$DNA Possible Accumulation. Fib levels very reactive.A pretty compelling argument for a classic Wyckoff Accumulation pattern. We know some people like Woods are investing heavily into this market, so it's not a long shot to assume there are others. Whether we see a spring or LPS our way up to SOS is TBD, we could shoot in either direction as it stands. PTs are at $7-$15 according to analysts. This seems to line up with extensions. OBV shows each consecutive low on the PA is higher on the OBV. This is a great indication of an increase of strong hands ownership. Overall, I think I am mostly bullish at the current level. Should we happen to dip lower for a spring, I will significantly add to my position.
Compositeman
TSLA G3 DUMP? Markets bounced strong today... but will Tsla join or be the one to take the hit so the other stocks can run?
TSLA had a Rough Day I'll Keep this simple..
Here are my thoughts on Distribution Schematic:
114% Bull Run in 1 Month - Mainly Short-Squeeze Move
We could see one more move up in a Wyckoff fashion - this will burn the $200 call options along with all the puts added in past 2 days, setting up a Bear Trap and generating more FOMO for Bull Trap 3 thus providing Liquidity for "Composite Man" to make the most $$$
-I also believe that a Markdown is needed for Institutional Buyers to get back into the stock @ lower pricing.
Both Scenarios are viable, yet I'm leaning towards#1 .. but will be prepared to go with the trend.
Long-Term Bull/ Short-Term Bear
good Trading Today
Controlling Bitcoin: The Composite Operator?The Composite Operator.
"…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it."
Most market people tend to scoff at the idea that there is some kind of illuminati running the markets. They say "you're never bigger than the market".
I will just deal with one piece of evidence, in the image cap.
Just 2204 accounts, a lot of which are owned by the same people, CONTROL 41.87% of the supply.
===============================================
So, even if you don't think the Composite Operator exists, you have to admit that it is very definitely doable, isn't it?
They could use just 10% of that to push the price where they want, like water in the bath. Give it a bit of a shove when it is running nicely, stop and reverse when they know it's right.
If they don't know how, I could show them. In fact, call me guys, I'm open to offers.
Read this next:
Follow me for more, please. Get the right side of the trade.
Bitcoin Volume TransactionThis laterely the biggest #volume transacted in the the history of #bitcoin obviously they can't hide their activity with volume ( There is an #iceberg order ) Sitting on the #ASK absorbing all the buyers activities it is early to say we reached the #DIP , Laddies and gentelman we have a #Compositeman situation here
BTC worst case scenario forecastThis situation is very likely to play out on BTCUSDT pair. Looking at this doom triangle and all the uncertainty in the market this is most likely going to result in a crash after breakout.
Some hope for holders: This setup is so clear and logical and I see alot of people post about it, now look at it from the perspective of the composite man/market maker. How will he make the most money? By doing exactly the opposite. Give the traders a triangle breakout to the downside so they load some more short positions. At the same time market maker will be filling long positions ready to crush all retail traders. Give them a false breakout and then rally towards all time high. This whole situation can be seen as an accumulation phase.
Bitcoin Reaccumulation still in playI saw sort of a similar idea on twitter a couple weeks ago and i found it very interesting so i started looking at it myself.
Even though there is alot of different wyckoff schematics, i picked out just a single one who looks alot like the bitcoin chart.
(notice the creek being formed right now)
In a re-accumulation it's important to look at the volume and the volatility of the market. At around 65k we had lots of volatility and volume (check volume indicator on the bottom of the chart). But when we came down towards ressitance and further formed the schematic, volatility and volume started to diminsh. We had one push up where we made a higher high and touched resistance ($69k), where hardly any volume showed.
To confirm this schematic we will need to wait for a jump across the creek to form (with significant volume and volatility shown) & create significant higher highs then $65k & $69k.
bitcoin to $30k ?I'm a complete bitcoin bull, but when i look at the higher time frame chart through institutional eyes, i can't help but notice this scenario.
Close to all retail is waiting for one last bounce towards $40,5k, so they can fill their bags for the rallies ahead. But this makes me look at all the liquidity below the lows (on chart).
I feel like the large institutions will likely send bitcoin below these lows just to scare and liquidate the retailers. Possibly come down towards the bottom orderblock so they can mitigate their positions.
Not in this chart but also noticable, still large amount of supply / volume between $28k and $40k.
This scenario would not only scare the bulls by dropping below $40,5k...
It would also scare the bears since all of them are looking at the larger time frame head and shoulders pattern which wouldn't play out either...
(larger head and shoulders pattern has a target of around $24k, depending on how you draw it)
HOOD might move out the HoodI know we've all been told to stay away from HOOD and if you didn't you got rekt'd (me, down -%35, sold for loss)
BUT with the little knowledge i understand about Wychoff Theory we might see a Huge reversal.
I believe we could have another big shakeout IF we get another
Volume and Price action diverging (price action going down, volume ramping up)
After we get an explosive pump in our spring we should have another retest around $20.30 and maybe finally moon
Discloser, i dont have a position in HOOD, like i said i took the L (-%35, 30 shares averaged around @ $42 ish, ouch)
took that loss into AMC to open my first position at the Dec. dip already made my money back.
i would %90 open a new Position in Hood but im dead broke
cheers
BTC market manipulation: you have 48hrs to respond.Trading Disclaimer:
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How Much More Can Retail Take?Both my partner @Mayfair_Ventures and myself have written plenty on this subject, see here:
and here:
and here:
and here:
Let's all remember that the Composite Man is just watching with a wry smile. He already knows what will happen. Even if he doesn't actively play the game it will head his way, and all he has to do is give it a playful push at the right time to get it rolling.
Try not to get caught playing against the feller. He WILL own you. Buying every rally and selling every dip because each one looks like the definitive move? You are not alone. Be patient, don't be left carrying the boulder.
Investing in Crypto can be tricky, and trading it on margin even more so. There IS more downside to come, so clean and oil your weapons and wait. While the price remains sub $36500 we remain medium term bearish.
Long term we are bullish of BTC and the alts. There will be another run, but if you are not careful it will be just after you get stopped out and liquidated.
Wait until this phase is over. We will be here telling you when we think it's over, so just keep an eye on us.
The Parable of the Shiny ObjectThe Parable of the Shiny Object
One day the Shiny Object was invented by a clever person. It was picked up by other clever people who noticed it was very shiny indeed. They declared that it could be the saviour of the financial market. It will end corruption, create a lower-fee environment, and have no means to be manipulated by government banks. It was amazing and extremely shiny.
It couldn’t be broken, so it didn’t ever need to be repaired. It could be bought and sold if you wanted, or even dug out of the earth with sufficient effort.
A few years passed without that many people seeing how shiny it was. Then suddenly there was a craze for it, but most of the financial world looked away, saying it wasn’t all that shiny by THEIR standards. This was deliberate. The financial people were scared of the new Shiny Object, and they hadn’t yet worked out how to make money from it, so they said it was as dull as a rusty spoon and was worthless. The Shinyrati that had got all excited went back to their basements. Then it kind of went dark for a while.
The financial world had bought itself time to think about it a bit, and decided it was no different from any of the previous shiny objects that it had made money from. Now the banks and funds finally knew exactly what to do. They would simply do what they have always done.
They invested heavily in Shiny Objects while still saying that they were useless and worthless, then they created funds and marketplaces just like they always had with every previous shiny object they had ever seen, and spread the word to their “special” clients that there was something in the Shiny Objects after all, sold them some, and told them not to tell anyone, just like a little fundraise for a new company.
It was a tried and tested pattern; it had worked pretty much every time in the past. Nothing new here…
Of course, their special clients couldn’t resist bragging about the shininess of their new investment, after all, they had to explain to their clients why they had invested in this new thing, and how the bankers are pretty shrewd so it’s likely a great idea and after all, these are pretty shiny, these Shiny Objects.
The financial world then chose to point out that there were loads of copycat shiny objects too, and all of them were amazing, and lots of them had limited supply. They announced that they were, after all, going to take an interest in Shiny Objects. There was going to be a bull run. Government-driven inflation won’t affect this. Word got around and like selling shovels in a gold rush, more and more businesses stepped in to take advantage of the new markets. They started marketing to retail customers, and reddit apes, who were having loads of fun blowing up hedge funds and were on the lookout for a new toy to send “to da moon”.
The pace of the rush made it even more attractive, just like they knew it would.
It was a tried and tested pattern; it had worked pretty much every time in the past. Nothing new here…
Times were good for Shiny Objects.
The price of Shiny Objects rose and rose, and it was time for the financial people to take some profits. They had LOADS of shiny objects, and they sold them as fast as they could into the storm of gold-diggers. Dow called this the Distribution Phase.
It was a tried and tested pattern; it had worked pretty much every time in the past. Nothing new here…
Now it was time. They had sold all their objects and the game needed resetting, so they reached into the same old playbook for the next move. They told their friends that it was all overblown like tulips in the 1630s and it could end in tears. They reminded their government friends that the object was actually very rusty and in fact could give people a nasty injury if not controlled. The news feeds turned sour and a panic ensued as some people who had borrowed to ride the Shiny Object rocket had to cut and run. The price of Shiny Objects dropped. Diamond hands stepped in and arrested the decline. Now the market was in balance.
It was a tried and tested pattern; it had worked pretty much every time in the past. Nothing new here…
The rest of the market rose and fell, each drop looked like the end of the world, each rally looked like it was “to da moon”. The prices were still too high for the financial world, so it sat on its hands. It prefers wholesale prices, thank you very much. It would tip the scales when it felt like it. Letting the whole market rally back up to make retail investors rich was simply unthinkable. Biding their time had worked in the past, no reason not to simply just sit and wait for prices to get down to a more acceptable level for them. No coincidence that the levels they were thinking about were not at all acceptable for the retail investors caught long in the trap. They would eventually give up. They always did.
It was a tried and tested pattern; it had worked pretty much every time in the past. Nothing new here…
Guess what happened next….
Clue: Dow called it the Accumulation Phase.
Quoting from the novel “Bombardiers” by Po Bronson:
“The information economy was a Ponzi scheme spiralling out of control. The investment bankers got rich slaving away, so they called in their tax accountants, who got so rich filing government forms that they called their investment bankers back for advice about where to invest their surging wealth. The investment bankers were also miserable, so they called their therapists who billed them by the hour to listen like a good friend and assure them they weren’t crazy. They worked so hard they neglected their families, so many of which ended up in divorce. They called their divorce lawyers. The lawyers worked even harder than the investment bankers and suffered physical maladies that the doctors charged them ridiculous fees to attempt to cure. The doctors, worried about being sued by the lawyers, called their insurance brokers for malpractice coverage. The engineers built computer systems that helped to speed up this cycle so they could call and bill at a faster pace. The engineers that didn’t build computers worked in the military industry at the request of the politicians, who were worried the Iranians might invade Florida. The politicians kept changing the laws so the lawyers could keep busy, and they kept changing the tax code so the accountants could keep busy, and they kept borrowing money to keep the investment money bankers busy. This was the Third Law of Information Economics at work, and it was the way of the future.”
Monero undervalued against ETH and BTC: Accumulation time?Out of all the crypto currencies out there few things have a better use case than XMR. Unless you are some sort of bank robber all the fiat you spend is anonymous because you are not important enough to track serial numbers on. The $50 you got for a gift either in cash or a giftcard isn't tracked in some immutable ledger like bitcoin, it doesn't show up in you bank account, and you don't have to have people wondering why you bought certain things. Why did this guy buy rope all of a sudden? Why is he buying silver and gold? She bought cough syrup, is she really sick?
This anonymous value is inherent in paper money and the same value keeps XMR hovering around the 15th position on coinmarketcap as other coins of the moment have meteoric rises to the top 10 and then peter out. Any piece of garbage can go to zero and the bollinger bands would be meaningless. But with something with a real world use case like Monero when something is out of the month or weekly bollinger band it it time to either accumulate or watch for the recovery if you want to be a value investor.
This whole thing looks like a set up to a Wycoffian accumulation. So far we have a potential selling climax as well as an automatic reaction. From here value investors would be looking to slowly accumulate as to not pump the price too much and they will be buying the lower part of this formation. The chart below is the great dump bitcoin had in 2018. Price went below the weekly bollinger band and had a selling climax and automatic reaction( I haven't labeled every wycoffian event). One thing to notice is we didn't have a spring (or W pattern) on this time frame. On this chart there was one secondary test and that was it. Monero might have several secondary tests of the trading range and might even have a terminal shakeout. If you don't know what that means go here:https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method or run the risk of staying poor.
Based on this I am looking to be a composite man. I will buy XMR when I see it against any of the bollinger bands on the chart below; Either ETH, BTC, or USD. Since I see eth beating btc over the course of the bull run I will use the ETH and USD charts more than I use the XMRBTC charts. There may or may not be a terminal shake out, I will just have to stick to the plan and accumulate.
If history is any indicator when accumulation is done Monero will pump with a fury against both BTC and USD. The chart below shows the accumulation and when it broke resistance there was a massive one day gain in Monero. This chart also shows that Monero is testing previous resistance as support for XMRBTC. Last time it took a year for accumulation to occur for XMRBTC. This isn't a post for traders, this is a post for investors and people with the discipline to act like the composite man.
Composite Man EUR/USDFX:EURUSD
Saturday Chart Analysis
Welcome all you data enthusiasts, this is my bias for the week to come. November 8-13, 2020 I am predicting a correction before and impulse to occur. I have three opinions for what might occur in the pair come market open.
Have a wonderful weekend fellow humans.
EURUSDBias was correct for yesterday and wish to continue the correction before the buying bias. In the case we break past the supply on the daily marked by the last arrow I would like to hold sells. However in the case we reject nicely with incentive I will automatically move with the bulls. Looking for one last sell for the week. Lets see what the market has to offer
EURUSDBias for going long has been held temporarily due to structure on the daily time frame showing weakness on the bulls. A lot of time has gone by in consolidation to give us a hint of a big move to the down side to occur. This is if we move upward past liquidity marked up to then move downward to 50% of the fib on the weekly. London will be revisited, that is the bias.