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Macro Monday 34 ~ S&P PMI Composite FlashMacro Monday 34 S&P PMI Composite Flash This S&P PMI “Flash” Composite is a very useful and relatively new data set made available since Nov 2013 that is particularly useful at providing an advance indication of the ISM Purchasing Managers Index (ISM PMI Index) which is released a week later. We are aware from prior Macro Mondays that the ISM PMI index is based on data collected through surveys of over 800 companies in the U.S. and covers variables such as sales, new orders, employment, inventories and prices, all of which give us an indication of trends in the economy. S&P Flash Composite Main Benefits 1. The term "Flash" in the name refers to the fact that it is a preliminary or early quick estimate of the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) which is released later in the month. For example this month the S&P Flash Composite is released this week on Thursday 22nd Feb whilst the final ISM PMI reading is released Friday 1st March (both readings are for the month of Feb). 2. The S&P PMI Composite Flash is a “composite” insofar as it combines both the manufacturing and services sectors PMI’s into a single index. This provides a more comprehensive overview of economic activity compared to looking at either sector in isolation (however you can also view the flash PMI for Services and Manufacturing separately, these are released on the same day). So the S&P PMI Composite Flash consists of two main components: 1. Manufacturing PMI: Measures economic activity in manufacturing. 2. Services PMI: Measures economic activity in the services sector. Both components are based on surveys of purchasing managers and provide insights into factors like new orders, production, and employment. The Composite PMI combines these components to offer an overall picture of economic health, with readings above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction. How do we get an advance “FLASH” PMI reading and how reliable is it? The main difference between the data used in the S&P PMI Composite Flash and the final PMI figures lies in the sample size(smaller) and timing (earlier release with most recent data exclusion). According to Investopedia and a report from S&P Global Flash (Jan 2023), the Flash Composite PMI release is based on about 85% of total PMI survey responses each month. Clearly, a significant portion of survey responses are included in the Flash PMI which would lead you to believe that its reliable early indicator but how reliable has it been historically? In the aforementioned S&P Global Report it also provided the historical average difference between the flash and final PMI index values (final minus flash) since comparisons were first available, which are; Composite Difference = 0.1 Manufacturing Difference = 0.0 Services Difference = 0.2 We can see that the Manufacturing Flash PMI release readings are the most reliable and that the Services Flash PMI is less reliable. Whilst both are not far off the mark, it’s a notable difference for services considering that services represents over 80% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), thus small differences in services hold more weight. Regardless, we can be relatively satisfied that the S&P PMI Composite Flash Index is a very good and reliable early indicator of the Final ISM PMI. I will certainly be looking at this metric going forward so that I can have a great early indication of the ISM PMI. When you review the chart of the Flash PMI with the Final PMI, you'll see that the difference appears greater than the marginal difference discussed above. This highlights, how on a chart, the difference a week or a weeks worth of data can make to how a chart appears (with the absent or included 15% of data). You will also notice that the Flash PMI is more volatile with higher and lower swings. It reminds me a little of the CPI headline vs CPI core chart in this respect, as both ultimately move in the same direction but one oscillates less than the other. I hope the next Flash PMI released this Thursday 22nd Feb will help arm you with what is very reliable early indication of the ISM PMI (released a week later on the 1st March). Thanks for coming along PUKA
ECONOMICS:USCOMPPMI
by PukaCharts
AI Shaping the Market Landscape of 2030-sDear @TradingView , Today, I would like to share some observations regarding the S&P Composite index that highlight a repeatable market cycle. It is evident that this cycle consists of a 30-20 year period of Economic Growth, followed by a subsequent phase of 15-10 years characterized by Downturn or Sideways movement. By examining the historical data, we can identify patterns that shed light on the cyclical nature of the market. Throughout history, the market has experienced periods of significant economic expansion, often driven by transformative inventions and advancements. These innovations, such as sailing, engines, railroads, electricity, medicine, computers, the internet, smartphones, fertilizer, and artificial intelligence, have played pivotal roles in shaping positive market trends. Each breakthrough has had a profound impact on various industries, driving productivity, and spurring economic growth. Sailing: Pioneering Global Trade (Timeline: Ancient Times) Sailing, one of humanity's earliest inventions, opened up new avenues for exploration and trade. The ability to traverse vast distances by sea connected civilizations, facilitated the exchange of goods, and laid the foundation for early economic systems. Engines: Powering Industrial Revolution (Timeline: 18th-19th Century) The invention of steam engines during the Industrial Revolution revolutionized manufacturing and transportation. Steam-powered engines enabled the mass production of goods and led to the creation of railways, powering economic growth and fostering global trade networks. Railroads: Connecting Nations (Timeline: 19th Century) The advent of railroads marked a monumental shift in transportation. The construction of railway networks facilitated efficient movement of goods and people, enabling rapid industrialization and spurring economic development across continents. Fertilizer: Revolutionizing Agriculture (Timeline: 19th Century) The development and widespread use of fertilizers marked a significant turning point in agricultural practices. During the 19th century, scientists discovered the importance of essential nutrients for plant growth. The invention of chemical fertilizers allowed farmers to replenish soil nutrients, thereby increasing crop yields and transforming agricultural productivity. The widespread adoption of fertilizers revolutionized global food production, ensuring food security and supporting population growth. Electricity: Illuminating a New Era (Timeline: Late 19th Century) The discovery and harnessing of electricity ushered in a new era of innovation and productivity. Electric power revolutionized industries, enabling the mass production of consumer goods, while also transforming communication and lighting systems, contributing to economic growth. Medicine: Advancing Healthcare (Timeline: 20th Century) Medical advancements, such as vaccines, antibiotics, and improved surgical techniques, have significantly improved public health and increased life expectancy. These breakthroughs not only saved lives but also led to increased productivity and economic stability. Computers: Automation and Digital Revolution (Timeline: 20th Century) The invention of computers and subsequent advancements in computing technology revolutionized the way we work, communicate, and process information. Automation, data analysis, and improved efficiency in various sectors led to increased productivity and the emergence of new industries. The Internet: Global Connectivity (Timeline: Late 20th Century) The internet, a transformative invention of the late 20th century, connected the world in an unprecedented manner. It facilitated the exchange of information, enabled e-commerce, and transformed communication. The internet played a pivotal role in the emergence of new business models and industries, driving market growth. Smartphones: Empowering Connectivity (Timeline: 21st Century) Smartphones revolutionized the way we access information, communicate, and interact with the world. These handheld devices amalgamated various technologies, such as internet connectivity, computing power, and applications, making them indispensable tools for personal and business use. The widespread adoption of smartphones led to significant advancements in mobile technology and transformed industries such as e-commerce, social media, and digital entertainment. Artificial Intelligence (AI): Shaping the Future (Timeline: Present) Artificial intelligence has emerged as a game-changer in recent years, with applications spanning across industries. AI algorithms and machine learning techniques are driving automation, data analysis, and predictive capabilities, enhancing productivity and enabling the development of innovative solutions. AI continues to revolutionize industries such as writing, coding, finance, security, manufacturing, and transportation, driving market growth and shaping the future of various sectors. Throughout history, transformative inventions and advancements have played crucial roles in shaping the market landscape. The S&P Composite index serves as a valuable tool to gauge market performance and track these cycles over time. By analyzing the historical movements of the index, we can observe the repetitive pattern of prolonged Economic Growth, typically spanning around 30-20 years. During this phase, the market experiences upward trends driven by innovation, increasing productivity, and expanding global trade. However, it is important to recognize that these periods of growth are not indefinite. As history has shown, there comes a point when the market enters a phase of Downturn or Sideways movement, lasting approximately 15-10 years. This phase is characterized by market corrections, global wars, economic recessions, or periods of depression, where the market may exhibit increased volatility and limited overall growth. Sincerely Artem Shevelev
TVC:SPX
by ArShevelev
1
$DEFI/USDT 1h (Binance Futures)Falling broadening wedge breakoutDeFi Composite Index looks good for bullish continuation after regaining 50MA support. More information about Decentralized Finance tokens on www.binance.com Current Price= 2365.6 Buy Entry = 2369.3 - 2343.5 Take Profit= 2444.6 | 2518.6 | 2616.1 Stop Loss= 2282.6 Risk/Reward= 1:1.2 | 1:2.2| 1:3.52 Expected Profit= +22.44% | +41.28% | +66.12% Possible Loss= -18.76% Fib. Retracement= 0.618 | 0.786 | 1 Margin Leverage= 6x Estimated Gain-time= 1 week
Long
by TradingOn
SMGR TO THE MOON! UPSIDE UPTO 50%! DOUBE BOTTOM POTENTIAL ALERT!3T6 MONTH SWING TRADE SMGR! BUY IF BREAK AND CLOSE ABOVE 8500! SUPPORT = 7675 and CL IF CLOSE <7675! SMGR or PT Semen Indonesia Tbk, commonly known as Semen Indonesia Group, is an Indonesian cement company established in 1957 in Gresik, with the name NV Semen Gresik. In 1991, PT Semen Gresik was the first state-owned company to go public on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. As a governent company, I think investor and swing trader should consider SMGR. Because, the risk and rewards are so good enough. If you see the volume distribution that happened on last year 2020 (I already circled the volume bar), I think this year is same. And now, maybe there are many people ask me about their cost operation. The way of coal upside maybe increase their cost because the cost of cement 35% is made by coal. But, you should consider that SMGR have their own coal mining, which is, SMGR already prepare for the worst of expensive coal. And also, SMGR not only use coal for their production. They also use new renewable energy called BIOMASSA. So, what do you afraid of? The risk is very minimum maybe 3-5% to the bottom, but the upside for the government company is very good upto 50%! REMEMBER THAT THIS IS GOVERNMENT COMPANY!!! THE GOVERNMENT WONT STAY QUIET FOR THIS COMPANY! THE BIGGEST CEMENT FACTORY IN INDONESIA! GBU AND HAPPY WEEKEND!
IDX:SMGR
by jordijo18
$DEFI/USDT 6h (Binance Futures) Rising wedge breakdown & retestDeFi index lost 50MA support that was holding the up-trend and finally broke bearish. Now retesting the wedge, seems like retracement is in play short-term before resuming bullish again! Current Price= 2476.9 Sell Entry = 2495.9 - 2616.9 Take Profit= 2263.2 | 1986.6 | 1790.0 Stop Loss= 2810.3 Risk/Reward= 1:1.15 | 1:2.24 | 1:3.02 Expected Profit= +22.94% | +44.58% | +59.96% Possible Loss= -19.86% Fib. Retracement= 0.382 | 0.382 | 0.5 Margin Leverage= 2x Estimated Gain-time= 3 weeks
Short
by TradingOn
Long Hope for IDX Composite (IHSG)**Market Action DIscount Everything** I got an idea based on price action analysis that JKSE (IHSG) would still maintain their bullish biases (momentum). We would see that the market formed a falling wedge pattern from 21st Jan of this year 'till this time, indicating that this market would make a continuation on their bullish trend. This signal was also confluenced by the order block on 20 Nov 'till 02 Dec 20 that remain a liquidity zone for the price, since we got 2 price rejection on 01 Feb and 20 May on this year. The last but not least, we may see that this market would reach their target price @7000 as their all time high price based on fibonacci external retracement cluster. Short term note: Since we see that the market formed a mini raising wedge pattern on the edge of the faliing wedge, i expect that we gonna get a minor price correction before the market price goes high to the expected target. Regards, Happy Cuan
INDEX:COMPOSITELong
by danandyo
Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG)- Shall the Downtrend Continues?Hi, Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) has been on the downtrend for the last one month. If we look at the chart, we can find a double top which the support has been breached and become a resistance. The Index has just tested the resistance and pull back which can signal a possible downtrend. The key points for a further down will be : 1. Covid 19 Vaccination has started in Indonesia. However, there are areas in the country refusing to receive the doses; 2. Indonesian companies are subjected to release their 2020 full year audited financial report which is assumed not to be in a good performance; 3. Bank Indonesia is going to announce the interest rate. Remember, The trendline might be breached. As long as it is not, I am going to stay liquid. Happy Investing!
IDX:COMPOSITEShort
by TheWallPipsJournal