out onto phones, which platform do you all think be the biggest? Also AT&T just bought it's own Advertising Brand, so again it's going to be collecting tons & tons of data. After taking a beating politically & economically this might be a buy, no bags but looking. Not advice, please DYOR & view AT&T & it's subsidiaries prospectus.