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Complexcorrection

NIFTY READY FOR NEW WAVE, COMPLETES CORRECTION PHASEAs per Elliott Waves Principles guidelines, Nifty 1.59% has completed its complex correction where two corrective patterns where formed. First was Flat correction pattern where 3 Waves (ABC) subdivdes into 5-3-5 correction (marked as W) and another is simple zig-zag correction where 3 Waves (ABC) subdivides 5-3-5 (marked as Y). Both were connected by inverted Zig-zag three waves pattern (marked as X) This above complex correction completes the corrective phase of the previous wave and now we could see another 5 uptrending Waves. Go Bulls, Go Bullish
NSE:NIFTYLong
by NeeteshJain
3
NZDUSD complex correctionI know this chart is a mess! but that's because complex corrective patterns are mess and they can form variety of combinations for long time; but eventually one of these waves is the final one and price will finish the corrective phase and start an extremely impulsive and trendy wave which non of us want to miss it, so we have to risk and take trades in each wave that can be the last wave of corrective phase. This wave which is about to end, is one of those potential final waves. The major idea of trade is that the whole daily correction is ending and price is going for an impulsive wave to downside (orange or red arrows), but if the waves coming out of triangle behave corrective, it's a sign that corrective phase has not finished yet and there will be waves to upside. (green arrows and green text boxes) About green text boxes: If price tend to reverse upside and continue corrective phase, it's not necessary to do it on the trendlines, there are not support and resistance, but the probability to do it on the trendlines is higher
Short
by ard3413
Kiwi Prepares For Double Dose of Central Banks - 6700 Key LevelOn Wednesday afternoon (or Thursday morning in the Eastern part of the world), we have 2 central bank rate announcements within a couple hours time; 1) FOMC, 2) RBNZ.. This post is meant to assess the wave patterns prior to the news with key levels in focus. The bigger picture pattern we've been tracking is a W-X-Y dating back to 2011. This is a big pattern to the downside that doesn't appear finished yet. According to the wave labels above, it appears we are in circle 'v' of red C of (Y). Heading into the end of year holidays, short traders closed out their positions and we saw a small build up in longs. This shifted the FXCMSSI reading into positive territory. The current reading sits at +1.14 which isn't an extreme reading. However, when the reading was positive for most of the 2000 pip downtrend since the summer of 2014, this may set the table for another down trend. Keep track of live FXCMSSI here . As the labels are placed above, we are looking to short any strength coming from the pair with a break above the blue trend line to cause for a pause. I wouldn't be surprised to see the pair push up into the .66 handle and perhaps the double dose of central bank rate announcements will do it. Conservative risk on the trade can be placed above 6890. If prices do push above there, it may signal that wave (Y) finished in August 2015 and that another (X) leg is grinding higher. Good luck and happy trading!
Short
by JWagnerFXTrader
9
GBPJPY Tags Measured Waves - Higher Probability of Sell OffLast night, the Bank of Japan announced negative interest rates which made for a weaker Yen driving the GBPJPY higher. Last week, we anticipated a move up to the 174 region and now that we are there AND we have the BOJ driving negative interest rates, do we continue higher or is this it? When assessing the intraday charts, there is a strong confluence of wave relationships in the 173.35-174 region. This suggests an elevated opportunity for a 300 pip sell back toward the purple support line. The Elliott Wave labels on the chart suggest an even deeper fall back towards 166. Let's take it one step at a time right now and see how this behaves as it approaches support near 169-170. Feel free to check out DailyFX's Q1 Yen Forecast HERE . Lastly, I would like to put a big shout out and THANK YOU to the TradingView webinar attendees yesterday. TradingView is an excellent host and we did manage to get off topic a few times which makes it fun too. There were some fantastic questions. Many were asking for a recording of the webinar which can be found here - www.youtube.com I would like to highlight one question by Kyle who hasn't been profitable on his demo asking when should he go live. The answer was provided during the 1:02:25 to 1:06:56 mark of the video. Check out the notes section of the youtube video for the links referenced in the video. Have a blessed weekend!
Short
by JWagnerFXTrader
6
Long AUDNZD: Possible Triangle Completion, Cypher to Enter LongAUDNZD has completed the "e" leg of an expanding triangle in a complex triple three correction. Triangles commonly mark the end of a three wave reactionary wave and thus an upcoming bullish move may be impending. A possible cypher will make for an optimal entry long. In the case of the triangle continuing to 2 or 4 additional three wave moves off of the barriers, target one will be taken near the top of the triangle. If price indicates impulsive action through the top of the triangle, the pair is likely to complete the (c) wave on one higher degree. T2 is placed at the peak of (a). SL is placed below Cypher X point, with entry at .786XA. If cypher entry is not triggered, entry will be taken on the break of the trendline.
Long
by glennmercer
2
Sentiment Shifts Back Towards Bears Providing a Bullish SignalTomorrow morning, the US Non-Farm Payroll report will be released which could create some volatility for the USDollar. Today's post is meant to provide a frame work of levels to monitor so when the news is released, we can follow our own plan rather than getting emotionally driven by the market. After careful study of the price action since early December, there are 2 elliott wave counts we are following. We are favoring the bullish count as the sub-waves match up cleaner. This implies a medium term bullish outlook in that a red circle wave iii higher started from yesterday or will do so over the coming days. Breaking above the purple trend channel and moving above 1.0950 is key to increasing the odds we are in red circle wave iii higher. See the pre-NFP post we made from early December for the longer term wave labels. Yes, that bullish count would imply a break above 1.1090 which we've highlighted as a critical level for bears and would suggest a retest of 1.17. Perhaps the wave count is providing us an early warning signal of the move. The alternate count is a bearish count and is noted in orange. The sub-waves don't line up as well, but it is still being considered. Sentiment is tracking nicely for the long count. We were a little concerned on January 5 that sentiment was providing a mild bearish signal. However, it has now flipped to providing a mild bullish signal since the current reading is -1.27. Through the NFP release tomorrow, watch the real time sentiment reading to provide clues about the near term direction. If the reading grows more negative, look for prices to move higher. If the reading moves more positive, look for prices to fall. Watch sentiment in real time HERE . Happy Trading!
Long
by JWagnerFXTrader
9
GBPJPY Wave (iii) Lower - 186.30 key levelThe pivot lower in the GBPJPY has been on the back burner as the EURUSD collapsed last week. It appears we have a leading diagonal lower in circle '1' that began on the Friday October 23 high. Coincidentally, we are showing Oct 23 as the highest volume day in over 5 years for the GBPJPY. If circle wave '3' finished at today's low, then a small bounce higher is likely to be contained below 185. The higher probability scenario is what I have labeled on the chart. That is to say we are in the beginning stages of wave (iii) lower that may carry us towards 178 and possibly lower to 173. Retail sentiment is positioned at -1.3 so it is not extreme in either direction. If we see volume pick up and/or retail sentiment show up as buyers then that could add more fuel to the bearish fire. Good luck and happy trading!
Short
by JWagnerFXTrader
4
2 Clusters of Wave Relationships - 1.1400 and 1.1455 for ShortsWith the ECB prepared to announce their next round of genious analysis and monetary policy tomorrow morning, let's take a moment and assess the Elliott Wave picture for EURUSD. As we will do from time to time, we'll identify key levels to watch prior to news being released to establish the game plan before emotions run high. From a bigger picture, the sell off from late August to early Sept 2015 is a 5 wave move. Due to its position, that 5 wave move needs at least one other 5 wave decline to match it. So from a bigger picture perspective, the Aug 24, 2015 high will likely hold until we retest levels near the 1.04 handle. Shorter term, there are 2 different clusters of wave relationships showing up near 1.1400 and 1.1455 (see tan boxes above). I am showing either level as the end of a smaller degree red circle wave '2'. Either of these points could be a pivot level to launch the next round of selling. The selling since yesterday's high appears to be a correction and therefore I'm leaning towards higher levels to short rallies from. Your comments are appreciated.
Short
by JWagnerFXTrader
4
EURUSD Pivots Near 1.1330 Wave Confluence This pop higher on the Fed minutes may be enough to put the finishing touches on a minor corrective wave higher. There is a confluence of wave relationships near 1.1308-1.1340. 61.8% of the Sept 18-22 down trend = 1.1323 (c) = (a) = 1.1317 Blue corrective channel trend line = 1.1340 Wave y = .618 * w = 1.1308 Therefore, we are anticipating another down leg of similar proportion (or greater) than the Sept 18-22 move (350 pips). That would place an initial zone near 1.1000...a nice round number. Sentiment is -1.45 and hasn't moved much over the past few days. It's not a real extreme figure. If prices do bound higher out of this price zone, the next level of resistance is 1.1380-90. Happy Trading!
Short
by JWagnerFXTrader
8
Placing the finishing touches on a bounce - 1.15 key levelThe sell off from this morning has popped outside of the purple channel. Therefore, it appears to be a smaller degree wave 'x' and we are working on a wave 'y' higher. Based on wave relationships, this places a potential reaction zone in the 1.14-1.15 area. This runs a similar pattern to the GBPUSD we wrote about last week. Traders can place their risk above the Aug 24 high while targeting new lows below 1.08. There is an alternate view that suggests we are in a larger degree (X) wave that likely digs deeper. A move above 1.15 will enhance this count. Sentiment is running with net sellers going into the FOMC meeting tomorrow. Be mindful of your trade size as volatility is likely to pick up. Good luck!
by JWagnerFXTrader
33
GBPUSD Alternate Bullish View to 1.6000Please read this post while also reviewing the intraday GBPUSD posted earlier today. This post on the Daily Chart shows an alternate bullish view. My preference is the 3rd wave bearish view listed on the 180 min chart, but we need to keep this one in mind as well. A meaningful push above 1.5650 will elevate this count on route to a 1.6000 retest. I have noted at the top a sequence of 3's and 5's. I can count out a 5 wave down from June 18 to July 8, but it is not the cleanest of moves. It could also be considered a three. Therefore, we have to consider alternate counts if the move in question is a 3. I have found it helpful to label out the sequence above the chart, then like a masterpiece jigsaw puzzle, begin to work the combinations.
by JWagnerFXTrader
5