BTC ROADMAP, LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL! (BTC VS DOTCOM)I know Bulls, Im sick out it too. I'm sick of all fud, and the haters that made no money last year walk around like experts because Bitcoin finally crashed and, they "told you so". I didnt want to believe it either; i didnt want to believe the "bubble" was real and it finally popped. It hurts my poor little bullish heart to say it, but the haters were finally right this time. After the breach of the support @ 8k, i knew this wasnt just the normal 50-60% correction we were use to. And like many, I'm sure many of us got stuck holding those 50% discounted bags. However, rest assured, these bears will eat their words sooner than they think, and we will be back on our way to the moon again.
Above I have laid out a comparison between BTC & The DOTCOM Bubble. I felt it was only right to compare a bubble of this magnitude to another bubble of similar global attention and similar influence. I did not feel a comparison to one of btc's previous bubbles could map out the uncharted territory we currently find ourselves journeying through. Although on different timelines, it is evident, crypto with the help of the social media boom, is moving exponentially faster. Thus, what took the DOTCOM bubble years to recover from, I believe Bitcoin & Crypto can recover from in under a year.
With that said, there just isnt much upcoming news for btc in particular, thus i have noted the dates of the upcoming G20 meetings on my chart as possible catalysts for price movements. I feel now after garnering global attention, btc will have to endure many hurdles before we can amount the confidence to continue our next bull run. Many of these hurdles will regard regulation and how many of these countries financial leaders choose to approach crypto. If these meetings lean in favor of interest for crypto, and lack hostility, I can see this having a positive effect on bitcoins price. However, any regulation placed without the utmost care could hurt btc's growth and scare away possible new investors.
For those of you who bought too soon and still have money to invest, I would suggest placing very low buy orders @ 3kish & under to try to dollar cost average out your portfolio a bit more. That way when btc does start to make a run, you will not have to wait for btc to pass your original buy in price to start making money again. #HODL
But why 3k? The floor in my opinion is 3k. it is our first real run up away from the normal ranging btc price of 500-1500 prior to 2017, and a sturdy foundation to cushion btc's fall made evident by the amount of times price has touched this level.
Other Catalysts to watch out for but not mentioned are, Tether (if rumors are true and tether is indeed printing money without sufficient funds before the market has an alternative), and Stock Market Instability. It is no secret, the stock market will eventually crash again; when? its anyone guess. But even instability in this market could attract new investors as a hedge against these tradition investment institutions.
Comparison
Bitcoins next big sell off at 45k?My recent analysis of Silver applies across all commodities. If you are bull on Silver, Gold, Platinum then you are bear on USD. It is quite easy to be bear on USD at this time and it makes sense fundamentally as incentive for companies to return manufacturing to the USA. I have found a distinct correlation between the log scale price of BTC and USD, where USD finds resistance, the log scale price of BTC finds support and vise versa. despite the variations in drawn support for USD, one thing will be constant and that is the resistance BTC finds, whatever USD drops to and travels along as the support, both of BTC resistance lines intersect around the time USD is expected to hit support and that price is at $45K.
If you are wondering why I used a log scale for BTC its because BTC is in a different asset class. It does not behave like other commodities or other currencies. Of the cryptocurrencies, I would go as far to controversially say that bitcoin is not a cryptocurrency anymore, the transaction times are ridiculous and the sentiment is to HODL. HODL like its Gold. Owning Bitcoin in a wallet is like owning real gold, very risky when you need to get rid of it fast and this partially attributes to the lack of a proper bubble burst. The expanding market of crypto cannot be measured against other instruments in the same way. When expansion ends and the market is saturated then comparisons of BTC will really correlate to physical commodities of limited supply and sentiment.
If USD breaks keeps breaking supports then btc will keep finding resistance on the log scale. I actually believe its possible (but absolutely not guaranteed or supported by strong analysis) to hit 150k and crash to 30k in this year, where it can finally be knocked from the top spot in crypto market cap.
Top 3 Most Consistent CoinsDuring the past couple of month, the crypto market has been going through two major phases.
The first phase, that took place during December 2017, was a strong uptrend amongst most coins, substantial growth, and almost a non-stop rise.
The second phase, that took place During January 2017, was a consolidation phase, where most coins have been correcting down strongly or consolidating.
But there are coins with a better performance, that have shown great stability and consistency during both phases. While most coins were suffering they proved to be the most stable in comparison to the rest cryptocurrencies.
And the winners are:
0X
EOS
NEO
Top 5 Coins With Best Performance During ConsolidationIt was a great rally across many cryptocurrencies during the past months. There was a huge growth by some coins, gaining x10, x20, x30 or more, where most cryptocurrency traders were profiting disregarding the coin of their choice.
However, there are always times of consolidation or a correction. And this time is now. The cryptomarket is not stagnating, which means that the coin either consolidating or correcting downwards.
But it does not happen to all coins because some will be always better than others and in the idea you can see the top 5 coins that had produced the biggest gains during January consolidation period.
Bitcoin BTCUSD Bitcoin and Klondike Compared/Next Buy PointsBitcoin Weekend Update - Bitcoin and Klondike Compared - Next Buy Points
After the selling climax reached post S Korean news Bitcoin, if it was to continue acting like text-book version of how a coin
should move, was expected to rally back to the very start point of the rout and then consolidate. Overnight Bitcoin
played by the book. Actually the high on Bitstamp was 14468, some 29 points under the actual point of rout, but not bad.
This beast a proper thorough-bred. Earlier yesterday either you got stopped out at 13700 for 1000 points profit, or if using
the 'other' service which cannot be mentioned by name under threat of yet another ban (see top left of sumastardon page,
under big green S for more details of that if a Bitcoin aficionado) will have managed to exit very close to the top of
the run yesterday at just under 14150 for some 1440 points profit, or 10% of Bitcoin in 12 hours flat. We can make some
serious returns on Bitcoin without ever having to 'own' it for very long...too risky! Trading this monster is in reality way
LESS risky than owning it. Since that trade we have gone long around 13600 and lost 60 points and gone long again from
13417-13370 range with the subsequent low being struck at 13391, right in the centre of the lowest downside target, and
has since rallied overnight to retest the S Korea pre-news level to within those few points at 14437. If you closed out
close to those levels that was fine trading and another 1020 points won...so up to 2400 points 'mined' in just 44 hours or so
of frantically...twiddling our thumbs and hitting a button about 6 times. When you stop to compare the hardships we
have to endure to mine a few points/dollars from the rich seam in the sky to those faced by the men who set out to find
their dreams in, say, the Klondike gold rush it makes the head spin. The risks they took and the broken dreams they took
home with them, if they survived the ordeal, bear no comparison. They were looking for something real (gold) and
for the most part couldn't find it. We look for something 'unreal' and seem to find it everywhere. We don't have to
cross oceans and climb 'golden staircases' in deepest winter risking our very lives to find it like some of our ancestors did. Could this have been you in another age?
We can sit at home and watch Bitcoin and chill. Way more exciting than Netflix ever was or could be, no? But there's a
deep irony there too. We are so damn lucky. Do we realise it? Well we really are making it 'real' in some respects. We are
turning something that might still be unreal into something tangible and very real. Bitcoin = points = dollars. E=MC2 for
miners. And so long as we hold the dollars who cares if it's real or not? That is not our problem. Our only 'problem' is
spotting patterns in the seam and trading/mining them. That is all we should be concerned with, pretty much - as well
handling tax returns - which should be quite large unless you're planning ahead...
But back to the now, now. Bitcoin is consolidating overnight gains and now has to push on through that high from overnight and break above 14460 to really power ahead again from here, triggering the next long for 500 points to 14960 - otherwise we wait for lower values. First support is at 14081 but gets stronger at 13965-13900 range ...look to buy the dips still, Bitcoin is beginning to get back on its feet
BCH & ADA Leading the way in BTC's decline.White line is ADABTC
Red line is BCHBTC
Correlated percentage gains/loss against BTCUSD (blue layer at bottom) ... This chart layout is most valuable for assessing which coin is performing best in a given time span so you can move your holdings from a declining coins to inclining, and catch breakouts in momentum. Perfect for reorganizing a portfolio or day trading. Each coin pair is traded against BTC, so the percentage gain is relative to BTC. Zoom out to a year and you'll see that December has made BTC the #1 coin to hold long term.
IOTA compared to Ether's May 2017 RallySo, this is a completely new kind of analysis for me as I have never used the 'percent' option in the charts. I've seen posts where people have compared charts, but I can't figure out how to do so, so I apologize for the formatting. This also should not be taken as a prediction, merely a comparison of the two. In any case...
The top chart is, of course, IOTA. The one below is ETH's chart back in May of this year. I am actually unsure whether we are at the top of wave 3 or wave 5 for IOTA, so for comparison's sake will assume that it is currently at the top of its Wave 5.
Some very noticeable similarities between the two charts:
1. The rallies both took on roughly 150% gains between their second and third waves and 400% between their fourth and fifth. Both totaling 650%.
2. Wave 5 was the biggest leg. They both extended well beyond the 2.36 level .
3. The rallies both spanned roughly one month from the beginnning of wave 1 to the end of wave 5.
4. Ethereum's run was fueled heavily by news and announcements, the same currently goes for IOTA.
So, if IOTA's run is finished, we could expect a retracement back between .5 and .618. But what if we've only finished wave 3? Will IOTA see an even larger leap in its fifth wave? I sure hope so, but only time will tell. If so, we may see an ATH completely unprecedented. I don't want to even put a number on it at this point.
The one thing I do recommend is to hold if you are already holding, years if possible, and BTFD. This will likely be a huge contender for BCH's spot at number 3 and I don't doubt we will see even bigger gains in the long term.
Comments and critiques are of course welcome.
BCH/BTC comparisonBTC and BCH charts mirror eachother strongly which shows that people are trading one coin for another to multiply their holdings.
Yet Despite BTC's recent growth BCH seems to be holding it's price quite well which means not everyone is dumping their BCH for BTC.
Although the price gap between the pair seems to be widening perhaps BTC's growth also helped BCH's value.
Is this a sign of conflict between the two or harmony?
A simple view on US 10Y bond yieldsUS 10Y bond yields are at a critical support point. If broken, downward move might accelerate.
Upper consolidation zone is almost complete, there remains only a small contraction area before break-out (either downwards or upwards).
Comparing the current US 10Y bond yield and gold_ price levels with those of 8th November 2016, gold_ has recovered to day-one-value but bond yields are still much above the (1.700-1.800_) band.
Comparison of step by step movement Bitcoin vs most of AltcoinsThis describes the behavior of the majority Bitcoin vs Altcoins market movement
Please, like this idea if you agree, or comment if think differently
Good luck in trading!
Bitcoin compared to DASH, LTC and ZECHow do Dash, LTC and ZEC move against btc? Can we learn anything from their relative movements?
Orange arrows indicate the tops in altcoins which usually results in a stall or minor consolidation in btc price
Blue arrows indicate bottom of alt moves and either coincide with or lead the rise in btc price.
Check the fib retracements to check for potential bottoms. We already had a wick to 62%
New moon was on the 25th and may coincide with a local top
Painted in redDuring Bitcoin pump most altcoins was bleeded. Unfortunately, such times also comes. I got a loss in value about 30% of all actives. So, there are some rules to follow which can help you to keep the state of money
1. On the eve of serious BTC growth forget about any long positions or investing in alts, this is very dangerous!
2. Play quick games only
3. Best decision is to sell your BTC into fiat on a top of it, and forget about altcoins until they return to life. Then if you can see legible movement or recognizable patterns, feel free to enter the game again.
Please, like this idea if you agree, or comment if think differently
Good luck in trading!
BMW - VW (Correlation)Comparing the BMW chart to the VW chart it is striking that both price developments are strongly correlated to each other. Given the current spread between the two price changes in percentage, determined by using the closing price of the first day after going public, subtracting it from the current stock price and then subsequently deviding it through the first closing price, this offers us to greatly take advantage of their correlation. Obviously, it is likely that both prices are going to cross again in the future which means that all we have to do is shorting the BMW stock and buying some VW stocks in order to benefit from the decreasing spread between both prices. If we now charge both positions with the same amount of money and then close them when prices cross again, we are going to end up with 16.43% in profit.
Ethereum vs DASH comparison - Mindblowing fractal?Looking at this comparison, the chance is- based on the wonderful fractal comparison that Ethereum may breakout into new all time highs. As Ethereum currently is bouncing on its previous ATH dating back @ both March and May '16. If it is able to hold these levels, exponential growth seems plausible.
remember however, that MM's are relentless and since ETH is extremely liquid, it might need some more time before taking off (also being reliable on the current BTCC & BTCU fork situation). This however does not mean that this beautiful chart isn't one to watch closely.
WAITING FOR THE BREAK! :)
Trade cautiously & Kind regards,
Gabriel Molenkamp
Hershey's CoCo Sector Report - January 28, 2017Materials and Finance both started the week flat, moved up for a couple days, then remained steady on Friday while the US and World markets were down. If the US and World indexes are up next week I expect much from these two!
Real Estate and Consumer Staples (Non-Cyclical) were the clear Sector losers taking back all the gains they made early in the week to finish weak.
Materials had over 60 stocks > 5% for the week... compare that with Real Estate that had only 9!
Good trading!
Brian Hershey
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Check out my "Hershey's CoCo World" indicator, available now for your US stock and sector evaluations.
"CoCo World" helps to answer the following question: Is this stock moving alone or with the US and world markets? No stock is an island, so it's important to see what everyone else is doing. Useful across all time frames, small and packed with info!
Hey how, let's go! BTC to the moon!For more info and a comparison of the 5 mayor cryptocurrencies of this moment, please see steemit.com
And go long. Very long. :)
(1D) Some BREXIT contendersThis line chart is very busy, comparing a few common GBP pairs. I thought it was useful to make this comparison to see what was happening with GBP by keeping the numerator common across the lot.
Overall I find that GBP has been recovering in recent days, as BREXIT approaches. I had expected this phenomenon to occur. It does not mean that GBP will necessarily continue to strengthen after BREXIT. I cannot foretell the future.
Other thoughts on comparing instruments here .
High volatility is expected over the next 72 hours. All traders should ensure that their risk management strategies are sharpened up. The only thing you can control is your loss.